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BackgroundThe symptom profiles of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and long-COVID in children and young people (CYP), risk factors, and associated healthcare needs, are poorly defined. The Schools Infection Survey 1 (SIS-1) was a nationwide study of SARS-CoV-2 infection in primary and secondary schools in England during the 2020/21 school year. The Covid-19 Mapping and Mitigation in Schools (CoMMinS) study was conducted in schools in the Bristol area over a similar period. Both studies conducted testing to identify current and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, and recorded symptoms and school attendance. These research data have been linked to routine electronic health record (EHR) data.AimsTo better understand the short- and long-term consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and their risk factors, in CYP.MethodsRetrospective cohort and nested case-control analyses will be conducted for SIS-1 and CoMMinS data linked to EHR data for the association between (1) acute symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and risk factors; (2) SARS-CoV-2 infection and long-term effects on health: (a) persistent symptoms; (b) any new diagnosis; (c) a new prescription in primary care; (d) health service attendance; (e) a high rate of school absence.ResultsOur study will improve understanding of long-COVID in CYP by characterising the trajectory of long-COVID in CYP in terms of things like symptoms and diagnoses of conditions. The research will inform which groups of CYP are more likely to get acute- and long-term outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and patterns of related healthcare-seeking behaviour, relevant for healthcare service planning. Digested information will be produced for affected families, doctors, schools, and the public, as appropriate.ConclusionLinked SIS-1 and CoMMinS data represent a unique and rich resource for understanding the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection on children's health, benefiting from enhanced SARS-CoV-2 testing and ability to assess a wide range of outcomes.

BackgroundFollowing the full re-opening of schools in England and emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant, we investigated the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in students and staff who were contacts of a confirmed case in a school bubble (school groupings with limited interactions), along with their household members.MethodsPrimary and secondary school bubbles were recruited into sKIDsBUBBLE after being sent home to self-isolate following a confirmed case of COVID-19 in the bubble. Bubble participants and their household members were sent home-testing kits comprising nasal swabs for RT-PCR testing and whole genome sequencing, and oral fluid swabs for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.ResultsDuring November-December 2020, 14 bubbles were recruited from 7 schools, including 269 bubble contacts (248 students, 21 staff) and 823 household contacts (524 adults, 299 children). The secondary attack rate was 10.0% (6/60) in primary and 3.9% (4/102) in secondary school students, compared to 6.3% (1/16) and 0% (0/1) among staff, respectively. The incidence rate for household contacts of primary school students was 6.6% (12/183) and 3.7% (1/27) for household contacts of primary school staff. In secondary schools, this was 3.5% (11/317) and 0% (0/1), respectively. Household contacts were more likely to test positive if their bubble contact tested positive although there were new infections among household contacts of uninfected bubble contacts.InterpretationCompared to other institutional settings, the overall risk of secondary infection in school bubbles and their household contacts was low. Our findings are important for developing evidence-based infection prevention guidelines for educational settings.

Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease imposing significant impacts on livestock production and public health worldwide. India is the world's leading milk producer and Punjab is the state which produces the most cattle and buffalo milk per capita. The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiology of bovine brucellosis to provide evidence for control of the disease in Punjab State, India. A cross-sectional study of dairy farms was conducted in humans and livestock in rural Ludhiana district using a multi-stage sampling strategy. The study suggests that brucellosis is endemic at high levels in cattle and buffalo in the study area with 15.1% of large ruminants testing seropositive and approximately a third of dairy farms having at least one animal test seropositive. In total, 9.7% of those in direct contact with livestock tested seropositive for Brucella spp. Persons that assisted with calving and/or abortion within the last year on a farm with seronegative livestock and people which did not assist with calving/abortion had 0.35 (95% CI: 0.17 to 7.1) and 0.21 (0.09 to 0.46) times the odds of testing seropositive compared to persons assisting with calving/abortion in a seropositive farm, respectively. The study demonstrated that persons in direct contact with cattle and buffalo in the study area have high risk of exposure to Brucella spp. Control of the disease in livestock is likely to result in benefits to both animal and public health sectors.

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) rates in England are among the highest in high-income countries. Poverty and historic and current immigration from high TB incidence parts of the world are two major drivers of tuberculosis in England. However, little has been done in recent years to examine socio-economic trends in TB rates in England, and to disentangle the role of deprivation from that of place of birth in the current TB epidemiology.ObjectivesTo assess the association between England's 2008-2012 TB notification rates and small area-level deprivation, together and separately in the UK-born and foreign-born populations.MethodsEcological analysis of the association between quintiles of England's 2010 Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) and TB rates at the Lower-layer Super Output Area (LSOA; average population ~1500) level, using negative binomial and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models, adjusting for age, sex, urban/rural area classification, and area-level percentage of non-White residents.ResultsThere was a log-linear gradient between area-deprivation levels and TB rates, with overall TB rates in the most deprived quintile areas three times higher than the least deprived quintile after adjustment for age and sex (IRR = 3.35; 95%CI: 3.16 to 3.55). The association and gradient were stronger in the UK-born than the foreign-born population, with UK-born TB rates in the most deprived quintiles about two-and-a-half times higher than the least deprived quintile (IRR = 2.39; 95%CI: 2.19 to 2.61) after controlling for age, sex, urban/rural classification and percentage of non-White residents; whereas the comparable figure for foreign-born persons was 80% higher (IRR = 1.78; 95%CI: 1.66 to 1.91).ConclusionsSocio-economic deprivation continues to play a substantial role in sustaining the TB epidemic in England, especially in the UK-born population. This supports the case for further investigations of the underlying social- determinants of TB.

Changes in children's contact patterns between termtime and school holidays affect the transmission of several respiratory-spread infections. Transmission of varicella zoster virus (VZV), the causative agent of chickenpox, has also been linked to the school calendar in several settings, but temporal changes in the proportion of young children attending childcare centres may have influenced this relationship.We used two modelling methods (a simple difference equations model and a Time series Susceptible Infectious Recovered (TSIR) model) to estimate fortnightly values of a contact parameter (the per capita rate of effective contact between two specific individuals), using GP consultation data for chickenpox in England and Wales from 1967-2008.The estimated contact parameters were 22-31% lower during the summer holiday than during termtime. The relationship between the contact parameter and the school calendar did not change markedly over the years analysed.In England and Wales, reductions in contact between children during the school summer holiday lead to a reduction in the transmission of VZV. These estimates are relevant for predicting how closing schools and nurseries may affect an outbreak of an emerging respiratory-spread pathogen.

School closure is a potential intervention during an influenza pandemic and has been investigated in many modelling studies.To systematically review the effects of school closure on influenza outbreaks as predicted by simulation studies.We searched Medline and Embase for relevant modelling studies published by the end of October 2012, and handsearched key journals. We summarised the predicted effects of school closure on the peak and cumulative attack rates and the duration of the epidemic. We investigated how these predictions depended on the basic reproduction number, the timing and duration of closure and the assumed effects of school closures on contact patterns.School closures were usually predicted to be most effective if they caused large reductions in contact, if transmissibility was low (e.g. a basic reproduction number 90% reductions or even increases under certain assumptions). This partly reflected differences in model assumptions, such as those regarding population contact patterns.Simulation studies suggest that school closure can be a useful control measure during an influenza pandemic, particularly for reducing peak demand on health services. However, it is difficult to accurately quantify the likely benefits. Further studies of the effects of reactive school closures on contact patterns are needed to improve the accuracy of model predictions.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of the effectiveness of influenza vaccines in older adults may be biased because of difficulties identifying and adjusting for confounders of the vaccine-outcome association. We estimated vaccine effectiveness for prevention of serious influenza complications among older persons by using methods to account for underlying differences in risk for these complications. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among Ontario residents aged ≥ 65 years from September 1993 through September 2008. We linked weekly vaccination, hospitalization, and death records for 1.4 million community-dwelling persons aged ≥ 65 years. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated by comparing ratios of outcome rates during weeks of high versus low influenza activity (defined by viral surveillance data) among vaccinated and unvaccinated subjects by using log-linear regression models that accounted for temperature and time trends with natural spline functions. Effectiveness was estimated for three influenza-associated outcomes: all-cause deaths, deaths occurring within 30 days of pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations, and pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations. RESULTS: During weeks when 5% of respiratory specimens tested positive for influenza A, vaccine effectiveness among persons aged ≥ 65 years was 22% (95% confidence interval [CI], -6%-42%) for all influenza-associated deaths, 25% (95% CI, 13%-37%) for deaths occurring within 30 days after an influenza-associated pneumonia/influenza hospitalization, and 19% (95% CI, 4%-31%) for influenza-associated pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations. Because small proportions of deaths, deaths after pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations, and pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations were associated with influenza virus circulation, we estimated that vaccination prevented 1.6%, 4.8%, and 4.1% of these outcomes, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: By using confounding-reducing techniques with 15 years of provincial-level data including vaccination and health outcomes, we estimated that influenza vaccination prevented ~4% of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths occurring after hospitalizations among older adults in Ontario.

Wet markets are common in many parts of the world and may promote the emergence, spread and maintenance of livestock pathogens, including zoonoses. A survey was conducted in order to assess the potential of Vietnamese and Cambodian live bird markets (LBMs) to sustain circulation of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 (HPAIV H5N1). Thirty Vietnamese and 8 Cambodian LBMs were visited, and structured interviews were conducted with the market managers and 561 Vietnamese and 84 Cambodian traders. Multivariate and cluster analysis were used to construct a typology of traders based on their poultry management practices. As a result of those practices and large poultry surplus (unsold poultry reoffered for sale the following day), some poultry traders were shown to promote conditions favorable for perpetuating HPAIV H5N1 in LBMs. More than 80% of these traders operated in LBMs located in the most densely populated areas, Ha Noi and Phnom Penh. The profiles of sellers operating at a given LBM could be reliably predicted using basic information about the location and type of market. Consequently, LBMs with the largest combination of risk factors for becoming virus reservoirs could be easily identified, potentially allowing control strategies to be appropriately targeted. These findings are of particular relevance to resource-scarce settings with extensively developed LBM systems, commonly found in South-East Asia.

Since 2004, 21 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry and eight human cases have been confirmed in Cambodia. As a result, a large number of avian influenza education campaigns have been ongoing in provinces in which H5N1outbreaks have occurred in humans and/or domestic poultry.Data were collected from 1,252 adults >15 years old living in two southern provinces in Cambodia where H5N1 has been confirmed in domestic poultry and human populations using two cross-sectional surveys conducted in January 2006 and in November/December 2007. Poultry handling behaviors, poultry mortality occurrence and self-reported notification of suspect H5N1 poultry cases to animal health officials in these two surveys were evaluated. Our results demonstrate that although some at risk practices have declined since the first study, risky contact with poultry is still frequent. Improved rates of reporting poultry mortality were observed overall, but reporting to trained village animal health workers decreased by approximately 50%.Although some improvements in human behavior have occurred, there are still areas--particularly with respect to the handling of poultry among children and the proper treatment of poultry and the surrounding household environment--that need to be addressed in public health campaigns. Though there were some differences in the sampling methods of the 2006 and 2007 surveys, our results illustrate the potential to induce considerable, potentially very relevant, behavioral changes over a short period of time.