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Complex incubation strategies have evolved to solve the trade-off between parent survival and care for their eggs with often brief departures (recesses) that maximize egg survival, and infrequent extended recesses maximizing adult condition. Here we examined incubation behaviour of sanderlings ( Calidris alba ), a species that exhibits both biparental and uniparental incubation behaviour. During 11 breeding seasons in Greenland, we have quantified incubation variability with thermologgers placed in nests. We estimated the impact of environmental conditions and individual characteristics on the occurrence and the duration of recesses. We found that extended recesses are a unique feature of uniparentals, and their frequency and duration increased in colder temperatures. The relationship was mediated by body condition, with individuals in poor condition performing longer extended recesses in colder temperatures. This suggests that extended recesses may represent a shift towards self-maintenance at the expense of the egg care, allowing birds to continue incubating under unfavourable conditions. Our study illustrates how extended recesses may be a key breeding strategy to overcome high energetic costs associated with incubation. Quantifying such behavioural flexibility paves the way for tracking future behavioural responses of individuals in the face of changing environments.

Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar region, we show that virtually all populations displayed alternating periods of cyclic/non-cyclic fluctuations over the past four decades. Cyclic patterns were detected 55% of the time ( n = 649 years pooled across sites) with a median periodicity of 3.7 years, and non-cyclic periods were not more frequent in recent years. Overall, there was an indication for a negative effect of warm spells occurring during the snow onset period of the preceding year on lemming abundance. However, winter duration or early winter climatic conditions did not differ on average between cyclic and non-cyclic periods. Analysis of the time series shows that there is presently no Arctic-wide collapse of lemming cycles, even though cycles have been sporadic at most sites during the last decades. Although non-stationary dynamics appears a common feature of lemming populations also in the past, continued warming in early winter may decrease the frequency of periodic irruptions with negative consequences for tundra ecosystems.

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988-2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state.