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Classifying animal behaviors in their natural environments is both challenging and ecologically important, but the use of biologgers with multiple sensors has significantly advanced this research beyond the capabilities of traditional methods alone. Here, we show how biologgers containing an integrated tri-axial accelerometer, GPS logger and immersion sensor were used to infer behavioural states of a cryptic, freshwater turtle, the Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii). Biologgers were attached to three males and five females that reside in two undisturbed coastal marshes in northeastern Georgian Bay (Ontario, Canada) between May and July 2023. Raw acceleration values were separated into static and dynamic acceleration and subsequently used to calculate overall dynamic body acceleration (ODBA) and pitch. The unsupervised Hidden Markov Model (HMM) successfully differentiated five behavioural states as follows: active in water, resting in water, active out of water, resting in water, and nesting. Overall accuracy of the classification was 93.8%, and except for nesting (79%), all other behaviours were above 92%. There were significant differences in daily activity budgets between male and female turtles, with females spending a greater proportion of time active out of water, and inactive out of the water, while males spent a greater proportion of time active in water. These differences were likely a result of large seasonal life-history requirements such as nesting and mate finding. Accurate classification of behavioural states is important for researchers to understand fine-scale activities carried out during the active season and how environmental variables may influence the behaviours of turtles in their natural habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large carnivores play a crucial role in the ecosystem, though their conservation needs a landscape-level approach due to their wide range of habitats and dispersal events. The study of tigers in a human-dominated landscape matrix and their adaptation and adjustment of movement behaviours during the dispersal phase is essential for long-term conservation planning and management policy. We studied the dispersal event of five VHF/GPS collared individuals during 2009–2020. We investigated movement parameters (step length), and the effects of anthropogenic pressures (distance from village), distance from water and vegetation cover, on behavioural phase under a Hidden Markov Model framework. We also tested the effects of distance from village, vegetation cover, and habitat types on animal movement using an integrated Step Selection Function framework. The mean step length (405.44±10.63 m/hr) varied widely by different time of day. Displacement was high during the night (665.28±21.36 m/hr) compared to day (434.16±17.37 m/hr). Tigers moved fast (872.7m; 95% CI 839.1–906.3m) with longer step length and a directional turning angle in non-forested areas (i.e. the human-dominated landscape), likely to avoid conflict with humans. Individuals distinctly exhibited two behavioural states: encamping (~32% of the time) and travelling (~68% of the time). Further, they avoided the human-dominated landscape and mostly remained in and forested areas, especially during nighttime. Our study is the first attempt to understand behavioural transition of dispersal tigers and their habitat selection. Lesser anthropogenic disturbance and high vegetation cover positively influenced the tiger dispersal, while water availability did not affect their state transitional probability. Additionally, dispersers showed high affinity towards forested land during nighttime for travelling.The findings of this study show the importance of functional corridors and stepping stones (mostly encamping areas), and also provide baseline knowledge for integrated landscape management planning and policymaking for the long-term survival of tigers in metapopulation framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nesting colonial seabirds are prime examples of central-place foragers, animals that must return to a central location (e.g., a breeding colony) after each bout of foraging. They must balance the costs and benefits of foraging with the need to return to their colonies frequently to form pair bonds during courtship, incubate, provision mates and offspring, and protect and rear young. For some populations, the loss and degradation of suitable breeding habitat due to human activities have necessitated the construction of new breeding sites and/or the restoration of previously occupied sites. South Island, which is part of the Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel (HRBT) complex in the Commonwealth of Virginia, U.S.A., is a human-created island that supported Virginia's largest mixed species seabird colony until 2020, when the expansion of the HRBT began and when all nesting seabirds were permanently excluded from the site. We studied the movement patterns of foraging common terns (Sterna hirundo) to determine how travel to and around foraging sites related to their colony location and to inform the siting and construction of a new breeding island. We tracked 18 individual common terns from 07 June to 29 June 2018, and we used a hidden Markov model to assign behavioral states and investigate common tern movements around the HRBT. Common terns spent more than half their time in the colony (58%), followed by time devoted to foraging (22%), and the remainder of their time was spent on outbound (15%) and inbound (5%) transit. Terns traveled as far as 98km from the colony, but on average foraged relatively close to South Island (13.6 ± 0.3km, mean ± 1 SD). Individuals tended to forage in the same locations, but there was variation among individuals. Flying to foraging sites uses energy during the already energetically costly breeding season, thus managers should prioritize placing a new colony site in a location that minimizes the distance traveled to the foraging locations frequented by the South Island birds while accounting for other life-history characteristics. These findings could help in the design and construction of new breeding sites or the restoration of current sites for other, related species, particularly for which these data do not exist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The practical application of new single molecule protein sequencing (SMPS) technologies requires accurate estimates of their associated sequencing error rates. Here, we describe the development and application of two distinct parameter estimation methods for analyzing SMPS reads produced by fluorosequencing. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based approach, extends whatprot, where we previously used HMMs for SMPS peptide-read matching. This extension offers a principled approach for estimating key parameters for fluorosequencing experiments, including missed amino acid cleavages, dye loss, and peptide detachment. Specifically, we adapted the Baum-Welch algorithm, a standard technique to estimate transition probabilities for an HMM using expectation maximization, but modified here to estimate a small number of parameter values directly rather than estimating every transition probability independently. We demonstrate a high degree of accuracy on simulated data, but on experimental datasets, we observed that the model needed to be augmented with an additional error type, N-terminal blocking. This, in combination with data pre-processing, results in reasonable parameterizations of experimental datasets that agree with controlled experimental perturbations. A second independent implementation using a hybrid of DIRECT and Powell's method to reduce the root mean squared error (RMSE) between simulations and the real dataset was also developed. We compare these methods on both simulated and real data, finding that our Baum-Welch based approach outperforms DIRECT and Powell's method by most, but not all, criteria. Although some discrepancies between the results exist, we also find that both approaches provide similar error rate estimates from experimental single molecule fluorosequencing datasets. Author summary: Diverse new technologies are being developed for single-molecule protein sequencing, capable of identifying and quantifying mixtures of proteins at the level of individual molecules. There are many biochemical challenges intrinsic to high-throughput studies of proteins at such high sensitivity arising from their heterogeneous chemistries, sizes, and abundances. Beyond these challenges, the technologies themselves involve complex multi-step analytical processes. Thus, in developing and optimizing these technologies, it is important to consider the accuracy of each step and to have reliable approaches for estimating these accuracies. We focus on one particular single-molecule sequencing technology known as flourosequencing. We report and validate two methods for simultaneously determining the error-rates of each of the various steps of the fluorosequencing process. These new error estimation techniques will help researchers to better interpret the effects of changes to the chemistry and sample preparation used in fluorosequencing so that these steps can be improved. Further, more accurate determination of error rates will aid in the creation of better tools for the interpretation of this data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the spatial arrangement of trees planted along streets in cities makes their bases potential ecological corridors for the flora, urban tree bases may be a key contributor to the overall connectivity of the urban ecosystem. However, these tree bases are also a highly fragmented environment in which extinctions are frequent. The goal of this study was to assess the plant species' ability to survive and spread through urban tree bases. To do so, we developed a Bayesian framework to assess the extinction risk of a plant metapopulation using presence/absence data, assuming that the occupancy dynamics was described by a Hidden Markov Model. The novelty of our approach is to take into account the combined effect of low-distance dispersal and the potential presence of a seed bank on the extinction risk. We introduced a metric of the extinction risk and examined its performance over a wide range of metapopulation parameters. We applied our framework to yearly floristic inventories carried out in 1324 tree bases in Paris, France. While local extinction risks were generally high, extinction risks at the street scale varied greatly from one species to another. We identified 10 plant species that could survive and spread through urban tree bases, and three plant traits correlated with the extinction risk at the metapopulation scale: the maximal height, and the beginning and end of the flowering period. Our results suggest that some plant species can use urban tree bases as ecological corridors despite high local extinction risks by forming a seed bank. We also identified other plant traits correlated with the ability to survive in tree bases, related to the action of gardeners. Moreover, our findings demonstrate that our Bayesian estimation framework based on percolation theory has the potential to be extended to more general metapopulations. Author summary: Understanding how biodiversity is maintained in a urban environment is an important question in ecology. In this article, we investigated to what extent tree bases along streets contribute to maintaining biodiversity in cities by acting as ecological corridors between larger urban green spaces. To do so, we introduced a new estimation framework to assess whether a plant species can survive and spread through urban tree bases, given presence/absence data (such as floristic inventories). The novelty of our approach is to combine two factors previously identified as particularly relevant in a urban environment: selection against dispersion, and the potential presence of a seed bank of dormant seeds in the soil. We applied our estimation framework to a dataset of yearly floristic inventories carried out in 1324 tree bases in Paris, France. We identified several plant traits making it possible to use urban tree bases as ecological corridors. Our study sheds light on how urban tree bases are integrated into the urban ecosystem. Our findings can be used to design improved management strategies for urban tree bases, that will contribute to biodiversity preservation in urban environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamic functional connectivity investigates how the interactions among brain regions vary over the course of an fMRI experiment. Such transitions between different individual connectivity states can be modulated by changes in underlying physiological mechanisms that drive functional network dynamics, e.g., changes in attention or cognitive effort. In this paper, we develop a multi-subject Bayesian framework where the estimation of dynamic functional networks is informed by time-varying exogenous physiological covariates that are simultaneously recorded in each subject during the fMRI experiment. More specifically, we consider a dynamic Gaussian graphical model approach where a non-homogeneous hidden Markov model is employed to classify the fMRI time series into latent neurological states. We assume the state-transition probabilities to vary over time and across subjects as a function of the underlying covariates, allowing for the estimation of recurrent connectivity patterns and the sharing of networks among the subjects. We further assume sparsity in the network structures via shrinkage priors, and achieve edge selection in the estimated graph structures by introducing a multi-comparison procedure for shrinkage-based inferences with Bayesian false discovery rate control. We evaluate the performances of our method vs alternative approaches on synthetic data. We apply our modeling framework on a resting-state experiment where fMRI data have been collected concurrently with pupillometry measurements, as a proxy of cognitive processing, and assess the heterogeneity of the effects of changes in pupil dilation on the subjects' propensity to change connectivity states. The heterogeneity of state occupancy across subjects provides an understanding of the relationship between increased pupil dilation and transitions toward different cognitive states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measuring breathing rates is a means by which oxygen intake and metabolic rates can be estimated to determine food requirements and energy expenditure of killer whales (Orcinus orca) and other cetaceans. This relatively simple measure also allows the energetic consequences of environmental stressors to cetaceans to be understood but requires knowing respiration rates while they are engaged in different behaviours such as resting, travelling and foraging. We calculated respiration rates for different behavioural states of southern and northern resident killer whales using video from UAV drones and concurrent biologging data from animal-borne tags. Behavioural states of dive tracks were predicted using hierarchical hidden Markov models (HHMM) parameterized with time-depth data and with labeled tracks of drone-identified behavioural states (from drone footage that overlapped with the time-depth data). Dive tracks were sequences of dives and surface intervals lasting ≥ 10 minutes cumulative duration. We calculated respiration rates and estimated oxygen consumption rates for the predicted behavioural states of the tracks. We found that juvenile killer whales breathed at a higher rate when travelling (1.6 breaths min-1) compared to resting (1.2) and foraging (1.5)—and that adult males breathed at a higher rate when travelling (1.8) compared to both foraging (1.7) and resting (1.3). The juveniles in our study were estimated to consume 2.5–18.3 L O2 min-1 compared with 14.3–59.8 L O2 min-1 for adult males across all behaviours based on estimates of mass-specific tidal volume and oxygen extraction. Our findings confirm that killer whales take single breaths between dives and indicate that energy expenditure derived from respirations requires using sex, age, and behavioural-specific respiration rates. These findings can be applied to bioenergetics models on a behavioural-specific basis, and contribute towards obtaining better predictions of dive behaviours, energy expenditure and the food requirements of apex predators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid growth of traffic trajectory data and the development of positioning technology have driven the demand for its analysis. However, in the current application scenarios, there are some problems such as the deviation between positioning data and real roads and low accuracy of existing trajectory data traffic prediction models. Therefore, a map matching algorithm based on hidden Markov models is proposed in this study. The algorithm starts from the global route, selects K nearest candidate paths, and identifies candidate points through the candidate paths. It uses changes in speed, angle, and other information to generate a state transition matrix that match trajectory points to the actual route. When processing trajectory data in the experiment, K = 5 is selected as the optimal value, the algorithm takes 51 ms and the accuracy is 95.3%. The algorithm performed well in a variety of road conditions, especially in parallel and mixed road sections, with an accuracy rate of more than 96%. Although the time loss of this algorithm is slightly increased compared with the traditional algorithm, its accuracy is stable. Under different road conditions, the accuracy of the algorithm is 98.3%, 97.5%, 94.8% and 96%, respectively. The accuracy of the algorithm based on traditional hidden Markov models is 95.9%, 95.7%, 95.4% and 94.6%, respectively. It can be seen that the accuracy of the algorithm designed has higher precision. The experiment proves that the map matching algorithms based on hidden Markov models is superior to other algorithms in terms of matching accuracy. This study makes the processing of traffic trajectory data more accurate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genome-wide genealogies of multiple species carry detailed information about demographic and selection processes on individual branches of the phylogeny. Here, we introduce TRAILS, a hidden Markov model that accurately infers time-resolved population genetics parameters, such as ancestral effective population sizes and speciation times, for ancestral branches using a multi-species alignment of three species and an outgroup. TRAILS leverages the information contained in incomplete lineage sorting fragments by modelling genealogies along the genome as rooted three-leaved trees, each with a topology and two coalescent events happening in discretized time intervals within the phylogeny. Posterior decoding of the hidden Markov model can be used to infer the ancestral recombination graph for the alignment and details on demographic changes within a branch. Since TRAILS performs posterior decoding at the base-pair level, genome-wide scans based on the posterior probabilities can be devised to detect deviations from neutrality. Using TRAILS on a human-chimp-gorilla-orangutan alignment, we recover speciation parameters and extract information about the topology and coalescent times at high resolution. Author summary: DNA sequences can be compared to reconstruct the evolutionary history of different species. While the ancestral history is usually represented by a single phylogenetic tree, speciation is a more complex process, and, due to the effect of recombination, different parts of the genome might follow different genealogies. For example, even though humans are more closely related to chimps than to gorillas, around 15% of our genome is more similar to the gorilla genome than to the chimp one. Even for those parts of the genome that do follow the same human-chimp topology, we might encounter a last common ancestor at different time points in the past for different genomic fragments. Here, we present TRAILS, a new framework that utilizes the information contained in all these genealogies to reconstruct the speciation process. TRAILS infers unbiased estimates of the speciation times and the ancestral effective population sizes, improving the accuracy when compared to previous methods. TRAILS also reconstructs the genealogy at the highest resolution, inferring, for example, when common ancestry was found for different parts of the genome. This information can also be used to detect deviations from neutrality, effectively inferring natural selection that happened millions of years ago. We validate the method using extensive simulations, and we apply TRAILS to a human-chimp-gorilla multiple genome alignment, from where we recover speciation parameters that are in good agreement with previous estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brain signal irreversibility has been shown to be a promising approach to study neural dynamics. Nevertheless, the relation with cortical hierarchy and the influence of different electrophysiological features is not completely understood. In this study, we recorded local field potentials (LFPs) during spontaneous behavior, including awake and sleep periods, using custom micro-electrocorticographic (μECoG) arrays implanted in ferrets. In contrast to humans, ferrets remain less time in each state across the sleep-wake cycle. We deployed a diverse set of metrics in order to measure the levels of complexity of the different behavioral states. In particular, brain irreversibility, which is a signature of non-equilibrium dynamics, captured by the arrow of time of the signal, revealed the hierarchical organization of the ferret's cortex. We found different signatures of irreversibility and functional hierarchy of large-scale dynamics in three different brain states (active awake, quiet awake, and deep sleep), showing a lower level of irreversibility in the deep sleep stage, compared to the other. Irreversibility also allowed us to disentangle the influence of different cortical areas and frequency bands in this process, showing a predominance of the parietal cortex and the theta band. Furthermore, when inspecting the embedded dynamic through a Hidden Markov Model, the deep sleep stage was revealed to have a lower switching rate and lower entropy production. These results suggest functional hierarchies in organization that can be revealed through thermodynamic features and information theory metrics. Author summary: Understanding the brain functioning and the mechanisms underlying the transition between different brain states has been a key goal of modern clinical neuroscience. Global balance of the brain could be assessed by measuring spontaneous changes in brain dynamics. However, the subtlety of the effects demands advanced computational methods to extract the relevant dynamical information from neuroimaging recordings. To this aim, electrocorticographic measurements of ferrets provide a unique opportunity for inspecting these transitions in a long fluctuating recording. Our findings demonstrate the large, and still underexploited potential of several methods in the study of large-scale brain dynamics. We think that our approach can be fruitfully applied to a wide array of brain disorders, subserving both the theoretical goal of a clearer understanding of these diseases, and at the same time, the clinical goal of maximizing patients' classification, diagnosis, and prognosis. Finally, by providing detailed insight into the role different regions and states in global brain dynamics, our approach may inform external stimulation therapies that, combining with traditional behavioral therapies, may significantly accelerate recovery in different brain disorders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electrophysiological recordings from freely behaving animals are a widespread and powerful mode of investigation in sleep research. These recordings generate large amounts of data that require sleep stage annotation (polysomnography), in which the data is parcellated according to three vigilance states: awake, rapid eye movement (REM) sleep, and non-REM (NREM) sleep. Manual and current computational annotation methods ignore intermediate states because the classification features become ambiguous, even though intermediate states contain important information regarding vigilance state dynamics. To address this problem, we have developed "Somnotate"—a probabilistic classifier based on a combination of linear discriminant analysis (LDA) with a hidden Markov model (HMM). First we demonstrate that Somnotate sets new standards in polysomnography, exhibiting annotation accuracies that exceed human experts on mouse electrophysiological data, remarkable robustness to errors in the training data, compatibility with different recording configurations, and an ability to maintain high accuracy during experimental interventions. However, the key feature of Somnotate is that it quantifies and reports the certainty of its annotations. We leverage this feature to reveal that many intermediate vigilance states cluster around state transitions, whereas others correspond to failed attempts to transition. This enables us to show for the first time that the success rates of different types of transition are differentially affected by experimental manipulations and can explain previously observed sleep patterns. Somnotate is open-source and has the potential to both facilitate the study of sleep stage transitions and offer new insights into the mechanisms underlying sleep-wake dynamics. Author summary: Typically, the three different vigilance states–awake, REM sleep, and non-REM sleep–exhibit distinct features that are readily recognised in electrophysiological recordings. However, particularly around vigilance state transitions, epochs often exhibit features from more than one state. These intermediate vigilance states pose challenges for existing manual and automated classification methods, and are hence often ignored. Here, we present 'Somnotate'—an open-source, highly accurate and robust sleep stage classifier, which supports research into intermediate states and sleep stage dynamics in mice. Somnotate quantifies and reports the certainty of its annotations, enabling the experimenter to identify abnormal epochs in a principled manner. We use this feature to identify intermediate states and to detect unsuccessful attempts to switch between vigilance states. This has the potential to provide new insights into the mechanisms of vigilance state transitions, and creates new opportunities for future experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sign language (SL) has strong structural features. Various gestures and the complex trajectories of hand movements bring challenges to sign language recognition (SLR). Based on the inherent correlation between gesture and trajectory of SL action, SLR is organically divided into gesture-based recognition and gesture-related movement trajectory recognition. One hundred and twenty commonly used Chinese SL words involving 9 gestures and 8 movement trajectories, are selected as research and test objects. The method based on the amplitude state of surface electromyography (sEMG) signal and acceleration signal is used for vocabulary segmentation. The multi-sensor decision fusion method of coupled hidden Markov model is used to complete the recognition of SL vocabulary, and the average recognition rate is 90.41%. Experiments show that the method of sEMG signal and motion information fusion has good practicability in SLR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Next-generation single-molecule protein sequencing technologies have the potential to significantly accelerate biomedical research. These technologies offer sensitivity and scalability for proteomic analysis. One auspicious method is fluorosequencing, which involves: cutting naturalized proteins into peptides, attaching fluorophores to specific amino acids, and observing variations in light intensity as one amino acid is removed at a time. The original peptide is classified from the sequence of light-intensity reads, and proteins can subsequently be recognized with this information. The amino acid step removal is achieved by attaching the peptides to a wall on the C-terminal and using a process called Edman Degradation to remove an amino acid from the N-Terminal. Even though a framework (Whatprot) has been proposed for the peptide classification task, processing times remain restrictive due to the massively parallel data acquisicion system. In this paper, we propose a new beam search decoder with a novel state formulation that obtains considerably lower processing times at the expense of only a slight accuracy drop compared to Whatprot. Furthermore, we explore how our novel state formulation may lead to even faster decoders in the future. Author summary: Proteomic analyses frequently rely on mass spectrometry, a method characterized by its limited dynamic range, potentially overlooking low-abundant proteins. To address this limitation, single-molecule protein sequencing methods offer a solution. Fluorosequencing is a cutting-edge single-molecule protein sequencing method, which can distinguish peptides or protein molecules massively parallelly. This method has attracted interest from investors, as evidenced by the recent funding of Erisyon, a company developing this technology. This technique contains a challenging classification task: determining the original peptide sequence from light-intensity observations obtained after several Edman cycles. A classifier based on a combination of k Nearest Neighbors (kNN) with Hidden Markov Models (HMM) had been shown to have close-to-optimal accuracy with tractable complexity. We propose in this paper a new algorithm that reduces computation time significantly at the expense of a slight reduction in accuracy compared to state-of-the-art method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compression as an accelerant of computation is increasingly recognized as an important component in engineering fast real-world machine learning methods for big data; c.f., its impact on genome-scale approximate string matching. Previous work showed that compression can accelerate algorithms for Hidden Markov Models (HMM) with discrete observations, both for the classical frequentist HMM algorithms—Forward Filtering, Backward Smoothing and Viterbi—and Gibbs sampling for Bayesian HMM. For Bayesian HMM with continuous-valued observations, compression was shown to greatly accelerate computations for specific types of data. For instance, data from large-scale experiments interrogating structural genetic variation can be assumed to be piece-wise constant with noise, or, equivalently, data generated by HMM with dominant self-transition probabilities. Here we extend the compressive computation approach to the classical frequentist HMM algorithms on continuous-valued observations, providing the first compressive approach for this problem. In a large-scale simulation study, we demonstrate empirically that in many settings compressed HMM algorithms very clearly outperform the classical algorithms with no, or only an insignificant effect, on the computed probabilities and infered state paths of maximal likelihood. This provides an efficient approach to big data computations with HMM. An open-source implementation of the method is available from https://github.com/lucabello/wavelet-hmms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improvement of power amplifier's performance is the desired topic in communication systems. There are many efforts are made to provide good input and output matching, high efficiency, sufficient power gain and appropriate output power. This paper presents a power amplifier with optimized input and output matching networks. In the proposed approach, a new structure of the Hidden Markov Model with 20 hidden states is used for modeling the power amplifier. The widths and lengths of the microstrip lines in the input and output matching networks are defined as the parameters that the Hidden Markov Model should optimize. For validating our algorithm, a power amplifier has been realized based on a 10W GaN HEMT with part number CG2H40010F from the Cree corporation. Measurement results have shown a PAE higher than 50%, a Gain of about 14 dB, and input and output return losses lower than -10 dB over the frequency range of 1.8–2.5 GHz. The proposed PA can be used in wireless applications such as radar systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In survey sampling, the randomized response technique is a useful tool to collect reliable data in many fields including sociology, education, economics, and psychology etc. Over the past few decades, many variants of quantitative randomized response models have been developed by researchers. The existing literature on randomized response models lacks a neutral comparative study of different models to help the practitioners choose the appropriate model for a given practical problem. In most of the existing studies, the authors tend to show only the favorable results by hiding the cases where their suggested models are inferior to the existing models. This approach often leads to biased comparisons which may badly misguide the practitioners when choosing a randomized response model for a practical problem at hand. This paper attempts a neutral comparison of six existing quantitative randomized response models using separate as well as joint measures of respondent-privacy and model-efficiency. The findings suggest that one model may perform better than the other model in terms of efficiency but may perform worse when other metrics of model quality are taken into account. The current study guides practitioners in choosing the right model for a given problem under a particular situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the ease of gene sequencing and the technology available to study and manipulate non-model organisms, the extension of the methodological toolbox required to translate our understanding of model organisms to non-model organisms has become an urgent problem. For example, mining of large coral and their symbiont sequence data is a challenge, but also provides an opportunity for understanding functionality and evolution of these and other non-model organisms. Much more information than for any other eukaryotic species is available for humans, especially related to signal transduction and diseases. However, the coral cnidarian host and human have diverged over 700 million years ago and homologies between proteins in the two species are therefore often in the gray zone, or at least often undetectable with traditional BLAST searches. We introduce a two-stage approach to identifying putative coral homologues of human proteins. First, through remote homology detection using Hidden Markov Models, we identify candidate human homologues in the cnidarian genome. However, for many proteins, the human genome alone contains multiple family members with similar or even more divergence in sequence. In the second stage, therefore, we filter the remote homology results based on the functional and structural plausibility of each coral candidate, shortlisting the coral proteins likely to have conserved some of the functions of the human proteins. We demonstrate our approach with a pipeline for mapping membrane receptors in humans to membrane receptors in corals, with specific focus on the stony coral, P. damicornis. More than 1000 human membrane receptors mapped to 335 coral receptors, including 151 G protein coupled receptors (GPCRs). To validate specific sub-families, we chose opsin proteins, representative GPCRs that confer light sensitivity, and Toll-like receptors, representative non-GPCRs, which function in the immune response, and their ability to communicate with microorganisms. Through detailed structure-function analysis of their ligand-binding pockets and downstream signaling cascades, we selected those candidate remote homologues likely to carry out related functions in the corals. This pipeline may prove generally useful for other non-model organisms, such as to support the growing field of synthetic biology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-speed atomic force microscopy (HS-AFM) is a powerful technique for capturing the time-resolved behavior of biomolecules. However, structural information in HS-AFM images is limited to the surface geometry of a sample molecule. Inferring latent three-dimensional structures from the surface geometry is thus important for getting more insights into conformational dynamics of a target biomolecule. Existing methods for estimating the structures are based on the rigid-body fitting of candidate structures to each frame of HS-AFM images. Here, we extend the existing frame-by-frame rigid-body fitting analysis to multiple frames to exploit orientational correlations of a sample molecule between H frames in HS-AFM data due to the interaction with the stage. In the method, we treat HS-AFM data as time-series data, and they are analyzed with the hidden Markov modeling. Using simulated HS-AFM images of the taste receptor type 1 as a test case, the proposed method shows a more robust estimation of molecular orientations than the frame-by-frame analysis. The method is applicable in integrative modeling of conformational dynamics using HS-AFM data. Author summary: Biomolecules dynamically change their structures in cells and perform various functions that are important for life. It is difficult to observe such dynamic structural changes using conventional experimental techniques, such as X-ray crystallography, that mainly observe static atomic structures. Alternative approach is the atomic force microscopy (AFM), a technique to measure the surface geometry of a sample molecule by scanning with an acute tip. Recently, by increasing the imaging rate of the AFM, it has become possible to observe the dynamics of biomolecules at work. However, the information measured with AFM is limited to the surface geometry of a molecule, so it is important to extract three-dimensional structural information from those data. In this study, we developed a more robust method to estimate structural information from AFM data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whole-genome data has become significantly more accessible over the last two decades. This can largely be attributed to both reduced sequencing costs and imputation models which make it possible to obtain nearly whole-genome data from less expensive genotyping methods, such as microarray chips. Although there are many different approaches to imputation, the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) remains the most widely used. In this study, we compared the latest versions of the most popular HMM-based tools for phasing and imputation: Beagle5.4, Eagle2.4.1, Shapeit4, Impute5 and Minimac4. We benchmarked them on four input datasets with three levels of chip density. We assessed each imputation software on the basis of accuracy, speed and memory usage, and showed how the choice of imputation accuracy metric can result in different interpretations. The highest average concordance rate was achieved by Beagle5.4, followed by Impute5 and Minimac4, using a reference-based approach during phasing and the highest density chip. IQS and R2 metrics revealed that Impute5 and Minimac4 obtained better results for low frequency markers, while Beagle5.4 remained more accurate for common markers (MAF>5%). Computational load as measured by run time was lower for Beagle5.4 than Minimac4 and Impute5, while Minimac4 utilized the least memory of the imputation tools we compared. ShapeIT4, used the least memory of the phasing tools examined with genotype chip data, while Eagle2.4.1 used the least memory phasing WGS data. Finally, we determined the combination of phasing software, imputation software, and reference panel, best suited for different situations and analysis needs and created an automated pipeline that provides a way for users to create customized chips designed to optimize their imputation results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unraveling the complex demographic histories of natural populations is a central problem in population genetics. Understanding past demographic events is of general anthropological interest, but is also an important step in establishing accurate null models when identifying adaptive or disease-associated genetic variation. An important class of tools for inferring past population size changes from genomic sequence data are Coalescent Hidden Markov Models (CHMMs). These models make efficient use of the linkage information in population genomic datasets by using the local genealogies relating sampled individuals as latent states that evolve along the chromosome in an HMM framework. Extending these models to large sample sizes is challenging, since the number of possible latent states increases rapidly. Here, we present our method CHIMP (CHMM History-Inference Maximum-Likelihood Procedure), a novel CHMM method for inferring the size history of a population. It can be applied to large samples (hundreds of haplotypes) and only requires unphased genomes as input. The two implementations of CHIMP that we present here use either the height of the genealogical tree (TMRCA) or the total branch length, respectively, as the latent variable at each position in the genome. The requisite transition and emission probabilities are obtained by numerically solving certain systems of differential equations derived from the ancestral process with recombination. The parameters of the population size history are subsequently inferred using an Expectation-Maximization algorithm. In addition, we implement a composite likelihood scheme to allow the method to scale to large sample sizes. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of our method in a variety of benchmark tests using simulated data and present comparisons to other state-of-the-art methods. Specifically, our implementation using TMRCA as the latent variable shows comparable performance and provides accurate estimates of effective population sizes in intermediate and ancient times. Our method is agnostic to the phasing of the data, which makes it a promising alternative in scenarios where high quality data is not available, and has potential applications for pseudo-haploid data. Author summary: The demograpic history of natural populations shapes their genetic variation. The genomes of contemporary individuals can thus be used to unravel past migration events and population size changes, which is of anthropological interest. Moreover, it is also important to uncover these past events for studies investigating disease related genetic variation, since past demographic events can confound such analyses. Here we present a novel method for inferring the size history of a given population from full-genome sequencing data of contemporary individuals. Our method is based on a Coalescent Hidden Markov model framework, a model frequently applied to this type of inference. A key component of the model is the representation of unobserved local genealogical relationships among the sampled individuals as latent states. This is achieved by numerically solving certain differential equations that describe the distributions of these quantities and ultimately enables inference of past population size changes. Other methods performing similar inference rely on availability of high quality genomic data, whereas we demonstrate that our method can be applied in situations with limited data quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a Long Short Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network and Hidden Markov Model (LSTM-HMM) to predict China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fluctuation state within a rolling time window. We compare the predictive power of LSTM-HMM with other dynamic forecast systems within different time windows, which involves the Hidden Markov Model (HMM), Gaussian Mixture Model-Hidden Markov Model (GMM-HMM) and LSTM-HMM with an input of monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) or quarterly CPI within 4-year, 6-year, 8-year and 10-year time window. These forecasting models employed in our empirical analysis share the basic HMM structure but differ in the generation of observable CPI fluctuation states. Our forecasting results suggest that (1) among all the models, LSTM-HMM generally performs better than the other models; (2) the model performance can be improved when model input transforms from quarterly to monthly; (3) among all the time windows, models within 10-year time window have better overall performance; (4) within 10-year time window, the LSTM-HMM, with either quarterly or monthly input, has the best accuracy and consistency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Development of automated analysis tools for "single ion channel" recording is hampered by the lack of available training data. For machine learning based tools, very large training sets are necessary with sample-by-sample point labelled data (e.g., 1 sample point every 100microsecond). In an experimental context, such data are labelled with human supervision, and whilst this is feasible for simple experimental analysis, it is infeasible to generate the enormous datasets that would be necessary for a big data approach using hand crafting. In this work we aimed to develop methods to generate simulated ion channel data that is free from assumptions and prior knowledge of noise and underlying hidden Markov models. We successfully leverage generative adversarial networks (GANs) to build an end-to-end pipeline for generating an unlimited amount of labelled training data from a small, annotated ion channel "seed" record, and this needs no prior knowledge of theoretical dynamical ion channel properties. Our method utilises 2D CNNs to maintain the synchronised temporal relationship between the raw and idealised record. We demonstrate the applicability of the method with 5 different data sources and show authenticity with t-SNE and UMAP projection comparisons between real and synthetic data. The model would be easily extendable to other time series data requiring parallel labelling, such as labelled ECG signals or raw nanopore sequencing data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The early detection of infectious disease outbreaks is a crucial task to protect population health. To this end, public health surveillance systems have been established to systematically collect and analyse infectious disease data. A variety of statistical tools are available, which detect potential outbreaks as abberations from an expected endemic level using these data. Here, we present supervised hidden Markov models for disease outbreak detection, which use reported outbreaks that are routinely collected in the German infectious disease surveillance system and have not been leveraged so far. This allows to directly integrate labeled outbreak data in a statistical time series model for outbreak detection. We evaluate our model using real Salmonella and Campylobacter data, as well as simulations. The proposed supervised learning approach performs substantially better than unsupervised learning and on par with or better than a state-of-the-art approach, which is applied in multiple European countries including Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At-sea behaviour of seabirds have received significant attention in ecology over the last decades as it is a key process in the ecology and fate of these populations. It is also, through the position of top predator that these species often occupy, a relevant and integrative indicator of the dynamics of the marine ecosystems they rely on. Seabird trajectories are recorded through the deployment of GPS, and a variety of statistical approaches have been tested to infer probable behaviours from these location data. Recently, deep learning tools have shown promising results for the segmentation and classification of animal behaviour from trajectory data. Yet, these approaches have not been widely used and investigation is still needed to identify optimal network architecture and to demonstrate their generalization properties. From a database of about 300 foraging trajectories derived from GPS data deployed simultaneously with pressure sensors for the identification of dives, this work has benchmarked deep neural network architectures trained in a supervised manner for the prediction of dives from trajectory data. It first confirms that deep learning allows better dive prediction than usual methods such as Hidden Markov Models. It also demonstrates the generalization properties of the trained networks for inferring dives distribution for seabirds from other colonies and ecosystems. In particular, convolutional networks trained on Peruvian boobies from a specific colony show great ability to predict dives of boobies from other colonies and from distinct ecosystems. We further investigate accross-species generalization using a transfer learning strategy known as 'fine-tuning'. Starting from a convolutional network pre-trained on Guanay cormorant data reduced by two the size of the dataset needed to accurately predict dives in a tropical booby from Brazil. We believe that the networks trained in this study will provide relevant starting point for future fine-tuning works for seabird trajectory segmentation. Author summary: Over the last decades, the use of miniaturized electronic devices enabled the tracking of many wide-ranging animal species. The deployment of GPS has notably informed on migratory, habitat and foraging strategies of numerous seabird species. A key challenge in movement ecology is to identify specific behavioural patterns (e.g. travelling, resting, foraging) through the observed movement data. In this work, we address the inference of seabird diving behaviour from GPS data using deep learning methods. We demonstrate the performance of deep networks to accurately identify movement patterns from GPS data over state-of-the-art tools, and we illustrate their great accross-species generalization properties (i.e. the ability to generalize prediction from one seabird species to aother). Our results further supports the relevance of deep learning schemes as 'ready-to-use' tools which could be used by ecologists to segmentate animal trajectories on new (small) datasets, including when these datasets do not include groundtruthed labelled data for a supervised training. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Is it possible to learn and create a first Hidden Markov Model (HMM) without programming skills or understanding the algorithms in detail? In this concise tutorial, we present the HMM through the 2 general questions it was initially developed to answer and describe its elements. The HMM elements include variables, hidden and observed parameters, the vector of initial probabilities, and the transition and emission probability matrices. Then, we suggest a set of ordered steps, for modeling the variables and illustrate them with a simple exercise of modeling and predicting transmembrane segments in a protein sequence. Finally, we show how to interpret the results of the algorithms for this particular problem. To guide the process of information input and explicit solution of the basic HMM algorithms that answer the HMM questions posed, we developed an educational webserver called HMMTeacher. Additional solved HMM modeling exercises can be found in the user's manual and answers to frequently asked questions. HMMTeacher is available at https://hmmteacher.mobilomics.org, mirrored at https://hmmteacher1.mobilomics.org. A repository with the code of the tool and the webpage is available at https://gitlab.com/kmilo.f/hmmteacher. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected adults are at a higher risk of pneumococcal colonisation and disease, even while receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). To help evaluate potential indirect effects of vaccination of HIV-infected adults, we assessed whether HIV-infected adults disproportionately contribute to household transmission of pneumococci. We constructed a hidden Markov model to capture the dynamics of pneumococcal carriage acquisition and clearance observed during a longitudinal household-based nasopharyngeal swabbing study, while accounting for sample misclassifications. Households were followed-up twice weekly for approximately 10 months each year during a three-year study period for nasopharyngeal carriage detection via real-time PCR. We estimated the effect of participant's age, HIV status, presence of a HIV-infected adult within the household and other covariates on pneumococcal acquisition and clearance probabilities. Of 1,684 individuals enrolled, 279 (16.6%) were younger children (<5 years-old) of whom 4 (1.5%) were HIV-infected and 726 (43.1%) were adults (≥18 years-old) of whom 214 (30.4%) were HIV-infected, most (173, 81.2%) with high CD4+ count. The observed range of pneumococcal carriage prevalence across visits was substantially higher in younger children (56.9–80.5%) than older children (5–17 years-old) (31.7–50.0%) or adults (11.5–23.5%). We estimate that 14.4% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 13.7–15.0) of pneumococcal-negative swabs were false negatives. Daily carriage acquisition probabilities among HIV-uninfected younger children were similar in households with and without HIV-infected adults (hazard ratio: 0.95, 95%CI: 0.91–1.01). Longer average carriage duration (11.4 days, 95%CI: 10.2–12.8 vs 6.0 days, 95%CI: 5.6–6.3) and higher median carriage density (622 genome equivalents per millilitre, 95%CI: 507–714 vs 389, 95%CI: 311.1–435.5) were estimated in HIV-infected vs HIV-uninfected adults. The use of ART and antibiotics substantially reduced carriage duration in all age groups, and acquisition rates increased with household size. Although South African HIV-infected adults on ART have longer carriage duration and density than their HIV-uninfected counterparts, they show similar patterns of pneumococcal acquisition and onward transmission. Author summary: We assessed the contribution of HIV-infected adults to household pneumococcal transmission by applying a hidden Markov model to pneumococcal cohort data comprising 115,595 nasopharyngeal samples from 1,684 individuals in rural and urban settings in South Africa. We estimated 14.4% of sample misclassifications (false negatives), representing 85.6% sensitivity of a test that was used to detect pneumococcus. Pneumococcal carriage prevalence and acquisition rates, and average duration were usually higher in younger or older children than adults. The use of ART and antibiotics reduced the average carriage duration across all age and HIV groups, and carriage acquisition risks increased in larger household sizes. Despite the longer average carriage duration and higher median carriage density in HIV-infected than HIV-uninfected adults, we found similar carriage acquisition and onward transmission risks in the dual groups. These findings suggest that vaccinating HIV-infected adults on ART with PCV would reduce their risk for pneumococcal disease but may add little to the indirect protection against carriage of the rest of the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antimicrobial resistance is one of the major threats to Public Health worldwide. Understanding the transfer and maintenance of antimicrobial resistance genes mediated by mobile genetic elements is thus urgent. In this work, we focus on the ColE1-like plasmid family, whose distinctive replication and multicopy nature has given rise to key discoveries and tools in molecular biology. Despite being massively used, the hosts, functions, and evolutionary history of these plasmids remain poorly known. Here, we built specific Hidden Markov Model(HMM) profiles to search ColE1 replicons within genomes. We identified 1,035 ColE1 plasmids in five Orders of γ-Proteobacteria, several of which are described here for the first time. The phylogenetic analysis of these replicons and their characteristic MOBP5/HEN relaxases suggest that ColE1 plasmids have diverged apart, with little transfer across orders, but frequent transfer across families. Additionally, ColE1 plasmids show a functional shift over the last decades, losing their characteristic bacteriocin production while gaining several antimicrobial resistance genes, mainly enzymatic determinants and including several extended-spectrum betalactamases and carbapenemases. Furthermore, ColE1 plasmids facilitate the intragenomic mobilization of these determinants, as various replicons were identified co-integrated with large non-ColE1 plasmids, mostly via transposases. These results illustrate how families of plasmids evolve and adapt their gene repertoires to bacterial adaptive requirements. Author summary: The extraordinary adaptability of bacteria and the massive prevalence of mobile genetic elements within populations has turned antimicrobial resistance into a growing threat to Public Health. Among all the mobile genetic elements, plasmids have been the focus of attention as these extrachromosomal molecules of DNA are able to mobilize several antimicrobial resistance genes at once through conjugation. However, although small mobilizable and non-conjugative replicons have been traditionally overlooked when analyzing plasmid-mediated antimicrobial resistance, they have recently been described as important carriers of AMR genes. In this work, we have analyzed the ColE1-like plasmid family, whose study has been neglected even if they are one of the main groups of small plasmids in natural populations of Proteobacteria. We observed that these plasmids have evolved for a long time within γ-Proteobacteria acquiring different genetic features in specific hosts, being major players in the spread of antimicrobial resistance determinants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During aging of human skin, a number of intrinsic and extrinsic factors cause the alteration of the skin's structure, function and cutaneous physiology. Many studies have investigated the influence of the skin microbiome on these alterations, but the molecular mechanisms that dictate the interplay between these factors and the skin microbiome are still not fully understood. To obtain more insight into the connection between the skin microbiome and the human physiological processes involved in skin aging, we performed a systematic study on interconnected pathways of human and bacterial metabolic processes that are known to play a role in skin aging. The bacterial genes in these pathways were subsequently used to create Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), which were applied to screen for presence of defined functionalities in both genomic and metagenomic datasets of skin-associated bacteria. These models were further applied on 16S rRNA gene sequencing data from skin microbiota samples derived from female volunteers of two different age groups (25–28 years ('young') and 59–68 years ('old')). The results show that the main bacterial pathways associated with aging skin are those involved in the production of pigmentation intermediates, fatty acids and ceramides. This study furthermore provides evidence for a relation between skin aging and bacterial enzymes involved in protein glycation. Taken together, the results and insights described in this paper provide new leads for intervening with bacterial processes that are associated with aging of human skin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale genomic alterations play an important role in disease, gene expression, and chromosome evolution. Optical DNA mapping (ODM), commonly categorized into sparsely-labelled ODM and densely-labelled ODM, provides sequence-specific continuous intensity profiles (DNA barcodes) along single DNA molecules and is a technique well-suited for detecting such alterations. For sparsely-labelled barcodes, the possibility to detect large genomic alterations has been investigated extensively, while densely-labelled barcodes have not received as much attention. In this work, we introduce HMMSV, a hidden Markov model (HMM) based algorithm for detecting structural variations (SVs) directly in densely-labelled barcodes without access to sequence information. We evaluate our approach using simulated data-sets with 5 different types of SVs, and combinations thereof, and demonstrate that the method reaches a true positive rate greater than 80% for randomly generated barcodes with single variations of size 25 kilobases (kb). Increasing the length of the SV further leads to larger true positive rates. For a real data-set with experimental barcodes on bacterial plasmids, we successfully detect matching barcode pairs and SVs without any particular assumption of the types of SVs present. Instead, our method effectively goes through all possible combinations of SVs. Since ODM works on length scales typically not reachable with other techniques, our methodology is a promising tool for identifying arbitrary combinations of genomic alterations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peptide-based vaccines have demonstrated to be an important way to induce long-lived immune responses and, therefore, a promising strategy in the rational of vaccine development. As to malaria, among the classic vaccine targets, the Apical membrane antigen (AMA-1) was proven to have important B cell epitopes that can induce specific immune response and, hence, became key players for a vaccine approach. The peptides selection was carried out using a bioinformatic approach based on Hidden Markov Models profiles of known antigens and propensity scale methods based on hydrophilicity and secondary structure prediction. The antigenicity of the selected B-cell peptides was assessed by multiple serological assays using sera from acute P.vivax infected subjects. The synthetic peptides were recognized by 45.5%, 48.7% and 32.2% of infected subjects for peptides I, II and III respectively. Moreover, when synthetized together (tripeptide), the reactivity increases up to 62%, which is comparable to the reactivity found against the whole protein PvAMA-1 (57%). Furthermore, IgG reactivity against the tripeptide after depletion was reduced by 42%, indicating that these epitopes may be responsible for a considerable part of the protein immunogenicity. These results represent an excellent perspective regarding future chimeric vaccine constructions that may come to contemplate several targets with the potential to generate the robust and protective immune response that a vivax malaria vaccine needs to succeed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research has revealed that during continuous perception of movies or stories, humans display cortical activity patterns that reveal hierarchical segmentation of event structure. Thus, sensory areas like auditory cortex display high frequency segmentation related to the stimulus, while semantic areas like posterior middle cortex display a lower frequency segmentation related to transitions between events. These hierarchical levels of segmentation are associated with different time constants for processing. Likewise, when two groups of participants heard the same sentence in a narrative, preceded by different contexts, neural responses for the groups were initially different and then gradually aligned. The time constant for alignment followed the segmentation hierarchy: sensory cortices aligned most quickly, followed by mid-level regions, while some higher-order cortical regions took more than 10 seconds to align. These hierarchical segmentation phenomena can be considered in the context of processing related to comprehension. In a recently described model of discourse comprehension word meanings are modeled by a language model pre-trained on a billion word corpus. During discourse comprehension, word meanings are continuously integrated in a recurrent cortical network. The model demonstrates novel discourse and inference processing, in part because of two fundamental characteristics: real-world event semantics are represented in the word embeddings, and these are integrated in a reservoir network which has an inherent gradient of functional time constants due to the recurrent connections. Here we demonstrate how this model displays hierarchical narrative event segmentation properties beyond the embeddings alone, or their linear integration. The reservoir produces activation patterns that are segmented by a hidden Markov model (HMM) in a manner that is comparable to that of humans. Context construction displays a continuum of time constants across reservoir neuron subsets, while context forgetting has a fixed time constant across these subsets. Importantly, virtual areas formed by subgroups of reservoir neurons with faster time constants segmented with shorter events, while those with longer time constants preferred longer events. This neurocomputational recurrent neural network simulates narrative event processing as revealed by the fMRI event segmentation algorithm provides a novel explanation of the asymmetry in narrative forgetting and construction. The model extends the characterization of online integration processes in discourse to more extended narrative, and demonstrates how reservoir computing provides a useful model of cortical processing of narrative structure. Author summary: When we watch movies or listen to stories, our brains are led through a trajectory of activation whose structure reflects that of the event structure of the story. This takes place at multiple timescales across the brain, likely corresponding to different timescales of event representation. While this has been well described in human fMRI, the underlying computations that lead to these activation trajectories has not yet been fully characterized. The current research develops and explores a recurrent network "reservoir" model of cortical computation, whose natural internal dynamics help to provide an explanation of the trajectory of brain states that are observed in different cortical areas in humans. The model is exposed to narratives in the form of word embeddings for words in the narrative transcript. Neural activation in the model reveals event structure at multiple levels of temporal structure. This begins to provide insight into the computations underlying the event structure observed in the human brain during narrative processing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non-volatile memory technology is now available in commodity hardware. This technology can be used as a backup memory for an external dram cache memory without needing to modify the software. However, the higher read and write latencies of non-volatile memory may exacerbate the memory wall problem. In this work we present a novel off-chip prefetch technique based on a Hidden Markov Model that specifically deals with the latency problem caused by complexity of off-chip memory access patterns. Firstly, we present a thorough analysis of off-chip memory access patterns to identify its complexity in multicore processors. Based on this study, we propose a prefetching module located in the llc which uses two small tables, and where the computational complexity of which is linear with the number of computing threads. Our Markov-based technique is able to keep track and make clustering of several simultaneous groups of memory accesses coming from multiple simultaneous threads in a multicore processor. It can quickly identify complex address groups and trigger prefetch with very high accuracy. Our simulations show an improvement of up to 76% in the hit ratio of an off-chip dram cache for multicore architecture over the conventional prefetch technique (g/dc). Also, the overhead of prefetch requests (failed prefetches) is reduced by 48% in single core simulations and by 83% in multicore simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The B cells in our body generate protective antibodies by introducing somatic hypermutations (SHM) into the variable region of immunoglobulin genes (IgVs). The mutations are generated by activation induced deaminase (AID) that converts cytosine to uracil in single stranded DNA (ssDNA) generated during transcription. Attempts have been made to correlate SHM with ssDNA using bisulfite to chemically convert cytosines that are accessible in the intact chromatin of mutating B cells. These studies have been complicated by using different definitions of "bisulfite accessible regions" (BARs). Recently, deep-sequencing has provided much larger datasets of such regions but computational methods are needed to enable this analysis. Here we leveraged the deep-sequencing approach with unique molecular identifiers and developed a novel Hidden Markov Model based Bayesian Segmentation algorithm to characterize the ssDNA regions in the IGHV4-34 gene of the human Ramos B cell line. Combining hierarchical clustering and our new Bayesian model, we identified recurrent BARs in certain subregions of both top and bottom strands of this gene. Using this new system, the average size of BARs is about 15 bp. We also identified potential G-quadruplex DNA structures in this gene and found that the BARs co-locate with G-quadruplex structures in the opposite strand. Using various correlation analyses, there is not a direct site-to-site relationship between the bisulfite accessible ssDNA and all sites of SHM but most of the highly AID mutated sites are within 15 bp of a BAR. In summary, we developed a novel platform to study single stranded DNA in chromatin at a base pair resolution that reveals potential relationships among BARs, SHM and G-quadruplexes. This platform could be applied to genome wide studies in the future. Author summary: To make protective antibodies against various pathogens, the enzyme activation induced deaminase (AID) introduces mutations into single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) in the variable region of immunoglobulin genes (IGHVs) in B cells, as part of a process called somatic hypermutation (SHM). Here, a bisulfite assay, together with deep sequencing, was used to characterize the accessible ssDNA that represents the substrate of AID in B cells. To deal with issues such as noise in the data, we developed a novel algorithm to more accurately identify bisulfite accessible ssDNA regions (BARs) and applied it to the IGHV4–34 immunoglobulin gene in a human B cell line. Using the new algorithm, we found that location of these BARs recurred in certain subregions of the IGHV4–34 gene. The average size of the BARs is ∼15 bp, which is close to the size of a transcription bubble. We also found that some potential G-quadruplex DNA structures in the IGHV4–34 gene co-located with the BARs but on the opposite DNA strand. Furthermore, we found that, most of the AID induced mutations were near to, but not within, BARs suggesting alternative mechanisms for targeting somatic hypermutation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ketamine is an NMDA receptor antagonist commonly used to maintain general anesthesia. At anesthetic doses, ketamine causes high power gamma (25-50 Hz) oscillations alternating with slow-delta (0.1-4 Hz) oscillations. These dynamics are readily observed in local field potentials (LFPs) of non-human primates (NHPs) and electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings from human subjects. However, a detailed statistical analysis of these dynamics has not been reported. We characterize ketamine's neural dynamics using a hidden Markov model (HMM). The HMM observations are sequences of spectral power in seven canonical frequency bands between 0 to 50 Hz, where power is averaged within each band and scaled between 0 and 1. We model the observations as realizations of multivariate beta probability distributions that depend on a discrete-valued latent state process whose state transitions obey Markov dynamics. Using an expectation-maximization algorithm, we fit this beta-HMM to LFP recordings from 2 NHPs, and separately, to EEG recordings from 9 human subjects who received anesthetic doses of ketamine. Our beta-HMM framework provides a useful tool for experimental data analysis. Together, the estimated beta-HMM parameters and optimal state trajectory revealed an alternating pattern of states characterized primarily by gamma and slow-delta activities. The mean duration of the gamma activity was 2.2s([1.7,2.8]s) and 1.2s([0.9,1.5]s) for the two NHPs, and 2.5s([1.7,3.6]s) for the human subjects. The mean duration of the slow-delta activity was 1.6s([1.2,2.0]s) and 1.0s([0.8,1.2]s) for the two NHPs, and 1.8s([1.3,2.4]s) for the human subjects. Our characterizations of the alternating gamma slow-delta activities revealed five sub-states that show regular sequential transitions. These quantitative insights can inform the development of rhythm-generating neuronal circuit models that give mechanistic insights into this phenomenon and how ketamine produces altered states of arousal. 1 Author summary: Monitoring brain activity during anesthesia can provide insights into the underlying mechanisms of how anesthetics elicit altered states of consciousness. Ketamine, a commonly used anesthetic, is known to cause short duration bursts of high frequency electrophysiological activity in the brain, but the neural mechanisms underlying this activity are not well understood. A key limitation in developing accurate models of the underlying mechanism is a lack of detailed knowledge of the dynamic structure and spectral properties of ketamine-induced oscillations. In this work, we address this limitation by developing a statistical framework to quantify ketamine-induced neural activity. Our framework is based on a hidden Markov model, which assumes that the neural activity switches among discrete states, each of which has its own distinctive probabilistic spectral representation. By estimating this versatile statistical model from electrophysiology data, we generated detailed descriptions of the dynamic properties and oscillatory signatures associated with ketamine-induced neurophysiological states in non-human primates and in human patients. Furthermore, we identified additional ketamine-induced states that have not yet been reported. In summary, our detailed quantitative descriptions of ketamine-induced spectra can aid further developments of neurophysiological mechanistic models of ketamine as well as biomarker discovery for clinical anesthesia monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Economic Fitness Index describes industrial completeness and comprehensively reflects product diversification with competitiveness and product complexity in production globalization. The Fitness-Complexity Algorithm offers a scientific approach to predicting GDP and obtains fruitful results. As a recursion algorithm, the non-linear iteration processes give novel insights into product complexity and country fitness without noise data. However, the Country-Product Matrix and Revealed Comparative Advantage data have abnormal noises which contradict the relative stability of product diversity and the transformation of global production. The data noise entering the iteration algorithm, combined with positively related Fitness and Complexity, will be amplified in each recursion step. We introduce the Shortest Duration Constrained Hidden Markov Model (SDC-HMM) to denoise the Country-Product Matrix for the first time. After the country-product matrix test, the country case test, the noise estimation test and the panel regression test of national economic fitness indicators to predict GDP growth, we show that the SDC-HMM could reduce abnormal noise by about 25% and identify change points. This article provides intra-sample predictions that theoretically confirm that the SDC-HMM can improve the effectiveness of economic fitness indicators in interpreting economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important question in neuroscience is whether or not we can interpret spontaneous variations in the pattern of correlation between brain areas, which we refer to as functional connectivity or FC, as an index of dynamic neuronal communication in fMRI. That is, can we measure time-varying FC reliably? And, if so, can FC reflect information transfer between brain regions at relatively fast-time scales? Answering these questions in practice requires dealing with the statistical challenge of having high-dimensional data and a comparatively lower number of time points or volumes. A common strategy is to use PCA to reduce the dimensionality of the data, and then apply some model, such as the hidden Markov model (HMM) or a mixture model of Gaussian distributions, to find a set of distinct FC patterns or states. The distinct spatial properties of these FC states together with the time-resolved switching between them offer a flexible description of time-varying FC. In this work, I show that in this context PCA can suffer from systematic biases and loss of sensitivity for the purposes of finding time-varying FC. To get around these issues, I propose a novel variety of the HMM, named HMM-PCA, where the states are themselves PCA decompositions. Since PCA is based on the data covariance, the state-specific PCA decompositions reflect distinct patterns of FC. I show, theoretically and empirically, that fusing dimensionality reduction and time-varying FC estimation in one single step can avoid these problems and outperform alternative approaches, facilitating the quantification of transient communication in the brain. Author summary: I show that PCA, although widely used in practice, can introduce important biases and loss of sensitivity in the estimation of time-varying functional connectivity on high-dimensional fMRI data. I discuss these limitations and propose a new method that, by performing dimensionality reduction and time-varying functional connectivity estimation in one single step, can effectively overcome these limitations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaria remains a major public health problem in many countries. Unlike influenza and HIV, where diversity in immunodominant surface antigens is understood geographically to inform disease surveillance, relatively little is known about the global population structure of PfEMP1, the major variant surface antigen of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. The complexity of the var multigene family that encodes PfEMP1 and that diversifies by recombination, has so far precluded its use in malaria surveillance. Recent studies have demonstrated that cost-effective deep sequencing of the region of var genes encoding the PfEMP1 DBLα domain and subsequent classification of within host sequences at 96% identity to define unique DBLα types, can reveal structure and strain dynamics within countries. However, to date there has not been a comprehensive comparison of these DBLα types between countries. By leveraging a bioinformatic approach (jumping hidden Markov model) designed specifically for the analysis of recombination within var genes and applying it to a dataset of DBLα types from 10 countries, we are able to describe population structure of DBLα types at the global scale. The sensitivity of the approach allows for the comparison of the global dataset to ape samples of Plasmodium Laverania species. Our analyses show that the evolution of the parasite population emerging out of Africa underlies current patterns of DBLα type diversity. Most importantly, we can distinguish geographic population structure within Africa between Gabon and Ghana in West Africa and Uganda in East Africa. Our evolutionary findings have translational implications in the context of globalization. Firstly, DBLα type diversity can provide a simple diagnostic framework for geographic surveillance of the rapidly evolving transmission dynamics of P. falciparum. It can also inform efforts to understand the presence or absence of global, regional and local population immunity to major surface antigen variants. Additionally, we identify a number of highly conserved DBLα types that are present globally that may be of biological significance and warrant further characterization. Author summary: Globalization has led to the spread of pathogens through increased human movement. Microbiologists track epidemics of these pathogens by cataloguing geographic diversity in the genes that encode for variant surface antigens (VSA). Here, we developed a computational approach to explore the evolution of specific DNA sequences of the major VSA gene of the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. First, we tested the method by comparing DNA sequences of these genes from P. falciparum to those of Plasmodium species that infect chimpanzees and gorillas. We showed that it could distinguish DNA signatures specific to each species. Next, we asked whether our method could detect geographic signatures within these genes by analyzing a global collection of P. falciparum isolates from 23 locations in 10 countries. The important outcome of our work was the ability to identify geographic signatures specific to countries and continents that were consistent with the "out of Africa" origin of P. falciparum. We can now identify malaria parasites from countries within Africa, South America, and Asia/Oceania using a diverse region of VSA genes without having to sequence and assemble whole parasite genomes. This methodology has potential applications in malaria surveillance to track parasites as they move around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant mitochondrial genomes have distinctive features compared to those of animals; namely, they are large and divergent, with sizes ranging from hundreds of thousands of to a few million bases. Recombination among repetitive regions is thought to produce similar structures that differ slightly, known as "multipartite structures," which contribute to different phenotypes. Although many reference plant mitochondrial genomes represent almost all the genes in mitochondria, the full spectrum of their structures remains largely unknown. The emergence of long-read sequencing technology is expected to yield this landscape; however, many studies aimed to assemble only one representative circular genome, because properly understanding multipartite structures using existing assemblers is not feasible. To elucidate multipartite structures, we leveraged the information in existing reference genomes and classified long reads according to their corresponding structures. We developed a method that exploits two classic algorithms, partial order alignment (POA) and the hidden Markov model (HMM) to construct a sensitive read classifier. This method enables us to represent a set of reads as a POA graph and analyze it using the HMM. We can then calculate the likelihood of a read occurring in a given cluster, resulting in an iterative clustering algorithm. For synthetic data, our proposed method reliably detected one variation site out of 9,000-bp synthetic long reads with a 15% sequencing-error rate and produced accurate clustering. It was also capable of clustering long reads from six very similar sequences containing only slight differences. For real data, we assembled putative multipartite structures of mitochondrial genomes of Arabidopsis thaliana from nine accessions sequenced using PacBio Sequel. The results indicated that there are recurrent and strain-specific structures in A. thaliana mitochondrial genomes. Author summary: Plant mitochondria have genes with important functions. For example, some mitochondrial genomes contain a gene responsible for cytoplasmic male sterility, a phenotype that is unable to create mature pollen. However, despite their small sizes, plant mitochondrial genomes can be difficult to assemble even if we use state-of-the-art long-read sequencers. The main obstacle is their high structural diversity and low sequence diversity, which hamper traditional methods to assemble plant mitochondrial genomes. Here, we introduce a new method for grouping long-reads to individual structures. For this purpose, we explored two traditional models in sequence analysis; hidden Markov model and partial order alignment, which enable us to detect a single base variation among several thousand bases and output accurate clusters while managing with observation errors associated with long-read sequencing. Applying this method to nine PacBio Sequel read datasets from Arabidopsis thaliana, we uncovered putative but unknown structures of plant mitochondrial genomes, suggesting that strain-specific structures are present in mitochondrial genomes, and that linear DNA fragments appear repeatedly in several strains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, hierarchies of probabilistic models are evaluated for their ability to characterize the untemplated addition of adenine and uracil to the 3' ends of mitochondrial mRNAs of the human pathogen Trypanosoma brucei, and for their generative abilities to reproduce populations of these untemplated adenine/uridine "tails". We determined the most ideal Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) for this biological system. While our HMMs were not able to generatively reproduce the length distribution of the tails, they fared better in reproducing nucleotide composition aspects of the tail populations. The HMMs robustly identified distinct states of nucleotide addition that correlate to experimentally verified tail nucleotide composition differences. However they also identified a surprising subclass of tails among the ND1 gene transcript populations that is unexpected given the current idea of sequential enzymatic action of untemplated tail addition in this system. Therefore, these models can not only be utilized to reflect biological states that we already know about, they can also identify hypotheses to be experimentally tested. Finally, our HMMs supplied a way to correct a portion of the sequencing errors present in our data. Importantly, these models constitute rare simple pedagogical examples of applied bioinformatic HMMs, due to their binary emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant species models are among the available tools to predict the future of ecosystems threatened by climate change, habitat loss, and degradation. However, they suffer from low to no inclusion of plant dispersal, which is necessary to predict ecosystem evolution. A variety of seed dispersal models have been conceived for anemochorous and zoochorous plant species, but the coupling between vegetation models and seed dispersal processes remains rare. The main challenge in modelling zoochoric dispersal is simulating animal movements in their complex habitat. Recent developments allow straightforward applications of hidden Markov modelling (HMM) to animal movements, which could ease generalizations when modelling zoochoric seed dispersal. We tested the use of HMM to model seed dispersal by an endangered primate in the Brazilian Atlantic forest, to demonstrate its potential simplicity to simulate seed dispersal processes. We also discuss how to adapt it to other species. We collected information on movement, fruit consumption, deposition, and habitat use of Leontopithecus chrysomelas. We analysed daily trajectories using HMM and built a deterministic Model Of Seed Transfer (MOST), which replicated, with good approximation, the primate's movement and seed deposition patterns as observed in the field. Our results suggest that the dispersal behaviour and short daily-trajectories of L. chrysomelas restrict the species' role in large-scale forest regeneration, but contribute to the prevalence of resource tree species locally, and potentially maintaining tree diversity by preventing local extinction. However, it may be possible to accurately simulate dispersal in an area, without necessarily quantifying variables that influence movement, if the movement can be broken down to step-length and turning angles, and parametrised along with the distribution of gut-transit times. For future objectives, coupling MOST with a DVM could be used to test hypotheses on tree species survival in various scenarios, simulating regeneration and growth at regional scales by including data on main dispersal agents over the area of interest, distribution of tree species, and land use data. The principal advantage of the MOST model is its functionality with data available from the literature as the variables are easy to parametrise. We suggest using the coupled model to perform experiments using only available information, but varying the numbers and species of seed dispersers, or modifying land cover or configuration to test for possible thresholds preventing the extinction of selected tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper introduces a new model used to study and analyse the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) epidemic-reported-data from Spain. This is a Hidden Markov Model whose hidden layer is a regeneration process with Poisson immigration, Po-INAR(1), together with a mechanism that allows the estimation of the under-reporting in non-stationary count time series. A novelty of the model is that the expectation of the unobserved process's innovations is a time-dependent function defined in such a way that information about the spread of an epidemic, as modelled through a Susceptible-Infectious-Removed dynamical system, is incorporated into the model. In addition, the parameter controlling the intensity of the under-reporting is also made to vary with time to adjust to possible seasonality or trend in the data. Maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate the parameters of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infectious disease management relies on accurate characterization of disease progression so that transmission can be prevented. Slowly progressing infectious diseases can be difficult to characterize because of a latency period between the time an individual is infected and when they show clinical signs of disease. The introduction of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP), the cause of Johne's disease, onto a dairy farm could be undetected by farmers for years before any animal shows clinical signs of disease. In this time period infected animals may shed thousands of colony forming units. Parameterizing trajectories through disease states from infection to clinical disease can help farmers to develop control programs based on targeting individual disease state, potentially reducing both transmission and production losses due to disease. We suspect that there are two distinct progression pathways; one where animals progress to a high-shedding disease state, and another where animals maintain a low-level of shedding without clinical disease. We fit continuous-time hidden Markov models to multi-year longitudinal fecal sampling data from three US dairy farms, and estimated model parameters using a modified Baum-Welch expectation maximization algorithm. Using posterior decoding, we observed two distinct shedding patterns: cows that had observations associated with a high-shedding disease state, and cows that did not. This model framework can be employed prospectively to determine which cows are likely to progress to clinical disease and may be applied to characterize disease progression of other slowly progressing infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electro–mechanical brakes (EMBs) are the future of braking systems, particularly in commercial vehicles. Therefore, it is important to design a simple EMB scheme and establish its clamping force control strategy to satisfy the demands of commercial vehicle braking systems. This study proposes a pneumatic disc–brake–based EMB for an electric bus. Its working principle was established, and the system model was analyzed. Subsequently, the hidden Markov models (HMMs) of driver decelerate and brake intentions were built and recognized based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Given the time–consuming behavior of the proposed EMB to eliminate brake clearance due to the leverage effect of the arm and motor performance limitation, a clamping force control strategy factoring in the driver intentions was developed to improve the response performance without changing the structure or size of the EMB. Furthermore, simulation analyses were performed using MATLAB/Simulink. The results confirmed that under the action of a step and 5 Hz triangular sawtooth signals, the clamping force output from the EMB corresponds well with the target signal. The clamping force gradually increases when approaching the target without overshoot and jitter during the process. The overall clamping force response time is decreased by approximately 0.25 s under the driver emergency brake than the conventional control method. Hence, the response performance of the EMB is improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

DNA-binding Transcription Factors (TFs) play a central role in regulation of gene expression in prokaryotic organisms, and similarities at the sequence level have been reported. These proteins are predicted with different abundances as a consequence of genome size, where small organisms contain a low proportion of TFs and large genomes contain a high proportion of TFs. In this work, we analyzed a collection of 668 experimentally validated TFs across 30 different species from diverse taxonomical classes, including Escherichia coli K-12, Bacillus subtilis 168, Corynebacterium glutamicum, and Streptomyces coelicolor, among others. This collection of TFs, together with 111 hidden Markov model profiles associated with DNA-binding TFs collected from diverse databases such as PFAM and DBD, was used to identify the repertoire of proteins putatively devoted to gene regulation in 1321 representative genomes of Archaea and Bacteria. The predicted regulatory proteins were posteriorly analyzed in terms of their genomic context, allowing the prediction of functions for TFs and their neighbor genes, such as genes involved in virulence, enzymatic functions, phosphorylation mechanisms, and antibiotic resistance. The functional analysis associated with PFAM groups showed diverse functional categories were significantly enriched in the collection of TFs and the proteins encoded by the neighbor genes, in particular, small-molecule binding and amino acid transmembrane transporter activities associated with the LysR family and proteins devoted to cellular aromatic compound metabolic processes or responses to drugs, stress, or abiotic stimuli in the MarR family. We consider that with the increasing data derived from new technologies, novel TFs can be identified and help improve the predictions for this class of proteins in complete genomes. The complete collection of experimentally characterized and predicted TFs is available at http://web.pcyt.unam.mx/EntrafDB/. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The human body generates a diverse set of high affinity antibodies, the soluble form of B cell receptors (BCRs), that bind to and neutralize invading pathogens. The natural development of BCRs must be understood in order to design vaccines for highly mutable pathogens such as influenza and HIV. BCR diversity is induced by naturally occurring combinatorial "V(D)J" rearrangement, mutation, and selection processes. Most current methods for BCR sequence analysis focus on separately modeling the above processes. Statistical phylogenetic methods are often used to model the mutational dynamics of BCR sequence data, but these techniques do not consider all the complexities associated with B cell diversification such as the V(D)J rearrangement process. In particular, standard phylogenetic approaches assume the DNA bases of the progenitor (or "naive") sequence arise independently and according to the same distribution, ignoring the complexities of V(D)J rearrangement. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to Bayesian phylogenetic inference for BCR sequences that is based on a phylogenetic hidden Markov model (phylo-HMM). This technique not only integrates a naive rearrangement model with a phylogenetic model for BCR sequence evolution but also naturally accounts for uncertainty in all unobserved variables, including the phylogenetic tree, via posterior distribution sampling. Author summary: Rational vaccine design efforts depend on accurate inference of full evolutionary paths from a given naive sequence to the corresponding mature B cell receptor sequences in a germinal center. Before one can perform ancestral sequence inference for clonal sequences that result from the same naive rearrangement event, one must first obtain an estimate of the clonal phylogenetic tree. Currently, standard phylogenetic inference techniques are used to model the process of sequence evolution along the tree; however, these methods do not account for all the complexities associated with this evolutionary process. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to phylogenetic inference for clonal sequences that is based on a phylogenetic hidden Markov model. Our phylo-HMM models both the naive rearrangement and somatic hypermutation processes and this Bayesian framework allows us to naturally account for uncertainty in all unobserved variables, including a phylogenetic tree, via posterior distribution sampling. We perform simulation-based experiments to show that naive sequence and phylogenetic inference performed jointly provides higher-quality estimates than those obtained by considering these inferences separately. Our application to real data reveals significant uncertainty in naive and ancestral sequences, confirming the importance of a Bayesian approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inference of admixture proportions is a classical statistical problem in population genetics. Standard methods implicitly assume that both parents of an individual have the same admixture fraction. However, this is rarely the case in real data. In this paper we show that the distribution of admixture tract lengths in a genome contains information about the admixture proportions of the ancestors of an individual. We develop a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework for estimating the admixture proportions of the immediate ancestors of an individual, i.e. a type of decomposition of an individual's admixture proportions into further subsets of ancestral proportions in the ancestors. Based on a genealogical model for admixture tracts, we develop an efficient algorithm for computing the sampling probability of the genome from a single individual, as a function of the admixture proportions of the ancestors of this individual. This allows us to perform probabilistic inference of admixture proportions of ancestors only using the genome of an extant individual. We perform extensive simulations to quantify the error in the estimation of ancestral admixture proportions under various conditions. To illustrate the utility of the method, we apply it to real genetic data. Author summary: Ancestry inference is an important problem in genetics and is used commercially by a number of companies affecting millions of consumers of genetic ancestry tests. In this paper, we show that it is possible, not only to estimate the ancestry fractions of an individual, but also, with some uncertainty, to estimate the ancestry fractions of an individual's recent ancestors. For example, if an individual traces his/her ancestry 50% to Asia and 50% to Europe, it is possible to distinguish between the individual having two parents that each are 50:50 composites of Asian and European ancestry, or one parent from Asia and one from Europe. It is likewise also possible to make inferences about grandparents. We present a computationally efficient method for making such inferences called PedMix. PedMix is based on a probabilistic model for the descendant and the recent ancestors. PedMix infers admixture proportions of recent ancestors (parents, grandparents or even great grandparents) using whole-genome genetic variation data from a focal individual. Results on both simulated and real data show that PedMix performs reasonably well in most scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiscale geometric analysis (MGA) is not only characterized by multi-resolution, time-frequency localization, multidirectionality and anisotropy, but also outdoes the limitations of wavelet transform in representing high-dimensional singular data such as edges and contours. Therefore, researchers have been exploring new MGA-based image compression standards rather than the JPEG2000 standard. However, due to the difference in terms of the data structure, redundancy and decorrelation between wavelet and MGA, as well as the complexity of the coding scheme, so far, no definitive researches have been reported on the MGA-based image coding schemes. In addressing this problem, this paper proposes an image data compression approach using the hidden Markov model (HMM)/pulse-coupled neural network (PCNN) model in the contourlet domain. First, a sparse decomposition of an image was performed using a contourlet transform to obtain the coefficients that show the multiscale and multidirectional characteristics. An HMM was then adopted to establish links between coefficients in neighboring subbands of different levels and directions. An Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm was also adopted in training the HMM in order to estimate the state probability matrix, which maintains the same structure of the contourlet decomposition coefficients. In addition, each state probability can be classified by the PCNN based on the state probability distribution. Experimental results show that the HMM/PCNN -contourlet model proposed in this paper leads to better compression performance and offer a more flexible encoding scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many developing countries, small-scale fisheries provide employment and important food security for local populations. To support resource management, the description of the spatiotemporal extent of fisheries is necessary, but often poorly understood due to the diffuse nature of effort, operated from numerous small wooden vessels. Here, in Gabon, Central Africa, we applied Hidden Markov Models to detect fishing patterns in seven different fisheries (with different gears) from GPS data. Models were compared to information collected by on-board observers (7 trips) and, at a larger scale, to a visual interpretation method (99 trips). Models utilizing different sampling resolutions of GPS acquisition were also tested. Model prediction accuracy was high with GPS data sampling rates up to three minutes apart. The minor loss of accuracy linked to model classification is largely compensated by the savings in time required for analysis, especially in a context of nations or organizations with limited resources. This method could be applied to larger datasets at a national or international scale to identify and more adequately manage fishing effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) is a fundamental cellular process and plays an essential role in development, tissue regeneration, and cancer metastasis. Interestingly, EMT is not a binary process but instead proceeds with multiple partial intermediate states. However, the functions of these intermediate states are not fully understood. Here, we focus on a general question about how the number of partial EMT states affects cell transformation. First, by fitting a hidden Markov model of EMT with experimental data, we propose a statistical mechanism for EMT in which many unobservable microstates may exist within one of the observable macrostates. Furthermore, we find that increasing the number of intermediate states can accelerate the EMT process and that adding parallel paths or transition layers may accelerate the process even further. Last, a stabilized intermediate state traps cells in one partial EMT state. This work advances our understanding of the dynamics and functions of EMT plasticity during cancer metastasis. Author summary: Epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) is a basic biological process, in which epithelial cells undergo multiple biochemical changes, lose cell-cell junctions and polarization, and become a mesenchymal phenotype with migratory and invasive properties. Recent studies have illustrated the existence and importance of the partial EMT states. It has become increasingly apparent that the EMT has strong differentiation plasticity. This plasticity is heavily implicated in cancer cell invasion and metastasis. However, it is still unclear how the number of intermediate states changes the EMT process. Here, we use a hidden Markov model to describe the EMT process. By fitting with the experimental data, we find that unobservable microstates exist within the observable macrostates: epithelial, partial EMT, and mesenchymal. Additionally, we find that increasing the number of states between the start and end of EMT or including alternative transition avenues via parallel paths or transition layers can accelerate the EMT process. This study suggests a non-trivial function of the EMT plasticity during cancer metastasis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methods for the analysis of time series single cell expression data (scRNA-Seq) either do not utilize information about transcription factors (TFs) and their targets or only study these as a post-processing step. Using such information can both, improve the accuracy of the reconstructed model and cell assignments, while at the same time provide information on how and when the process is regulated. We developed the Continuous-State Hidden Markov Models TF (CSHMM-TF) method which integrates probabilistic modeling of scRNA-Seq data with the ability to assign TFs to specific activation points in the model. TFs are assumed to influence the emission probabilities for cells assigned to later time points allowing us to identify not just the TFs controlling each path but also their order of activation. We tested CSHMM-TF on several mouse and human datasets. As we show, the method was able to identify known and novel TFs for all processes, assigned time of activation agrees with both expression information and prior knowledge and combinatorial predictions are supported by known interactions. We also show that CSHMM-TF improves upon prior methods that do not utilize TF-gene interaction. Author summary: An important attribute of time series single cell RNA-Seq (scRNA-Seq) data, is the ability to infer continuous trajectories of genes based on orderings of the cells. While several methods have been developed for ordering cells and inferring such trajectories, to date it was not possible to use these to infer the temporal activity of several key TFs. These TFs are are only post-transcriptionally regulated and so their expression does not provide complete information on their activity. To address this we developed the Continuous-State Hidden Markov Models TF (CSHMM-TF) methods that assigns continuous activation time to TFs based on both, their expression and the expression of their targets. Applying our method to several time series scRNA-Seq datasets we show that it correctly identifies the key regulators for the processes being studied. We analyze the temporal assignments for these TFs and show that they provide new insights about combinatorial regulation and the ordering of TF activation. We used several complementary sources to validate some of these predictions and discuss a number of other novel suggestions based on the method. As we show, the method is able to scale to large and noisy datasets and so is appropriate for several studies utilizing time series scRNA-Seq data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]