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Background: Australia is theoretically at risk of epidemic chikungunya virus (CHIKV) activity as the principal vectors are present on the mainland Aedes aegypti) and some islands of the Torres Strait (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus). Both vectors are highly invasive and adapted to urban environments with a capacity to expand their distributions into south-east Queensland and other states in Australia. We sought to estimate the epidemic potential of CHIKV, which is not currently endemic in Australia, by considering exclusively transmission by the established vector in Australia, Ae. aegypti, due to the historical relevance and anthropophilic nature of the vector., Methodology/principal Findings: We estimated the historical (1995-2019) epidemic potential of CHIKV in eleven Australian locations, including the Torres Strait, using a basic reproduction number equation. We found that the main urban centres of Northern Australia could sustain an epidemic of CHIKV. We then estimated future trends in epidemic potential for the main centres for the years 2020 to 2029. We also conducted uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the variables comprising the basic reproduction number and found high sensitivity to mosquito population size, human population size, impact of vector control and human infectious period., Conclusions/significance: By estimating the epidemic potential for CHIKV transmission on mainland Australia and the Torres Strait, we identified key areas of focus for controlling vector populations and reducing human exposure. As the epidemic potential of the virus is estimated to rise towards 2029, a greater focus on control and prevention measures should be implemented in at-risk locations., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Since 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks have occurred in the Americas and the Pacific involving mosquito-borne and sexual transmission. ZIKV has also emerged as a risk to global blood transfusion safety. Aedes aegypti, a mosquito well established in north and some parts of central and southern Queensland, Australia, transmits ZIKV. Aedes albopictus, another potential ZIKV vector, is a threat to mainland Australia. Since these conditions create the potential for local transmission in Australia and a possible uncertainty in the effectiveness of blood donor risk-mitigation programs, we investigated the possible impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission of ZIKV in Australia on local blood transfusion safety., Methodology/principal Findings: We estimated 'best-' and 'worst-' case scenarios of monthly reproduction number (R0) for both transmission pathways of ZIKV from 1996-2015 in 11 urban or regional population centres, by varying epidemiological and entomological estimates. We then estimated the attack rate and subsequent number of infectious people to quantify the ZIKV transfusion-transmission risk using the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool. For all scenarios and with both vector species R0 was lower than one for ZIKV transmission. However, a higher risk of a sustained outbreak was estimated for Cairns, Rockhampton, Thursday Island, and theoretically in Darwin during the warmest months of the year. The yearly estimation of the risk of transmitting ZIKV infection by blood transfusion remained low through the study period for all locations, with the highest potential risk estimated in Darwin., Conclusions/significance: Given the increasing demand for plasma products in Australia, the current strategy of restricting donors returning from infectious disease outbreak regions to source plasma collection provides a simple and effective risk management approach. However, if local transmission was suspected in the main urban centres of Australia, potentially facilitated by the geographic range expansion of Ae. aegypti or Ae. albopictus, this mitigation strategy would need urgent review., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen circulating in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Although autochthonous transmission has not been reported in Australia, there is a potential risk of local CHIKV outbreaks due to the presence of suitable vectors, global trade, frequent international travel and human adaptation to changes in climate., Methodology/principal Findings: A time series seasonal decomposition method was used to investigate the seasonality and trend of monthly imported CHIKV cases. This pattern was compared with the seasonality and trend of monthly overseas arrivals. A wavelet coherence analysis was applied to examine the transient relationships between monthly imported CHIKV cases and southern oscillation index (SOI) in time-frequency space. We found that the number and geographical distribution of countries of acquisition for CHIKV in travellers to Australia has increased in recent years. The number of monthly imported CHIKV cases displayed an unstable increased trend compared with a stable linear increased trend in monthly overseas arrivals. Both imported CHIKV cases and overseas arrivals showed substantial seasonality, with the strongest seasonal effects in each January, followed by each October and July. The wavelet coherence analysis identified four significant transient relationships between monthly imported CHIKV cases and 6-month lagged moving average SOI, in the years 2009-2010, 2012, 2014 and 2015-2016., Conclusion/significance: High seasonal peaks of imported CHIKV cases were consistent with the high seasonal peaks of overseas arrivals into Australia. Our analysis also indicates that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variation may impact CHIKV epidemics in endemic regions, in turn influencing the pattern of imported cases., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

A key determinant of insect persistence in marginal habitats is the ability to tolerate environmental extremes such as temperature. Aedes aegypti is highly invasive and little is known about the physiological sensitivity of the species to fluctuating temperature regimes at the lower critical threshold for development. A temperature that may limit the establishment and persistence of the species in sub-optimal regions. Daily winter temperatures were measured in common Australian larval habitats, replicated in environmental chambers and used to investigate the effect of fluctuating temperatures on the development and survival of tropical and subtropical strains of Australian Ae. aegypti. Development was slow for all treatments but both strains were able to complete development to the adult stage, suggesting previous models underestimate the potential for the species to persist in eastern Australia. Results suggested that thermal buffering in large volume habitats, and water that persists for greater than 32 days, will facilitate completion of the life cycle during sub-tropical winters. Furthermore, we provide a non-linear estimate of the lower critical temperature for Ae. aegypti development that suggests the current threshold may be incorrect. Our study demonstrates that the current re-introduction of water storage containers such as rainwater tanks, into major Australian population centres will increase the risk of Ae. aegypti establishment by permitting year-round development in locations south of its current distribution., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) is a highly invasive mosquito whose global distribution has fluctuated dramatically over the last 100 years. In Australia the distribution of Ae. aegypti once spanned the eastern seaboard, for 3,000 km north to south. However, during the 1900s this distribution markedly reduced and the mosquito disappeared from its southern range. Numerous hypotheses have been proffered for this retraction, however quantitative evidence of the mechanisms driving the disappearance are lacking. We examine historical records during the period when Ae. aegypti disappeared from Brisbane, the largest population centre in Queensland, Australia. In particular, we focus on the targeted management of Ae. aegypti by government authorities, that led to local elimination, something rarely observed in large cities. Numerous factors are likely to be responsible including the removal of larval habitat, especially domestic rainwater tanks, in combination with increased mosquito surveillance and regulatory enforcement. This account of historical events as they pertain to the elimination of Ae. aegypti from Brisbane, will inform assessments of the risks posed by recent human responses to climate change and the reintroduction of 300,000 rainwater tanks into the State over the past decade.

Background: The globally important Zika, dengue and chikungunya viruses are primarily transmitted by the invasive mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. In Australia, there is an increasing risk that these species may invade highly urbanized regions and trigger outbreaks. We describe the development of a Rapid Surveillance for Vector Presence (RSVP) system to expedite presence- absence surveys for both species., Methodology/principal Findings: We developed a methodology that uses molecular assays to efficiently screen pooled ovitrap (egg trap) samples for traces of target species ribosomal RNA. Firstly, specific real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assays were developed which detect a single Ae. aegypti or Ae. albopictus first instar larva in samples containing 4,999 and 999 non-target mosquitoes, respectively. ImageJ software was evaluated as an automated egg counting tool using ovitrap collections obtained from Brisbane, Australia. Qualitative assessment of ovistrips was required prior to automation because ImageJ did not differentiate between Aedes eggs and other objects or contaminants on 44.5% of ovistrips assessed, thus compromising the accuracy of egg counts. As a proof of concept, the RSVP was evaluated in Brisbane, Rockhampton and Goomeri, locations where Ae. aegypti is considered absent, present, and at the margin of its range, respectively. In Brisbane, Ae. aegypti was not detected in 25 pools formed from 477 ovitraps, comprising ≈ 54,300 eggs. In Rockhampton, Ae. aegypti was detected in 4/6 pools derived from 45 ovitraps, comprising ≈ 1,700 eggs. In Goomeri, Ae. aegypti was detected in 5/8 pools derived from 62 ovitraps, comprising ≈ 4,200 eggs., Conclusions/significance: RSVP can rapidly detect nucleic acids from low numbers of target species within large samples of endemic species aggregated from multiple ovitraps. This screening capability facilitates deployment of ovitrap configurations of varying spatial scales, from a single residential block to entire suburbs or towns. RSVP is a powerful tool for surveillance of invasive Aedes spp., validation of species eradication and quality assurance for vector control operations implemented during disease outbreaks.

Introduction: Zika virus could be transmitted in the state of Queensland, Australia, in parts of the state where the mosquito vectors are established., Methods: We assessed the epidemic potential of Zika in Queensland from January 2015 to August 2016, and estimate the epidemic potential from September to December 2016, by calculating the temperature-dependent relative vectorial capacity (rVc), based on empirical and estimated parameters., Results: Through 2015, we estimated a rVc of 0.119, 0.152, 0.170, and 0.175, respectively in the major cities of Brisbane, Rockhampton, Cairns, and Townsville. From January to August 2016, the epidemic potential trend was similar to 2015, however the highest epidemic potential was in Cairns. During September to November 2016, the epidemic potential is consistently the highest in Cairns, followed by Townsville, Rockhampton and Brisbane. Then, from November to December 2016, Townsville has the highest estimated epidemic potential., Discussion: We demonstrate using a vectorial capacity model that ZIKV could have been locally transmitted in Queensland, Australia during 2015 and 2016. ZIKV remains a threat to Australia for the upcoming summer, during the Brazilian Carnival season, when the abundance of vectors is relatively high. Understanding the epidemic potential of local ZIKV transmission will allow better management of threats to blood safety and assessment of public health risk.

The global re-emergence of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) over the last decade presents a serious public health risk to Australia. An increasing number of imported cases further underline the potential for local transmission to occur if local mosquitoes bite an infected traveller. Laboratory experiments have identified a number of competent Australian mosquito species, including the primary vectors of CHIKV abroad, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, and local endemic species Aedes vigilax and Aedes notoscriptus. The implication of these additional endemic species as potential vectors has generated much uncertainty amongst public health professionals regarding their actual role in CHIKV transmission in the field. Using data estimated from or documented in the literature, we parameterise a simple vectorial capacity model to evaluate the relative roles of Australian mosquito species in potential CHIKV transmission. The model takes into account a number of key biological and ecological variables which influence the role of a species in field transmission, including population density, human feeding rates, mosquito survival rates and vector competence. We confirm the relative importance of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in sustaining potential CHIKV transmission in Australia. Even at maximum estimated densities and human feeding rates, Ae. vigilax and Ae. notoscriptus are likely to play a relatively minor role in CHIKV transmission, when compared with either Ae. aegypti or Ae. albopictus. This relatively straightforward analysis has application for any region where mosquito species have been incriminated in vector competence experiments, but where their actual role in CHIKV transmission has not been established.