Search

Rapid ecosystem transitions and adverse effects on ecosystem services as responses to combined climate and human impacts are of major concern. Yet few long-term (i.e. >60 years) quantitative observational time series exist, particularly for ecosystems that have a long history of human intervention. Here, we combine three major environmental pressures (land use, nutrients and erosion) with quantitative summer and winter climate reconstructions and climate model simulations to explore the system dynamics, resilience and the role of disturbance regimes in varved eutrophic Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) since AD 1000. The comparison between these independent sources of information allows us to establish the coherence and points of disagreements between such data sets. We find that climate reconstructions capture noticeably natural forced climate variability, while internal variability is the dominant source of variability during most parts of the last millennium at the regional scale, precisely at which climate models seem to underestimate forced variability. Using different multivariate analyses and change point detection techniques, we identify ecosystem changes through time and shifts between rather stable states and highly variable ones. Prior to AD 1600, the lake ecosystem was characterised by high stability and resilience against observed natural climate variability. During this period, the anthropogenic fingerprint was small; the lake ecosystem was buffered against the combined human and natural disturbance. In contrast, lake–ecosystem conditions started to fluctuate across a broad range of states after AD 1600. The period AD 1745–1886 represents the phase with the strongest human disturbance of the catchment–lake ecosystem. During that time, the range of natural climate variability did not increase. Analyses of the frequency of change points in the multi-proxy data set suggest that the last 400 years were highly variable and increased vulnerability of the ecosystem to the anthropogenic disturbances. This led to significant rapid ecosystem transformations.

Chironomids were used to reconstruct mean July air temperatures between c. AD 1580 and 2001 at Lake Silvaplana, a varved lake located in the Engadine, eastern Swiss Alps. The goal of this study was to reconstruct temperature changes at near-annual resolution, and validate the reconstruction by comparison with records based on early instrumental data, documentary proxy evidence, dendrochronology, geochemical (biogenic silica (BSi)) and mineralogical data (quartz/mica ratios) at local and regional scales. Warmer than-the-climate-normal (AD 1961—1990) mean July air temperatures were inferred between c. AD 1610 and 1662, AD 1710 and 1740, AD 1790 and 1866, AD 1940 and 1960 and AD 1990 and 2001. Colder-than-the-climate-normal July air temperatures were reconstructed between c. AD 1662 and 1710, AD 1740 and 1790, AD 1866 and 1919, and AD 1970 and 1990. The 420-year chironomid-inferred mean July air temperature record was significantly ( p < 0.01) related to June—September (JJAS) temperatures reconstructed from early instrumental and documentary data at regional scale, JJA temperature inferred from documentary proxy evidence at local scale and summer temperatures based on early instrumental data in central Europe. When the Z-scores of warm/cold periods were compared between records, only one period ( c. AD 1740—1790) did not show significant correlations between the chironomid record and any of the eight other records considered here, probably because of increased precipitation and changes in the sediment composition which influenced the chironomid assemblages. 75% of the periods considered had significant correlations between the chironomid records, and both the reconstruction based on quartz/mica ratios and the inferred JJAS early instrumental and documentary proxy evidence, while 60% of the periods showed significant correlations between the chironomid-based record and the reconstruction based on early instrumental data of Central Europe. These results suggest that chironomids in the sediment of Lake Silvaplana yield valid temperature reconstructions at regional scales for the last 420 years.

We present a pigment-based quantitative high-resolution (five years) austral summer DJF (December to February) temperature reconstruction for Central Chile back to AD 850. We used non-destructive in situ multichannel reflection spectrometry data from a short sediment core of Laguna Aculeo (33°50′S/70°54′W, 355 m a.s.l., central Chile). Calibration-in-time (period AD 1901—2000, cross-validated with split periods) revealed robust correlations between local DJF temperatures and total sedimentary chlorin (relative absorption band depth (RABD) centred in 660—670 nm RABD660;670: r=0.79, P660nm/670 nm: r=0.82, P

We found a significant positive correlation between local summer air temperature (May-September) and the annual sediment mass accumulation rate (MAR) in Lake Silvaplana (46°N, 9°E, 1800 m a.s.l.) during the twentieth century (r = 0.69, p < 0.001 for decadal smoothed series). Sediment trap data (2001-2005) confirm this relation with exceptionally high particle yields during the hottest summer of the last 140 years in 2003. On this base we developed a decadal-scale summer temperature reconstruction back to AD 1580. Surprisingly, the comparison of our reconstruction with two other independent regional summer temperature reconstructions (based on tree-rings and documentary data) revealed a significant negative correlation for the pre-1900 data (ie, late ‘Little Ice Age’). This demonstrates that the correlation between MAR and summer temperature is not stable in time and the actualistic principle does not apply in this case. We suggest that different climatic regimes (modern/‘Little Ice Age’) lead to changing state conditions in the catchment and thus to considerably different sediment transport mechanisms. Therefore, we calibrated our MAR data with gridded early instrumental temperature series from AD 1760-1880 (r = -0.48, p < 0.01 for decadal smoothed series) to properly reconstruct the late LIA climatic conditions. We found exceptionally low temperatures between AD 1580 and 1610 (0.75°C below twentieth-century mean) and during the late Maunder Minimum from AD 1680 to 1710 (0.5°C below twentieth-century mean). In general, summer temperatures did not experience major negative departures from the twentieth-century mean during the late ‘Little Ice Age’. This compares well with the two existing independent regional reconstructions suggesting that the LIA in the Alps was mainly a phenomenon of the cold season.

Radiocarbon dates and relative ages of soils on moraines provide evidence of a substantial late-Holocene (

Lacustrine sediments from the high elevation, endorheic, saline lake Negro Francisco (27°28'S/69°14'W, 4125 m) provide a detailed mid- and late-Holocene environmental history of the Southern Chilean Altiplano. Mineralogy, chemical composition and sedimentary facies analyses of the deposits confirm the regional significance of mid-Holocene aridity between 6000 and 3800 BP. Precipitation rates were signifi cantly lower than the c. 250 mm yr-1 of today. Fully arid conditions were interrupted by short-term moist spells with an average return period of about 200 years. Effective moisture increased after 3800 BP and peaked between 3000 and 2600 BP and between 2200 and 1800 BP in two phases with conditions more humid than today. Comparison with regional palaeodata suggest that these two late-Holocene humid spells were most likely related to Pacific moisture sources. Salinity levels increased again in Laguna del Negro Francisco after 1800 BP. The onset of modern climatic conditions was a stepwise, nonlinear process. However, the functioning of modern climate in this remote part of the world is not understood well enough to explain fully possible mech anisms of climatic changes in the past.