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The increasing penetration of online shopping will have major effects on physical stores. And the question is: In which areas will consumers replace most physical shopping with online shopping? Two apparently competing hypotheses were tested: the diffusion of innovation hypothesis, suggesting openness to new technologies; and the efficiency hypothesis, suggesting accessibility gains. Whether the innovation hypothesis has lost its importance in favor of the efficiency hypothesis was also questioned. The study area was a polycentric urban area in the Netherlands. We distinguished between books, clothes, and groceries. It was assumed that shoppers’ decisions to buy a particular good online or not, and the share of online shopping relative to in-store shopping for this good, were basically driven either by shoppers’ willingness to adopt the new technology of e-shopping or by shoppers’ accessibility to shops. Support was found for both hypotheses, although the impact of shopping seemed limited and varied between different types of goods. In the end, e-shopping behavior remains primarily shaped by households who are open to new technologies, and to a limited extent by efficiency considerations.

Electric bicycles have rapidly become more common in the Netherlands. This paper analyzes the effect of this relatively new form of transportation on modal choice by asking which modes electric bicycles are replacing. Using a revealed preference approach, researchers surveyed users from all over the country and collected demographic information, details about their electric bicycles, usage patterns, and a one-day travel diary. Results showed that electric bicycles were primarily owned by those older than age 55, with recreation, shopping, and commuting as common uses. Regarding modal switch, 40% of electric bicycle trips would have been made in an automobile if an electric bicycle had not been available. This finding suggests that as people age and experience increasing difficulty riding a traditional bicycle, the electric bicycle offers an opportunity for them to stay on the bike paths instead of switching to automobiles.

Mode alternation in the Netherlands was compared, and data from a longitudinal survey were compared with a single-moment survey that focused on bicycle commuting to evaluate its reliability. Travel data are usually collected at a single moment in time. The use of single-moment survey data to investigate variable behavior raises questions about the reliability of such data. Repeated measures, resulting in longitudinal data, may be the solution because in that case individuals would have to report only 1 day at a time, a relatively easy task. Collection of longitudinal data, however, is more expensive and takes more time. Analyses showed that mode alternation occurred frequently, especially for car and bicycle commuters. Single-moment surveys appeared to be unable to measure this accurately. Many respondents inaccurately reported being part-time cyclists although they always cycled to work or, conversely, claimed to be full-time cyclists although they varied modes. Moreover, many did not accurately report cycling frequency in a single-moment survey. However, it is difficult to determine the characteristics that predict the probability of an accurate report. In addition, the degree of accuracy is not readily linked to individual characteristics. Thus, it appears that the error in single-moment surveys cannot be easily corrected. Even repetitive behavior is subject to much variation, so surveys should include specific questions that would increase insight into this phenomenon and transport models should include mode variation. For this innovation in transport models to occur, longitudinal data must be collected and analyzed.

This paper, using longitudinal data for 633 part-time bicycle commuters, investigates day-to-day decisions to commute by bicycle. Previous research has investigated mode choice, travel destination, and other travel choices for 1 day only. However, it cannot be assumed that travel choices do not vary from day to day and that most individuals travel by the same transportation mode every day. Day-to-day decisions to cycle are affected by work characteristics, commute journey characteristics, and weather conditions. More specifically, workers wearing business attire, needing to transport goods, needing a car during office hours, having longer commute distances, commuting in the dark, and facing a higher wind speed or a more or longer duration of rain are less likely to commute by bicycle. Positive effects were found for temperature and the duration of sunshine. The results show that factors that can differ on a daily basis largely influence bicycle mode choice from day to day. The results show that two groups of part-time cyclists exist: occasional cyclists and frequent cyclists. Whereas the decisions of occasional cyclists to commute by bicycle are more affected by positive weather conditions, frequent cyclists are discouraged from cycling by more practical barriers, including wind speed and the need to be at multiple locations.

The assumption that travel demand is influenced by land use has long been applied in Dutch spatial planning policy. The aim of the present analysis is to explore how far this policy has succeeded in bringing about a compact and mixed spatial structure. Hence, a detailed analysis of the variation and development in the dispersal of urban activities, mix of uses, density, and diversity in urban areas between 1990 and 1996 is provided. It appears that although urban areas are leveling out on the one hand, they are undergoing a process of separation on the other. Although most of the building in the Randstad (the densely populated western part of the Netherlands) is taking place inside the designated urban regions, it is not producing compact monocentric towns; the urban areas are converging more and more, the metropolitan centers are losing their importance, and subcenters and concentrations of services are springing up on the edges of the urban regions. These phenomena confirm the emergence of complex, polycentric urban areas. Suburban sprawl is increasing rapidly in the intermediate zone outside the Randstad, where low-density residential areas, monoenvironments, and business estates are expanding. This region appears to have become the suburban search space for the Randstad. These dual trends will increase the distance between locations and make destinations less easily accessible by bicycle and public transport. Hence, neither the polycentric development inside the Randstad nor the suburban developments outside the Randstad will contribute to the reduction of car use.