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BackgroundReal-world performance of COVID-19 diagnostic tests under Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) must be assessed. We describe overall trends in the performance of serology tests in the context of real-world implementation.MethodsSix health systems estimated the odds of seropositivity and positive percent agreement (PPA) of serology test among people with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection by molecular test. In each dataset, we present the odds ratio and PPA, overall and by key clinical, demographic, and practice parameters.ResultsA total of 15,615 people were observed to have at least one serology test 14-90 days after a positive molecular test for SARS-CoV-2. We observed higher PPA in Hispanic (PPA range: 79-96%) compared to non-Hispanic (60-89%) patients; in those presenting with at least one COVID-19 related symptom (69-93%) as compared to no such symptoms (63-91%); and in inpatient (70-97%) and emergency department (93-99%) compared to outpatient (63-92%) settings across datasets. PPA was highest in those with diabetes (75-94%) and kidney disease (83-95%); and lowest in those with auto-immune conditions or who are immunocompromised (56-93%). The odds ratios (OR) for seropositivity were higher in Hispanics compared to non-Hispanics (OR range: 2.59-3.86), patients with diabetes (1.49-1.56), and obesity (1.63-2.23); and lower in those with immunocompromised or autoimmune conditions (0.25-0.70), as compared to those without those comorbidities. In a subset of three datasets with robust information on serology test name, seven tests were used, two of which were used in multiple settings and met the EUA requirement of PPA ≥87%. Tests performed similarly across datasets.ConclusionAlthough the EUA requirement was not consistently met, more investigation is needed to understand how serology and molecular tests are used, including indication and protocol fidelity. Improved data interoperability of test and clinical/demographic data are needed to enable rapid assessment of the real-world performance of in vitro diagnostic tests.

The role intrinsic statistical fluctuations play in creating avalanches--patterns of complex bursting activity with scale-free properties--is examined in leaky Markovian networks. Using this broad class of models, we develop a probabilistic approach that employs a potential energy landscape perspective coupled with a macroscopic description based on statistical thermodynamics. We identify six important thermodynamic quantities essential for characterizing system behavior as a function of network size: the internal potential energy, entropy, free potential energy, internal pressure, pressure, and bulk modulus. In agreement with classical phase transitions, these quantities evolve smoothly as a function of the network size until a critical value is reached. At that value, a discontinuity in pressure is observed that leads to a spike in the bulk modulus demarcating loss of thermodynamic robustness. We attribute this novel result to a reallocation of the ground states (global minima) of the system's stationary potential energy landscape caused by a noise-induced deformation of its topographic surface. Further analysis demonstrates that appreciable levels of intrinsic noise can cause avalanching, a complex mode of operation that dominates system dynamics at near-critical or subcritical network sizes. Illustrative examples are provided using an epidemiological model of bacterial infection, where avalanching has not been characterized before, and a previously studied model of computational neuroscience, where avalanching was erroneously attributed to specific neural architectures. The general methods developed here can be used to study the emergence of avalanching (and other complex phenomena) in many biological, physical and man-made interaction networks.

The processes by which disease spreads in a population of individuals are inherently stochastic. The master equation has proven to be a useful tool for modeling such processes. Unfortunately, solving the master equation analytically is possible only in limited cases (e.g., when the model is linear), and thus numerical procedures or approximation methods must be employed. Available approximation methods, such as the system size expansion method of van Kampen, may fail to provide reliable solutions, whereas current numerical approaches can induce appreciable computational cost. In this paper, we propose a new numerical technique for solving the master equation. Our method is based on a more informative stochastic process than the population process commonly used in the literature. By exploiting the structure of the master equation governing this process, we develop a novel technique for calculating the exact solution of the master equation--up to a desired precision--in certain models of stochastic epidemiology. We demonstrate the potential of our method by solving the master equation associated with the stochastic SIR epidemic model. MATLAB software that implements the methods discussed in this paper is freely available as Supporting Information S1.

BackgroundRNA sequencing has been proposed as a means of increasing diagnostic rates in studies of undiagnosed rare inherited disease. Recent studies have reported diagnostic improvements in the range of 7.5-35% by profiling splicing, gene expression quantification and allele specific expression. To-date however, no study has systematically assessed the presence of gene-fusion transcripts in cases of germline disease. Fusion transcripts are routinely identified in cancer studies and are increasingly recognized as having diagnostic, prognostic or therapeutic relevance. Isolated reports exist of fusion transcripts being detected in cases of developmental and neurological phenotypes, and thus, systematic application of fusion detection to germline conditions may further increase diagnostic rates. However, current fusion detection methods are unsuited to the investigation of germline disease due to performance biases arising from their development using tumor, cell-line or in-silico data.MethodsWe describe a tailored approach to fusion candidate identification and prioritization in a cohort of 47 undiagnosed, suspected inherited disease patients. We modify an existing fusion transcript detection algorithm by eliminating its cell line-derived filtering steps, and instead, prioritize candidates using a custom workflow that integrates genomic and transcriptomic sequence alignment, biological and technical annotations, customized categorization logic, and phenotypic prioritization.ResultsWe demonstrate that our approach to fusion transcript identification and prioritization detects genuine fusion events excluded by standard analyses and efficiently removes phenotypically unimportant candidates and false positive events, resulting in a reduced candidate list enriched for events with potential phenotypic relevance. We describe the successful genetic resolution of two previously undiagnosed disease cases through the detection of pathogenic fusion transcripts. Furthermore, we report the experimental validation of five additional cases of fusion transcripts with potential phenotypic relevance.ConclusionsThe approach we describe can be implemented to enable the detection of phenotypically relevant fusion transcripts in studies of rare inherited disease. Fusion transcript detection has the potential to increase diagnostic rates in rare inherited disease and should be included in RNA-based analytical pipelines aimed at genetic diagnosis.