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Dog rabies has been recognized from ancient times and remains widespread across the developing world with an estimated 59,000 people dying annually from the disease. In 2011 a tri-partite alliance consisting of the OIE, the WHO and the FAO committed to globally eliminating dog-mediated human rabies by 2030. Regardless of global support, the responsibility remains with local program managers to implement successful elimination programs. It is well known that vaccination programs have a high probability of successful elimination if they achieve a population-coverage of 70%. It is often quoted that reducing population turnover (typically through sterilizations) raises the probability for local elimination by maintaining herd immunity for longer. Besides this, other factors that affect rabies elimination are rarely mentioned. This paper investigates the probability for local elimination as it relates to immunity, fecundity, dog population size, infectivity (bite rates), in-migration of immune-naïve dogs, and the initial incidence. To achieve this, an individual-based, stochastic, transmission model was manipulated to create a dataset covering combinations of factors that may affect elimination. The results thereof were analysed using a logistic regression model with elimination as the dependent variable. Our results suggest that smaller dog populations, lower infectivity and lower incidence (such as when epidemics start with single introductions) strongly increased the probability for elimination at wide ranges of vaccination levels. Lower fecundity and lower in-migration had weak effects. We discuss the importance of these findings in terms of their impact and their practical application in the design of dog-mediated rabies control programs.

From 2008 to 2018, South Africa permitted the export of captive-bred African lion (Panthera leo) skeletons to Southeast Asia under CITES Appendix II. Legal exports rose from approximately 50 individuals in 2008 to a maximum of 1,771 skeletons in 2016, and has led to ongoing concerns over possible laundering of non-lion, multiple-source and wild-sourced bones. South Africa is required under its obligations to CITES to employ mechanisms for monitoring and reporting trade, and to limit the potential for illegal trade and laundering of lion and other large felid bones. Monitoring tools for legal trade are critical to compliance with CITES. Here we evaluate the CITES-compliance procedure implemented by South Africa for export of lion bones and identify six essential general points for consideration in the implementation of animal export quota compliance protocols. We provide specific insight into the South African lion bone export monitoring system through: i) outlining the protocols followed; ii) assessing the utility of cranial morphology to identify species; iii) evaluating skeleton consignment weight as a monitoring tool; and iv) presenting molecular (DNA) species assignment and pairwise-comparative sample matching of individuals. We describe irregularities and illicit behaviour detected in the 2017 and 2018 lion bone quotas. Notably, we report that the compliance procedure successfully identified and prevented the attempted laundering of a tiger (P. tigris) skeleton in 2018. We emphasise the utility of mixed-method protocols for the monitoring of compliance in CITES Appendix II export quota systems.

We present a new modeling tool that can be used to maximize the impact of canine rabies management resources that are available at the local level. The model is accessible through a web-based interface that allows for flexibility in the management strategies that can be investigated. Rabies vaccination, sterilization, chemo-contraception, and euthanasia can be specified and limited to specific demographic groups. Additionally, we allowed for considerable complexity in the specification of management costs. In many areas, the costs of contacting additional dogs increases as management effort increases, and this can have important strategic implications. We illustrated the application of the model by examining several alternative management strategies in an area of Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Our results based on this dog population suggested that puppies should be vaccinated and sterilization would not be optimal if the spatial extent of management is not large (and perhaps not even then). Furthermore, given a sufficient budget, it was evident that vaccination campaigns should be repeated annually.