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Background Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). Methods and findings The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. Conclusions COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year., Author(s): Sung-mok Jung 1, Sara L. Loo 2, Emily Howerton 3, Lucie Contamin 4, Claire P. Smith 2, Erica C. Carcelén 2, Katie Yan 3, Samantha J. Bents 5, John [...]

Mathematical models are powerful tools to investigate, simulate, and evaluate potential interventions for infectious diseases dynamics. Much effort has focused on the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)-type compartment models. These models consider host populations and measure change of each compartment. In this study, we propose an alternative patch dynamic modeling framework from pathogens' perspective. Each patch, the basic module of this modeling framework, has four standard mechanisms of pathogen population size change: birth (replication), death, inflow, and outflow. This framework naturally distinguishes between-host transmission process (inflow and outflow) and within-host infection process (replication) during the entire transmission-infection cycle. We demonstrate that the SIR-type model is actually a special cross-sectional and discretized case of our patch dynamics model in pathogens' viewpoint. In addition, this patch dynamics modeling framework is also an agent-based model from hosts' perspective by incorporating individual host's specific traits. We provide an operational standard to formulate this modular-designed patch dynamics model. Model parameterization is feasible with a wide range of sources, including genomics data, surveillance data, electronic health record, and from other emerging technologies such as multiomics. We then provide two proof-of-concept case studies to tackle some of the existing challenges of SIR-type models: sexually transmitted disease and healthcare acquired infections. This patch dynamics modeling framework not only provides theoretical explanations to known phenomena, but also generates novel insights of disease dynamics from a more holistic viewpoint. It is also able to simulate and handle more complicated scenarios across biological scales such as the current COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plasmodium vivax malaria is much less common in Africa than the rest of the world because the parasite relies primarily on the Duffy antigen/chemokine receptor (DARC) to invade human erythrocytes, and the majority of Africans are Duffy negative. Recently, there has been a dramatic increase in the reporting of P. vivax cases in Africa, with a high number of them being in Duffy negative individuals, potentially indicating P. vivax has evolved an alternative invasion mechanism that can overcome Duffy negativity. Here, we analyzed single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and copy number variation (CNV) in Whole Genome Sequence (WGS) data from 44 P. vivax samples isolated from symptomatic malaria patients in southwestern Ethiopia, where both Duffy positive and Duffy negative individuals are found. A total of 123,711 SNPs were detected, of which 22.7% were nonsynonymous and 77.3% were synonymous mutations. The largest number of SNPs were detected on chromosomes 9 (24,007 SNPs; 19.4% of total) and 10 (16,852 SNPs, 13.6% of total). There were particularly high levels of polymorphism in erythrocyte binding gene candidates including merozoite surface protein 1 (MSP1) and merozoite surface protein 3 (MSP3.5, MSP3.85 and MSP3.9). Two genes, MAEBL and MSP3.8 related to immunogenicity and erythrocyte binding function were detected with significant signals of positive selection. Variation in gene copy number was also concentrated in genes involved in host-parasite interactions, including the expansion of the Duffy binding protein gene (PvDBP) on chromosome 6 and MSP3.11 on chromosome 10. Based on the phylogeny constructed from the whole genome sequences, the expansion of these genes was an independent process among the P. vivax lineages in Ethiopia. We further inferred transmission patterns of P. vivax infections among study sites and showed various levels of gene flow at a small geographical scale. The genomic features of P. vivax provided baseline data for future comparison with those in Duffy-negative individuals and allowed us to develop a panel of informative Single Nucleotide Polymorphic markers diagnostic at a micro-geographical scale. Author summary: Plasmodium vivax is the most geographically widespread parasite species that causes malaria in humans. Although it occurs in Africa as a member of a mix of Plasmodium species, P. vivax is dominant in other parts of the world outside of Africa (e.g., Brazil). It was previously thought that most African populations were immune to P. vivax infections due to the absence of Duffy antigen chemokine receptor (DARC) gene expression required for erythrocyte invasion. However, several recent reports have indicated the emergence and potential spread of P. vivax across human populations in Africa. Compared to Southeast Asia and South America where P. vivax is highly endemic, data on polymorphisms in erythrocyte binding gene candidates of P. vivax from Africa is limited. Filling this knowlege gap is critical for identifying functional genes in erythrocyte invasion, biomarkers for tracking the P. vivax isolates from Africa, as well as potential gene targets for vaccine development. This paper examined the level of genetic polymorphisms in a panel of 43 potential erythrocyte binding protein genes based on whole genome sequences and described transmission patterns of P. vivax infections from different study sites in Ethiopia based on the genetic variants. Our analyses showed that chromosomes 9 and 10 of the P. vivax genomes isolated in Ethiopia had the most high-quality genetic polymorphisms. Among all erythrocyte binding protein gene candidates, the merozoite surface proteins 1 and merozoite surface protein 3 showed high levels of polymorphism. MAEBL and MSP3.8 related to immunogenicity and erythrocyte binding function were detected with significant signals of positive selection. The expansion of the Duffy binding protein and merozoite surface protein 3 gene copies was an independent process among the P. vivax lineages in Ethiopia. Various levels of gene flow were observed even at a smaller geographical scale. Our study provided baseline data for future comparison with P. vivax in Duffy negative individuals and help develop a panel of genetic markers that are informative at a micro-geographical scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cell signaling pathways play key roles in coordinating cellular events in development. The Notch signaling pathway is highly conserved across all multicellular animals and is known to coordinate a multitude of diverse cellular events, including proliferation, differentiation, fate specification, and cell death. Specific functions of the pathway are, however, highly context-dependent and are not well characterized in post-traumatic regeneration. Here, we use a small-molecule inhibitor of the pathway (DAPT) to demonstrate that Notch signaling is required for proper arm regeneration in the brittle star Ophioderma brevispina, a highly regenerative member of the phylum Echinodermata. We also employ a transcriptome-wide gene expression analysis (RNA-seq) to characterize the downstream genes controlled by the Notch pathway in the brittle star regeneration. We demonstrate that arm regeneration involves an extensive cross-talk between the Notch pathway and other cell signaling pathways. In the regrowing arm, Notch regulates the composition of the extracellular matrix, cell migration, proliferation, and apoptosis, as well as components of the innate immune response. We also show for the first time that Notch signaling regulates the activity of several transposable elements. Our data also suggests that one of the possible mechanisms through which Notch sustains its activity in the regenerating tissues is via suppression of Neuralized1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plasmodium vivax invasion of human erythrocytes depends on the Duffy Binding Protein (PvDBP) which interacts with the Duffy antigen. PvDBP copy number has been recently shown to vary between P. vivax isolates in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the extent of PvDBP copy number variation, the type of PvDBP multiplications, as well as its significance across broad samples are still unclear. We determined the prevalence and type of PvDBP duplications, as well as PvDBP copy number variation among 178 Ethiopian P. vivax isolates using a PCR-based diagnostic method, a novel quantitative real-time PCR assay and whole genome sequencing. For the 145 symptomatic samples, PvDBP duplications were detected in 95 isolates, of which 81 had the Cambodian and 14 Malagasy-type PvDBP duplications. PvDBP varied from 1 to >4 copies. Isolates with multiple PvDBP copies were found to be higher in symptomatic than asymptomatic infections. For the 33 asymptomatic samples, PvDBP was detected with two copies in two of the isolates, and both were the Cambodian-type PvDBP duplication. PvDBP copy number in Duffy-negative heterozygotes was not significantly different from that in Duffy-positives, providing no support for the hypothesis that increased copy number is a specific association with Duffy-negativity, although the number of Duffy-negatives was small and further sampling is required to test this association thoroughly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While overall rates of meningococcal disease have been declining in the United States for the past several decades, New York City (NYC) has experienced two serogroup C meningococcal disease outbreaks in 2005–2006 and in 2010–2013. The outbreaks were centered within drug use and sexual networks, were difficult to control, and required vaccine campaigns. Methods: Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) was used to analyze preserved meningococcal isolates collected before and during the two outbreaks. We integrated and analyzed epidemiologic, geographic, and genomic data to better understand transmission networks among patients. Betweenness centrality was used as a metric to understand the most important geographic nodes in the transmission networks. Comparative genomics was used to identify genes associated with the outbreaks. Results: Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C (ST11/ET-37) was responsible for both outbreaks with each outbreak having distinct phylogenetic clusters. WGS did identify some misclassifications of isolates that were more distant from the outbreak strains, as well as those that should have been included based on high genomic similarity. Genomes for the second outbreak were more similar than the first and no polymorphism was found to either be unique or specific to either outbreak lineage. Betweenness centrality as applied to transmission networks based on phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that the outbreaks were transmitted within focal communities in NYC with few transmission events to other locations. Conclusions: Neisseria meningitidis is an ever changing pathogen and comparative genomic analyses can help elucidate how it spreads geographically to facilitate targeted interventions to interrupt transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Reports of high rates of primary microcephaly and Guillain–Barré syndrome associated with Zika virus infection in French Polynesia and Brazil have raised concerns that the virus circulating in these regions is a rapidly developing neuropathic, teratogenic, emerging infectious public health threat. There are no licensed medical countermeasures (vaccines, therapies or preventive drugs) available for Zika virus infection and disease. The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) predicts that Zika virus will continue to spread and eventually reach all countries and territories in the Americas with endemic Aedes mosquitoes. This paper reviews the status of the Zika virus outbreak, including medical countermeasure options, with a focus on how the epidemiology, insect vectors, neuropathology, virology and immunology inform options and strategies available for medical countermeasure development and deployment. Methods: Multiple information sources were employed to support the review. These included publically available literature, patents, official communications, English and Lusophone lay press. Online surveys were distributed to physicians in the US, Mexico and Argentina and responses analyzed. Computational epitope analysis as well as infectious disease outbreak modeling and forecasting were implemented. Field observations in Brazil were compiled and interviews conducted with public health officials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent genomic information has revealed that neuroglobin and cytoglobin are the two principal lineages of vertebrate hemoglobins, with the latter encompassing the familiar myoglobin and α-globin/β-globin tetramer hemoglobin, and several minor groups. In contrast, very little is known about hemoglobins in echinoderms, a phylum of exclusively marine organisms closely related to vertebrates, beyond the presence of coelomic hemoglobins in sea cucumbers and brittle stars. We identified about 50 hemoglobins in sea urchin, starfish and sea cucumber genomes and transcriptomes, and used Bayesian inference to carry out a molecular phylogenetic analysis of their relationship to vertebrate sequences, specifically, to assess the hypothesis that the neuroglobin and cytoglobin lineages are also present in echinoderms. Results: The genome of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus encodes several hemoglobins, including a unique chimeric 14-domain globin, 2 androglobin isoforms and a unique single androglobin domain protein. Other strongylocentrotid genomes appear to have similar repertoires of globin genes. We carried out molecular phylogenetic analyses of 52 hemoglobins identified in sea urchin, brittle star and sea cucumber genomes and transcriptomes, using different multiple sequence alignment methods coupled with Bayesian and maximum likelihood approaches. The results demonstrate that there are two major globin lineages in echinoderms, which are related to the vertebrate neuroglobin and cytoglobin lineages. Furthermore, the brittle star and sea cucumber coelomic hemoglobins appear to have evolved independently from the cytoglobin lineage, similar to the evolution of erythroid oxygen binding globins in cyclostomes and vertebrates. Conclusion: The presence of echinoderm globins related to the vertebrate neuroglobin and cytoglobin lineages suggests that the split between neuroglobins and cytoglobins occurred in the deuterostome ancestor shared by echinoderms and vertebrates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Schistosoma japonicum causes major public health problems in China and the Philippines; this parasite, which is transmitted by freshwater snails of the species Oncomelania hupensis, causes the disease intestinal schistosomiasis in humans and cattle. Researchers working on Schistosoma in Africa have described the relationship between the parasites and their snail intermediate hosts as coevolved or even as an evolutionary arms race. In the present study this hypothesis of coevolution is evaluated for S. japonicum and O. hupensis. The origins and radiation of the snails and the parasite across China, and the taxonomic validity of the sub-species of O. hupensis, are also assessed. Methodology/Principal Findings: The findings provide no evidence for coevolution between S. japonicum and O. hupensis, and the phylogeographical analysis suggests a heterochronous radiation of the parasites and snails in response to different palaeogeographical and climatic triggers. The results are consistent with a hypothesis of East to West colonisation of China by Oncomelania with a re-invasion of Japan by O. hupensis from China. The Taiwan population of S. japonicum appears to be recently established in comparison with mainland Chinese populations. Conclusions/Significance: The snail and parasite populations of the western mountain region of China (Yunnan and Sichuan) appear to have been isolated from Southeast Asian populations since the Pleistocene; this has implications for road and rail links being constructed in the region, which will breach biogeographical barriers between China and Southeast Asia. The results also have implications for the spread of S. japonicum. In the absence of coevolution, the parasite may more readily colonise new snail populations to which it is not locally adapted, or even new intermediate host species; this can facilitate its dispersal into new areas. Additional work is required to assess further the risk of spread of S. japonicum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A unique pattern of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks has emerged along the Central Asia Flyway, where infection of wild birds has been reported with steady frequency since 2005. We assessed the potential for two hosts of HPAI H5N1, the bar-headed goose (Anser indicus) and ruddy shelduck (Tadorna tadorna), to act as agents for virus dispersal along this 'thoroughfare'. We used an eco-virological approach to compare the migration of 141 birds marked with GPS satellite transmitters during 2005-2010 with: 1) the spatio-temporal patterns of poultry and wild bird outbreaks of HPAI H5N1, and 2) the trajectory of the virus in the outbreak region based on phylogeographic mapping. We found that biweekly utilization distributions (UDs) for 19.2% of bar-headed geese and 46.2% of ruddy shelduck were significantly associated with outbreaks. Ruddy shelduck showed highest correlation with poultry outbreaks owing to their wintering distribution in South Asia, where there is considerable opportunity for HPAI H5N1 spillover from poultry. Both species showed correlation with wild bird outbreaks during the spring migration, suggesting they may be involved in the northward movement of the virus. However, phylogeographic mapping of HPAI H5N1 clades 2.2 and 2.3 did not support dissemination of the virus in a northern direction along the migration corridor. In particular, two subclades (2.2.1 and 2.3.2) moved in a strictly southern direction in contrast to our spatio-temporal analysis of bird migration. Our attempt to reconcile the disciplines of wild bird ecology and HPAI H5N1 virology highlights prospects offered by both approaches as well as their limitations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comparing bacterial 16S rDNA sequences to GenBank and other large public databases via BLAST often provides results of little use for identification and taxonomic assignment of the organisms of interest. The human microbiome, and in particular the oral microbiome, includes many taxa, and accurate identification of sequence data is essential for studies of these communities. For this purpose, a phylogenetically curated 16S rDNA database of the core oral microbiome, CORE, was developed. The goal was to include a comprehensive and minimally redundant representation of the bacteria that regularly reside in the human oral cavity with computationally robust classification at the level of species and genus. Clades of cultivated and uncultivated taxa were formed based on sequence analyses using multiple criteria, including maximum-likelihood- based topology and bootstrap support, genetic distance, and previous naming. A number of classification inconsistencies for previously named species, especially at the level of genus, were resolved. The performance of the CORE database for identifying clinical sequences was compared to that of three publicly available databases, GenBank nr/nt, RDP and HOMD, using a set of sequencing reads that had not been used in creation of the database. CORE offered improved performance compared to other public databases for identification of human oral bacterial 16S sequences by a number of criteria. In addition, the CORE database and phylogenetic tree provide a framework for measures of community divergence, and the focused size of the database offers advantages of efficiency for BLAST searching of large datasets. The CORE database is available as a searchable interface and for download at http://microbiome.osu.edu. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]