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In response to the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), governments worldwide have introduced multiple restriction policies, known as non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the relative impact of control measures and the long-term causal contribution of each NPI are still a topic of debate. We present a method to rigorously study the effectiveness of interventions on the rate of the time-varying reproduction number Rt and on human mobility, considered here as a proxy measure of policy adherence and social distancing. We frame our model using a causal inference approach to quantify the impact of five governmental interventions introduced until June 2020 to control the outbreak in 113 countries: confinement, school closure, mask wearing, cultural closure, and work restrictions. Our results indicate that mobility changes are more accurately predicted when compared to reproduction number. All NPIs, except for mask wearing, significantly affected human mobility trends. From these, schools and cultural closure mandates showed the largest effect on social distancing. We also found that closing schools, issuing face mask usage, and work-from-home mandates also caused a persistent reduction on Rt after their initiation, which was not observed with the other social distancing measures. Our results are robust and consistent across different model specifications and can shed more light on the impact of individual NPIs., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

One of the goals of cancer research is to identify a set of genes that cause or control disease progression. However, although multiple such gene sets were published, these are usually in very poor agreement with each other, and very few of the genes proved to be functional therapeutic targets. Furthermore, recent findings from a breast cancer gene-expression cohort showed that sets of genes selected randomly can be used to predict survival with a much higher probability than expected. These results imply that many of the genes identified in breast cancer gene expression analysis may not be causal of cancer progression, even though they can still be highly predictive of prognosis. We performed a similar analysis on all the cancer types available in the cancer genome atlas (TCGA), namely, estimating the predictive power of random gene sets for survival. Our work shows that most cancer types exhibit the property that random selections of genes are more predictive of survival than expected. In contrast to previous work, this property is not removed by using a proliferation signature, which implies that proliferation may not always be the confounder that drives this property. We suggest one possible solution in the form of data-driven sub-classification to reduce this property significantly. Our results suggest that the predictive power of random gene sets may be used to identify the existence of sub-classes in the data, and thus may allow better understanding of patient stratification. Furthermore, by reducing the observed bias this may allow more direct identification of biologically relevant, and potentially causal, genes.

Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in women and is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths annually. As with most cancers, it is a heterogeneous disease and different breast cancer subtypes are treated differently. Understanding the difference in prognosis for breast cancer based on its molecular and phenotypic features is one avenue for improving treatment by matching the proper treatment with molecular subtypes of the disease. In this work, we employed a competition-based approach to modeling breast cancer prognosis using large datasets containing genomic and clinical information and an online real-time leaderboard program used to speed feedback to the modeling team and to encourage each modeler to work towards achieving a higher ranked submission. We find that machine learning methods combined with molecular features selected based on expert prior knowledge can improve survival predictions compared to current best-in-class methodologies and that ensemble models trained across multiple user submissions systematically outperform individual models within the ensemble. We also find that model scores are highly consistent across multiple independent evaluations. This study serves as the pilot phase of a much larger competition open to the whole research community, with the goal of understanding general strategies for model optimization using clinical and molecular profiling data and providing an objective, transparent system for assessing prognostic models.

In the first few hours following Newcastle disease viral infection of human monocyte-derived dendritic cells, the induction of IFNB1 is extremely low and the secreted type I interferon response is below the limits of ELISA assay. However, many interferon-induced genes are activated at this time, for example DDX58 (RIGI), which in response to viral RNA induces IFNB1. We investigated whether the early induction of IFNBI in only a small percentage of infected cells leads to low level IFN secretion that then induces IFN-responsive genes in all cells. We developed an agent-based mathematical model to explore the IFNBI and DDX58 temporal dynamics. Simulations showed that a small number of early responder cells provide a mechanism for efficient and controlled activation of the DDX58-IFNBI positive feedback loop. The model predicted distributions of single cell responses that were confirmed by single cell mRNA measurements. The results suggest that large cell-to-cell variation plays an important role in the early innate immune response, and that the variability is essential for the efficient activation of the IFNB1 based feedback loop.

Many biological systems consist of multiple cells that interact by secretion and binding of diffusing molecules, thus coordinating responses across cells. Techniques for simulating systems coupling extracellular and intracellular processes are very limited. Here we present an efficient method to stochastically simulate diffusion processes, which at the same time allows synchronization between internal and external cellular conditions through a modification of Gillespie's chemical reaction algorithm. Individual cells are simulated as independent agents, and each cell accurately reacts to changes in its local environment affected by diffusing molecules. Such a simulation provides time-scale separation between the intra-cellular and extra-cellular processes. We use our methodology to study how human monocyte-derived dendritic cells alert neighboring cells about viral infection using diffusing interferon molecules. A subpopulation of the infected cells reacts early to the infection and secretes interferon into the extra-cellular medium, which helps activate other cells. Findings predicted by our simulation and confirmed by experimental results suggest that the early activation is largely independent of the fraction of infected cells and is thus both sensitive and robust. The concordance with the experimental results supports the value of our method for overcoming the challenges of accurately simulating multiscale biological signaling systems., (© 2011 Shimoni et al.)

Improving the ability to reverse engineer biochemical networks is a major goal of systems biology. Lesions in signaling networks lead to alterations in gene expression, which in principle should allow network reconstruction. However, the information about the activity levels of signaling proteins conveyed in overall gene expression is limited by the complexity of gene expression dynamics and of regulatory network topology. Two observations provide the basis for overcoming this limitation: a. genes induced without de-novo protein synthesis (early genes) show a linear accumulation of product in the first hour after the change in the cell's state; b. The signaling components in the network largely function in the linear range of their stimulus-response curves. Therefore, unlike most genes or most time points, expression profiles of early genes at an early time point provide direct biochemical assays that represent the activity levels of upstream signaling components. Such expression data provide the basis for an efficient algorithm (Plato's Cave algorithm; PLACA) to reverse engineer functional signaling networks. Unlike conventional reverse engineering algorithms that use steady state values, PLACA uses stimulated early gene expression measurements associated with systematic perturbations of signaling components, without measuring the signaling components themselves. Besides the reverse engineered network, PLACA also identifies the genes detecting the functional interaction, thereby facilitating validation of the predicted functional network. Using simulated datasets, the algorithm is shown to be robust to experimental noise. Using experimental data obtained from gonadotropes, PLACA reverse engineered the interaction network of six perturbed signaling components. The network recapitulated many known interactions and identified novel functional interactions that were validated by further experiment. PLACA uses the results of experiments that are feasible for any signaling network to predict the functional topology of the network and to identify novel relationships.

Background: DNA damage in Escherichia coli evokes a response mechanism called the SOS response. The genetic circuit of this mechanism includes the genes recA and lexA, which regulate each other via a mixed feedback loop involving transcriptional regulation and protein-protein interaction. Under normal conditions, recA is transcriptionally repressed by LexA, which also functions as an auto-repressor. In presence of DNA damage, RecA proteins recognize stalled replication forks and participate in the DNA repair process. Under these conditions, RecA marks LexA for fast degradation. Generally, such mixed feedback loops are known to exhibit either bi-stability or a single steady state. However, when the dynamics of the SOS system following DNA damage was recently studied in single cells, ordered peaks were observed in the promoter activity of both genes (Friedman et al., 2005, PLoS Biol. 3(7):e238). This surprising phenomenon was masked in previous studies of cell populations. Previous attempts to explain these results harnessed additional genes to the system and deployed complex deterministic mathematical models that were only partially successful in explaining the results., Methodology/principal Findings: Here we apply stochastic methods, which are better suited for dynamic simulations of single cells. We show that a simple model, involving only the basic components of the circuit, is sufficient to explain the peaks in the promoter activities of recA and lexA. Notably, deterministic simulations of the same model do not produce peaks in the promoter activities., Conclusion/significance: We conclude that the double negative mixed feedback loop with auto-repression accounts for the experimentally observed peaks in the promoter activities. In addition to explaining the experimental results, this result shows that including additional regulations in a mixed feedback loop may dramatically change the dynamic functionality of this regulatory module. Furthermore, our results suggests that stochastic fluctuations strongly affect the qualitative behavior of important regulatory modules even under biologically relevant conditions, thus emphasizing the importance of stochastic analysis of regulatory circuits.