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Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic will test the capacity of health systems worldwide and especially so in low- and middle-income countries. The objective of this study was to assess the surge capacity of the Kenyan of the Kenyan health system in terms of general hospital and ICU beds in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We assumed that 2% of the Kenyan population get symptomatic infection by SARS-Cov-2 based on modelled estimates for Kenya and determined the health system surge capacity for COVID-19 under three transmission curve scenarios, 6, 12, and 18 months. We estimated four measures of hospital surge capacity namely: 1) hospital bed surge capacity 2) ICU bed surge capacity 3) Hospital bed tipping point, and 5) ICU bed tipping point. We computed this nationally and for all the 47 county governments. Results: The capacity of Kenyan hospitals to absorb increases in caseload due to COVID-19 is constrained by the availability of oxygen, with only 58% of hospital beds in hospitals with oxygen supply. There is substantial variation in hospital bed surge capacity across counties. For example, under the 6 months transmission scenario, the percentage of available general hospital beds that would be taken up by COVID-19 cases varied from 12% Tharaka Nithi county, to 145% in Trans Nzoia county. Kenya faces substantial gaps in ICU beds and ventilator capacity. Only 22 out of the 47 counties have at least 1 ICU unit. Kenya will need an additional 1,511 ICU beds and 1,609 ventilators (6 months transmission curve) to 374 ICU beds and 472 ventilators (18 months transmission curve) to absorb caseloads due to COVID-19. Conclusion: Significant gaps exist in Kenya's capacity for hospitals to accommodate a potential surge in caseload due to COVID-19. Alongside efforts to slow and supress the transmission of the infection, the Kenyan government will need to implement adaptive measures and additional investments to expand the hospital surge capacity for COVID-19. Additional investments will however need to be strategically prioritized to focus on strengthening essential services first, such as oxygen availability before higher cost investments such as ICU beds and ventilators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, 2.4 million newborns die in the first month of life, with neonatal mortality rates (NMR) per 1,000 livebirths being highest in sub-Saharan Africa. Improving access to inpatient newborn care is necessary for reduction of neonatal deaths in the region. We explore the relationship between distance to inpatient hospital newborn care and neonatal mortality in Kenya. Data on service availability from numerous sources were used to map hospitals that care for newborns with very low birth weight (VLBW). Estimates of livebirths needing VLBW services were mapped from population census data at 100 m spatial resolution using a random forest algorithm and adjustments using a systematic review of livebirths needing these services. A cost distance algorithm that adjusted for proximity to roads, road speeds, land use and protected areas was used to define geographic access to hospitals offering VLBW services. County-level access metrics were then regressed against estimates of NMR to assess the contribution of geographic access to VLBW services on newborn deaths while controlling for wealth, maternal education and health workforce. 228 VLBW hospitals were mapped, with 29,729 births predicted as requiring VLBW services in 2019. Approximately 80.3% of these births were within 2 hours of the nearest VLBW hospital. Geographic access to these hospitals, ranged from less than 30% in Wajir and Turkana to as high as 80% in six counties. Regression analysis showed that a one percent increase in population within 2 hours of a VLBW hospital was associated with a reduction of NMR by 0.24. Despite access in the country being above the 80% threshold, 17/47 counties do not achieve this benchmark. To reduce inequities in NMR in Kenya, policies to improve care must reduce geographic barriers to access and progressively improve facilities' capacity to provide quality care for VLBW newborns., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2022 Ouma et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)