Search

As our capacity to collect and store health data is increasing, a new challenge of transforming data into meaningful information for disease monitoring and surveillance has arisen. The aim of this study was to explore the potential of using livestock mortality and antibiotic consumption data as a proxy for detecting disease outbreaks at herd level. Changes in the monthly records of mortality and antibiotic consumption were monitored in Danish swine herds that became positive for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) and porcine pleuropneumonia. Laboratory serological results were used to identify herds that changed from a negative to a positive status for the diseases. A dynamic linear model with a linear growth component was used to model the data. Alarms about state changes were raised based on forecast errors, changes in the growth component, and the values of the retrospectively smoothed values of the growth component. In all cases, the alarms were defined based on credible intervals and assessed prior and after herds got a positive disease status. The number of herds with alarms based on mortality increased by 3% in the 3 months prior to laboratory confirmation of PRRS-positive herds (Se = 0.47). A 22% rise in the number of weaner herds with alarms based on the consumption of antibiotics for respiratory diseases was found 1 month prior to these herds becoming PRRS-positive (Se = 0.22). For porcine pleuropneumonia-positive herds, a 10% increase in antibiotic consumption for respiratory diseases in sow herds was seen 1 month prior to a positive result (Se = 0.5). Monitoring changes in mortality data and antibiotic consumption showed changes at herd level prior to and in the same month as confirmation from diagnostic tests. These results also show a potential value for using these data streams as part of surveillance strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Neonatal mortality is a significant contributor to infant mortality. Causes and predictors of neonatal death are known to vary in different settings and across different contexts. This study aimed to assess predictors, causes, and trends of neonatal mortality amongst neonates admitted to Nekemte Referral Hospital neonatal unit between 2010–2014. Methods: Retrospective data was collected for 2090 live born neonates admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit of Nekemte Referral Hospital by reviewing records between 2010 to 2014. Variables were collected from the neonatal registration book and patient card on the predictors, causes, and trends of neonatal death using a standard checklist developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). Data was analyzed using Epi info version 3.5.1, and SPSS version 25 for windows. The level of significance was set at P<0.05 with the corresponding confidence intervals at 95%. A logistic regression model was used for analysis and to control for confounders. Microsoft Excel 2007 was used to construct the trend analysis. Results: There were 183 deaths in the cohort equivalent to 8.8% of deaths among total admitted neonates during the study period. Early neonatal deaths accounted for 8% and late neonatal deaths accounted for 0.71% of deaths among total admitted neonates. Main predictors identified for an increased risk of neonatal mortality were; neonates from rural residents [AOR 1.35, (95% CI, 1.35–1.87)], birth order of greater than five [AOR 5.10, (95% CI, 1.15–22.63)], home delivery [AOR 3.41, (95% CI, 2.24–5.19)], very low birth weight [AOR 6.75, (95% CI, 3.63–12.54)] and low birth weight [AOR 2.81, (95% CI, 1.95–4.05)] and inability to cry at birth [AOR 2.21, (95% CI, 1.51–3.22)]. The trend analysis showed a sharp fall for the neonatal mortality over the last five years with a mean reduction of 16%. Conclusions: Data from the Nekemte Referral Hospital Neonatal Intensive Care Unit analysis revealed majority of the deaths were occurred during early neonatal period. The main predictors of neonatal mortality identified from this study needs strengthening an appropriate public health intervention through addressing antenatal care, curbing home delivery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Despite increased treatment availability, HIV-infected individuals continue to start antiretroviral therapy (ART) late in disease progression, increasing early mortality risk. Materials and methods: Nested prospective cohort study within a randomized clinical trial of adult patients initiating ART at clinics in urban Nairobi and rural Maseno, Kenya, between 2013–2014. We estimated mortality incidence rates following ART initiation and used Cox proportional hazards regression to identify predictors of mortality within 12 months of ART initiation. Analyses were stratified by clinic site to examine differences in mortality correlates and risk by location. Results: Among 811 participants initiated on ART, the mortality incidence rate within a year of initiating ART was 7.44 per 100 person-years (95% CI 5.71, 9.69). Among 207 Maseno and 612 Nairobi participants initiated on ART, the mortality incidence rates (per 100 person-years) were 12.78 (95% CI 8.49, 19.23) and 5.72 (95% CI 4.05, 8.09). Maseno had a 2.20-fold greater risk of mortality than Nairobi (95% CI 1.29, 3.76; P = 0.004). This association remained [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 2.09 (95% CI 1.17, 3.74); P = 0.013] when adjusting for age, gender, education, pre-treatment drug resistance (PDR), and CD4 count, but not when adjusting for BMI. In unadjusted analyses, other predictors (P<0.05) of mortality included male gender (HR = 1.74), age (HR = 1.04 for 1-year increase), fewer years of education (HR = 0.92 for 1-year increase), unemployment (HR = 1.89), low body mass index (BMI<18.5 m/kg2; HR = 4.99), CD4 count <100 (HR = 11.67) and 100–199 (HR = 3.40) vs. 200–350 cells/μL, and pre-treatment drug resistance (PDR; HR = 2.49). The increased mortality risk associated with older age, males, and greater education remained when adjusted for location, age, education and PDR, but not when adjusted for BMI and CD4 count. PDR remained associated with increased mortality risk when adjusted for location, age, gender, education, and BMI, but not when adjusted for CD4 count. CD4 and BMI associations with increased mortality risk persisted in multivariable analyses. Despite similar baseline CD4 counts across locations, mortality risk associated with low CD4 count, low BMI, and PDR was greater in Maseno than Nairobi in stratified analyses. Conclusions: High short-term post-ART mortality was observed, partially due to low CD4 count and BMI at presentation, especially in the rural setting. Male gender, older age, and markers of lower socioeconomic status were also associated with greater mortality risk. Engaging patients earlier in HIV infection remains critical. PDR may influence short-term mortality and further studies to optimize management will be important in settings with increasing PDR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Patients with cirrhosis and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) present dilemma whether dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) should be used. Methods: Electronic medical records between 2001–2013 were retrieved from Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Patients were excluded for missing information, age <20 years old, history of AMI, liver transplant, autoimmune disease, coagulopathy, taking DAPT 3 months before index date, follow-up <3 months, anticoagulation user, without DAPT, and events of myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke, major bleeding, and heart failure within 3-month of enrollment. Primary outcomes were 1-year all-cause mortality, recurrent MI, major bleeding, and gastrointestinal bleeding. Results: A total of 150,887 patients with AMI retrieved. After exclusion criteria and propensity score-matching, 914 cirrhotic and 3,656 non-cirrhotic patients with AMI on DAPT were studied. During 1-year follow-up, there was significantly increased mortality in cirrhotic patients compared to non-cirrhotic patients (HR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.28–1.74). There was significantly decreased recurrent MI in cirrhotic patients compared to non-cirrhotic patients (subdistribution HR [SHR] = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.54–0.92). However, non-significantly increased major bleeding (SHR = 1.23, 95% CI = 0.87–1.73) and significantly increased gastrointestinal bleeding (SHR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.31–1.70). Conclusions: In cirrhotic patients with AMI, DAPT offers benefit with decreased recurrent MI at the expense of increased gastrointestinal bleeding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are one of the most common infections in older people and are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. UTIs are also associated with increased risk of antimicrobial resistance (AR). This study examined changes in AR among older inpatients with a primary diagnosis of UTIs in the United States over an 8-year period and the impact of AR on clinical outcomes and hospital costs. Data were obtained from the longitudinal hospital HCUP-NIS database from 2009 to 2016 for inpatient episodes that involved those aged 65+ years. The ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes were used to identify episodes with a primary diagnosis of UTIs, comorbidities, AR status and age-adjusted Deyo-Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) for the patient concerned. Weighted multivariable regression was used to examine the impact of AR on all-cause inpatient mortality, discharge destination, length of stay and hospital expenditures, adjusted for socio-demographic and clinical covariates. The proportion of admissions with AR increased, from 3.64% in 2009 to 6.88% in 2016 (p<0.001), with distinct patterns for different types of resistance. The likelihood of AR was higher in admissions with high ACCI scores and admissions to hospitals in urban areas. Admissions with AR were more likely to be discharged to healthcare facilities (e.g. care homes) compared to routine discharge (OR 1.81; 95%CI, 1.75–1.86), had increased length of stay (1.12 days; 95%CI, 1.06–1.18) and hospital costs (1259 USD; 95%CI, 1178–1340). Resistance due to MRSA was specifically associated with increased hospital mortality (OR 1.33; 95%CI, 1.15–1.53). Our findings suggest that the prevalence of AR has increased among older inpatients with UTIs in the USA. The study highlights the impact of AR among older inpatients with a primary diagnosis of UTIs on clinical outcomes and hospital costs. These relationships and their implications for the care homes to which patients are frequently discharged warrant further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Physical therapy can prevent functional impairments and improve the quality of life of patients after hospital discharge. However, the effect of early mobilization on patients with a critical illness remains unclear. This study was performed to assess the evidence available regarding the effect of early mobilization on critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods: Electronic databases were searched from their inception to March 21, 2019. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comprising critically ill patients who received early mobilization were included. The methodological quality and risk of bias of each eligible trial were assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration tool. Data were extracted using a standard collection form each included study, and processed using the Mantel-Haenszel (M-H) or inverse-variance (I-V) test in the STATA v12.0 statistical software. Results: A total of 1,898 records were screened. Twenty-three RCTs comprising 2,308 critically ill patients were ultimately included. Early mobilization decreased the incidence of ICU-acquired weakness (ICU-AW) at hospital discharge (three studies, 190 patients, relative risk (RR): 0.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.40, 0.90]; p = 0.013, I2 = 0.0%), increased the number of patients who were able to stand (one study, 50 patients, 90% vs. 62%, p = 0.02), increased the number of ventilator-free days (six studies, 745 patients, standardized mean difference (SMD): 0.17, 95% CI [0.02, 0.31]; p = 0.023, I2 = 35.5%) during hospitalization, increased the distance the patient was able to walk unassisted (one study, 104 patients, 33.4 (0–91.4) meters vs. 0 (0–30.4) meters, p = 0.004) at hospital discharge, and increased the discharged-to-home rate (seven studies, 793 patients, RR: 1.16, 95% CI [1.00, 1.34]; p = 0.046). The mortality (28-day, ICU and hospital) and adverse event rates were moderately increased by early mobilization, but the differences were statistically non-significant. However, due to the substantial heterogeneity among the included studies, and the low quality of the evidence, the results of this study should be interpreted with caution. Publication bias was not identified. Conclusions: Early mobilization appears to decrease the incidence of ICU-AW, improve the functional capacity, and increase the number of ventilator-free days and the discharged-to-home rate for patients with a critical illness in the ICU setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There was a pandemic of influenza A (H1N1) in 2009; in Korea, there was also an H1N1 epidemic in 2016. We aim to investigate whether survival had improved in the setting of recent advances in intensive care unit (ICU) management. We conducted a retrospective analysis of acute respiratory failure patients with H1N1 influenza pneumonia in 2016 and 2009 respectively at two tertiary referral hospitals in Korea. A total of 28 patients were treated in 2016, and 34 in 2009. There was no significant difference in SOFA scores on ICU admission day. In-hospital mortality was significantly lower in patients of 2016 compared to those of 2009 (18% vs. 44% P = 0.028). By multivariable analyses, the treatment year 2016 was associated with a greater likelihood of survival. Compared to the patients treated in 2009, those treated in 2016 were one seventh as likely to die after adjusting for other clinical variables (hazard ratio for mortality, 0.15; 95% confidence interval. 0.03–0.63, P = 0.010). Improved survival in patients who underwent extracorporeal membrane oxygenation treatment (in-hospital mortality, 17% vs. 60%, P = 0.242) and decreased tidal volumes during mechanical ventilation (median 5.4 mL/kg vs. median 9.2 mL/kg, P = 0.018) were observed in 2016 compared to 2009. Treatment outcomes for patients with H1N1 acute respiratory failure improved from 2009 to 2016 in two tertiary referral centers in South Korea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Data on engagement in HIV care from population-based samples in sub-Saharan Africa are limited. The objective of this study was to use double-sampling methods to estimate linkage to HIV care, ART initiation, and mortality among all adults diagnosed with HIV by a comprehensive home-based counseling and testing (HBCT) program in western Kenya. Methods: HBCT was conducted door-to-door from December 2009 to April 2011 in three sub-counties of western Kenya by AMPATH (Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare). For those identified as HIV-positive, data were merged with electronic medical records to determine engagement with HIV care. A randomly-drawn follow-up sample of 120 adults identified via HBCT who had not linked to care as of June 2015 in Bunyala sub-county were visited by trained fieldworkers to ascertain HIV care engagement and vital status. Double-sampled data were used to generate, via multinomial regression, predicted probabilities of engagement in care and mortality among those whose status could not be ascertained by matching with the electronic medical records in the three catchments. Results: Incorporating information from the double-sampling yielded estimates of prospective linkage to HIV care that ranged from 40–45%. Mortality estimates of those who did not engage in care following HBCT ranged from 12–16%. Among those who linked to care following HBCT, between 72–81% initiated ART. Discussion: In settings without universal national identifiers, rates of linkage to care from community-based programs may be subject to substantial underestimation. Follow-up samples of those with missing information can be used to partially correct this bias, as has been demonstrated previously for mortality among those who were lost-to-care programs. There is a need for harmonized data systems across health systems and programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, changes in urinary albumin and in GFR have been recognized as risk factors for the development of end-stage kidney disease and mortality. Though most clinical epidemiology studies of chronic kidney disease (CKD) used renal function and proteinuria at baseline alone, definitive diagnosis of CKD with multiple measurements intensifies the differences in the risk for mortality between the CKD and non-CKD populations. We hypothesized that a transient diagnosis of proteinuria and reduced renal function each indicate a significantly higher mortality compared to definitive non-CKD as the negative control and lower mortality compared with definitive CKD as the positive control. The present longitudinal study evaluated a general-population cohort of 338,094 persons who received annual health checkups, with a median 4.3-year study period. There were 2,481 deaths, including 510 CVD deaths (20.6%) and 1,328 cancer deaths (53.5%), and mortality risk was evaluated for transient proteinuria and for transiently reduced renal function. The hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality and cancer mortality were not significant, but that for cardiovascular mortality was significantly higher for transient proteinuria (HR, 1.94 [95% confidence interval, 1.27–2.96] in men and 2.78 [1.50–5.16] in women). On the other hand, transiently reduced renal function was not significant for either cardiovascular mortality risk or cancer mortality risk. We surmise that this is the first study of the mortality risk of transient dipstick proteinuria in a large general-population cohort with cause-specific death registration. Transiently positive proteinuria appears to be a significant risk specifically for cardiovascular mortality compared with definitely negative for proteinuria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: To stipulate a new definition for long-stay patients (LSPs) in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). We defined LSPs as the 10% of patients with the longest PICU length-of-stay (LOS) for each age and diagnostic group. To assess whether the thresholds (days of PICU stay) for the definition of LSPs in PICU significantly differ among diagnostic and age categories. To determine whether independent associations exist between patients’ characteristics at admission and LSPs diagnosis in pre-specified diagnostic and age groups. Methods: This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study including all PICUs in Switzerland. Multivariable regression analysis was used to seek for association between patients’ variables at admission and LSPs Results: We included 22,284 patients with a median (IQR) age of 12 (1–84) months. Significantly different thresholds across diagnostic and age subgroups are identified. Readmission to PICU, higher PIM2 and NEMS (a score used to quantify nursing workload at intensive care unit level) at admission were associated with higher likelihood of becoming LSPs. Conclusions: Our results showed a significantly different definitions of LSPs for specific diagnoses and age categories. Readmission to PICU and higher acuity at admission are associated with longer PICU length-of-stay in the majority of diagnostic groups. A more personalized definition of LSPs in children based on actual patients’ characteristics should probably be used in an effort to optimize care and reduce costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In September's Editorial, Vikram Patel and Pattie Gonsalves discuss suicide prevention, the focus of World Mental Health Day, 2019. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems play a key role in upholding human rights and generating data for health and good governance. They also can help monitor progress in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Although many countries have made substantial progress in strengthening their CRVS systems, most low- and middle-income countries still have underdeveloped systems. The objective of this systematic review is to identify national policies that can help countries strengthen their systems.Methods and Findings: The ABI/INFORM, Embase, JSTOR, PubMed, and WHO Index Medicus databases were systematically searched for policies to improve birth and/or death registration on 24 January 2017. Global stakeholders were also contacted for relevant grey literature. For the purposes of this review, policies were categorised as supply, demand, incentive, penalty, or combination (i.e., at least two of the preceding policy approaches). Quantitative results on changes in vital event registration rates were presented for individual comparative articles. Qualitative systematic review methodology, including meta-ethnography, was used for qualitative syntheses on operational considerations encompassing acceptability to recipients and staff, human resource requirements, information technology or infrastructure requirements, costs to the health system, unintended effects, facilitators, and barriers. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018085768. Thirty-five articles documenting experience in implementing policies to improve birth and/or death registration were identified. Although 25 countries representing all global regions (Africa, the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Western Pacific, Europe, and the Eastern Mediterranean) were reflected, there were limited countries from the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe regions. Twenty-four articles reported policy effects on birth and/or death registration. Twenty-one of the 24 articles found that the change in registration rate after the policy was positive, with two supply and one penalty articles being the exceptions. The qualitative syntheses identified 15 operational considerations across all policy categories. Human and financial resource requirements were not quantified. The primary limitation of this systematic review was the threat of publication bias wherein many countries may not have documented their experience; this threat is most concerning for policies that had neutral or negative effects.Conclusions: Our systematic review suggests that combination policy approaches, consisting of at least a supply and demand component, were consistently associated with improved registration rates in different geographical contexts. Operational considerations should be interpreted based on health system, governance, and sociocultural context. More evaluations and research are needed from the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe regions. Further research and evaluation are also needed to estimate the human and financial resource requirements required for different policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational studies have demonstrated that de-escalation of antimicrobial therapy is independently associated with lower mortality. This most probably results from confounding by indication. Reaching clinical stability is associated with the decision to de-escalate and with survival. However, studies rarely adjust for this confounder. We quantified the potential confounding effect of clinical stability on the estimated impact of de-escalation on mortality in patients with community-acquired pneumonia. Data were used from the Community-Acquired Pneumonia immunization Trial in Adults (CAPiTA). The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. We performed Cox proportional-hazards regression with de-escalation as time-dependent variable and adjusted for baseline characteristics using propensity scores. The potential impact of unmeasured confounding was quantified through simulating a variable representing clinical stability on day three, using data on prevalence and associations with mortality from the literature. Of 1,536 included patients, 257 (16.7%) were de-escalated, 123 (8.0%) were escalated and in 1156 (75.3%) the antibiotic spectrum remained unchanged. Crude 30-day mortality was 3.5% (9/257) and 10.9% (107/986) in the de-escalation and continuation groups, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio of de-escalation for 30-day mortality (compared to patients with unchanged coverage), without adjustment for clinical stability, was 0.39 (95%CI: 0.19–0.79). If 90% to 100% of de-escalated patients were clinically stable on day three, the fully adjusted hazard ratio would be 0.56 (95%CI: 0.27–1.12) to 1.04 (95%CI: 0.49–2.23), respectively. The simulated confounder was substantially stronger than any of the baseline confounders in our dataset. Quantification of effects of de-escalation on patient outcomes without proper adjustment for clinical stability results in strong negative bias. This study suggests the effect of de-escalation on mortality needs further well-designed prospective research to determine effect size more accurately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The widespread emergence of resistance to insecticides used to control adult Aedes mosquitoes has made traditional control strategies inadequate for the reduction of various vector populations. Therefore, complementary vector control methods, such as the Sterile Insect Technique, are needed to enhance existing efforts. The technique relies on the rearing and release of large numbers of sterile males, and the development of efficient and standardized mass-rearing procedures and tools is essential for its application against medically important mosquitoes. Methods: In the effort to reduce the cost of the rearing process, a prototype low-cost plexiglass mass-rearing cage has been developed and tested for egg production and egg hatch rate in comparison to the current Food and Agriculture Organization/International Atomic Energy Agency (FAO/IAEA) stainless-steel cage. Additionally, an adult-index was validated and used as a proxy to estimate the mosquito survival rates by counting the number of male and female mosquitoes that were resting within each of the 6 squares at a given point of time each day in the cage. Results: The study has shown that the prototype mass-rearing cage is cheap and is as efficient as the FAO/IAEA stainless-steel cage in terms of egg production, with even better overall egg hatch rate. The mean numbers of eggs per cage, after seven cycles of blood feeding and egg collection, were 969,789 ± 138,101 and 779,970 ± 123,042, corresponding to 81 ± 11 and 65 ± 10 eggs per female over her lifespan, in the prototype and the stainless-steel-mass-rearing cages, respectively. The longevity of adult male and female mosquitoes was not affected by cage type and, the adult-index could be considered as an appropriate proxy for survival. Moreover, the mass-rearing cage prototype is easy to handle and transport and improves economic and logistic efficiency. Conclusion: The low-cost mass-rearing prototype cage can be recommended to produce Ae. aegypti in the context of rear and release techniques. The proposed adult-index can be used as a quick proxy of mosquito survival rates in mass-rearing settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of healthcare-associated infections (as opposed to hospital-acquired infections) in intraabdominal infections (IAIs) is scarcely supported by data in the literature. The aim of the present study was to analyse community-onset IAIs (non-postoperative/non-nosocomial) in patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), to investigate differences in resistance patterns linked to healthcare exposure and mortality-associated factors. A one-year prospective observational study (17 Spanish ICUs) was performed distributing cases as healthcare-associated infections (HCAI), community-acquired infections (CAI) and immunocompromised patients (ICP). Bacteria producing extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBL) and/or carbapenemase (CPE), high-level aminoglycoside- and/or methicillin- and/or vancomycin- resistance were considered antimicrobial resistant (AMR). Mortality-associated factors were identified by regression multivariate analysis. Of 345 patients included (18.8% HCAI, 6.1% ICP, 75.1% CAI), 51.6% presented generalized peritonitis; 32.5% were >75 years (55.4% among HCAI). Overall, 11.0% cases presented AMR (7.0% ESBL- and/or CPE), being significantly higher in HCAI (35.4%) vs. CAI (5.8%) (p<0.001) vs. ICP (0%) (p = 0.003). Overall 30-day mortality was 14.5%: 23.1% for HCAI and 11.6% for CAI (p = 0.016). Mortality (R2 = 0.262, p = 0.021) was positively associated with age >75 years (OR = 6.67, 95%CI = 2.56–17.36,p<0.001), Candida isolation (OR = 3.05, 95%CI = 1.18–7.87,p = 0.022), and SAPS II (per-point, OR = 1.08, 95%CI = 1.05–1.11, p<0.001) and negatively with biliary infections (OR = 0.06, 95%CI = 0.01–0.48,p = 0.008). In this study, the antimicrobial susceptibility pattern of bacteria isolated from patients with healthcare contact was shifted to resistance, suggesting the need for consideration of the healthcare category (not including hospital-acquired infections) for severe IAIs. 30-day mortality was positively related with age >75 years, severity and Candida isolation but not with AMR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The benefits and efficacy of control programs for herds infected with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) have been investigated under various contexts. However, most previous research investigated paratuberculosis control programs in isolation, without modeling the potential association with other dairy diseases. This paper evaluated the benefits of MAP control programs when the herd is also affected by mastitis, a common disease causing the largest losses in dairy production. The effect of typically suggested MAP controls were estimated under the assumption that MAP infection increased the rate of clinical mastitis. We evaluated one hundred twenty three control strategies comprising various combinations of testing, culling, and hygiene, and found that the association of paratuberculosis with mastitis alters the ranking of specific MAP control programs, but only slightly alters the cost-benefit difference of particular MAP control components, as measured by the distribution of net present value of a representative U.S. dairy operation. In particular, although testing and culling for MAP resulted in a reduction in MAP incidence, that control led to lower net present value (NPV) per cow. When testing was used, ELISA was more economically beneficial than alternative testing regimes, especially if mastitis was explicitly modeled as more likely in MAP-infected animals, but ELISA testing was only significantly associated with higher NPV if mastitis was not included in the model at all. Additional hygiene was associated with a lower NPV per cow, although it lowered MAP prevalence. Overall, the addition of an increased risk of mastitis in MAP-infected animals did not change model recommendations as much as failing to consider. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is criticized by some as an expensive treatment in super-elder patients with limited life expectancy. However, there is a knowledge gap regarding the magnitude of clinical benefit provided by TAVI in comparison with conservative management in patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS) in real clinical practice, which would be important in the decision making for TAVI. Methods: We combined two independent registries, namely CURRENT AS and K-TAVI registries. CURRENT AS was a multicenter registry enrolling 3815 consecutive patients with severe AS irrespective to treatment modalities between January 2003 and December 2011. K-TAVI was a multicenter, prospective registry including 449 consecutive patients with severe AS, who underwent TAVI with SAPIEN XT balloon-expandable valves between October 2013 and June 2016. In these 2 registries, 449 patients received TAVI and 894 patients were managed with conservative strategy. We conducted propensity score matching and finally obtained a cohort of 556 patients (278 patients for each group) for the analysis. The primary outcome measures were all-cause death and heart failure (HF) hospitalization at 2-year. Results: The cumulative 2-year incidences of all-cause death and HF hospitalization were significantly lower in the TAVI group than in the conservative group (16.8% versus 36.6%, P<0.001, and 10.7% versus 37.2%, P<0.001). After adjusting the residual confounders, TAVI reduced the risks of all-cause death (HR, 0.46; 95%CI, 0.32–0.69; P = 0.0001) and HF hospitalizations (HR, 0.25; 95%CI, 0.16–0.40; P<0.0001) compared with conservative strategy. There was no difference in the cumulative incidence of non-cardiovascular death between the 2 groups. Conclusions: TAVI in the early Japanese experience was associated with striking risk reduction for all-cause death as well as HF hospitalization as compared with the historical cohort of patients with severe AS who were managed conservatively just before introduction of TAVI in Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Accurate prognostic evaluation is a key factor in the clinical management of patients affected by severe acute brain injury (ABI) and helps planning focused therapies, better caregiver’s support and allocation of resources. Aim of the study was to assess factors independently associated with both the short and long-term outcomes after rehabilitation in patients affected by ABI in the setting of a single Rehabilitation Unit specifically allocated to these patients. Methods and findings: In all patients (567) with age ≥ 18 years discharged from the Unit in the period 2006/2015 demographic, etiologic, comorbidity indicators, and descriptors of the disability burden (at hospital admission and discharge) were evaluated as potential prognostic factors of both short-term (4 classes of disability status at discharge) and long-term (mortality) outcomes. A comprehensive analytical method was adopted to combine several tasks. Select the factors with a significant independent association with the outcome, assess the relative weights and the “stability” (by bootstrap resampling) of them and estimate the role of the prognostic models in the clinical framework considering “cost” and “benefits”. The generalized ordered logistic model for ordinal dependent variables was used for the short-term outcome while the Cox proportional hazard model was used for the long-term outcome. The final short-term model identified 7 factors that independently account for 37% of the outcome variability as shown by pseudo R2 (pR2) = 0.37. The disability status descriptors show the strongest association since they account for more than 60% of the pR2, followed by age (14.8%), the presence of percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy or nasogastric intubation (14.4%), a longer stay in the acute ward (5.9%) and concomitant coronary disease (1.3%). The final multivariable Cox model identified 4 factors that independently account for 52% of the outcome variability (R2 = 0.52). The disability extent and the disability recovered lead the long-term mortality since they account for the 53% of the global R2. The relevant effect of age (42%) is appreciable only after 2 years given the significant interaction with time. A longer stay in the acute ward explains the remaining fraction (5%). Considering ‘cost and benefits’, the decision curve analysis shows that the clinical benefit achieved by using both prognostic models is greater than the other possible action strategies, namely ‘treat all’ and ‘treat none. Several less obvious characteristics of the prognostic models are appreciated by integrating the results of multiple analytical methods. Conclusion: The comprehensive analytical tool aimed to integrate statistical significance, weight, “stability” and clinical “net” benefit, gives back a prognostic framework explaining a relevant portion of both outcomes’ variability in which the strong association of the disability status with both outcomes is comparable to and followed by a time modulated role of age. Our data do not support a differentiated association of traumatic vs non-traumatic etiology. The results encourage the use of integrated approach to analyze cohort data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Attempts to assess behavioral responses of prey to predation risk are often confounded by depredation of prey. Moreover, the scale at which the response of prey is assessed has important implications for discovering how predation risk alters prey behavior. Herein, we assessed space use of wild Ring-necked Pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) in response to spatial and temporal variation in recreational hunting. We radio-marked pheasants and monitored space use at two spatial scales: short-term seasonal home range, and nightly resting locations. Additionally, we considered temporal variation in predation risk by monitoring space use prior to and during the pheasant hunting season. Although we found no change in nightly resting location, pheasants subjected to predation risk expanded their home range and shifted home range location even when invulnerable to predation. Home range formation was plastic, with home ranges expanding and contracting as risk fluctuated before and during the hunting season. Depredation reduced the measured response within the population, obscuring the potential importance of perceived predation risk in shaping prey communities, particularly when not measured at the appropriate scale. By assessing space use of a wild prey population at multiple scales, considering spatial and temporal variation in predation risk, we show that not only does predation risk affect space use, but that the effects at the population level may be challenging to assess when not measured at the appropriate ecological scale because of the direct effects of differential mortality on the same behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scapsipedus icipe Hugel and Tanga (Orthoptera: Gryllidae) is a newly described edible cricket species. Although, there is substantial interest in mass production of S. icipe for human food and animal feed, no information exists on the impact of temperature on their bionomics. Temperature-dependent development, survival, reproductive and life table parameters of S. icipe was generated and integrated into advanced Insect Life Cycle Modeling software to describe relative S. icipe population increase and spatial spread based on nine constant temperature conditions. We examined model predictions and implications for S. icipe potential distribution in Africa under current and future climate. These regions where entomophagy is widely practiced have distinctly different climates. Our results showed that S. icipe eggs were unable to hatch at 10 and 40°C, while emerged nymphs failed to complete development at 15°C. The developmental time of S. icipe was observed to decrease with increased in temperature. The lowest developmental threshold temperatures estimated using linear regressions was 14.3, 12.67 and 19.12°C and the thermal constants for development were 185.2, 1111.1- and 40.7-degree days (DD) for egg, nymph and pre-adult stages, respectively. The highest total fecundity (3416 individuals/female/generation), intrinsic rate of natural increase (0.075 days), net reproductive rate (1330.8 female/female/generation) and shortest doubling time (9.2 days) was recorded at 30°C. The regions predicted to be suitable by the model suggest that S. icipe is tolerant to a wider range of climatic conditions. Our findings provide for the first-time important information on the impact of temperature on the biology, establishment and spread of S. icipe across the Africa continent. The prospect of edible S. icipe production to become a new sector in food and feed industry is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To analyze and compare the performance of the Simplified-Acute-Physiology-Score (SAPS) 2 and SAPS 3 among intermediate care patients with internal disorders. Materials and methods: We conducted a retrospective single-center analysis in patients (n = 305) admitted to an intermediate-care-unit (ImCU) for internal medicine at the University Hospital Essen, Germany. We employed and compared the SAPS 2 vs. the SAPS 3 scoring system for the assessment of disease severity and prediction of mortality rates among patients admitted to the ImCU within an 18-month period. Both scores, which utilize parameters recorded at admission to the intensive-care-unit (ICU), represent the most widely applied scoring systems in European intensive care medicine. The area-under-the-receiver-operating-characteristic-curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the SAPS 2 and SAPS 3 discrimination performance. Ultimately, standardized-mortality-ratios (SMRs) were calculated alongside their respective 95%-confidence-intervals (95% CI) in order to determine the observed-to-expected death ratio and calibration belt plots were generated to evaluate the SAPS 2 and SAPS 3 calibration performance. Results: Both scores provided acceptable discrimination performance, i.e., the AUROC was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.65–0.77) for SAPS 2 and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.72–0.82) for SAPS 3. Against the observed in-hospital mortality of 30.2%, SAPS 2 showed a weak performance with a predicted mortality of 17.4% and a SMR of 1.74 (95% CI, 1.38–2.09), especially in association with liver diseases and/or sepsis. SAPS 3 performed accurately, resulting in a predicted mortality of 29.9% and a SMR of 1.01 (95% CI, 0.8–1.21). Based on Calibration belt plots, SAPS 2 showed a poor calibration-performance especially in patients with low mortality risk (P<0.001), while SAPS 3 exhibited a highly accurate calibration performance (P = 0.906) across all risk levels. Conclusions: In our study, the SAPS 3 exhibited high accuracy in prediction of mortality in ImCU patients with internal disorders. In contrast, the SAPS 2 underestimated mortality particularly in patients with liver diseases and sepsis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Gastroenteritis (GE) and respiratory tract infection (RTI) outbreaks are a significant issue in nursing homes. This study aimed to describe GE and RTI outbreaks with infection and all-cause lethality rates according to the individual characteristics of nursing home residents. Methods: Clinical and virological surveillance were conducted (2007 to 2018). Virus stratifications for the analysis were: outbreaks with positive norovirus or influenza identifications (respectively NoV+ or Flu+), episodes with no NoV or influenza identification or testing (respectively NoV- or Flu-). Associations between individual variables (sex, age, length of stay (LOS), autonomy status) and infection and lethality rates were tested with univariate and Mantel-Haenszel (MH) methods. Results: 61 GE outbreaks and 76 RTI oubreaks (total 137 outbreaks) were recorded involving respectively 4309 and 5862 residents. In univariate analysis, higher infection rates and age were associated in NoV+, NoV-, and Flu+ contexts, and lower infection rates were associated with longer stays (NoV+ and NoV-). In MH stratified analysis (virus, sex (female/male)) adjusted for LOS (<4 or ≥4 years), the odds of being infected remained significant among older residents (≥86 years): NoV+/male (Odds ratio (ORMH): 1.64, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16–2.30) and Flu+/female and male (respectively ORMH: 1.50, CI: 1.27–1.79 and 1.73, CI: 1.28–2.33). In univariate analysis, lower autonomy status (NoV+, Flu+ and Flu-) and increased age (Flu+) were associated with higher lethality. In MH adjusted analysis, significant ORage adjusted for autonomy was: Flu+/ ≥86 years compared with <86 years, 1.97 (1.19–3.25) and ORautonomy adjusted for age for the more autonomous group (compared with the less autonomous group) was: Flu+, 0.41 (0.24–0.69); Flu-, 0.42 (0.20, 0.90). Conclusion: The residents of nursing homes are increasingly elderly and dependent. The specific infection and lethality risks according to these two factors indicate that surveillance and infection control measures are essential and of high priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is an option for treatment for patients with severe aortic stenosis who are at high risk for death with surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR). It is unknown whether TAVI can be safely introduced to intermediate- and low-risk patients. Objective: To compare the efficacy and safety of TAVI and SAVR in patients with intermediate- and low-surgical risk. Data sources: Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched from inception to April 15, 2019. Study selection: We included randomized controlled trials comparing TAVI with SAVR in patients with intermediate- and low-surgical risk. Data extraction: Meta-analyses were conducted using random-effects models to calculate risk ratios (RR) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Two independent reviewers completed citation screening, data abstraction, and risk assessment. Primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality or disabling stroke at 12 months. Data Synthesis: A total of 5 trials randomizing 6390 patients were included. In patients with low risk, TAVI was associated with a significant reduction in the composite of all-cause mortality or disabling stroke compared with SAVR (RR, 0.56; 95%CI, 0.40–0.79; I2 = 0%). This benefit was not replicated in patients with intermediate risk (RR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.80–1.15; I2 = 0%). Similar results were seen separately in all-cause mortality and disabling stroke when TAVI was compared with SAVR. Conclusion: For patients with severe aortic stenosis who were at low risk for death from surgery, TAVI achieved superior clinical outcomes compared to SAVR; however, these benefits were not seen in those with intermediate risk. This information may inform discussions about deciding between SAVR and TAVI for patients with low to intermediate risk separately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) disease reactivates from distant latent infection or recent (re)infection. Progression risks increase with age. Across the World Health Organisation Western Pacific region, many populations are ageing and have the highest per capita TB incidence rates in older age groups. However, methods for analysing age-specific TB incidence and forecasting epidemic trends while accounting for demographic change remain limited. Methods: We applied the Lee-Carter models, which were originally developed for mortality modelling, to model the temporal trends in age-specific TB incidence data from 2005 to 2018 in Taiwan. Females and males were modelled separately. We combined our demographic forecasts, and age-specific TB incidence forecasts to project TB incidence until 2035. We compared TB incidence projections with demography fixed in 2018 to projections accounting for demographic change. Results: Our models quantified increasing incidence rates with age and declining temporal trends. By 2035, the forecast suggests that the TB incidence rate in Taiwan will decrease by 54% (95% Prediction Interval (PI): 45%-59%) compared to 2015, while most age-specific incidence rates will reduce by more than 60%. In 2035, adults aged 65 and above will make up 78% of incident TB cases. Forecast TB incidence in 2035 accounting for demographic change will be 39% (95% PI: 36%-42%) higher than without population ageing. Conclusions: Age-specific incidence forecasts coupled with demographic forecasts can inform the impact of population ageing on TB epidemics. The TB control programme in Taiwan should develop plans specific to older age groups and their care needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The true spatiotemporal structure of a fish population is often more complex than represented in assessments because movement between spawning components is disregarded and data at the necessary scale are unavailable. This can generate poor advice. We explore the impacts of modelling choices and their associated risks given limited data and lack of biological knowledge on spawning component structure and connectivity. Pseudo-data for an age structured fish population were simulated with two spawning components that experience various levels of connectivity and that might overlap during a certain period but segregate during reproduction. A variety of implicit spatiotemporal and simpler models were fitted to the pseudo-datasets, mimicking different situations of data availability. To reproduce the true stock characteristics, the spatiotemporal models required total catch data disaggregated by spawning component; however, catch-at-age was not as important nor were disaggregated biomass indices to reproduce true dynamics. Even with just 5% connectivity between spawning components, both the spatiotemporal models and simpler alternatives generally overestimated stock biomass. Although bias was smallest when considering one unit population, spawning components might still need to be considered for management and conservation. In such case, the spatiotemporal model was less influenced by ignored connectivity patterns compared to a model focussing on one spawning component only. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Acute kidney injury in hospital patients is common and associated with reduced survival and higher healthcare costs. The Tackling Acute Kidney Injury (TAKI) quality improvement project aimed to reduce mortality rates in patients with acute kidney injury by implementing a multicomponent intervention comprising of an electronic alert, care bundle and education in five UK hospitals across a variety of wards. A parallel developmental evaluation using a case study approach was conducted to provide the implementation teams with insights into factors that might impact intervention implementation and fidelity. The qualitative element of the evaluation will be reported. Methods: 29 semi-structured interviews with implementation teams across the five hospitals were carried out to identify perceived barriers and enablers to implementation. Interviews were taped and transcribed verbatim and Framework analysis was conducted. Results: Interviews generated four ‘barriers and enablers’ to implementation themes: i) practical/contextual factors, ii) skills and make-up of the TAKI implementation team, iii) design, development and implementation approach, iv) staff knowledge, attitudes, behaviours and support. Enablers included availability of specialist teams (e.g. educational teams), multi-disciplinary implementation teams with strong leadership, team-based package completion and proactive staff. Barriers were frequently the converse of facilitators. Conclusions: Despite diversity of sites, a range of common local factors–contextual, intervention-based and individual–were identified as potential barriers and enablers to fidelity, including intervention structure/design and process of/approach to implementation. Future efforts should focus on early identification and management of barriers and tailored optimisation of known enablers such as leadership and multidisciplinary teams to encourage buy-in. Improved measures of real-time intervention and implementation fidelity would further assist local teams to target their support during such quality improvement initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The presence of earthworm species in crop fields is as old as agriculture itself. The earthworms Pontoscolex corethrurus (invasive) and Balanteodrilus pearsei (native) are associated with the emergence of agriculture and sedentism in the region Amazon and Maya, respectively. Both species have shifted their preference from their natural habitat to the cropland niche. They contrast in terms of intensification of agricultural land use (anthropic impact to the symbiotic soil microbiome). P. corethrurus inhabits conventional agroecosystems, while B. pearsei thrives in traditional agroecosystems, i.e., P. corethrurus has not yet been recorded in soils where B. pearsei dwells. The demographic behavior of these two earthworm species was assessed in the laboratory over 100 days, according to their origin (OE; P. corethrurus and B. pearsei) food quality (FQ; soil only, maize stubble, Mucuna pruriens), and soil moisture (SM; 25, 33, 42%). The results showed that OE, FQ, SM, and the OE x FQ interaction were highly significant for the survival, growth, and reproduction of earthworms. P. corethrurus showed a lower survival rate (> mortality). P. corethrurus survivors fed a diet of low-to-intermediate nutritional quality (soil and stubble maize, respectively) showed a greater capacity to grow and reproduce; however, it was surpassed by the native earthworm when fed a high-quality diet (M. pruriens). Besides, P. corethrurus displayed a low cocoon hatching (emergence of juveniles). These results suggest that the presence of the invasive species was associated with a negative interaction with the soil microbiota where the native species dwells, and with the absence of natural mutualistic bacteria (gut, nephridia, and cocoons). These results are consistent with the absence of P. corethrurus in milpa and pasture-type agricultural niches managed by peasants (agroecologists) to grow food regularly through biological soil management. Results reported here suggest that P. corethrurus is an invasive species that is neither wild nor domesticated, that is, its eco-evolutionary phylogeny needs to be derived based on its symbionts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The inverse association between mortality and individual socioeconomic status is well-documented. Due to the lack of appropriate data, little is known about the nature of this association among individuals with long-term care (LTC) needs. Objectives: We aim to fill in this knowledge gap by estimating life expectancy (LE), life expectancy without (CFLE) and with (CLE) long-term care by education for older German men; and by assessing the trends in the education-LE/CFLE/CLE gradient over time. Data and methods: We apply survival analysis and Gompertz regression to German Socioeconomic Panel data (1997–2012) to estimate the mortality levels and to construct the life tables for three educational categories. Using the administrative data from the health insurance, we adjust mortality rates upward to account for the institutionalized population. We estimate age-specific LTC prevalence from the German Microcensus data (2004, 2012) and compute life expectancy with and without LTC by employing Sullivan’s method. Slope and Relative Indices of Inequality are computed to evaluate the magnitude of educational inequalities in CFLE. Results: There is a clear and growing educational gradient in LE and CFLE among older men in Germany. In 2004, LE at age 65 among men with low education was 14.2 years, or 3.3 years lower than among highly educated individuals. The CFLE of these two educational categories ranged from 13.6 to almost 17 years. The gradient increased over time and in 2012 the difference constituted 4.6 years. The gaps between educational groups were not pronounced for CLE. The declining health ratio of years without LTC to remaining LE suggests the expansion of LTC needs, irrespective of the educational level. Conclusions: Growing inequalities by educational status among older German men with care needs demand the attention of policy-makers. Prompt actions are needed to increase the survival chances of the most vulnerable groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lactate is used to evaluate the prognosis of adult patients with trauma. However, the prognostic significance of admission serum lactate in the setting of pediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI) is still unclear. We aim to investigate the impact of admission lactate on the outcome in children with moderate to severe TBI. Methods: This retrospective study was conducted in a tertiary pediatric hospital between May 2012 and Jun 2018 included children with an admission Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) of ≤13. Two hundred and thirteen patients were included in the analysis and 45 patients died in hospital. Results: Admission lactate and glucose were significantly higher in non-survivors than those in survivors (P < 0.05). Admission lactate was positively correlated with admission glucose and negatively correlated with GCS in all patients (n = 213), subgroup of isolated TBI (n = 112) and subgroup of GCS ≤ 8 (n = 133), respectively. AUCs of lactate could significantly predict the mortality and were higher than those of glucose in all patients, subgroup of isolated TBI and subgroup of GCS ≤ 8, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression showed that admission lactate (Adjusted OR = 1.189; 95% CI: 1.002–1.410; P = 0.047) was independently associated with mortality, while admission glucose (Adjusted OR = 1.077; 95% CI: 0.978–1.186; P = 0.133) wasn’t an independent risk factor of death. Elevated admission lactate (> 2 mmol/L) was associated with death, reduced 14-day ventilation-free days, 14-day ICU-free days and 28-day hospital-free days. Conclusions: Admission serum lactate can effectively predict the mortality of children with moderate to severe TBI. Elevated admission lactate is associated with death, reduced ventilator-free, ICU-free, and hospital-free days. Admission serum lactate could be used as a prognostic biomarker of mortality in children with moderate to severe TBI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with substantial cardiovascular morbidity. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a prevalent arrhythmia that increases the risk of both stroke and cardiovascular mortality. Information about the mortality risk among patients with advanced CKD and new-onset AF (NAF) in the presence and absence of dialysis is important. However, the association between advanced CKD and NAF in patients with and without dialysis is unclear. Objective: To investigate long-term outcomes of the association between advanced CKD and NAF in patients with and without dialysis. Methods: We conducted a nested case-control study based on the National Health Insurance Program in Taiwan. Each participant aged 20 years and older who had CKD with dialysis from 2000 to 2013 was assigned to the dialysis group, whereas sex-, age-, CKD duration-, and index date-matched participants without dialysis were randomly selected and assigned to the non-dialysis group. We used the Cox regression model to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) with the 95% confidence interval (CI) for mortality in CKD patients with combined dialysis and NAF. Patients with neither NAF nor dialysis served as the reference group. Results: We identified 3,673 dialysis cases and 7,346 Non-dialysis matched controls for enrolment in the study. The crude mortality rates were 3.3 (95% CI: 3.1–3.5), 10.98 (95% CI: 9.3–13.0), 9.2 (95% CI: 8.7–10.0), and 18.0 (95% CI: 15.4–21.2) in the [Non-dialysis, non-NAF], [Non-dialysis, NAF], [Dialysis, non-NAF], and [Dialysis, NAF] groups, respectively. After adjustment for age, gender, and co-morbidities, the aHRs were 2.0 (95% CI: 1.7–2.3), 2.7 (95% CI: 2.5–2.9), and 3.5 (95% CI: 2.9–4.1) in the [Non-Dialysis, NAF], [Dialysis, non-NAF], and [Dialysis, NAF] groups compared with the [Non-Dialysis, non-NAF] group, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed the highest mortality risk in the [Dialysis, NAF] group among the study groups. Patients with concurrent peritoneal dialysis and AF had the highest mortality risk: aHR = 4.3 (95% CI: 2.3–8.0). However, there was a relatively lower effect of NAF on mortality in patients on dialysis than in patients who were not. Conclusions: Patients with advanced CKD and NAF had a significantly increased risk of mortality. Dialysis is not risky for patients with concurrent CKD and NAF. Dialysis offers a sufficient survival benefit to be considered as a standard treatment, as indicated by the superior physical status of patients on dialysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maternal, fetal, and neonatal health outcomes are interdependent. Designing public health strategies that link fetal and neonatal outcomes with maternal outcomes is necessary in order to successfully reduce perinatal and neonatal mortality, particularly in low- and middle- income countries. However, to date, there has been no standardized method for documenting, reporting, and reviewing facility-based stillbirths and neonatal deaths that links to maternal health outcomes would enable a more comprehensive understanding of the burden and determinants of poor fetal and neonatal outcomes. We developed and pilot-tested an adapted RAPID tool, Perinatal-Neonatal Rapid Ascertainment Process for Institutional Deaths (PN RAPID), to systematically identify and quantify facility-based stillbirths and neonatal deaths and link them to maternal health factors in two countries: Liberia and Nepal. This study found an absence of stillbirth timing documented in records, a high proportion of neonatal deaths occurring within the first 24 hours, and an absence of documentation of pregnancy-related and maternal factors that might be associated with fetal and neonatal outcomes. The use of an adapted RAPID methodology and tools was limited by these data gaps, highlighting the need for concurrent strengthening of death documentation through training and standardized record templates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dengue is one of the most serious mosquito-borne infectious diseases in the world. Aedes albopictus is the most invasive mosquito and one of the primary vectors of dengue. Vector control using insecticides is the only viable strategy to prevent dengue virus transmission. In Guangzhou, after the 2014 pandemic, massive insecticides have been implemented. Massive insecticide use may lead to the development of resistance, but few reports are available on the status of insecticide resistance in Guangzhou after 2014. In this study, Ae. albopictus were collected from four districts with varied dengue virus transmission intensity in Guangzhou from 2015 to 2017. Adult Ae. albopictus insecticide susceptibility to deltamethrin (0.03%), permethrin(0.25%), DDT(4%), malathion (0.8%) and bendiocarb (0.1%) was determined by the standard WHO tube test, and larval resistance bioassays were conducted using temephos, Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti), pyriproxyfen (PPF) and hexaflumuron. Mutations at the voltage-gated sodium channel (VGSC) gene and acetylcholinesterase (AChE) gene were analyzed. The effect of cytochrome P450s on the resistance of Ae. albopictus to deltamethrin was tested using the synergistic agent piperonyl butoxide (PBO). The results showed that Ae. albopictus populations have rapidly developed very high resistances to multiple commonly used insecticides at all study areas except malathion, Bti and hexaflumuron. We found 1534 codon mutations in the VGSC gene that were significantly correlated with the resistance to pyrethroids and DDT, and 11 synonymous mutations were also found in the gene. The resistance to deltamethrin can be significantly reduced by PBO but may generated cross-resistance to PPF. Fast emerging resistance in Ae. albopictus may affect mosquito management and threaten the prevention and control of dengue, similar to the resistance in Anopheles mosquitoes has prevented the elimination of malaria and call for timely and guided insecticide management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There are limited data on acute kidney injury (AKI) complicating acute myocardial infarction with cardiogenic shock (AMI-CS). This study sought to evaluate 15-year national prevalence, temporal trends and outcomes of AKI with no need for hemodialysis (AKI-ND) and requiring hemodialysis (AKI-D) following AMI-CS. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study from 2000–2014 from the National Inpatient Sample (20% stratified sample of all community hospitals in the United States). Adult patients (>18 years) admitted with a primary diagnosis of AMI and secondary diagnosis of CS were included. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality in cohorts with no AKI, AKI-ND, and AKI-D. Secondary outcomes included predictors, resource utilization and disposition. Results: During this 15-year period, 440,257 admissions for AMI-CS were included, with AKI in 155,610 (35.3%) and hemodialysis use in 14,950 (3.4%). Older age, black race, non-private insurance, higher comorbidity, organ failure, and use of cardiac and non-cardiac organ support were associated with the AKI development and hemodialysis use. There was a 2.6-fold higher adjusted risk of developing AKI in 2014 compared to 2000. Presence of AKI-ND and AKI-D was associated with a 1.3 and 1.7-fold higher adjusted risk of mortality. Compared to the cohort without AKI, AKI-ND and AKI-D were associated with longer length of stay (9±10, 12±13, and 18±19 days respectively; p<0.001) and higher hospitalization costs ($101,859±116,204, $159,804±190,766, and $265,875 ± 254,919 respectively; p<0.001). Conclusion: AKI-ND and AKI-D are associated with higher in-hospital mortality and resource utilization in AMI-CS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sepsis is a global healthcare challenge and reliable tools are needed to identify patients and stratify their risk. Here we compare the prognostic accuracy of the sepsis-related organ failure assessment (SOFA), quick SOFA (qSOFA), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), and national early warning system (NEWS) scores for hospital mortality and other outcomes amongst patients with suspected infection at an academic public hospital. Measurements and main results: 10,981 adult patients with suspected infection hospitalized at a U.S. academic public hospital between 2011–2017 were retrospectively identified. Primary exposures were the maximum SIRS, qSOFA, SOFA, and NEWS scores upon inclusion. Comparative prognostic accuracy for the primary outcome of hospital mortality was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Secondary outcomes included mortality in ICU versus non-ICU settings, ICU transfer, ICU length of stay (LOS) >3 days, and hospital LOS >7 days. Adjusted analyses were performed using a model of baseline risk for hospital mortality. 774 patients (7.1%) died in hospital. Discrimination for hospital mortality was highest for SOFA (AUROC 0.90 [95% CI, 0.89–0.91]), followed by NEWS (AUROC 0.85 [95% CI, 0.84–0.86]), qSOFA (AUROC 0.84 [95% CI, 0.83–0.85]), and SIRS (AUROC 0.79 [95% CI, 0.78–0.81]; p<0.001 for all comparisons). NEWS (AUROC 0.94 [95% CI, 0.93–0.95]) outperformed other scores in predicting ICU transfer (qSOFA AUROC 0.89 [95% CI, 0.87–0.91]; SOFA AUROC, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.82–0.87]; SIRS AUROC 0.81 [95% CI, 0.79–0.83]; p<0.001 for all comparisons). NEWS (AUROC 0.86 [95% CI, 0.85–0.86]) was also superior to other scores in predicting ICU LOS >3 days (SOFA AUROC 0.84 [95% CI, 0.83–0.85; qSOFA AUROC, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.83–0.84]; SIRS AUROC, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.74–0.76]; p<0.002 for all comparisons). Conclusions: Multivariate prediction scores, such as SOFA and NEWS, had greater prognostic accuracy than qSOFA or SIRS for hospital mortality, ICU transfer, and ICU length of stay. Complex sepsis scores may offer enhanced prognostic performance as compared to simple sepsis scores in inpatient hospital settings where more complex scores can be readily calculated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Infection is a major complication in liver cirrhosis and causes major morbidity and mortality. However, the incidence and mortality related to these conditions in patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) are unclear, as is whether antiviral therapy could change their infection risk.Methods and Findings: In this community-based cohort study, a total of 115,336 adults (mean age 52.2 years; 35.6% men) without cirrhosis participating in the New Taipei City Health Screening in 2005-2008 were classified as having noncirrhotic HCV (NC-HCV) (n = 2,839), noncirrhotic hepatitis B virus (NC-HBV) (n = 8,316), or no HBV or HCV infection (NBNC) (n = 104,181). Participants were followed to their first hospitalization for infection or death after data linkage with the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) and Death Registry. A Cox proportional hazard regression model, adjusted for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol consumption, education level, diabetes, renal function, systemic steroids, and history of hospitalization, was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for overall and individual sites of infection and infection-related mortality. The reference group was NBNC participants with normal to mildly elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (<1.5 times upper normal limit [UNL]) levels. To further address the impact of antiviral treatment on infection risk, we conducted analyses of data from the nationwide NHIRD and compared the risks for hospitalization because of infections and infection-related deaths between patients with HCV who received antiviral therapy (n = 20,264) and those who remained untreated (n = 104,360). During a median 8.2-year follow-up, the incidence of hospitalization for infection was substantially higher in NC-HCV patients. Compared to the reference group, NC-HCV was associated with a significantly higher risk for hospitalization because of overall infections (adjusted HR: 1.22; 95% CI: 1.12-1.33), but we observed no increased risk for patients in the NC-HBV (adjusted HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.88-1.01) or NBNC group with moderate to markedly elevated ALT levels (adjusted HR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.93-1.14). For specific sites of infection, the NC-HCV group had increased risks for septicemia and lower respiratory tract, reproductive, and urinary tract infections. We noted no increased risk for infection-related death among patients with NC-HCV. Patients with HCV who received antiviral therapy had significantly reduced infection-related hospitalization and death risks (adjusted HR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.73-0.84 for infection-related hospitalization and adjusted HR: 0.08; 95% CI: 0.04-0.16 for infection-related deaths). Study limitations include the exclusion of patients with cirrhosis from the cohort, the possibility of unmeasured confounding, and the lack of information on direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs).Conclusions: In this study, patients with NC-HCV were at increased risk for hospitalization for infection, while no increased risk was observed for NC-HBV-infected patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Newborns are at greatest risk of dying at and shortly after the time of birth. Newborn mortality remains an urgent concern and is an important indicator of child health, development and well-being. Studies examining the effectiveness of antenatal care on maternal and newborn health outcomes have provided conflicting results. The aim of this review and meta-analysis was to determine the pooled effect of antenatal care on neonatal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: We searched PubMed, Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL and Google Scholar from September to November 2016 and then updated our search on April 13, 2019. Two independent reviewers extracted data from eligible studies. The quality of each included study was assessed using the Risk of Bias Assessment tool for Non-Randomized Studies (RoBANS). The results were reported based on risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a random-effects model. Results: Eight hundred and ninety eight studies were initially identified. During screening, 23 studies were found to be relevant for data extraction. Of these, only twelve studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. In five of the twelve studies included in the analysis, antenatal care service utilization had a significant association with neonatal mortality. The pooled risk ratio by the random-effects model was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.86) for neonates born to women who received at least one antenatal care visit by a skilled provider as compared to neonates born to women who did not receive antenatal care. Conclusion: This review indicates that utilization of at least one antenatal care visit by a skilled provider during pregnancy reduces the risk of neonatal mortality by 39% in sub-Saharan African countries. Thus, in order to accelerate progress towards the reduction of newborn deaths, all pregnant women should receive antenatal care during pregnancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of actuarial senescence (defined here as the increase in mortality hazard with age) is often confounded with life span duration, which obscures the relative role of age-dependent and age-independent processes in shaping the variation in life span. We use the opportunity afforded by the Species360 database, a collection of individual life span records in captivity, to analyze age-specific mortality patterns in relation to variation in life span. We report evidence of actuarial senescence across 96 mammal species. We identify the life stage (juvenile, prime-age, or senescent) that contributes the most to the observed variation in life span across species. Actuarial senescence only accounted for 35%–50% of the variance in life span across species, depending on the body mass category. We computed the sensitivity and elasticity of life span to five parameters that represent the three stages of the age-specific mortality curve—namely, the duration of the juvenile stage, the mean juvenile mortality, the prime-age (i.e., minimum) adult mortality, the age at the onset of actuarial senescence, and the rate of actuarial senescence. Next, we computed the between-species variance in these five parameters. Combining the two steps, we computed the relative contribution of each of the five parameters to the variance in life span across species. Variation in life span was increasingly driven by the intensity of actuarial senescence and decreasingly driven by prime-age adult mortality from small to large species because of changes in the elasticity of life span to these parameters, even if all the adult survival parameters consistently exhibited a canalization pattern of weaker variability among long-lived species than among short-lived ones. Our work unambiguously demonstrates that life span cannot be used to measure the strength of actuarial senescence, because a substantial and variable proportion of life span variation across mammals is not related to actuarial senescence metrics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Turkey, hypertension was responsible for 13% of total deaths in 2015. We apply existing research finding regarding the impact of a population-wide reduction in sodium consumption on the decrease of the hypertension prevalence rate among 15+ years population and the gender-age specific reduction in total death rates among 30+ years population, and compare hypertension burden, averted deaths, costs and benefits between two scenarios. Methods: The first scenario (i.e. status quo) assumes constant hypertension prevalence rate and the death rates between 2015 and 2030. Based on the Framingham Heart Study and INTERSALT Study findings on the impact of salt-reduction strategies on hypertension prevalence rate, the second scenario (Scenario II) assumes a 17% reduction in the prevalence of hypertension in Turkey in 2030, from its 2015 prevalence level. We project hypertension attributable disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2030, monetize DALYs using GDP (and income) per capita, and compare the projected economic benefits of DALYs averted and the additional costs associated with the increases in hypertension treatment through antihypertensive medications and physician consultations. Results: The estimated benefits of reducing the economic burden of hypertension deaths outweigh the cost of providing hypertension treatment. A decrease in hypertension prevalence by 17%, attributable to population-wide reduction in salt consumption, is projected to avert 24.3 thousand deaths in 2030. We projected that, compared to status quo, 392 thousand DALYs will be averted in Scenario II in 2030. The economic benefits of reduction in potential hypertension deaths are estimated to be 6.7 to 8.6 folds higher than the additional cost of hypertension treatment. Conclusion: Population-wide hypertension prevention and management is a win-win situation for public health and the Turkish health care system as the economic benefits of reducing deaths and disabilities associated with hypertension outweigh the costs significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To determine the factors associated with lung cancer diagnosis and mortality after detecting a solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN) in routine clinical practice, in men and in women for both chest radiograph and CT. Materials and methods: A 5-year follow-up of a retrospective cohort of of 25,422 (12,594 men, 12,827 women) patients aged ≥35 years referred for chest radiograph or CT in two hospitals in Spain (2010–2011). SPN were detected in 893 (546 men, 347 women) patients. We estimated the cumulative incidence of lung cancer at 5-years, the association of patient and nodule characteristics with SPN malignancy using Poisson logistic regression, stratifying by sex and type of imaging test. We calculated lung cancer specific mortality rate by sex and SPN detection and hazard rates by cox regression. Results: 133 (14.9%) out of 893 patients with an SPN and 505 (2.06%) of the 24,529 patients without SPN were diagnosed with lung cancer. Median diameter of SPN in women who developed cancer was larger than in men. Men who had a chest radiograph were more likely to develop a lung cancer if the nodule was in the upper-lobes, which was not the case for women. In patients with an SPN, smoking increased the risk of lung cancer among men (chest radiograph: RR = 11.3, 95%CI 1.5–83.3; CT: RR = 7.5, 95%CI 2.2, 26.0) but smoking was not significantly associated with lung cancer diagnosis or mortality among women with an SPN. The relative risk of lung cancer diagnosis in women with SPN versus those without was much higher compared to men (13.7; 95%CI 9.2, 20.4 versus 6.2; 95%CI 4.9,7.9). Conclusion: The factors associated with SPN malignancy and 5-year lung cancer mortality were different among men and women, especially regarding smoking history and SPN characteristics, where we observed a relatively high rate of lung cancer diagnosis among female non-smokers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Improving quality of intrapartum care will reduce intrapartum stillbirth and neonatal mortality, especially in resource-poor settings. Basic neonatal resuscitation can reduce intrapartum stillbirth and early neonatal mortality, if delivered in a high-quality health system, but there is a dearth of evidence on how to scale up such evidence-based interventions. We evaluated the scaling up of a quality improvement (QI) package for neonatal resuscitation on intrapartum-related mortality (intrapartum stillbirth and first day mortality) at hospitals in Nepal.Methods and Findings: We conducted a stepped-wedge cluster randomized controlled trial in 12 hospitals over a period of 18 months from April 14, 2017, to October 17, 2018. The hospitals were assigned to one of four wedges through random allocation. The QI package was implemented in a stepped-wedge manner with a delay of three months for each step. The QI package included improving hospital leadership on intrapartum care, building health workers' competency on neonatal resuscitation, and continuous facilitated QI processes in clinical units. An independent data collection system was set up at each hospital to gather data on mortality through patient case note review and demographic characteristics of women using semi-structured exit interviews. The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) and multivariate logistic regression were used for analyses. During this study period, a total of 89,014 women-infant pairs were enrolled. The mean age of the mother in the study period was 24.0 ± 4.3 years, with 54.9% from disadvantaged ethnic groups and 4.0% of them illiterate. Of the total birth cohort, 54.4% were boys, 16.7% had gestational age less than 37 weeks, and 17.1% had birth weight less than 2,500 grams. The incidence of intrapartum-related mortality was 11.0 per 1,000 births during the control period and 8.0 per 1,000 births during the intervention period (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.79; 95% CI, 0.69-0.92; p = 0.002; intra-cluster correlation coefficient [ICC], 0.0286). The incidence of early neonatal mortality was 12.7 per 1,000 live births during the control period and 10.1 per 1,000 live births during the intervention period (aOR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.78-1.02; p = 0.09; ICC, 0.1538). The use of bag-and-mask ventilation for babies with low Apgar score (<7 at 1 minute) increased from 3.2% in the control period to 4.0% in the intervention period (aOR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.32-1.77, p = 0.003). There were two major limitations to the study; although a large sample of women-infant pairs were enrolled in the study, the clustering reduced the power of the study. Secondly, the study was not sufficiently powered to detect reduction in early neonatal mortality with the number of clusters provided.Conclusion: These results suggest scaled-up implementation of a QI package for neonatal resuscitation can reduce intrapartum-related mortality and improve clinical care. The QI intervention package is likely to be effective in similar settings. More implementation research is required to assess the sustainability of QI interventions and quality of care.Trial Registration: ISRCTN30829654. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Antibiotic resistance poses a threat to public health and healthcare systems. Escherichia coli causes more bacteraemia episodes in England than any other bacterial species. This study aimed to estimate the burden of E. coli bacteraemia and associated antibiotic resistance in the secondary care setting. Materials and methods: This was a retrospective cohort study, with E. coli bacteraemia as the main exposure of interest. Adult hospital in-patients, admitted to acute NHS hospitals between July 2011 and June 2012 were included. English national surveillance and administrative datasets were utilised. Cox proportional hazard, subdistribution hazard and multistate models were constructed to estimate rate of discharge, rate of in-hospital death and excess length of stay, with a unit bed day cost applied to the latter to estimate cost burden from the healthcare system perspective. Results: 14,042 E. coli bacteraemia and 8,919,284 non-infected inpatient observations were included. E. coli bacteraemia was associated with an increased rate of in-hospital death across all models, with an adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio of 5.88 (95% CI: 5.62–6.15). Resistance was not found to be associated with in-hospital mortality once adjusting for patient and hospital covariates. However, resistance was found to be associated with an increased excess length of stay. This was especially true for third generation cephalosporin (1.58 days excess length of stay, 95% CI: 0.84–2.31) and piperacillin/tazobactam resistance (1.23 days (95% CI: 0.50–1.95)). The annual cost of E. coli bacteraemia was estimated to be £14,346,400 (2012 £), with third-generation cephalosporin resistance associated with excess costs per infection of £420 (95% CI: 220–630). Conclusions: E. coli bacteraemia places a statistically significant burden on patient health and the hospital sector in England. Resistance to front-line antibiotics increases length of stay; increasing the cost burden of such infections in the secondary care setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To identify emergency department triage accuracy using the Korean Triage and Acuity Scale (KTAS) and evaluate the causes of mistriage. Methods: This cross-sectional retrospective study was based on 1267 systematically selected records of adult patients admitted to two emergency departments between October 2016 and September 2017. Twenty-four variables were assessed, including chief complaints, vital signs according to the initial nursing records, and clinical outcomes. Three triage experts, a certified emergency nurse, a KTAS provider and instructor, and a nurse recommended based on excellent emergency department experience and competence determined the true KTAS. Triage accuracy was evaluated by inter-rater agreement between the expert and emergency nurse KTAS scores. The comments of the experts were analyzed to evaluate the cause of triage error. An independent sample t-test was conducted to compare the number of patient visits per hour in terms of the accuracy and inaccuracy of triage. Results: Inter-rater reliability between the emergency nurse and the true KTAS score was weighted kappa = .83 and Pearson’s r = .88 (p < .001). Of 1267 records, 186 (14.7%) showed some disagreement (under triage = 131, over triage = 55). Causes of mistriage included: error applying the numerical rating scale (n = 64) and misjudgment of the physical symptoms associated with the chief complaint (n = 47). There was no statistically significant difference in the number of patient visits per hour for accurate and inaccurate triage (t = -0.77, p = .442). Conclusion: There was highly agreement between the KTAS scores determined by emergency nurses and those determined by experts. The main cause of mistriage was misapplication of the pain scale to the KTAS algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) has high rates of mortality and multisystem morbidity. Pre-clinical data suggest that fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) may contribute to pulmonary pathology, and FGF23 is associated with mortality and morbidity, including acute kidney injury (AKI), in non-ARDS cohorts. Here, we assess whether FGF23 is associated with AKI and/or mortality in a cohort of 161 pediatric ARDS patients. Plasma total (intact + C-terminal) FGF23 and intact FGF23 concentrations were measured within 24 hours of ARDS diagnosis (Day 1), and associations with Day 3 AKI and 60-day mortality were evaluated. 35 patients (22%) developed AKI by 3 days post-ARDS diagnosis, and 25 (16%) died by 60 days post-ARDS diagnosis. In unadjusted models, higher Day 1 total FGF23 was associated with Day 3 AKI (odds ratio (OR) 2.22 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.62, 3.03], p<0.001), but Day 1 intact FGF23 was not. In a model adjusted for demographics and disease severity, total FGF23 remained associated with AKI (OR 1.52 [95% CI 1.02, 2.26], p = 0.039). In unadjusted models, both higher Day 1 total and intact FGF23 were associated with 60-day mortality (OR 1.43 [95% CI 1.07, 1.91], p = 0.014; and OR 1.44 [95% CI 1.02, 2.05], p = 0.039, respectively). In the adjusted model, only total FGF23 remained associated with 60-day mortality (OR 1.62 [95% CI 1.07, 2.45], p = 0.023). In a subgroup analysis of patients with Day 1 plasma IL-6 concentrations available, inflammation partially mediated the association between total FGF23 and AKI. Our data suggest both inflammation-dependent and inflammation-independent associations between total FGF23 and clinical outcomes in pediatric ARDS patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Despite the ease of health care access and the waiver of copayments for cancer patients, treatment is delayed in a small proportion of Taiwanese patients diagnosed with cervical cancer. In this study, we explored the relationship between the time interval from diagnosis to treatment and survival in cervical cancer patients. Material and methods: The study was a retrospective population-based observational study conducted between 2004 and 2010. In Taiwan, 12,020 patients were newly diagnosed with cervical cancer from 2004 to 2010, and 9,693 patients (80.6%) were enrolled in our final analysis. Results: Most of the patients received treatment within 90 days of diagnosis (n = 9,341, 96.37%). After adjustment for other variables, patients who received treatment between 90 and 180 days and >180 days after diagnosis had a 1.33 (95% CI: 1.02–1.72, P < 0.05) and 1.36 (95% CI: 1.12–1.65, P < 0.05) times higher risk of death, respectively, than those who received treatment within 90 days. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the patients treated after 90 days from diagnosis had a lower overall survival rate than those treated within 90 days. In analysis stratifying the patients according to their initial tumor stage, namely stages I and II and stage III and IV, the time interval from diagnosis to treatment remained a significant prognosticator in those who received treatment >180 days after diagnosis. Conclusion: A longer interval between diagnosis and treatment is associated with poorer prognosis among cervical cancer patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chronic liver disease (CLD) is a progressive destruction of liver tissue with subsequent necrosis that persists for at least 6 months. In Ethiopia, despite the high burden report, data on CLD is limited. The objective of this study was to assess short-term clinical outcomes in patients admitted with chronic liver disease to three tertiary teaching hospitals in Ethiopia and to identify predictors of mortality. Methods: A cohort of 109 patients admitted with CLD to three tertiary teaching hospitals in Ethiopia, were prospectively followed from the time of admission to 30-days of hospital discharge. The study was conducted from April 1, 2018, to October 5, 2018. Kaplan-Maier curve was used to estimate survival and cox-regression analysis to identify predictors of mortality. Result: A total of 109 patients (80% male) diagnosed with CLD were included. Median age of the participants was 38(IQR, 30–48). The overall median length of hospital stay was 7(IQR, 4–11) days. Of the total, 39(35.8%) patients were HBsAg positive, and 12(11%) patients were anti-HCV positive. The 30-day mortality was 38(34.9%), and most of the deaths, 31(81.6%) occurred before hospital discharge. Hepatic encephalopathy at admission; being with unidentified risk factor/etiologies of CLD and total bilirubin level were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Patients with hepatic encephalopathy at admission had approximately 11 times increased risk of death as compared to patients without hepatic encephalopathy at admission. Similarly, the hazard of mortality was 5.8 times higher in those patients with unidentified risk factor/etiology as compared to others. The risk of dying had also increased with an increase in bilirubin (1.188[95% CI, 1.0719–1.316]) level. Conclusion: Approximately one-quarter of patients with CLD died during their hospital stay, and the risk of death continued after hospital discharge. Hepatic encephalopathy at admission, unidentified risk factor/etiology and increased level of total bilirubin are poor prognostic factors. Given that more than one third the patients had HBV-infection, access to antiviral drugs could help improve the prognosis of patients with end-stage liver disease in Ethiopia, as well as prevent the progression of the disease if initiated earlier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological communities are undeniably diverse, both in terms of the species that compose them as well as the type of interactions that link species to each other. Despite this long recognition of the coexistence of multiple interaction types in nature, little is known about the consequences of this diversity for community functioning. In the ongoing context of global change and increasing species extinction rates, it seems crucial to improve our understanding of the drivers of the relationship between species diversity and ecosystem functioning. Here, using a multispecies dynamical model of ecological communities including various interaction types (e.g. competition for space, predator interference, recruitment facilitation in addition to feeding), we studied the role of the presence and the intensity of these interactions for species diversity, community functioning (biomass and production) and the relationship between diversity and functioning.Taken jointly, the diverse interactions have significant effects on species diversity, whose amplitude and sign depend on the type of interactions involved and their relative abundance. They however consistently increase the slope of the relationship between diversity and functioning, suggesting that species losses might have stronger effects on community functioning than expected when ignoring the diversity of interaction types and focusing on feeding interactions only. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diabetes is associated with poor outcomes in critically ill populations. The goal of this study was to determine if diabetic patients suffer poorer outcomes following trauma. Collaborative trauma patient data from 2012–2018 was analyzed. Patients with no signs-of-life, Injury Severity Score (ISS) <5, age <16 years, and hospitalization <1 day were excluded. Multivariable logistic and linear regression were used to compare patients with and without diabetes for selected outcomes. Risk-adjustment variables included demographics, physiology, comorbidities, and injury scoring. Of 106,141 trauma patients, 14,150 (13%) had diabetes. On admission, diabetes was associated with significantly increased risk of any, serious, infectious, urinary tract, sepsis, pneumonia, and cardiac complications. Diabetes was also associated with increased ventilator days (7.5 vs. 6.6 days, p = 0.003), intensive care unit days (5.8 vs. 5.3 days, p<0.001), and hospital length of stay (5.7 vs. 5.3 days, p<0.001). Subgroup analysis revealed the least injured diabetic category (ISS 5–15) suffered higher odds of hospital mortality and any, serious, infectious and cardiac complications. The association between diabetes, hospital mortality and complication rates in mild traumatic injury is independent of age. Trauma patients with diabetes experience higher rates of complications and resource utilization. The largest cohort of diabetics experience the least severe injuries and suffer the greatest in hospital mortality and complication rates. A better understanding of the physiologic derangements associated with diabetes is necessary to develop novel approaches to reduce excess trauma morbidity, mortality and resource consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of the inherent complexity of bioprocesses, mathematical models are more and more used for process design, control, optimization, etc. These models are generally based on a set of biochemical reactions. Model equations are then derived from mass balance, coupled with empirical kinetics. Biological models are nonlinear and represent processes, which by essence are dynamic and adaptive. The temptation to embed most of the biology is high, with the risk that calibration would not be significant anymore. The most important task for a modeler is thus to ensure a balance between model complexity and ease of use. Since a model should be tailored to the objectives, which will depend on applications and environment, a universal model representing any possible situation is probably not the best option. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although the perinatal mortality rate (PNMR) has been reduced over time in Bangladesh, the rate is still very high. Only a few studies explored the determinants of high PNMR in Bangladesh, yet most of them were small-scale or conducted for stillbirths and early neonatal deaths separately. The objective of this study was to explore the trends in and determinants of perinatal deaths in Bangladesh which would be an advanced step in effective policies to tackle the issue. Methods: The data used for this study was extracted from four rounds of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHSs) 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2014. We considered the outcome of the 26604 pregnancies reaching seven months of their gestation. The trends of perinatal mortality was assessed using the Cochran–Armitage test, while the logistic regression with generalized estimating equation (GEE) to account for the clustering effect was implemented to explore the association between perinatal mortality and its risk factors. Results: The PNMR was significantly reduced from 64 (95% CI: 57–73) to 41 (95% CI: 35–48) per 1000 pregnancies between 2004 and 2014 (stillbirths: 34 to 19 and early neonatal deaths: 30 to 22). After adjusting for potential covariates in the model, we found that administrative division, type of cooking fuel, child’s gender, maternal occupation, body mass index, birth interval, history of miscarriage, previous deaths of children, total number of under 5 children, mode of delivery, type of delivery, access to participation in decision making, paternal education and occupation were significantly associated with perinatal deaths. Conclusion: The study highlights the importance of strengthening proper postnatal care services in the healthcare facilities. Alongside this, effort should also be stressed to ensure proper pregnancy care and to improve the socio-economic condition of the households to address the issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Resistance among bacterial infections is increasingly well-documented in high-income countries; however, relatively little is known about bacterial antimicrobial resistance in low-income countries, where the burden of infections is high. Methods: We prospectively screened all adult inpatients at a referral hospital in Rwanda for suspected infection for seven months. Blood, urine, wound and sputum samples were cultured and tested for antibiotic susceptibility. We examined factors associated with resistance and compared hospital outcomes for participants with and without resistant isolates. Results: We screened 19,178 patient-days, and enrolled 647 unique participants with suspected infection. We obtained 942 culture specimens, of which 357 were culture-positive specimens. Of these positive specimens, 155 (43.4%) were wound, 83 (23.2%) urine, 64 (17.9%) blood, and 55 (15.4%) sputum. Gram-negative bacteria comprised 323 (88.7%) of all isolates. Of 241 Gram-negative isolates tested for ceftriaxone, 183 (75.9%) were resistant. Of 92 Gram-negative isolates tested for the extended spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) positive phenotype, 66 (71.7%) were ESBL positive phenotype. Transfer from another facility, recent surgery or antibiotic exposure, and hospital-acquired infection were each associated with resistance. Mortality was 19.6% for all enrolled participants. Conclusions: This is the first published prospective hospital-wide antibiogram of multiple specimen types from East Africa with ESBL testing. Our study suggests that low-resource settings with limited and inconsistent access to the full range of antibiotic classes may bear the highest burden of resistant infections. Hospital-acquired infections and recent antibiotic exposure are associated with a high proportion of resistant infections. Efforts to slow the development of resistance and supply effective antibiotics are urgently needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]