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This paper investigates the effect of under-five mortality, child support grant (CSG) coverage and the rollout of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on fertility in South Africa. The study employs the quality-quantity trade-off framework to analyse the direct and indirect factors affecting fertility using the two stage least squares fixed effects instrumental variable approach. The analysis uses balanced panel data covering nine provinces from 2001–2016. This period was characterised by significant increases in the child support grant coverage and ART coverage. Furthermore, this period was characterised by a significant decline in the under-five mortality rate. We find no evidence to support the hypothesis that increases in the CSG coverage are associated with an increase in fertility. This finding aligns with previous literature suggesting that there are no perverse incentives for childbearing associated with the child support grant. On the other hand, results indicate that an increase in ART coverage is associated with an increase in fertility. Results also show that a decrease in under-five mortality is associated with a decline in fertility over the sample period. HIV prevalence, education, real GDP per capita, marriage prevalence and contraceptive prevalence are also important determinants of fertility in South Africa. Although the scale up of ART has improved health outcomes, it also appears to have increased fertility in HIV-positive women. The ART programme should therefore be linked with further family planning initiatives to minimise unintended pregnancies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) is an important cause of mortality in young children, especially in children living with HIV infection. Disparities in SARI death in children aged <5 years exist in urban and rural areas. Objective: To compare the factors associated with in-hospital death among children aged <5 years hospitalized with SARI in an urban vs. a rural setting in South Africa from 2009–2013. Methods: Data were collected from hospitalized children with SARI in one urban and two rural sentinel surveillance hospitals. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were tested for ten respiratory viruses and blood for pneumococcal DNA using polymerase chain reaction. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify patient and clinical characteristics associated with in-hospital death. Results: From 2009 through 2013, 5,297 children aged <5 years with SARI-associated hospital admission were enrolled; 3,811 (72%) in the urban and 1,486 (28%) in the rural hospitals. In-hospital case-fatality proportion (CFP) was higher in the rural hospitals (6.9%) than the urban hospital (1.3%, p<0.001), and among HIV-infected than the HIV-uninfected children (9.6% vs. 1.6%, p<0.001). In the urban hospital, HIV infection (odds ratio (OR):11.4, 95% confidence interval (CI):5.4–24.1) and presence of any other underlying illness (OR: 3.0, 95% CI: 1.0–9.2) were the only factors independently associated with death. In the rural hospitals, HIV infection (OR: 4.1, 95% CI: 2.3–7.1) and age <1 year (OR: 3.7, 95% CI: 1.9–7.2) were independently associated with death, whereas duration of hospitalization ≥5 days (OR: 0.5, 95% CI: 0.3–0.8) and any respiratory virus detection (OR: 0.4, 95% CI: 0.3–0.8) were negatively associated with death. Conclusion: We found that the case-fatality proportion was substantially higher among children admitted to rural hospitals and HIV infected children with SARI in South Africa. While efforts to prevent and treat HIV infections in children may reduce SARI deaths, further efforts to address health care inequality in rural populations are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previous research on the association between maternal HIV status and child mortality in sub–Saharan Africa was published between 2005–2011. Findings from these studies showed a higher child mortality risk among children born to HIV–positive mothers. While the population of women with disabilities is growing in developing countries, we found no research that examined the association between maternal disability in HIV–positive mothers, and child mortality in sub–Saharan Africa. This study examined the potential compounding effect of maternal disability and HIV status on child mortality in South Africa. Methods: We analyzed data for women age 15–49 years from South Africa, using the nationally representative 2016 South Africa Demographic and Health Survey. We estimated unadjusted and adjusted risk ratios of child mortality indicators by maternal disability and maternal HIV using modified Poisson regressions. Results: Children born to disabled mothers compared to their peers born to non-disabled mothers were at a higher risk for neonatal mortality (RR = 1.80, 95% CI:1.31–2.49), infant mortality (RR = 1.69, 95% CI:1.19–2.41), and under-five mortality (RR = 1.78, 95% CI:1.05–3.01). The joint risk of maternal disability and HIV-positive status on the selected child mortality indicators is compounded such that it is more than the sum of the risks from maternal disability or maternal HIV-positive status alone (RR = 3.97 vs. joint RR = 3.67 for neonatal mortality; RR = 3.57 vs. joint RR = 3.25 for infant mortality; RR = 6.44 vs. joint RR = 3.75 for under-five mortality). Conclusions: The findings suggest that children born to HIV-positive women with disabilities are at an exceptionally high risk of premature mortality. Established inequalities faced by women with disabilities may account for this increased risk. Given that maternal HIV and disability amplify each other's impact on child mortality, addressing disabled women's HIV-related needs and understanding the pathways and mechanisms contributing to these disparities is crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Data on the national-level impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction on mortality are lacking from Africa. PCV was introduced in South Africa in 2009. We estimated the impact of PCV introduction on all-cause pneumonia mortality in South Africa, while controlling for changes in mortality due to other interventions.Methods and Findings: We used national death registration data in South Africa from 1999 to 2016 to assess the impact of PCV introduction on all-cause pneumonia mortality in all ages, with the exclusion of infants aged <1 month. We created a composite (synthetic) control using Bayesian variable selection of nondiarrheal, nonpneumonia, and nonpneumococcal deaths to estimate the number of expected all-cause pneumonia deaths in the absence of PCV introduction post 2009. We compared all-cause pneumonia deaths from the death registry to the expected deaths in 2012 to 2016. We also estimated the number of prevented deaths during 2009 to 2016. Of the 9,324,638 deaths reported in South Africa from 1999 to 2016, 12·6% were pneumonia-related. Compared to number of deaths expected, we estimated a 33% (95% credible interval (CrI) 26% to 43%), 23% (95%CrI 17% to 29%), 25% (95%CrI 19% to 32%), and 23% (95%CrI 11% to 32%) reduction in pneumonia mortality in children aged 1 to 11 months, 1 to 4 years, 5 to 7 years, and 8 to 18 years in 2012 to 2016, respectively. In total, an estimated 18,422 (95%CrI 12,388 to 26,978) pneumonia-related deaths were prevented from 2009 to 2016 in children aged <19 years. No declines were estimated observed among adults following PCV introduction. This study was mainly limited by coding errors in original data that could have led to a lower impact estimate, and unmeasured factors could also have confounded estimates.Conclusions: This study found that the introduction of PCV was associated with substantial reduction in all-cause pneumonia deaths in children aged 1 month to <19 years. The model predicted an effect of PCV in age groups who were eligible for vaccination (1 months to 4 years), and an indirect effect in those too old (8 to 18 years) to be vaccinated. These findings support sustaining pneumococcal vaccination to reduce pneumonia-related mortality in children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The effect of the period before a mother's death on child survival has been assessed in only a few studies. We conducted a comparative investigation of the effect of the timing of a mother's death on child survival up to age five years in rural South Africa. Methods: We used discrete time survival analysis on data from two HIV-endemic population surveillance sites (2000–2015) to estimate a child's risk of dying before and after their mother's death. We tested if this relationship varied between sites and by availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We assessed if related adults in the household altered the effect of a mother's death on child survival. Findings: 3,618 children died from 2000–2015. The probability of a child dying began to increase in the 7–11 months prior to the mother's death and increased markedly in the 3 months before (2000–2003 relative risk = 22.2, 95% CI = 14.2–34.6) and 3 months following her death (2000–2003 RR = 20.1; CI = 10.3–39.4). This increased risk pattern was evident at both sites. The pattern attenuated with ART availability but remained even with availability at both sites. The father and maternal grandmother in the household lowered children's mortality risk independent of the association between timing of mother and child mortality. Conclusions: The persistence of elevated mortality risk both before and after the mother's death for children of different ages suggests that absence of maternal care and abrupt breastfeeding cessation might be crucial risk factors. Formative research is needed to understand the circumstances for children when a mother is very ill or dies, and behavioral and other risk factors that increase both the mother and child's risk of dying. Identifying families when a mother is very ill and implementing training and support strategies for other members of the household are urgently needed to reduce preventable child mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In South Africa, 30.9% of children under five years with Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) died in 2018. We aimed to identify factors associated with mortality among children under five years hospitalized with SAM in Limpopo province, South Africa. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study including children under five years admitted with SAM from 2014 to 2018 in public hospitals of Limpopo province. We extracted socio-demographic and clinical data from hospital records. We used logistic regression to identify factors associated with mortality. Findings: We included 956 children, 50.2% (480/956) male and 49.8% (476/956) female. The median age was 13 months (inter quartile range: 9–19 months). The overall SAM mortality over the study period was 25.9% (248/956). The most common complications were diarrhea, 63.8% (610/956), and lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs), 42.4% (405/956). Factors associated with mortality included herbal medication use (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR): 2.2, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.4–3.5, p = 0.001), poor appetite (aOR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.4–5.2, p = 0.003), Mid-upper circumference (MUAC) <11.5 cm (aOR: 3.0, 95% CI: 1.9–4.7, p<0.001), lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) (aOR: 1.6, 95% CI: 1.2–2.0, p<0.001), anemia (aOR: 2.5, 95% CI: 1.1–5.3, p = 0.021), hypoglycemia (aOR: 12.4, 95% CI: 7.1–21.8, p<0.001) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (aOR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.6–3.3, p<0.001). Interpretation: Herbal medication use, poor appetite, LRTIs, anemia, hypoglycemia, and HIV infection were associated with mortality among children with SAM. These factors should guide management of children with SAM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reflecting on under-five mortality, Peter Byass and colleagues consider how some countries may fail to meet millennium development goal targets despite making considerable advances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Family planning contributes significantly to the prevention of maternal and child mortality. However, many women still do not use modern contraception and the numbers of unintended pregnancies, abortions and subsequent deaths are high. In this paper, we estimate the service delivery costs of scaling up modern contraception, and the potential impact on maternal, newborn and child survival in South Africa. Methods: The Family Planning model in Spectrum was used to project the impact of modern contraception on pregnancies, abortions and births in South Africa (2015-2030). The contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) was increased annually by 0.68 percentage points. The Lives Saved Tool was used to estimate maternal and child deaths, with coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions increasing by 5% annually. A scenario analysis was done to test impacts when: the change in CPR was 0.1% annually; and intervention coverage increased linearly to 99% in 2030. Results: If CPR increased by 0.68% annually, the number of pregnancies would reduce from 1.3 million in 2014 to one million in 2030. Unintended pregnancies, abortions and births decrease by approximately 20%. Family planning can avert approximately 7,000 newborn and child and 600 maternal deaths. The total annual costs of providing modern contraception in 2030 are estimated to be US$33 million and the cost per user of modern contraception is US$7 per year. The incremental cost per life year gained is US$40 for children and US$1,000 for mothers. Conclusion: Maternal and child mortality remain high in South Africa, and scaling up family planning together with optimal maternal, newborn and child care is crucial. A huge impact can be made on maternal and child mortality, with a minimal investment per user of modern contraception. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Half of under-5 deaths in South Africa occur at home, however the reasons remain poorly described and data on the care pathways during fatal childhood illness is limited. This study aimed to better describe care-seeking behavior in fatal childhood illness and to assess barriers to healthcare and modifiable factors that contribute to under-5 deaths in rural South Africa., Methods: We conducted a social autopsy study on all under-5 deaths in two rural South African health and demographic surveillance system sites. Descriptive analyses based on the Pathways to Survival Framework were used to characterise how caregivers move through the stages of seeking and providing care for children during their final illness and to identify modifiable factors that contributed to death., Findings: Of 53 deaths, 40% occurred outside health facilities. Rates of antenatal and perinatal preventative care-seeking were high: over 70% of mothers had tested for HIV, 93% received professional assistance during delivery and 79% of children were reportedly immunised appropriately for age. Of the 48 deaths tracked through the stages of the Pathways to Survival Framework, 10% died suddenly without any care, 23% received home care of whom 80% had signs of severe or possibly severe illness, and 85% sought or attempted to seek formal care outside the home. Although half of all children left the first facility alive, only 27% were referred for further care., Conclusions: Modifiable factors for preventing deaths during a child's final illness occur both inside and outside the home. The most important modifiable factors occurring inside the home relate to caregivers' recognition of illness and appreciation of urgency in response to the severity of the child's symptoms and signs. Outside the home, modifiable factors relate to inadequate referral and follow-up by health professionals. Further research should focus on identifying and overcoming barriers to referral., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Introduction: Despite global progress, there remains a disproportionate burden of under-five year old deaths in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where four out of five child deaths occur. Substantial progress has been made in improving sanitation, controlling communicable diseases and the spread of HIV in most parts of the world. However, significant strides to address some key risk factors related to under-five mortality are still needed in rural SSA if they are to attain relevant 2030 SDG targets. The aim of this study is to investigate the risk factors for under-five mortality in an HIV hyper-endemic area of rural South Africa, from 2000-2014. Some of the key risk factors investigated are, for example: household wealth, source of drinking water, distance to the national road and birth order., Methods: We conducted a statistical analysis of 759 births from a population-based cohort in rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, from 2000 to 2014. A Cox Proportional Hazards model was used to identify the risk factors and key socio-demographic correlates of under-five mortality leveraging the longitudinal structure of the population cohort., Results: Child mortality rates declined by 80 per cent from 2000 to 2014, from >140 per 1,000 persons in years 2001-2003 to 20 per 1,000 persons in the year 2014. The highest under-five mortality rate was recorded in 2002/2003, which decreased following the start of antiretroviral therapy rollout in 2003/4. The results indicated that under-five and infant mortality are significantly associated with a low wealth index of 1.49 (1.007-2.48) for under-fives and 3.03 (1.72-5.34) for infants. Children and infants with a lower wealth index had a significantly increased risk of mortality as compared to those with a high wealth index. Other significant factors included: source of household drinking water (borehole) 3.03 (1.72-5.34) for under-fives and 2.98 (1.62-5.49) for infants; having an HIV positive mother 4.22 (2.68-6.65) for under-fives and 3.26 (1.93-5.51) for infants, and period of death 9.13 (5.70-14.6) for under-fives and 1.28 (0.75-2.20) for infants. Wealth index had the largest population attributable fraction of 25.4 per cent., Conclusions: The research findings show a substantial overall reduction in under-five mortality since 2003. Unsafe household water sources and having an HIV-positive mother were associated with an increased risk of under-five mortality in this rural setting. The significant risk factors identified align well with the SDG 2030 targets for reducing child mortality, which include improved nutrition, sanitation, hygiene and reduced HIV infections. Current trajectories suggest that there is some hope for meeting the 2030 SGD targets in rural South Africa and the region if the identified significant risk factors are adequately addressed., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: There is evidence that a young child's risk of dying increases following the mother's death, but little is known about the risk when the mother becomes very ill prior to her death. We hypothesized that children would be more likely to die during the period several months before their mother's death, as well as for several months after her death. Therefore we investigated the relationship between young children's likelihood of dying and the timing of their mother's death and, in particular, the existence of a critical period of increased risk., Methods and Findings: Data from a health and socio-demographic surveillance system in rural South Africa were collected on children 0-5 y of age from 1 January 1994 to 31 December 2008. Discrete time survival analysis was used to estimate children's probability of dying before and after their mother's death, accounting for moderators. 1,244 children (3% of sample) died from 1994 to 2008. The probability of child death began to rise 6-11 mo prior to the mother's death and increased markedly during the 2 mo immediately before the month of her death (odds ratio [OR] 7.1 [95% CI 3.9-12.7]), in the month of her death (OR 12.6 [6.2-25.3]), and during the 2 mo following her death (OR 7.0 [3.2-15.6]). This increase in the probability of dying was more pronounced for children whose mothers died of AIDS or tuberculosis compared to other causes of death, but the pattern remained for causes unrelated to AIDS/tuberculosis. Infants aged 0-6 mo at the time of their mother's death were nine times more likely to die than children aged 2-5 y. The limitations of the study included the lack of knowledge about precisely when a very ill mother will die, a lack of information about child nutrition and care, and the diagnosis of AIDS deaths by verbal autopsy rather than serostatus., Conclusions: Young children in lower income settings are more likely to die not only after their mother's death but also in the months before, when she is seriously ill. Interventions are urgently needed to support families both when the mother becomes very ill and after her death. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.