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This paper analyzes the patterns of health biotechnology publications in six Latin American countries from 2001 to 2015. The countries studied were Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba and Mexico. Before our study, there were no data available on HBT development in half of the Latin-American countries we studied, i.e., Argentina, Colombia and Chile. To include these countries in a scientometric analysis of HBT provides fuller coverage of HBT development in Latin America. The scientometric study used the Web of Science database to identify health biotechnology publications. The total amount of health biotechnology production in the world during the period studied was about 400,000 papers. A total of 1.2% of these papers, were authored by the six Latin American countries in this study. The results show a significant growth in health biotechnology publications in Latin America despite some of the countries having social and political instability, fluctuations in their gross domestic expenditure in research and development or a trade embargo that limits opportunities for scientific development. The growth in the field of some of the Latin American countries studied was larger than the growth of most industrialized nations. Still, the visibility of the Latin American research (measured in the number of citations) did not reach the world average, with the exception of Colombia. The main producers of health biotechnology papers in Latin America were universities, except in Cuba were governmental institutions were the most frequent producers. The countries studied were active in international research collaboration with Colombia being the most active (64% of papers co-authored internationally), whereas Brazil was the least active (35% of papers). Still, the domestic collaboration was even more prevalent, with Chile being the most active in such collaboration (85% of papers co-authored domestically) and Argentina the least active (49% of papers). We conclude that the Latin American countries studied are increasing their health biotechnology publishing. This strategy could contribute to the development of innovations that may solve local health problems in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: HIV transmitted drug resistance (TDR) remains at moderate level in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). However, different epidemiologic scenarios could influence national and sub-regional TDR levels and trends. Methods and Findings: We performed a systematic review of currently available publications on TDR in antiretroviral treatment-naïve adults in LAC. Ninety-eight studies published between January 2000 and June 2015 were included according to critical appraisal criteria and classified by sub-region: Brazil (50), Mesoamerica (17), Southern Cone (16), Andean (8) and Caribbean (7). From these, 81 studies encompassing 11,441 individuals with data on DR mutation frequency were included in a meta-analysis. Overall TDR prevalence in LAC was 7.7% (95% CI: 7.2%-8.2%). An increasing trend was observed for overall TDR when comparing 2000–2005 (6.0%) and 2006–2015 (8.2%) (p<0.0001), which was associated with significant NNRTI TDR increase (p<0.0001). NRTI TDR decreased (4.5% vs. 2.3%, p<0.0001). NNRTI TDR increase was associated mainly with K101E, K103N and G190A. NRTI TDR decrease was associated mainly with M184V, K70R and T215Y. All sub-regions reached moderate overall TDR levels. The rapid increase in TDR to all antiretroviral classes in the Caribbean is notable, as well as the significant increase in NNRTI TDR reaching moderate levels in the Southern Cone. NRTI TDR was dominant in 2000–2005, mainly in the Caribbean, Mesoamerica and Brazil. This dominance was lost in 2006–2015 in all sub-regions, with the Southern Cone and the Caribbean switching to NNRTI dominance. PI TDR remained mostly constant with a significant increase only observed in the Caribbean. Conclusions: Given the high conceptual and methodological heterogeneity of HIV TDR studies, implementation of surveys with standardized methodology and national representativeness is warranted to generate reliable to inform public health policies. The observed increasing trend in NNRTI TDR supports the need to strengthen TDR surveillance and programme monitoring and evaluation in LAC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is much variability in the expression of sickle cell disease (SCD) and recent works suggest that environmental and social factors may also influence this variability. This paper aims to use geographic information systems technology to examine the association between socio-environmental exposures and health outcomes in all persons who have attended or currently attend the Sickle Cell Unit in Jamaica. Rural patients presented for clinical care at older ages and had less annual visits to clinic. Persons travelled relatively long distances to seek SCD care and those travelling longer had less health maintenance visits. Urban patients had a higher prevalence of significant pain crises (69.4% vs. 55.8%, p value<0.001) and respiratory events (21.2% vs. 14%, p value<0.001). Prevalence of leg ulcers did not vary between rural and urban patients but was higher in males than in females. Females also had lower odds of having respiratory events but there was no sex difference in history of painful crises. Persons with more severe genotypes lived in higher poverty and travelled longer for healthcare services. Persons in areas with higher annual rainfall, higher mean temperatures and living farther from factories had less painful crises and respiratory events. The paper highlights a need for better access to healthcare services for Jamaicans with SCD especially in rural areas of the island. It also reports interesting associations between environmental climatic exposures and health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To carry out a systematic review with meta-analysis of prevalence of caries in Latin America and Caribbean children considering studies performed in this new century. Methods: Two reviewers searched PubMed, Embase, LILACS and governmental databases through May 2016 to identify papers published in English, Portuguese or Spanish. Studies in those countries performed with 5–6 or 11–13 year-old children and that presented separate prevalence figures from primary and permanent teeth were selected. We performed a descriptive analysis of studies and meta-analysis to calculate the overall prevalence and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) in both primary and permanent teeth. We also analyzed the trends of prevalence of caries through the years and influence of other variables on caries prevalence using multilevel analysis. Results: Seventy-five studies were included from the 1,306 articles initially retrieved. The meta-analysis of caries prevalence grouped for Latin American and the Caribbean countries were highly different from Brazil and other investigated countries for primary teeth (5–6 years-old—Brazil: 0.52, other countries:0.70) and permanent teeth (11–12 years-old—Brazil: 0.56, other countries: 0.63). For studies conducted only in Brazil the prevalence was significant lower for primary but not for permanent teeth. In Brazil, a downward trend of caries prevalence was observed in 11-13-year-old children. Conclusion: Despite the decline of caries prevalence in permanent teeth, mainly in Brazil, the disease still affects more than half of the children population in Latin American and Caribbean countries in the 21st Century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adoption of the shared prosperity goal by the World Bank in 2013 and Sustainable Development Goal 10, on inequality, by the United Nations in 2015 should strengthen the focus of development interventions and cooperation on the income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution. This paper contributes to the incipient literature on within-country allocations of development institutions and assesses the geographic targeting of World Bank projects to the bottom 40 percent. Bivariate correlations between the allocation of project funding approved over 2005–14 and the geographical distribution of the bottom 40 as measured by survey income or consumption data are complemented by regressions with population and other potential factors affecting the within-country allocations as controls. The correlation analysis shows that, of the 58 countries in the sample, 41 exhibit a positive correlation between the shares of the bottom 40 and World Bank funding, and, in almost half of these, the correlation is above 0.5. Slightly more than a quarter of the countries, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa, exhibit a negative correlation. The regression analysis shows that, once one controls for population, the correlation between the bottom 40 and World Bank funding switches sign and becomes significant and negative on average. This is entirely driven by Sub-Saharan Africa and not observed in the other regions. Hence, the significant and positive correlation in the estimations without controlling for population suggests that World Bank project funding is concentrated in administrative areas in which more people live (including the bottom 40) rather than in poorer administrative areas. Furthermore, capital cities receive disproportionally high shares of World Bank funding on average. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Critical illness affects health systems globally, but low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) bear a disproportionate burden. Due to a paucity of data, the capacity to care for critically ill patients in LMICs is largely unknown. Haiti has the lowest health indices in the Western Hemisphere. In this study, we report results of the first known nationwide survey of critical care capacity in Haiti. Design: Nationwide, cross-sectional survey of Haitian hospitals in 2017–2018. Setting: Haiti. Subjects: All Haitian health facilities with at least six hospital beds. Interventions: Electronic- and paper-based survey. Results: Of 51 health facilities identified, 39 (76.5%) from all ten Haitian administrative departments completed the survey, reporting 124 reported ICU beds nationally. Of facilities without an ICU, 20 (83.3%) care for critically ill patients in the emergency department. There is capacity to ventilate 62 patients nationally within ICUs and six patients outside of the ICU. One-third of facilities with ICUs report formal critical care training for their physicians. Only five facilities met criteria for a Level 1 ICU as defined by the World Federation of Societies of Intensive and Critical Care Medicine. Self-identified barriers to providing more effective critical care services include lack of physical space for critically ill patients, lack of equipment, and few formally trained physicians and nurses. Conclusions: Despite a high demand for critical care services in Haiti, current capacity remains insufficient to meet need. A significant amount of critical care in Haiti is provided outside of the ICU, highlighting the important overlap between emergency and critical care medicine in LMICs. Many ICUs in Haiti lack basic components for critical care delivery. Streamlining critical care services through protocol development, education, and training may improve important clinical outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Yaws is targeted for eradication by 2020 in the WHA66.12 resolution of the World Health Assembly. The objective of this study was to describe the occurrence of yaws in the Americas and to contribute to the compilation of evidence based on published data to undertake the certification of yaws eradication. Methodology: A systematic review of the epidemiological situation of yaws in the Americas was performed by searching in MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, SCOPUS, Web of Science, DARE and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Experts on the topic were consulted, and institutional WHO/PAHO library databases were reviewed. Principal findings: Seventy-five full-text articles published between 1839 and 2012 met the inclusion criteria. Haiti and Jamaica were the two countries with the highest number of papers (14.7% and 12.0%, respectively). Three-quarters of the studies were conducted before 1970. Thirty-three countries reported yaws case count or prevalence data. The largest foci in the history were described in Brazil and Haiti. The most recent cases reported were recorded in eight countries: Suriname, Guyana, Colombia, Haiti, Martinique, Dominica, Trinidad and Tobago, and Brazil. Gaps in information and heterogeneity were detected in the methodologies used and outcome reporting, making cross-national and chronological comparisons difficult. Conclusions: The lack of recent yaws publications may reflect, in the best-case scenario, the interruption of yaws transmission. It should be possible to reach the eradication goal in the region of the Americas, but it is necessary to collect more information. We suggest updating the epidemiological status of yaws, especially in two countries that need to assess ongoing transmission. Twenty-four countries need to demonstrate the interruption of transmission and declare its status of yaws endemicity, and sixteen countries should declare if they are yaws-free. It is necessary to formally verify the achievement of this goal in Ecuador. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The establishment of trust between researchers and participants is critical to advance HIV and HCV prevention particularly among people who inject drugs (PWID) and other marginalized populations, yet empirical research on how to establish and maintain trust in the course of community health research is lacking. This paper documents ideas about trust between research participants and researchers amongst a sub-sample of PWID who were enrolled in a large, multi-year community health study of social networks and HIV/HCV risk that was recently conducted in rural Puerto Rico. Methods: Qualitative research was nested within a multi-year Social Network and HIV/HCV Risk study involving N = 360 PWID > 18 years of age living in four small, rural Puerto Rican communities. Semi-structured interviews were conducted between March 2017 and April 2017 with a subset of 40 active PWID who had been enrolled in the parent study. Interview questions invited participants to draw upon their recent experience as research participants to better understand how PWID perceive and understand participant-researcher trust within the context of HIV/HCV-related epidemiological research. Results: Fear of police, stigma and concerns regarding confidentiality and anonymity were identified as structural factors that could compromise participation in HIV/HCV-related research for PWID. While monetary compensation was an important motivation, participants also valued the opportunity to learn about their HIV/HCV status. During their participation in the study, gaining knowledge of safe injection practices was perceived as a valuable benefit. Participant narratives suggested that PWID may adopt an incremental and ongoing approach in their assessment of the trustworthiness of researchers, continuously assessing the extent to which they trust the research staff throughout the course of the research. Trust was initially generated through peer Respondent Driven Sampling recruitment. Research staff who maintained a presence in the community for the entire duration of the prospective study reinforced trust between participants and the research team. Conclusion: Although PWID face numerous structural barriers to research-related trust in HIV/HCV research, we found that using a peer-based recruitment method like RDS, and employing a research staff who are knowledgeable about the targeted population, culturally sensitive to their needs, and who maintain a long-term presence in the community may help mitigate many of these barriers. The reputation of the research is built incrementally as participants join the study. This contributes to a “street reputation” that grows as current or former participants vouch for the study. Establishing trust was identified as only the first step towards building a collaborative relationship with participants, and our findings suggest that steps to address criminalization and stigmatization also are necessary to support research trust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The expansion of international trade in commodities increases the risk of alien species invasions. Invaders are difficult to detect on introduction, so prevention remains the preferred strategy for managing the threat of invasions. Propagule pressure has been shown to be a good predictor of invasion risk. Most studies to date, however, link potential invasive species arrivals with indirect measures of propagule pressure such as aggregate trade volumes. This paper estimates propagule pressure using data that measure actual arrivals. Specifically, it uses inspection data that covers almost all U.S. fruit and vegetable imports from 2005–2014 to estimate a logit model of the probability of potential invasive species arrival and expected propagule frequencies for 2,240 commodity/country of origin combinations. Clear patterns in the geographic origin and commodity pathways for potential pests are identified. The average probability of arrival is low, approximately 0.03, but is two to ten times higher for some commodities, most notably herbs. We identify commodities with a high number of expected arrivals due to either a large volume of trade, high interception rates, or a combination of both. Seven of the top ten countries of origin for propagule frequency are from the Western Hemisphere and further trade liberalization within the Western Hemisphere is likely to heighten challenges to enforcement of US phytosanitary standards. Patterns in the data can help identify the commodities and countries of origin in greatest need of technical assistance and guide targeting of surveillance for the pathways of greatest phytosanitary concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mapping three-dimensional (3D) surface deformation caused by an earthquake is very important for the environmental, cultural, economic and social sustainability of human beings. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) systems made it possible to measure precise 3D deformations by combining SAR interferometry (InSAR) and multiple aperture interferometry (MAI). In this paper, we retrieve the 3D surface deformation field of the 2010 Haiti earthquake which occurred on January 12, 2010 by a magnitude 7.0 Mw by using the advanced interferometric technique that integrates InSAR and MAI data. The surface deformation has been observed by previous researchers using the InSAR and GPS method, but 3D deformation has not been measured yet due to low interferometric coherence. The combination of InSAR and MAI were applied to the ALOS PALSAR ascending and descending pairs, and were validated with the GPS in-situ measurements. The archived measurement accuracy was as little as 1.85, 5.49 and 3.08 cm in the east, north and up directions, respectively. This result indicates that the InSAR/MAI-derived 3D deformations are well matched with the GPS deformations. The 3D deformations are expected to allow us to improve estimation of the area affected by the 2010 Haiti earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: In October 2012, the Haitian Ministry of Health endorsed the “Option B+” strategy to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of HIV and achieve HIV epidemic control. The objective of this paper is to assess and identify risk factors for attrition from the national ART program among Option B+ patients in the 12 months after ART initiation. Design: This retrospective cohort study included patients newly initiating ART from October 2012-August 2013 at 68 ART sites covering 45% of all newly enrolled ART patients in all regions of Haiti. Methods: With data from electronic medical records, we carried out descriptive analysis of sociodemographic, clinical, and pregnancy-related correlates of ART attrition, and used a modified Poisson regression approach to estimate relative risks in a multivariable model. Results: There were 2,166 Option B+ patients who initiated ART, of whom 1,023 were not retained by 12 months (47.2%). One quarter (25.3%) dropped out within 3 months of ART initiation. Protective factors included older age, more advanced HIV disease progression, and any adherence counseling prior to ART initiation, while risk factors included starting ART late in gestation, starting ART within 7 days of HIV testing, and using an atypical ART regimen. Discussion: Our study demonstrates early ART attrition among Option B+ patients and contributes evidence on the characteristics of women who are most at risk of attrition in Haiti. Our findings highlight the importance of targeted strategies to support retention among Option B+ patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bahamian hutias (Geocapromys ingrahami) are the only endemic terrestrial mammal in The Bahamas and are currently classified as a vulnerable species. Drawing on zooarchaeological and new geochemical datasets, this study investigates human management of Bahamian hutias as cultural practice at indigenous Lucayan settlements in The Bahamas and the Turks & Caicos Islands. In order to determine how hutia diet and distribution together were influenced by Lucayan groups we conducted isotopic analysis on native hutia bone and tooth enamel recovered at the Major’s Landing site on Crooked Island in The Bahamas and introduced hutias from the Palmetto Junction site on Providenciales in the Turks & Caicos Islands. Results indicate that some hutias consumed 13C-enriched foods that were either provisioned or available for opportunistic consumption. Strontium isotope ratios for hutia tooth enamel show a narrow range consistent with local origin for all of the archaeological specimens. In contrast, analysis of strontium isotopes in modern Bahamian hutia teeth from animals relocated to Florida from The Bahamas demonstrates that these animals rapidly lost their Bahamian signature and adopted a Florida signature. Therefore, strontium should be used cautiously for determining hutia provenance, particularly for individuals that were translocated between islands. Overall, our findings suggest that ancient human presence did not always result in hutia vulnerability and that the impact to hutia populations was variable across pre-Columbian indigenous settlements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A severe neurological disorder, Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is the leading cause of acute flaccid paralysis. Enhanced surveillance of GBS in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) following the 2015–2016 Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic presents an opportunity to estimate, for the first time, the regional incidence of GBS. Methods and findings: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched nine scientific databases and grey literature from January 1, 1980 to October 1, 2018. Sources with primary data on incident GBS cases in LAC within a well-defined population and timeframe, published in English, Spanish, Portuguese, or French, were included. We calculated the annual GBS incidence rates (IRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each source based on published data. Following an assessment of heterogeneity, we used random-effects meta-analysis to calculate the pooled annual IR of GBS. The study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018086659. Of the 6586 initial citation hits, 31 were eligible for inclusion. Background annual GBS IRs in Latin America ranged from 0.40 in Brazil to 2.12/100,000 in Chile. The pooled annual IR in the Caribbean was 1.64 (95% CI 1.29–2.12, I2<0.01, p = 0.44). During the ZIKV epidemic, GBS IRs ranged from 0.62 in Mexico to 9.35/100,000 in Martinique. GBS increased 2.6 (95% CI 2.3–2.9) times during ZIKV and 1.9 (95% CI 1.1–3.4) times during chikungunya outbreaks over background rates. A limitation of this review is that the studies included employed different methodologies to find and ascertain cases of GBS, which could contribute to IR heterogeneity. In addition, it is important to consider that data on GBS are lacking for many countries in the region. Conclusions: Background IRs of GBS appear to peak during arboviral disease outbreaks. The current review contributes to an understanding of the epidemiology of GBS in the LAC region, which can inform healthcare system planning and preparedness, particularly during arboviral epidemics. Trial registration: Registered with PROSPERO: . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hypogeococcus pungens, a mealybug native of southern South America, is devastating native cacti in Puerto Rico and threatening cactus diversity in the Caribbean, and potentially in Central and North America. The taxonomic status of H. pungens is controversial since it has been reported feeding not only on Cactaceae but also on other plant families throughout its distribution range. However, in Australia, where the species had been exported from Argentina to control weedy American cacti, it was never found on host plants other than Cactaceae. These conflicting pieces of evidence not only cast doubt on the species identity that invaded Puerto Rico, but also have a negative impact on the search for natural enemies to be used in biological control programs against this pest. Here we present reproductive incompatibility and phylogenetic evidences that give support to the hypothesis that H. pungens is a species complex in which divergence appears to be driven by the host plants. The nuclear EF1α and 18S and the mitochondrial COI genes were used as markers to evaluate the phylogenetic relationships among H. pungens populations collected in Argentina, Australia and Puerto Rico feeding on Cactaceae and/or Amaranthaceae. Additionally, we conducted reciprocal crosses between mealybugs from both hosts. Species delimitation analysis revealed two well-supported putative species within H. pungens, one including mealybugs feeding on Amaranthaceae (H. pungens sensu stricto), and a new undescribed species using Cactaceae as hosts. Additionally, we found asymmetric reproductive incompatibility between these putative species suggesting recent reproductive isolation. The Bayesian species delimitation also suggested that the Australian mealybug population may derive from another undescribed species. Overall, the patterns of genetic differentiation may be interpreted as the result of recent speciation events prompted by host plant shifts. Finally, the finding of a single haplotype in the Puerto Rico population suggests only one invasive event. We still need to identify the geographical origin of the pest in order to enable the use of biological control to reduce the threat to cacti diversity in the Caribbean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of regional trends in the rural-urban fertility gradient helps us to understand the pace of completion of the fertility transition and the geography of urban growth in the global South. We question whether the hypothesized inverted U-shaped evolution in rural excess fertility is confirmed in four developing regions, and investigate the underlying fertility dynamics by place of residence. Using multiple surveys for 60 developing countries, we analyze long-term rural and urban trends in cohort fertility. The regional comparison is controlled for the international heterogeneity in the stages attained in the fertility transition and the context of urbanization. We found a clearly inverted U-shaped trend in the rural-urban fertility gradient in Latin America, the Middle East and Northern Africa. In Asia, rural excess fertility remained limited. In sub-Saharan Africa it increased monotonically until the most recent cohorts. These differences stem from variations in the urban-to-rural diffusion of the onset of fertility transition and, in sub-Saharan Africa, from a slower pace of decline in rural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examines the potential influence of sub-regional variations in climate, and specifically heavy rain events, in determining relative vulnerabilities of locations in twelve Caribbean countries. An aggregate vulnerability index, referred to as the Caribbean Vulnerability Score (CVS), is created using historical demographic and socioeconomic data and climate data representing extreme rain events. Four scenarios are explored. Firstly, comparative vulnerabilities are determined when heavy rainfall is incorporated in CVS versus when it is excluded. The impact of climate change is also investigated using future climate data derived from statistical downscaling but holding demographic and socioeconomic sub-indices constant. The analysis is repeated with projections of future demographic structure from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway data (SSP3), future climate projections and constant socioeconomic. Finally, the sensitivity of the results is examined with respect to applying different weights i.e. versus using equal weights for the climate and non-climatic components of CVS as is done for the first three scenarios. Results suggest that the inclusion of historical susceptibility to rainfall extremes influences relative vulnerabilities within the Caribbean when compared to the rankings of vulnerability derived using only socioeconomic and demographic inputs. In some cases significant increases in relative rankings are noted. Projected changes in the intensity of rain events across the Caribbean region in the 2030s and 2050s, do not significantly alter the top and lowest ranked vulnerable locations when demographic and socioeconomic indices are held constant. Changes may however occur in the order of the top ranked locations dependent on scenario and time slice. In general, future shifts in relative vulnerabilities were found to be dependent on (i) changes in both future climate and demographic scenarios, (ii) the time horizons being considered, and (iii) the weighting assigned to climate in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measuring quality of care in family planning services is essential for policymakers and stakeholders. However, there is limited agreement on which mathematical approaches are best able to summarize quality of care. Our study used data from recent Service Provision Assessment surveys in Haiti, Malawi, and Tanzania to compare three methods commonly used to create summary indices of quality of care—a simple additive, a weighted additive that applies equal weights among domains, and principal components analysis (PCA) based methods. The PCA results indicated that the first component cannot sufficiently summarize quality of care. For each scoring method, we categorized family planning facilities into low, medium, and high quality and assessed the agreement with Cohen’s kappa coefficient between pairs of scores. We found that the agreement was generally highest between the simple additive and PCA rankings. Given the limitations of simple additive measures, and the findings of the PCA, we suggest using a weighted additive method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EQ-5D instrument is now used in many health systems as a health outcomes measure. Recently an EQ-5D valuation study was conducted for Trinidad and Tobago, but thus far there have been no population norms published for Trinidad and Tobago or for any Caribbean country. The objective of this study is to provide a set of population norms, and to investigate inequalities in health in Trinidad and Tobago. The EQ-5D-5L questionnaire was included in the 2012/2013 Adult Population Survey of the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor for Trinidad and Tobago. This survey covered a representative sample of 2,036 adults aged 18 and over. Demographic data and self-reported health using EQ-5D-5L were collected. The Trinidad and Tobago value set was used to obtain EQ-5D index values. The Kakwani index and logistic regression models were used to evaluate inequalities in health. Mean EQ-5D index values and EQ-VAS values were calculated by age group, ethnicity, gender, income, educational attainment, employment status and place of residence. The 10 most commonly observed EQ-5D-5L states accounted for 90% of the respondents. The mean VAS value for the sample was 83.6 and the mean EQ-5D-5L index value was 0.95. Pain/discomfort was found to be the EQ-5D dimension with the highest prevalence of reported problems with 22% of the population reporting pain at any level. Self-care was the dimension with the lowest prevalence of problems reported at any level (3%). Health declines with increasing age, and men reported fewer problems and higher levels of self-reported health than women. Age, gender and education level were found to be important drivers of health status as measured by the EQ-5D instrument. Being in a very low income group was also observed to affect EQ-VAS values among younger respondents. The population norms provided in this study can be used by clinicians, academics and policy makers in several ways. They can be used in comparing different demographic groups or patient groups, or as a basis for tracking the progress of patients through a treatment regimen. They can also provide a baseline for cost utility analysis of health interventions for Trinidad and Tobago. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although most countries face increasing population levels of obesity and diabetes their effect on coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality has not been often studied in small island developing states (SIDs) where obesity rates are among the highest in the world. We estimated the relative contributions of treatments and cardiovascular risk factors to the decline in CHD mortality from 1990 to 2012 in the Caribbean island, Barbados. Methods: We used the IMPACT CHD mortality model to estimate the effect of increased coverage of effective medical/surgical treatments and changes in major CHD risk factors on mortality trends in 2012 compared with 1990. We calculated deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) for each model risk factor and treatment group. We obtained data from WHO Mortality database, population denominators from the Barbados Statistical Service stratified by 10-year age group (ages 25–34 up to 85 plus), population-based risk factor surveys, Global Burden of Disease and Barbados’ national myocardial infarction registry. Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. Results: In 1990 the age-standardized CHD mortality rate was 109.5 per 100,000 falling to 55.3 in 2012. Implementation of effective treatment accounted for 56% DPPs (95% (Uncertainty Interval (UI) 46%, 68%), mostly due to the introduction of treatments immediately after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (14%) and unstable angina (14%). Overall, risk factors contributed 19% DPPs (95% UI 6% to 34%) mostly attributed to decline in cholesterol (18% DPPs, 95% UI 12%, 26%). Adverse trends in diabetes: 14% additional deaths(ADs) 95% UI 8% to 21% ADs) and BMI (2% ADs 95%UI 0 to 5% ADs) limited potential for risk factor gains. Conclusions: Given the significant negative impact of obesity/diabetes on mortality in this analysis, research that explores factors affecting implementation of evidenced-based preventive strategies is needed. The fact that most of the decline in CHD mortality in Barbados was due to treatment provides an example for SIDs about the advantages of universal access to care and treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Madariaga virus (MADV), also known as South American eastern equine encephalitis virus, has been identified in animals and humans in South and Central America, but not previously in Hispaniola or the northern Caribbean. MADV was isolated from virus cultures of plasma from an 8-year-old child in a school cohort in the Gressier/Leogane region of Haiti, who was seen in April, 2015, with acute febrile illness (AFI). The virus was subsequently cultured from an additional seven AFI case patients from this same cohort in February, April, and May 2016. Symptoms most closely resembled those seen with confirmed dengue virus infection. Sequence data were available for four isolates: all were within the same clade, with phylogenetic and molecular clock data suggesting recent introduction of the virus into Haiti from Panama sometime in the period from October 2012-January 2015. Our data document the movement of MADV into Haiti, and raise questions about the potential for further spread in the Caribbean or North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the UK, people of black Caribbean (BC) ethnicity continue to be disproportionately affected by bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and Trichomonas vaginalis (TV). We systematically reviewed evidence on the association between bacterial STIs/TV and ethnicity (BC compared to white/white British (WB)) accounting for other risk factors; and differences between these two ethnic groups in the prevalence of risk factors associated with these STIs, sexual healthcare seeking behaviours, and contextual factors influencing STI risk. Methods: Studies presenting relevant evidence for participants aged ≥14 years and living in the UK were eligible for inclusion. A pre-defined search strategy informed by the inclusion criteria was developed. Eleven electronic databases were searched from the start date to September-October 2016. Two researchers independently screened articles, extracted data using a standardised proforma and resolved discrepancies in discussion with a third researcher. Descriptive summaries of evidence are presented. Meta-analyses were not conducted due to variation in study designs. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines were followed. Results: Of 3815 abstracts identified, 15 articles reporting quantitative data were eligible and included in the review. No qualitative studies examining contextual drivers of STI risk among people of BC ethnicity were identified. Compared to the white/WB ethnic group, the greater STI/TV risk among BCs was partially explained by variations in socio-demographic factors, sexual behaviours, and recreational drug use. The prevalence of reporting early sexual debut (<16 years), concurrency, and multiple partners was higher among BC men compared to white/WB men; however, no such differences were observed for women. People of BC ethnicity were more likely to access sexual health services than those of white/WB ethnicity. Conclusions: Further research is needed to explore other drivers of the sustained higher STI/TV prevalence among people of BC ethnicity. Developing holistic, tailored interventions that address STI risk and target people of BC ethnicity, especially men, could enhance STI prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) has targeted yaws for global eradication. Eradication requires certification that all countries are yaws-free. While only 14 Member States currently report cases to WHO, many more are known to have a history of yaws and some of them may have ongoing transmission. We reviewed the literature and developed a model of case reports to identify countries in which passive surveillance is likely to find and report cases if transmission is still occurring, with the goal of reducing the number of countries in which more costly active surveillance will be required. Methods: We reviewed published and unpublished documents to extract data on the number of yaws cases reported to WHO or appearing in other literature in any year between 1945 and 2015. We classified countries as: a) having interrupted transmission; b) being currently endemic; c) being previously endemic (current status unknown); or d) having no history of yaws. We constructed a panel dataset for the years 1945–2015 and ran a regression model to identify factors associated with some countries not reporting cases during periods when there was ongoing (and documented) transmission. For previously endemic countries whose current status is unknown, we then estimated the probability that countries would have reported cases if there had in fact been transmission in the last three years (2013–2015). Results: Yaws has been reported in 103 of the 237 countries and areas considered. 14 Member States and 1 territory (Wallis and Futuna Islands) are currently endemic. 2 countries are believed to have interrupted transmission. 86 countries and areas are previously endemic (current status unknown). Reported cases peaked in the 1950s, with 55 countries reporting at least one case in 1950 and a total of 2.35 million cases reported in 1954. Our regression model suggests that case reporting during periods of ongoing transmission is positively associated with socioeconomic development and, in the short-term, negatively associated with independence. We estimated that for 66 out of the 86 previously endemic countries whose current status is unknown, the probability of reporting cases in the absence of active surveillance is less than 50%. Discussion: Countries with a history of yaws need to be prioritized so that international resources for global yaws eradication may be deployed efficiently. Heretofore, the focus has been on mass treatment in countries currently reporting cases. It is also important to undertake surveillance in the 86 previously endemic countries for which the current status is unknown. Within this large and diverse group, we have identified a group of 20 countries with more than a 50% probability of reporting cases in the absence of active surveillance. For the other 66 countries, international support for active surveillance will likely be required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Restoring and conserving coastal resilience faces increasing challenges under current climate change predictions. Oyster restoration, in particular, faces threats from alterations in precipitation, warming water temperatures, and urbanization of coastlines that dramatically change salinity patterns, foster the proliferation and spread disease, and disrupt habitat connectivity, respectively. New York City (NYC) coastal waters, once home to a booming oyster fishery for eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica), are now nearly devoid of live oyster reefs. Oyster restoration in urban estuaries is motivated by the synergistic ecosystem benefits this native keystone species can deliver. Recent surveys have documented substantial remnant populations of adult oysters in the upper low salinity zone of the Hudson/Raritan Estuary (HRE) near Tarrytown, NY. This study assessed fitness-related performance across the HRE salinity gradient to evaluate habitat suitability on an estuarine scale. Oysters were hatchery-produced from wild, moderate-salinity broodstock, then outplanted for measurement of growth, survival, reproduction and disease prevalence over two years. Survival was generally higher in the lower salinity river sites and in the higher salinity Jamaica Bay sites relative to mesohaline NYC harbor sites. Growth rate was highest in Jamaica Bay and had high variation among other sites. Surprisingly, the highest proportion of individuals with sex-differentiated gametes and the highest average gonad maturation index was found at a low salinity site. Consistent with the advanced gametogenesis measured in experimental animals at low salinity, annual wild recruitment was documented near the low salinity remnant population in each of five monitored years. These results suggest that the remnant HRE oyster population is a robust, self-sustaining population that can be leveraged to support restoration of subpopulations in other parts of the estuary, but further research is required to determine if the mesohaline and near-ocean reaches of the HRE can support the full oyster life cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Approximately 59,000 people die from rabies worldwide annually. Haiti is one of the last remaining countries in the Western Hemisphere with endemic canine rabies. Canine-mediated rabies deaths are preventable with post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP): wound treatment, immunoglobulin, and vaccination. In countries where PEP is available, variability in healthcare seeking behaviors and lack of adherence to recommended treatment guidelines could also contribute to these deaths. Yet, few studies have addressed these issues. Methods: We examined animal-bite reporting and assessed adherence to treatment guidelines at nine healthcare facilities in Haiti. We analyzed individual-level, de-identified patient data (demographic characteristics, geographic location, healthcare facility type, vaccine administration, and bite injury information) using descriptive analyses and logistic regression to examine factors associated with receiving PEP. Findings: During the 6 month study period, we found 2.5 times more animal-bite case-patients than reported by the national surveillance system (690 versus 274). Of the 690 animal-bite patients identified, 498 (72%) sought care at six PEP providing facilities. Of the case-patients that sought care, 110 (22%) received at least one rabies vaccine. Of the 110 patients, 60 (55%) received all five doses. Delays were observed for three events: when patients presented to a facility after an animal-bite (3.0 days, range: 0–34 days), when patients received their fourth dose (16.1 days, range: 13–52 days), and when patients received their fifth dose (29 days, range: 26–52). When comparing vaccination status and patient characteristics, we found a significant association for bite location (p < .001), severity rank score (p < .001), geographic location (p < .001), and healthcare facility type (p = .002) with vaccination. Conclusion: High levels of underreporting identified here are of concern since vaccine distribution may, in part, be based on the number of animal-bite cases reported. Given that the Haitian government provides PEP to the population for free and we found animal-bite victims are seeking care in a timely manner─ reducing rabies deaths is an achievable goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Globally the trajectories of approaches in adoption and implementation of family planning programmes have varied subjecting to variation in cultural and political philosophies across the countries. Accordingly, the progress in family planning has varied over the time across the countries. Objective: This study investigates long-term trajectories of demand for family planning and contraceptive prevalence rates and tests the hypothesis of convergence across the world countries. Methods: This study used data from United Nations Population Prospects for 185 countries and regions during 1970–2015. Standard graphical, parametric and nonparametric convergence metrics have been used for testing of the convergence hypothesis. Results: The results suggest a substantial increase in the global average of both demand and actual prevalence of contraceptive practice across the countries, but the actual contraceptive use is yet to catch up with the demand. Our findings suggest that there is a convergence in contraceptive use across the countries, particularly since the mid-1990s. Conclusion: A major part of the convergence in demand for family planning and contraceptive prevalence rate is due to its stalling in both developed and many developing countries and its increase in several developing and least developed countries. Family planning has a greater role in human wellbeing particularly enhancing reproductive, maternal and child health outcomes than being a mere tool for fertility reduction. Therefore, the emphasis is needed on family planning efforts in the lagged behind countries for global convergence of family planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Over 18 million adults have initiated life-saving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-poor settings; however, mortality and lost-to-follow-up rates continue to be high among patients in their first year after treatment start. Clinical decision tools are needed to identify patients at high risk for poor outcomes in order to provide individualized risk assessment and intervention. This study aimed to develop and externally validate risk prediction tools that estimate the probability of dying or of being lost to follow-up (LTF) during the year after starting ART. Methods: We used a derivation cohort of 7,031 adults age 15–70 years initiating ART from 2007 to 2013 at 6 clinics in Haiti; 242 (3.5%) had documented death and 1,521 (21.6%) were LTF at 1 year after starting ART. The following routinely collected data were used as predictors in two logistic regression models (one to predict death and another to predict LTF): age, gender, weight, CD4 count, WHO Stage, and diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB). The validation cohort consisted of 1,835 adults initiating ART at a different HIV clinic in Haiti during 2012. We assessed model discrimination by measuring the C-statistic, and measured model calibration by how closely the predicted probabilities approximated actual probabilities of the two outcomes. We derived a nomogram and a point-based risk score from the predictive models. Findings: The model predicting death within the year after starting ART had a C-statistic of 0.75 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.81). There was no evidence for significant overfitting and the predictions were well calibrated. The strongest predictors of 1-year mortality were male gender, low weight, low CD4 count, advanced WHO stage, and the absence of TB. In the validation cohort, the C-statistic was 0.69 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.77). A point-based risk score for death had a C-statistic 0.73 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.76) and categorizes patients as low risk (<2% risk of death), average risk (3–4%), and high-risk (8–10%) and very high-risk (14–19%) with likelihood ratios to be used in settings where the baseline risk is different from our study population. The model predicting LTF did not discriminate well (C-statistic 0.59). Conclusions: A simple risk-score using routinely collected data can predict 1-year mortality after ART initiation for HIV-positive adults in Haiti. However, predicting lost to follow-up using routinely collected data was not as successful. The next step is to assess whether use of this risk score can identify patients who need tailored services to reduce mortality in resource-poor settings such as Haiti. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diversity patterns of the deep-sea megafauna in the Caribbean Basin and the Guiana ecoregion were analyzed in order to test the hypothesis of species richness variation as a function of depth and the hypothesis of non-differences between ecoregions by analyzing spatial patterns of five taxa and a merged assemblage. Collections of five taxa (corals, sea stars, sea urchins, sea lilies and gastropods) were obtained from seven oceanographic expeditions aboard the R/V Pillsbury at 310 stations between 60 and 7500 m depth. Data were sorted according to depth zones and ecoregions and were analyzed in order to estimate species richness, changes in species composition and distinction of β-diversity by species turnover or by nestedness. The observed patterns of diversity were consistent between taxa and their assemblage: Species richness increased from the continental shelf (60–200 m deep) to the slope (200–2000 m deep), followed by a decrease at the continental rise-abyssal zone. We detected marked changes in species composition according to depth ranges. Changes in species composition in relation to ecoregions were also detected. In general, the Caribbean Basin lacks important physical barriers, causing high deep-sea ecosystem connectivity; however, variation in composition could be related to changes in environmental conditions associated with productivity and/or continental influences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Over the last 5 years (2013-2017), the Caribbean region has faced an unprecedented crisis of co-occurring epidemics of febrile illness due to arboviruses transmitted by the Aedes sp. mosquito (dengue, chikungunya, and Zika). Since 2013, the Caribbean island of Barbados has experienced 3 dengue outbreaks, 1 chikungunya outbreak, and 1 Zika fever outbreak. Prior studies have demonstrated that climate variability influences arbovirus transmission and vector population dynamics in the region, indicating the potential to develop public health interventions using climate information. The aim of this study is to quantify the nonlinear and delayed effects of climate indicators, such as drought and extreme rainfall, on dengue risk in Barbados from 1999 to 2016.Methods and Findings: Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) coupled with a hierarchal mixed-model framework were used to understand the exposure-lag-response association between dengue relative risk and key climate indicators, including the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and minimum temperature (Tmin). The model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework to produce probabilistic predictions of exceeding an island-specific outbreak threshold. The ability of the model to successfully detect outbreaks was assessed and compared to a baseline model, representative of standard dengue surveillance practice. Drought conditions were found to positively influence dengue relative risk at long lead times of up to 5 months, while excess rainfall increased the risk at shorter lead times between 1 and 2 months. The SPI averaged over a 6-month period (SPI-6), designed to monitor drought and extreme rainfall, better explained variations in dengue risk than monthly precipitation data measured in millimetres. Tmin was found to be a better predictor than mean and maximum temperature. Furthermore, including bidimensional exposure-lag-response functions of these indicators-rather than linear effects for individual lags-more appropriately described the climate-disease associations than traditional modelling approaches. In prediction mode, the model was successfully able to distinguish outbreaks from nonoutbreaks for most years, with an overall proportion of correct predictions (hits and correct rejections) of 86% (81%:91%) compared with 64% (58%:71%) for the baseline model. The ability of the model to predict dengue outbreaks in recent years was complicated by the lack of data on the emergence of new arboviruses, including chikungunya and Zika.Conclusion: We present a modelling approach to infer the risk of dengue outbreaks given the cumulative effect of climate variations in the months leading up to an outbreak. By combining the dengue prediction model with climate indicators, which are routinely monitored and forecasted by the Regional Climate Centre (RCC) at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), probabilistic dengue outlooks could be included in the Caribbean Health-Climatic Bulletin, issued on a quarterly basis to provide climate-smart decision-making guidance for Caribbean health practitioners. This flexible modelling approach could be extended to model the risk of dengue and other arboviruses in the Caribbean region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the Caribbean region, a notable difference in HPV-prevalence and genotypes distribution between the islands is observed. Recently we found in Curaçao a low incidence of HPV16 and 18 in cervical cancer compared to the standard world population. We aimed to determine HPV-prevalence, HPV-genotype distribution and associated risk-factors in women from Curaçao. Methods: 5000 women aged 25–65 years were randomly selected from the national Population Register. HPV was detected by means of GP5+/6+PCR EIA and GP 5+/6+amplimers from HPV-positive samples were genotyped with a reverse hybridisation assay. We also collected personal data and data on risk-factors. Results: 1075 women were enrolled in the study. Overall HPV-prevalence was 19.7%. Most frequent genotypes were HPV16 (2.3%), 35 (2.1%) and 52 (1.8%). Twenty-seven women detected with abnormal cytology (i.e.≥ASC-US) were referred for biopsy. In women with normal cytology (n = 1048), HPV-prevalence was 17.9% and the most common high-risk HPV (hrHPV)-types were HPV35 (2.0%), 18 (1.8%), 16 (1.5%) and 52 (1.5%). The highest HPV-prevalence (32.8%) was found in the age-group: 25–34 (n = 247). HPV positive women started sex at a younger age (p = 0.032). Conclusions: HPV-prevalence in the overall population is high and HPV16 was the most common genotype followed by 35 and 18. In women with normal cytology HPV35 is the most common genotype followed by HPV18, 52 and 16. The high HPV-prevalence (32.8%) in women of 25–34 years argue for introduction of cervical cancer prevention strategies. HPV-type distribution found in Curaçao should be taken into account when considering the choice for prophylactic vaccination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II) is currently one of the most widely used measures in both research and clinical practice for assessing depression. Although the psychometric properties of the scale have been well established through many studies worldwide, so far there is no study examining the validity and reliability of BDI-II in Republic Dominican. The purpose of the present study was twofold: (a) to examine the latent structure of BDI-II by testing several competing models proposed in the literature; and (b) to provide evidence of validity and reliability of the BDI-II in Republic Dominican. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated that a bifactor model with a general depression factor and three specific factors consisting of cognitive, affective and somatic showed the best fit to the data. Internal reliability was moderate to high for all subscales and for the total scale. Scores on BDI-II discriminated between clinical and general population, supporting for external validity. Practical implications are discussed and suggestions for further research are also made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

West Nile (WN) virus has been detected in Guadeloupe since 2002. Even if no WN human cases have been detected so far, mosquitoes from Culex genus especially Culex quinquefasciatus are recognized as potential WN vectors in Guadeloupe. To evaluate the impact of local vector control activities on this mosquito species we assessed the resistance levels of Cx. quinquefasciatus populations from three different sites from Guadeloupe (Abymes, Saint François and Gourbeyre) to malathion, temephos and deltamethrin. In addition, the frequencies of the L1014F kdr and the G119S ace-1 mutations were established in Cx. quinquefasciatus populations, as well as the constitutive expressions of five cytochrome P450 genes. Mosquito populations tested displayed high resistance to deltamethrin, moderate resistance to malathion (Abymes, Gourbeyre) and low resistance to temephos (Abymes et Gourbeyre). Molecular analyses revealed high frequencies of both L1014F kdr and G119S ace-1 mutations in Cx. quinquefasciatus populations, as well as overexpression of cytochrome P450 genes CYP9J45, CYP9J40 and CYP6AA7. Finally, deltamethrin resistance and knock-down rates were strongly correlated with the frequency of the resistant kdr and ace-1 alleles, as well as with CYP9J40 overexpression. These results should be taken into account to refine the current vector control strategies to prevent the appearance of Cx. quinquefasciatus-borne diseases in Guadeloupe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the use of a mental health mobile clinic to overcome two major challenges to the provision of mental healthcare in resource-limited settings: the shortage of trained specialists; and the need to improve access to safe, effective, and culturally sound care in community settings. Employing task-shifting and supervision, mental healthcare was largely delivered by trained, non-specialist health workers instead of specialists. A retrospective chart review of 318 unduplicated patients assessed and treated during the mobile clinic’s first two years (January 2012 to November 2013) was conducted to explore outcomes. These data were supplemented by a quality improvement questionnaire, illustrative case reports, and a qualitative interview with the mobile clinic’s lead community health worker. The team evaluated an average of 42 patients per clinic session. The most common mental, neurological, or substance abuse (MNS) disorders were depression and epilepsy. Higher follow-up rates were seen among those with diagnoses of bipolar disorder and neurological conditions, while those with depression or anxiety had lower follow-up rates. Persons with mood disorders who were evaluated on at least two separate occasions using a locally developed depression screening tool experienced a significant reduction in depressive symptoms. The mental health mobile clinic successfully treated a wide range of MNS disorders in rural Haiti and provided care to individuals who previously had no consistent access to mental healthcare. Efforts to address these common barriers to the provision of mental healthcare in resource-limited settings should consider supplementing clinic-based with mobile services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various natural and manmade disasters during last decades have highlighted the need of further improving on governmental preparedness to emergency events, and a relief supplies distribution problem named Inventory Slack Routing Problem (ISRP) has received increasing attentions. In an ISRP, inventory slack is defined as the duration between reliefs arriving time and estimated inventory stock-out time. Hence, a larger inventory slack could grant more responsive time in facing of various factors (e.g., traffic congestion) that may lead to delivery lateness. In this study, the relief distribution problem is formulated as an optimization model that maximize the minimum slack among all dispensing sites. To efficiently solve this problem, we propose a two-stage approach to tackle the vehicle routing and relief allocation sub-problems. By analyzing the inter-relations between these two sub-problems, a new objective function considering both delivery durations and dispensing rates of demand sites is applied in the first stage to design the vehicle routes. A hierarchical routing approach and a sweep approach are also proposed in this stage. Given the vehicle routing plan, the relief allocation could be easily solved in the second stage. Numerical experiment with a comparison of multi-vehicle Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) has demonstrated the need of ISRP and the capability of the proposed solution approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Model-based epidemiological assessment is useful to support decision-making at the beginning of an emerging Aedes-transmitted outbreak. However, early forecasts are generally unreliable as little information is available in the first few incidence data points. Here, we show how past Aedes-transmitted epidemics help improve these predictions. The approach was applied to the 2015–2017 Zika virus epidemics in three islands of the French West Indies, with historical data including other Aedes-transmitted diseases (Chikungunya and Zika) in the same and other locations. Hierarchical models were used to build informative a priori distributions on the reproduction ratio and the reporting rates. The accuracy and sharpness of forecasts improved substantially when these a priori distributions were used in models for prediction. For example, early forecasts of final epidemic size obtained without historical information were 3.3 times too high on average (range: 0.2 to 5.8) with respect to the eventual size, but were far closer (1.1 times the real value on average, range: 0.4 to 1.5) using information on past CHIKV epidemics in the same places. Likewise, the 97.5% upper bound for maximal incidence was 15.3 times (range: 2.0 to 63.1) the actual peak incidence, and became much sharper at 2.4 times (range: 1.3 to 3.9) the actual peak incidence with informative a priori distributions. Improvements were more limited for the date of peak incidence and the total duration of the epidemic. The framework can adapt to all forecasting models at the early stages of emerging Aedes-transmitted outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an urgent need for an improved empirical understanding of the relationship among biodiverse marine resources, human health and development outcomes. Coral reefs are often at this intersection for developing nations in the tropics—an ecosystem targeted for biodiversity conservation and one that provides sustenance and livelihoods for many coastal communities. To explore these relationships, we use the comparative development contexts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic on the island of Hispaniola. We combine child nutrition data from the Demographic Health Survey with coastal proximity and coral reef habitat diversity, and condition to empirically test human benefits of marine natural resources in differing development contexts. Our results indicate that coastal children have a reduced likelihood of severe stunting in Haiti but have increased likelihoods of stunting and reduced dietary diversity in the Dominican Republic. These contrasting results are likely due to the differential in developed infrastructure and market access. Our analyses did not demonstrate an association between more diverse and less degraded coral reefs and better childhood nutrition. The results highlight the complexities of modelling interactions between the health of humans and natural systems, and indicate the next steps needed to support integrated development programming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to understand trends in global fertility from 1950-2010 though the analysis of age-specific fertility rates. This approach incorporates both the overall level, as when the total fertility rate is modeled, and different patterns of age-specific fertility to examine the relationship between changes in age-specific fertility and fertility decline. Singular value decomposition is used to capture the variation in age-specific fertility curves while reducing the number of dimensions, allowing curves to be described nearly fully with three parameters. Regional patterns and trends over time are evident in parameter values, suggesting this method provides a useful tool for considering fertility decline globally. The second and third parameters were analyzed using model-based clustering to examine patterns of age-specific fertility over time and place; four clusters were obtained. A country’s demographic transition can be traced through time by membership in the different clusters, and regional patterns in the trajectories through time and with fertility decline are identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico) during four dengue seasons: 1) peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2) peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred); and 3) total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date. Methods: Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1) two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2) additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3) simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations. Principal findings: Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week. Conclusions: The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Within the context of a field trial conducted by the Cuban vector control program (AaCP), we assessed acceptability of insecticide-treated curtains (ITCs) and residual insecticide treatment (RIT) with deltamethrin by the community. We also assessed the potential influence of interviewees’ risk perceptions for getting dengue and disease severity. Methodology/principal findings: We embedded a qualitative study using in-depth interviews in a cluster randomized trial (CRT) testing the effectiveness of ITCs and RIT in Santiago de Cuba. In-depth interviews (N = 38) were conducted four and twelve months after deployment of the tools with people who accepted the tools, who stopped using them and who did not accept the tools. Data analysis was deductive. Main reasons for accepting ITCs at the start of the trial were perceived efficacy and not being harmful to health. Constraints linked to manufacturer instructions were the main reason for not using ITCs. People stopped using the ITCs due to perceived allergy, toxicity and low efficacy. Few heads of households refused RIT despite the noting reasons for rejection, such as allergy, health hazard and toxicity. Positive opinions of the vector control program influenced acceptability of both tools. However, frequent insecticide fogging as part of routine AaCP vector control actions diminished perceived efficacy of both tools and, therefore, acceptability. Fifty percent of interviewees did feel at risk for getting dengue and considered dengue a severe disease. However, this did not appear to influence acceptability of ITCs or RIT. Conclusion/significance: Acceptability of ITCs and RIT was linked to acceptability of AaCP routine vector control activities. However, uptake and use were not always an indication of acceptability. Factors leading to acceptability may be best identified using qualitative methods, but more research is needed on the concept of acceptability and its measurement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Obesity is rising globally and is associated with increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. This study aims to investigate overweight and obesity and its consequences among Jamaican women of reproductive age, particularly development of diabetes, hypertension and the risk of maternal death. Materials and methods: A national lifestyle survey (2007/8) of 1371 women of reproductive age provided data on the prevalence of high BMI, associated risk factors and co-morbidities. A national maternal mortality surveillance database (1998–2012) of 798 maternal deaths was used to investigate maternal deaths in obese women. Chi-squared and Fisher exact tests were used. Results: High BMI (> = 25kg/m2) occurred in 63% of women aged between 15 and 49 years. It was associated with increasing age, high gravidity and parity, and full time employment (p<0.001). Of those with high BMI, 5.5% were diabetic, 19.3% hypertensive and 2.8% were both diabetic and hypertensive. Obesity was recorded in 10.5% of maternal deaths, with higher proportions of deaths due to hypertension in pregnancy (27.5%), circulatory/ cardiovascular disorders (13.0%), and diabetes (4.3%) compared to 21.9%, 6.9% and 2.6% respectively in non-obese women. Conclusions: This is one of a few studies from a middle-income setting to explore maternal burden of obesity during pregnancy, which contributes to improving the knowledge base, identifying the gaps in information and increasing awareness of the growing problem of maternal overweight and obesity. While survey diagnostic conditions require cautious interpretation of findings, it is clear that obesity and related medical conditions present a substantial public health problem for emerging LMICs like Jamaica. There is an urgent need for global consensus on routine measures of the burden and risk factors associated with obesity and development of culturally appropriate interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Aedes control interventions are considered the cornerstone of dengue control programmes, but there is scarce evidence on their effect on disease. We set-up a cluster randomized controlled trial in Santiago de Cuba to evaluate the entomological and epidemiological effectiveness of periodical intra- and peri-domiciliary residual insecticide (deltamethrin) treatment (RIT) and long lasting insecticide treated curtains (ITC). Methodology/Principal findings: Sixty three clusters (around 250 households each) were randomly allocated to two intervention (RIT and ITC) and one control arm. Routine Aedes control activities (entomological surveillance, source reduction, selective adulticiding, health education) were applied in the whole study area. The outcome measures were clinical dengue case incidence and immature Aedes infestation. Effectiveness of tools was evaluated using a generalized linear regression model with a negative binomial link function. Despite significant reduction in Aedes indices (Rate Ratio (RR) 0.54 (95%CI 0.32–0.89) in the first month after RIT, the effect faded out over time and dengue incidence was not reduced. Overall, in this setting there was no protective effect of RIT or ITC over routine in the 17months intervention period, with for house index RR of 1.16 (95%CI 0.96–1.40) and 1.25 (95%CI 1.03–1.50) and for dengue incidence 1.43 (95%CI 1.08–1.90) and RR of 0.96 (95%CI 0.72–1.28) respectively. The monthly dengue incidence rate (IR) at cluster level was best explained by epidemic periods (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) 5.50 (95%CI 4.14–7.31)), the IR in bordering houseblocks (IRR 1.03 (95%CI 1.02–1.04)) and the IR pre-intervention (IRR 1.02 (95%CI 1.00–1.04)). Conclusions: Adding RIT to an intensive routine Aedes control programme has a transient effect on the already moderate low entomological infestation levels, while ITC did not have any effect. For both interventions, we didn’t evidence impact on disease incidence. Further studies are needed to evaluate impact in settings with high Aedes infestation and arbovirus case load. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Not only do transgender female sex workers have some of the highest rates of sexually transmitted infections (STI), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and experienced stigma, they also have higher likelihood of early sexual debut and some of the lowest levels of educational attainment compared to other stigmatized populations. Some of the most common interventions designed to reduce transmission of HIV and STIs seek to educate high-risk groups on sexual health and encourage condom use across all partner types; however, reaching stigmatized populations, particularly those in resource-limited settings, is particularly challenging. Considering the importance of condom use in stopping the spread of HIV, the aim of this study was two-fold; first to characterize this hard-to-reach population of transgender female sex workers in the Dominican Republic, and second, to assess associations between their HIV knowledge, experienced stigma, and condom use across three partner types. Methods: We analyzed self-reported data from the Questionnaire for Transgender Sex Workers (N = 78). Respondents were interviewed at their workplaces. Univariate and bivariate analyses were employed. Fisher Chi-square tests assessed differences in HIV knowledge and experienced stigma by condom use across partner types. Results: HIV knowledge was alarmingly low, condom use varied across partner type, and the respondents in our sample had high levels of experienced stigma. Average age of first sexual experience was 13.12 years with a youngest age reported of 7. Dominican Republic statutory rape laws indicate 18 years is the age of consent; thus, many of these transgender women’s first sexual encounters would be considered forcible (rape) and constitute a prosecutable crime. On average, respondents reported 8.45 sexual partners in the prior month, with a maximum of 49 partners. Approximately two thirds of respondents used a condom the last time they had sex with a regular partner. This was considerably lower than condom use reported with coercive partners (92.96%) and clients (91.78%). Bivariate analyses revealed two trends: experienced stigma was associated with lower rates of condom use, and lower HIV knowledge was associated with lower rates of condom use. The former provides additional evidence that experienced stigma may become internalized, affecting individual-level behaviors—lowering self-confidence and resilience—making it more difficult to negotiate condom use due to lack of self-efficacy and desire to show trust in one’s partner. The latter supports public health research that suggests gaps in HIV knowledge persist and are pronounced in highly stigmatized populations. Discussion: The vulnerabilities experienced by transgender persons, particularly in environments that vehemently adhere to conservative ideologies related to sex and gender, are significant and harm this population. These vulnerabilities could potentially be addressed through critically examining of impact of policies that indirectly promote or allow victimization of transgender citizens and subsequently diminish the effectiveness of public health and educational interventions. By taking action through the revocation of such laws, the Dominican Republic has the opportunity to improve overall population health, to protect some of its most stigmatized citizens, and to become the flag bearer of enhanced human rights in the Caribbean and Latin America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Delayed notification and lack of early information hinder timely hospital based activations in large scale multiple casualty events. We hypothesized that Twitter real-time data would produce a unique and reproducible signal within minutes of multiple casualty events and we investigated the timing of the signal compared with other hospital disaster notification mechanisms. Methods: Using disaster specific search terms, all relevant tweets from the event to 7 days post-event were analyzed for 5 recent US based multiple casualty events (Boston Bombing [BB], SF Plane Crash [SF], Napa Earthquake [NE], Sandy Hook [SH], and Marysville Shooting [MV]). Quantitative and qualitative analysis of tweet utilization were compared across events. Results: Over 3.8 million tweets were analyzed (SH 1.8 m, BB 1.1m, SF 430k, MV 250k, NE 205k). Peak tweets per min ranged from 209–3326. The mean followers per tweeter ranged from 3382–9992 across events. Retweets were tweeted a mean of 82–564 times per event. Tweets occurred very rapidly for all events (<2 mins) and represented 1% of the total event specific tweets in a median of 13 minutes of the first 911 calls. A 200 tweets/min threshold was reached fastest with NE (2 min), BB (7 min), and SF (18 mins). If this threshold was utilized as a signaling mechanism to place local hospitals on standby for possible large scale events, in all case studies, this signal would have preceded patient arrival. Importantly, this threshold for signaling would also have preceded traditional disaster notification mechanisms in SF, NE, and simultaneous with BB and MV. Conclusions: Social media data has demonstrated that this mechanism is a powerful, predictable, and potentially important resource for optimizing disaster response. Further investigated is warranted to assess the utility of prospective signally thresholds for hospital based activation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The predictable occurrence of whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, has been well documented in several areas. However, information relating to their migratory patterns, residency times and connectivity across broad spatial scales is limited. In the present study photo-identification data is used to describe whale shark population structure and connectivity among known aggregation sites within the Western Central Atlantic Ocean (WCA). From 1999 to 2015, 1,361 individuals were identified from four distinct areas: the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico (n = 1,115); Honduras (n = 146); northern Gulf of Mexico, United States (n = 112), and Belize (n = 49). Seasonal patterns in whale shark occurrence were evident with encounters occurring in the western Caribbean Sea earlier in the year than in the GOM. There was also a significant sex bias with 2.6 times more males present than females. Seventy sharks were observed in more than one area and the highest degree of connectivity occurred among three aggregation sites along the Mesoamerican Reef. Despite this, the majority of resightings occurred in the area where the respective sharks were first identified. This was true for the WCA as a whole, with the exception of Belize. Site fidelity was highest in Mexico. Maximum likelihood modelling resulted in a population estimate of 2,167 (95% c.i. 1585.21–2909.86) sharks throughout the entire region. This study is the first attempt to provide a broad, regional population estimate using photo-identification data from multiple whale shark aggregations. Our aim is to provide population metrics, along with the description of region-scale connectivity, that will help guide conservation action in the WCA. At a global level, rapidly growing photographic databases are allowing for researchers to look beyond the description of single aggregation sites and into the ocean-scale ecology of this pelagic species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid diversification often involves complex histories of gene flow that leave variable and conflicting signatures of evolutionary relatedness across the genome. Identifying the extent and source of variation in these evolutionary relationships can provide insight into the evolutionary mechanisms involved in rapid radiations. Here we compare the discordant evolutionary relationships associated with species phenotypes across 42 whole genomes from a sympatric adaptive radiation of Cyprinodon pupfishes endemic to San Salvador Island, Bahamas and several outgroup pupfish species in order to understand the rarity of these trophic specialists within the larger radiation of Cyprinodon. 82% of the genome depicts close evolutionary relationships among the San Salvador Island species reflecting their geographic proximity, but the vast majority of variants fixed between specialist species lie in regions with discordant topologies. Top candidate adaptive introgression regions include signatures of selective sweeps and adaptive introgression of genetic variation from a single population in the northwestern Bahamas into each of the specialist species. Hard selective sweeps of genetic variation on San Salvador Island contributed 5 times more to speciation of trophic specialists than adaptive introgression of Caribbean genetic variation; however, four of the 11 introgressed regions came from a single distant island and were associated with the primary axis of oral jaw divergence within the radiation. For example, standing variation in a proto-oncogene (ski) known to have effects on jaw size introgressed into one San Salvador Island specialist from an island 300 km away approximately 10 kya. The complex emerging picture of the origins of adaptive radiation on San Salvador Island indicates that multiple sources of genetic variation contributed to the adaptive phenotypes of novel trophic specialists on the island. Our findings suggest that a suite of factors, including rare adaptive introgression, may be necessary for adaptive radiation in addition to ecological opportunity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the heavy regional rainfall and considerable discharge of many rivers into the Colombian Basin, there have been few detailed studies about the dilution of Caribbean Surface Water and the variability of salinity in the southwestern Caribbean. An analysis of the precipitation, evaporation and runoff in relation to the climate variability demonstrates that although the salt balance in the Colombian Basin overall is in equilibrium, the area south of 12°N is an important dilution sub-basin. In the southwest of the basin, in the region of the Panama-Colombia Gyre, Caribbean Sea Water is diluted by precipitation and runoff year round, while in the northeast, off La Guajira, its salinity increases from December to May by upwelling. At the interannual scale, continental runoff is related to El Niño Southern Oscillation, and precipitation and evaporation south of 12°N are related to the Caribbean Low Level Jet. During El Niño years the maximum salinification occurs in the dry season (December-February) while in La Niña years the maximum dilution (or freshening), reaching La Guajira Coastal Zone, occurs in the wet season (September-November). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 2014 and 2016 more than 3,800 imported human cases of chikungunya fever in Florida highlight the high risk for local transmission. To examine the potential for sustained local transmission of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in Florida we tested whether local populations of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus show differences in susceptibility to infection and transmission to two emergent lineages of CHIKV, Indian Ocean (IOC) and Asian genotypes (AC) in laboratory experiments. All examined populations of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes displayed susceptibility to infection, rapid viral dissemination into the hemocoel, and transmission for both emergent lineages of CHIKV. Aedes albopictus had higher disseminated infection and transmission of IOC sooner after ingesting CHIKV infected blood than Ae. aegypti. Aedes aegypti had higher disseminated infection and transmission later during infection with AC than Ae. albopictus. Viral dissemination and transmission of AC declined during the extrinsic incubation period, suggesting that transmission risk declines with length of infection. Interestingly, the reduction in transmission of AC was less in Ae. aegypti than Ae. albopictus, suggesting that older Ae. aegypti females are relatively more competent vectors than similar aged Ae. albopictus females. Aedes aegypti originating from the Dominican Republic had viral dissemination and transmission rates for IOC and AC strains that were lower than for Florida vectors. We identified small-scale geographic variation in vector competence among Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus that may contribute to regional differences in risk of CHIKV transmission in Florida. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda, J.E. Smith) is a noctuid moth that is a major and ubiquitous agricultural pest in the Western Hemisphere. Infestations have recently been identified in several locations in Africa, indicating its establishment in the Eastern Hemisphere where it poses an immediate and significant economic threat. Genetic methods were used to characterize noctuid specimens infesting multiple cornfields in the African nation of Togo that were tentatively identified as fall armyworm by morphological criteria. Species identification was confirmed by DNA barcoding and the specimens were found to be primarily of the subgroup that preferentially infests corn and sorghum in the Western Hemisphere. The mitochondrial haplotype configuration was most similar to that found in the Caribbean region and the eastern coast of the United States, identifying these populations as the likely originating source of the Togo infestations. A genetic marker linked with resistance to the Cry1Fa toxin from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) expressed in transgenic corn and common in Puerto Rico fall armyworm populations was not found in the Togo collections. These observations demonstrate the usefulness of genetic surveys to characterize fall armyworm populations from Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Aedes aegypti, commonly known as “the yellow fever mosquito”, is of great medical concern today primarily as the major vector of dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses, although yellow fever remains a serious health concern in some regions. The history of Ae. aegypti in Brazil is of particular interest because the country was subjected to a well-documented eradication program during 1940s-1950s. After cessation of the campaign, the mosquito quickly re-established in the early 1970s with several dengue outbreaks reported during the last 30 years. Brazil can be considered the country suffering the most from the yellow fever mosquito, given the high number of dengue, chikungunya and Zika cases reported in the country, after having once been declared “free of Ae. aegypti”. Methodology/Principal findings: We used 12 microsatellite markers to infer the genetic structure of Brazilian Ae. aegypti populations, genetic variability, genetic affinities with neighboring geographic areas, and the timing of their arrival and spread. This enabled us to reconstruct their recent history and evaluate whether the reappearance in Brazil was the result of re-invasion from neighboring non-eradicated areas or re-emergence from local refugia surviving the eradication program. Our results indicate a genetic break separating the northern and southern Brazilian Ae. aegypti populations, with further genetic differentiation within each cluster, especially in southern Brazil. Conclusions/Significance: Based on our results, re-invasions from non-eradicated regions are the most likely scenario for the reappearance of Ae. aegypti in Brazil. While populations in the northern cluster are likely to have descended from Venezuela populations as early as the 1970s, southern populations seem to have derived more recently from northern Brazilian areas. Possible entry points are also revealed within both southern and northern clusters that could inform strategies to control and monitor this important arbovirus vector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountains receive a greater proportion of precipitation than other environments, and thus make a disproportionate contribution to the world’s water supply. The Luquillo Mountains receive the highest rainfall on the island of Puerto Rico and serve as a critical source of water to surrounding communities. The area’s role as a long-term research site has generated numerous hydrological, ecological, and geological investigations that have been included in regional and global overviews that compare tropical forests to other ecosystems. Most of the forest- and watershed-wide estimates of precipitation (and evapotranspiration, as inferred by a water balance) have assumed that precipitation increases consistently with elevation. However, in this new analysis of all known current and historical rain gages in the region, we find that similar to other mountainous islands in the trade wind latitudes, leeward (western) watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains receive lower mean annual precipitation than windward (eastern) watersheds. Previous studies in the Luquillo Mountains have therefore overestimated precipitation in leeward watersheds by up to 40%. The Icacos watershed, however, despite being located at elevations 200–400 m below the tallest peaks and to the lee of the first major orographic barrier, receives some of the highest precipitation. Such lee-side enhancement has been observed in other island mountains of similar height and width, and may be caused by several mechanisms. Thus, the long-reported discrepancy of unrealistically low rates of evapotranspiration in the Icacos watershed is likely caused by previous underestimation of precipitation, perhaps by as much as 20%. Rainfall/runoff ratios in several previous studies suggested either runoff excess or runoff deficiency in Luquillo watersheds, but this analysis suggests that in fact they are similar to other tropical watersheds. Because the Luquillo Mountains often serve as a wet tropical archetype in global assessments of basic ecohydrological processes, these revised estimates are relevant to regional and global assessments of runoff efficiency, hydrologic effects of reforestation, geomorphic processes, and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]