Search

Vaccination was a key intervention in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic globally. In early 2021, Norway faced significant regional variations in COVID-19 incidence and prevalence, with large differences in population density, necessitating efficient vaccine allocation to reduce infections and severe outcomes. This study explored alternative vaccination strategies to minimize health outcomes (infections, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, deaths) by varying regions prioritized, extra doses prioritized, and implementation start time. Using two models (individual-based and meta-population), we simulated COVID-19 transmission during the primary vaccination period in Norway, covering the first 7 months of 2021. We investigated alternative strategies to allocate more vaccine doses to regions with a higher force of infection. We also examined the robustness of our results and highlighted potential structural differences between the two models. Our findings suggest that early vaccine prioritization could reduce COVID-19 related health outcomes by 8% to 20% compared to a baseline strategy without geographic prioritization. For minimizing infections, hospitalizations, or ICU admissions, the best strategy was to initially allocate all available vaccine doses to fewer high-risk municipalities, comprising approximately one-fourth of the population. For minimizing deaths, a moderate level of geographic prioritization, with approximately one-third of the population receiving doubled doses, gave the best outcomes by balancing the trade-off between vaccinating younger people in high-risk areas and older people in low-risk areas. The actual strategy implemented in Norway was a two-step moderate level aimed at maintaining the balance and ensuring ethical considerations and public trust. However, it did not offer significant advantages over the baseline strategy without geographic prioritization. Earlier implementation of geographic prioritization could have more effectively addressed the main wave of infections, substantially reducing the national burden of the pandemic. Author summary: We utilized two geographic-age-structured models (an individual-based model and a meta-population model) to conduct a scenario-based analysis aimed at evaluating strategies for geographic prioritization of COVID-19 vaccines in Norway. By reconstructing the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission from January to July of 2021, we compared various alternative vaccination strategies through model simulations, given the limited number of vaccine doses. We found that prioritization of vaccines based on geographic location, alongside considering age, was preferable to a baseline strategy without geographic prioritization. We assessed the selection of which municipalities to prioritize and the degree of prioritization they should receive. Our findings indicated that optimal strategies depended on whether the aim was to minimize infections, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, or deaths. Trade-offs in infection growth between municipalities and subsequent risk-class allocations (such as age groups) were the primary factors influencing optimal vaccine allocation. Furthermore, we found that earlier implementation of most geographic prioritization strategies was advantageous in reducing the overall burden of COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrothermal vents are extreme environments, where abundant communities of copepods with contrasting life history traits co-exist along hydrothermal gradients. Here, we discuss how these traits may contribute to the observed differences in molecular diversity and population genetic structure. Samples were collected from vent locations across the globe including active ridges and back-arc basins and compared to existing deep-sea hydrothermal vent and shallow water data, covering a total of 22 vents and 3 non-vent sites. A total of 806 sequences of mtDNA from the Cox1 gene were used to reconstruct the phylogeny, haplotypic relationship and demography within vent endemic copepods (Dirivultidae, Stygiopontius spp.) and non-vent-endemic copepods (Ameiridae, Miraciidae and Laophontidae). A species complex within Stygiopontius lauensis was studied across five pacific back-arc basins at eight hydrothermal vent fields, with cryptic species being restricted to the basins they were sampled from. Copepod populations from the Lau, North Fiji and Woodlark basins are undergoing demographic expansion, possibly linked to an increase in hydrothermal activity in the last 10 kya. Highly structured populations of Amphiascus aff. varians 2 were also observed from the Lau to the Woodlark basins with populations also undergoing expansion. Less abundant harpacticoids exhibit little to no population structure and stable populations. This study suggests that similarities in genetic structure and demography may arise in vent-associated copepods despite having different life history traits. As structured meta-populations may be at risk of local extinction should major anthropogenic impacts, such as deep-sea mining, occur, we highlight the importance of incorporating a trait-based approach to investigate patterns of genetic connectivity and demography, particularly regarding area-based management tools and environmental management plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

f-statistics have emerged as a first line of analysis for making inferences about demographic history from genome-wide data. Not only are they guaranteed to allow robust tests of the fits of proposed models of population history to data when analyzing full genome sequencing data—that is, all single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the individuals being analyzed—but they are also guaranteed to allow robust tests of models for SNPs ascertained as polymorphic in a population that is an outgroup in a phylogenetic sense to all groups being analyzed. True "outgroup ascertainment" is in practice impossible in humans because our species has arisen from a substructured ancestral population that does not descend from a homogeneous ancestral population going back many hundreds of thousands of years into the past. However, initial studies suggested that non-outgroup-ascertainment schemes might produce robust enough results using f-statistics, and that motivated widespread fitting of models to data using non-outgroup-ascertained SNP panels such as the "Affymetrix Human Origins array" which has been genotyped on thousands of modern individuals from hundreds of populations, or the "1240k" in-solution enrichment reagent which has been the source of about 70% of published genome-wide data for ancient humans. In this study, we show that while analyses of population history using such panels work well for studies of relationships among non-African populations and one African outgroup, when co-modeling more than one sub-Saharan African and/or archaic human groups (Neanderthals and Denisovans), fitting of f-statistics to such SNP sets is expected to frequently lead to false rejection of true demographic histories, and failure to reject incorrect models. Analyzing panels of SNPs polymorphic in archaic humans, which has been suggested as a solution for the ascertainment problem, has limited statistical power and retains important biases. However, by carrying out simulations of diverse demographic histories, we show that bias in inferences based on f-statistics can be minimized by ascertaining on variants common in a union of diverse African groups; such ascertainment retains high statistical power while allowing co-analysis of archaic and modern groups. Author summary: Archaeogenetic research on humans remains heavily biased towards Europe, Central and East Asia due to poor preservation of ancient DNA in hot climate. However, the number of studies focused on the history of African human populations is growing. Due to the DNA preservation problems, using targeted enrichment for selected variable loci is almost unavoidable in archaeogenetic research focused on Africans. Moreover, poor quality of archaeogenetic data makes the analytical toolkit rather limited: it is often restricted to methods based on f-statistics, PCA, and ADMIXTURE. It is known that f-statistics may be biased when they are calculated not on whole-genome data, but on sets of SNPs selected in a non-random way. Although this is common knowledge, biases affecting f-statistics on such SNP sets ("ascertainment biases") remain poorly explored in practice, and our study is designed to fill this gap. We investigate biases affecting individual f4-statistics and fits of admixture graph models on simulated and real data, explore dozens of ascertainment schemes, and provide a set of guidelines for minimizing bias. We show that ascertainment bias is particularly strong in situations when several African populations are co-analyzed with non-African and archaic (Neanderthal or Denisovan) human groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been 23 years since the conservation status of highland tropical pitcher plant Nepenthes talangensis was assessed in 2000. A number of existing threats (anthropogenic and environmental) may be increasing the risk of extinction for the species. A better understanding of the ecology and conservation needs of the species is required to manage the wild populations. Specifically, better information related to population distributions, ecological requirements, priority conservation areas, the impact of future climate on suitable habitat, and current population structure is needed to properly assess extinction risks. A better understanding of the requirements of the species in its natural habitat would benefit for successfully securing the species at Botanic Gardens. We have identified 14 new occurrence records of N. talangensis in Mount Talang. Study on the ecological requirement using Random Forest (RF) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) suggested that elevation, canopy cover, soil pH, and slope are four important variables. The population of N. talangensis was dominated by juvenile and mature (sterile) individuals, we found only a few mature males (7 individuals) and females (4 individuals) in the sampled areas. Our modelling of current conditions predicted that there were 1,076 ha of suitable habitat to very highly suitable habitat in Mount Talang, which is 14.7% of the total area. Those predicted habitats ranged in elevation from 1,740–2,558 m. Suitable habitat in 2100 was predicted to decrease in extent and be at higher elevation in the less extreme climate change scenario (SSP 1–2.6) and extreme climate change scenario (SSP 5–8.5). We projected larger habitat loss in the SSP 5–8.5 compared to the SSP 1–2.6 climate change scenario.. We proposed the category CR B1ab(iii,v), C2a(ii) as the new conservation status of N. talangensis. The status is a higher category of threat compared to the current status of the species (EN C2b, ver 2.3). Nepenthes talangensis seedlings and cuttings established in a Botanic Garden have relatively high survival rate at about 83.4%. Sixty percent of the seeds germinated in growth media successfully grew to become seedlings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite evidence of their importance to marine ecosystems, at least 32% of all chondrichthyan species are estimated or assessed as threatened with extinction. In addition to the logistical difficulties of effectively conserving wide-ranging marine species, shark conservation is believed to have been hindered in the past by public perceptions of sharks as dangerous to humans. Shark Week is a high-profile, international programming event that has potentially enormous influence on public perceptions of sharks, shark research, shark researchers, and shark conservation. However, Shark Week has received regular criticism for poor factual accuracy, fearmongering, bias, and inaccurate representations of science and scientists. This research analyzes the content and titles of Shark Week episodes across its entire 32 years of programming to determine if there are trends in species covered, research techniques featured, expert identity, conservation messaging, type of programming, and portrayal of sharks. We analyzed titles from 272 episodes (100%) of Shark Week programming and the content of all available (201; 73.9%) episodes. Our data demonstrate that the majority of episodes are not focused on shark bites, although such shows are common and many Shark Week programs frame sharks around fear, risk, and adrenaline. While criticisms of disproportionate attention to particular charismatic species (e.g. great whites, bull sharks, and tiger sharks) are accurate and supported by data, 79 shark species have been featured briefly at least once. Shark Week's depictions of research and of experts are biased towards a small set of (typically visual and expensive) research methodologies and (mostly white, mostly male) experts, including presentation of many white male non-scientists as scientific experts. While sharks are more often portrayed negatively than positively, limited conservation messaging does appear in 53% of episodes analyzed. Results suggest that as a whole, while Shark Week is likely contributing to the collective public perception of sharks as bad, even relatively small alterations to programming decisions could substantially improve the presentation of sharks and shark science and conservation issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding local knowledge about wild edible plants (WEP) is essential for assessing plant services, reducing the risks of knowledge extinction, recognizing the rights of local communities, and improving biodiversity conservation efforts. However, the knowledge of specific groups such as women or children tends to be under-represented in local ecological knowledge (LEK) research. In this study, we explore how knowledge of WEP is distributed across gender and life stages (adults/children) among Betsileo people in the southern highlands of Madagascar. Using data from free listings with 42 adults and 40 children, gender-balanced, we show that knowledge on WEP differs widely across gender and life stage. In addition, we find that children have extended knowledge of WEP while reporting different species than adults. Women's knowledge specializes in herbaceous species (versus other plant life forms), while men's knowledge specializes in endemic species (versus native or introduced). Finally, we find that introduced species are more frequently cited by children, while adults cite more endemic species. We discuss the LEK differentiation mechanisms and the implications of acquiring life stage's knowledge in the highland landscapes of Madagascar. Given our findings, we highlight the importance of considering groups with under-represented knowledge repositories, such as children and women, into future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the diversity of the so-called 'Moroccan Royal lions' using genealogical information. Lions are no longer extant in North Africa, but the previous wild population was an important element of the now-recognised northern subspecies (Panthera leo leo) that ranged across West Africa, North Africa and the Middle East into India. The remaining captive population of 'Moroccan Royal lions' seems to be significantly endangered by the loss of diversity due to the effective population size decrease. The pedigree file of this captive lion population consisted of 454 individuals, while the reference population included 98 animals (47 males and 51 females). The completeness of the pedigree data significantly decreased with an increasing number of generations. The highest percentage of pedigree completeness (over 70%) was achieved in the first generation of the reference population. Pedigree-based parameters derived from the common ancestor and gene origin were used to estimate the state of diversity. In the reference population, the average inbreeding coefficient was 2.14%, while the individual increase in inbreeding over generations was 2.31%. Overall, the reference population showed lower average inbreeding and average relatedness compared with the pedigree file. The number of founders (47), the effective number of founders (24) and the effective number of ancestors (22) were estimated in the reference population. The effective population size of 14.02 individuals confirms the critically endangered status of the population and rapid loss of diversity in the future. Thus, continuous monitoring of the genetic diversity of the 'Moroccan Royal lion' group is required, especially for long-term conservation management purposes, as it would be an important captive group should further DNA studies establish an affinity to P. leo leo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population decline and extinction risk of river dolphins are primarily associated with flow alteration. Previous studies predominantly highlighted maintenance of adequate flow for low water seasons when habitats contract and the risk of local extinction escalates. Although river dolphins are sensitive to reduction in river flow, no studies quantify the relationships between flow and ecology of river dolphins to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of flow alteration. We quantify the relationships between flow and the ecology of river cetaceans concerning Ganges River dolphins (GRD; Platanista gangetica gangetica) usable area availability (AWS) for the low water season at wider flows (50–575 m3/s) at finer spatial and temporal scales. This study reveals that distribution of area usable to GRD is highly regulated by the adequate flow and river attributes (velocity and depth) interactions that likely offer energetically efficient modes of locomotion to GRD, suggesting the hydro-physical environment as a major determinant of river dolphin distribution and abundance. Flow and AWS relationships indicate that the flow during the dry season negatively contributed to AWS, whereas that of pre-monsoon maximized the AWS, suggesting that modifying flow regimes does alter in-stream habitats at varying spatial scales and may influence life-history strategies. Substantial fragmentation in suitable pool availability and loss of longitudinal connectivity exhibited by dry season flow suggested a higher risk of adverse biological effects during the dry season, which may reduce population viability by reducing survivorship and reproduction failure. Owing to river dolphins' dependence on the attribute of freshwater flow, they can be expected to be more affected by flow regulations as interactive effects. Considering the seasonal effects and changes in the availability of usable areas by flow alteration, adopting effective habitat retention plans by water-based development projects appears critical to avoid further ecological risks in aquatic species conservation. Identifying priority riverscapes for river cetaceans and prioritizing investment opportunities is an essential first step towards effective riverine cetacean conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Translocations are globally a popular tool used with the intention of improving threatened species conservation and re-establishing ecosystem function. While practitioners strive for successful outcomes the failure rate of translocations continues to be high. We demonstrate how predictive modelling can contribute to more informed decision making and hence potentially improve the success rate of translocation programs. Two species, the Djoongari (Shark Bay mouse) Pseudomys fieldi and the golden bandicoot Isoodon auratus barrowensis, were introduced independently to Doole Island in the Exmouth Gulf of Western Australia. We used population viability analysis to critique the outcomes of these translocations and provide an example of how this tool can be incorporated with expert knowledge to predict likely outcomes of translocations. Djoongari did not establish on the island after seven translocations over nine years, while golden bandicoots established a population after just one release event. Retrospective population viability analysis (of data that was unavailable prior to the translocations) predicted and clarified the reasons behind the outcomes of both translocations. Golden bandicoots have considerably higher demographic plasticity than Djoongari, which were never likely to establish on the island. We conclude that the failure of the Djoongari translocation was due to interactions between sparse habitat, native predators and cyclonic storm surges, whereas golden bandicoots have demonstrated habitat flexibility and an ability to recover from multiple natural disasters. As a result we (1) remind conservation planners of the importance of quantifying likely refuges and habitat availability at release sites, (2) suggest practitioners consider how different threats (including natural disasters) may interact at potential release sites and (3) advocate for the incorporation of predictive modelling during the planning stages of translocations, particularly for conservation introductions where no precedent exists for the species' survival at a particular location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

'Mexical' scrubland is a sclerophyllous evergreen Mediterranean-like vegetation occurring in the leeward slopes of the main Mexican mountain ranges, under tropical climate. This biome occupies an elevational range approximately from 1900 to 2600 meters above sea level, which frequently is the upper-most part of the mountains range. This puts it at risk of extinction in a scenario of global warming in which an upward retraction of this type of vegetation is expected. The Mexical remains one of the least studied ecosystems in Mexico. For instance, nothing is known about pollinator fauna of this vegetation. Our main objective is to make a first insight into the taxonomic identity of the bee fauna that inhabits this biome, and to study how it is distributed along the elevational gradient that it occupies. Our results highlight that elevation gradient negatively affects bee species richness and that this relationship is strongly mediated by temperature. Bee abundance had no significant pattern along elevational gradient, but shows a significant relationship with flower density. Interestingly, and contrary to previous works, we obtained a different pattern for bee richness and bee abundance. Bee community composition changed strongly along elevation gradient, mainly in relation to temperature and flower density. In a global warming scenario, as temperatures increases, species with cold preferences, occupying the highest part of the elevation gradient, are likely to suffer negative consequences (even extinction risk), if they are not flexible enough to adjust their physiology and/or some life-story traits to warmer conditions. Species occupying mid and lower elevations are likely to extend their range of elevational distribution towards higher ranges. This will foreseeably cause a new composition of species and a new scenario of interactions, the adjustment of which still leaves many unknowns to solve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) population in Nangunhe National Nature Reserve in China represents a unique evolutionary branch that has been isolated for more than twenty years from neighboring populations in Myanmar. The scarcity of information on population structure, sex ratio, and body condition makes it difficult to develop effective conservation measures for this elephant population. Twelve individuals were identified from 3,860 valid elephant images obtained from February to June 2018 (5,942 sampling effort nights) at 52 camera sites. Three adult females, three adult males, one subadult male, two juvenile females, two juvenile males and one male calf were identified. The ratio of adult females to adult males was 1:1, and the ratio of reproductive ability was 1:0.67, indicating the scarcity of reproductive females as an important limiting factor to population growth. A population density of 5.32 ± 1.56 elephants/100 km2 was estimated using Spatially Explicit Capture Recapture (SECR) models. The health condition of this elephant population was assessed using an 11-point scale of Body Condition Scoring (BCS). The average BCS was 5.75 (n = 12, range 2–9), with adult females scoring lower than adult males. This isolated population is extremely small and has an inverted pyramid age structure and therefore is at a high risk of extinction. We propose three plans to improve the survival of this population: improving the quality and quantity of food resources, removing fencing and establishing corridors between the east and wet parts of Nangunhe reserve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Asperula naufraga is a rare and threatened obligate chasmophyte, endemic to Zakynthos island (Ionian islands, Greece). In this study, we provide a combined approach (including monitoring of demographic and reproductive parameters and study of genetic diversity) to assess the current conservation status of the species and to estimate its future extinction risk. The five subpopulations of A. naufraga were monitored for five years (2014–2018). Population size markedly fluctuated between 68–130 mature individuals during the monitoring period. The extent of occurrence (EOO) was estimated at 28.7 km2 and the area of occupancy (AOO) was 8 km2. Stage-structure recordings were similar for all subpopulations, characterized by high proportions of adult and senescent individuals, following a common pattern, which has been observed in other cliff-dwelling plants. Preliminary genetic analysis with SSRs markers revealed low heterozygosity within subpopulations and significant departure from H-W equilibrium, which combined with small population size suggest increased threat of genetic diversity loss. Our results indicate that the species should be placed in the Critically Endangered (CR) IUCN threat category, while according to Population Viability Analysis results its extinction risk increases to 47.8% in the next 50 years. The small population size combined with large fluctuations in its size, low recruitment and low genetic diversity, indicate the need of undertaking effective in situ and ex situ conservation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Positive interactions, including intraspecies cooperation and interspecies mutualisms, play crucial roles in shaping the structure and function of many ecosystems, ranging from plant communities to the human microbiome. While the evolutionary forces that form and maintain positive interactions have been investigated extensively, the influence of positive interactions on the ability of species to adapt to new environments is still poorly understood. Here, we use numerical simulations and theoretical analyses to study how positive interactions impact the likelihood that populations survive after an environment deteriorates, such that survival in the new environment requires quick adaptation via the rise of new mutants—a scenario known as evolutionary rescue. We find that the probability of evolutionary rescue in populations engaged in positive interactions is reduced significantly. In cooperating populations, this reduction is largely due to the fact that survival may require at least a minimal number of individuals, meaning that adapted mutants must arise and spread before the population declines below this threshold. In mutualistic populations, the rescue probability is decreased further due to two additional effects—the need for both mutualistic partners to adapt to the new environment, and competition between the two species. Finally, we show that the presence of cheaters reduces the likelihood of evolutionary rescue even further, making it extremely unlikely. These results indicate that while positive interactions may be beneficial in stable environments, they can hinder adaptation to changing environments and thereby elevate the risk of population collapse. Furthermore, these results may hint at the selective pressures that drove co-dependent unicellular species to form more adaptable organisms able to differentiate into multiple phenotypes, including multicellular life. Author summary: Many ecosystems are exposed to rapidly changing environmental conditions, from global warming to overuse of antibiotics in medicine and agriculture. Therefore, there is great interest in elucidating the factors that affect the ability of ecosystems to adapt to these changes. While many such factors have been recently investigated, the effect of interactions within a community on its ability to adapt remain largely unexplored. In this work, we focus on the effect of positive interactions, in the form of cooperation between individual or different species, on the ability of communities to adapt to new environments. Using simulations and theoretical analysis, we find that positive interactions significantly reduce the probability of survival of cooperative communities in changing environments, elevating the risk of populations' extinction. Furthermore, we suggest that the need for an adaptable solution of cooperation could have played a part in the circumstances leading to the transition between unicellular and multicellular life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective biodiversity conservation planning starts with genetic characterization within and among focal populations, in order to understand the likely impact of threats for ensuring the long-term viability of a species. The Wonder Gecko, Teratoscincus keyserlingii, is one of nine members of the genus. This species is distributed in Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, with a small isolated population in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where it is classified nationally as Critically Endangered. Within its Arabian range, anthropogenic activity is directly linked to the species' decline, with highly localised and severely fragmented populations. Here we describe the evolutionary history of Teratoscincus, by reconstructing its phylogenetic relationships and estimating its divergence times and ancestral biogeography. For conservation implications of T. keyserlingii we evaluate the genetic structure of the Arabian population using genomic data. This study supports the monophyly of most species and reveals considerable intraspecific variability in T. microlepis and T. keyserlingii, which necessitate broad systematic revisions. The UAE population of T. keyserlingii likely arrived from southern Iran during the Pleistocene and no internal structure was recovered within, implying a single population status. Regional conservation of T. keyserlingii requires improved land management and natural habitat restoration in the species' present distribution, and expansion of current protected areas, or establishment of new areas with suitable habitat for the species, mostly in northern Abu Dhabi Emirate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In pre-colonial and colonial times Côte d'Ivoire probably hosted one of the largest elephant populations in West Africa, resulting in the country's name Côte d'Ivoire (in English Ivory Coast) by French settlers. Numbers declined and by the early 90s it was estimated that the total number of both savannah and forest elephants had reached 63 to 360 elephants in the entire country. Here we present updated information on the distribution and conservation status of forest elephant in Côte d'Ivoire based on multiple sources—dung counts on line transects, records of human–elephant conflict, media reports, sign and interview surveys—obtained during the period 2011–2017. We used Pearson correlation to determine the correlation between the presence of forest elephant and site variables (size of the forest, percentage of area converted into plantation, size of the forest left, size of human population inside the PA, poaching index, distance to the nearest road, population density in the Department, level of protection of the PA). To examine the effect of ecological traits on elephant extirpation, we used Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to check for multicollinearity among variables. Based on dung count elephant presence was confirmed in only 4 of the 25 protected areas surveyed. PAs with higher level of protection have higher probability to be home of elephant population. The viability of these populations is uncertain, since they have a small size and are isolated. Aggressive conservation actions including law enforcement for the protection of their remaining habitat and ranger patrolling are needed to protect the remaining forest elephant populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bushmeat is a major source of protein and income in tropical regions but is often over-harvested. A better monitoring of bushmeat stocks could help achieve sustainability. We used a combination of simulations and transect survey data collected from blue duikers (Philantomba monticola) in the Lomako wildlife reserve, Democratic Republic of the Congo, to investigate the use of transect-based distance sampling to monitor bushmeat stocks. The comparison of dung piles and direct observations of duikers evidenced that animals avoided both the transects in the absence of observers, and the observers themselves. This type of behavioural response appeared common in a literature survey. It causes a negative bias in the estimates of population densities from the standard distance sampling methodology. This negative bias would lead to over-pessimistic predictions of population viability, especially if the behavioural response is more intense in the locations where the animals are hunted. In turn, this would lead to excessively conservative management recommendations. To correct for the effect of the behavioural response of the animals to either the transects or the observers, we recommend recording both the forward and perpendicular distances to the observers (2D distance sampling), not just the perpendicular distance. We also recommend multiple-observer protocols. As a cautionary note, we also demonstrate a scenario where the intensity of the behavioural response is too high to reliably estimate the abundance of the population. As a perspective, we outline the general principles of a local stakeholder-based program combining distance sampling with less intensive types of ecological indicators to monitor wildlife populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliably predicting sustainable exploitation levels for many tropical species subject to hunting remains a difficult task, largely because of the inherent uncertainty associated with estimating parameters related to both population dynamics and hunting pressure. Here, we investigate a modelling approach to support decisions in bushmeat management which explicitly considers parameter uncertainty. We apply the approach to duiker Cephalophus spp., assuming either a constant quota-based, or a constant proportional harvesting, strategy. Within each strategy, we evaluate different hunting levels in terms of both average yield and survival probability, over different time horizons. Under quota-based harvesting, considering uncertainty revealed a trade-off between yield and extinction probability that was not evident when ignoring uncertainty. The highest yield was returned by a quota that implied a 40% extinction risk, whereas limiting extinction risk to 10% reduced yield by 50%-70%. By contrast, under proportional harvesting, there was no trade-off between yield and extinction probability. The maximum proportion returned a yield comparable with the maximum possible under quota-based harvesting, but with extinction risk below 10%. However, proportional harvesting can be harder to implement in practice because it depends on an estimate of population size. In both harvesting approaches, predicted yields were highly right-skewed with median yields differing from mean yields, implying that decision outcomes depend on attitude to risk. The analysis shows how an explicit consideration of all available information, including uncertainty, can, as part of a wider process involving multiple stakeholders, help inform harvesting policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Individual growth rates are intrinsically related to survival and lifetime reproductive success and hence, are key determinants of population growth. Efforts to quantify age-size relationships are hampered by difficulties in aging individuals in wild populations. In addition, species with complex life-histories often show distinct shifts in growth that cannot be readily accommodated by traditional modelling techniques. Amphibians are often characterized by rapid larval growth, cessation of growth prior to metamorphosis, and resumption of growth in the adult stage. Compounding issues of non-linear growth, amphibian monitoring programs typically sample larval and adult populations using dissimilar methods. Here we present the first multistage growth model that combines disparate data collected across life-history stages. We model the growth of the endangered Reticulated Flatwoods Salamander, Ambystoma bishopi, in a Bayesian framework, that accounts for unknown ages, individual heterogeneity, and reconciles dip-net and drift fence sampling designs. Flatwoods salamanders achieve 60% of growth in the first 3 months of life but can survive for up to 13 years as a terrestrial adult. We find evidence for marked variability in growth rate, the timing and age at metamorphosis, and maximum size, within populations. Average size of metamorphs in a given year appeared strongly dependent on hydroperiod, and differed by >10mm across years with successful recruitment. In contrast, variation in the sizes of emerging metamorphs appeared relatively constant across years. An understanding of growth will contribute to the development of population viability analyses for flatwoods salamanders, will guide management actions, and will ultimately aid the recovery of the species. Our model formulation has broad applicability to amphibians, and likely any stage-structured organism in which homogenous data cannot be collected across life-stages. The tendency to ignore stage-structure or omit non-conforming data in growth analyses can no longer be afforded given the high stakes of management decisions, particularly for endangered or at-risk populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While metapopulation theory offers tractable means to understand extinction risks for patchily-distributed endangered species, real systems often feature discrepant patch quality and accessibility, complex influences of environmental stochasticity, and regional and temporal autocorrelation. Spatially structured metapopulation models are flexible and can use real data but often at the cost of generality. Particularly as resources for management of such species are often critically limited, endangered species management guided by metapopulation modeling requires incorporation of biological realism. Here we developed a flexible, stochastic spatially structured metapopulation model of the profoundly endangered Amargosa vole, a microtine rodent with an extant population of only a few hundred individuals within 1km2 of habitat in the Mojave Desert. Drought and water insecurity are increasing extinction risks considerably. We modelled subpopulation demographics using a Ricker-like model with migration implemented in an incidence function metapopulation model. A set of scenarios was used to assess the effect of anthropogenic stressors or management actions on expected time to extinction (Te) including: 1) wildland fire, 2) anthropogenically-mediated losses of hydrologic flows, 3) drought, 4) intentional expansion of existing patches into 'megamarshes' (i.e. via restoration/enhancement), and 5) additive impacts of multiple influences. In isolation, marshes could be sources or sinks, but spatial context within the full metapopulation including adjacency could alter relative impacts of subpopulations on all other subpopulations. The greatest reductions in persistence occurred in scenarios simulated with impacts from drought in combination with fire or anthropogenically-mediated losses of hydrologic flows. Optimal actions to improve persistence were to prevent distant and smaller marshes from acting as sinks through strategic creation of megamarshes that act as sources of voles and stepping-stones. This research reinforces that management resources expended without guidance from empirically-based modeling can actually harm species' persistence. This metapopulation-PVA tool could easily be implemented for other patchily-distributed endangered species and allow managers to maximize scarce resources to improve the likelihood of endangered species persistence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Casting light on how the interaction between protection and density dependence affects fish population dynamics is critical for understanding the effectiveness of marine protected areas (MPAs). We developed a framework based on nonparametric statistics, model selection and multi-model inference to contrast alternative hypotheses about the effect of density dependence on demographic dynamics under protected and unprotected conditions. We trialed it using a 12-year long time series of white seabream (Diplodus sargus sargus) population density within the no-take zone of Torre Guaceto MPA (Italy) and at two nearby unprotected locations. Then, we showed how the demographic models obtained can be used to assess the consequences of protection on population viability. Population dynamics were significantly influenced by fish density within the MPA and at one of the unprotected locations, where demography is possibly driven by directional recruitment subsidy from the MPA. The comparison of population growth rates within and outside the MPA suggests that in unprotected conditions the fishery may remove a fraction between 40 and 70% of the population each year. The population viability analysis pointed out that, while the probability that the population becomes depleted (i.e. undergoes a local, temporary quasi-extinction) is high in unprotected locations, it is negligible within the no-take zone of the MPA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wild boar (Sus scrofa) population spread into urban and periurban areas has exacerbated conflicts with humans. There is a need for planned wild boar management strategies, and Population viability analysis (PVA) combined with perturbation analyses allow the assessment of the management effort of control methods. Our study aims to develop stochastic predictive models of the increasing wild boar population of the 80 km2 peri-urban Mediterranean area of Collserola Natural Park (CNP), located near Barcelona, Spain, as well as assessing specific management measures (including reduced food availability, selective harvest, and reduction in fertility). Population parameters were estimated from previously published census and hunting data provided by the CNP and the local hunting administration. The results revealed that under the current conditions the CNP wild boar population will continue to increase. The most efficient strategy to reduce wild boar abundance was a combination of reducing supplementary anthropogenic food resources and selective removal of juvenile (<1 year) and yearling (1–2 years) wild boar. These strategies will probably be also the most efficient ones in other oversupplemented increasing wild boar populations in similar situations, although specific studies will be needed to fine-tune the best management option for each context. PVA allows the prediction of future population trends and the assessment of the efficacy and efficiency of potential management strategies before implementing management measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid and large-scale urbanization of peri-urban areas poses major and complex challenges for wildlife conservation. We used population viability analysis (PVA) to evaluate the influence of urban encroachment, fire, and fauna crossing structures, with and without accounting for inbreeding effects, on the metapopulation viability of a medium-sized ground-dwelling mammal, the southern brown bandicoot (Isoodon obesulus), in the rapidly expanding city of Perth, Australia. We surveyed two metapopulations over one and a half years, and parameterized the PVA models using largely field-collected data. The models revealed that spatial isolation imposed by housing and road encroachment has major impacts on I. obesulus. Although the species is known to persist in small metapopulations at moderate levels of habitat fragmentation, the models indicate that these populations become highly vulnerable to demographic decline, genetic deterioration, and local extinction under increasing habitat connectivity loss. Isolated metapopulations were also predicted to be highly sensitive to fire, with large-scale fires having greater negative impacts on population abundance than small-scale ones. To reduce the risk of decline and local extirpation of I. obesulus and other small- to medium-sized ground-dwelling mammals in urbanizing, fire prone landscapes, we recommend that remnant vegetation and vegetated, structurally-complex corridors between habitat patches be retained. Well-designed road underpasses can be effective to connect habitat patches and reduce the probability of inbreeding and genetic differentiation; however, adjustment of fire management practices to limit the size of unplanned fires and ensure the retention of long unburnt vegetation will also be required to ensure persistence. Our study supports the evidence that in rapidly urbanizing landscapes, a pro-active conservation approach is required that manages species at the metapopulation level and that prioritizes metapopulations and habitat with greater long-term probability of persistence and conservation capacity, respectively. This strategy may help us prevent future declines and local extirpations, and currently relatively common species from becoming rare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Setting aside protected areas is a key strategy for tackling biodiversity loss. Reserve effectiveness depends on the extent to which protected areas capture both known occurrences and areas likely to support the species. We assessed the effectiveness of the existing reserve network for Leadbeater’s Possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri) and other forest-dependent species, and compared the existing reserve system to a set of plausible reserve expansion options based on area targets implied in a recent Population Viability Analysis (PVA). The existing Leadbeater’s Reserve and surrounding reserve system captured 7.6% and 29.6% of cumulative habitat suitability, respectively, across the landscape. Expanded reserve scenarios captured 34% to 62% of cumulative habitat suitability. We found acute trade-offs between conserving Leadbeater’s Possum habitat and conserving habitat of other forest-dependent species. Our analysis provides a template for systematically expanding and evaluating reserve expansion options in terms of trade-offs between priority species’ needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At least 50 indigenous groups spread across lowland South America remain isolated and have only intermittent and mostly hostile interactions with the outside world. Except in emergency situations, the current policy of governments in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru towards isolated tribes is a “leave them alone” strategy, in which isolated groups are left uncontacted. However, these no-contact policies are based on the assumption that isolated populations are healthy and capable of persisting in the face of mounting external threats, and that they can maintain population viability in the long-term. Here, we test this assumption by tracking the sizes and movements of cleared horticultural areas made by 8 isolated groups over the last 10–14 years. We used deforestation data derived from remote sensing Landsat satellite sensors to identify clearings, and those were then validated and assessed with high-resolution imagery. We found only a single example of a relatively large and growing population (c. 50 cleared ha and 400 people), whereas all of the other 7 groups exhibited much smaller villages and gardens with no sizable growth through time. These results indicated that the smaller groups are critically endangered, and it prompts an urgent re-thinking of policies toward isolated populations, including plans for well-organized contacts that may help save lives and rescue isolated indigenous populations from imminent extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptive management provides a useful framework for managing natural resources in the face of uncertainty. An important component of adaptive management is identifying clear, measurable conservation objectives that reflect the desired outcomes of stakeholders. A common objective is to have a sustainable population, or metapopulation, but it can be difficult to quantify a threshold above which such a population is likely to persist. We performed a Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis (BMPVA) using a dynamic occupancy model to quantify the characteristics of two wood frog (Lithobates sylvatica) metapopulations resulting in sustainable populations, and we demonstrate how the results could be used to define meaningful objectives that serve as the basis of adaptive management. We explored scenarios involving metapopulations with different numbers of patches (pools) using estimates of breeding occurrence and successful metamorphosis from two study areas to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction and calculate the proportion of vernal pools producing metamorphs. Our results suggest that ≥50 pools are required to ensure long-term persistence with approximately 16% of pools producing metamorphs in stable metapopulations. We demonstrate one way to incorporate the BMPVA results into a utility function that balances the trade-offs between ecological and financial objectives, which can be used in an adaptive management framework to make optimal, transparent decisions. Our approach provides a framework for using a standard method (i.e., PVA) and available information to inform a formal decision process to determine optimal and timely management policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable data necessary to parameterize population models are seldom available for imperiled species. As an alternative, data from populations of the same species or from ecologically similar species have been used to construct models. In this study, we evaluated the use of demographic data collected at one California sea lion colony (Los Islotes) to predict the population dynamics of the same species from two other colonies (San Jorge and Granito) in the Gulf of California, Mexico, for which demographic data are lacking. To do so, we developed a stochastic demographic age-structured matrix model and conducted a population viability analysis for each colony. For the Los Islotes colony we used site-specific pup, juvenile, and adult survival probabilities, as well as birth rates for older females. For the other colonies, we used site-specific pup and juvenile survival probabilities, but used surrogate data from Los Islotes for adult survival probabilities and birth rates. We assessed these models by comparing simulated retrospective population trajectories to observed population trends based on count data. The projected population trajectories approximated the observed trends when surrogate data were used for one colony but failed to match for a second colony. Our results indicate that species-specific and even region-specific surrogate data may lead to erroneous conservation decisions. These results highlight the importance of using population-specific demographic data in assessing extinction risk. When vital rates are not available and immediate management actions must be taken, in particular for imperiled species, we recommend the use of surrogate data only when the populations appear to have similar population trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating and projecting population trends using population viability analysis (PVA) are central to identifying species at risk of extinction and for informing conservation management strategies. Models for PVA generally fall within two categories, scalar (count-based) or matrix (demographic). Model structure, process error, measurement error, and time series length all have known impacts in population risk assessments, but their combined impact has not been thoroughly investigated. We tested the ability of scalar and matrix PVA models to predict percent decline over a ten-year interval, selected to coincide with the IUCN Red List criterion A.3, using data simulated for a hypothetical, short-lived organism with a simple life-history and for a threatened snail, Tasmaphena lamproides. PVA performance was assessed across different time series lengths, population growth rates, and levels of process and measurement error. We found that the magnitude of effects of measurement error, process error, and time series length, and interactions between these, depended on context. We found that high process and measurement error reduced the reliability of both models in predicted percent decline. Both sources of error contributed strongly to biased predictions, with process error tending to contribute to the spread of predictions more than measurement error. Increasing time series length improved precision and reduced bias of predicted population trends, but gains substantially diminished for time series lengths greater than 10–15 years. The simple parameterization scheme we employed contributed strongly to bias in matrix model predictions when both process and measurement error were high, causing scalar models to exhibit similar or greater precision and lower bias than matrix models. Our study provides evidence that, for short-lived species with structured but simple life histories, short time series and simple models can be sufficient for reasonably reliable conservation decision-making, and may be preferable for population projections when unbiased estimates of vital rates cannot be obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dominant criterion to determine when an introduced species is established relies on the maintenance of a self-sustaining population in the area of introduction, i.e. on the viability of the population from a demographic perspective. There is however a paucity of demographic studies on introduced species, and establishment success is thus generally determined by expert opinion without undertaking population viability analyses (PVAs). By means of an intensive five year capture-recapture monitoring program (involving >12,000 marked individuals) we studied the demography of five introduced passerine bird species in southern Spain which are established and have undergone a fast expansion over the last decades. We obtained useful estimates of demographic parameters (survival and reproduction) for one colonial species (Ploceus melanocephalus), confirming the long-term viability of its local population through PVAs. However, extremely low recapture rates prevented the estimation of survival parameters and population growth rates for widely distributed species with low local densities (Estrilda troglodytes and Amandava amandava) but also for highly abundant yet non-colonial species (Estrilda astrild and Euplectes afer). Therefore, determining the establishment success of introduced passerine species by demographic criteria alone may often be troublesome even when devoting much effort to field-work. Alternative quantitative methodologies such as the analysis of spatio-temporal species distributions complemented with expert opinion deserve thus their role in the assessment of establishment success of introduced species when estimates of demographic parameters are difficult to obtain, as is generally the case for non-colonial, highly mobile passerines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population extinction due to the accumulation of deleterious mutations has only been considered to occur at small population sizes, large sexual populations being expected to efficiently purge these mutations. However, little is known about how the mutation load generated by segregating mutations affects population size and, eventually, population extinction. We propose a simple analytical model that takes into account both the demographic and genetic evolution of populations, linking population size, density dependence, the mutation load, and self-fertilisation. Analytical predictions were found to be relatively good predictors of population size and probability of population viability when verified using an explicit individual based stochastic model. We show that initially large populations do not always reach mutation-selection balance and can go extinct due to the accumulation of segregating deleterious mutations. Population survival depends not only on the relative fitness and demographic stochasticity, but also on the interaction between the two. When deleterious mutations are recessive, self-fertilisation affects viability non-monotonically and genomic cold-spots could favour the viability of outcrossing populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monitoring species abundance and distribution is a prerequisite when assessing species status and population viability, a difficult task to achieve for large herbivores at ecologically meaningful scales. Co-occurrence patterns can be used to infer mechanisms of community organization (such as biotic interactions), although it has been traditionally applied to binary presence/absence data. Here, we combine density surface and null models of abundance data as a novel approach to analyze the spatial and seasonal dynamics of abundance and distribution of guanacos (Lama guanicoe) and domestic herbivores in northern Patagonia, in order to visually and analytically compare the dispersion and co-occurrence pattern of ungulates. We found a marked seasonal pattern in abundance and spatial distribution of L. guanicoe. The guanaco population reached its maximum annual size and spatial dispersion in spring-summer, decreasing up to 6.5 times in size and occupying few sites of the study area in fall-winter. These results are evidence of the seasonal migration process of guanaco populations, an increasingly rare event for terrestrial mammals worldwide. The maximum number of guanacos estimated for spring (25951) is higher than the total population size (10000) 20 years ago, probably due to both counting methodology and population growth. Livestock were mostly distributed near human settlements, as expected by the sedentary management practiced by local people. Herbivore distribution was non-random; i.e., guanaco and livestock abundances co-varied negatively in all seasons, more than expected by chance. Segregation degree of guanaco and small-livestock (goats and sheep) was comparatively stronger than that of guanaco and large-livestock, suggesting a competition mechanism between ecologically similar herbivores, although various environmental factors could also contribute to habitat segregation. The new and compelling combination of methods used here is highly useful for researchers who conduct counts of animals to simultaneously estimate population sizes, distributions, assess temporal trends and characterize multi-species spatial interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of climatic conditions in shaping the geographic distribution of amphibian species is mainly associated to their high sensitivity to environmental conditions. How they cope with climate gradients through behavioral adaptations throughout their distribution is an important issue due to the ecological and evolutionary implications for population viability. Given their low dispersal abilities, the response to seasonal climate changes may not be migration, but behavioral and physiological adaptations. Here we tested whether shifts in climatic seasonality can predict the temporal variation of surface activity of the fossorial Lowland Burrowing Treefrog (Smilisca fodiens) across its geographical distribution. We employed Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) to perform a monthly analysis of spatial variation of suitable climatic conditions (defined by the July conditions, the month of greatest activity), and then evaluated the geographical correspondence of monthly projections with the occurrence data per month. We found that the species activity, based on the species' occurrence data, corresponds with the latitudinal variation of suitable climatic conditions. Due to the behavioral response of this fossorial frog to seasonal climate variation, we suggest that precipitation and temperature have played a major role in the definition of geographical and temporal distribution patterns, as well as in shaping behavioral adaptations to local climatic conditions. This highlights the influence of macroclimate on shaping activity patterns and the important role of fossorials habits to meet the environmental requirements necessary for survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of climatic conditions in shaping the geographic distribution of amphibian species is mainly associated to their high sensitivity to environmental conditions. How they cope with climate gradients through behavioral adaptations throughout their distribution is an important issue due to the ecological and evolutionary implications for population viability. Given their low dispersal abilities, the response to seasonal climate changes may not be migration, but behavioral and physiological adaptations. Here we tested whether shifts in climatic seasonality can predict the temporal variation of surface activity of the fossorial Lowland Burrowing Treefrog (Smilisca fodiens) across its geographical distribution. We employed Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) to perform a monthly analysis of spatial variation of suitable climatic conditions (defined by the July conditions, the month of greatest activity), and then evaluated the geographical correspondence of monthly projections with the occurrence data per month. We found that the species activity, based on the species' occurrence data, corresponds with the latitudinal variation of suitable climatic conditions. Due to the behavioral response of this fossorial frog to seasonal climate variation, we suggest that precipitation and temperature have played a major role in the definition of geographical and temporal distribution patterns, as well as in shaping behavioral adaptations to local climatic conditions. This highlights the influence of macroclimate on shaping activity patterns and the important role of fossorials habits to meet the environmental requirements necessary for survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of seed dispersal of many animal-dispersed plants is frequently mediated by a small set of biotic agents. However, the contribution that each of these dispersers makes to the overall recruitment may differ largely, with important ecological and management implications for the population viability and dynamics of the species implied in these interactions. In this paper, we compared the relative contribution of two local guilds of scatter-hoarding animals with contrasting metabolic requirements and foraging behaviours (rodents and dung beetles) to the overall recruitment of two Quercus species co-occurring in the forests of southern Spain. For this purpose, we considered not only the quantity of dispersed seeds but also the quality of the seed dispersal process. The suitability for recruitment of the microhabitats where the seeds were deposited was evaluated in a multi-stage demographic approach. The highest rates of seed handling and predation occurred in those microhabitats located under shrubs, mostly due to the foraging activity of rodents. However, the probability of a seed being successfully cached was higher in microhabitats located beneath a tree canopy as a result of the feeding behaviour of beetles. Rodents and beetles showed remarkable differences in their effectiveness as local acorn dispersers. Quantitatively, rodents were much more important than beetles because they dispersed the vast majority of acorns. However, they were qualitatively less effective because they consumed a high proportion of them (over 95%), and seeds were mostly dispersed under shrubs, a less suitable microhabitat for short-term recruitment of the two oak species. Our findings demonstrate that certain species of dung beetles (such as Thorectes lusitanicus), despite being quantitatively less important than rodents, can act as effective local seed dispersers of Mediterranean oak species. Changes in the abundance of beetle populations could thus have profound implications for oak recruitment and community dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ideal conservation planning approach would enable decision-makers to use population viability analysis to assess the effects of management strategies and threats on all species at the landscape level. However, the lack of high-quality data derived from long-term studies, and uncertainty in model parameters and/or structure, often limit the use of population models to only a few species of conservation concern. We used spatially explicit metapopulation models in conjunction with multi-criteria decision analysis to assess how species-specific threats and management interventions would affect the persistence of African wild dog, black rhino, cheetah, elephant, leopard and lion, under six reserve scenarios, thereby providing the basis for deciding on a best course of conservation action in the South African province of KwaZulu-Natal, which forms the central component of the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany biodiversity hotspot. Overall, the results suggest that current strategies of managing populations within individual, small, fenced reserves are unlikely to enhance metapopulation persistence should catastrophic events affect populations in the future. Creating larger and better-connected protected areas would ensure that threats can be better mitigated in the future for both African wild dog and leopard, which can disperse naturally, and black rhino, cheetah, elephant, and lion, which are constrained by electric fences but can be managed using translocation. The importance of both size and connectivity should inform endangered megafauna conservation and management, especially in the context of restoration efforts in increasingly human-dominated landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hawai'I's coastal plain wetlands are inhabited by five endangered endemic waterbird species. These include the Hawaiian Coot ('alae ke'oke'o), Hawaiian Duck (koloa maoli), Hawaiian Stilt (ae'o), Hawaiian Gallinule (Moorhen) ('alae 'ula), and Hawaiian Goose (nēnē). All five species are categorized as being “conservation reliant.” The current strategy to recover these endangered birds includes land protection and active management of wetlands. To assess the effectiveness of the current management paradigm, we compared species population trends across the state to those on six actively managed wetland national wildlife refuges (Refuges) thought to be critical for the survival of these endangered species. To perform the evaluation we relied on systematic semiannual population counts that have been conducted across most wetlands in the state and monthly population counts that have occurred on Refuges during the same time period. We found that statewide and Refuge populations of the Hawaiian Coot, Stilt and Gallinule have rebounded from historic lows and over the last 20 years have slowly increased or remained stable. We also documented that Refuges are important to each species year-round and that a disproportionately larger percentage of the population for each species is found on them. Understanding of why Refuges successfully house a disproportionate percentage of these “conservation reliant” species can inform current and future conservation efforts as well as ensure long-term population viability for these species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscape connectivity is a key factor determining the viability of populations in fragmented landscapes. Predicting 'functional connectivity', namely whether a patch or a landscape functions as connected from the perspective of a focal species, poses various challenges. First, empirical data on the movement behaviour of species is often scarce. Second, animallandscape interactions are bound to yield complex patterns. Lastly, functional connectivity involves various components that are rarely assessed separately. We introduce the spatially explicit, individual-based model FunCon as means to distinguish between components of functional connectivity and to assess how each of them affects the sensitivity of species and communities to landscape structures. We then present the results of exploratory simulations over six landscapes of different fragmentation levels and across a range of hypothetical bird species that differ in their response to habitat edges. i) Our results demonstrate that estimations of functional connectivity depend not only on the response of species to edges (avoidance versus penetration into the matrix), the movement mode investigated (home range movements versus dispersal), and the way in which the matrix is being crossed (random walk versus gap crossing), but also on the choice of connectivity measure (in this case, the model output examined). ii) We further show a strong effect of the mortality scenario applied, indicating that movement decisions that do not fully match the mortality risks are likely to reduce connectivity and enhance sensitivity to fragmentation. iii) Despite these complexities, some consistent patterns emerged. For instance, the ranking order of landscapes in terms of functional connectivity was mostly consistent across the entire range of hypothetical species, indicating that simple landscape indices can potentially serve as valuable surrogates for functional connectivity. Yet such simplifications must be carefully evaluated in terms of the components of functional connectivity they actually predict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The HUGO Pan-Asian SNP consortium conducted the largest survey to date of human genetic diversity among Asians by sampling 1,719 unrelated individuals among 71 populations from China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. We have constructed a database (PanSNPdb), which contains these data and various new analyses of them. PanSNPdb is a research resource in the analysis of the population structure of Asian peoples, including linkage disequilibrium patterns, haplotype distributions, and copy number variations. Furthermore, PanSNPdb provides an interactive comparison with other SNP and CNV databases, including HapMap3, JSNP, dbSNP and DGV and thus provides a comprehensive resource of human genetic diversity. The information is accessible via a widely accepted graphical interface used in many genetic variation databases. Unrestricted access to PanSNPdb and any associated files is available at: http://www4a.biotec.or.th/PASNP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demographic parameters such as birth and death rates determine the persistence of populations. Understanding the mechanisms that influence these rates is essential to developing effective management strategies. Alloparental behavior, or the care of non-filial young, has been documented in many species and has been shown to influence offspring survival. However, the role of alloparental behavior in maintaining population viability has not been previously studied. Here, we provide the first evidence for adoption in California sea lions and show that adoption potentially works to maintain a high survival rate of young and may ultimately contribute to population persistence. Alloparental behavior should have a positive effect on the population growth rate when the sum of the effects on fitness for the alloparent and beneficiary is positive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In polygynous mating systems, males often increase their fecundity via aggressive defense of mates and/or resources necessary for successful mating. Here we show that both male and female reproductive behavior during the breeding season (June-August) affect female fecundity, a vital rate that is an important determinant of population growth rate and viability. By using 4 years of data on behavior and demography of California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), we found that male behavior and spatial dynamics-aggression and territory size-are significantly related to female fecundity. Higher rates of male aggression and larger territory sizes were associated with lower estimates of female fecundity within the same year. Female aggression was significantly and positively related to fecundity both within the same year as the behavior was measured and in the following year. These results indicate that while male aggression and defense of territories may increase male fecundity, such interactions may cause a reduction in the overall population growth rate by lowering female fecundity. Females may attempt to offset male-related reductions in female fecundity by increasing their own aggression- perhaps to defend pups from incidental injury or mortality. Thus in polygynous mating systems, male aggression may increase male fitness at the cost of female fitness and overall population viability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In recent decades, large pelagic and coastal shark populations have declined dramatically with increased fishing; however, the status of sharks in other systems such as coral reefs remains largely unassessed despite a long history of exploitation. Here we explore the contemporary distribution and sighting frequency of sharks on reefs in the greater- Caribbean and assess the possible role of human pressures on observed patterns. Methodology/Principal Findings: We analyzed 76,340 underwater surveys carried out by trained volunteer divers between 1993 and 2008. Surveys were grouped within one km2 cells, which allowed us to determine the contemporary geographical distribution and sighting frequency of sharks. Sighting frequency was calculated as the ratio of surveys with sharks to the total number of surveys in each cell. We compared sighting frequency to the number of people in the cell vicinity and used population viability analyses to assess the effects of exploitation on population trends. Sharks, with the exception of nurse sharks occurred mainly in areas with very low human population or strong fishing regulations and marine conservation. Population viability analysis suggests that exploitation alone could explain the large-scale absence; however, this pattern is likely to be exacerbated by additional anthropogenic stressors, such as pollution and habitat degradation, that also correlate with human population. Conclusions/Significance: Human pressures in coastal zones have lead to the broad-scale absence of sharks on reefs in the greater-Caribbean. Preventing further loss of sharks requires urgent management measures to curb fishing mortality and to mitigate other anthropogenic stressors to protect sites where sharks still exist. The fact that sharks still occur in some densely populated areas where strong fishing regulations are in place indicates the possibility of success and encourages the implementation of conservation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Schistosomiasis, caused by infection with the blood fluke Schistosoma, is responsible for greater than 200,000 human deaths per annum. Objective high-throughput screens for detecting novel anti-schistosomal targets will drive 'genome to drug' lead translational science at an unprecedented rate. Current methods for detecting schistosome viability rely on qualitative microscopic criteria, which require an understanding of parasite morphology, and most importantly, must be subjectively interpreted. These limitations, in the current state of the art, have significantly impeded progress into whole schistosome screening for next generation chemotherapies. Methodology/Principal Findings: We present here a microtiter plate-based method for reproducibly detecting schistosomula viability that takes advantage of the differential uptake of fluorophores (propidium iodide and fluorescein diacetate) by living organisms. We validate this high-throughput system in detecting schistosomula viability using auranofin (a known inhibitor of thioredoxin glutathione reductase), praziquantel and a range of small compounds with previouslydescribed (gambogic acid, sodium salinomycin, ethinyl estradiol, fluoxetidine hydrochloride, miconazole nitrate, chlorpromazine hydrochloride, amphotericin b, niclosamide) or suggested (bepridil, ciclopirox, rescinnamine, flucytosine, vinblastine and carbidopa) anti-schistosomal activities. This developed method is sensitive (200 schistosomula/well can be assayed), relevant to industrial (384-well microtiter plate compatibility) and academic (96-well microtiter plate compatibility) settings, translatable to functional genomics screens and drug assays, does not require a priori knowledge of schistosome biology and is quantitative. Conclusions/Significance: The wide-scale application of this fluorescence-based bioassay will greatly accelerate the objective identification of novel therapeutic lead targets/compounds to combat schistosomiasis. Adapting this bioassay for use with other parasitic worm species further offers an opportunity for great strides to be made against additional neglected tropical diseases of biomedical and veterinary importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Human-predator conflicts are directly or indirectly threatening many species with extinction. Thus, biologists are urged to find simple solutions to complex situations while avoiding unforeseen conservation outcomes. The provision of supplementary food at artificial feeding sites (AFS) is frequently used in the conservation of scavenger bird populations currently suffering from indirect poisoning, although no scientific studies on its effectiveness have been conducted. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used a long-term data set of 95 individually marked birds from the largest European core of the endangered bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) to test the long-term effects of specific AFS for bearded vultures on their survival rates (by CMR models) and population dynamics (by Monte Carlo simulations) in an area where fatalities derived from illegal poisoning and the use of other toxics like veterinary drugs have increased over the last several years. Our data support the positive relationship between the use of AFS and survival. However, contrary to theoretical predictions (e.g. high and more stable adult survival among long-lived species), the use of AFS increased only survival of pre-adults. Moreover, AFS buffered the effects of illegal poisoning on this age-class, while adult survival decreased over years. Our simulations predicted a maximum value of extinction probability over a time horizon of 50 years. Population projections run with survival rates expected in scenarios without poisoning predicted the situation of least conservation concern, while including only AFS can maintain a large floater surplus that may delay population decline but fails to reduce poisoning risk among adults. Conclusions/Significance: Although AFS are not effective to save bearded vultures from an expected population decline, they delay population extinction and can be a useful tool for prolonging population viability while combating illegal and indirect poisoning. The eradication of different sources of poisoning is of top priority to ensure the long-term viability of this and many other species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In gonochoristic vertebrates, sex determination mechanisms can be classified as genotypic (GSD) or temperature-dependent (TSD). Some cases of TSD in fish have been questioned, but the prevalent view is that TSD is very common in this group of animals, with three different response patterns to temperature. Methodology/Principal Findings: We analyzed field and laboratory data for the 59 fish species where TSD has been explicitly or implicitly claimed so far. For each species, we compiled data on the presence or absence of sex chromosomes and determined if the sex ratio response was obtained within temperatures that the species experiences in the wild. If so, we studied whether this response was statistically significant. We found evidence that many cases of observed sex ratio shifts in response to temperature reveal thermal alterations of an otherwise predominately GSD mechanism rather than the presence of TSD. We also show that in those fish species that actually have TSD, sex ratio response to increasing temperatures invariably results in highly male-biased sex ratios, and that even small changes of just 1-2°C can significantly alter the sex ratio from 1:1 (males:females) up to 3:1 in both freshwater and marine species. Conclusions/Significance: We demonstrate that TSD in fish is far less widespread than currently believed, suggesting that TSD is clearly the exception in fish sex determination. Further, species with TSD exhibit only one general sex ratio response pattern to temperature. However, the viability of some fish populations with TSD can be compromised through alterations in their sex ratios as a response to temperature fluctuations of the magnitude predicted by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding population extinctions is a chief goal of ecological theory. While stochastic theories of population growth are commonly used to forecast extinction, models used for prediction have not been adequately tested with experimental data. In a previously published experiment, variation in available food was experimentally manipulated in 281 laboratory populations of Daphnia magna to test hypothesized effects of environmental variation on population persistence. Here, half of those data were used to select and fit a stochastic model of population growth to predict extinctions of populations in the other half. When density-dependent demographic stochasticity was detected and incorporated in simple stochastic models, rates of population extinction were accurately predicted or only slightly biased. However, when density-dependent demographic stochasticity was not accounted for, as is usual when forecasting extinction of threatened and endangered species, predicted extinction rates were severely biased. Thus, an experimental demonstration shows that reliable estimates of extinction risk may be obtained for populations in variable environments if high-quality data are available for model selection and if density-dependent demographic stochasticity is accounted for. These results suggest that further consideration of density-dependent demographic stochasticity is required if predicted extinction rates are to be relied upon for conservation planning. Manipulating the environment of Daphnia reveals that extinction risk can be reliably predicted only if density-dependent demographic stochasticity is included and that traditional models ignoring this underestimate the risk of extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future. As human populations increase, the importance of intrinsic biological factors in determining which carnivores become extinct will also rise - an interaction that makes some species more threatened than previously thought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]