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Antibodies and humoral memory are key components of the adaptive immune system. We consider and computationally model mechanisms by which humoral memory present at baseline might increase rather than decrease infection load; we refer to this effect as EI-HM (enhancement of infection by humoral memory). We first consider antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) in which antibody enhances the growth of the pathogen, typically a virus, and typically at intermediate 'Goldilocks' levels of antibody. Our ADE model reproduces ADE in vitro and enhancement of infection in vivo from passive antibody transfer. But notably the simplest implementation of our ADE model never results in EI-HM. Adding complexity, by making the cross-reactive antibody much less neutralizing than the de novo generated antibody or by including a sufficiently strong non-antibody immune response, allows for ADE-mediated EI-HM. We next consider the possibility that cross-reactive memory causes EI-HM by crowding out a possibly superior de novo immune response. We show that, even without ADE, EI-HM can occur when the cross-reactive response is both less potent and 'directly' (i.e. independently of infection load) suppressive with regard to the de novo response. In this case adding a non-antibody immune response to our computational model greatly reduces or completely eliminates EI-HM, which suggests that 'crowding out' is unlikely to cause substantial EI-HM. Hence, our results provide examples in which simple models give qualitatively opposite results compared to models with plausible complexity. Our results may be helpful in interpreting and reconciling disparate experimental findings, especially from dengue, and for vaccination. Author summary: Humoral memory, generated by infection with a pathogen, can protect against subsequent infection by the same and related pathogens. We consider situations in which humoral memory is counterproductive and instead enhances infection by related pathogens. Numerous experiments have shown that the addition of binding antibody makes certain viruses more, rather than less, infectious; typically high levels of antibody are still protective, meaning that infectivity is maximized at intermediate 'Goldilocks' levels of antibody. Additionally, we consider the situation in which cross-reactive humoral memory dominates relative to the de novo response. Memory dominance has been documented for influenza infections, but whether it is harmful or not is unclear. We show computationally that both ADE and a certain type of competition between the cross-reactive and de novo responses translate into enhancement of infection in certain circumstances but not in others. We discuss the implications of our research for dengue infection, a common mosquito-transmitted viral infection, and vaccination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how immunological memory lasts a lifetime requires quantifying changes in the number of memory cells as well as how their division and death rates change over time. We address these questions by using a statistically powerful mixed-effects differential equations framework to analyze data from two human studies that follow CD8 T cell responses to the yellow fever vaccine (YFV-17D). Models were first fit to the frequency of YFV-specific memory CD8 T cells and deuterium enrichment in those cells 42 days to 1 year post-vaccination. A different dataset, on the loss of YFV-specific CD8 T cells over three decades, was used to assess out of sample predictions of our models. The commonly used exponential and bi-exponential decline models performed relatively poorly. Models with the cell loss following a power law (exactly or approximately) were most predictive. Notably, using only the first year of data, these models accurately predicted T cell frequencies up to 30 years post-vaccination. Our analyses suggest that division rates of these cells drop and plateau at a low level (0.1% per day, ∼ double the estimated values for naive T cells) within one year following vaccination, whereas death rates continue to decline for much longer. Our results show that power laws can be predictive for T cell memory, a finding that may be useful for vaccine evaluation and epidemiological modeling. Moreover, since power laws asymptotically decline more slowly than any exponential decline, our results help explain the longevity of immune memory phenomenologically. Author summary: Immunological memory, generated in response to infection or vaccination, may provide complete or partial protection from antigenically similar infections for the lifetime. Memory CD8 T cells are important players in protection from secondary viral infections but quantitative understanding of their dynamics in humans is limited. We analyze data from two studies where immunization with the yellow fever virus vaccine (YFV-17D) generates a mild acute infection and long-term memory. We find that: (i) the division rate of YFV-17D-specific CD8 T cells drops and stabilizes at ∼ 0.1% per day during the first year following vaccination whereas the death rate declines more gradually, and (ii) the number of these cells declines approximately in accordance with a power law (∝ time−0.75) for at least several decades following vaccination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]