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The ensemble method random forests has become a popular classification tool in bioinformatics and related fields. The out-of-bag error is an error estimation technique often used to evaluate the accuracy of a random forest and to select appropriate values for tuning parameters, such as the number of candidate predictors that are randomly drawn for a split, referred to as mtry. However, for binary classification problems with metric predictors it has been shown that the out-of-bag error can overestimate the true prediction error depending on the choices of random forests parameters. Based on simulated and real data this paper aims to identify settings for which this overestimation is likely. It is, moreover, questionable whether the out-of-bag error can be used in classification tasks for selecting tuning parameters like mtry, because the overestimation is seen to depend on the parameter mtry. The simulation-based and real-data based studies with metric predictor variables performed in this paper show that the overestimation is largest in balanced settings and in settings with few observations, a large number of predictor variables, small correlations between predictors and weak effects. There was hardly any impact of the overestimation on tuning parameter selection. However, although the prediction performance of random forests was not substantially affected when using the out-of-bag error for tuning parameter selection in the present studies, one cannot be sure that this applies to all future data. For settings with metric predictor variables it is therefore strongly recommended to use stratified subsampling with sampling fractions that are proportional to the class sizes for both tuning parameter selection and error estimation in random forests. This yielded less biased estimates of the true prediction error. In unbalanced settings, in which there is a strong interest in predicting observations from the smaller classes well, sampling the same number of observations from each class is a promising alternative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Evidence is growing that low-dose aspirin used as an adjuvant treatment of cancer is associated with an increased survival and a reduction in metastatic spread. We therefore extended up to August 2017 an earlier systematic search and meta-analyses of published studies of low-dose aspirin taken by patients with a diagnosis of cancer. Methods: Searches were completed in Medline and Embase to August 2017 using a pre-defined search strategy to identify reports of relevant studies. References in all the selected papers were scanned. Two reviewers independently applied pre-determined eligibility criteria and extracted data on cause-specific cancer deaths, overall mortality and the occurrence of metastatic spread. Meta-analyses were then conducted for different cancers and heterogeneity and publication bias assessed. Sensitivity analyses and attempts to reduce heterogeneity were conducted. Results: Analyses of 29 studies reported since an earlier review up to April 2015 are presented in this report, and these are then pooled with the 42 studies in our earlier publication. Overall meta-analyses of the 71 studies are presented, based on a total of over 120 thousand patients taking aspirin. Ten of the studies also give evidence on the incidence of metastatic cancer spread. There are now twenty-nine observational studies describing colorectal cancer (CRC) and post-diagnostic aspirin. Pooling the estimates of reduction by aspirin which are reported as hazard ratios (HR), gives an overall HR for aspirin and CRC mortality 0.72 (95% CI 0.64–0.80). Fourteen observational studies have reported on aspirin and breast cancer mortality and pooling those that report the association with aspirin as a hazard ratio gives HR 0.69 (0.53–0.90). Sixteen studies report on aspirin and prostate cancer mortality and a pooled estimate yields an HR of 0.87 (95% CI 0.73–1.05). Data from 12 reports relating to other cancers are also listed. Ten studies give evidence of a reduction in metastatic spread; four give a pooled HR 0.31 (95% CI 0.18, 0.54) and five studies which reported odds ratio of metastatic spread give OR 0.79 (0.66 to 0.95). Conclusion: Being almost entirely from observational studies, the evidence of benefit from aspirin is limited. There is heterogeneity between studies and the results are subject to important biases, only some of which can be identified. Nevertheless, the evidence would seem to merit wide discussion regarding whether or not it is adequate to justify the recommendation of low-dose therapeutic aspirin, and if it is, for which cancers? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genetic risk prediction is an important goal in human genetics research and precision medicine. Accurate prediction models will have great impacts on both disease prevention and early treatment strategies. Despite the identification of thousands of disease-associated genetic variants through genome wide association studies (GWAS), genetic risk prediction accuracy remains moderate for most diseases, which is largely due to the challenges in both identifying all the functionally relevant variants and accurately estimating their effect sizes in the presence of linkage disequilibrium. In this paper, we introduce AnnoPred, a principled framework that leverages diverse types of genomic and epigenomic functional annotations in genetic risk prediction for complex diseases. AnnoPred is trained using GWAS summary statistics in a Bayesian framework in which we explicitly model various functional annotations and allow for linkage disequilibrium estimated from reference genotype data. Compared with state-of-the-art risk prediction methods, AnnoPred achieves consistently improved prediction accuracy in both extensive simulations and real data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Breast cancer is an all too common disease in women, making how to effectively predict it an active research problem. A number of statistical and machine learning techniques have been employed to develop various breast cancer prediction models. Among them, support vector machines (SVM) have been shown to outperform many related techniques. To construct the SVM classifier, it is first necessary to decide the kernel function, and different kernel functions can result in different prediction performance. However, there have been very few studies focused on examining the prediction performances of SVM based on different kernel functions. Moreover, it is unknown whether SVM classifier ensembles which have been proposed to improve the performance of single classifiers can outperform single SVM classifiers in terms of breast cancer prediction. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to fully assess the prediction performance of SVM and SVM ensembles over small and large scale breast cancer datasets. The classification accuracy, ROC, F-measure, and computational times of training SVM and SVM ensembles are compared. The experimental results show that linear kernel based SVM ensembles based on the bagging method and RBF kernel based SVM ensembles with the boosting method can be the better choices for a small scale dataset, where feature selection should be performed in the data pre-processing stage. For a large scale dataset, RBF kernel based SVM ensembles based on boosting perform better than the other classifiers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identification of miRNA-disease association is a fundamental challenge in human health clinic. However, the known miRNA-disease associations are rare and experimental verification methods are expensive and time-consuming. Therefore, there is a strong incentive to develop computational methods. In this paper, we calculate the similarity score for each miRNAs pair by integrating miRNA functional similarity and miRNA family information. We use the disease phenotype similarity data to construct the disease similarity network. Then we introduce a new miRNA-disease association prediction method (NETwork Group Similarity, NetGS) to explore the global network similarity, capturing the relationship between the disease and other diseases, the similarity between the potential disease-related miRNA and other miRNAs. Finally based on the consistency of diffusion profiles we get the miRNA-disease association scores. NetGS is tested by the leave-one-out cross validation and achieves an AUC value of 0.8450, which improves the prediction accuracy. NetGS can also be applied to solve the new miRNA-disease association and obtain reliable accuracy. Moreover, we use NetGS to predict new causing miRNAs of three cancers including breast cancer, lung cancer and Hepatocellular cancer. And the top predictions have been confirmed in the online databases. The encouraging results indicate that NetGS might play an essential role for future scientific research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Many studies have reported that carbohydrate antigen 153 (CA153) in breast secretions (BS) can discriminate breast cancer (BC) patients from healthy individuals, indicating CA153 in BS as a potential index for BC. This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the actual diagnostic value of CA153 in BS. Methods: Related papers were obtained from Pubmed, Embase, Scopus, Ovid, Sciverse, the Cochrane library, Chinese Biomedical literature Database (CBM), Technology of Chongqing (VIP), Wan Fang Data, and Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). Pooled sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) of CA153 in BS for BC diagnosis were analyzed with the random effect model. SROC and the area under the curve (AUC) were applied to assess overall diagnostic efficiency. Results: This meta-analysis included five studies with a total of 329 BC patients and 381 healthy subjects. For CA153 in BS, the summary sensitivity, specificity, and DOR to diagnose BC were 0.63 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57∼0.68), 0.82 (95% CI: 0.78∼0.86), and 9.18 (95% CI: 4.22∼19.95), respectively. Furthermore, the AUC of BS CA153 in the diagnosis of BC was 0.8614. Conclusions: CA153 in BS is a valuable molecular marker in diagnosing BC and should be applied in standard clinical practices of BC screening upon confirmation of our findings in a larger prospective study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Objectives: Current studies give us inconsistent results regarding the association of neoplasms and zinc(II) serum and tissues concentrations. The results of to-date studies using meta-analysis are summarized in this paper. Methods: Web of Science (Science citation index expanded), PubMed (Medline), Embase and CENTRAL were searched. Articles were reviewed by two evaluators; quality was assessed by Newcastle-Ottawa scale; meta-analysis was performed including meta-regression and publication bias analysis. Results: Analysis was performed on 114 case control, cohort and cross-sectional studies of 22737 participants. Decreased serum zinc level was found in patients with lung (effect size = −1.04), head and neck (effect size = −1.43), breast (effect size = −0.93), liver (effect size = −2.29), stomach (effect size = −1.59), and prostate (effect size = −1.36) cancers; elevation was not proven in any tumor. More specific zinc patterns are evident at tissue level, showing increase in breast cancer tissue (effect size = 1.80) and decrease in prostatic (effect size = −3.90), liver (effect size = −8.26), lung (effect size = −3.12), and thyroid cancer (effect size = −2.84). The rest of the included tumors brought ambiguous results, both in serum and tissue zinc levels across the studies. The association between zinc level and stage or grade of tumor has not been revealed by meta-regression. Conclusion: This study provides evidence on cancer-specific tissue zinc level alteration. Although serum zinc decrease was associated with most tumors mentioned herein, further – prospective - studies are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]