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Land use influences the prevalence and distribution of ticks due to the intimate relationship of ticks with their environment. This relationship occurs because land use alters two essential tick requirements: vertebrate hosts for blood meals and a suitable microclimate when off-host. Given the risks to human and animal health associated with pathogens transmitted by ticks, there is an ongoing need to understand the impact of environmental drivers on tick distributions. Here, we assessed how landscape features, neighborhood effects, and edges influenced tick occupancy and abundance across an agricultural landscape in southern Africa. We found that Rhipicephalus appendiculatus and Rhipicephalus simus increased in abundance closer to protected savanna, while Haemaphysalis elliptica increased in abundance closer to human habitation. The composition of the landscape surrounding savanna patches also differentially influenced the occupancy of each tick species; H. elliptica was more likely to be found in savanna patches surrounded by subsistence agriculture while R. appendiculatus and R. simus were more likely to be found in savanna surrounded by sugarcane monocultures. At the local scale we found that R. appendiculatus and R. simus avoided savanna edges. The availability of hosts and variation in vegetation structure between commercial agriculture, subsistence agriculture, and savanna likely drove the distribution of ticks at the landscape scale. Understanding how anthropogenic land use influences where ticks occur is useful for land use planning and for assessing public and animal health risks associated with ticks and tick-borne diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In urban ecosystems, woody vegetation communities and the ecosystem functions and habitat they provide are largely controlled by humans. These communities are assembled during development, landscaping, and maintenance processes according to decisions made by human actors. While vegetation communities on residential land uses are increasingly well studied, these efforts generally have not extended to other land uses, including commercial property. To fill this gap, I surveyed tree and shrub communities on office developments located in Redmond and Bellevue, Washington, USA, and explored whether aggregated neighborhood and parcel scale socio-economic variables or variables describing the outcome of development and landscaping actions better explained variation in vegetation communities. I found that both tree and shrub communities on office developments are heterogenous, with sites characterized by native or ornamental vegetation. The heterogeneity I observed in vegetation communities within one land use suggests that different ecosystem functions, habitat quality, and habitat quantities are provided on office developments. Greater provision of e.g. native conifer habitat is possible using currently existing developments as models. Additionally, the outcome of development and landscaping decisions explained more variation in community composition than the socio-economic factors found significant on residential property. Together with previous research showing that residential property owner attitudes and actions are more important than socio-economic descriptors, my results suggest that individual motivators, including intended audience, may be the primary determinant of urban vegetation communities. Future urban ecology research should consider sampling the vegetation gradient within land uses, better understanding individual motivation for vegetation management, and creating models of the urban ecosystems that account for alternate decision pathways on different land uses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to evaluate (1) effects of bark stripping and climatic factors on radial growth of Picea abies /L./ Karst., (2) production and structural differences between stands established on the forestland and abandoned farmland (afforested farmland–henceforth, farmland), and (3) interaction among the losses caused by ungulate damages, production, diversity, and soil types. Data acquired from four permanent research plots (PRPs) located on the forestland and eight PRPs on the farmland were used. A number of tree- and stand-level models, stand structural indices, tree-rings, and climate characteristics were analysed to evaluate the hypotheses. The results show significantly higher means of DBH, tree height and basal area on the forestland compared to those on the farmland. There was a larger mean standing stem volume on the forestland (466 m3 ha–1) compared to farmland (770 m3 ha–1). Significant difference was observed between the mean DBH and mean stem volume of healthy trees compared to those of the trees with substantial damage (girth damage >1/3 of stem circumference). A greater extent of the girth damage was found on 86% trees on the farmland, while 54% damage on the forestland. About 62% bark-strip damage was further deteriorated by rot infection on the farmland, while on the forestland such an infection was only for 39% trees. The precipitation significantly positively affected the radial growth of trees that were largely affected by ungulate damages on the farmland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a method for calculating the Acute Insecticide Toxicity Loading (AITL) on US agricultural lands and surrounding areas and an assessment of the changes in AITL from 1992 through 2014. The AITL method accounts for the total mass of insecticides used in the US, acute toxicity to insects using honey bee contact and oral LD50 as reference values for arthropod toxicity, and the environmental persistence of the pesticides. This screening analysis shows that the types of synthetic insecticides applied to agricultural lands have fundamentally shifted over the last two decades from predominantly organophosphorus and N-methyl carbamate pesticides to a mix dominated by neonicotinoids and pyrethroids. The neonicotinoids are generally applied to US agricultural land at lower application rates per acre; however, they are considerably more toxic to insects and generally persist longer in the environment. We found a 48- and 4-fold increase in AITL from 1992 to 2014 for oral and contact toxicity, respectively. Neonicotinoids are primarily responsible for this increase, representing between 61 to nearly 99 percent of the total toxicity loading in 2014. The crops most responsible for the increase in AITL are corn and soybeans, with particularly large increases in relative soybean contributions to AITL between 2010 and 2014. Oral exposures are of potentially greater concern because of the relatively higher toxicity (low LD50s) and greater likelihood of exposure from residues in pollen, nectar, guttation water, and other environmental media. Using AITL to assess oral toxicity by class of pesticide, the neonicotinoids accounted for nearly 92 percent of total AITL from 1992 to 2014. Chlorpyrifos, the fifth most widely used insecticide during this time contributed just 1.4 percent of total AITL based on oral LD50s. Although we use some simplifying assumptions, our screening analysis demonstrates an increase in pesticide toxicity loading over the past 26 years, which potentially threatens the health of honey bees and other pollinators and may contribute to declines in beneficial insect populations as well as insectivorous birds and other insect consumers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study was to explore the correlations between land use/cover change and cultivated land ecological security in flatland and mountainous areas. Firstly, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of land use/cover change are described in conjunction with ArcGIS10.5 software based on remote sensing images of 2005 and 2015. Then, by establishing a pressure-support framework as an assessment indicator system and developing an improved BP neural network model via a genetic algorithm with the help of MATLAB2016a, the spatiotemporal dynamic changes of cultivated land ecological security in Yuxi City from 2005 to 2015 are evaluated. The results showed that the transformation of farmland area accounted for a large proportion of increased constructive land and land use/cover spatial variations were significantly different among counties, which manifested the changes in farmland and the construction land in flatland areas but also facilitated a mutual transformation of forest and grass in mountainous areas. Moreover, ecological security status presented a clear difference among counties due to their different land use/cover changes. The ecological security state of the flatland expressed a higher ecological pressure and lower ecological support, so the security grade was IV. Otherwise, the ecological security was superior and the security grade was level II or I in the mountainous areas. Thus, protection strategies for ecological security should be differentiated in the flatland areas and mountainous areas due to their different ecological security status brought by land use/cover change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the stability and fertility of soil and is influenced by different management practice. We quantified active and passive carbon pools from total soil organic carbon (TOC) in seven different land use systems of northeast India. TOC was highest (2.75%) in natural forest and lowest in grassland (1.31%) and it decreased with increasing depth in different pools of lability. Very Labile Carbon (VLC) fraction ranged from 36.11 to 42.74% of TOC across different land use system. Active carbon (AC) pool was highest in Wet Rice Cultivation (61.64%) and lowest (58.71%) in natural forest. Higher AC pools (VLC and less labile) in most land use systems barring natural forests suggest that the land use systems in the region are vulnerable to land use change and must adopt suitable management practice to harness carbon sequestration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bosten Lake is an important region of Northwest China that has transformed from a freshwater lake to a saltwater lake since the 1970s. The water quality in the Bosten Lake basin is important for social and economic development, and nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are the key indicators of water quality. The land use data, precipitation data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model were used to simulate the N and P exports of the Bosten Lake basin. The spatial and temporal dynamics of nitrogen and phosphorus exports, and the response of nitrogen and phosphorus exports to land use change and precipitation change were analyzed between 2000 and 2015. The results show that the amount of N and P exports increased during 2000–2015, and the N and P exports are mainly distributed around Bosten Lake. The N and P exports are greatly affected by cultivated land, built-up areas and grassland, while they are less affected by other land use types. The high precipitation areas with small exports of N and P are mainly distributed in mountain areas, while small precipitation areas with large exports of N and P are distributed in plains where the cultivated land and built-up areas are concentrated. The InVEST model can be used in Northwest China, and the statistical downscaling of reanalysis precipitation data can be used in the InVEST model to improve the simulation accuracy in the data scarce regions of Northwest China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land cover change is a dynamic phenomenon driven by synergetic biophysical and socioeconomic effects. It involves massive transitions from natural to less natural habitats and thereby threatens ecosystems and the services they provide. To retain intact ecosystems and reduce land cover change to a minimum of natural transition processes, a dense network of protected areas has been established across Europe. However, even protected areas and in particular the zones around protected areas have been shown to undergo land cover changes. The aim of our study was to compare land cover changes in protected areas, non-protected areas, and 1 km buffer zones around protected areas and analyse their relationship to climatic and socioeconomic factors across Europe between 2000 and 2012 based on earth observation data. We investigated land cover flows describing major change processes: urbanisation, afforestation, deforestation, intensification of agriculture, extensification of agriculture, and formation of water bodies. Based on boosted regression trees, we modelled correlations between land cover flows and climatic and socioeconomic factors. The results show that land cover changes were most frequent in 1 km buffer zones around protected areas (3.0% of all buffer areas affected). Overall, land cover changes within protected areas were less frequent than outside, although they still amounted to 18,800 km2 (1.5% of all protected areas) from 2000 to 2012. In some parts of Europe, urbanisation and intensification of agriculture still accounted for up to 25% of land cover changes within protected areas. Modelling revealed meaningful relationships between land cover changes and a combination of influencing factors. Demographic factors (accessibility to cities and population density) were most important for coarse-scale patterns of land cover changes, whereas fine-scale patterns were most related to longitude (representing the general east/west economic gradient) and latitude (representing the north/south climatic gradient). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taking inspiration from the archaeology of the Texas Coastal Plain (TCP), we develop an ecological theory of population distribution among mobile hunter-gatherers. This theory proposes that, due to the heterogeneity of resources in space and time, foragers create networks of habitats that they access through residential cycling and shared knowledge. The degree of cycling that individuals exhibit in creating networks of habitats, encoded through social relationships, depends on the relative scarcity of resources and fluctuations in those resources. Using a dynamic model of hunter-gatherer population distribution, we illustrate that increases in population density, coupled with shocks to a biophysical or social system, creates a selective environment that favors habitat partitioning and investments in social mechanisms that control the residential cycling of foragers on a landscape. Our work adds a layer of realism to Ideal Distribution Models by adding a time allocation decision process in a variable environment and illustrates a general variance reduction, safe-operating space tradeoff among mobile human foragers that drives social change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use and land cover change induced by large scale ecological restoration programs has a significant impact on the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle, especially on the net primary productivity (NPP) in arid and semi-arid regions. This study investigated the change in NPP caused by the large-scale ecological restoration in the Chinese Loess Plateau (LPR) region from 1986 to 2015 based on land cover datasets and NPP calculated using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model. The results indicated that the annual total NPP exhibited a significant uptrend (P < 0.01) throughout the whole vegetation restoration region during the last 30 years, with an annual increase of 0.137 Tg C. A significant abrupt change was detected in 2006 for the annual total NPP series. Over half of the restoration region showed an increase in NPP in the past three decades, however, about 30~40% of the vegetation restoration region exhibited NPP loss before 2006, but subsequently NPP loss was found in only approximately 20% of the study region. Overall, the increase in NPP attributed to the vegetation restoration reached 51.14 Tg C in the past three decades, indicating that these large-scale vegetation restoration programs increased the carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in the Loess Plateau. The findings of this study improve our understanding of the effects of the green campaign on terrestrial ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mangroves play an essential ecological role in the maintenance of the coastal zone and are extremely important for the socioeconomics of coastal communities. However, mangrove ecosystems are impacted by a range of anthropogenic pressures, and the loss of this habitat can be attributed primarily to the human occupation of the coastal zone. In the present study, we analyzed the spatial patterns of land use in the mangrove of the Brazilian Amazon coast, and evaluated the anthropogenic drivers of this impact, using a remote sensing approach. We mapped the road network using RapidEye images, and human settlements using global data. The results of these analyses indicate that the Brazilian Amazon coast has a low population density and low rates of anthropogenic impact in most of the coastal microregions investigated, factors that contribute to the maintenance and conservation of the region’s mangrove. The study also revealed that the paved road network is one of the principal drivers of land use in the mangrove, whereas other factors, such as population density, urban centers, and the number of settlements are much less important. While the region has 2024 km of paved highways, unpaved roads (17,496 km) facilitate access to the mangrove, with approximately 90% of anthropogenic impact being recorded within a 3 km radius of these roads. While the network of paved highways is relatively reduced in extension, preventive measures are urgently required to impede any major shift in the current scenario, caused by the expansion of major development programs. The results of the study indicate that biophysical, economic, and political factors may also contribute to the reduction, stability, and development of one of the world’s largest areas of mangrove forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animal and plant species often face multiple threats simultaneously. We explored the relative impact of three major threats on populations of the endangered San Joaquin kit fox. This species was once widely distributed across the southern San Joaquin Valley, California, USA, but agriculture and urban development have replaced much of its natural habitat. We modeled impacts of climate change, land-use change, and rodenticide exposure on kit fox populations using a spatially explicit, individual-based population model from 2000 to 2050 for the Central Valley, California. Our study indicates that land-use change will likely have the largest impact on kit fox populations. Land development has the potential to decrease populations by approximately 15% under a compact growth scenario in which projected population increases are accommodated within existing urban areas, and 17% under a business-as-usual scenario in which future population growth increases the developed area around urban centers. Plausible scenarios for exposure to pesticides suggest a reduction in kit fox populations by approximately 13%. By contrast, climate change has the potential to ameliorate some of these impacts. Climate-change induced vegetation shifts have the potential to increase total available kit fox habitat and could drive population increases of up to 7%. These vegetation shifts could also reduce movement barriers and create opportunities for hybridization between the endangered San Joaquin kit fox and the more widely distributed desert kit fox, found in the Mojave Desert. In contrast to these beneficial impacts, increasing climate extremes raise the probability of the kit fox population dropping below critical levels. Taken together, these results paint a complex picture of how an at-risk species is likely to respond to multiple threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fecal pollution management remains one of the biggest challenges for water quality authorities worldwide. Advanced fecal pollution source identification technologies are now available that can provide quantitative information from many animal groups. As public interest in these methodologies grows, it is vital to use standardized procedures with clearly defined data acceptance metrics and conduct field studies demonstrating the use of these techniques to help resolve real-world water quality challenges. Here we apply recently standardized human-associated qPCR methods with custom data acceptance metrics (HF183/BacR287 and HumM2), along with established procedures for ruminant (Rum2Bac), cattle (CowM2 and CowM3), canine (DG3 and DG37), and avian (GFD) fecal pollution sources to (i) demonstrate the feasibility of implementing standardized qPCR procedures in a large-scale field study, and (ii) characterize trends in fecal pollution sources in the research area. A total of 602 water samples were collected over a one-year period at 29 sites along the Trask, Kilchis, and Tillamook rivers and tributaries in the Tillamook Bay Watershed (OR, USA). Host-associated qPCR results were combined with high-resolution geographic information system (GIS) land use and general indicator bacteria (E. coli) measurements to elucidate water quality fecal pollution trends. Results demonstrate the feasibility of implementing standardized fecal source identification qPCR methods with established data acceptance metrics in a large-scale field study leading to new investigative leads suggesting that elevated E. coli levels may be linked to specific pollution sources and land use activities in the Tillamook Bay Watershed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deterioration of water quality has become a primary environmental concern worldwide. Understanding the status of water quality and identifying the influencing factors are important for water resources management. However, reported analyses have mostly been conducted in small and focused areas. It is still unclear if factors driving spatial variation in water quality would be different in extended spatial scales. In this paper, we analyzed spatial pattern of inland surface water quality in China using a dataset with four water quality parameters (i.e., pH, DO, NH4+-N and CODMn) and the water quality level. We tested the effects of anthropogenic (i.e., land use and socio-economic) and natural (i.e., climatic and topographic) factors on spatial variation in water quality. The study concluded that the overall inland surface water quality in China was at level III (fair). Water quality level was strongly correlated with CODMn and NH4+-N concentration. In contrast to reported studies that suggested land use patterns were the determinants of inland surface water quality, this study revealed that both anthropogenic and natural factors played important roles in explaining spatial variation of inland surface water quality in China. Among the tested explanatory variables, mean elevation within watershed appeared as the best predictor for pH, while annual precipitation and mean air temperature were the most important explanatory variables for CODMn and DO, respectively. NH4+-N concentration and water quality level were most strongly correlated with the percent of forest cover in watershed. Compared to studies at smaller spatial scales, this study found different influencing factors of surface water quality, suggesting that factors may play different roles at different spatial scales of consideration. Therefore management policies and measures in water quality control must be established and implemented accordingly. Since currently adopted parameters for monitoring of inland surface water quality in China are largely influenced by natural variables, additional physicochemical and biological indicators are needed for a robust assessment of human impacts on water quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concordance among wetland physicochemical conditions, vegetation, and surrounding land cover may result from the influence of land cover on the sources of plant propagules, on physicochemical conditions, and their subsequent determination of growing conditions. Alternatively, concordance may result if differences in climate, soils, and species pools are spatially confounded with differences in human population density and land conversion. Further, we expect that land cover within catchment boundaries will be more predictive than land cover in symmetrical buffers if runoff is a major pathway. We measured concordance between land cover, wetland vegetation and physicochemical conditions in 48 prairie pothole wetlands, controlling for inter-wetland distance. We contrasted land-cover data collected over a four-year period by multiple extraction approaches including topographically-delineated catchments and nested 30 m to 5,000 m radius buffers. After factoring out inter-wetland distance, physiochemical conditions were significantly concordant with land cover. Vegetation was not significantly concordant with land cover, though it was strongly and significantly concordant with physicochemical conditions. More, concordance was as strong when land cover was extracted from buffers <500 m in radius as from catchments, indicating the mechanism responsible is not topographically constrained. We conclude that local landscape structure does not directly influence wetland vegetation composition, but rather that vegetation depends on 1) physicochemical conditions in the wetland that are affected by surrounding land cover and on 2) regional factors such as the vegetation species pool and geographic gradients in climate, soil type, and land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flooding is one of the most disastrous global hazards, which has been occurring more frequently in recent times. It is observed that climate change is likely to increase the intensity and the frequency of floods and river basins have become more vulnerable to fluvial flooding. In this study, the impact of climate change on fluvial flooding was analyzed over the Adyar sub-basin. This study applied statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) data in a CMIP5 dataset of IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5). Based on the performance to simulate the observed climate, four GCMs, namely, cesm1-cam5, mpi-esm-mr, ncar-ccsm4, and bnu-esm, for RCP 4.5 were selected for projections of the future scenario. The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for the past and future scenarios were derived from the IMD-observed and GCM-projected rainfall data. Integrated flood modeling was performed with hydrologic (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (HEC-RAS) models. Finally, in order to visualize the inundation areas according to the future climate projection, flood inundation maps were prepared geospatially using the ArcGIS software. For the 100-year return period, the results predict that the peak discharge for the future climate scenario would increase by 34.3%–91.9% as compared to the present climate scenario. Similarly, the future projections show an increase in the flooded area ranging from 12.6% to 26.4% based on GCMs. This simulation helps in understanding the flood risk over the Adyar sub-basin under the changing climate and the requirement for the regulation of developmental activities over the flood-prone areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological communities are structured by multiple processes operating at multiple scales yet understanding the scale-dependency of these processes remains an open challenge. This might be particularly true for parasites, for which biotic rather than abiotic processes may play a primary role in structuring communities. Focusing on vines, a group of structural parasites that gain access to the canopy using different climbing mechanisms, we examined the influence of abiotic factors in tandem with host-parasite and parasite-parasite interactions in the assembly of tropical vine communities. Two synthetic variables, namely Climate1 and landscape Variety, were consistently important in explaining variation in species richness and diversity, as well as species composition, but their importance varied with scale. Whereas Climate1 summarizes the largest variability among climatic variables, landscape Variety expresses landscape heterogeneity within a neighborhood. Significant patterns of species co-occurrences suggest that vine-vine interactions also contribute to vine community assembly. Our results may be critical to understand vine proliferation and help design management strategies for their control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural lands are the widest Human-modified ecosystems, making crop production the most extensive form of land use on Earth. However, in conventional agricultural land management, soil erosion may be boosted up to 1–2 orders of magnitude higher than the natural rates of soil production, making unproductive about the 30% of the world’s arable. Nowadays in Europe, vineyards represent the most erosion-prone agricultural lands, especially in Mediterranean countries, showing the highest erosion rates in comparison to other type of land uses. Prosecco wine is produced in NE Italy by a rate of 400 M bottles per year, with the fastest growing demand in the global market at present. A production of 90 M bottles year-1 is currently running in the historical Prosecco DOCG (215 km2), in a steep hilly landscape of Veneto Region (Conegliano-Valdobbiadene). To sustain wine production, agricultural intensification is at present increasing, by re-setting of hillslopes and land use changes towards new vineyard plantations. The aim of this study is to estimate and to map potential soil erosion rate, calculating a sort of “soil footprint” for wine production in different agricultural land-management scenarios. RUSLE model was adopted to estimate potential soil erosion in Mg ha−1 year−1, by using high resolution topographic data (LiDAR), 10 years rainfall data analysis, detailed land use and local soil characteristics. For a conventional land-management scenario the estimated that total potential soil erosion in the Prosecco DOCG area is 411,266 Mg year-1, with an erosion rate of 19.5 Mg ha year-1. Modelled soil erosion is mainly clustered on steep slopes, with rates higher than 40 Mg ha-1 year-1. In Prosecco vineyards potential soil erosion could reach 300,180 Mg year-1, by a mean rate of 43.7 Mg ha-1 year-1, which is 31 times higher than the upper limit of tolerable soil erosion threshold defined for Europe. In contrast, simulation of different nature-based scenarios (hedgerows, buffer strips, and grass cover) showed soil erosion could be effectively reduced: a 100% inter-row grass cover showed a reduction of almost 3 times in vineyards (from 43.7 to 14.6 Mg ha-1 year-1), saving about 50% of soil in the whole Prosecco DOCG. The soil footprint modelled for a conventional land-management scenario is about 3.3 kg every bottle produced; in contrast it would be reduced to 1.1 kg/bottle in the completely green land-management scenario. This study, as the first estimation of potential soil erosion at Prosecco DOCG scale, suggests that an integrated and public soil erosion monitoring system is strongly needed in viticultural area, by implementing direct/indirect field measures with spatial analyses at agricultural landscape scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term monitoring of species assemblages provides a unique opportunity to test hypotheses regarding environmentally induced directional trajectories of freshwater species assemblages. We used 57 years of lockchamber fish rotenone and boat electrofishing survey data (1957–2014) collected by the Ohio River Valley Water Sanitation Commission (ORSANCO) to test for directional trajectories in taxonomy, trophic classifications, and life history strategies of freshwater fish assemblages in the Ohio River Basin. We found significant changes in taxonomic and trophic composition of freshwater fishes in the Ohio River Basin. Annual species richness varied from 31 to 90 species and generally increased with year. Temporal trajectories were present for taxonomic and trophic assemblages. Assemblage structure based on taxonomy was correlated with land use change (decrease in agriculture and increase in forest). Taxonomic assemblage structure was also correlated with altered hydrology variables of increased minimum discharge, decreased fall rate, and increased rise rate. Trophic composition of fish catch correlated with land use change (decrease in agriculture and increase in forest) and altered hydrology. Altered hydrology of increased minimum discharge, increased fall discharge, decreased base flows, and increased number of high pulse events was correlated with increased counts of herbivore-detritivores and decreased counts of piscivores and planktivores. We did not find directional changes in life history composition. We hypothesized a shift occurred from benthic to phytoplankton production throughout the basin that may have decreased secondary production of benthic invertebrates. This may also be responsible for lower trophic position of invertivore and piscivore fishes observed in other studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional traffic crash analyzing methods focus on identifying the relationship between traffic crash outcomes and impact risk factors and explaining the effects of risk factors, which ignore the changes of roadway systems and can lead to inaccurate results in traffic crash predictions. To address this issue, an innovative two-step method is proposed and a support vector regression (SVR) model is formulated into state-space model (SSM) framework for traffic crash prediction. The SSM was developed in the first step to identify the dynamic evolution process of the roadway systems that are caused by the changes of traffic flow and predict the changes of impact factors in roadway systems. Using the predicted impact factors, the SVR model was incorporated in the second step to perform the traffic crash prediction. A five-year dataset that obtained from 1152 roadway segments in Tennessee was employed to validate the model effectiveness. The proposed models result in an average prediction MAPE of 7.59%, a MAE of 0.11, and a RMSD of 0.32. For the performance comparison, a SVR model and a multivariate negative binomial (MVNB) model were developed to do the same task. The results show that the proposed model has superior performances in terms of prediction accuracy compared to the SVR and MVNB models. Compared to the SVR and MVNB models, the benefit of incorporating a state-space model to identify the changes of roadway systems is significant evident in the proposed models for all crash types, and the prediction accuracy that measured by MAPE can be improved by 4.360% and 6.445% on average, respectively. Apart from accuracy improvement, the proposed models are more robust and the predictions can retain a smoother pattern. Furthermore, the results show that the proposed model has a more precise and synchronized response behavior to the high variations of the observed data, especially for the phenomenon of extra zeros. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

REDD+ projects primarily focus on reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries. These projects are regularly evaluated against their core objective of conserving carbon stocks, but their contribution to biodiversity conservation has rarely been assessed. To assess the conservation value of the area and the relative performance of a REDD+ land use plan in Yaeda Valley, a semi-arid savannah ecosystem in northern Tanzania, we implemented an annual wildlife monitoring scheme. Based on direct sightings and indirect signs of wildlife, obtained from stratified walking transects conducted annually from 2015–2018, we estimated annual trends of mammal species richness and wildlife densities in three REDD+ and three non-REDD+ land-use strata. Our surveys document a near complete mammal community in the area. Species accumulation curves, and subsequent statistical comparisons, indicated highest mammal species richness in the woodland habitats (both REDD+ and non REDD+ strata) as compared to more human and livestock impacted areas, and suggested constant species richness from 2015–2018. To estimate stratum- and year-specific livestock and wildlife densities (cattle, donkey, goat and sheep combined, Thomson’s gazelle, Kirk’s dik-dik) and wildlife sign densities (aardvark, bushbuck, bushpig, Kirk’s dik dik, eland, elephant, Maasai giraffe, greater kudu, hyena, impala, lesser kudu, warthog, wildebeest, Plains zebra), we fitted species-specific detection functions in a distance sampling framework. Species-specific densities varied between 2015 and 2018 and showed substantial increases and occasional declines in other species-stratum combinations. However, population growth rates were not systematically associated with specific land-use strata. Although our results do not explicitly provide evidence that REDD+ land-use plans directly co-benefit wildlife conservation, they show that REDD+ areas have the potential to maintain intact wildlife assemblages. To ensure effective long-term conservation outcomes, we advocate for a more formal integration of wildlife conservation goals in the REDD+ scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human-carnivore conflict can threaten human life and livelihoods, leading to retaliation that negatively affects carnivore conservation. The endangered African wild dog Lycaon pictus is prone to human-carnivore conflict. Therefore, it is imperative to understand which landscape features are associated with African wild dog occurrence since selection or avoidance of these features could predict the levels of conflict. We investigated resource selection in the African wild dog in relation to four anthropogenic landscape features (livestock density, agriculture, roads and human land use) within the landscape that may pose a mortality risk, as well as one natural feature (nature reserves). We compared spatio-temporal space use patterns of four African wild dog packs in north-eastern South Africa. Data were collected from one collared individual per pack. These packs constituted approximately 10% of the total remaining African wild dog population in South Africa. Two packs occurred outside of the Kruger National Park and had access to multiple areas with farmland and other anthropogenic features, whereas the remaining two packs mainly occurred within the boundaries of the Kruger National Park but made occasional forays outside of park boundaries. Utilising Resource Selection Functions and GIS analyses, we found that agricultural landscape features, roads and nature reserves were important predictors of African wild dog occurrence for all four packs. In addition to potential conflict with farmers, high odds of occurrence on roads with fast-moving traffic and road mortality was highlighted as a concern for three of the packs. While farms and areas that house livestock were readily available, pack presence occurred in areas with few farms and low livestock densities, pointing to avoidance of areas where human-carnivore conflict and resulting mortality could occur. Our study highlights potential threats to the persistence of the African wild dog, which can be used to inform future conservation efforts of the species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Road development is occurring at an unprecedented rate in important conservation areas in tropical countries with limited understanding of how local people will adjust their livelihood activities in response. We use a discrete choice experiment to explore the effect of road development on respondents ex-ante preferences for changes in livelihood activities—crop and livestock production, hunting and trading bushmeat, and business and wage employment—under different incentives—provision of loans, livestock and crop extension services–in scenarios with reduced travel time to nearest district town in the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem in Tanzania. We test four hypotheses about the effects of roads with opposing implication for conservation. Hypothesis 1 predicts that increased market access will lead to intensification of crop and livestock production activities (achieved through extension services and loans), and Hypothesis 2 that market access will facilitate the development of non-farm Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) providing new livelihood opportunities (e.g. business income and wage employment)–both reducing environmental pressure. Hypotheis 3 on the other hand predicts that improved market access will lead to extensification and expansion of crop and livestock production activities, while Hypotheis 4 suggests that it will encourage exploitation of environmental goods (here in the form of hunting and trading bushmeat and illegal grazing inside protected areas)–both increasing environmental pressure. We find increasing preferences for more cropland and more cattle as travel time to market is reduced but no preference for increased allocation of household members to hunting and trading bushmeat supporting hypothesis 3 while contradicting hypothesis 4. However, second-order effects might support hypothesis 4 as we find aversion towards decreasing effort invested in hunting and trading bushmeat. Preferences for increased cropland and livestock may furthermore interact to increase land use change and illegal grazing inside protected areas. Crop extension services had a negative modifying effect on preferences for more cropland (supporting hypothesis 1) while livestock extension services had a positive modifying effect on preferences for more cattle (contradicting hypothesis 1). Providing loans had a negative modifying effect on preferences for increasing cropland and number of cattle. Marginal rates of substitution suggest that 950,000 TSH borrowed at a 10% interest rate will reduce preferences for more cropland and cattle by 11.8 and 38.4% respectively. Crop extension services reduce preferences for more cropland by 27% whereas livestock extension services increase preferences for more cattle by 104%. Contradicting Hypothesis 2, we found no preference for increasing the number of households members engaged in business and wage employment in response to reduced travel time. Targeted efforts to increase the educational level as well as entrepreneurship skills in the GSE could promote engagement in the labour market and development of business enterprises diverting focus from traditional activities such as farming and livestock production and hence reducing pressure on the ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ecosystem services approach can inform decision-making by accounting for both short- and long-term benefits from different land use options. Here we used the InVEST toolkit to quantify and map key ecosystem services at the largest publicly-owned agro-silvo-pastoral farmstead in Portugal–a site representative for the montado landscape. We analyzed how Provisioning (cork production) and Regulating & Maintenance (carbon storage and sequestration) services would be affected under three land use change scenarios, which were developed in collaboration with the forest manager of the study area: Cattle Intensification, Forest Improvement, and Residential Development. Results show that increasing cattle or residential development would deliver substantially lower levels of services. We find that extensive management, improvements to forest quality, and promotion of traditional livestock grazing would provide the highest levels of assessed ecosystem services, resulting in 13.5% more carbon storage (worth between $0.34-$7.79 million USD depending on carbon price) and 62.7% more cork production (total value of USD $3.5 million) than the current land use. However, a shift in economic incentives to make sustainable cork harvesting and traditional low-density grazing of smaller ruminants like sheep and goats profitable are likely needed to reward traditional land stewardship and help support this iconic Mediterranean landscape in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban change (urbanization) has dominated land change science for several decades. However, few studies have focused on what many scholars call the urban densification process (i.e., urban intensity expansion) despite its importance to both planning and subsequent impacts to the environment and local economies. This paper documents past urban densification patterns and uses this information to predict future densification trends in southeastern Wisconsin (SEWI) by using a rich dataset from the United States and by adapting the well-known Land Transformation Model (LTM) for this purpose. Urban densification is a significant and progressive process that often accompanies urbanization more generally. The increasing proportion of lower density areas, rather than higher density areas, was the main characteristic of the urban densification in SEWI from 2001 to 2011. We believe that improving urban land use efficiency to maintain rational densification are effective means toward a sustainable urban landscape. Multiple goodness-of-fit metrics demonstrated that the reconfigured LTM performed relatively well to simulate urban densification patterns in 2006 and 2011, enabling us to forecast densification to 2016 and 2021. The predicted future urban densification patterns are likely to be characterized by higher densities continue to increase at the expense of lower densities. We argue that detailed categories of urban density and specific relevant predictor variables are indispensable for densification prediction. Our study provides researchers working in land change science with important insights into urban densification process modeling. The outcome of this model can help planners to identify the current trajectory of urban development, enabling them to take informed action to promote planning objectives, which could benefit sustainable urbanization definitely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land-use change can have profound effects on forest communities, compromising seedling recruitment and growth, and long-term persistence of forests on the landscape. Continued forest conversion to agriculture causes forest fragmentation which decreases forest size, increases edge effects and forest isolation, all of which negatively impact forest health. These fragmentation effects are magnified by human use of forests, which can compromise the continued persistence of species in these forests and the ability of the forests to support the communities that depend on them. We examined the extent and influence of human disturbance (e.g. weedy taxa, native and exotic tree plantations, clearings, buildings) on the ecological status of sacred church forests in the northern highlands of South Gondar, Ethiopia and hypothesized that disturbance would have a negative effect. We found that disturbance was high across all forests (56%) and was negatively associated with tree species richness, density, and biomass and seedling richness and density. Contrary to expectation, we found that forests < 15.5 ha show no difference in disturbance level with distance from population center. Based on our findings, we recommend that local conservation strategies not only protect large forests, but also the small and highly used forests in South Gondar which are critical to the needs of local people, including preserving large trees for seed sources, removing exotic and weedy species from forests, and reducing clearings and trails within forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

User-generated content is a valuable resource for capturing all aspects of our environment and lives, and dedicated Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) efforts such as OpenStreetMap (OSM) have revolutionized spatial data collection. While OSM data is widely used, considerably little attention has been paid to the quality of its Point-of-interest (POI) component. This work studies the accuracy, coverage, and trend worthiness of POI data. We assess the accuracy and coverage using another VGI source that utilizes editorial control. OSM data is compared to Foursquare data by using a combination of label similarity and positional proximity. Using the example of coffee shop POIs in Manhattan we also assess the trend worthiness of OSM data. A series of spatio-temporal statistical models are tested to compare change in the number of coffee shops to home prices in certain areas. This work overall shows that, although not perfect, OSM POI data and specifically its temporal aspect (changeset) can be used to drive urban science research and to study urban change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural expansion is one of the leading causes of deforestation in the tropics and in Southeast Asia it is predominantly driven by large-scale production for international trade. Peninsular Malaysia has a long history of plantation agriculture and has been a predominantly resource-based economy where expanding plantations like those of oil palm continue to replace natural forests. Habitat loss from deforestation and expanding plantations threatens Malaysian biodiversity. Expanding industrial plantations have also been responsible for drainage and conversions of peatland forests resulting in release of large amounts of carbon dioxide. The demand for palm oil is expected to increase further and result in greater pressures on tropical forests. Given Malaysia’s high biophysical suitability for oil palm cultivation, it is important to understand patterns of oil palm expansion to better predict forest areas that are vulnerable to future expansion. We study natural forest conversion to industrial oil palm in Peninsular Malaysia between 1988 and 2012 to identify determinants of recent oil palm expansion using logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning. Using maps of recent conversions and remaining forests, we characterize agro-environmental suitability and accessibility for the past and future conversions. We find that accessibility to previously existing plantations is the strongest determinant of oil palm expansion and is significant throughout the study period. Almost all (> 99%) of the forest loss between 1988 and 2012 that has been converted to industrial oil palm plantations is within 1 km from oil palm plantations that have been established earlier. Although most forest conversions to industrial oil palm have been in areas of high biophysical suitability, there has been an increase in converted area in regions with low oil palm suitability since 2006. We find that reduced suitability does not necessarily restrict conversions to industrial oil palm in the region; however, lack of access to established plantations does. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a sustainable mode of transportation, public bicycles significantly improve daily mobility. The location of stations is a key element for the success of a public bicycle system, as a long walking distance will reduce people’s willingness to use this mode of transportation. Building forms in China are different from the open type seen abroad. Many residential, office and school areas are enclosed by walls, and pedestrian flow is concentrated at the entrances/exits of these areas. Therefore, the station must be located close to the building entrance/exit. Previous studies on station location located the stations only per zone, without providing the exact locations of the stations in the zones. This paper considers the optimal distance between the building entrance/exit and the station to determine the exact station locations. The results can serve as a reference for the planning and optimization of public bicycle stations. A questionnaire survey was conducted in Beijing to determine users’ walking distances to the stations. The results indicated that the walking distance decay laws of stations were different for different land uses. Moreover, a binary logistic model was developed to verify that users with different travel purposes have different walking distances. Based on the above results, we explored the optimal distances and tolerable distances between the building entrance/exit and the station for different land uses. These distances can be used to determine exact station locations to meet users’ physiological and psychological needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we analyse factors explaining the distribution and range regression of Dupont’s lark in Spain, the only European country in which this threatened alaudid is present. Dupont’s lark is an extremely elusive and scarce species, distributed across a reduced and strongly fragmented range, showing a metapopulational structure with unknown dispersive and connective mechanisms. We used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) on nearly 15,000 Dupont’s lark observations (1985–2015) to assess the probability of presence at a 1 km resolution across its European range. Moreover, we tested the probability of extinction by comparing pre- and post-2000 observations by means of a GLM over a subset of cells with presence-absence data. We obtained strong model fitting (AUC = 0.919), in which species occurrence was explained by low values of plant productivity (NDVI), climate (high temperature range and medium annual precipitation), land use (increasing with sclerophyllous scrubland), flat topography and human disturbance (associated with low human population density). The species also tolerates dry farming, but not other farm types or forest cover. The probability map identified two main regions known as the species' core areas: the steppes of the Iberian System and the Ebro Valley. The North Plateau is characterised by a dispersed structure of small and very fragmented patches of suitable habitat, while a succession of discontinuous probability patches form an Eastern Corridor connecting the central core areas to the southernmost populations. Finally, the model identified small and isolated patches of high probability of presence along the eastern coastline. The species tends to occur in the best available areas but, at the same time, the model revealed a large area of suitable but unoccupied habitat. Our results correct the previous estimation of occupation area from 1,480 to 1,010.78 km2, a reduction of 26.22%. The current distribution of Dupont’s lark is almost completely covered by Important Bird Areas (IBAs), highlighting their importance for bird conservation, but only 44.89% is included in Natura 2000 Special Protection Areas (SPAs). A comparison of pre- and post-2000 periods revealed a range contraction of 44%. Probability of extinction increased with higher temperature range and lower annual precipitation, and with decreases in population density, which suggests that this species is extremely vulnerable to both climate change and rural abandonment, due to its dependence on traditional grazing. These results suggest the need for a re-evaluation of the conservation status of Dupont’s lark in Spain. They urge the preservation of not only current extant populations, but also the unoccupied suitable areas that could be critical for metapopulation structure, and the development of policies addressing the preservation of traditional grazing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Researchers have a limited understanding of the interactions between development patterns and Ignition Probability. This study explores the variation in Ignition Probability as a result of differing development patterns. Based on LANDFIRE datasets, development changes were mapped for two sets of years (2001 and 2012) and the relationship between development and Ignition Probability was assessed. The study area covered the two adjacent counties, Bastrop and Travis located in Texas, USA. These two counties have a high potential for wildfire, and due to expanding development have high vulnerability. Expanding lateral development was organized into one of five categories: infill, radial, isolated, clustered, and linear. The Maximum Entropy algorithm predicted the spatial distribution of ignition probabilities based on several physical and land use characteristics coupled with historic ignition locations. Variation in Ignition Probability was assessed for each category of development using two-way ANOVA’s and post hoc analysis. Ignition Probability maps indicated a fair sensitivity (Area Under the Curve: 0.77–0.78), suggesting that the spatial configuration of development patterns influenced wildfire ignition. Analyses found that isolated, clustered, and linear outlying development patterns had higher Ignition Probability than infill and radial development, and that fire probabilities fell along a development gradient. This trend between the development gradient and ignition probabilities should be used to direct land use planning to reduce fire risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in land use have resulted in range shifts of many wildlife species, including those entering novel environments, resulting in the critical need to understand their spatial ecology to inform ecosystem effects and management decisions. Dispersing elk (Cervus elaphus) were colonizing areas of suitable habitat in the Northern Great Plains, USA, resulting in crop depredation complaints in these areas. Although state resource managers had little information on these elk herds, limited evidence suggested temporal movements into Canada. We collected and analyzed essential information on home range and habitat selection for 3 elk herds residing in North Dakota. We captured 5 adult female elk in each study area, affixed global positioning system collars, and monitored them for 1 year (2016–2017). We estimated diel period, seasonal, and hunting season home ranges using Brownian Bridge Movement Models for each individual. We analyzed habitat selection using multinomial logit models to test for differences in use of land classes, and for departures from proportionate use based on random sampling; our predictor variables included individual elk, diel period, and season. Home ranges differed between the 3 herds, seasons, and diel period; gun and winter season home ranges were both larger than in summer, as was night when compared with day. Female elk generally restricted themselves to cover during the day and entered open areas at night and during winter months. Our results also suggest that elk in our study areas tended to seek more cover, and in the case of our Turtle Mountain study area, some cross into Canada during gun season. Our study provides a better understanding of the spatial ecology of elk in the Northern Great Plains while highlighting the need for enhanced international cooperative management efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is of utmost importance to research on the spatial patterns of human-wildlife conflicts to understand the underlying mechanism of such interactions, i.e. major land use changes and prominent ecological drivers. In the north eastern part of India there has been a disparity between nature, economic development and fragmentation of wildlife habitats leading to intense conflicts between humans and Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in recent times. Both the elephant and human population have increased in the past few decades with large tracts of forests converted to commercial tea plantations, army camps and human settlements. We analyzed data maintained by the wildlife department on human deaths and injuries caused by elephant attacks between 2006–2016 to understand spatial and temporal patterns of human-elephant conflict, frequency and distribution. The average annual number of human deaths and injuries to elephant attacks between 2006 to 2016 was estimated to be 212 (SE 103) with the highest number of such incidents recorded in 2010–2011. Based on a grid based design of 5 km2 and 25 km2 resolution, the main spatial predictors of human-elephant conflicts identified through Maxent presence only models are annual mean precipitation, altitude, distance from protected area, area under forests, tea plantations and agriculture. Major land use changes were assessed for this region from 2008 to 2018 using satellite imageries in Arc GIS and a predicted imagery of 2028 was prepared using Idrisi Selva. Based on the 2018 imagery it was found that forest area had increased by 446 km2 within 10 years (2008–2018) and the annual rate of change was 12%. Area under agriculture had reduced by 128 km2 with an annual (-) rate of change of 2.5%. Area under tea plantation declined by 307 km2 with an annual (-) rate of change of 12% whereas area under human settlements increased by 61 km2 with an annual (-) rate of change of 44%. Hotspots of human-elephant conflicts were identified in an east west direction primarily around protected areas, tea plantations and along major riverine corridors. During informal interactions with farmers, tea estate labors it was revealed that local community members chased and harassed elephants from agriculture fields, human settlements under the influence of alcohol and thus were primary victims of fatal interactions. Our analytical approach can be replicated for other species in sites with similar issues of human-wildlife conflicts. The hotspot maps of conflict risk will help in developing appropriate mitigation strategies such as setting up early warning systems, restoration of wildlife corridors especially along dry river beds, using deterrents and barriers for vulnerable. Awareness about alcohol related incidents and basic biology of elephants should be organized regularly involving non-governmental organizations targeting the marginalized farmers and tea estate workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A recent global trend toward retirement of farmland presents opportunities to reclaim habitat for threatened and endangered species. We examine habitat restoration opportunities in one of the world’s most converted landscapes, California’s San Joaquin Desert (SJD). Despite the presence of 35 threatened and endangered species, agricultural expansion continues to drive habitat loss in the SJD, even as marginal farmland is retired. Over the next decades a combination of factors, including salinization, climate change, and historical groundwater overdraft, are projected to lead to the retirement of more than 2,000 km2 of farmland in the SJD. To promote strategic habitat protection and restoration, we conducted a quantitative assessment of habitat loss and fragmentation, habitat suitability, climatic niche stability, climate change impacts, habitat protection, and reintroduction opportunities for an umbrella species of the SJD, the endangered blunt-nosed leopard lizard (Gambelia sila). We use our suitability models, in conjunction with modern and historical land use maps, to estimate the historical and modern rate of habitat loss to development. The estimated amount of habitat lost since the species became protected under endangered species law in 1967 is greater than the total amount of habitat currently protected through public ownership and conservation easement. We document climatic niche contraction and associated range contraction away from the more mesic margins of the species’ historical distribution, driven by the anthropogenic introduction of exotic grasses and forbs. The impact of exotic species on G. sila range dynamics appears to be still unfolding. Finally, we use NASA fallowed area maps to identify 610 km2 of fallowed or retired agricultural land with high potential to again serve as habitat. We discuss conservation strategies in light of the potential for habitat restoration and multiple drivers of ongoing and historical habitat loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Single species conservation unites disparate partners for the conservation of one species. However, there are widespread concerns that single species conservation biases conservation efforts towards charismatic species at the expense of others. Here we investigate the extent to which sage grouse (Centrocercus sp.) conservation, the largest public-private conservation effort for a single species in the US, provides protections for other species from localized and landscape-scale threats. We compared the coverage provided by sage grouse Priority Areas for Conservation (PACs) to 81 sagebrush-associated vertebrate species distributions with potential coverage under multi-species conservation prioritization generated using the decision support tool Zonation. PACs. We found that the current PAC prioritization approach was not statistically different from a diversity-based prioritization approach and covers 23.3% of the landscape, and 24.8%, on average, of the habitat of the 81 species. The proportion of each species distribution at risk was lower inside PACs as compared to the region as a whole, even without management (land use change 30% lower, cheatgrass invasion 19% lower). Whether or not bias away from threat represents the most efficient use of conservation effort is a matter of considerable debate, though may be pragmatic in this landscape where capacity to address these threats is limited. The approach outlined here can be used to evaluate biological equitability of protections provided by flagship species in other settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the effects of improved market accessibility on agricultural land use and basic wellbeing, defined by income and rice sufficiency, in Xayaburi province, Lao PDR through a meso-scale and actor-oriented approach with data collection at both district and household level. It also investigates farmers’ decision-making as it relates to regional markets. Increasing market accessibility in rural areas facilitates cash crop trade leading to agrarian change from subsistence to commercial agricultural systems. This transformation raises concerns about food security and vulnerability to market uncertainties as farmers are likely to grow cash crops intensively and in place of food crops, leading to lower food production. Meanwhile incomes from cash crop trade are highly vulnerable to market uncertainties. We found that farmers in the south of Xayaburi, where market accessibility is higher than in the north, primarily grow cash crops and do not suffer from rice insufficiency while farmers in the north, where market accessibility is lower, rely more on subsistence agriculture and have a lower level of basic wellbeing. The major factors of better basic wellbeing in the south include: (1) better market accessibility which can mitigate the risks of market uncertainty and create enough income to compensate for and overcome losses in rice production, (2) availability of more arable land due to a larger amount of level terrain which allows farmers to expand cash crop cultivation and continue growing rice at the same time, and (3) farmer strategy to keep a part of their land for growing rice to meet their minimum consumption needs and prevent the risks of rice insufficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2010, The Nature Conservancy completed the Mojave Desert Ecoregional Assessment, which characterizes conservation values across nearly 130,000 km2 of the desert Southwest. Since this assessment was completed, several renewable energy facilities have been built in the Mojave Desert, thereby changing the conservation value of these lands. We have completed a new analysis of land use to reassess the conservation value of lands in two locations in the Mojave Desert where renewable energy development has been most intense: Ivanpah Valley, and the Western Mojave. We found that 99 of our 2.59-km2 planning units were impacted by development such that they would now be categorized as having lower conservation value, and most of these downgrades in conservation value were due to solar and wind development. Solar development alone was responsible for a direct development footprint 86.79 km2: 25.81 km2 of this was primarily high conservation value Bureau of Land Management lands in the Ivanpah Valley, and 60.99 km2 was privately owned lands, mostly of lower conservation value, in the Western Mojave. Our analyses allow us to understand patterns in renewable energy development in the mostly rapidly changing regions of the Mojave Desert. Our analyses also provide a baseline that will allow us to assess the effectiveness of the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan in preventing development on lands of high conservation value over the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human use of the land (for agriculture and settlements) has a substantial negative effect on biodiversity globally. However, not all species are adversely affected by land use, and indeed, some benefit from the creation of novel habitat. Geographically rare species may be more negatively affected by land use than widespread species, but data limitations have so far prevented global multi-clade assessments of land-use effects on narrow-ranged and widespread species. We analyse a large, global database to show consistent differences in assemblage composition. Compared with natural habitat, assemblages in disturbed habitats have more widespread species on average, especially in urban areas and the tropics. All else being equal, this result means that human land use is homogenizing assemblage composition across space. Disturbed habitats show both reduced abundances of narrow-ranged species and increased abundances of widespread species. Our results are very important for biodiversity conservation because narrow-ranged species are typically at higher risk of extinction than widespread species. Furthermore, the shift to more widespread species may also affect ecosystem functioning by reducing both the contribution of rare species and the diversity of species’ responses to environmental changes among local assemblages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diversity of agricultural landscapes is important to maintain the provision of ecosystem services. In face of decreasing support measures for agricultural markets in the European Union, diversified crop portfolios could also offer a possibility to stabilize revenue at farm level (portfolio effect). We hypothesize that (i) diversity of crop portfolios changes along spatial gradients in the study area (Bavaria, Germany), (ii) the composition of portfolios depends on farm parameters, and (iii) more diverse portfolios on arable land provide higher revenue stability. We analysed agricultural census data comprising all farms (N = 105 314) in the study area and identified 26 typical crop portfolios. We show that portfolio composition is related to farm characteristics (whole farm revenue, farm type, farm size) and location. Currently, diversification of crop portfolios fails to promote stability of portfolio revenue in the study area, where policy still indirectly influences market prices of energy crops. We conclude that the portfolio effect as a natural insurance was less important in recent years due to high market prices for specific crops. This low need for natural insurances probably favoured simplified portfolios leading to decreased agricultural diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil organic carbon (SOC) constitutes a large pool within the global carbon cycle. Changes in land-use/cover strongly drive variation of SOC stocks. We analyzed the changes in four types of land use/cover and their influence on SOC content, density, and regional stocks along the main channel of the Tarim River in China for 2000–2010 obtained from remotely sensed images and field surveys. The areas and structures of the land uses/covers changed greatly during this period. Specifically, the areas of cultivated, industrial and residential, and shrub land increased, particularly cultivated and shrub land. The areas of forestland, grassland, water bodies, and unused land decreased. SOC stocks in forestland, grassland and unused land decreased between 2000 and 2010. The total SOC stock for the forestland shrub land grassland and unused land was lower in 2010 than 2000. Land-use/cover conversion thus affected SOC stocks. Specifically, conversions from forestland to shrub land, forestland to grassland, forestland to unused land, grassland to shrub land, grassland to unused land, and shrub land to unused land decreased the SOC stocks. This study provides a scientific basis for eco-environmental protection in arid areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

River ecosystems in semi-arid environments provide an array of resources that concentrate biodiversity, but also attract human settlement and support economic development. In the southwestern United States, land-use change, drought, and anthropogenic disturbance are compounding factors which have led to departures from historical conditions of river ecosystems, consequently affecting wildlife habitat, including important wintering areas for migratory birds. The Rio Grande (River) in central New Mexico is the lifeblood of the Middle Rio Grande Valley (MRGV), maintaining large urban and agricultural centers and riparian and wetland resources, which disproportionately support a diversity of wildlife. The MRGV has been identified as the most important wintering area for the Rocky Mountain Population of greater sandhill cranes (Antigone canadensis tabida). Presently, however, changes in the hydrogeomorphology of the Rio Grande and landscape modification by humans have reshaped the MRGV and winter habitat for sandhill cranes. To evaluate these impacts, we investigated how land-use practices, anthropogenic disturbance, and river morphology influenced patterns of diurnal and roosting habitat selection by sandhill cranes. During the diurnal period, sandhill cranes relied heavily on managed public lands selecting agriculture crops, such as corn fields, and wetlands for foraging and loafing while avoiding areas with increasing densities of human structures. Sandhill cranes selected areas for roosting in the Rio Grande characterized by shallower water interspersed with sandbars, wide channel width, low bank vegetation, and farther away from disturbances associated with bridges. Our results establish and identify the central processes driving patterns of diel habitat selection by wintering sandhill cranes. Land use and riverine trends have likely gradually reduced winter habitat to managed public lands and limited reaches of the Rio Grande, underscoring the importance of natural resources agencies in supporting migratory birds and challenges involved when managing for wildlife in highly pressured semi-arid environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is affecting the growth, phenology, and distribution of species across northeastern United States. In response to these changes, some species have been adversely impacted while others have benefited. One species that has benefited from climate change, historically and in response to experimental treatments, is common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a widely distributed annual weed and a leading cause of hay fever in North America. To better understand how climate change may affect the distribution of common ragweed, we built a maximum entropy (Maxent) predictive model using climate and bioclimatic data and over 700 observations across the eastern U.S. Our model performed well with an AUC score of 0.765 using four uncorrelated variables, including precipitation seasonality, mean diurnal temperature range, August precipitation, and January maximum temperature. After building and testing our model, we then projected potential future common ragweed distribution using a suite of 13 global climate models (GCMs) under two future greenhouse gas scenarios for mid and late-century. In addition to providing georeferenced hot spots of potential future expansion, we also provide a metric of confidence by evaluating the number of GCMs that agree. We show a substantial contraction of common ragweed in central Florida, southern Appalachian Mountains, and northeastern Virginia and areas of potential expansion at the northern margins of its current distribution, notably in northeastern U.S. However, the vast majority of this increase is projected to occur by mid-century and may be moderated somewhat by the 2070s, implying that common ragweed may be sensitive to climatic variability. Although other factors and modeling approaches should be explored, we offer preliminary insight into where common ragweed might be a new concern in the future. Due to the health impacts of ragweed, local weed control boards may be well advised to monitor areas of expansion and potentially increase eradication efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban green space (UGS) has many environmental and social benefits. UGS provision and access are increasingly considered in urban policies and must rely on data and indicators that can capture variations in the distribution of UGS within cities. There is no consensus about how UGS, and their provision and access, must be defined from different land use data types. Here we identify four spatial dimensions of UGS and critically examine how different data sources affect these dimensions and our understanding of their variation within a city region (Brussels). We compare UGS indicators measured from an imagery source (NDVI from Landsat), an official cadastre-based map, and the voluntary geographical information provided by OpenStreetMap (OSM). We compare aggregate values of provision and access to UGS as well as their spatial distribution along a centrality gradient and at neighbourhood scale. We find that there are strong differences in the value of indicators when using the different datasets, especially due to their ability to capture private and public green space. However we find that the interpretation of intra-urban spatial variations is not affected by changes in data source. Centrality in particular is a strong determinant of the relative values of UGS availability, fragmentation and accessibility, irrespective of datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China harbors diversified forest types, from tropical rainforest to boreal coniferous forest, and has implemented large-scale reforestation/afforestation programs over the past several decades. However, little information is available on changes in China’s forest area and the causes. In this study, we used the classified forest distribution thematic map derived from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets and a revised IPAT model to examine China’s forest area change and the possible driving factors from 1982 to 2006. Overall, NDVI-derived forest areas were numerically consistent with those reported in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th National Forest Inventories, respectively. Over the past 25 years, China’s forest area was estimated to have an average of 169.18 million hectares with an annual increase of 0.15 million hectares (c.a. a total net increment of 3.60 million hectares), which is equivalent to 0.089% of the relative annual change rate. However, a large difference in the changing rate and direction of forest area at the province level was found; for instance, forest area has declined in 10 provinces, mainly in Northeastern and Southern China, while 21 provinces showed an increase. The changes were most likely attributed to the policy regarding the import and export of timber and affluence (per capita gross domestic product), and both contributed more than 80% of the total contribution of the six factors of the revised IPAT model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite substantial research and policy interest in pixel level cropland allocation data, few sources are available that span a large geographic area. The data used for much of this research are derived from complex modeling techniques that may include model simulation and other data processing. We develop a transparent econometric framework that uses pixel level biophysical measurements and aggregate cropland statistics to develop pixel level cropland allocation predictions. Such pixel level land use data can be used to investigate the impact of human activities on the environment. Validation exercises show that our approach is effective at downscaling cropland allocation to multiple levels of resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Throughout the Angkor period (9th to 15th centuries CE), the Khmer kingdom maintained a series of interconnected cities and smaller settlements across its territory on mainland Southeast Asia. One such city was Koh Ker, which for a brief period in the 10th century CE even served as a royal capital. The complexity of the political landscape meant the Khmer kings and the elite were particularly mobile through the Angkor period, and rupture in royal houses was common. However, while the historical record chronicles the 10th century migration of the royal seat from Koh Ker back to Angkor, the fate of Koh Ker’s domestic population has remained unknown. In this article, we reconstruct the settlement history of Koh Ker, using palaeoecological and geoarchaeological techniques, and show that human activity and land use persisted in the city for several centuries beyond the city’s abandonment by the royal court. These results highlight the utility of multi-proxy environmental reconstructions of Khmer urban settlements for re-evaluating prevailing assumptions regarding the use and occupation of Angkor-period cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biofuels policies induce land use changes (LUC), including cropland expansion and crop switching, and this in turn alters water and soil management practices. Policies differ in the extent and type of land use changes they induce and therefore in their impact on water resources. We quantify and compare the spatially varying water impacts of biofuel crops stemming from LUC induced by two different biofuels policies by coupling a biophysical model with an economic model to simulate the economically viable mix of crops, land uses, and crop management choices under alternative policy scenarios. We assess the outputs of an economic model with a high-resolution crop-water model for major agricultural crops and potential cellulosic feedstocks in the US to analyze the impacts of three alternative policy scenarios on water balances: a counterfactual ‘no-biofuels policy’ (BAU) scenario, a volumetric mandate (Mandate) scenario, and a clean fuel-intensity standard (CFS) scenario incentivizing fuels based on their carbon intensities. While both biofuel policies incentivize more biofuels than in the counterfactual, they differ in the mix of corn ethanol and advanced biofuels from miscanthus and switchgrass (more corn ethanol in Mandate and more cellulosic biofuels in CFS). The two policies differ in their impact on irrigated acreage, irrigation demand, groundwater use and runoff. Net irrigation requirements increase 0.7% in Mandate and decrease 3.8% in CFS, but in both scenarios increases are concentrated in regions of Kansas and Nebraska that rely upon the Ogallala aquifer for irrigation water. Our study illustrates the importance of accounting for the overall LUC and shifts in agricultural production and management practices in response to policies when assessing the water impacts of biofuels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat loss is the greatest threat to biodiversity in Borneo, and to anticipate and combat its effects it is important to predict the pattern of loss and its consequences. Borneo is a region of extremely high biodiversity from which forest is being lost faster than in any other. The little-known Sunda clouded leopard (Neofelis diardi) is the top predator in Borneo and is likely to depend critically on habitat connectivity that is currently being rapidly lost to deforestation. We modeled the effects of landscape fragmentation on population size, genetic diversity and population connectivity for the Sunda clouded leopard across the entirety of Borneo. We modelled the impacts of land use change between the years 2000, 2010 and projected forwards to 2020. We found substantial reductions across all metrics between 2000 and 2010: the proportion of landscape connected by dispersal fell by approximately 12.5% and the largest patch size declined by around 15.1%, leading to a predicted 11.4% decline in clouded leopard numbers. We also predict that these trends will accelerate greatly towards 2020, with the percentage of the landscape being connected by dispersal falling by about 57.8%, the largest patch size falling by around 62.8% and the predicted clouded leopard population falling by 62.5% between 2010 and 2020. We predicted that these large declines in clouded leopard population size and connectivity will also substantially reduce the genetic diversity of the remaining clouded leopard population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The view that interacting with nature enhances mental wellbeing is commonplace, despite a dearth of evidence or even agreed definitions of ‘nature’. The aim of this review was to systematically appraise the evidence for associations between greenspace and mental wellbeing, stratified by the different ways in which greenspace has been conceptualised in quantitative research. Methods: We undertook a comprehensive database search and thorough screening of articles which included a measure of greenspace and validated mental wellbeing tool, to capture aspects of hedonic and/or eudaimonic wellbeing. Quality and risk of bias in research were assessed to create grades of evidence. We undertook detailed narrative synthesis of the 50 studies which met the review inclusion criteria, as methodological heterogeneity precluded meta-analysis. Results: Results of a quality assessment and narrative synthesis suggest associations between different greenspace characteristics and mental wellbeing. We identified six ways in which greenspace was conceptualised and measured: (i) amount of local-area greenspace; (ii) greenspace type; (iii) visits to greenspace; (iv) views of greenspace; (v) greenspace accessibility; and (vi) self-reported connection to nature. There was adequate evidence for associations between the amount of local-area greenspace and life satisfaction (hedonic wellbeing), but not personal flourishing (eudaimonic wellbeing). Evidence for associations between mental wellbeing and visits to greenspace, accessibility, and types of greenspace was limited. There was inadequate evidence for associations with views of greenspace and connectedness to nature. Several studies reported variation in associations between greenspace and wellbeing by life course stage, gender, levels of physically activity or attitudes to nature. Conclusions: Greenspace has positive associations with mental wellbeing (particularly hedonic wellbeing), but the evidence is not currently sufficient or specific enough to guide planning decisions. Further studies are needed, based on dynamic measures of greenspace, reflecting access and uses of greenspace, and measures of both eudaimonic and hedonic mental wellbeing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]