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Background: Leprosy remains concentrated among the poorest communities in low-and middle-income countries and it is one of the primary infectious causes of disability. Although there have been increasing advances in leprosy surveillance worldwide, leprosy underreporting is still common and can hinder decision-making regarding the distribution of financial and health resources and thereby limit the effectiveness of interventions. In this study, we estimated the proportion of unreported cases of leprosy in Brazilian microregions. Methodology/Principal findings: Using data collected between 2007 to 2015 from each of the 557 Brazilian microregions, we applied a Bayesian hierarchical model that used the presence of grade 2 leprosy-related physical disabilities as a direct indicator of delayed diagnosis and a proxy for the effectiveness of local leprosy surveillance program. We also analyzed some relevant factors that influence spatial variability in the observed mean incidence rate in the Brazilian microregions, highlighting the importance of socioeconomic factors and how they affect the levels of underreporting. We corrected leprosy incidence rates for each Brazilian microregion and estimated that, on average, 33,252 (9.6%) new leprosy cases went unreported in the country between 2007 to 2015, with this proportion varying from 8.4% to 14.1% across the Brazilian States. Conclusions/Significance: The magnitude and distribution of leprosy underreporting were adequately explained by a model using Grade 2 disability as a marker for the ability of the system to detect new missing cases. The percentage of missed cases was significant, and efforts are warranted to improve leprosy case detection. Our estimates in Brazilian microregions can be used to guide effective interventions, efficient resource allocation, and target actions to mitigate transmission. Author summary: Leprosy remains an important public health problem that affects vulnerable populations in low- and middle-income countries. In this study, we estimated how many cases were not detected in each Brazilian microregion by the surveillance system during the period of 2007 until 2015. Using a mathematical model, we found out that around 10% of the estimated number of cases occurring in the country in the study period were missed by the health system, and this represented over 33 thousand cases overall. These findings are important as undetected and therefore untreated cases can progress and lead to lifelong disabilities. In addition, missing cases prevents the health system from evaluating exposed contacts, which could lead to further delays in diagnosis. Describing the magnitude, location and correlates of leprosy underreporting at the microregional level will inform the efforts of policymakers and program managers in designing interventions and allocating resources to achieve leprosy control targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors associated with developing leprosy among the contacts of newly-diagnosed leprosy patients. Methodology/Principal Findings: A total of 6,158 contacts and 1,201 leprosy patients of the cohort who were diagnosed and treated at the Leprosy Laboratory of Fiocruz from 1987 to 2007 were included. The contact variables analyzed were sex; age; educational and income levels; blood relationship, if any, to the index case; household or non-household relationship; length of time of close association with the index case; receipt of bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BGG) vaccine and presence of BCG scar. Index cases variables included sex, age, educational level, family size, bacillary load, and disability grade. Multilevel logistic regression with random intercept was applied. Among the co-prevalent cases, the leprosy-related variables that remained associated with leprosy included type of household contact, [odds ratio (OR) = 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.73] and consanguinity with the index case, (OR = 1.89, 95% CI: 1.42–2.51). With respect to the index case variables, the factors associated with leprosy among contacts included up to 4 years of schooling and 4 to 10 years of schooling (OR = 2.72, 95% CI: 1.54–4.79 and 2.40, 95% CI: 1.30–4.42, respectively) and bacillary load, which increased the chance of leprosy among multibacillary contacts for those with a bacillary index of one to three and greater than three (OR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.19–2.17 and OR: 4.07–95% CI: 2.73, 6.09), respectively. Among incident cases, household exposure was associated with leprosy (OR = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.29–2.98), compared with non-household exposure. Among the index case risk factors, an elevated bacillary load was the only variable associated with leprosy in the contacts. Conclusions/Significance: Biological and social factors appear to be associated with leprosy among co-prevalent cases, whereas the factors related to the infectious load and proximity with the index case were associated with leprosy that appeared in the incident cases during follow-up. Author Summary: Leprosy is an infectious disease that can lead to physical disabilities, social stigma, and great hardship. Transmitted from person to person, it is still endemic in developing countries, like Brazil and India. Effective treatment has been available since 1960, but early diagnosis of the disease remains the most effective way to stop the transmission chain and avoid late diagnoses and subsequent disabilities. Knowledge of the risk factors for leprosy can facilitate early detection; therefore, our study aimed to investigate the factors presented by leprosy patients and their contacts, who are considered at highest risk of contracting the disease. We studied 6,158 contacts of 1,201 patients under surveillance from 1987 to 2007 in a Public Health Care Center in the City of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We evaluated the ways patient and contact demographics and epidemiological characteristics were associated with the detection of leprosy. Statistical analyses took into account both individual and group characteristics and their interrelationships. The main characteristics facilitating the contraction of leprosy among contacts were shown to be consanguinity and household association. Conversely, the bacillary load index of leprosy patients was the principle factor leading to disease among their contacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]