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Introduction: The aim of this paper is to investigate what factors are associated to cardiovascular disease and what differences exists between Asians living in the UK (from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing) and the Asians living in India (from the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India). Methods: Logistic regression was used to investigate how demographic and physical performance factors were associated with cardiovascular disease using data from Wave 6 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and Wave 1 of the Longitudinal Study of Ageing in India, with the main variable of interest being country of residence, Asians in England or Asians in India. Results: A total of 83,997 participants were included in the analyses. In the primary analysis, 73,396 participants from LASI were compared to 171 Asians in ELSA. After adjusting for age, blood pressure, resting heart rate, sex, waist circumference, gait, handgrip strength and standing balance, there was a statistically significant difference for the outcome of CVD between Whites ELSA (reference) and the participants of LASI (odds ratio = 0.77; 95% confidence interval = 0.60 to 0.99). There were no significant differences in CVD between the LASI participants, Asian ELSA, and the Non-White but not Asian ELSA groups. Discussion: No difference was found between Asians that live in India compared to ethnic minorities living in England, including Asians, after adjusting for confounders, but was found between Whites in ELSA compared to LASI participants. A key limitation was the massive disparity in sample sizes between the ELSA subgroups and LASI. Further work is required where comparable sample sizes and longitudinal analyses allow trends to be identified and to investigate the factors associated with the difference in CVD between two similar ethnicities living in distinct locations. Conclusion: After adjusting for risk factors, there was no difference in CVD between localised Asians and the ethnic minorities in the UK, but there was a difference between the majority ethnicities in the respective countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prevalence of dyslexia identification has increased significantly over the last two decades. Yet there is debate over whether there are distinct biological and cognitive differences between those with literacy difficulties and the subgroup of people identified as dyslexic. This is the first paper that provides evidence for this ongoing debate by investigating the socio-demographic factors, outside biology and cognition, that predict whether a child is identified as dyslexic in the UK. Using secondary data from the UK's Millennium Cohort Study, this paper examines the socio-demographic factors that predict whether a child's teacher identifies them as dyslexic at age 11. Gender, season of birth, socio-economic class and parental income are found to be significant predictors of the dyslexia label. Therefore, factors seemingly unrelated to the clinical aspects of dyslexia influence whether a child is identified as dyslexic in England and Wales. This suggests that label may not be evenly distributed across a population; furthermore, it may also indicate that resources for support may not be fairly allocated. The findings further support the argument that a 'dyslexic sub-group' within poor readers is created due to the impact of environmental factors. The results from this national-scale study thus questions the reliability, validity and moral integrity of the allocation of the dyslexia label across current education systems in the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The population prevalence of multimorbidity (the existence of at least 2 or more long-term conditions [LTCs] in an individual) is increasing among young adults, particularly in minority ethnic groups and individuals living in socioeconomically deprived areas. In this study, we applied a data-driven approach to identify clusters of individuals who had an early onset multimorbidity in an ethnically and socioeconomically diverse population. We identified associations between clusters and a range of health outcomes. Methods and findings: Using linked primary and secondary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD (CPRD GOLD), we conducted a cross-sectional study of 837,869 individuals with early onset multimorbidity (aged between 16 and 39 years old when the second LTC was recorded) registered with an English general practice between 2010 and 2020. The study population included 777,906 people of White ethnicity (93%), 33,915 people of South Asian ethnicity (4%), and 26,048 people of Black African/Caribbean ethnicity (3%). A total of 204 LTCs were considered. Latent class analysis stratified by ethnicity identified 4 clusters of multimorbidity in White groups and 3 clusters in South Asian and Black groups. We found that early onset multimorbidity was more common among South Asian (59%, 33,915) and Black (56% 26,048) groups compared to the White population (42%, 777,906). Latent class analysis revealed physical and mental health conditions that were common across all ethnic groups (i.e., hypertension, depression, and painful conditions). However, each ethnic group also presented exclusive LTCs and different sociodemographic profiles: In White groups, the cluster with the highest rates/odds of the outcomes was predominantly male (54%, 44,150) and more socioeconomically deprived than the cluster with the lowest rates/odds of the outcomes. On the other hand, South Asian and Black groups were more socioeconomically deprived than White groups, with a consistent deprivation gradient across all multimorbidity clusters. At the end of the study, 4% (34,922) of the White early onset multimorbidity population had died compared to 2% of the South Asian and Black early onset multimorbidity populations (535 and 570, respectively); however, the latter groups died younger and lost more years of life. The 3 ethnic groups each displayed a cluster of individuals with increased rates of primary care consultations, hospitalisations, long-term prescribing, and odds of mortality. Study limitations include the exclusion of individuals with missing ethnicity information, the age of diagnosis not reflecting the actual age of onset, and the exclusion of people from Mixed, Chinese, and other ethnic groups due to insufficient power to investigate associations between multimorbidity and health-related outcomes in these groups. Conclusions: These findings emphasise the need to identify, prevent, and manage multimorbidity early in the life course. Our work provides additional insights into the excess burden of early onset multimorbidity in those from socioeconomically deprived and diverse groups who are disproportionately and more severely affected by multimorbidity and highlights the need to ensure healthcare improvements are equitable. Fabiola Eto and co-workers study variations in comorbidity, service use and health outcomes by ethnicity and socioeconomic position, among people aged 16-39 years. Author summary: Why was this study done?: Most studies of multimorbidity focus on older adults, and only a few have investigated multimorbidity in younger populations. The prevalence of multimorbidity is increasing among young adults, particularly in minority ethnic groups and individuals living in socioeconomically deprived areas. There is evidence showing that individuals with socioeconomic vulnerability experience poorer health outcomes, such as lower quality healthcare provision, premature death, and higher mortality rates. The association between early onset multimorbidity and poor health outcomes in ethnically and socially diverse populations in England remains underinvestigated. What did the researchers do and find?: We used primary and secondary healthcare electronic health records from 837,869 individuals of White, South Asian, and Black African/Caribbean ethnicity in England with early onset of multimorbidity who were registered with an English general practice between 2010 and 2020. We found that the early onset of multimorbidity was more common among minority ethnic groups (59% and 56%, in the South Asian and Black populations, respectively) than in the White population (42%) living in the UK. South Asians and Black individuals with early onset multimorbidity died earlier than White individuals with early onset multimorbidity (52 and 48 years old in the median, respectively, versus 61 years old). South Asian and Black groups were more socioeconomically deprived than White groups, with a consistent deprivation gradient across all multimorbidity clusters. In White groups, the cluster of individuals with the highest rates/odds of the outcomes was more socioeconomically deprived than the cluster with the lowest rates/odds of the outcomes. What do these findings mean?: Our findings emphasise the need to identify, prevent, and manage multimorbidity early in the life course. Our work highlights the need to ensure that public health policies are equitable and reach those living in socioeconomic deprivation and minority ethnic groups who are disproportionately and more severely affected by early onset multimorbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Higher education students' mental health has been a growing concern in recent years even before the COVID-19 pandemic. The stresses and restrictions associated with the pandemic have put university students at greater risk of developing mental health issues, which may significantly impair their academic success, social interactions and their future career and personal opportunities. This paper aimed to understand the mental health status of University students at an early stage in the pandemic and to investigate factors associated with higher levels of distress. An online survey including demographics, lifestyle/living situations, brief mental well-being history, questions relating to COVID-19 and standardised measures of depression, anxiety, resilience and quality of life was completed by 1173 students at one University in the North of England. We found high levels of anxiety and depression, with more than 50% experiencing levels above the clinical cut offs, and females scoring significantly higher than males. The survey also suggested relatively low levels of resilience which we attribute to restrictions and isolation which reduced the opportunities to engage in helpful coping strategies and activities rather than enduring personality characteristics. Higher levels of distress were associated with lower levels of exercising, higher levels of tobacco use, and a number of life events associated with the pandemic and lockdown, such as cancelled events, worsening in personal relationships and financial concerns. We discuss the importance of longer-term monitoring and mental health support for university students. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of accounting for social and behavioural processes when studying public health emergencies has been well-recognised. For infectious disease outbreaks in particular, several methods of incorporating individual behaviour have been put forward, but very few are based on established psychological frameworks. In this paper, we develop a decision framework based on the COM-B model of behaviour change to investigate the impact of individual decision-making on public health outcomes. We demonstrate the application of our decision framework in a proof-of-concept case study based on the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic in the UK. The National Pandemic Flu Service (NPFS) was set up in England during the pandemic as a means to provide antiviral (AV) treatment to clinically ill patients with influenza-like illness, via telephone calls or internet screening, thereby averting the need to see a doctor. The evaluated patients based on a clinical algorithm and authorised AV drugs for collection via community collection points. We applied our behavioural framework to evaluate the influence of human behaviour on AV collection rates, and subsequently to identify interventions that could help improve AV collection rates. Our model was validated against empirically collected pandemic data from 2009 in the UK. We also performed a sensitivity analysis to identify potentially effective interventions by varying model parameters. Using our behavioural framework in a proof-of-concept case study, we found that interventions geared towards increasing people's 'Capability' and 'Opportunity' are likely to result in increased AV collection, potentially resulting in fewer influenza-related hospitalisations and deaths. We note that important behavioural data from public health emergencies are largely scarce. Insights obtained from models such as ours can, not only be very useful in designing healthcare interventions, but also inform future data collection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Patient and public involvement (PPI) is a requirement for UK health and social care research funding. Evidence for how best to implement PPI in research programmes, such as National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaborations for Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRCs), remains limited. This paper reports findings from an action research (AR) project called IMPRESS, which aims to strengthen PPI within CLAHRC East of England (EoE). IMPRESS combines AR with Normalisation Process Theory (NPT) to explore PPI within diverse case study projects, identifying actions to implement, test and refine to further embed PPI. Methods: We purposively selected CLAHRC EoE case study projects for in-depth analysis of PPI using NPT. Data were generated from project PPI documentation, semi-structured qualitative interviews with researchers and PPI contributors and focus groups. Transcripts and documents were subjected to abductive thematic analysis and triangulation within case. Systematic across case comparison of themes was undertaken with findings and implications refined through stakeholder consultation. Results: We interviewed 24 researchers and 13 PPI contributors and analysed 28 documents from 10 case studies. Three focus groups were held: two with researchers (n = 4 and n = 6) and one with PPI contributors (n = 5). Findings detail to what extent projects made sense of PPI, bought in to PPI, operationalised PPI and appraised it, thus identifying barriers and enablers to fully embedded PPI. Conclusion: Combining NPT with AR allows us to assess the embeddedness of PPI within projects and programme, to inform specific local action and report broader conceptual lessons for PPI knowledge and practice informing the development of an action framework for embedding PPI in research programmes. To embed PPI within similar programmes teams, professionals, disciplines and institutions should be recognised as variably networked into existing PPI support. Further focus and research is needed on sharing PPI learning and supporting innovation in PPI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Despite a decline in Sudden Unexpected Death in Infancy in the UK since 2004, inequalities have widened with higher rates among families from deprived backgrounds and those known to child protection services. Almost all cases involve parents who had engaged in unsafe sleeping practices despite awareness of safer sleeping advice. Objective: To understand the perspectives surrounding safer sleep of families supported by statutory child protection agencies, and use behavior change theory to inform how approaches to providing safer sleep advice to these families may be modified. Participants and setting: We interviewed 14 mothers, 2 fathers and one grandmother, who had recent contact with child protection services in northeast England. Methods: In-depth, semi-structured interviews, with purposive sampling. The COM-B model (Capability, Opportunity, and Motivation) structured our analysis. Results: Parents described how anxiety, sleep deprivation, settling infants, illness, and a desire to bond with infants influence their decision making about sleep. Parents valued credible, trusted sources and understanding how safer sleep practices protect infants. Responses to questions about 'out of routine' situations suggested social pressures surrounding routines and 'good parenting' may preclude parents from acknowledging risks and planning for these situations. Conclusion: Open conversations tailored to the needs of families, focused upon understanding why and when parent(s) do or do not follow safer sleep guidance seem a promising way of promoting safer sleep practices. Safer sleep discussions with these families are likely to be best delivered as part of wider infant care by professionals who have an established and continuing trusting relationship with parents. While advice and information should be provided by any professional in contact with the family with the necessary expertise, sensitive conversations around sleeping practices, particularly co-sleeping, may be more easily facilitated by professionals where the statutory responsibility for safeguarding is less apparent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current research ethics frameworks were developed on the footprint of biomedical, experimental research and present several pitfalls when applied to non-experimental social sciences. This work explores how the normative principles underpinning policy and regulatory frameworks of research ethics and the related operational processes work in practice in the context of collaborative health and social care research. The work was organised in three phases. First, UK research ethics policy documents were analysed thematically, with themes further organised under the categories of 'Principles' and 'Processes'. Next, we conducted a scoping review of articles about research ethics in the context of collaborative health and social care research, published in English between 2010 and 2022. We then held an exploratory focus group with ten academic researchers with relevant experience to gather their views on how the research ethics system works in practice in England (UK). The thematic framework developed in the first phase supported the analysis of the articles included in the scoping review and of focus group data. The analysis of policy documents identified twelve themes. All were associated to both a principle and a related operational process. The scoping review identified 31 articles. Across these, some themes were barely acknowledged (e.g., Compliance with legislation). Other themes were extensively covered (e.g., The working of Research Ethics Committees), often to discuss issues and limitations in how, in practice, the research ethics system and its processes deal with collaborative research and to suggest options for improvement. Focus group data were largely consistent with the findings of the scoping review. This work provides evidence of the poor alignment between how the research ethics system is normatively expected to work and how it works in practice and offers options that could make research ethics more fit for purpose when addressing collaborative research in health and social care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OptiBreech collaborative care is a multi-disciplinary care pathway for breech presentation at term, with continuity from a breech specialist midwife, including where chosen, for vaginal breech birth (VBB). Pilot randomised trial using unblinded 1:1 parallel group allocation to OptiBreech versus standard care, within a cohort. Participants were women with a breech-presenting fetus > 33 weeks, at four sites in England, January–June 2022. A two-stage consent process was used. Participants consented to undergo random selection to be offered a 'new care process', with a choice to accept it, or not. Primary objectives were to identify recruitment, acceptance, and attrition rates. Randomisation procedures and potential primary outcomes for a substantive study were also feasibility-tested. 68 women were randomised between January–June 2022. The consent process was acceptable to participants, but randomisation was unacceptable to women who specifically sought OptiBreech care. Two women withdrew due to concerns about sharing personal information. More women planned a VBB when randomised to OptiBreech Care (23.5% vs 0, p =.002, 95% CI = 9.3%,37.8%). Women randomised to OptiBreech care had: lower rates of cephalic presentation at birth (38.2% vs 54.5%), higher rates of vaginal birth (32.4% vs 24.2%), lower rates of in-labour caesarean birth (20.6% vs 36.4%), lower rates of neonatal intensive care (5.9% vs 9.1%), and lower rates of severe neonatal morbidity (2.9% vs 9.1%). Randomisation was stopped on the advice of the steering committee before the planned sample of 104, as lack of access to VBB within standard care prohibited comparison of outcomes. Demand for VBB is sufficient for a cohort study, but comparison of outcomes by 1:1 randomisation is not feasible. OptiBreech care would be best evaluated using stepped wedge cluster randomisation. Funded by the United Kingdom National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR300582). Clinical trial registration: ISRCTN 14521381. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In England (UK), at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic the public were required to reduce their physical contacts to slow the spread of COVID-19. We investigated the factors associated with children having: 1) close contact with family members from outside their household ('non-adherent behaviour'); and 2) low well-being (Revised Child Anxiety and Depression Scale). We conducted an online cross-sectional survey, completed at any location of the participant's choice between 8 and 11 June 2020 in parents (n = 2,010) who were aged eighteen years or over and had a school-aged child (4–18 years old). Parents reported that 15% (n = 309) of children had non-adherent contact and that 26% (n = 519) had low well-being. We used a series of binary logistic regressions to investigate associations between outcomes and child and parent characteristics. Children had higher odds of having non-household contact when they had special educational needs [adjusted odds ratio, 2.19 (95% CI, 1.47 to 3.27)], lower well-being [2.65 (95% CI, 2.03 to 3.46)], were vulnerable to COVID-19 [2.17 (95% CI, 1.45 to 3.25)], lived with someone who was over 70 years old [2.56 (95% CI, 1.55 to 4.24)] and their parent had low well-being [1.94 (95% CI, 1.45 to 2.58)]. Children had higher odds of lower well-being when they had special educational needs [4.13 (95% CI, 2.90 to 5.87)], were vulnerable to COVID-19 [3.06 (95% CI, 2.15 to 4.36)], lived with someone else who was vulnerable to COVID-19 [2.08 (95% CI, 1.64 to 2.64)], or lived with someone who was over 70 years old [2.41 (95% CI, 1.51 to 3.83)]. Many children came into contact with non-household family members, mainly for childcare. Factors relating to COVID-19, children's well-being and education were also important. If school closures are needed in future, addressing these issues may help reduce contact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To provide quantitative evidence for systematically prioritising individuals for full formal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment using primary care records with a novel tool (eHEART) with age- and sex- specific risk thresholds. Methods and analysis: eHEART was derived using landmark Cox models for incident CVD with repeated measures of conventional CVD risk predictors in 1,642,498 individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Using 119,137 individuals from UK Biobank, we modelled the implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy using eHEART with age- and sex-specific prioritisation thresholds corresponding to 5% false negative rates to prioritise adults aged 40–69 years in a population in England for invitation to a formal CVD risk assessment. Results: Formal CVD risk assessment on all adults would identify 76% and 49% of future CVD events amongst men and women respectively, and 93 (95% CI: 90, 95) men and 279 (95% CI: 259, 297) women would need to be screened (NNS) to prevent one CVD event. In contrast, if eHEART was first used to prioritise individuals for formal CVD risk assessment, we would identify 73% and 47% of future events amongst men and women respectively, and a NNS of 75 (95% CI: 72, 77) men and 162 (95% CI: 150, 172) women. Replacing the age- and sex-specific prioritisation thresholds with a 10% threshold identify around 10% less events. Conclusions: The use of prioritisation tools with age- and sex-specific thresholds could lead to more efficient CVD assessment programmes with only small reductions in effectiveness at preventing new CVD events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In May 2022, a cluster of mpox cases were detected in the UK that could not be traced to recent travel history from an endemic region. Over the coming months, the outbreak grew, with over 3000 total cases reported in the UK, and similar outbreaks occurring worldwide. These outbreaks appeared linked to sexual contact networks between gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, local health systems were strained, and therefore effective surveillance for mpox was essential for managing public health policy. However, the mpox outbreak in the UK was characterised by substantial delays in the reporting of the symptom onset date and specimen collection date for confirmed positive cases. These delays led to substantial backfilling in the epidemic curve, making it challenging to interpret the epidemic trajectory in real-time. Many nowcasting models exist to tackle this challenge in epidemiological data, but these lacked sufficient flexibility. We have developed a nowcasting model using generalised additive models that makes novel use of individual-level patient data to correct the mpox epidemic curve in England. The aim of this model is to correct for backfilling in the epidemic curve and provide real-time characteristics of the state of the epidemic, including the real-time growth rate. This model benefited from close collaboration with individuals involved in collecting and processing the data, enabling temporal changes in the reporting structure to be built into the model, which improved the robustness of the nowcasts generated. The resulting model accurately captured the true shape of the epidemic curve in real time. Author summary: During 2022, outbreaks of mpox, the disease caused by the monkeypox virus, occurred simultaneously in multiple non-endemic countries, including England. These outbreaks were distinct from historic outbreaks with a majority of cases in gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men and in individuals without recent travel histories to endemic countries. To inform public health policy, understanding the number of new cases and growth rate of the outbreak in real-time is essential. However, the outbreak was characterised by long delays from individuals developing symptoms (or getting a test) and being reported as a positive case. This creates a biased picture of the outbreak, where observed real-time cases underestimates the true extent of the outbreak. We developed a mathematical model that accounts for these reporting delays to estimate the true shape of the epidemic curve in real-time. The modelled outputs are able to accurately capture the true shape of the epidemic, and provide improved real-time insight over the raw data. This model was used continuously throughout the outbreak response in the UK to provide insight to the incident management team at the UK Health Security Agency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical and statistical models can be used to make predictions of how epidemics may progress in the near future and form a central part of outbreak mitigation and control. Renewal equation based models allow inference of epidemiological parameters from historical data and forecast future epidemic dynamics without requiring complex mechanistic assumptions. However, these models typically ignore interaction between age groups, partly due to challenges in parameterising a time varying interaction matrix. Social contact data collected regularly during the COVID-19 epidemic provide a means to inform interaction between age groups in real-time. We developed an age-specific forecasting framework and applied it to two age-stratified time-series: incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, estimated from a national infection and antibody prevalence survey; and, reported cases according to the UK national COVID-19 dashboard. Jointly fitting our model to social contact data from the CoMix study, we inferred a time-varying next generation matrix which we used to project infections and cases in the four weeks following each of 29 forecast dates between October 2020 and November 2021. We evaluated the forecasts using proper scoring rules and compared performance with three other models with alternative data and specifications alongside two naive baseline models. Overall, incorporating age interaction improved forecasts of infections and the CoMix-data-informed model was the best performing model at time horizons between two and four weeks. However, this was not true when forecasting cases. We found that age group interaction was most important for predicting cases in children and older adults. The contact-data-informed models performed best during the winter months of 2020–2021, but performed comparatively poorly in other periods. We highlight challenges regarding the incorporation of contact data in forecasting and offer proposals as to how to extend and adapt our approach, which may lead to more successful forecasts in future. Author summary: Short term epidemic forecasts help policy makers to plan and implement response activities. It can be useful to have such forecasts separately for different age groups, in order to reflect potential differences in transmission and incidence of infection between age groups as well as differences in risk of severe disease or death. A key challenge in developing age-specific models is understanding how different age-groups interact. We used data collected during a large-scale weekly survey of social contacts in the UK to inform this interaction in a model for short-term forecasts of COVID-19. To assess whether allowing interaction between age-groups and the use of contact data improved forecasts, we compared our forecasts to those from a set of models that either didn't use current contact data or treated each age group as a separate population. We found that including timely contact data improved predictions when forecasting two to four weeks into the future, but this improvement was not consistent throughout the epidemic. The best improvement was measured during a long national "lockdown". We also found that inclusion of age-group interaction and use of contact data were most important when forecasting infections in older adults and young children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To explore cancer survivors' experiences of living with chronic pain after curative cancer treatment in England, UK. Methods: A qualitative study using telephone interviews with adult cancer survivors experiencing chronic pain after curative cancer treatment. Interview data was analysed using a reflexive thematic approach [1–3]. Findings: Nineteen participants: 14 female, 5 male, mean age 62.4 years, 1.5–48 years since cancer diagnosis, eight tumour groups represented. Six participants (31.6%) developed chronic pain more than ten years after completing cancer treatment (range 0–25 years). Five themes were generated which highlighted the experience of chronic pain after cancer treatment for cancer survivors: 1) 'Hear me... believe me.... Please'. Survivors felt that they had not been listened to when they tried to talk about their chronic pain after cancer treatment, nor at times, believed. 2) 'Expectation versus reality'. Survivors had anticipated returning to pre cancer quality of life yet living in chronic pain prevented them from doing so. 3) 'They don't understand.... We don't understand'. Cancer survivors did not feel informed or prepared for the risk or reality of chronic pain after cancer treatment and this compounded the difficulties of coping with and managing their pain. They felt health care professionals lacked knowledge and understanding of chronic pain after cancer. 4) 'Negotiating the maze'. Cancer survivors encountered unclear and limited pathways for support, often bouncing from one support team to another. Identifying and accessing services was a challenge, and the responsibility of this was often left to the survivor. 5) 'Validate my pain, validate me'. Palpable relief and benefit was felt when health care professionals diagnosed and acknowledged their chronic pain after cancer treatment. Conclusions: Cancer survivors can feel ill prepared for the risk of chronic pain after cancer treatment and can experience challenges accessing support from healthcare professionals and clinical services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Public health provision in England is undergoing dramatic changes. Currently established partnerships are thus likely to be significantly disrupted by the radical reforms outlined in the Public Health White Paper. We therefore explored the process of partnership working in public health, in order to better understand the potential opportunities and threats associated with the proposed changes. Methodology/Principal Findings: 70 participants took part in an in-depth qualitative study involving 40 semi-structured interviews and three focus group discussions. Participants were senior and middle grade public health decision makers working in Primary Care Trusts, Local Authorities, Department of Health, academia, General Practice and Hospital Trusts and the third sector in England. Despite mature arrangements for partnership working in many areas, and much support for joint working in principle, many important barriers exist. These include cultural issues such as a lack of shared values and language, the inherent complexity of intersectoral collaboration for public health, and macro issues including political and resource constraints. There is particular uncertainty and anxiety about the future of joint working relating to the availability and distribution of scarce and diminishing financial resources. There is also the concern that existing effective collaborative networks may be completely disrupted as the proposed changes unfold. The extent to which the proposed reforms might mitigate or potentiate these issues remains unclear. However the threats currently remain more salient than opportunities. Conclusions: The current re-organisation of public health offers real opportunity to address some of the barriers to partnership working identified in this study. However, significant threats exist. These include the breakup of established networks, and the risk of cost cutting on effective public health interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

UK 'Lockdown' measures introduced in March 2020 aimed to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Although seeking healthcare was still permitted within restrictions, paediatric emergency department attendances reduced dramatically and led to concern over risks caused by delayed presentation. Our aim was to gain insight into healthcare decisions faced by parents during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and to understand if use of urgent healthcare, self-care, and information needs differed during lockdown as well as how parents perceived risks of COVID-19. We undertook qualitative telephone interviews with a purposive sample of parents living in the North East of England recruited through online advertising. We used a semi-structured interview schedule to explore past and current healthcare use, perceptions of risk and the impact of the pandemic on healthcare decisions. Interviews were transcribed and analysed using Thematic Analysis. Three major themes were identified which concerned (i) how parents made sense of risks posed to, and by their children, (ii) understanding information regarding health services and (iii) attempting to make the right decision. These themes contribute to the understanding of the initial impact of COVID-19 and associated restrictions on parental decisions about urgent healthcare for children. These findings are important to consider when planning for potential future public health emergencies but also in the wider context of encouraging appropriate use of urgent healthcare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite undeniable hardship, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic also saw an outpour of community solidarity and mutual aid towards those in need. This study explored why people participated in mutual aid during the pandemic as well as the factors that contributed to continued involvement and/or its decline. We conducted remote interviews with 17 people in South-east England who had been involved in volunteering and local community mutual aid support groups during the first UK lockdown from March to May 2020. Using thematic analysis, we identified two themes: 1) The emergence of social groups and their psychosocial effects, and 2) Enduring connections and barriers to continued participation. Participants often reported an emergent shared identity, preferring the localised nature of these groups and the associated mutual nature of support. They also reported intentions to continue providing such support, should the need arise again, and any barriers to continued involvement in mutual aid were better explained by structural and systemic issues, rather than individual motivational factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Medication errors are an important cause of morbidity and mortality. The pharmacist-led IT-based intervention to reduce clinically important medication errors (PINCER) has demonstrated improvements in primary care medication safety, and whilst now the subject of national roll-out its optimal and sustainable use across health contexts has not been fully explored. As part of a qualitative evaluation we aimed to identify factors influencing successful adoption, embedding and sustainable use of PINCER across primary care settings in England, UK. Methods: Semi-structured face-to-face or telephone interviews, including follow-up interviews and an online survey were conducted with professionals knowledgeable of PINCER. Interview recruitment targeted four early adopter regions; the survey was distributed nationally. Initial data analysis was inductive, followed by analysis using a coding framework. A deductive matrix approach was taken to map the framework to the Normalisation Process Theory (NPT). Themes were then identified. Results: Fifty participants were interviewed, 18 participated in a follow-up interview. Eighty-one general practices and three Clinical Commissioning Groups completed the survey. Four themes were identified and interpreted within the relevant NPT construct: Awareness & Perceptions (Coherence), Receptivity to PINCER (Cognitive Participation), Engagement [Collective Action] and Reflections & Adaptations (Reflexive Monitoring). Variability was identified in how PINCER awareness was raised and how staff worked to operationalise the intervention. Facilitators for use included stakeholder investment, favourable evidence, inclusion in policy, incentives, fit with individual and organisational goals and positive experiences. Barriers included lack of understanding, capacity concerns, operational difficulties and the impact of COVID-19. System changes such as adding alerts on clinical systems were indicative of embedding and continued use. Conclusions: The NPT helped understand motives behind engagement and the barriers and facilitators towards sustainable use. Optimising troubleshooting support and encouraging establishments to adopt an inclusive approach to intervention adoption and utilisation could help accelerate uptake and help establish ongoing sustainable use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The menstrual needs of girls and women are important to health, education, and well-being. Unmet need and harm from poor menstrual health in low-and- middle-income countries have been documented, but with little empirical research undertaken in high income countries. Continuing austerity in the UK suggests menstruators are likely more vulnerable to 'period poverty' than previously, with the COVID-19 pandemic assumed to exacerbate the situation. Aim: To explore the menstrual experiences and perceptions of women in the UK who are living under circumstances of deprivation, alongside views of staff working in organisations supporting these women, to understand whether women's menstrual needs are met. Methods: A qualitative study was conducted in an inner-city in NW England. Three focus group discussions and 14 in-depth interviews were conducted across three study sites supporting impoverished women. Data was analysed thematically. Results: Themes were: reflections on menstruation; affordability of products; access to public facilities; organisational support; potential solutions. Many women perceived menstruation as a burden in three aspects: physical discomfort and pain; psychological anxiety; and shame and stigma. Managing menstruation was difficult due to cost relative to low incomes, with food, heating and lighting prioritised, leaving women improvising with materials or wearing products for longer than desired. Most suggested that products should be free, often remarking if men required similar items this would happen. Most women were unaware supporting organisations provided free products. Staff felt the small range of products offered did not meet client needs and were ill-prepared to have conversations on products and clients' menstrual needs. Conclusion: Impoverished women lack the necessary resources to manage their menses well which negatively impacts their health and brings stress, embarrassment, and shame. Support, including access to free products, is needed at both local and national level to help impoverished women manage their menstrual hygiene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent studies indicate that vitamin D supplementation may decrease respiratory tract infections, but the association between vitamin D and COVID-19 is still unclear. Objective: To explore the association between vitamin D status and infections, hospitalisation, and mortality due to COVID-19. Methods: We used UK Biobank, a nationwide cohort of 500,000 individuals aged between 40 and 69 years at recruitment between 2006 and 2010. We included people with at least one serum vitamin D test, living in England with linked primary care and inpatient records. The primary exposure was serum vitamin D status measured at recruitment, defined as deficiency at <25 nmol/L, insufficiency at 25–49 nmol/L and sufficiency at ≥ 50 nmol/L. Secondary exposures were self-reported or prescribed vitamin D supplements. The primary outcome was laboratory-confirmed or clinically diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infections. The secondary outcomes included hospitalisation and mortality due to COVID-19. We used multivariable Cox regression models stratified by summertime months and non-summertime months, adjusting for demographic factors and underlying comorbidities. Results: We included 307,512 participants (54.9% female, 55.9% over 70 years old) in our analysis. During summertime months, weak evidence existed that the vitamin D deficiency group had a lower hazard of being diagnosed with COVID-19 (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.77–0.95). During non-summertime, the vitamin D deficiency group had a higher hazard of COVID-19 compared with the vitamin D sufficient group (HR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.01–1.30). No evidence was found that vitamin D deficiency or insufficiency was associated with either hospitalisation or mortality due to COVID-19 in any time strata. Conclusion: We found no evidence of an association between historical vitamin D status and hospitalisation or mortality due to COVID-19, along with inconsistent results for any association between vitamin D and diagnosis of COVID-19. However, studies using more recent vitamin D measurements and systematic COVID-19 testing are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Inter-organisational collaborations (IOCs) in healthcare have been viewed as an effective approach to performance improvement. However, there remain gaps in our understanding of what helps IOCs function, as well as how and why contextual elements affect their implementation. A realist review of evidence drawing on 86 sources has sought to elicit and refine context-mechanism-outcome configurations (CMOCs) to understand and refine these phenomena, yet further understanding can be gained from interviewing those involved in developing IOCs. Methods: We used a realist evaluation methodology, adopting prior realist synthesis findings as a theoretical framework that we sought to refine. We drew on 32 interviews taking place between January 2020 and May 2021 with 29 stakeholders comprising IOC case studies, service users, as well as regulatory perspectives in England. Using a retroductive analysis approach, we aimed to test CMOCs against these data to explore whether previously identified mechanisms, CMOCs, and causal links between them were affirmed, refuted, or revised, and refine our explanations of how and why interorganisational collaborations are successful. Results: Most of our prior CMOCs and their underlying mechanisms were supported in the interview findings with a diverse range of evidence. Leadership behaviours, including showing vulnerability and persuasiveness, acted to shape the core mechanisms of collaborative functioning. These included our prior mechanisms of trust, faith, and confidence, which were largely ratified with minor refinements. Action statements were formulated, translating theoretical findings into practical guidance. Conclusion: As the fifth stage in a larger project, our refined theory provides a comprehensive understanding of the causal chain leading to effective collaborative inter-organisational relationships. These findings and recommendations can support implementation of IOCs in the UK and elsewhere. Future research should translate these findings into further practical guidance for implementers, researchers, and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: People living with a long-term condition, such as chronic kidney disease (CKD), often suffer from multiple symptoms simultaneously, making symptom management challenging. This study aimed to identify symptom clusters in adults with CKD across treatment groups and investigate their association with people's ability to perform their usual activities. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of both cross-sectional and longitudinal data collected as part of a national service improvement programme in 14 kidney centres in England, UK. This data included symptom severity (17 items, POS-S Renal) and the extent to which people had problems performing their usual activities (single item, EQ-5D-5L). We categorised data by treatment group: haemodialysis (n = 1,462), transplantation (n = 866), peritoneal dialysis (n = 127), or CKD without kidney replacement therapy (CKD non-KRT; n = 684). We used principal component analysis to identify symptom clusters per treatment group, and proportional odds models to assess the association between clusters and usual activities. Results: Overall, clusters related to: lack of energy and mobility; gastrointestinal; skin; and mental health. Across groups, the 'lack of energy and mobility' clusters were associated with having problems with usual activities, with odds ratios (OR) ranging between 1.24 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21–1.57) for haemodialysis and 1.56 for peritoneal dialysis (95% CI, 1.28–1.90). This association was confirmed longitudinally in haemodialysis (n = 399) and transplant (n = 249) subgroups. Implications: Our findings suggest that healthcare professionals should consider routinely assessing symptoms in the 'lack of energy & mobility' cluster in all people with CKD, regardless of whether they volunteer this information; not addressing these symptoms is likely to be related to them having problems with performing usual activities. Future studies should explore why symptoms within clusters commonly co-occur and how they interrelate. This will inform the development of cluster-level symptom management interventions with enhanced potential to improve outcomes for people with CKD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the United Kingdom government imposed public health policies in England to reduce social contacts in hopes of curbing virus transmission. We conducted a repeated cross-sectional study to measure contact patterns weekly from March 2020 to March 2021 to estimate the impact of these policies, covering 3 national lockdowns interspersed by periods of less restrictive policies.Methods and Findings: The repeated cross-sectional survey data were collected using online surveys of representative samples of the UK population by age and gender. Survey participants were recruited by the online market research company Ipsos MORI through internet-based banner and social media ads and email campaigns. The participant data used for this analysis are restricted to those who reported living in England. We calculated the mean daily contacts reported using a (clustered) bootstrap and fitted a censored negative binomial model to estimate age-stratified contact matrices and estimate proportional changes to the basic reproduction number under controlled conditions using the change in contacts as a scaling factor. To put the findings in perspective, we discuss contact rates recorded throughout the year in terms of previously recorded rates from the POLYMOD study social contact study. The survey recorded 101,350 observations from 19,914 participants who reported 466,710 contacts over 53 weeks. We observed changes in social contact patterns in England over time and by participants' age, personal risk factors, and perception of risk. The mean reported contacts for adults 18 to 59 years old ranged between 2.39 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.20 to 2.60) contacts and 4.93 (95% CI 4.65 to 5.19) contacts during the study period. The mean contacts for school-age children (5 to 17 years old) ranged from 3.07 (95% CI 2.89 to 3.27) to 15.11 (95% CI 13.87 to 16.41). This demonstrates a sustained decrease in social contacts compared to a mean of 11.08 (95% CI 10.54 to 11.57) contacts per participant in all age groups combined as measured by the POLYMOD social contact study in 2005 to 2006. Contacts measured during periods of lockdowns were lower than in periods of eased social restrictions. The use of face coverings outside the home has remained high since the government mandated use in some settings in July 2020. The main limitations of this analysis are the potential for selection bias, as participants are recruited through internet-based campaigns, and recall bias, in which participants may under- or overreport the number of contacts they have made.Conclusions: In this study, we observed that recorded contacts reduced dramatically compared to prepandemic levels (as measured in the POLYMOD study), with changes in reported contacts correlated with government interventions throughout the pandemic. Despite easing of restrictions in the summer of 2020, the mean number of reported contacts only returned to about half of that observed prepandemic at its highest recorded level. The CoMix survey provides a unique repeated cross-sectional data set for a full year in England, from the first day of the first lockdown, for use in statistical analyses and mathematical modelling of COVID-19 and other diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The prevalence of obesity has increased in the United Kingdom, and reliably measuring the impact on quality of life and the total healthcare cost from obesity is key to informing the cost-effectiveness of interventions that target obesity, and determining healthcare funding. Current methods for estimating cost-effectiveness of interventions for obesity may be subject to confounding and reverse causation. The aim of this study is to apply a new approach using mendelian randomisation for estimating the cost-effectiveness of interventions that target body mass index (BMI), which may be less affected by confounding and reverse causation than previous approaches.Methods and Findings: We estimated health-related quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and both primary and secondary healthcare costs for 310,913 men and women of white British ancestry aged between 39 and 72 years in UK Biobank between recruitment (2006 to 2010) and 31 March 2017. We then estimated the causal effect of differences in BMI on QALYs and total healthcare costs using mendelian randomisation. For this, we used instrumental variable regression with a polygenic risk score (PRS) for BMI, derived using a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of BMI, with age, sex, recruitment centre, and 40 genetic principal components as covariables to estimate the effect of a unit increase in BMI on QALYs and total healthcare costs. Finally, we used simulations to estimate the likely effect on BMI of policy relevant interventions for BMI, then used the mendelian randomisation estimates to estimate the cost-effectiveness of these interventions. A unit increase in BMI decreased QALYs by 0.65% of a QALY (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.49% to 0.81%) per year and increased annual total healthcare costs by £42.23 (95% CI: £32.95 to £51.51) per person. When considering only health conditions usually considered in previous cost-effectiveness modelling studies (cancer, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes), we estimated that a unit increase in BMI decreased QALYs by only 0.16% of a QALY (95% CI: 0.10% to 0.22%) per year. We estimated that both laparoscopic bariatric surgery among individuals with BMI greater than 35 kg/m2, and restricting volume promotions for high fat, salt, and sugar products, would increase QALYs and decrease total healthcare costs, with net monetary benefits (at £20,000 per QALY) of £13,936 (95% CI: £8,112 to £20,658) per person over 20 years, and £546 million (95% CI: £435 million to £671 million) in total per year, respectively. The main limitations of this approach are that mendelian randomisation relies on assumptions that cannot be proven, including the absence of directional pleiotropy, and that genotypes are independent of confounders.Conclusions: Mendelian randomisation can be used to estimate the impact of interventions on quality of life and healthcare costs. We observed that the effect of increasing BMI on health-related quality of life is much larger when accounting for 240 chronic health conditions, compared with only a limited selection. This means that previous cost-effectiveness studies have likely underestimated the effect of BMI on quality of life and, therefore, the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce BMI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The Covid-19 pandemic is hitting societies hard, and people living in disadvantaged circumstances are among the most affected. We investigate the combined effects of the Covid-19 crisis and living in a deprived neighbourhood on two dimensions of subjective well-being: hedonic (i.e. mental health) and evaluative (i.e. life satisfaction) subjective well-being. Methods: We use longitudinal data from the Understanding Society UK panel. We combine data gathered in the main survey between 2015 and 2019 with very recent data from the Covid-19 online survey between April and July 2020. Leveraging a sample of nearly 9,600 English individuals, we first run a set of cross-sectional OLS regressions to analyse changes over time in the relationship between neighbourhood deprivation and subjective well-being. Then, as our main model of interest, we use a fixed effect difference-in-differences model to provide more robust evidence. Results: Since the beginning of the crisis, both levels of hedonic and evaluative well-being have decreased as a result of the pandemic and lockdown. However, for those living in more deprived neighbourhoods the level of hedonic well-being decreased more than for those living in better areas. We found no such difference for evaluative well-being. Conclusion: Our results highlight the importance of reducing neighbourhood inequalities as the spatial clustering of disadvantages has increased by the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: We examined the association between the school policy, social and physical environment and change in adolescent physical activity (PA) and explored how sex and socioeconomic status modified potential associations. Methods: Data from the GoActive study were used for these analyses. Participants were adolescents (n = 1765, mean age±SD 13.2±0.4y) from the East of England, UK. Change in longitudinal accelerometer assessed moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) was the outcome. School policy, social and physical environment features (n = 267) were exposures. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator variable selection method (LASSO) was used to determine exposures most relevant to the outcome. Exposures selected by the LASSO were added to a multiple linear regression model with estimates of change in min/day of MVPA per 1-unit change in each exposure reported. Post-hoc analyses, exploring associations between change in variables selected by the LASSO and change in MVPA, were undertaken to further explain findings. Findings: No school policy or physical environment features were selected by the LASSO as predictors of change in MVPA. The LASSO selected two school social environment variables (participants asking a friend to do physical activity; friend asking a participant to do physical activity) as potential predictors of change in MVPA but no significant associations were found in subsequent linear regression models for all participants (β [95%CI] -1.01 [-2.73;0.71] and 0.65 [-2.17;0.87] min/day respectively). In the post-hoc analyses, for every unit increase in change in participants asking a friend to do PA and change in a friend asking participants to do PA, an increase in MVPA of 2.78 (1.55;4.02) and 1.80 (0.48;3.11) min/day was predicted respectively. Conclusions: The school social environment is associated with PA during adolescence. Further exploration of how friendships during adolescence may be leveraged to support effective PA promotion in schools is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: People with reduced kidney function have increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We present a policy model that simulates individuals' long-term health outcomes and costs to inform strategies to reduce risks of kidney and CVDs in this population.Methods and Findings: We used a United Kingdom primary healthcare database, the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), linked with secondary healthcare and mortality data, to derive an open 2005-2013 cohort of adults (≥18 years of age) with reduced kidney function (≥2 measures of estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <90 mL/min/1.73 m2 ≥90 days apart). Data on individuals' sociodemographic and clinical characteristics at entry and outcomes (first occurrences of stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and hospitalisation for heart failure; annual kidney disease stages; and cardiovascular and nonvascular deaths) during follow-up were extracted. The cohort was used to estimate risk equations for outcomes and develop a chronic kidney disease-cardiovascular disease (CKD-CVD) health outcomes model, a Markov state transition model simulating individuals' long-term outcomes, healthcare costs, and quality of life based on their characteristics at entry. Model-simulated cumulative risks of outcomes were compared with respective observed risks using a split-sample approach. To illustrate model value, we assess the benefits of partial (i.e., at 2013 levels) and optimal (i.e., fully compliant with clinical guidelines in 2019) use of cardioprotective medications. The cohort included 1.1 million individuals with reduced kidney function (median follow-up 4.9 years, 45% men, 19% with CVD, and 74% with only mildly decreased eGFR of 60-89 mL/min/1.73 m2 at entry). Age, kidney function status, and CVD events were the key determinants of subsequent morbidity and mortality. The model-simulated cumulative disease risks corresponded well to observed risks in participant categories by eGFR level. Without the use of cardioprotective medications, for 60- to 69-year-old individuals with mildly decreased eGFR (60-89 mL/min/1.73 m2), the model projected a further 22.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 21.8-22.3) years of life if without previous CVD and 18.6 (18.2-18.9) years if with CVD. Cardioprotective medication use at 2013 levels (29%-44% of indicated individuals without CVD; 64%-76% of those with CVD) was projected to increase their life expectancy by 0.19 (0.14-0.23) and 0.90 (0.50-1.21) years, respectively. At optimal cardioprotective medication use, the projected health gains in these individuals increased by further 0.33 (0.25-0.40) and 0.37 (0.20-0.50) years, respectively. Limitations include risk factor measurements from the UK routine primary care database and limited albuminuria measurements.Conclusions: The CKD-CVD policy model is a novel resource for projecting long-term health outcomes and assessing treatment strategies in people with reduced kidney function. The model indicates clear survival benefits with cardioprotective treatments in this population and scope for further benefits if use of these treatments is optimised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to extend previous research on the experiences and factors that impact law enforcement personnel when working with distressing materials such as child sexual abuse content. A sample of 22 law enforcement personnel working within one law enforcement organisation in England, United Kingdom participated in anonymous semi-structured interviews. Results were explored thematically and organised in the following headings: "Responses to the material", "Impact of working with distressing evidence", "Personal coping strategies" and "Risks and mitigating factors". Law enforcement professionals experienced heightened affective responses to personally relevant material, depictions of violence, victims' displays of emotions, norm violations and to various mediums. These responses dampened over time due to desensitisation. The stress experienced from exposure to the material sometimes led to psychological symptoms associated with Secondary Traumatic Stress. Job satisfaction, self-care activities, the coping strategies used when viewing evidence, detachment from work outside working hours, social support and reducing exposure to the material were found to mediate law enforcement professionals' resilience. Exposure to distressing material and the risks associated with this exposure were also influenced by specific organisational procedures implemented as a function of the funding available and workload. Recommendations for individual and organisational practices to foster resilience emerged from this research. These recommendations are relevant to all organisations where employees are required to view distressing content. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Rotavirus infection is a common cause of gastroenteritis in children worldwide, with a high mortality burden in developing countries, particularly during the first two years of life. Rotavirus vaccination was introduced into the United Kingdom childhood vaccination schedule in July 2013, with high coverage (>90%) achieved by June 2016. We used an emergency department (ED) syndromic surveillance system to assess the impact of the rotavirus vaccination programme, specifically through the demonstration of any immediate and continuing impact on ED gastroenteritis visits in England. Methods: This retrospective, observational study used syndromic surveillance data collected from 3 EDs in the two years before (July 2011—June 2013) and 3 years post (July 2013—June 2016) introduction of rotavirus vaccination. The weekly levels of ED visits for gastroenteritis (by age group and in total) during the period before rotavirus vaccination was first described alongside the findings of laboratory surveillance of rotavirus during the same period. An interrupted time-series analysis was then performed to demonstrate the impact of rotavirus vaccination introduction on gastroenteritis ED visit levels. Results: During the two years before vaccine introduction ED visits for gastroenteritis in total and for the 0–4 years age group were seen to rise and fall in line with the seasonal rotavirus increases reported by laboratory surveillance. ED gastroenteritis visits by young children were lower in the three years following introduction of rotavirus vaccination (reduced from 8% of visits to 6% of visits). These attendance levels in young children (0-4years) remained higher than in older age groups, however the previously large seasonal increases in children were greatly reduced, from peaks of 16% to 3–10% of ED visits per week. Conclusions: ED syndromic surveillance demonstrated a reduction in gastroenteritis visits following rotavirus vaccine introduction. This work establishes ED syndromic surveillance as a platform for rapid impact assessment of future vaccine programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The use of antidepressants in children and adolescents remains controversial. We examined trends over time and variation in antidepressant prescribing in children and young people in England and whether the drugs prescribed reflected UK licensing and guidelines.Methods and Findings: QResearch is a primary care database containing anonymised healthcare records of over 32 million patients from more than 1,500 general practices across the UK. All eligible children and young people aged 5-17 years in 1998-2017 from QResearch were included. Incidence and prevalence rates of antidepressant prescriptions in each year were calculated overall, for 4 antidepressant classes (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors [SSRIs], tricyclic and related antidepressants [TCAs], serotonin and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors [SNRIs], and other antidepressants), and for individual drugs. Adjusted trends over time and differences by social deprivation, region, and ethnicity were examined using Poisson regression, taking clustering within general practitioner (GP) practices into account using multilevel modelling. Of the 4.3 million children and young people in the cohort, 49,434 (1.1%) were prescribed antidepressants for the first time during 20 million years of follow-up. Males made up 52.0% of the cohorts, but only 34.1% of those who were first prescribed an antidepressant in the study period. The largest proportion of the cohort was from London (24.4%), and whilst ethnicity information was missing for 39.5% of the cohort, of those with known ethnicity, 75.3% were White. Overall, SSRIs (62.6%) were the most commonly prescribed first antidepressant, followed by TCAs (35.7%). Incident antidepressant prescribing decreased in 5- to 11-year-olds from a peak of 0.9 in females and 1.6 in males in 1999 to less than 0.2 per 1,000 for both sexes in 2017, but incidence rates more than doubled in 12- to 17-year-olds between 2005 and 2017 to 9.7 (females) and 4.2 (males) per 1,000 person-years. The lowest prescription incidence rates were in London, and the highest were in the South East of England (excluding London) for all sex and age groups. Those living in more deprived areas were more likely to be prescribed antidepressants after adjusting for region. The strongest trend was seen in 12- to 17-year-old females (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 1.12, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.11-1.13, p < 0.001, per deprivation quintile increase). Prescribing rates were highest in White and lowest in Black adolescents (aIRR 0.32, 95% CI 0.29-0.36, p < 0.001 [females]; aIRR 0.32, 95% CI 0.27-0.38, p < 0.001 [males]). The 5 most commonly prescribed antidepressants were either licensed in the UK for use in children and young people (CYP) or included in national guidelines. Limitations of the study are that, because we did not have access to secondary care prescribing information, we may be underestimating the prevalence and misidentifying the first antidepressant prescription. We could not assess whether antidepressants were dispensed or taken.Conclusions: Our analysis provides evidence of a continuing rise of antidepressant prescribing in adolescents aged 12-17 years since 2005, driven by SSRI prescriptions, but a decrease in children aged 5-11 years. The variation in prescribing by deprivation, region, and ethnicity could represent inequities. Future research should examine whether prescribing trends and variation are due to true differences in need and risk factors, access to diagnosis or treatment, prescribing behaviour, or young people's help-seeking behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Experiencing multiple adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) is a risk factor for many adverse outcomes. We explore associations of ACEs with educational attainment and adolescent health and the role of family and socioeconomic factors in these associations.Methods and Findings: Using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a prospective cohort of children born in southwest England in 1991-1992, we assess associations of ACEs between birth and 16 years (sexual, physical, or emotional abuse; emotional neglect; parental substance abuse; parental mental illness or suicide attempt; violence between parents; parental separation; bullying; and parental criminal conviction, with data collected on multiple occasions between birth and age 16) with educational attainment at 16 years (n = 9,959) and health at age 17 years (depression, obesity, harmful alcohol use, smoking, and illicit drug use; n = 4,917). We explore the extent to which associations are robust to adjustment for family and socioeconomic factors (home ownership, mother and partner's highest educational qualification, household social class, parity, child's ethnicity, mother's age, mother's marital status, mother's depression score at 18 and 32 weeks gestation, and mother's partner's depression score at 18 weeks gestation) and whether associations differ according to socioeconomic factors, and we estimate the proportion of adverse educational and health outcomes attributable to ACEs or family or socioeconomic measures. Among the 9,959 participants (49.5% female) included in analysis of educational outcomes, 84% reported at least one ACE, 24% reported 4 or more ACEs, and 54.5% received 5 or more General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs) at grade C or above, including English and Maths. Among the 4,917 participants (50.1% female) included in analysis of health outcomes, 7.3% were obese, 8.7% had depression, 19.5% reported smoking, 16.1% reported drug use, and 10.9% reported harmful alcohol use. There were associations of ACEs with lower educational attainment and higher risk of depression, drug use, and smoking. For example, odds ratios (ORs) for 4+ ACEs compared with no ACEs after adjustment for confounders were depression, 2.4 (1.6-3.8, p < 0.001); drug use, 3.1 (2.1-4.4, p < 0.001); and smoking, 2.3 (1.7-3.1, p < 0.001). Associations with educational attainment attenuated after adjustment but remained strong; for example, the OR after adjustment for confounders for low educational attainment comparing 4+ ACEs with no ACEs was 2.0 (1.7-2.4, p < 0.001). Associations with depression, drug use, and smoking were not altered by adjustment. Associations of ACEs with harmful alcohol use and obesity were weak. For example, ORs for 4+ ACEs compared with no ACEs after adjustment for confounders were harmful alcohol use, 1.4 (0.9-2.0, p = 0.10) and obesity, 1.4 (0.9-2.2, p = 0.13) We found no evidence that socioeconomic factors modified the associations of ACEs with educational or health outcomes. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for the adverse educational and health outcomes range from 5%-15% for 4+ ACEs and 1%-19% for low maternal education. Using data from multiple questionnaires across a long period of time enabled us to capture a detailed picture of the cohort members' experience of ACEs; however, a limitation of our study is that this resulted in a high proportion of missing data, and our analyses assume data are missing at random.Conclusions: This study demonstrates associations between ACEs and lower educational attainment and higher risks of depression, drug use, and smoking that remain after adjustment for family and socioeconomic factors. The low PAFs for both ACEs and socioeconomic factors imply that interventions that focus solely on ACEs or solely on socioeconomic deprivation, whilst beneficial, would miss most cases of adverse educational and health outcomes. This interpretation suggests that intervention strategies should target a wide range of relevant factors, including ACEs, socioeconomic deprivation, parental substance use, and mental health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Bacterial vaginosis (BV) is associated with an elevated vaginal pH and the presence of abnormal offensive discharge. It is common, often recurrent, and the most effective treatment regimen is unknown. 'Metronidazole Versus lactic acId for Treating bacterial vAginosis' (VITA) is a UK-based randomised controlled trial assessing clinical and cost-effectiveness of topical lactic acid gel compared to oral metronidazole antibiotic for treating second and subsequent BV episodes. Few BV trials report on women's preferences for treatment in the context of their own experiences. Method: This qualitative study investigated the acceptability and tolerability of the two treatments. During the trial, semi-structured telephone interviews were undertaken between January—May 2018. A total of 33 women diagnosed with BV were consecutively sampled then interviewed from six sites across England. Thematic analysis was guided by the acceptability of health interventions framework. Potential causes of BV and its impact on women's lives were explored in addition to women's treatment preference and perceived treatment effectiveness. Results: Although women felt antibiotics treat BV effectively, and were associated with longer time periods between episodes, they generally preferred using the lactic acid gel because of ease of use, once daily application and less side-effects. Women would recommend the lactic acid gel to others for mild cases of BV but to take antibiotics when more severe. The risk of antibiotic drug resistance was a common concern. Self-help medicating or self-decision to not treat was also evident due to prior experience of poor outcomes from treatment. Triggers of BV were attributed to personal hygiene habits–soaps used to wash the vagina and sexual practices such as unprotected sex. Conclusion: Acceptability and preference for topical lactic acid gel or oral metronidazole tablets in the treatment of recurrent BV was affected by personal choice relating to affective attitude, burden, ethicality, intervention coherence, opportunity costs, and self-efficacy. These differed depending on ease of use, tolerability and past experiences, but not necessarily based on perceived drug effectiveness. Knowledge of a patient preference for topical lactic acid gel therapy despite lower perceived effectiveness may be useful for clinicians when making treatment decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In October 2017, the United Kingdom Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) recommended removal of one primary dose of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) from the existing 2+1 schedule (2, 4, 12 months). We conducted a mathematical modelling study to investigate the potential impact of a 1+1 (3, 12 month) schedule on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Our results and those from a 1+1 immunogenicity study formed the key evidence reviewed by JCVI.Methods and Findings: We developed age-structured, dynamic, deterministic models of pneumococcal transmission in England and Wales to describe the impact on IPD of 7-valent PCV (PCV7; introduced in 2006) and PCV13 (introduced in 2010). Key transmission and vaccine parameters were estimated by fitting to carriage data from 2001/2002 and post-PCV IPD data to 2015, using vaccine coverage, mixing patterns between ages, and population data. We considered various models to investigate potential reasons for the rapid increase in non-PCV13 (non-vaccine serotype [NVT]) IPD cases since 2014. After searching a large parameter space, 500 parameter sets were identified with a likelihood statistically close to the maximum and these used to predict future cases (median, prediction range from 500 parameter sets). Our findings indicated that the emergence of individual NVTs with higher virulence resulting from ongoing replacement was likely responsible; the NVT increase was predicted to plateau from 2020. Long-term simulation results suggest that changing to a 1+1 schedule would have little overall impact, as the small increase in vaccine-type IPD would be offset by a reduction in NVT IPD. Our results were robust to changes in vaccine assumptions in a sensitivity analysis. Under the base case scenario, a change to a 1+1 schedule in 2018 was predicted to produce 31 (6, 76) additional IPD cases over five years and 83 (-10, 242) additional pneumococcal-CAP cases, with together 8 (-2, 24) additional deaths, none in children under 15 years. Long-term continuation with the 2+1 schedule, or changing to a 1+1, was predicted to sustain current reductions in IPD cases in under-64-year-olds, but cases in 65+-year-olds would continue to increase because of the effects of an aging population. Limitations of our model include difficulty in fitting to past trends in NVT IPD in some age groups and inherent uncertainty about future NVT behaviour, sparse data for defining the mixing matrix in 65+-year-olds, and the methodological challenge of defining uncertainty on predictions.Conclusions: Our findings suggest that, with the current mature status of the PCV programme in England and Wales, removing one primary dose in the first year of life would have little impact on IPD or pneumococcal CAP cases or associated deaths at any age. A reduction in the number of priming doses would improve programmatic efficiency and facilitate the introduction of new vaccines by reducing the number of coadministered vaccines given at 2 and 4 months of age in the current UK schedule. Our findings should not be applied to other settings with different pneumococcal epidemiology or with immature programmes and poor herd immunity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Funding shortages and an ageing population have increased pressures on state or insurance funded end of life care for older people. Across the world, policy debate has arisen about the potential role volunteers can play, working alongside health and social care professionals in the community to support and care for the ageing and dying. Aims: The authors examined self-reported levels of care for the elderly by the public in England, and public opinions of community volunteering concepts to care for the elderly at the end of life. In particular, claimed willingness to help and to be helped by local people was surveyed. Methods: A sample of 3,590 adults in England aged 45 or more from an online access panel responded to a questionnaire in late 2017. The survey data was weighted to be representative of the population within this age band. Key literature and formative qualitative research informed the design of the survey questionnaire, which was further refined after piloting. Results: Preferences for different models of community volunteering were elicited. There was a preference for ‘formal’ models with increased wariness of ‘informal’ features. Whilst 32% of adults said they ‘might join’ depending on whom the group helped, unsurprisingly more personal and demanding types of help significantly reduced the claimed willingness to help. Finally, willingness to help (or be helped) by local community carers or volunteers was regarded as less attractive than care being provided by personal family, close friends or indeed health and care professionals. Conclusion: Findings suggest that if community volunteering to care for elderly people at the end of life in England is to expand it may require considerable attention to the model including training for volunteers and protections for patients and volunteers as well as public education and promotion. Currently, in England, there is a clear preference for non-medical care to be delivered by close family or social care professionals, with volunteer community care regarded only as a back-up option. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To examine cross-sectional and prospective associations between perceived discrimination in daily life (based on a range of attributes), sexual orientation discrimination, and health and wellbeing in middle-aged and older lesbian, gay and bisexual (LGB) people. Methods: Data were from 304 LGB men and women aged 41–85 years participating in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Perceived discrimination in daily life was reported in 2010/11. Participants could attribute their discrimination experience to characteristics including age, sex, race, physical disability, and sexual orientation. Self-rated health, limiting long-standing illness, depressive symptoms, quality of life, life satisfaction and loneliness were assessed in 2010/11 and 2016/17. Analyses adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, partnership status and socioeconomic position. Results: Perceived discrimination in daily life was reported by 144 (47.4%) participants. Cross-sectionally, perceived discrimination in daily life was associated with increased odds of depressive symptoms (OR = 2.30, 95% CI 1.02 to 5.21), loneliness (OR = 3.37, 95% CI 1.60 to 7.10) and lower quality of life (B = -3.31, 95% CI -5.49 to -1.12). Prospectively, perceived discrimination in daily life was associated with increased odds of loneliness (OR = 3.12, 95% CI 1.08 to 8.99) and lower quality of life (B = -2.08, 95% CI -3.85 to -0.31) and life satisfaction (B = -1.92, 95% CI -3.44 to -0.39) over six-year follow-up. Effect sizes were consistently larger for participants who attributed experiences of discrimination to their sexual orientation compared with those who attributed experiences of discrimination to other reasons (e.g. age, sex, race). Conclusion: These results provide cross-sectional and prospective evidence of associations between perceived discrimination in daily life and health and wellbeing outcomes in middle-aged and older LGB adults in England. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the high prevalence of common mental disorders (CMDs) and individuals living alone in the United Kingdom, the goal of this study using English nationally representative data was to examine the association between living alone and CMDs, and to identify potential mediating factors of this association. The data were drawn from the 1993, 2000 and 2007 National Psychiatric Morbidity Surveys. CMDs were assessed using the Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised (CIS-R), a questionnaire focusing on past week neurotic symptoms. The presence of CMDs was defined as a CIS-R total score of 12 and above. Multivariable logistic regression and mediation analyses were conducted to analyze the association between living alone and CMDs, and to identify mediators in this association. The prevalence of CMDs was higher in individuals living alone than in those not living alone in all survey years. Multivariable analysis showed a positive association between living alone and CMDs in all survey years (1993: odds ratio [OR] = 1.69; 2000: OR = 1.63; and 2007: OR = 1.88). Overall, loneliness explained 84% of the living alone-CMD association. Living alone was positively associated with CMDs. Interventions addressing loneliness among individuals living alone may be particularly important for the mental wellbeing of this vulnerable population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To explore pregnant women’s preferences for birth setting in England. Design: Labelled discrete choice experiment (DCE). Setting: Online survey. Sample: Pregnant women recruited through social media and an online panel. Methods: We developed a DCE to assess women’s preferences for four hypothetical birth settings based on seven attributes: reputation, continuity of care, distance from home, time to see a doctor, partner able to stay overnight, chance of straightforward birth and safety for baby. We used a mixed logit model, with setting modelled as an alternative-specific constant, and conducted a scenario analysis to evaluate the impact of changes in attribute levels on uptake of birth settings. Main outcome measures: Women’s preferences for birth setting. Results: 257 pregnant women completed the DCE. All birth setting attributes, except ‘time to see doctor’, were significant in women’s choice (p<0.05). There was significant heterogeneity in preferences for some attributes. Changes to levels for ‘safety for the baby’ and ‘partner able to stay overnight’ were associated with larger changes from baseline uptake of birth setting. If the preferences identified were translated into the real-world context up to a third of those who reported planning birth in an obstetric unit might choose a midwifery unit assuming universal access to all settings, and knowledge of the differences between settings. Conclusions: We found that ‘safety for the baby’, ‘chance of a straightforward birth’ and ‘can the woman’s partner stay overnight following birth’ were particularly important in women’s preferences for hypothetical birth setting. If all birth settings were available to women and they were aware of the differences between them, it is likely that more low risk women who currently plan birth in OUs might choose a midwifery unit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying the value of investment in medical research can inform decision-making on the prioritisation of research programmes. Existing methodologies to estimate the rate of return of medical research are inappropriate for early-phase translational research due to censoring of health benefits and time lags. A strategy to improve the process of translational research for patient benefit has been initiated as part of the UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) investment in Biomedical Research Centres (BRCs) in England. By providing a platform for partnership between universities, NHS trusts and industry, successful BRCs should reduce time lags within translational research whilst also providing an impetus for local economic growth through industry collaboration. We present a novel contribution in the assessment of early-phase biomedical research by estimating the impact of the Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (OxBRC) on income and job creation following the initial NIHR investment. We adopt a macroeconomic assessment approach using Input-Output Analysis to estimate the value of medical research in terms of income and job creation during the early pathway towards translational biomedical research. Inter-industry linkages are assessed by building a model economy for the South East England region to estimate the return on investment of the OxBRC. The results from the input-output model estimate that the return on investment in biomedical research within the OxBRC is 46%. Each £1 invested in the OxBRC generates an additional £0.46 through income and job creation alone. Multiplicative employment effects following a marginal investment in the OxBRC of £98m during the period 2007-2017 result in an estimated additional 196 full time equivalent positions being created within the local economy on top of direct employment within OxBRC. Results from input-output analyses can be used to inform the prioritisation of biomedical research programmes when compared against national minimum thresholds of investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

England’s national Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) programme advocates stepped care as its organizational delivery of psychological therapies to common mental health problems. There is limited evidence regarding the efficacy of stepped care as a service delivery model, heterogeneity of definition and differences in model implementation in both research and routine practice, hence outcome comparison in terms of effectiveness of model is difficult. Despite sound evidence of the efficacy of low intensity interventions there appears to be a perpetuation of the notion that severity and complexity should only be treated by a high intensity intervention through the continuation of a stratified care model. Yet no psychotherapy treatment is found to be more superior to another, and not enough is known about what works for whom to aid the matching of treatment decision. In the absence of understanding precise treatment factors optimal for recovery, it may be useful to better understand the impact of a service delivery model, and whether different models achieve different outcomes. This study aims to contribute to the discussion regarding the stepped care definition and delivery, and explores the impact on clinical outcomes where different types of stepped care have been implemented within the same service. An observational cohort study analysed retrospective data (n = 16,723) over a 4 year period, in a single IAPT service, where delivery changed from one type of stepped care model to another. We compared the outcomes of treatment completers with a stratified care model and a progression care model. We also explored the assumption that patients who score severe on psychological measures, and therefore are potentially complex, would achieve better outcomes in a stratified model. Outcomes in each model type were compared, alongside baseline factor variables. A significant association was observed between a recovery outcome and model type, with patients 1.5 times more likely to recover in the progression delivery model. The potential implications are that with a progression stepped care model of service delivery, more patients can be treated with a lower intensity intervention, even with initial severe presentations, ensuring that only those that need high intensity CBT or equivalent are stepped up. This could provide services with an effective clinical model that is efficient and potentially more cost effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many disciplines of scholarship are interested in the Relative Age Effect (RAE), whereby age-banding confers advantages on older members of the cohort over younger ones. Most research does not test this relationship in a manner consistent with theory (which requires a decline in frequency across the cohort year), instead resorting to non-parametric, non-directional approaches. In this article, the authors address this disconnect, provide an overview of the benefits associated with Poisson regression modelling, and two managerially useful measures for quantifying RAE bias, namely the Indices of Discrimination and Wastage. In a tutorial-like exposition, applications and extensions of this approach are illustrated using data on professional soccer players competing in the top two tiers of the “Big Five” European football leagues in the search to identify paragon clubs, leagues, and countries from which others may learn to mitigate this form of age-discrimination in the talent identification process. As with OLS regression, Poisson regression may include more than one independent variable. In this way we test competing explanations of RAE; control for unwanted sources of covariation; model interaction effects (that different clubs and countries may not all be subject to RAE to the same degree); and test for non-monotonic versions of RAE suggested in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Healthy Living Pharmacy (HLP) project, launched in England, UK in 2009 was a novel approach of introducing public health services within community pharmacy to tackle local health inequalities. A national roll-out followed a reported successful pilot; subsequent local evaluations ensued. Objectives: To summarise reported outcomes and investigate contextual factors that indicate the presence, absence and maturity of implementation determinants, thus offering useful lessons to stakeholders in implementing future initiatives to achieve successful outcomes. Methods: A systematic review was conducted to identify all publications reporting on the HLP project. All HLP articles and conference abstracts were considered for inclusion and were assessed for methodological quality. The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) was utilised to identify potential implementation determinants reported. Each article was then analysed to identify reported economic, humanistic or clinical outcomes. Results: The review included six peer-reviewed journal articles and 12 conference abstracts. Joanna Briggs Institute Qualitative Assessment and Review Instrument indicated deficiencies in methodological quality. Through adoption of the CFIR framework, the implementation determinants relevant to the implementation of HLP into community pharmacy were identified. A resonating issue emerged in that the absence of adopting an evidence-based implementation process limited the ability to capture meaningful outcome data. This resulted in a lack of evidence to support sustainability and the failure to address many of the well cited barriers, e.g. lack of awareness amongst patients, public and other healthcare professionals, and weak support for future investment in resource for training and dissemination. Conclusions: Healthcare systems are increasingly called on to adopt evidence-based interventions that improve quality, control costs, and maximize value, thus offering opportunity to accelerate the implementation of clinical pharmacy services and programs aimed at improving patient care. Interventions, such as the HLP project require focused efforts on implementation and evaluation of those implementation efforts to produce effective and lasting changes in complex health care systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with antiretroviral medication is an effective, evidence-based option for HIV prevention. In England, issues of cost-effectiveness and of responsibility for commissioning prevention services have so far led National Health Service (NHS) England to decide not to commission PrEP. Given the significant lag between the awareness of PrEP efficacy and the opportunity to obtain PrEP through traditional health care routes, many gay and other men who have sex with men (MSM) have turned to ‘DIY PrEP’, purchasing generic formulations of PrEP for themselves on the internet or via other alternative routes. However, there is very little research on DIY PrEP practices and no qualitative study with DIY PrEP users in the UK. A formative qualitative study was conducted in 2017 to inform the development of an intervention (PrEP Club) to support DIY PrEP users and improve the safety and experience of this prevention strategy. Focus groups were held with 20 MSM who are based in London and are obtaining PrEP through means other than clinical trials, to explore their accounts of sourcing and using PrEP and the experiential meanings of these. In this article, we report findings from this first, formative study and present the different practices involved in finding out about PrEP, buying it and ascertaining legitimacy of sellers and products. We reflect on the uncertainties participants described related to actually using PrEP, including deciding on drug dosing and monitoring their health. Finally, we present the results of the discussions participants had about the kind of support they had received, the help they would have liked, and their views on proposed interventions to support DIY PrEP users, such as PrEP Club. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Air pollution damages health by promoting the onset of some non-communicable diseases (NCDs), putting additional strain on the National Health Service (NHS) and social care. This study quantifies the total health and related NHS and social care cost burden due to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in England.Method and Findings: Air pollutant concentration surfaces from land use regression models and cost data from hospital admissions data and a literature review were fed into a microsimulation model, that was run from 2015 to 2035. Different scenarios were modelled: (1) baseline 'no change' scenario; (2) individuals' pollutant exposure is reduced to natural (non-anthropogenic) levels to compute the disease cases attributable to PM2.5 and NO2; (3) PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations reduced by 1 μg/m3; and (4) NO2 annual European Union limit values reached (40 μg/m3). For the 18 years after baseline, the total cumulative cost to the NHS and social care is estimated at £5.37 billion for PM2.5 and NO2 combined, rising to £18.57 billion when costs for diseases for which there is less robust evidence are included. These costs are due to the cumulative incidence of air-pollution-related NCDs, such as 348,878 coronary heart disease cases estimated to be attributable to PM2.5 and 573,363 diabetes cases estimated to be attributable to NO2 by 2035. Findings from modelling studies are limited by the conceptual model, assumptions, and the availability and quality of input data.Conclusions: Approximately 2.5 million cases of NCDs attributable to air pollution are predicted by 2035 if PM2.5 and NO2 stay at current levels, making air pollution an important public health priority. In future work, the modelling framework should be updated to include multi-pollutant exposure-response functions, as well as to disaggregate results by socioeconomic status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Frail elderly people experience elevated mortality. However, no consensus exists on the definition of frailty, and many frailty scores have been developed. The main aim of this study was to compare the association between 35 frailty scores and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), incident cancer, and all-cause mortality. Also, we aimed to assess whether frailty scores added predictive value to basic and adjusted models for these outcomes.Methods and Findings: Through a structured literature search, we identified 35 frailty scores that could be calculated at wave 2 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), an observational cohort study. We analysed data from 5,294 participants, 44.9% men, aged 60 years and over. We studied the association between each of the scores and the incidence of CVD, cancer, and all-cause mortality during a 7-year follow-up using Cox proportional hazard models at progressive levels of adjustment. We also examined the added predictive performance of each score on top of basic models using Harrell's C statistic. Using age of the participant as a timescale, in sex-adjusted models, hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals) for all-cause mortality ranged from 2.4 (95% CI: 1.7-3.3) to 26.2 (95% CI: 15.4-44.5). In further adjusted models including smoking status and alcohol consumption, HR ranged from 2.3 (95% CI: 1.6-3.1) to 20.2 (95% CI: 11.8-34.5). In fully adjusted models including lifestyle and comorbidity, HR ranged from 0.9 (95% CI: 0.5-1.7) to 8.4 (95% CI: 4.9-14.4). HRs for CVD and cancer incidence in sex-adjusted models ranged from 1.2 (95% CI: 0.5-3.2) to 16.5 (95% CI: 7.8-35.0) and from 0.7 (95% CI: 0.4-1.2) to 2.4 (95% CI: 1.0-5.7), respectively. In sex- and age-adjusted models, all frailty scores showed significant added predictive performance for all-cause mortality, increasing the C statistic by up to 3%. None of the scores significantly improved basic prediction models for CVD or cancer. A source of bias could be the differences in mortality follow-up time compared to CVD/cancer, because the existence of informative censoring cannot be excluded.Conclusion: There is high variability in the strength of the association between frailty scores and 7-year all-cause mortality, incident CVD, and cancer. With regard to all-cause mortality, some scores give a modest improvement to the predictive ability. Our results show that certain scores clearly outperform others with regard to three important health outcomes in later life. Finally, we think that despite their limitations, the use of frailty scores to identify the elderly population at risk is still a useful measure, and the choice of a frailty score should balance feasibility with performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nine burials excavated from the Magdalen Hill Archaeological Research Project (MHARP) in Winchester, UK, showing skeletal signs of lepromatous leprosy (LL) have been studied using a multidisciplinary approach including osteological, geochemical and biomolecular techniques. DNA from Mycobacterium leprae was amplified from all nine skeletons but not from control skeletons devoid of indicative pathology. In several specimens we corroborated the identification of M. leprae with detection of mycolic acids specific to the cell wall of M. leprae and persistent in the skeletal samples. In five cases, the preservation of the material allowed detailed genotyping using single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and multiple locus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA). Three of the five cases proved to be infected with SNP type 3I-1, ancestral to contemporary M. leprae isolates found in southern states of America and likely carried by European migrants. From the remaining two burials we identified, for the first time in the British Isles, the occurrence of SNP type 2F. Stable isotope analysis conducted on tooth enamel taken from two of the type 3I-1 and one of the type 2F remains revealed that all three individuals had probably spent their formative years in the Winchester area. Previously, type 2F has been implicated as the precursor strain that migrated from the Middle East to India and South-East Asia, subsequently evolving to type 1 strains. Thus we show that type 2F had also spread westwards to Britain by the early medieval period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aim: Exposure to stressful life events during pregnancy has been suggested as a potential risk factor for offspring Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD), but the literature is limited and inconsistent. We tested the hypothesis that maternal exposure to stressful life events would be associated with increased risks of offspring ASD, and that these risks would be highest for exposures during the prenatal period. Methods and Results: We used prospectively collected data from two large population based studies in Sweden and England. In the Swedish study of 4429 ASD cases and 43277 controls, our exposure comprised the occurrence of any severe life event before and during pregnancy and the child's early life. In the English study (maximum n = 11554, ASD n = 72), we studied the risk of offspring ASD in relation to a combined maternal exposure to multiple (up to 42) common and rare life events, as well as their perceived impact upon the mother during pregnancy and early life. In crude and adjusted regression analyses in both studies, we found no evidence of an association between prenatal life events, or their number and perceived impact and the risk of offspring ASD. Sub-group analysis of ASD with and without intellectual disability in the Swedish study yielded similar results. Conclusion: We found no evidence to support the hypotheses that exposure to stressful life events during the prenatal period is associated with an increased risk of offspring ASD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors discuss a new study of Bangladeshi migrants to the UK, which found that adult women who had migrated before the age of 8 years had greater luteal phase progesterone secretion than those who had migrated after that age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The UK introduced the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) into the national vaccination program in September 2006. Previous modelling assumed that the likely impact of PCV7 on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) would be similar to the US experience with PCV7. However, recent surveillance data show a more rapid replacement of PCV7 IPD cases by non-PCV7 IPD cases than was seen in the US. Methods and Findings: A previous model of pneumococcal vaccination was re-parameterised using data on vaccine coverage and IPD from England and Wales between 2006 and 2009. Disease incidence was adjusted for the increasing trend in reported IPD cases prior to vaccination. Using this data we estimated that individuals carrying PCV7 serotypes have much higher protection (96%;95% CI 72%-100%) against acquisition of NVT carriage than the 15% previously estimated from US data, which leads to greater replacement. However, even with this level of replacement, the annual number of IPD cases may be 560 (95% CI, -100 to 1230) lower ten years after vaccine introduction compared to what it may have been without vaccination. A particularly marked fall of 39% in children under 15 years by 2015/6 is predicted. Conclusion: Our model suggests that PCV7 vaccination could result in a decrease in overall invasive pneumococcal disease, particularly in children, even in an environment of rapid replacement with non-PCV7 serotypes within 5 years of vaccine introduction at high coverage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pay-for-performance rewards health-care providers by paying them more if they succeed in meeting performance targets. A new contract for general practitioners in the United Kingdom represents the most radical shift towards pay-for-performance seen in any health-care system. The contract provides an important opportunity to address disparities in chronic disease management between ethnic and socioeconomic groups. We examined disparities in management of people with diabetes and intermediate clinical outcomes within a multiethnic population in primary care before and after the introduction of the new contract in April 2004.Methods and Findings: We conducted a population-based longitudinal survey, using electronic general practice records, in an ethnically diverse part of southwest London. Outcome measures were prescribing levels and achievement of national treatment targets (HbA1c < or = 7.0%; blood pressure [BP] < 140/80 mm Hg; total cholesterol < or = 5 mmol/l or 193 mg/dl). The proportion of patients reaching treatment targets for HbA1c, BP, and total cholesterol increased significantly after the implementation of the new contract. The extents of these increases were broadly uniform across ethnic groups, with the exception of the black Caribbean patient group, which had a significantly lower improvement in HbA1c (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57-0.97) and BP control (AOR 0.65, 95% CI 0.53-0.81) relative to the white British patient group. Variations in prescribing and achievement of treatment targets between ethnic groups present in 2003 were not attenuated in 2005.Conclusions: Pay-for-performance incentives have not addressed disparities in the management and control of diabetes between ethnic groups. Quality improvement initiatives must place greater emphasis on minority communities to avoid continued disparities in mortality from cardiovascular disease and the other major complications of diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]