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Background: Anticoagulation decreases a patient’s risk of ischemic stroke and increases the risk of hemorrhage. Decision analyses regarding anticoagulation therefore require that different outcomes be weighted in comparison to one another. Most decision analyses to date have weighted intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) as 1.5 times worse than ischemic stroke, but because death and disability have lifelong impact, the expected impact should vary by life expectancy. Therefore, a fixed weighting ratio leads to age-related bias decision analyses of anticoagulation. We aimed to quantify the relative impact of ICH and ischemic stroke and derive a ratio that allows decision analysis without microsimulation. Methods: We created a microsimulation model to predict QALYs lost due to ICH and ischemic stroke. We then applied a meta-model to predict the ratio of QALYs lost from ICH relative to ischemic stroke. Results: Previously-used weighting ratios (1.5) are close to our derived mean weighting ratio (1.60). However, the weighting ratio of QALYs lost from ICH relative to ischemic stroke is sensitive to age and discount rate. Patients at younger ages have higher mean weighting ratios, as do patients with higher discount rates. Conclusions: The ratio of QALYs lost to ICH relative to ischemic stroke varies with age and discount rate. We present a set of such ratios here for use in decision analyses that do not incorporate full microsimulation models. Use of weighting ratios that vary with age, rather than the current fixed ratios, has the potential to reduce age-based bias in decision-making regarding events with lifelong implications. In this case, use of dynamic ratios may change anticoagulation recommendations for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at relatively low stroke risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Like a growing number of rapidly developing countries, India has begun to develop a system for large-scale community-based screening for diabetes. We sought to identify the implications of using alternative screening instruments to detect people with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes among diverse populations across India. Methods and Findings: We developed and validated a microsimulation model that incorporated data from 58 studies from across the country into a nationally representative sample of Indians aged 25–65 y old. We estimated the diagnostic and health system implications of three major survey-based screening instruments and random glucometer-based screening. Of the 567 million Indians eligible for screening, depending on which of four screening approaches is utilized, between 158 and 306 million would be expected to screen as “high risk” for type 2 diabetes, and be referred for confirmatory testing. Between 26 million and 37 million of these people would be expected to meet international diagnostic criteria for diabetes, but between 126 million and 273 million would be “false positives.” The ratio of false positives to true positives varied from 3.9 (when using random glucose screening) to 8.2 (when using a survey-based screening instrument) in our model. The cost per case found would be expected to be from US$5.28 (when using random glucose screening) to US$17.06 (when using a survey-based screening instrument), presenting a total cost of between US$169 and US$567 million. The major limitation of our analysis is its dependence on published cohort studies that are unlikely fully to capture the poorest and most rural areas of the country. Because these areas are thought to have the lowest diabetes prevalence, this may result in overestimation of the efficacy and health benefits of screening. Conclusions: Large-scale community-based screening is anticipated to produce a large number of false-positive results, particularly if using currently available survey-based screening instruments. Resource allocators should consider the health system burden of screening and confirmatory testing when instituting large-scale community-based screening for diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A critical step toward tailoring effective interventions for heterogeneous and medically complex patients is to identify clinically meaningful subgroups on the basis of their comorbid conditions. We applied Item Response Theory (IRT), a potentially useful tool to identify clinically meaningful subgroups, to characterize phenotypes within a cohort of high-risk patients. This was a retrospective cohort study using 68,400 high-risk Veteran’s Health Administration (VHA) patients. Thirty-one physical and mental health diagnosis indicators based on ICD-9 codes from patients’ inpatient, outpatient VHA and VA-paid community care claims. Results revealed 6 distinct subgroups of high-risk patients were identified: substance use, complex mental health, complex diabetes, liver disease, cancer with cardiovascular disease, and cancer with mental health. Multinomial analyses showed that subgroups significantly differed on demographic and utilization variables which underscored the uniqueness of the groups. Using IRT models with clinical diagnoses from electronic health records permitted identification of diagnostic constellations among otherwise undifferentiated high-risk patients. Recognizing distinct patient profiles provides a framework from which insights into medical complexity of high-risk patients can be explored and effective interventions can be tailored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims: Corticosteroids are effective for the short-term treatment of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Long-term use, however, is associated with significant adverse effects. To define the: (1) frequency and duration of corticosteroid use, (2) frequency of escalation to corticosteroid-sparing therapy, (3) rate of complications related to corticosteroid use, (4) rate of appropriate bone density measurements (dual energy X-ray absorptiometry [DEXA] scans), and (5) factors associated with escalation and DEXA scans. Methods: Retrospective review of Veterans Health Administration (VHA) data from 2002–2010. Results: Of the 30,456 Veterans with IBD, 32% required at least one course of corticosteroids during the study time period, and 17% of the steroid users had a prolonged course. Among these patients, only 26.2% underwent escalation of therapy. Patients visiting a gastroenterology (GI) physician were significantly more likely to receive corticosteroid-sparing medications. Factors associated with corticosteroid-sparing medications included younger age (OR = 0.96 per year,95%CI:0.95, 0.97), male gender (OR = 2.00,95%CI:1.16,3.46), GI visit during the corticosteroid evaluation period (OR = 8.01,95%CI:5.85,10.95) and the use of continuous corticosteroids vs. intermittent corticosteroids (OR = 2.28,95%CI:1.33,3.90). Rates of complications per 1000 person-years after IBD diagnosis were higher among corticosteroid users (venous thromboembolism [VTE] 9.0%; fragility fracture 2.6%; Infections 54.3) than non-corticosteroid users (VTE 4.9%; fragility fracture 1.9%; Infections 26.9). DEXA scan utilization rates among corticosteroid users were only 7.8%. Conclusions: Prolonged corticosteroid therapy for the treatment of IBD is common and is associated with significant harm to patients. Patients with prolonged use of corticosteroids for IBD should be referred to gastroenterology early and universal efforts to improve the delivery of high quality care should be undertaken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]