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As short-term MRI studies are increasingly being used to monitor disease activity in multiple sclerosis (MS) it is vital to establish if short-term MRI activity is predictive of long term clinical outcome. We followed up after 5 years a group of 10 benign (relapsing-remitting MS with a disease duration > 10 years and EDSS < or = 3) and 10 early relapsing-remitting patients who previously had monthly serial MRI scans for 6 months. In the early relapsing-remitting group median EDSS at entry to the initial serial study was three and in the benign group 2.5. At 5-year follow up, five of these 20 patients had developed a definite deterioration in EDSS. The median number of new enhancing lesions detected originally in the group that had deteriorated was 11 (7-17) compared to 0 (0-5) new enhancing lesions, for those who had not deteriorated (P < 0.05). There was a trend towards a higher baseline T2 lesion load in the group with a definite change in EDSS but this was not significant This study suggests that short-term measurement of the number of gadolinium enhancing lesions may predict long term outcome in relapsing-remitting MS.

The role of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in predicting disability in multiple sclerosis (MS) remains unclear. In this study 21 patients with primary and secondary progressive MS were reviewed 5 years following a serial MRI study of 6 months duration. In the secondary progressive group (n = 11) there was a significant relationship between the occurrence of enhancing lesions and clinical relapses during the initial 6 months and increase in disability 5 years later. For both groups change in disability over the initial study period was predictive of outcome. These results suggest that the presence and frequency of gadolinium enhancement (a marker of inflammation) and changes in disability over a short period are predictive of future deterioration in progressive patients.