Search

The need for replication of initial results has been rediscovered only recently in many fields of research. In preclinical biomedical research, it is common practice to conduct exact replications with the same sample sizes as those used in the initial experiments. Such replication attempts, however, have lower probability of replication than is generally appreciated. Indeed, in the common scenario of an effect just reaching statistical significance, the statistical power of the replication experiment assuming the same effect size is approximately 50%-in essence, a coin toss. Accordingly, we use the provocative analogy of "replicating" a neuroprotective drug animal study with a coin flip to highlight the need for larger sample sizes in replication experiments. Additionally, we provide detailed background for the probability of obtaining a significant p value in a replication experiment and discuss the variability of p values as well as pitfalls of simple binary significance testing in both initial preclinical experiments and replication studies with small sample sizes. We conclude that power analysis for determining the sample size for a replication study is obligatory within the currently dominant hypothesis testing framework. Moreover, publications should include effect size point estimates and corresponding measures of precision, e.g., confidence intervals, to allow readers to assess the magnitude and direction of reported effects and to potentially combine the results of initial and replication study later through Bayesian or meta-analytic approaches.

Congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (CAKUT) are the most common cause of chronic kidney disease in children. This disease group includes a spectrum of urinary tract defects including vesicoureteral reflux, duplex kidneys and other developmental defects that can be found alone or in combination. To identify new regulators of CAKUT, we tested the genetic cooperativity between several key regulators of urogenital system development in mice. We found a high incidence of urinary tract anomalies in Pax2;Emx2 compound heterozygous mice that are not found in single heterozygous mice. Pax2⁺/⁻;Emx2⁺/⁻ mice harbor duplex systems associated with urinary tract obstruction, bifid ureter and a high penetrance of vesicoureteral reflux. Remarkably, most compound heterozygous mice refluxed at low intravesical pressure. Early analysis of Pax2⁺/⁻;Emx2⁺/⁻ embryos point to ureter budding defects as the primary cause of urinary tract anomalies. We additionally establish Pax2 as a direct regulator of Emx2 expression in the Wolffian duct. Together, these results identify a haploinsufficient genetic combination resulting in CAKUT-like phenotype, including a high sensitivity to vesicoureteral reflux. As both genes are located on human chromosome 10q, which is lost in a proportion of VUR patients, these findings may help understand VUR and CAKUT in humans.