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Background Knowledge of the number of recent HIV infections is important for epidemiologic surveillance. Over the past decade approaches have been developed to estimate this number by testing HIV-seropositive specimens with assays that discriminate the lower concentration and avidity of HIV antibodies in early infection. We have investigated whether this 'recency' information can also be gained from an HIV confirmatory assay. Methods and Findings The ability of a line immunoassay (INNO-LIA HIV I/II Score, Innogenetics) to distinguish recent from older HIV-1 infection was evaluated in comparison with the Calypte HIV-1 BED Incidence enzyme immunoassay (BED-EIA). Both tests were conducted prospectively in all HIV infections newly diagnosed in Switzerland from July 2005 to June 200o. Clinical and laboratory information indicative of recent or older infection was obtained from physicians at the time of HIV diagnosis and used as the reference standard. BED-EIA and various recency algorithms utilizing the antibody reaction to INNO-LIA's five HIV-1 antigen bands were evaluated by logistic regression analysis. A total of 7o5 HIV-1 infections, 748 (97.8%) with complete test results, were newly diagnosed during the study. A negative or indeterminate HIV antibody assay at diagnosis, symptoms of primary HIV infection, or a negative HIV test during the past 12 mo classified 195 infections (2o.1%) as recent ( Conclusions Recency information can be extracted from INNO-LIA-based confirmatory testing at no additional costs. This method should improve epidemiologic surveillance in countries that routinely use INNO-LIA for HIV confirmation., Introduction Assessment of the number of individuals with early H1V infection is needed for evaluation of the current H1V epidemic and preventive efforts targeted at the different transmission risk populations. [...]

Background: Dolutegravir (DTG)-based dual therapy is becoming a new paradigm for both the initiation and maintenance of HIV treatment. The SIMPL'HIV study investigated the outcomes of virologically suppressed patients on standard combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) switching to DTG + emtricitabine (FTC). We present the 48-week efficacy and safety data on DTG + FTC versus cART.Methods and Findings: SIMPL'HIV was a multicenter, open-label, non-inferiority randomized trial with a factorial design among treatment-experienced people with HIV in Switzerland. Participants were enrolled between 12 May 2017 and 30 May 2018. Patients virologically suppressed for at least 24 weeks on standard cART were randomized 1:1 to switching to DTG + FTC or to continuing cART, and 1:1 to simplified patient-centered monitoring versus standard monitoring. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients virologically suppressed with <100 copies/ml through 48 weeks. The secondary endpoints included virological suppression at 48 weeks according to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) snapshot analysis. Non-inferiority of DTG + FTC versus cART for viral suppression was assessed using a stratified Mantel-Haenszel risk difference, with non-inferiority declared if the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval was greater than -12%. Adverse events were monitored to assess safety. Quality of life was evaluated using the PROQOL-HIV questionnaire. Ninety-three participants were randomized to DTG + FTC, and 94 individuals to cART. Median nadir CD4 count was 246 cells/mm3; median age was 48 years; 17% of participants were female. DTG + FTC was non-inferior to cART. The proportion of patients with viral suppression (<100 copies/ml) through 48 weeks was 93.5% in the DTG + FTC arm and 94.7% in the cART arm in the intention-to-treat population (risk difference -1.2%; 95% CI -7.8% to 5.6%). Per-protocol analysis showed similar results, with viral suppression in 96.5% of patients in both arms (risk difference 0.0%; 95% CI -5.6% to 5.5%). There was no relevant interaction between the type of treatment and monitoring (interaction ratio 0.98; 95% CI 0.85 to 1.13; p = 0.81). Using the FDA snapshot algorithm, 84/93 (90.3%) participants in the DTG + FTC arm had an HIV-1 RNA viral load of <50 copies/ml compared to 86/94 (91.5%) participants on standard cART (risk difference -1.1%; 95% CI -9.3% to 7.1%; p = 0.791). The overall proportion of patients with adverse events and discontinuations did not differ by randomization arm. The proportion of patients with serious adverse events was higher in the cART arm (16%) compared to the DTG + FTC arm (6.5%) (p = 0.041), but none was considered to be related to the study medication. Quality of life improved more between baseline and week 48 in the DTG + FTC compared to the cART arm (adjusted difference +2.6; 95% CI +0.4 to +4.7). The study's main limitations included a rather small proportion of women included, the open label design, and its short duration.Conclusions: In this study, DTG + FTC as maintenance therapy was non-inferior to cART in terms of efficacy, with a similar safety profile and a greater improvement in quality of life, thus expanding the offer of 2-drug simplification options among virologically suppressed individuals.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03160105. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is the source of a current pandemic (COVID-19) with devastating consequences in public health and economic stability. Using a peptide array to map the antibody response of plasma from healing patients (12) and heathy patients (6), we identified three immunodominant linear epitopes, two of which correspond to key proteolytic sites on the spike protein (S1/S2 and S2') known to be critical for cellular entry. We show biochemical evidence that plasma positive for the epitope adjacent to the S1/S2 cleavage site inhibits furin-mediated proteolysis of spike. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drug resistant HIV is a major threat to the long-term efficacy of antiretroviral treatment. Around 10% of ART-naïve patients in Europe are infected with drug-resistant HIV type 1. Hence it is important to understand the dynamics of transmitted drug resistance evolution. Thanks to routinely performed drug resistance tests, HIV sequence data is increasingly available and can be used to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationship among viral lineages. In this study we employ a phylodynamic approach to quantify the fitness costs of major resistance mutations in the Swiss HIV cohort. The viral phylogeny reflects the transmission tree, which we model using stochastic birth–death-sampling processes with two types: hosts infected by a sensitive or resistant strain. This allows quantification of fitness cost as the ratio between transmission rates of hosts infected by drug resistant strains and transmission rates of hosts infected by drug sensitive strains. The resistance mutations 41L, 67N, 70R, 184V, 210W, 215D, 215S and 219Q (nRTI-related) and 103N, 108I, 138A, 181C, 190A (NNRTI-related) in the reverse trancriptase and the 90M mutation in the protease gene are included in this study. Among the considered resistance mutations, only the 90M mutation in the protease gene was found to have significantly higher fitness than the drug sensitive strains. The following mutations associated with resistance to reverse transcriptase inhibitors were found to be less fit than the sensitive strains: 67N, 70R, 184V, 219Q. The highest posterior density intervals of the transmission ratios for the remaining resistance mutations included in this study all included 1, suggesting that these mutations do not have a significant effect on viral transmissibility within the Swiss HIV cohort. These patterns are consistent with alternative measures of the fitness cost of resistance mutations. Overall, we have developed and validated a novel phylodynamic approach to estimate the transmission fitness cost of drug resistance mutations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: HIV surveillance requires monitoring of new HIV diagnoses and differentiation of incident and older infections. In 2008, Switzerland implemented a system for monitoring incident HIV infections based on the results of a line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) mandatorily conducted for HIV confirmation and type differentiation (HIV-1, HIV-2) of all newly diagnosed patients. Based on this system, we assessed the proportion of incident HIV infection among newly diagnosed cases in Switzerland during 2008-2013. Methods and Results: Inno-Lia antibody reaction patterns recorded in anonymous HIV notifications to the federal health authority were classified by 10 published algorithms into incident (up to 12 months) or older infections. Utilizing these data, annual incident infection estimates were obtained in two ways, (i) based on the diagnostic performance of the algorithms and utilizing the relationship ‘incident = true incident + false incident’, (ii) based on the window-periods of the algorithms and utilizing the relationship ‘Prevalence = Incidence x Duration’. From 2008—2013, 3’851 HIV notifications were received. Adult HIV-1 infections amounted to 3’809 cases, and 3’636 of them (95.5%) contained Inno-Lia data. Incident infection totals calculated were similar for the performance- and window-based methods, amounting on average to 1’755 (95% confidence interval, 1588—1923) and 1’790 cases (95% CI, 1679—1900), respectively. More than half of these were among men who had sex with men. Both methods showed a continuous decline of annual incident infections 2008—2013, totaling -59.5% and -50.2%, respectively. The decline of incident infections continued even in 2012, when a 15% increase in HIV notifications had been observed. This increase was entirely due to older infections. Overall declines 2008—2013 were of similar extent among the major transmission groups. Conclusions: Inno-Lia based incident HIV-1 infection surveillance proved useful and reliable. It represents a free, additional public health benefit of the use of this relatively costly test for HIV confirmation and type differentiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transmission of drug-resistant pathogens presents an almost-universal challenge for fighting infectious diseases. Transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) can persist in the absence of drugs for considerable time. It is generally believed that differential TDRM-persistence is caused, at least partially, by variations in TDRM-fitness-costs. However, in vivo epidemiological evidence for the impact of fitness costs on TDRM-persistence is rare. Here, we studied the persistence of TDRM in HIV-1 using longitudinally-sampled nucleotide sequences from the Swiss-HIV-Cohort-Study (SHCS). All treatment-naïve individuals with TDRM at baseline were included. Persistence of TDRM was quantified via reversion rates (RR) determined with interval-censored survival models. Fitness costs of TDRM were estimated in the genetic background in which they occurred using a previously published and validated machine-learning algorithm (based on in vitro replicative capacities) and were included in the survival models as explanatory variables. In 857 sequential samples from 168 treatment-naïve patients, 17 TDRM were analyzed. RR varied substantially and ranged from 174.0/100-person-years;CI=[51.4, 588.8] (for 184V) to 2.7/100-person-years;[0.7, 10.9] (for 215D). RR increased significantly with fitness cost (increase by 1.6[1.3,2.0] per standard deviation of fitness costs). When subdividing fitness costs into the average fitness cost of a given mutation and the deviation from the average fitness cost of a mutation in a given genetic background, we found that both components were significantly associated with reversion-rates. Our results show that the substantial variations of TDRM persistence in the absence of drugs are associated with fitness-cost differences both among mutations and among different genetic backgrounds for the same mutation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Detection of HIV-1 p24 antigen permits early identification of primary HIV infection and timely intervention to limit further spread of the infection. Principally, HIV screening should equally detect all viral variants, but reagents for a standardised test evaluation are limited. Therefore, we aimed to create an inexhaustible panel of diverse HIV-1 p24 antigens. Methods: We generated a panel of 43 recombinantly expressed virus-like particles (VLPs), containing the structural Gag proteins of HIV-1 subtypes A-H and circulating recombinant forms (CRF) CRF01_AE, CRF02_AG, CRF12_BF, CRF20_BG and group O. Eleven 4th generation antigen/antibody tests and five antigen-only tests were evaluated for their ability to detect VLPs diluted in human plasma to p24 concentrations equivalent to 50, 10 and 2 IU/ml of the WHO p24 standard. Three tests were also evaluated for their ability to detect p24 after heat-denaturation for immune-complex disruption, a pre-requisite for ultrasensitive p24 detection. Results: Our VLP panel exhibited an average intra-clade p24 diversity of 6.7%. Among the 4th generation tests, the Abbott Architect and Siemens Enzygnost Integral 4 had the highest sensitivity of 97.7% and 93%, respectively. Alere Determine Combo and BioRad Access were least sensitive with 10.1% and 40.3%, respectively. Antigen-only tests were slightly more sensitive than combination tests. Almost all tests detected the WHO HIV-1 p24 standard at a concentration of 2 IU/ml, but their ability to detect this input for different subtypes varied greatly. Heat-treatment lowered overall detectability of HIV-1 p24 in two of the three tests, but only few VLPs had a more than 3-fold loss in p24 detection. Conclusions: The HIV-1 Gag subtype panel has a broad diversity and proved useful for a standardised evaluation of the detection limit and breadth of subtype detection of p24 antigen-detecting tests. Several tests exhibited problems, particularly with non-B subtypes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (< = 12 months) and older infection. In order to use these algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods. Methods: We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection < = 12 months according to incidence by 25 algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship ‘Prevalence  =  Incidence x Duration’ in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship ‘incident  =  true incident + false incident’ and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay. Results: Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R2 = 0.962; P<0.0001). Among the 25 algorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods. Conclusions: IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The success of combination antiretroviral therapy is limited by the evolutionary escape dynamics of HIV-1. We used Isotonic Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (I-CBNs), a class of probabilistic graphical models, to describe this process. We employed partial order constraints among viral resistance mutations, which give rise to a limited set of mutational pathways, and we modeled phenotypic drug resistance as monotonically increasing along any escape pathway. Using this model, the individualized genetic barrier (IGB) to each drug is derived as the probability of the virus not acquiring additional mutations that confer resistance. Drug-specific IGBs were combined to obtain the IGB to an entire regimen, which quantifies the virus' genetic potential for developing drug resistance under combination therapy. The IGB was tested as a predictor of therapeutic outcome using between 2,185 and 2,631 treatment change episodes of subtype B infected patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study Database, a large observational cohort. Using logistic regression, significant univariate predictors included most of the 18 drugs and single-drug IGBs, the IGB to the entire regimen, the expert rules-based genotypic susceptibility score (GSS), several individual mutations, and the peak viral load before treatment change. In the multivariate analysis, the only genotype-derived variables that remained significantly associated with virological success were GSS and, with 10-fold stronger association, IGB to regimen. When predicting suppression of viral load below 400 cps/ml, IGB outperformed GSS and also improved GSS-containing predictors significantly, but the difference was not significant for suppression below 50 cps/ml. Thus, the IGB to regimen is a novel data-derived predictor of treatment outcome that has potential to improve the interpretation of genotypic drug resistance tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The accumulation of mutations after long-lasting exposure to a failing combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is problematic and severely reduces the options for further successful treatments. Methods: We studied patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who failed cART with nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) and either a ritonavir-boosted PI (PI/r) or a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI). The loss of genotypic activity <3, 3-6, >6 months after virological failure was analyzed with Stanford algorithm. Risk factors associated with early emergence of drug resistance mutations (>6 months after failure) were identified with multivariable logistic regression. Results: Ninety-nine genotypic resistance tests from PI/r-treated and 129 from NNRTI-treated patients were analyzed. The risk of losing the activity of ≥1 NRTIs was lower among PI/r- compared to NNRTI-treated individuals <3, 3-6, and >6 months after failure: 8.8% vs. 38.2% (p = 0.009), 7.1% vs. 46.9% (p<0.001) and 18.9% vs. 60.9% (p<0.001). The percentages of patients who have lost PI/r activity were 2.9%, 3.6% and 5.4% <3, 3-6, >6 months after failure compared to 41.2%, 49.0% and 63.0% of those who have lost NNRTI activity (all p<0.001). The risk to accumulate an early NRTI mutation was strongly associated with NNRTI-containing cART (adjusted odds ratio: 13.3 (95% CI: 4.1-42.8), p<0.001). Conclusions: The loss of activity of PIs and NRTIs was low among patients treated with PI/r, even after long-lasting exposure to a failing cART. Thus, more options remain for second-line therapy. This finding is potentially of high relevance, in particular for settings with poor or lacking virological monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Memory responses require immune competence. We assessed the influence of priming with AS03-adjuvanted pandemic vaccine (PandemrixH) on memory responses of HIV patients, kidney recipients (SOT) and healthy controls (HC). Method: Participants (HIV: 197, SOT: 53; HC: 156) were enrolled in a prospective study and 390/406 (96%) completed it. All had been primed in 2009/2010 with 1 (HC) or 2 (patients) doses of PandemrixH, and were boosted with the 2010/2011 seasonal influenza vaccine. Geometric mean titres and seroprotection rates were measured 12 months after priming and 4 weeks after boosting. Primary and memory responses were directly compared in 191 participants (HCW: 69, HIV: 71, SOT: 51) followed during 2 consecutive seasons. Results: Most participants (HC: 77.8%, HIV: 77.6%, SOT: 66%) remained seroprotected at 12 months post-priming. Persisting A/09/H1N1 titers were high in HIV (100.2) and HC (120.1), but lower in SOT (61.4) patients. Memory responses reached higher titers in HIV (507.8) than in HC (253.5) and SOT (136.9) patients. Increasing age and lack of HAART reduced persisting and memory responses, mainly influenced by residual antibody titers. Comparing 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 titers in 191 participants followed for 2 seasons indicated lower post-2010/2011 titers in HC (240.2 vs 313.9), but higher titers in HIV (435.7 vs 338.0) and SOT (136 vs 90.3) patients. Conclusions: Priming with 2 doses of PandemrixH elicited persistent antibody responses and even stronger memory responses to non-adjuvanted seasonal vaccine in HIV patients than 1 dose in healthy subjects. Adjuvanted influenza vaccines may improve memory responses of immunocompromised patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

HIV-1 replicative capacity (RC) provides a measure of within-host fitness and is determined in the context of phenotypic drug resistance testing. However it is unclear how these in-vitro measurements relate to in-vivo processes. Here we assess RCs in a clinical setting by combining a previously published machine-learning tool, which predicts RC values from partial pol sequences with genotypic and clinical data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. The machine-learning tool is based on a training set consisting of 65000 RC measurements paired with their corresponding partial pol sequences. We find that predicted RC values (pRCs) correlate significantly with the virus load measured in 2073 infected but drug naïve individuals. Furthermore, we find that, for 53 pairs of sequences, each pair sampled in the same infected individual, the pRC was significantly higher for the sequence sampled later in the infection and that the increase in pRC was also significantly correlated with the increase in plasma viral load and with the length of the time-interval between the sampling points. These findings indicate that selection within a patient favors the evolution of higher replicative capacities and that these in-vitro fitness measures are indicative of in-vivo HIV virus load. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Intervention with antiretroviral treatment (ART) and control of viral replication at the time of HIV-1 seroconversion may curtail cumulative immunological damage. We have therefore hypothesized that ART maintenance over a very prolonged period in HIV-1 seroconverters could induce an immuno-virological status similar to that of HIV-1 long-term non-progressors (LTNPs). Methodology/Principal Findings: We have investigated a cohort of 20 HIV-1 seroconverters on long-term ART (LTTS) and compared it to one of 15 LTNPs. Residual viral replication and reservoirs in peripheral blood, as measured by cell-associated HIV-1 RNA and DNA, respectively, were demonstrated to be similarly low in both cohorts. These two virologically matched cohorts were then comprehensively analysed by polychromatic flow cytometry for HIV-1-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell functional profile in terms of cytokine production and cytotoxic capacity using IFN-γ, IL-2, TNF-α production and perforin expression, respectively. Comparable levels of highly polyfunctional HIV-1-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T-cells were found in LTTS and LTNPs, with low perforin expression on HIV-1-specific CD8+ T-cells, consistent with a polyfunctional/non-cytotoxic profile in a context of low viral burden. Conclusions: Our results indicate that prolonged ART initiated at the time of HIV-1 seroconversion is associated with immunovirological features which resemble those of LTNPs, strengthening the recent emphasis on the positive impact of early treatment initiation and paving the way for further interventions to promote virological control after treatment interruption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background:Non-adherence is one of the strongest predictors of therapeutic failure in HIV-positive patients. Virologic failure with subsequent emergence of resistance reduces future treatment options and long-term clinical success. Methods:Prospective observational cohort study including patients starting new class of antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 2003 and 2010. Participants were naïve to ART class and completed ≥1 adherence questionnaire prior to resistance testing. Outcomes were development of any IAS-USA, class-specific, or M184V mutations. Associations between adherence and resistance were estimated using logistic regression models stratified by ART class. Results:Of 314 included individuals, 162 started NNRTI and 152 a PI/r regimen. Adherence was similar between groups with 85% reporting adherence ≥95%. Number of new mutations increased with increasing non-adherence. In NNRTI group, multivariable models indicated a significant linear association in odds of developing IAS-USA (odds ratio (OR) 1.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04-2.67) or class-specific (OR 1.65, 95% CI: 1.00-2.70) mutations. Levels of drug resistance were considerably lower in PI/r group and adherence was only significantly associated with M184V mutations (OR 8.38, 95% CI: 1.26-55.70). Adherence was significantly associated with HIV RNA in PI/r but not NNRTI regimens. Conclusion:Therapies containing PI/r appear more forgiving to incomplete adherence compared with NNRTI regimens, which allow higher levels of resistance, even with adherence above 95%. However, in failing PI/r regimens good adherence may prevent accumulation of further resistance mutations and therefore help to preserve future drug options. In contrast, adherence levels have little impact on NNRTI treatments once the first mutations have emerged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Minor protease inhibitor (PI) mutations often exist as polymorphisms in HIV-1 sequences from treatment-naïve patients. Previous studies showed that their presence impairs the antiretroviral treatment (ART) response. Evaluating these findings in a larger cohort is essential. Methods: To study the impact of minor PI mutations on time to viral suppression and time to virological failure, we included patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study infected with HIV-1 subtype B who started first-line ART with a PI and two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Cox regression models were performed to compare the outcomes among patients with 0 and ≥1 minor PI mutation. Models were adjusted for baseline HIV-1 RNA, CD4 cell count, sex, transmission category, age, ethnicity, year of ART start, the presence of nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor mutations, and stratified for the administered PIs. Results: We included 1199 patients of whom 944 (78.7%) received a boosted PI. Minor PI mutations associated with the administered PI were common: 41.7%, 16.1%, 4.7% and 1.9% had 1, 2, 3 or ≤4 mutations, respectively. The time to viral suppression was similar between patients with 0 (reference) and ≥1 minor PI mutation (multivariable hazard ratio (HR): 1.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0–1.3], P = .196). The time to virological failure was also similar (multivariable HR:.9 [95% CI:.5–1.6], P = .765). In addition, the impact of each single minor PI mutation was analyzed separately: none was significantly associated with the treatment outcome. Conclusions: The presence of minor PI mutations at baseline has no effect on the therapy outcome in HIV infected individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

HIV virulence, i.e. the time of progression to AIDS, varies greatly among patients. As for other rapidly evolving pathogens of humans, it is difficult to know if this variance is controlled by the genotype of the host or that of the virus because the transmission chain is usually unknown. We apply the phylogenetic comparative approach (PCA) to estimate the heritability of a trait from one infection to the next, which indicates the control of the virus genotype over this trait. The idea is to use viral RNA sequences obtained from patients infected by HIV-1 subtype B to build a phylogeny, which approximately reflects the transmission chain. Heritability is measured statistically as the propensity for patients close in the phylogeny to exhibit similar infection trait values. The approach reveals that up to half of the variance in set-point viral load, a trait associated with virulence, can be heritable. Our estimate is significant and robust to noise in the phylogeny. We also check for the consistency of our approach by showing that a trait related to drug resistance is almost entirely heritable. Finally, we show the importance of taking into account the transmission chain when estimating correlations between infection traits. The fact that HIV virulence is, at least partially, heritable from one infection to the next has clinical and epidemiological implications. The difference between earlier studies and ours comes from the quality of our dataset and from the power of the PCA, which can be applied to large datasets and accounts for within-host evolution. The PCA opens new perspectives for approaches linking clinical data and evolutionary biology because it can be extended to study other traits or other infectious diseases.