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Predicting the short-term evolution of the number of cancers is essential for planning investments and allocating health resources. The objective of this study was to predict the numbers of cancer cases and of the 12 most frequent cancer sites, and their age-standardized incidence rates, for the years 2019-2025 in Switzerland. Projections of the number of malignant cancer cases were obtained by combining data from two sources: forecasts of national age-standardized cancer incidence rates and population projections from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. Age-standardized cancer incidence rates, approximating the individual cancer risk, were predicted by a low-order Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The contributions of changes in cancer risk (epidemiological component) and population aging and growth (demographic components) to the projected number of new cancer cases were each quantified. Between 2018 and 2025, age-standardized cancer incidence rates are predicted to stabilize for men and women at around 426 and 328/100,000, respectively (

INTRODUCTION: There is a need to assess risk of second primary cancers in prostate cancer (PCa) patients, especially since PCa treatment may be associated with increased risk of second primary tumours. METHODS: We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for second primary tumours comparing men diagnosed with PCa between 1980 and 2010 in the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland (n = 20,559), and the general male population in the Canton. RESULTS: A total of 1,718 men developed a second primary tumour after PCa diagnosis, with lung and colon cancer being the most common (15 and 13% respectively). The SIR for overall second primary cancer was 1.11 (95%CI: 1.06-1.17). Site-specific SIRs varied from 1.19 (1.05-1.34) to 2.89 (2.62-4.77) for lung and thyroid cancer, respectively. When stratified by treatment, the highest SIR was observed for thyroid cancer (3.57 (1.30-7.76)) when undergoing surgery, whereas liver cancer was common when treated with radiotherapy (3.21 (1.54-5.90)) and kidney bladder was most prevalent for those on hormonal treatment (3.15 (1.93-4.87)). Stratification by time since PCa diagnosis showed a lower risk of cancer for men with PCa compared to the general population for the first four years, but then a steep increase in risk was observed. CONCLUSION: In the Canton of Zurich, there was an increased risk of second primary cancers among men with PCa compared to the general population. Increased diagnostic activity after PCa diagnosis may partly explain increased risks within the first years of diagnosis, but time-stratified analyses indicated that increased risks remained and even increased over time.