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Background In highly resource-limited settings, many clinics lack same-day microbiological testing for active tuberculosis (TB). In these contexts, risk of pretreatment loss to follow-up is high, and a simple, easy-to-use clinical risk score could be useful. Methods and findings We analyzed data from adults tested for TB with Xpert MTB/RIF across 28 primary health clinics in rural South Africa (between July 2016 and January 2018). We used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to identify characteristics associated with Xpert-confirmed TB and converted coefficients into a simple score. We assessed discrimination using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration using Cox linear logistic regression, and clinical utility using decision curves. We validated the score externally in a population of adults tested for TB across 4 primary health clinics in urban Uganda (between May 2018 and December 2019). Model development was repeated de novo with the Ugandan population to compare clinical scores. The South African and Ugandan cohorts included 701 and 106 individuals who tested positive for TB, respectively, and 686 and 281 randomly selected individuals who tested negative. Compared to the Ugandan cohort, the South African cohort was older (41% versus 19% aged 45 years or older), had similar breakdown of biological sex (48% versus 50% female), and had higher HIV prevalence (45% versus 34%). The final prediction model, scored from 0 to 10, included 6 characteristics: age, sex, HIV (2 points), diabetes, number of classical TB symptoms (cough, fever, weight loss, and night sweats; 1 point each), and >14-day symptom duration. Discrimination was moderate in the derivation (c-statistic = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.81 to 0.82) and validation (c-statistic = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.69 to 0.80) populations. A patient with 10% pretest probability of TB would have a posttest probability of 4% with a score of 3/10 versus 43% with a score of 7/10. The de novo Ugandan model contained similar characteristics and performed equally well. Our study may be subject to spectrum bias as we only included a random sample of people without TB from each cohort. This score is only meant to guide management while awaiting microbiological results, not intended as a community-based triage test (i.e., to identify individuals who should receive further testing). Conclusions In this study, we observed that a simple clinical risk score reasonably distinguished individuals with and without TB among those submitting sputum for diagnosis. Subject to prospective validation, this score might be useful in settings with constrained diagnostic resources where concern for pretreatment loss to follow-up is high., Author(s): Yeonsoo Baik 1,*, Hannah M. Rickman 1, Colleen F. Hanrahan 1, Lesego Mmolawa 2, Peter J. Kitonsa 3, Tsundzukana Sewelana 2, Annet Nalutaaya 3, Emily A. Kendall 3,4, Limakatso [...]

Background The Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) assay offers rapid and accurate diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) but still suffers from imperfect sensitivity. The newer Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra cartridge has shown improved sensitivity in recent field trials, but at the expense of reduced specificity. The clinical implications of switching from the existing Xpert cartridge to the Xpert Ultra cartridge in different populations remain uncertain. Methods and findings We developed a Markov microsimulation model of hypothetical cohorts of 100,000 individuals undergoing diagnostic sputum evaluation with Xpert for suspected pulmonary TB, in each of 3 emblematic settings: an HIV clinic in South Africa, a public TB center in India, and an adult primary care setting in China. In each setting, we used existing data to project likely diagnostic results, treatment decisions, and ultimate clinical outcomes, assuming use of the standard Xpert versus Xpert Ultra cartridge. Our primary outcomes were the projected number of additional unnecessary treatments generated, the projected number of TB deaths averted, and the projected number of unnecessary treatments generated per TB death averted, if standard Xpert were switched to Xpert Ultra. We also simulated alternative approaches to interpreting positive results of the Ultra cartridge's semi-quantitative trace call. Extensive sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed to evaluate the drivers and generalizability of projected results. In the Indian TB center setting, replacing the standard Xpert cartridge with the Xpert Ultra cartridge was projected to avert 0.5 TB deaths (95% uncertainty range [UR]: 0, 1.3) and generate 18 unnecessary treatments (95% UR: 10, 29) per 1,000 individuals evaluated-resulting in a median ratio of 38 incremental unnecessary treatments added by Ultra per incremental death averted by Ultra compared to outcomes using standard Xpert (95% UR: 12, indefinite upper bound). In the South African HIV care setting-where TB mortality rates are higher and Ultra's improved sensitivity has greater absolute benefit-this ratio improved to 7 unnecessary treatments per TB death averted (95% UR: 2, 43). By contrast, in the Chinese primary care setting, this ratio was much less favorable, at 372 unnecessary treatments per TB death averted (95% UR: 75, indefinite upper bound), although the projected number of unnecessary treatments using Xpert Ultra was lower (with a possibility of no increased overtreatment) when using specificity data only from lower-burden settings. Alternative interpretations of the trace call had little effect on these ratios. Limitations include uncertainty in key parameters (including the clinical implications of false-negative results), the exclusion of transmission effects, and restriction of this analysis to adult pulmonary TB. Conclusions Switching from the standard Xpert cartridge to the Xpert Ultra cartridge for diagnosis of adult pulmonary TB may have different consequences in different clinical settings. In settings with high TB and HIV prevalence, Xpert Ultra is likely to offer considerable mortality benefit, whereas in lower-prevalence settings, Xpert Ultra will likely result in considerable overtreatment unless the possibility of higher specificity of Ultra in lower-prevalence settings in confirmed. The ideal use of the Ultra cartridge may therefore involve a more nuanced, setting-specific approach to implementation, with priority given to populations in which the anticipated prevalence of TB (and HIV) is the highest., Author(s): Emily A. Kendall 1,*, Samuel G. Schumacher 2, Claudia M. Denkinger 2, David W. Dowdy 3 Introduction Introduced in 2010, Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert)-a molecular assay for the detection of [...]

Background Novel drug regimens are needed for tuberculosis (TB) treatment. New regimens aim to improve on characteristics such as duration, efficacy, and safety profile, but no single regimen is likely to be ideal in all respects. By linking these regimen characteristics to a novel regimen's ability to reduce TB incidence and mortality, we sought to prioritize regimen characteristics from a population-level perspective. Methods and Findings We developed a dynamic transmission model of multi-strain TB epidemics in hypothetical populations reflective of the epidemiological situations in India (primary analysis), South Africa, the Philippines, and Brazil. We modeled the introduction of various novel rifampicin-susceptible (RS) or rifampicin-resistant (RR) TB regimens that differed on six characteristics, identified in consultation with a team of global experts: (1) efficacy, (2) duration, (3) ease of adherence, (4) medical contraindications, (5) barrier to resistance, and (6) baseline prevalence of resistance to the novel regimen. We compared scale-up of these regimens to a baseline reflective of continued standard of care. For our primary analysis situated in India, our model generated baseline TB incidence and mortality of 157 (95% uncertainty range [UR]: 113-187) and 16 (95% UR: 9-23) per 100,000 per year at the time of novel regimen introduction and RR TB incidence and mortality of 6 (95% UR: 4-10) and 0.6 (95% UR: 0.3-1.1) per 100,000 per year. An optimal RS TB regimen was projected to reduce 10-y TB incidence and mortality in the India-like scenario by 12% (95% UR: 6%-20%) and 11% (95% UR: 6%-20%), respectively, compared to current-care projections. An optimal RR TB regimen reduced RR TB incidence by an estimated 32% (95% UR: 18%-46%) and RR TB mortality by 30% (95% UR: 18%-44%). Efficacy was the greatest determinant of impact; compared to a novel regimen meeting all minimal targets only, increasing RS TB treatment efficacy from 94% to 99% reduced TB mortality by 6% (95% UR: 1%-13%, half the impact of a fully optimized regimen), and increasing the efficacy against RR TB from 76% to 94% lowered RR TB mortality by 13% (95% UR: 6%-23%). Reducing treatment duration or improving ease of adherence had smaller but still substantial impact: shortening RS TB treatment duration from 6 to 2 mo lowered TB mortality by 3% (95% UR: 1%-6%), and shortening RR TB treatment from 20 to 6 mo reduced RR TB mortality by 8% (95% UR: 4%-13%), while reducing nonadherence to the corresponding regimens by 50% reduced TB and RR TB mortality by 2% (95% UR: 1%-4%) and 6% (95% UR: 3%-10%), respectively. Limitations include sparse data on key model parameters and necessary simplifications to model structure and outcomes. Conclusions In designing clinical trials of novel TB regimens, investigators should consider that even small changes in treatment efficacy may have considerable impact on TB-related incidence and mortality. Other regimen improvements may still have important benefits for resource allocation and outcomes such as patient quality of life., Author(s): Emily A. Kendall 1,*, Sourya Shrestha 2, Ted Cohen 3, Eric Nuermberger 1, Kelly E. Dooley 1,4, Lice Gonzalez-Angulo 5, Gavin J. Churchyard 6, Payam Nahid 7, Michael L. [...]

Background: International and internal migration are recognized risk factors for tuberculosis (TB). Geographic mobility, including travel for work, education, or personal reasons, may also play a role in TB transmission, but this relationship is poorly defined. We aimed to define geographic mobility among participants in facility- and community-based TB case finding in Kampala, Uganda, and to assess associations between mobility, access to care, and TB disease. Methods: We included consecutive individuals age ≥15 years diagnosed with TB disease through either routine health facility practices or community-based case finding (consisting of door-to-door testing, venue-based screening, and contact investigation). Each case was matched with one (for community-based enrollment) or two (health facility enrollment) TB-negative controls. We conducted a latent class analysis (LCA) of eight self-reported characteristics to identify and define mobility; we selected the best-fit model using Bayesian Information Criterion. We assessed associations between mobility and TB case status using multivariable conditional logistic regression. Results: We enrolled 267 cases and 432 controls. Cases were more likely than controls to have been born in Kampala (p<0.001); there was no difference between cases and controls for remaining mobility characteristics. We selected a two-class LCA model; the "mobile" class was perfectly correlated with a single variable: travel (>3 km) from residence ≥2 times per month. Mobility was associated with a 28% reduction in odds of being a TB case (adjusted matched odds ratio 0.72 [95% confidence interval 0.49, 1.06]). Conclusion: Frequency of out-of-neighborhood travel is an easily measured variable that correlates closely with predicted mobility class membership. Mobility was associated with decreased risk of TB disease; this may be in part due to the higher socioeconomic status of mobile individuals in this population. However, more research is needed to improve assessment of mobility and understand how mobility affects disease risk and transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: When evaluating symptomatic patients for tuberculosis (TB) without access to same-day diagnostic test results, clinicians often make empiric decisions about starting treatment. The number of TB symptoms and/or underweight status could help identify patients at highest risk for a positive result. We sought to evaluate the usefulness of BMI assessment and a count of characteristic TB symptoms for identifying patients at highest risk for TB. Methods: We enrolled adult patients receiving pulmonary TB diagnoses and a representative sample with negative TB evaluations at four outpatient health facilities in Kampala, Uganda. We asked patients about symptoms of chronic cough, night sweats, chest pain, fever, hemoptysis, or weight loss; measured height and weight; and collected sputum for mycobacterial culture. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy (for culture-positive TB) of two simple scoring systems: (a) number of TB symptoms, and (b) number of TB symptoms plus one or more additional points for underweight status (body mass index [BMI] ≤ 18.5 kg/m2). Results: We included 121 patients with culture-positive TB and 370 patients with negative culture results (44 of whom had been recommended for TB treatment by evaluating clinicians). Of the six symptoms assessed, the median number of symptoms that patients reported was two (interquartile range [IQR]: 1, 3). The median BMI was 20.9 kg/m2 (IQR: 18.6, 24.0), and 118 (24%) patients were underweight. Counting the number of symptoms provided an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (c-statistic) of 0.77 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.72, 0.81) for identifying culture-positive TB; adding two points for underweight status increased the c-statistic to 0.81 (95%CI: 0.76, 0.85). A cutoff of ≥3 symptoms had sensitivity and specificity of 65% and 74%, whereas a score of ≥4 on the combined score (≥2 symptoms if underweight, ≥4 symptoms if not underweight) gave higher sensitivity and specificity of 69% and 81% respectively. A sensitivity analysis defining TB by Xpert MTB/RIF status produced similar results. Conclusion: A count of patients' TB symptoms may be useful in clinical decision-making about TB diagnosis. Consideration of underweight status adds additional diagnostic value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Clinical tuberculosis diagnosis and empiric treatment have traditionally been common among patients with negative bacteriologic test results. Increasing availability of rapid molecular diagnostic tests, including Xpert MTB/RIF and the new Xpert Ultra cartridge, may alter the role of empiric treatment. Methods: We prospectively enrolled outpatients age > = 15 who were evaluated for pulmonary tuberculosis at three health facilities in Kampala, Uganda. Using sputum mycobacterial culture, interviews, and clinical record abstraction, we estimated the accuracy of clinical diagnosis relative to Xpert and sputum culture and assessed the contribution of clinical diagnosis to case detection. Results: Over a period of 9 months, 99 patients were diagnosed with pulmonary tuberculosis and subsequently completed sputum culture; they were matched to 196 patients receiving negative tuberculosis evaluations in the same facilities. Xpert was included in the evaluation of 291 (99%) patients. Compared to culture, Xpert had a sensitivity of 92% (95% confidence interval 83–97%) and specificity of 95% (92–98%). Twenty patients with negative Xpert were clinically diagnosed with tuberculosis and subsequently had their culture status determined; two (10%) were culture-positive. Considering all treated patients regardless of Xpert and culture data completeness, and considering treatment initiations before a positive Xpert (N = 4) to be empiric, 26/101 (26%) tuberculosis treatment courses were started empirically. Compared to sputum smear- or Xpert-positive patients with positive cultures, empirically-treated, Xpert-negative patients with negative cultures had higher prevalence of HIV (67% versus 37%), shorter duration of cough (median 4 versus 8 weeks), and lower inflammatory markers (median CRP 7 versus 101 mg/L). Conclusion: Judged against sputum culture in a routine care setting of high HIV prevalence, the accuracy of Xpert was high. Clinical judgment identified a small number of additional culture-positive cases, but with poor specificity. Although clinicians should continue to prescribe tuberculosis treatment for Xpert-negative patients whose clinical presentations strongly suggest pulmonary tuberculosis, they should also carefully consider alternative diagnoses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2013, approximately 480,000 people developed active multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), while only 97,000 started MDR-TB treatment. We sought to estimate the impact of improving access to MDR-TB diagnosis and treatment, under multiple diagnostic algorithm and treatment regimen scenarios, on ten-year projections of MDR-TB incidence and mortality. Methods: We constructed a dynamic transmission model of an MDR-TB epidemic in an illustrative East/Southeast Asian setting. Using approximate Bayesian computation, we investigated a wide array of potential epidemic trajectories consistent with current notification data and known TB epidemiology. Results: Despite an overall projected decline in TB incidence, data-consistent simulations suggested that MDR-TB incidence is likely to rise between 2015 and 2025 under continued 2013 treatment practices, although with considerable uncertainty (median 17% increase, 95% Uncertainty Range [UR] -38% to +137%). But if, by 2017, all identified active TB patients with previously-treated TB could be tested for drug susceptibility, and 85% of those with MDR-TB could initiate MDR-appropriate treatment, then MDR-TB incidence in 2025 could be reduced by 26% (95% UR 4–52%) relative to projections under continued current practice. Also expanding this drug-susceptibility testing and appropriate MDR-TB treatment to treatment-naïve as well as previously-treated TB cases, by 2020, could reduce MDR-TB incidence in 2025 by 29% (95% UR 6–55%) compared to continued current practice. If this diagnosis and treatment of all MDR-TB in known active TB cases by 2020 could be implemented via a novel second-line regimen with similar effectiveness and tolerability as current first-line therapy, a 54% (95% UR 20–74%) reduction in MDR-TB incidence compared to current-practice projections could be achieved by 2025. Conclusions: Expansion of diagnosis and treatment of MDR-TB, even using current sub-optimal second-line regimens, is expected to significantly decrease MDR-TB incidence at the population level. Focusing MDR diagnostic efforts on previously-treated cases is an efficient first-step approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Default from multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) treatment remains a major barrier to cure and epidemic control. We sought to identify patient risk factors for default from MDR-TB treatment and high-risk time periods for default in relation to hospitalization and transition to outpatient care. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 225 patients who initiated MDR-TB treatment between 2007 through 2010 at a rural TB hospital in the Western Cape Province, South Africa. Results: Fifty percent of patients were cured or completed treatment, 27% defaulted, 14% died, 4% failed treatment, and 5% transferred out. Recent alcohol use was common (63% of patients). In multivariable proportional hazards regression, older age (hazard ratio [HR]= 0.97 [95% confidence interval 0.94-0.99] per year of greater age), formal housing (HR=0.38 [0.19-0.78]), and steady employment (HR=0.41 [0.19-0.90]) were associated with decreased risk of default, while recent alcohol use (HR=2.1 [1.1-4.0]), recent drug use (HR=2.0 [1.0-3.6]), and Coloured (mixed ancestry) ethnicity (HR=2.3 [1.1-5.0]) were associated with increased risk of default (P<0.05). Defaults occurred throughout the first 18 months of the two-year treatment course but were especially frequent among alcohol users after discharge from the initial four-to-five-month in-hospital phase of treatment, with the highest default rates occurring among alcohol users within two months of discharge. Default rates during the first two months after discharge were also elevated for patients who received care from mobile clinics. Conclusions: Among patients who were not cured or did not complete MDR-TB treatment, the majority defaulted from treatment. Younger, economically-unstable patients and alcohol and drug users were particularly at risk. For alcohol users as well as mobile-clinic patients, the early outpatient treatment phase is a high-risk period for default that could be targeted in efforts to increase treatment completion rates.