Search

Objectives: An early diagnosis of intensive care unit-acquired weakness (ICU-AW) is often not possible due to impaired consciousness. To avoid a diagnostic delay, we previously developed a prediction model, based on single-center data from 212 patients (development cohort), to predict ICU-AW at 2 days after ICU admission. The objective of this study was to investigate the external validity of the original prediction model in a new, multicenter cohort and, if necessary, to update the model., Methods: Newly admitted ICU patients who were mechanically ventilated at 48 hours after ICU admission were included. Predictors were prospectively recorded, and the outcome ICU-AW was defined by an average Medical Research Council score <4. In the validation cohort, consisting of 349 patients, we analyzed performance of the original prediction model by assessment of calibration and discrimination. Additionally, we updated the model in this validation cohort. Finally, we evaluated a new prediction model based on all patients of the development and validation cohort., Results: Of 349 analyzed patients in the validation cohort, 190 (54%) developed ICU-AW. Both model calibration and discrimination of the original model were poor in the validation cohort. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC-ROC) was 0.60 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.54-0.66). Model updating methods improved calibration but not discrimination. The new prediction model, based on all patients of the development and validation cohort (total of 536 patients) had a fair discrimination, AUC-ROC: 0.70 (95% CI: 0.66-0.75)., Conclusions: The previously developed prediction model for ICU-AW showed poor performance in a new independent multicenter validation cohort. Model updating methods improved calibration but not discrimination. The newly derived prediction model showed fair discrimination. This indicates that early prediction of ICU-AW is still challenging and needs further attention.

Background: Intensive care unit-acquired weakness (ICU-AW) is a common complication of critical illness and is associated with increased mortality, longer mechanical ventilation and longer hospital stay. Little is known about the causes of mortality in patients with ICU-AW. In this study, we aimed to give an overview of the causes of death in a population diagnosed with ICU-AW during hospital admission., Methods: Data from a prospective cohort study in the mixed medical-surgical ICU of the Academic Medical Center in Amsterdam were used. Patients were included when mechanically ventilated for more than 48 hours. Intensive care unit-acquired weakness was defined as a mean medical research council score <4. Baseline data and data on the time of death were collected., Results: Fifty-three patients were included. Irreversible shock with multiple organ failure (MOF) was the most common cause of death (28/53 of patients; 26 patients with septic shock and 2 patients with hypovolemic shock). Most common site of sepsis was abdominal (38.5%) and pulmonary (19.2%). On admission to the ICU, 53% had a do-not-resuscitate code. In 74% of the patients, further treatment limitations were implemented during their ICU stay., Conclusion: In this cohort of patients with ICU-AW, most patients died of irreversible shock with MOF, caused by sepsis.