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We study how satisfaction with government efforts to respond to the COVID-19 crisis affects compliance with pandemic mitigation measures. Using a novel longitudinal household survey for Germany, we overcome the identification and endogeneity challenges involved in estimating individual compliance by using an instrumental variable approach that exploits exogenous variation in two indicators measured before the crisis: political party preferences and the mode of information measured by the frequency of using social media and reading newspapers. We find that a one unit increase in subjective satisfaction (on the 0-10 scale) improves protective behavior by 2-4 percentage points. Satisfaction with the government's COVID-19 management is lower among individuals with right-wing partisan preferences and among individuals who use only social media as an information source. Overall, our results indicate that the effectiveness of uniform policy measures in various domains, such as the health system, social security or taxation, especially during pandemic crises, cannot be fully evaluated without taking individual preferences for collective action into account., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Jaschke et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: Rapid Diagnostic Tests (RDTs) for Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) at the point of care have the potential to increase access and acceptability of EVD testing and the speed of patient isolation and secure burials for suspect cases. A pilot program for EVD RDTs in high risk areas of Guinea was introduced in October 2015. This paper presents concordance data between EVD RDTs and PCR testing in the field as well as an assessment of the acceptability, feasibility, and quality assurance of the RDT program., Methods and Findings: Concordance data were compiled from laboratory surveillance databases. The operational measures of the laboratory-based EVD RDT program were evaluated at all 34 sentinel sites in Guinea through: (1) a technical questionnaire filled by the lab technicians who performed the RDTs, (2) a checklist filled by the evaluator during the site visits, and (3) direct observation of the lab technicians performing the quality control test. Acceptability of the EVD RDT was good for technicians, patients, and families although many technicians (69.8%) expressed concern for their safety while performing the test. The feasibility of the program was good based on average technician knowledge scores (6.6 out of 8) but basic infrastructure, equipment, and supplies were lacking. There was much room for improvement in quality assurance of the program., Conclusions: The implementation of new diagnostics in weak laboratory systems requires general training in quality assurance, biosafety and communication with patients in addition to specific training for the new test. Corresponding capacity building in terms of basic equipment and a long-term commitment to transfer supervision and quality improvement to national public health staff are necessary for successful implementation.

Historically the western sahelian dry regions of Mali are known to be highly endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) caused by Leishmania major, while cases are rarely reported from the Southern savanna forest of the country. Here, we report baseline prevalence of CL infection in 3 ecologically distinct districts of Mali (dry sahelian, north savanna and southern savanna forest areas). We screened 195 to 250 subjects from 50 to 60 randomly selected households in each of the 6 villages (four from the western sahelian district of Diema in Kayes region, one from the central district of Kolokani and one from the southern savanna district of Kolodieba, region of Sikasso). The screening consisted of: 1] A Leishmanin Skin Test (LST) for detection of exposure to Leishmania parasites; 2] clinical examination of suspected lesions, followed by validation with PCR and 3] finger prick blood sample to determine antibody levels to sand fly saliva. LST positivity was higher in the western district of Diema (49.9%) than in Kolokani (24.9%) and was much lower in Kolondieba (2.6%). LST positivity increased with age rising from 13.8% to 88% in Diema for age groups 2-5 years and 41-65 years, respectively. All eight PCR-confirmed L. major CL cases were diagnosed in subjects below 18 years of age and all were residents of the district of Diema. Exposure to sand fly bites, measured by anti-saliva antibody titers, was comparable in individuals living in all three districts. However, antibody titers were significantly higher in LST positive individuals (P<0.0001). In conclusion, CL transmission remains active in the western region of Mali where lesions were mainly prevalent among children under 18 years old. LST positivity correlated to higher levels of antibodies to sand fly salivary proteins, suggesting their potential as a risk marker for CL acquisition in Mali., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: The ongoing West African Ebola epidemic began in December 2013 in Guinea, probably from a single zoonotic introduction. As a result of ineffective initial control efforts, an Ebola outbreak of unprecedented scale emerged. As of 4 May 2015, it had resulted in more than 19,000 probable and confirmed Ebola cases, mainly in Guinea (3,529), Liberia (5,343), and Sierra Leone (10,746). Here, we present analyses of data collected during the outbreak identifying drivers of transmission and highlighting areas where control could be improved., Methods and Findings: Over 19,000 confirmed and probable Ebola cases were reported in West Africa by 4 May 2015. Individuals with confirmed or probable Ebola ("cases") were asked if they had exposure to other potential Ebola cases ("potential source contacts") in a funeral or non-funeral context prior to becoming ill. We performed retrospective analyses of a case line-list, collated from national databases of case investigation forms that have been reported to WHO. These analyses were initially performed to assist WHO's response during the epidemic, and have been updated for publication. We analysed data from 3,529 cases in Guinea, 5,343 in Liberia, and 10,746 in Sierra Leone; exposures were reported by 33% of cases. The proportion of cases reporting a funeral exposure decreased over time. We found a positive correlation (r = 0.35, p < 0.001) between this proportion in a given district for a given month and the within-district transmission intensity, quantified by the estimated reproduction number (R). We also found a negative correlation (r = -0.37, p < 0.001) between R and the district proportion of hospitalised cases admitted within ≤4 days of symptom onset. These two proportions were not correlated, suggesting that reduced funeral attendance and faster hospitalisation independently influenced local transmission intensity. We were able to identify 14% of potential source contacts as cases in the case line-list. Linking cases to the contacts who potentially infected them provided information on the transmission network. This revealed a high degree of heterogeneity in inferred transmissions, with only 20% of cases accounting for at least 73% of new infections, a phenomenon often called super-spreading. Multivariable regression models allowed us to identify predictors of being named as a potential source contact. These were similar for funeral and non-funeral contacts: severe symptoms, death, non-hospitalisation, older age, and travelling prior to symptom onset. Non-funeral exposures were strongly peaked around the death of the contact. There was evidence that hospitalisation reduced but did not eliminate onward exposures. We found that Ebola treatment units were better than other health care facilities at preventing exposure from hospitalised and deceased individuals. The principal limitation of our analysis is limited data quality, with cases not being entered into the database, cases not reporting exposures, or data being entered incorrectly (especially dates, and possible misclassifications)., Conclusions: Achieving elimination of Ebola is challenging, partly because of super-spreading. Safe funeral practices and fast hospitalisation contributed to the containment of this Ebola epidemic. Continued real-time data capture, reporting, and analysis are vital to track transmission patterns, inform resource deployment, and thus hasten and maintain elimination of the virus from the human population., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Cholera burden in Africa remains unknown, often because of weak national surveillance systems. We analyzed data from the African Cholera Surveillance Network (www.africhol.org)., Methods/ Principal Findings: During June 2011-December 2013, we conducted enhanced surveillance in seven zones and four outbreak sites in Togo, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Guinea, Uganda, Mozambique and Cote d'Ivoire. All health facilities treating cholera cases were included. Cholera incidences were calculated using culture-confirmed cholera cases and culture-confirmed cholera cases corrected for lack of culture testing usually due to overwhelmed health systems and imperfect test sensitivity. Of 13,377 reported suspected cases, 34% occurred in Conakry, Guinea, 47% in Goma, DRC, and 19% in the remaining sites. From 0-40% of suspected cases were aged under five years and from 0.3-86% had rice water stools. Within surveillance zones, 0-37% of suspected cases had confirmed cholera compared to 27-38% during outbreaks. Annual confirmed incidence per 10,000 population was <0.5 in surveillance zones, except Goma where it was 4.6. Goma and Conakry had corrected incidences of 20.2 and 5.8 respectively, while the other zones a median of 0.3. During outbreaks, corrected incidence varied from 2.6 to 13.0. Case fatality ratios ranged from 0-10% (median, 1%) by country., Conclusions/significance: Across different African epidemiological contexts, substantial variation occurred in cholera incidence, age distribution, clinical presentation, culture confirmation, and testing frequency. These results can help guide preventive activities, including vaccine use.

Introduction: Since 2010, WHO has recommended oral cholera vaccines as an additional strategy for cholera control. During a cholera episode, pregnant women are at high risk of complications, and the risk of fetal death has been reported to be 2-36%. Due to a lack of safety data, pregnant women have been excluded from most cholera vaccination campaigns. In 2012, reactive campaigns using the bivalent killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccine (BivWC), included all people living in the targeted areas aged ≥ 1 year regardless of pregnancy status, were implemented in Guinea. We aimed to determine whether there was a difference in pregnancy outcomes between vaccinated and non-vaccinated pregnant women., Methods and Findings: From 11 November to 4 December 2013, we conducted a retrospective cohort study in Boffa prefecture among women who were pregnant in 2012 during or after the vaccination campaign. The primary outcome was pregnancy loss, as reported by the mother, and fetal malformations, after clinical examination. Primary exposure was the intake of the BivWC vaccine (Shanchol) during pregnancy, as determined by a vaccination card or oral history. We compared the risk of pregnancy loss between vaccinated and non-vaccinated women through binomial regression analysis. A total of 2,494 pregnancies were included in the analysis. The crude incidence of pregnancy loss was 3.7% (95%CI 2.7-4.8) for fetuses exposed to BivWC vaccine and 2.6% (0.7-4.5) for non-exposed fetuses. The incidence of malformation was 0.6% (0.1-1.0) and 1.2% (0.0-2.5) in BivWC-exposed and non-exposed fetuses, respectively. In both crude and adjusted analyses, fetal exposure to BivWC was not significantly associated with pregnancy loss (adjusted risk ratio (aRR = 1.09 [95%CI: 0.5-2.25], p = 0.818) or malformations (aRR = 0.50 [95%CI: 0.13-1.91], p = 0.314)., Conclusions: In this large retrospective cohort study, we found no association between fetal exposure to BivWC and risk of pregnancy loss or malformation. Despite the weaknesses of a retrospective design, we can conclude that if a risk exists, it is very low. Additional prospective studies are warranted to add to the evidence base on OCV use during pregnancy. Pregnant women are particularly vulnerable during cholera episodes and should be included in vaccination campaigns when the risk of cholera is high, such as during outbreaks.

Background: The case fatality ratio (CFR) of Ebola virus disease (EVD) can vary over time and space for reasons that are not fully understood. This makes it difficult to define the baseline CFRs needed to evaluate treatments in the absence of randomized controls. Here, we investigate whether viremia in EVD patients may be used to evaluate baseline EVD CFRs., Methods and Findings: We analyzed the laboratory and epidemiological records of patients with EVD confirmed by reverse transcription PCR hospitalized in the Conakry area, Guinea, between 1 March 2014 and 28 February 2015. We used viremia and other variables to model the CFR. Data for 699 EVD patients were analyzed. In the week following symptom onset, mean viremia remained stable, and the CFR increased with viremia, V, from 21% (95% CI 16%-27%) for low viremia (V < 104.4 copies/ml) to 53% (95% CI 44%-61%) for intermediate viremia (104.4 ≤ V < 105.2 copies/ml) and 81% (95% CI 75%-87%) for high viremia (V ≥ 105.2 copies/ml). Compared to adults (15-44 y old [y.o.]), the CFR was larger in young children (0-4 y.o.) (odds ratio [OR]: 2.44; 95% CI 1.02-5.86) and older adults (≥ 45 y.o.) (OR: 2.84; 95% CI 1.81-4.46) but lower in children (5-14 y.o.) (OR: 0.46; 95% CI 0.24-0.86). An order of magnitude increase in mean viremia in cases after July 2014 compared to those before coincided with a 14% increase in the CFR. Our findings come from a large hospital-based study in Conakry and may not be generalizable to settings with different case profiles, such as with individuals who never sought care., Conclusions: Viremia in EVD patients was a strong predictor of death that partly explained variations in CFR in the study population. This study provides baseline CFRs by viremia group, which allow appropriate adjustment when estimating efficacy in treatment studies. In randomized controlled trials, stratifying analysis on viremia groups could reduce sample size requirements by 25%. We hypothesize that monitoring the viremia of hospitalized patients may inform the ability of surveillance systems to detect EVD patients from the different severity strata.

Background: Since cholera appeared in Africa during the 1970s, cases have been reported on the continent every year. In Sub-Saharan Africa, cholera outbreaks primarily cluster at certain hotspots including the African Great Lakes Region and West Africa., Methodology/principal Findings: In this study, we applied MLVA (Multi-Locus Variable Number Tandem Repeat Analysis) typing of 337 Vibrio cholerae isolates from recent cholera epidemics in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Zambia, Guinea and Togo. We aimed to assess the relationship between outbreaks. Applying this method, we identified 89 unique MLVA haplotypes across our isolate collection. MLVA typing revealed the short-term divergence and microevolution of these Vibrio cholerae populations to provide insight into the dynamics of cholera outbreaks in each country. Our analyses also revealed strong geographical clustering. Isolates from the African Great Lakes Region (DRC and Zambia) formed a closely related group, while West African isolates (Togo and Guinea) constituted a separate cluster. At a country-level scale our analyses revealed several distinct MLVA groups, most notably DRC 2011/2012, DRC 2009, Zambia 2012 and Guinea 2012. We also found that certain MLVA types collected in the DRC persisted in the country for several years, occasionally giving rise to expansive epidemics. Finally, we found that the six environmental isolates in our panel were unrelated to the epidemic isolates., Conclusions/significance: To effectively combat the disease, it is critical to understand the mechanisms of cholera emergence and diffusion in a region-specific manner. Overall, these findings demonstrate the relationship between distinct epidemics in West Africa and the African Great Lakes Region. This study also highlights the importance of monitoring and analyzing Vibrio cholerae isolates.

Cholera is typically considered endemic in West Africa, especially in the Republic of Guinea. However, a three-year lull period was observed from 2009 to 2011, before a new epidemic struck the country in 2012, which was officially responsible for 7,350 suspected cases and 133 deaths. To determine whether cholera re-emerged from the aquatic environment or was rather imported due to human migration, a comprehensive epidemiological and molecular survey was conducted. A spatiotemporal analysis of the national case databases established Kaback Island, located off the southern coast of Guinea, as the initial focus of the epidemic in early February. According to the field investigations, the index case was found to be a fisherman who had recently arrived from a coastal district of neighboring Sierra Leone, where a cholera outbreak had recently occurred. MLVA-based genotype mapping of 38 clinical Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor isolates sampled throughout the epidemic demonstrated a progressive genetic diversification of the strains from a single genotype isolated on Kaback Island in February, which correlated with spatial epidemic spread. Whole-genome sequencing characterized this strain as an "atypical" El Tor variant. Furthermore, genome-wide SNP-based phylogeny analysis grouped the Guinean strain into a new clade of the third wave of the seventh pandemic, distinct from previously analyzed African strains and directly related to a Bangladeshi isolate. Overall, these results highly suggest that the Guinean 2012 epidemic was caused by a V. cholerae clone that was likely imported from Sierra Leone by an infected individual. These results indicate the importance of promoting the cross-border identification and surveillance of mobile and vulnerable populations, including fishermen, to prevent, detect and control future epidemics in the region. Comprehensive epidemiological investigations should be expanded to better understand cholera dynamics and improve disease control strategies throughout the African continent.

Unlabelled: Apart from a single report, the last publication of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Mali dates back more than 20 years. The absence of information on the current status of CL in Mali led us to conduct a cohort study in Kemena and Sougoula, two villages in Central Mali from which cases of CL have been recently diagnosed by Mali's reference dermatology center in Bamako. In May 2006, we determined the baseline prevalence of Leishmania infection in the two villages using the leishmanin skin test (LST). LST-negative individuals were then re-tested over two consecutive years to estimate the annual incidence of Leishmania infection. The prevalence of Leishmania infection was significantly higher in Kemena than in Sougoula (45.4% vs. 19.9%; OR: 3.36, CI: 2.66-4.18). The annual incidence of Leishmania infection was also significantly higher in Kemena (18.5% and 17% for 2007 and 2008, respectively) than in Sougoula (5.7% for both years). These data demonstrate that the risk of Leishmania infection was stable in both villages and confirm the initial observation of a significantly higher risk of infection in Kemena (OR: 3.78; CI: 2.45-6.18 in 2007; and OR: 3.36; CI: 1.95-5.8 in 2008; P<0.005). The absence of spatial clustering of LST-positive individuals in both villages indicated that transmission may be occurring anywhere within the villages. Although Kemena and Sougoula are only 5 km apart and share epidemiologic characteristics such as stable transmission and random distribution of LST-positive individuals, they differ markedly in the prevalence and annual incidence of Leishmania infection. Here we establish ongoing transmission of Leishmania in Kemena and Sougoula, Central Mali, and are currently investigating the underlying factors that may be responsible for the discrepant infection rates we observed between them., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00344084.