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Introduction: There is evidence that greater neighbourhood walkability (i.e., neighbourhoods with more amenities and well-connected streets) is associated with higher levels of total walking in Europe and in Asia, but it remains unclear if this association holds in the Canadian context and in chronic disease populations. We examined the relationships of different walkability measures to biosensor-assessed total walking (i.e., steps/day) in adults with type 2 diabetes living in Montreal (QC, Canada). Materials and Methods: Participants (60.5±10.4 years; 48.1% women) were recruited through McGill University-affiliated clinics (June 2006 to May 2008). Steps/day were assessed once per season for one year with pedometers. Neighbourhood walkability was evaluated through participant reports, in-field audits, Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-derived measures, and the Walk Score®. Relationships between walkability and daily steps were estimated using Bayesian longitudinal hierarchical linear regression models (n = 131). Results: Participants who reported living in the most compared to the least walkable neighbourhoods completed 1345 more steps/day (95% Credible Interval: 718, 1976; Quartiles 4 versus 1). Those living in the most compared to the least walkable neighbourhoods (based on GIS-derived walkability) completed 606 more steps per day (95% CrI: 8, 1203). No statistically significant associations with steps were observed for audit-assessed walkability or the Walk Score®. Conclusions: Adults with type 2 diabetes who perceived their neighbourhoods as more walkable accumulated more daily steps. This suggests that knowledge of local neighborhood features that enhance walking is a meaningful predictor of higher levels of walking and an important component of neighbourhood walkability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate estimates of global carbon emissions are critical for understanding global warming. This paper estimates net carbon emissions from land use change in Bolivia during the periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2010 using a model that takes into account deforestation, forest degradation, forest regrowth, gradual carbon decomposition and accumulation, as well as heterogeneity in both above ground and below ground carbon contents at the 10 by 10 km grid level. The approach permits detailed maps of net emissions by region and type of land cover. We estimate that net CO2 emissions from land use change in Bolivia increased from about 65 million tons per year during 1990–2000 to about 93 million tons per year during 2000–2010, while CO2 emissions per capita and per unit of GDP have remained fairly stable over the sample period. If we allow for estimated biomass increases in mature forests, net CO2 emissions drop to close to zero. Finally, we find these results are robust to alternative methods of calculating emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artificial vegetation restoration can induce variations in accumulation and distribution of soil carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). However, little is known about variations in soil C, N and P nutrient fraction stratification following artificial vegetation in Loess Plateau China. Based on the hypothesis that re-vegetated can improve soil quality and stratification ratios (SR) can be used as an indicator to evaluate soil quality. This study measured contents and storages of soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and their SRs in topsoil (0–20 cm) and subsoil (20–60 cm) in three 30-year re-vegetated lands that had been converted from arable land (Robinia pseudoacacia L., Caragana Korshinskii Kom. and abandoned cropland with low interferences and few management measures) and one slope cropland (SC) as a control for three soil profiles(0–20 cm, 20–40 cm and 40–60 cm) from June 2009 to June 2013. The results showed that the contents and storages of SOC, TN and TP in re-vegetated land were significantly higher than those in the SC in both topsoil and subsoil. The storages of SOC, TN and TP in the topsoil (0–20 cm) of the re-vegetated lands increased by 16.2%-26.4%, 12.7%-28.4% and 16.5%-20.9%, respectively, and increased by smaller but significant amounts in subsoil from 2009 to 2013. The SRs for SOC, TN and TP in the re-vegetated lands were mostly >2 (either for 0–20:20–40 cm or 0–20:40–60 cm) and greater than that in the SC. The SRs showed an increasing trend with increasing restoration age. The results also showed that the land use type and soil depth were the most influential factors for the SRs and storages, and the SRs of SOC and TN had significantly positive correlations with their storages. The SRs were concluded to be a good indicator for evaluating the soil quality, which can be significantly enhanced through vegetation restoration. Moreover, vegetation restoration can significantly enhance SOC, TN and TP accumulation in both topsoil and subsoil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arid and semi-arid areas in North China are facing the challenge of a rising aeolian desertification risk (ADR) due to the intertwined effects of complex natural processes and intensified anthropogenic activities. An accurate quantitative assessment of the relationship between ADR and its determinants is beneficial for understanding the driving mechanisms of aeolian desertification and for controlling future desertification. Previous studies have failed to quantify the relative role of determinants driving ADR and have been limited in assessing their interactive impacts. In this study, a spatial variance analysis-based geographical detector methodology is used to quantify the effects of geological, physical, and human factors on the occurrence of ADR in an area characterized by mountains and hills in northern China. It is found that soil type, precipitation, and wind velocity are the major determinants of ADR, which implies that geological and physical elements (e.g., soil attribute) and climatic factors (e.g., precipitation and wind velocity) rather than human activities have played a greater role in the incidence of ADR. Particularly, the results show that the interaction of various determinants causes significant non-linearly enhanced impacts on the ADR. The findings of our study will assist local inhabitants and policy makers in developing measures for wind prevention and sand control to mitigate the effects of desertification in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dryland pastoralism has long attracted considerable attention from researchers in diverse fields. However, rigorous formal study is made difficult by the high level of mobility of pastoralists as well as by the sizable spatio-temporal variability of their environment. This article presents a new computational approach for studying mobile pastoralism that overcomes these issues. Combining multi-temporal satellite images and agent-based modeling allows a comprehensive examination of pastoral resource access over a realistic dryland landscape with unpredictable ecological dynamics. The article demonstrates the analytical potential of this approach through its application to mobile pastoralism in northeast Nigeria. Employing more than 100 satellite images of the area, extensive simulations are conducted under a wide array of circumstances, including different land-use constraints. The simulation results reveal complex dependencies of pastoral resource access on these circumstances along with persistent patterns of seasonal land use observed at the macro level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil cadmium (Cd) contamination has attracted a great deal of attention because of its detrimental effects on animals and humans. This study aimed to develop and compare the performances of stepwise linear regression (SLR), classification and regression tree (CART) and random forest (RF) models in the prediction and mapping of the spatial distribution of soil Cd and to identify likely sources of Cd accumulation in Fuyang County, eastern China. Soil Cd data from 276 topsoil (0–20 cm) samples were collected and randomly divided into calibration (222 samples) and validation datasets (54 samples). Auxiliary data, including detailed land use information, soil organic matter, soil pH, and topographic data, were incorporated into the models to simulate the soil Cd concentrations and further identify the main factors influencing soil Cd variation. The predictive models for soil Cd concentration exhibited acceptable overall accuracies (72.22% for SLR, 70.37% for CART, and 75.93% for RF). The SLR model exhibited the largest predicted deviation, with a mean error (ME) of 0.074 mg/kg, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.160 mg/kg, and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.274 mg/kg, and the RF model produced the results closest to the observed values, with an ME of 0.002 mg/kg, an MAE of 0.132 mg/kg, and an RMSE of 0.198 mg/kg. The RF model also exhibited the greatest R2 value (0.772). The CART model predictions closely followed, with ME, MAE, RMSE, and R2 values of 0.013 mg/kg, 0.154 mg/kg, 0.230 mg/kg and 0.644, respectively. The three prediction maps generally exhibited similar and realistic spatial patterns of soil Cd contamination. The heavily Cd-affected areas were primarily located in the alluvial valley plain of the Fuchun River and its tributaries because of the dramatic industrialization and urbanization processes that have occurred there. The most important variable for explaining high levels of soil Cd accumulation was the presence of metal smelting industries. The good performance of the RF model was attributable to its ability to handle the non-linear and hierarchical relationships between soil Cd and environmental variables. These results confirm that the RF approach is promising for the prediction and spatial distribution mapping of soil Cd at the regional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High levels of water-induced erosion in the transboundary Himalayan river basins are contributing to substantial changes in basin hydrology and inundation. Basin-wide information on erosion dynamics is needed for conservation planning, but field-based studies are limited. This study used remote sensing (RS) data and a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the spatial distribution of soil erosion across the entire Koshi basin, to identify changes between 1990 and 2010, and to develop a conservation priority map. The revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) was used in an ArcGIS environment with rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, cover-management, and support practice factors as primary parameters. The estimated annual erosion from the basin was around 40 million tonnes (40 million tonnes in 1990 and 42 million tonnes in 2010). The results were within the range of reported levels derived from isolated plot measurements and model estimates. Erosion risk was divided into eight classes from very low to extremely high and mapped to show the spatial pattern of soil erosion risk in the basin in 1990 and 2010. The erosion risk class remained unchanged between 1990 and 2010 in close to 87% of the study area, but increased over 9.0% of the area and decreased over 3.8%, indicating an overall worsening of the situation. Areas with a high and increasing risk of erosion were identified as priority areas for conservation. The study provides the first assessment of erosion dynamics at the basin level and provides a basis for identifying conservation priorities across the Koshi basin. The model has a good potential for application in similar river basins in the Himalayan region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Loess Plateau, soil erosion has not only caused serious ecological and environmental problems but has also impacted downstream areas. Therefore, a model is needed to guide the comprehensive control of soil erosion. In this study, we introduced the WEPP model to simulate soil erosion both at the slope and watershed scales. Our analyses showed that: the simulated values at the slope scale were very close to the measured. However, both the runoff and soil erosion simulated values at the watershed scale were higher than the measured. At the slope scale, under different coverage, the simulated erosion was slightly higher than the measured. When the coverage is 40%, the simulated results of both runoff and erosion are the best. At the watershed scale, the actual annual runoff of the Liudaogou watershed is 83m3; sediment content is 0.097 t/m3, annual erosion sediment 8.057t and erosion intensity 0.288 t ha-1 yr-1. Both the simulated values of soil erosion and runoff are higher than the measured, especially the runoff. But the simulated erosion trend is relatively accurate after the farmland is returned to grassland. We concluded that the WEPP model can be used to establish a reasonable vegetation restoration model and guide the vegetation restoration of the Loess Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bees provide critical pollination services to 87% of angiosperm plants; however, the reliability of these services may become threatened as bee populations decline. Agricultural intensification, resulting in the simplification of environments at the landscape scale, greatly changes the quality and quantity of resources available for female bees to provision their offspring. These changes may alter or constrain the tradeoffs in maternal investment allocation between offspring size, number and sex required to maximize fitness. Here we investigate the relationship between landscape scale agricultural intensification and the size and number of individuals within a wild ground nesting bee species, Andrena nasonii. We show that agricultural intensification at the landscape scale was associated with a reduction in the average size of field collected A. nasonii adults in highly agricultural landscapes but not with the number of individuals collected. Small females carried significantly smaller (40%) pollen loads than large females, which is likely to have consequences for subsequent offspring production and fitness. Thus, landscape simplification is likely to constrain allocation of resources to offspring through a reduction in the overall quantity, quality and distribution of resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the validity of the assumption that international large-scale land acquisition (LSLA) is motivated by the desire to secure control over water resources, which is commonly referred to as ‘water grabbing’. This assumption was repeatedly expressed in recent years, ascribing the said motivation to the Gulf States in particular. However, it must be considered of hypothetical nature, as the few global studies conducted so far focused primarily on the effects of LSLA on host countries or on trade in virtual water. In this study, we analyse the effects of 475 intended or concluded land deals recorded in the Land Matrix database on the water balance in both host and investor countries. We also examine how these effects relate to water stress and how they contribute to global trade in virtual water. The analysis shows that implementation of the LSLAs in our sample would result in global water savings based on virtual water trade. At the level of individual LSLA host countries, however, water use intensity would increase, particularly in 15 sub-Saharan states. From an investor country perspective, the analysis reveals that countries often suspected of using LSLA to relieve pressure on their domestic water resources—such as China, India, and all Gulf States except Saudi Arabia—invest in agricultural activities abroad that are less water-intensive compared to their average domestic crop production. Conversely, large investor countries such as the United States, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and Japan are disproportionately externalizing crop water consumption through their international land investments. Statistical analyses also show that host countries with abundant water resources are not per se favoured targets of LSLA. Indeed, further analysis reveals that land investments originating in water-stressed countries have only a weak tendency to target areas with a smaller water risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing demand for biofuel has intensified land-use change (LUC) for sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) expansion in Brazil. Assessments of soil quality (SQ) response to this LUC are essential for quantifying and monitoring sustainability of sugarcane production over time. Since there is not a universal methodology for assessing SQ, we conducted a field-study at three sites within the largest sugarcane-producing region of Brazil to develop a SQ index (SQI). The most common LUC scenario (i.e., native vegetation to pasture to sugarcane) was evaluated using six SQI strategies with varying complexities. Thirty eight soil indicators were included in the total dataset. Two minimum datasets were selected: one using principal component analysis (7 indicators) and the other based on expert opinion (5 indicators). Non-linear scoring curves were used to interpret the indicator values. Weighted and non-weighted additive methods were used to combine individual indicator scores into an overall SQI. Long-term conversion from native vegetation to extensive pasture significantly decreased overall SQ. In contrast, conversion from pasture to sugarcane had no significant impact on overall SQ at the regional scale, but site-specific responses were found. In general, sugarcane production improved chemical attributes (i.e., higher macronutrient levels and lower soil acidity); however it has negative effects on physical and biological attributes (i.e., higher soil compaction and structural degradation as well as lower soil organic carbon (SOC), abundance and diversity of macrofauna and microbial activity). Overall, we found that simple, user-friendly strategies were as effective as more complex ones for identifying SQ changes. Therefore, as a protocol for SQ assessments in Brazilian sugarcane areas, we recommend using a small number of indicators (e.g., pH, P, K, Visual Evaluation of Soil Structure -VESS scores and SOC concentration) and proportional weighting to reflect chemical, physical and biological processes within the soil. Our SQ evaluations also suggest that current approaches for expanding Brazilian sugarcane production by converting degraded pasture land to cropland can be a sustainable strategy for meeting increasing biofuel demand. However, management practices that alleviate negative impacts on soil physical and biological indicators must be prioritized within sugarcane producing areas to prevent unintentional SQ degradation over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We modelled the distribution of two vulnerable steppe birds, Otis tarda and Tetrax tetrax, in the Western Palearctic and projected their suitability up to the year 2080. We performed two types of models for each species: one that included environmental and geographic variables (space-included model) and a second one that only included environmental variables (space-excluded model). Our assumption was that ignoring geographic variables in the modelling procedure may result in inaccurate forecasting of species distributions. On the other hand, the inclusion of geographic variables may generate an artificial constraint on future projections. Our results show that space-included models performed better than space-excluded models. While distribution of suitable areas for T. tetrax in the future was approximately the same as at present in the space-included model, the space-excluded model predicted a pronounced geographic change of suitable areas for this species. In the case of O. tarda, the space-included model showed that many areas of current presence shifted to low or medium suitability in the future, whereas a northward expansion of intermediate suitable areas was predicted by the space-excluded one. According to the best models, current distribution of these species can restrict future distribution, probably due to dispersal constraints and site fidelity. Species ranges would be expected to shift gradually over the studied time period and, therefore, we consider it unlikely that most of the current distribution of these species in southern Europe will disappear in less than one hundred years. Therefore, populations currently occupying suitable areas should be a priority for conservation policies. Our results also show that climate-only models may have low explanatory power, and could benefit from adjustments using information on other environmental variables and biological traits; if the latter are not available, including the geographic predictor may improve the reliability of predicted results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well recognized that assemblage structure of stream macroinvertebrates changes with alterations in catchment or local land use. Our objective was to understand how the trophic ecology of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages responds to land use changes in tropical streams. We used the isotope methodology to assess how energy flow and trophic relations among macroinvertebrates were affected in environments affected by different land uses (natural cover, pasture, sugar cane plantation). Macroinvertebrates were sampled and categorized into functional feeding groups, and available trophic resources were sampled and evaluated for the isotopic composition of 13C and 15N along streams located in the Cerrado (neotropical savanna). Streams altered by pasture or sugar cane had wider and more overlapped trophic niches, which corresponded to more generalist feeding habits. In contrast, trophic groups in streams with native vegetation had narrower trophic niches with smaller overlaps, suggesting greater specialization. Pasture sites had greater ranges of resources exploited, indicating higher trophic diversity than sites with natural cover and sugar cane plantation. We conclude that agricultural land uses appears to alter the food base and shift macroinvertebrate assemblages towards more generalist feeding behaviors and greater overlap of the trophic niches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main manifestations of climate change will be increased rainfall variability. How to deal with this in agriculture will be a major societal challenge. In this paper we explore flexibility in land use, through deliberate seasonal adjustments in cropped area, as a specific strategy for coping with rainfall variability. Such adjustments are not incorporated in hydro-meteorological crop models commonly used for food security analyses. Our paper contributes to the literature by making a comprehensive model assessment of inter-annual variability in crop production, including both variations in crop yield and cropped area. The Ganges basin is used as a case study. First, we assessed the contribution of cropped area variability to overall variability in rice and wheat production by applying hierarchical partitioning on time-series of agricultural statistics. We then introduced cropped area as an endogenous decision variable in a hydro-economic optimization model (WaterWise), coupled to a hydrology-vegetation model (LPJmL), and analyzed to what extent its performance in the estimation of inter-annual variability in crop production improved. From the statistics, we found that in the period 1999–2009 seasonal adjustment in cropped area can explain almost 50% of variability in wheat production and 40% of variability in rice production in the Indian part of the Ganges basin. Our improved model was well capable of mimicking existing variability at different spatial aggregation levels, especially for wheat. The value of flexibility, i.e. the foregone costs of choosing not to crop in years when water is scarce, was quantified at 4% of gross margin of wheat in the Indian part of the Ganges basin and as high as 34% of gross margin of wheat in the drought-prone state of Rajasthan. We argue that flexibility in land use is an important coping strategy to rainfall variability in water stressed regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effectiveness of conservation interventions such as Payments for Environmental Services (PES) is often evaluated—if it is evaluated at all—only at the completion of the intervention. Since gains achieved by the intervention may be lost after it ends, even apparently successful interventions may not result in long-term conservation benefits, a problem known as that of permanence. This paper uses a unique dataset to examine the permanence of land use change induced by a short-term, asset-building PES program implemented in Quindío, Colombia, between 2003 and 2008. This the first PES program to have a control group for comparison. Under this program, PES had been found to have a positive and highly significant impact on land use. To assess the long-term permanence of these changes, both PES recipients and control households were re-surveyed in 2011, four years after the last payment was made. We find that the land use changes that had been induced by PES were broadly sustained in intervening years, with minor differences across specific practices and sub-groups of participants, indicating that these changes were in fact permanent. The patterns of change in the period after the PES program was completed also help better understand the reasons for the program’s success. These results suggest that, at least in the case of productive land uses such as silvopastoral practices under conditions such as those at the study site, asset-building PES programs can be effective at encouraging land owners to adopt environmentally-beneficial land management practices and that the benefits will persist after payments cease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Assessment and identification of spatial structures in the distribution and abundance of invasive species is important for unraveling the underlying ecological processes. The invasive agricultural insect pest Halyomorpha halys that causes severe economic losses in the United States is currently expanding both within United States and across Europe. We examined the drivers of H. halys invasion by characterizing the distribution and abundance patterns of H. halys and native stink bugs (Chinavia hilaris and Euschistus servus) across eight different spatial scales. We then quantified the interactive and individual influences of temperature, and measures of resource availability and distance from source populations, and their relevant spatial scales. We used Moran’s Eigenvector Maps based on Gabriel graph framework to quantify spatial relationships among the soybean fields in mid-Atlantic Unites States surveyed for stink bugs. Findings: Results from the multi-spatial scale, multivariate analyses showed that temperature and its interaction with resource availability and distance from source populations structures the patterns in H. halys at very broad spatial scale. H. halys abundance decreased with increasing average June temperature and distance from source population. H. halys were not recorded at fields with average June temperature higher than 23.5°C. In parts with suitable climate, high H. halys abundance was positively associated with percentage developed open area and percentage deciduous forests at 250m scale. Broad scale patterns in native stink bugs were positively associated with increasing forest cover and, in contrast to the invasive H. halys, increasing mean July temperature. Our results identify the contrasting role of temperature in structuring regional patterns in H. halys and native stink bugs, while demonstrating its interaction with resource availability and distance from source populations for structuring H. halys patterns. Conclusion: These results help predicting the pest potential of H. halys and vulnerability of agricultural systems at various regions, given the climatic conditions, and its interaction with resource availability and distance from source populations. Monitoring and control efforts within parts of the United States and Europe with more suitable climate could focus in areas of peri-urban developments with deciduous forests and other host plants, along with efforts to reduce propagule pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a gridded 8 km-resolution data product of the estimated composition of tree taxa at the time of Euro-American settlement of the northeastern United States and the statistical methodology used to produce the product from trees recorded by land surveyors. Composition is defined as the proportion of stems larger than approximately 20 cm diameter at breast height for 22 tree taxa, generally at the genus level. The data come from settlement-era public survey records that are transcribed and then aggregated spatially, giving count data. The domain is divided into two regions, eastern (Maine to Ohio) and midwestern (Indiana to Minnesota). Public Land Survey point data in the midwestern region (ca. 0.8-km resolution) are aggregated to a regular 8 km grid, while data in the eastern region, from Town Proprietor Surveys, are aggregated at the township level in irregularly-shaped local administrative units. The product is based on a Bayesian statistical model fit to the count data that estimates composition on the 8 km grid across the entire domain. The statistical model is designed to handle data from both the regular grid and the irregularly-shaped townships and allows us to estimate composition at locations with no data and to smooth over noise caused by limited counts in locations with data. Critically, the model also allows us to quantify uncertainty in our composition estimates, making the product suitable for applications employing data assimilation. We expect this data product to be useful for understanding the state of vegetation in the northeastern United States prior to large-scale Euro-American settlement. In addition to specific regional questions, the data product can also serve as a baseline against which to investigate how forests and ecosystems change after intensive settlement. The data product is being made available at the NIS data portal as version 1.0. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays we are seeing the largest biodiversity loss since the extinction of the dinosaurs. To conserve biodiversity it is essential to plan protected areas using a prioritization approach, which takes into account the current biodiversity value of the sites. Considering that in the Mediterranean Basin the agro-ecosystems are one of the most important parts of the landscape, the conservation of crops is essential to biodiversity conservation. In the framework of agro-ecosystem conservation, farmland birds play an important role because of their representativeness, and because of their steady decline in the last Century in Western Europe. The main aim of this research was to define if crop dominated landscapes could be useful for biodiversity conservation in a Mediterranean area in which the landscape was modified by humans in the last thousand years and was affected by the important biogeographical phenomenon of peninsula effect. To assess this, we identify the hotspots and the coldspots of bird diversity in southern Italy both during the winter and in the breeding season. In particular we used a scoring method, defining a biodiversity value for each cell of a 1-km grid superimposed on the study area, using data collected by fieldwork following a stratified random sampling design. This value was analysed by a multiple linear regression analysis and was predicted in the whole study area. Then we defined the hotspots and the coldspots of the study area as 15% of the cells with higher and lower value of biodiversity, respectively. Finally, we used GAP analysis to compare hotspot distribution with the current network of protected areas. This study showed that the winter hotspots of bird diversity were associated with marshes and water bodies, shrublands, and irrigated crops, whilst the breeding hotspots were associated with more natural areas (e.g. transitional wood/shrubs), such as open areas (natural grasslands, pastures and not irrigated crops). Moreover, the results underlined the negative effects of permanent crops, such as vineyards, olive groves, and orchards, in particular during the winter season. This research highlights the importance of farmland areas mainly for wintering species and the importance of open areas for breeding species in the Mediterranean Basin. This may be true even when the species’ spatial distribution could be affected by biogeography. An important result showed that the hotspots for breeding species cannot be used as a surrogate for the wintering species, which were often not considered in the planning of protected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last fifteen years, Payments for Environmental Services (PES) schemes have become very popular environmental policy instruments, but the academic literature has begun to question their additionality. The literature attempts to estimate the causal effect of these programs by applying impact evaluation (IE) techniques. However, PES programs are complex instruments and IE methods cannot be directly applied without adjustments. Based on a systematic review of the literature, this article proposes a framework for the methodological process of designing an IE for PES schemes. It revises and discusses the methodological choices at each step of the process and proposes guidelines for practitioners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two sediment records of dust deposition from Fish Lake, in southern Colorado, offer a new perspective on southwest United States (Southwest) aridity and dustiness over the last ~3000 years. Micro scanning X-ray fluorescence and grain size analysis provide separate measures of wind-deposited dust in the lake sediment. Together these new records confirm anomalous dustiness in the 19th and 20th centuries, associated with recent land disturbance, drought, and livestock grazing. Before significant anthropogenic influences, changes in drought frequency and aridity also generated atmospheric dust loading. Medieval times were associated with high levels of dustiness, coincident with widespread aridity. These records indicate the Southwest is naturally prone to dustiness. As global and regional temperatures rise and the Southwest shifts toward a more arid landscape, the Southwest will likely become dustier, driving negative impacts on snowpack and water availability, as well as human health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Better physical functioning in the elderly may be associated with higher physical activity levels. Since older adults spend a substantial part of the day in their residential neighborhood, the neighborhood physical environment may moderate associations between functioning and older adults’ physical activity. The present study investigated the moderating role of the objective and perceived physical environment on associations between Belgian older adults’ physical functioning and transport walking, recreational walking, and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Methods: Data from 438 older adults were included. Objective physical functioning was assessed using the Short Physical Performance Battery. Potential moderators included objective neighborhood walkability and perceptions of land use mix diversity, access to recreational facilities, access to services, street connectivity, physical barriers for walking, aesthetics, crime-related safety, traffic speeding-related safety, and walking infrastructure. Transport and recreational walking were self-reported, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity was assessed through accelerometers. Multi-level regression analyses were conducted using MLwiN to examine two-way interactions between functioning and the environment on both walking outcomes. Based on a previous study where environment x neighborhood income associations were found for Belgian older adults’ moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, three-way functioning x environment x income interactions were examined for moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Results: Objectively-measured walkability moderated the association between functioning and transport walking; this positive association was only present in high-walkable neighborhoods. Moreover, a three-way interaction was observed for moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Only in high-income, high-walkable neighborhoods, there was a positive association between functioning and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. No functioning x walkability interactions were observed for recreational walking, and none of the perceived environmental variables moderated the positive association between physical functioning and the physical activity outcomes. Conclusions: For older adults with better physical functioning, living in a high-walkable neighborhood could be beneficial to engage in more transport walking. Living in high-income, high-walkable neighborhoods and having better functioning might also be beneficial for more engagement in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. This might suggest a protective role of neighborhood walkability for preventing declining physical functioning and consequently decreasing physical activity levels in older adults. However, given the cross-sectional design of the present study, this suggestion needs to be confirmed through longitudinal assessment investigating over-time changes in the observed associations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Perennial cellulosic feedstocks may have potential to reduce life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by offsetting fossil fuels. However, this potential depends on meeting a number of important criteria involving land cover change, including avoiding displacement of agricultural production, not reducing uncultivated natural lands that provide biodiversity habitat and other valued ecosystem services, and avoiding the carbon debt (the amount of time needed to repay the initial carbon loss) that accompanies displacing natural lands. It is unclear whether recent agricultural expansion in the United States competes with lands potentially suited for bioenergy feedstocks. Here, we evaluate how recent land cover change (2008–2013) has affected the availability of lands potentially suited for bioenergy feedstock production in the U.S. Lake States (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan) and its impact on other natural ecosystems. The region is potentially well suited for a diversity of bioenergy production systems, both grasses and woody biomass, due to the widespread forest economy in the north and agricultural economy in the south. Based on remotely-sensed data, our results show that between 2008 and 2013, 836,000 ha of non-agricultural open lands were already converted to agricultural uses in the Lake States, a loss of nearly 37%. The greatest relative changes occurred in the southern half that includes some of the most diverse cultivable lands in the country. We use transition diagrams to reveal gross changes that can be obscured if only net change is considered. Our results indicate that expansion of row crops (corn, soybean) was responsible for the majority of open land loss. Even if recently lost open lands were brought into perennial feedstock production, there would a substantial carbon debt. This reduction in open land availability for biomass production is closing the window of opportunity to establish a sustainable cellulosic feedstock economy in the Lake States as mandated by current Federal policy, incurring a substantial GHG debt, and displacing a range of other natural ecosystems and their services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and daily maximum heat index (HImax) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (Tmin) and 7.3°C (HImax) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (Tmin) and 2.5°C (HImax), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (Tmin) and 8.3°C (HImax), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most evaluations of the effectiveness of PAs have relied on indirect estimates based on comparisons between protected and unprotected areas. Such methods can be biased when protection is not randomly assigned. We add to the growing literature on the impact of PAs by answering the following research questions: What is the impact of Chilean PAs on deforestation which occurred between 1986 and 2011? How do estimates of the impact of PAs vary when using only public land as control units? We show that the characteristics of the areas in which protected and unprotected lands are located differ significantly. To satisfactorily estimate the effects of PAs, we use matching methods to define adequate control groups, but not as in previous research. We construct control groups using separately non-protected private areas and non-protected public lands. We find that PAs avoid deforestation when using unprotected private lands as valid controls, however results show no impact when the control group is based only on unprotected public land. Different land management regimes, and higher levels of enforcement inside public lands may reduce the opportunity to add additional conservation benefits when the national systems for PAs are based on the protection of previously unprotected public lands. Given that not all PAs are established to avoid deforestation, results also admit the potential for future studies to include other outcomes including forest degradation (not just deforestation), biodiversity, wildlife, primary forests (not forests in general), among others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing upon the Landsat satellite images of Nanjing from 1985, 1995, 2001, 2007, and 2013, this paper integrates the convex hull analysis and common edge analysis at double scales, and develops a comprehensive matrix analysis to distinguish the different types of urban land expansion. The results show that Nanjing experienced rapid urban expansion, dominated by a mix of residential and manufacturing land from 1985 to 2013, which in turn has promoted Nanjing’s shift from a compact mononuclear city to a polycentric one. Spatial patterns of three specific types of growth, namely infilling, extension, and enclave were quite different in four consecutive periods. These patterns result primarily from the existing topographic constraints, as well as government-oriented urban planning and policies. By intersecting the function maps, we also reveal the functional evolution of newly-developed urban land. Moreover, both self-enhancing and mutual promotion of the newly developed functions are surveyed over the last decade. Our study confirms that the integration of a multi-scale method and multi-perspective analysis, such as the spatiotemporal patterns and functional evolution, helps us to better understand the rapid urban growth in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The globalisation of trade affects land use, food production and environments around the world. In principle, globalisation can maximise productivity and efficiency if competition prompts specialisation on the basis of productive capacity. In reality, however, such specialisation is often constrained by practical or political barriers, including those intended to ensure national or regional food security. These are likely to produce globally sub-optimal distributions of land uses. Both outcomes are subject to the responses of individual land managers to economic and environmental stimuli, and these responses are known to be variable and often (economically) irrational. We investigate the consequences of stylised food security policies and globalisation of agricultural markets on land use patterns under a variety of modelled forms of land manager behaviour, including variation in production levels, tenacity, land use intensity and multi-functionality. We find that a system entirely dedicated to regional food security is inferior to an entirely globalised system in terms of overall production levels, but that several forms of behaviour limit the difference between the two, and that variations in land use intensity and functionality can substantially increase the provision of food and other ecosystem services in both cases. We also find emergent behaviour that results in the abandonment of productive land, the slowing of rates of land use change and the fragmentation or, conversely, concentration of land uses following changes in demand levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antibiotic-resistant bacteria and genes are recognized as new environmental pollutants that warrant special concern. There were few reports on veterinary antibiotic-resistant bacteria and genes in China. This work systematically analyzed the prevalence and distribution of sulfonamide resistance genes in soils from the environments around poultry and livestock farms in Jiangsu Province, Southeastern China. The results showed that the animal manure application made the spread and abundance of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) increasingly in the soil. The frequency of sulfonamide resistance genes was sul1 > sul2 > sul3 in pig-manured soil DNA and sul2 > sul1 > sul3 in chicken-manured soil DNA. Further analysis suggested that the frequency distribution of the sul genes in the genomic DNA and plasmids of the SR isolates from manured soil was sul2 > sul1 > sul3 overall (p<0.05). The combination of sul1 and sul2 was the most frequent, and the co-existence of sul1 and sul3 was not found either in the genomic DNA or plasmids. The sample type, animal type and sampling time can influence the prevalence and distribution pattern of sulfonamide resistance genes. The present study also indicated that Bacillus, Pseudomonas and Shigella were the most prevalent sul-positive genera in the soil, suggesting a potential human health risk. The above results could be important in the evaluation of antibiotic-resistant bacteria and genes from manure as sources of agricultural soil pollution; the results also demonstrate the necessity and urgency of the regulation and supervision of veterinary antibiotics in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The bacterium Xylella fastidiosa is a plant pathogen with a history of economically damaging introductions of subspecies to regions where its other subspecies are native. Genetic evidence is presented demonstrating the introduction of two new taxa into Central America and their introgression into the native subspecies, X. fastidiosa subsp. fastidiosa. The data are from 10 genetic outliers detected by multilocus sequence typing (MLST) of isolates from Costa Rica. Six (five from oleander, one from coffee) defined a new sequence type (ST53) that carried alleles at six of the eight loci sequenced (five of the seven MLST loci) diagnostic of the South American subspecies Xylella fastidiosa subsp. pauca which causes two economically damaging plant diseases, citrus variegated chlorosis and coffee leaf scorch. The two remaining loci of ST53 carried alleles from what appears to be a new South American form of X. fastidiosa. Four isolates, classified as X. fastidiosa subsp. fastidiosa, showed a low level of introgression of non-native DNA. One grapevine isolate showed introgression of an allele from X. fastidiosa subsp. pauca while the other three (from citrus and coffee) showed introgression of an allele with similar ancestry to the alleles of unknown origin in ST53. The presence of X. fastidiosa subsp. pauca in Central America is troubling given its disease potential, and establishes another route for the introduction of this economically damaging subspecies into the US or elsewhere, a threat potentially compounded by the presence of a previously unknown form of X. fastidiosa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distribution models often use climate data to assess contemporary and/or future ranges for animal or plant species. Land use and land cover (LULC) data are important predictor variables for determining species range, yet are rarely used when modeling future distributions. In this study, maximum entropy modeling was used to construct species distribution maps for 50 North American bird species to determine relative contributions of climate and LULC for contemporary (2001) and future (2075) time periods. Species presence data were used as a dependent variable, while climate, LULC, and topographic data were used as predictor variables. Results varied by species, but in general, measures of model fit for 2001 indicated significantly poorer fit when either climate or LULC data were excluded from model simulations. Climate covariates provided a higher contribution to 2001 model results than did LULC variables, although both categories of variables strongly contributed. The area deemed to be “suitable” for 2001 species presence was strongly affected by the choice of model covariates, with significantly larger ranges predicted when LULC was excluded as a covariate. Changes in species ranges for 2075 indicate much larger overall range changes due to projected climate change than due to projected LULC change. However, the choice of study area impacted results for both current and projected model applications, with truncation of actual species ranges resulting in lower model fit scores and increased difficulty in interpreting covariate impacts on species range. Results indicate species-specific response to climate and LULC variables; however, both climate and LULC variables clearly are important for modeling both contemporary and potential future species ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human-caused forest transitions are documented worldwide, especially during periods when land use by dense agriculturally-based populations intensified. However, the rate at which prehistoric human activities led to permanent deforestation is poorly resolved. In the South Island, New Zealand, the arrival of Polynesians c. 750 years ago resulted in dramatic forest loss and conversion of nearly half of native forests to open vegetation. This transformation, termed the Initial Burning Period, is documented in pollen and charcoal records, but its speed has been poorly constrained. High-resolution chronologies developed with a series of AMS radiocarbon dates from two lake sediment cores suggest the shift from forest to shrubland occurred within decades rather than centuries at drier sites. We examine two sites representing extreme examples of the magnitude of human impacts: a drier site that was inherently more vulnerable to human-set fires and a wetter, less burnable site. The astonishing rate of deforestation at the hands of small transient populations resulted from the intrinsic vulnerability of the native flora to fire and from positive feedbacks in post-fire vegetation recovery that increased landscape flammability. Spatially targeting burning in highly-flammable seral vegetation in forests rarely experiencing fire was sufficient to create an alternate fire-prone stable state. The New Zealand example illustrates how seemingly stable forest ecosystems can experience rapid and permanent conversions. Forest loss in New Zealand is among the fastest ecological transitions documented in the Holocene; yet equally rapid transitions can be expected in present-day regions wherever positive feedbacks support alternate fire-inhibiting, fire-prone stable states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ammonia emission from animal production is a major environmental problem and has impacts on the animal health and working environment inside production houses. Ammonia is formed in manure by the enzymatic degradation of urinary urea and catalyzed by urease that is present in feces. We have determined and compared the urease activity in feces and manure (a urine and feces mixture) from pigs and cattle at 25°C by using Michaelis-Menten kinetics. To obtain accurate estimates of kinetic parameters Vmax and K'm, we used a 5 min reaction time to determine the initial reaction velocities based on total ammoniacal nitrogen (TAN) concentrations. The resulting Vmax value (mmol urea hydrolyzed per kg wet feces per min) was 2.06±0.08 mmol urea/kg/min and 0.80±0.04 mmol urea/kg/min for pig feces and cattle feces, respectively. The K'm values were 32.59±5.65 mmol urea/l and 15.43±2.94 mmol urea/l for pig feces and cattle feces, respectively. Thus, our results reveal that both the Vmax and K'm values of the urease activity for pig feces are more than 2-fold higher than those for cattle feces. The difference in urea hydrolysis rates between animal species is even more significant in fresh manure. The initial velocities of TAN formation are 1.53 mM/min and 0.33 mM/min for pig and cattle manure, respectively. Furthermore, our investigation shows that the maximum urease activity for pig feces occurs at approximately pH 7, and in cattle feces it is closer to pH 8, indicating that the predominant fecal ureolytic bacteria species differ between animal species. We believe that our study contributes to a better understanding of the urea hydrolysis process in manure and provides a basis for more accurate and animal-specific prediction models for urea hydrolysis rates and ammonia concentration in manures and thus can be used to predict ammonia volatilization rates from animal production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Haw River, a high order river in the southeastern United States, is characterized by severe bank erosion and geomorphic change from historical conditions of clear waters and connected floodplains. In 2014 it was named one of the 10 most threatened rivers in the United States by American Rivers. Like many developed areas, the region has a history of disturbance including extensive upland soil loss from agriculture, dams, and upstream urbanization. The primary objective of this study was to identify the mechanisms controlling channel form and erosion of the Haw River. Field measurements including bank height, bankfull height, bank angle, root depth and density, riparian land cover and slope, surface protection, river width, and bank retreat were collected at 87 sites along 43.5 km of river. A Bank Erosion Hazard Index (BEHI) was calculated for each study site. Mean bank height was 11.8 m, mean width was 84.3 m, and bank retreat for 2005/2007-2011/2013 was 2.3 m. The greatest bank heights, BEHI values, and bank retreat were adjacent to riparian areas with low slope (<2). This is in contrast to previous studies which identify high slope as a risk factor for erosion. Most of the soils in low slope riparian areas were alluvial, suggesting sediment deposition from upland row crop agriculture and/or flooding. Bank retreat was not correlated to bank heights or BEHI values. Historical dams (1.2–3 m height) were not a significant factor. Erosion of the Haw River in the study section of the river (25% of the river length) contributed 205,320 m3 of sediment and 3759 kg of P annually. Concentration of suspended solids in the river increased with discharge. In conclusion, the Haw River is an unstable system, with river bank erosion and geomodification potential influenced by riparian slope and varied flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interannual variation in plant phenology can lead to major modifications in the interannual variation of net ecosystem production (NEP) and net biome production (NBP) as a result of recent climate change in croplands. Continuous measurements of carbon flux using the eddy covariance technique were conducted in two winter wheat and summer maize double-cropped croplands during 2003–2012 in Yucheng and during 2007–2012 in Luancheng on the North China Plain. Our results showed that the difference between the NEP and the NBP, i.e., the crop economic yield, was conservative even though the NEP and the NBP for both sites exhibited marked fluctuations during the years of observation. A significant and positive relationship was found between the annual carbon uptake period (CUP) and the NEP as well as the NBP. The NEP and the NBP would increase by 14.8±5.2 and 14.7±6.6 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively, if one CUP-day was extended. A positive relationship also existed between the CUP and the NEP as well as the NBP for winter wheat and summer maize, respectively. The annual air temperature, through its negative effect on the start date of the CUP, determined the length of the CUP. The spring temperature was the main indirect factor controlling the annual carbon sequestration when a one-season crop (winter wheat) was considered. Thus, global warming can be expected to extend the length of the CUP and thus increase carbon sequestration in croplands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The local dispersal of polyphagous, mobile insects within agricultural systems impacts pest management. In the mid-Atlantic region of the United States, stink bugs, especially the invasive Halyomorpha halys (Stål 1855), contribute to economic losses across a range of cropping systems. Here, we characterized the density of stink bugs along the field edges of field corn and soybean at different study sites. Specifically, we examined the influence of adjacent managed and natural habitats on the density of stink bugs in corn and soybean fields at different distances along transects from the field edge. We also quantified damage to corn grain, and to soybean pods and seeds, and measured yield in relation to the observed stink bug densities at different distances from field edge. Highest density of stink bugs was limited to the edge of both corn and soybean fields. Fields adjacent to wooded, crop and building habitats harbored higher densities of stink bugs than those adjacent to open habitats. Damage to corn kernels and to soybean pods and seeds increased with stink bug density in plots and was highest at the field edges. Stink bug density was also negatively associated with yield per plant in soybean. The spatial pattern of stink bugs in both corn and soybeans, with significant edge effects, suggests the use of pest management strategies for crop placement in the landscape, as well as spatially targeted pest suppression within fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agent-based models (ABMs) have been widely used to study socioecological systems. They are useful for studying such systems because of their ability to incorporate micro-level behaviors among interacting agents, and to understand emergent phenomena due to these interactions. However, ABMs are inherently stochastic and require proper handling of uncertainty. We propose a simulation framework based on quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to build parsimonious ABMs that serve two purposes: exploration of the outcome space to simulate low-probability but high-consequence events that may have significant policy implications, and explanation of model behavior to describe the system with higher accuracy. The proposed framework is applied to the problem of modeling farmland conservation resulting in land use change. We employ output variance decomposition based on quasi-random sampling of the input space and perform three computational experiments. First, we perform uncertainty analysis to improve model legitimacy, where the distribution of results informs us about the expected value that can be validated against independent data, and provides information on the variance around this mean as well as the extreme results. In our last two computational experiments, we employ sensitivity analysis to produce two simpler versions of the ABM. First, input space is reduced only to inputs that produced the variance of the initial ABM, resulting in a model with output distribution similar to the initial model. Second, we refine the value of the most influential input, producing a model that maintains the mean of the output of initial ABM but with less spread. These simplifications can be used to 1) efficiently explore model outcomes, including outliers that may be important considerations in the design of robust policies, and 2) conduct explanatory analysis that exposes the smallest number of inputs influencing the steady state of the modeled system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Installation of impervious surfaces in urban areas has attracted increasing attention due to its potential hazard to urban ecosystems. Urban soils are suggested to have robust carbon (C) sequestration capacity; however, the C stocks and dynamics in the soils covered by impervious surfaces that dominate urban areas are still not well characterized. We compared soil organic C (SOC) densities and their stabilities under impervious surface, determined by a 28-d incubation experiment, with those in open areas in Yixing City, China. The SOC density (0–20 cm) under impervious surfaces was, on average, 68% lower than that in open areas. Furthermore, there was a significantly (P<0.05) positive correlation between the densities of SOC and total nitrogen (N) in the open soils, whereas the correlation was not apparent for the impervious-covered soils, suggesting that the artificial soil sealing in urban areas decoupled the cycle of C and N. Cumulative CO2-C evolved during the 28-d incubation was lower from the impervious-covered soils than from the open soils, and agreed well with a first-order decay model (Ct = C1+C0(1-e-kt)). The model results indicated that the SOC underlying capped surfaces had weaker decomposability and lower turnover rate. Our results confirm the unique character of urban SOC, especially that beneath impervious surface, and suggest that scientific and management views on regional SOC assessment may need to consider the role of urban carbon stocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the wake of urbanisation processes and the constitution of metropolitan regions, the role of the city's rural surroundings is receiving more attention from researchers and planners as rural areas offer various (cultural) ecosystem services for the urban population. Urban dwellers increasingly desire recreation and landscape experience. Although this need for recreation is generally recognized, few studies have focused on the question of people's preferences for certain types and characteristics of outdoor recreation areas in relation to the frequency of use. In order to acquire baseline data on this subject, the main objectives of this study were to explore recreation preferences of urban dwellers and the relation between actual use and perceived value of recreation areas in a case study in the Hamburg Metropolitan Region (Germany). In a social survey, Hamburg residents (n = 400) were asked about their preferences and use of four important regional recreation areas with different landscape characteristics in face-to-face interviews in different locations in the city. We found that both outdoor recreation within and outside of the city were fairly or very important for more than 70% of the questioned urban dwellers. Interestingly, the preference for a recreation area outside of the city did not depend on the frequency of use, which indicates that certain recreation areas had a symbolic value besides their use value. When people were questioned on the characteristics of recreation areas, perceived naturalness was found to be strongly related to preference. Respondents considered the diversity, uniqueness, and naturalness of the landscape to be far more important than the accessibility of the recreation areas and the provision of service facilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]