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Uncertainties are essential, yet often neglected, information for evaluating the reliability in forest carbon balance projections used in national and regional policy planning. We analysed uncertainties in the forest net biome exchange (NBE) and carbon stocks under multiple management and climate scenarios with a process-based ecosystem model. Sampled forest initial state values, model parameters, harvest levels and global climate models (GCMs) served as inputs in Monte Carlo simulations, which covered forests of the 18 regions of mainland Finland over the period 2015-2050. Under individual scenarios, the results revealed time- and region-dependent variability in the magnitude of uncertainty and mean values of the NBE projections. The main sources of uncertainty varied with time, by region and by the amount of harvested wood. Combinations of uncertainties in the representative concentration pathways scenarios, GCMs, forest initial values and model parameters were the main sources of uncertainty at the beginning, while the harvest scenarios dominated by the end of the simulation period, combined with GCMs and climate scenarios especially in the north. Our regionally explicit uncertainty analysis was found a useful approach to reveal the variability in the regional potentials to reach a policy related, future target level of NBE, which is important information when planning realistic and regionally fair national policy actions., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

The EU aims at reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and Finland by 2035. We integrated results of three spatially distributed model systems (FRES, PREBAS, Zonation) to evaluate the potential to reach this goal at both national and regional scale in Finland, by simultaneously considering protection targets of the EU biodiversity (BD) strategy. Modelling of both anthropogenic emissions and forestry measures were carried out, and forested areas important for BD protection were identified based on spatial prioritization. We used scenarios until 2050 based on mitigation measures of the national climate and energy strategy, forestry policies and predicted climate change, and evaluated how implementation of these scenarios would affect greenhouse gas fluxes, carbon storages, and the possibility to reach the carbon neutrality target. Potential new forested areas for BD protection according to the EU 10% protection target provided a significant carbon storage (426-452 TgC) and sequestration potential (- 12 to - 17.5 TgCO 2 eq a -1 ) by 2050, indicating complementarity of emission mitigation and conservation measures. The results of the study can be utilized for integrating climate and BD policies, accounting of ecosystem services for climate regulation, and delimitation of areas for conservation., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Forest conservation plays a central role in meeting national and international biodiversity and climate targets. Biodiversity and carbon values within forests are often estimated with models, introducing uncertainty to decision making on which forest stands to protect. Here, we explore how uncertainties in forest variable estimates affect modelled biodiversity and carbon patterns, and how this in turn introduces variability in the selection of new protected areas. We find that both biodiversity and carbon patterns were sensitive to alterations in forest attributes. Uncertainty in features that were rare and/or had dissimilar distributions with other features introduced most variation to conservation plans. The most critical data uncertainty also depended on what fraction of the landscape was being protected. Forests of highest conservation value were more robust to data uncertainties than forests of lesser conservation value. Identifying critical sources of model uncertainty helps to effectively reduce errors in conservation decisions., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

We present regionally aggregated emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) from five land cover categories in Finland: artificial surfaces, arable land, forest, waterbodies, and wetlands. Carbon (C) sequestration to managed forests and unmanaged wetlands was also assessed. Models FRES and ALas were applied for emissions (CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O) from artificial surfaces and agriculture, and PREBAS for forest growth and C balance. Empirical emission coefficients were used to estimate emissions from drained forested peatland (CH 4 , N 2 O), cropland (CO 2 ), waterbodies (CH 4 , CO 2 ), peat production sites and undrained mires (CH 4 , CO 2 , N 2 O). We calculated gross emissions of 147.2 ± 6.8 TgCO 2 eq yr -1 for 18 administrative units covering mainland Finland, using data representative of the period 2017-2025. Emissions from energy production, industrial processes, road traffic and other sources in artificial surfaces amounted to 45.7 ± 2.0 TgCO 2 eq yr -1 . The loss of C in forest harvesting was the largest emission source in the LULUCF sector, in total 59.8 ± 3.3 TgCO 2 eq yr -1 . Emissions from domestic livestock production, field cultivation and organic soils added up to 12.2 ± 3.5 TgCO 2 eq yr -1 from arable land. Rivers and lakes (13.4 ± 1.9 TgCO 2 eq yr -1 ) as well as undrained mires and peat production sites (14.7 ± 1.8 TgCO 2 eq yr -1 ) increased the total GHG fluxes. The C sequestration from the atmosphere was 93.2 ± 13.7 TgCO 2 eq yr -1 . with the main sink in forest on mineral soil (79.9 ± 12.2 TgCO 2 eq yr -1 ). All sinks compensated 63% of total emissions and thus the net emissions were 53.9 ± 15.3 TgCO 2 eq yr -1 , or a net GHG flux per capita of 9.8 MgCO 2 eq yr -1 ., (© 2023. The Author(s).)