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Quantifying the impact of a scholarly paper is of great significance, yet the effect of geographical distance of cited papers has not been explored. In this paper, we examine 30,596 papers published in Physical Review C, and identify the relationship between citations and geographical distances between author affiliations. Subsequently, a relative citation weight is applied to assess the impact of a scholarly paper. A higher-order weighted quantum PageRank algorithm is also developed to address the behavior of multiple step citation flow. Capturing the citation dynamics with higher-order dependencies reveals the actual impact of papers, including necessary self-citations that are sometimes excluded in prior studies. Quantum PageRank is utilized in this paper to help differentiating nodes whose PageRank values are identical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, computational Grids have proven to be a good solution for processing large-scale, computation intensive problems. However, the heterogeneity, dynamics of resources and diversity of applications requirements have always been important factors affecting their performance. In response to these challenges, this work first builds a Grid job scheduling architecture that can dynamically monitor Grid computing center resources and make corresponding scheduling decisions. Second, a Grid job model is proposed to describe the application requirements. Third, this paper studies the characteristics of commercial interconnection networks used in Grids and forecast job transmission time. Fourth, this paper proposes an application-aware job scheduling mechanism (AJSM) that includes periodic scheduling flow and a heuristic application-aware deadline constraint job scheduling algorithm. The rigorous performance evaluation results clearly demonstrate that the proposed application-aware job scheduling mechanism can successful schedule more Grid jobs than the existing algorithms. For successful scheduled jobs, our proposed AJSM method is the best algorithm for job average processing time and makespan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces an optimal sizing algorithm for a hybrid renewable energy system using smart grid load management application based on the available generation. This algorithm aims to maximize the system energy production and meet the load demand with minimum cost and highest reliability. This system is formed by photovoltaic array, wind turbines, storage batteries, and diesel generator as a backup source of energy. Demand profile shaping as one of the smart grid applications is introduced in this paper using load shifting-based load priority. Particle swarm optimization is used in this algorithm to determine the optimum size of the system components. The results obtained from this algorithm are compared with those from the iterative optimization technique to assess the adequacy of the proposed algorithm. The study in this paper is performed in some of the remote areas in Saudi Arabia and can be expanded to any similar regions around the world. Numerous valuable results are extracted from this study that could help researchers and decision makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the convergence of various broadcasting systems, the amount of content available in mobile terminals including IPTV has significantly increased. In this paper, we propose a system that enables users to schedule programs considering both section video clips and full video clips based on the user detection method with similar preference. And, since the system constituting the contents can be classified according to the program, the proposed method can store a program desired by the user, and thus create and schedule a kind of individual channel. Experimental results show that the proposed method has a higher prediction accuracy; this is accomplished by comparing existing channel recommendation methods with the program recommendation methods proposed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we introduce a novel algorithm, called Exogenous Fitness, to calculate the Fitness of subnational entities and we apply it to the states of Brazil. In the last decade, several indices were introduced to measure the competitiveness of countries by looking at the complexity of their export basket. Tacchella et al (2012) developed a non-monetary metric called Fitness. In this paper, after an overview about Brazil as a whole and the comparison with the other BRIC countries, we introduce a new methodology based on the Fitness algorithm, called Exogenous Fitness. Combining the results with the Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPp), we look at the dynamics of the Brazilian states in the Fitness-Income plane. Two regimes are distinguishable: one with high predictability and the other with low predictability, showing a deep analogy with the heterogeneous dynamics of the World countries. Furthermore, we compare the ranking of the Brazilian states according to the Exogenous Fitness with the ranking obtained through two other techniques, namely Endogenous Fitness and Economic Complexity Index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ICD-10(International Classification of Diseases 10th revision) is a classification of a disease, symptom, procedure, or injury. Diseases are often described in patients’ medical records with free texts, such as terms, phrases and paraphrases, which differ significantly from those used in ICD-10 classification. This paper presents an improved approach based on the Longest Common Subsequence (LCS) and semantic similarity for automatic Chinese diagnoses, mapping from the disease names given by clinician to the disease names in ICD-10. LCS refers to the longest string that is a subsequence of every member of a given set of strings. The proposed method of improved LCS in this paper can increase the accuracy of processing in Chinese disease mapping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Custom bus routes need to be optimized to meet the needs of a customized bus for personalized trips of different passengers. This paper introduced a customized bus routing problem in which trips for each depot are given, and each bus stop has a fixed time window within which trips should be completed. Treating a trip as a virtual stop was the first consideration in solving the school bus routing problem (SBRP). Then, the mixed load custom bus routing model was established with a time window that satisfies its requirement and the result were solved by Cplex software. Finally, a simple network diagram with three depots, four pickup stops, and five delivery stops was structured to verify the correctness of the model, and based on the actual example, the result is that all the buses ran 124.42 kilometers, the sum of kilometers was 10.35 kilometers less than before. The paths and departure times of the different busses that were provided by the model were evaluated to meet the needs of the given conditions, thus providing valuable information for actual work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries have some kind of energy-system transformation either planned or ongoing for various reasons, such as to curb carbon emissions or to compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy. One important component of these transformations is the overall reduction in energy demand. It is generally acknowledged that the domestic sector represents a large share of total energy consumption in many countries. Increased energy efficiency is one factor that reduces energy demand, but behavioral approaches (known as “sufficiency”) and their respective interventions also play important roles. In this paper, we address citizens’ heterogeneity regarding both their current behaviors and their willingness to realize their sufficiency potentials—that is, to reduce their energy consumption through behavioral change. We collaborated with three Swiss cities for this study. A survey conducted in the three cities yielded thematic sets of energy-consumption behavior that various groups of participants rated differently. Using this data, we identified four groups of participants with different patterns of both current behaviors and sufficiency potentials. The paper discusses intervention types and addresses citizens’ heterogeneity and behaviors from a city-based perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a method for classifying the ancestry of Brazilian surnames based on historical sources. The information obtained forms the basis for applying fuzzy matching and machine learning classification algorithms to more than 46 million workers in 5 categories: Iberian, Italian, Japanese, German and East European. The vast majority (96.7%) of the single surnames were identified using a fuzzy matching and the rest using a method proposed by Cavnar and Trenkle (1994). A comparison of the results of the procedures with data on foreigners in the 1920 Census and with the geographic distribution of non-Iberian surnames underscores the accuracy of the procedure. The study shows that surname ancestry is associated with significant differences in wages and schooling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies a reliable facility location problem with facility protection that aims to hedge against random facility disruptions by both strategically protecting some facilities and using backup facilities for the demands. An Integer Programming model is proposed for this problem, in which the failure probabilities of facilities are site-specific. A solution approach combining Lagrangian Relaxation and local search is proposed and is demonstrated to be both effective and efficient based on computational experiments on random numerical examples with 49, 88, 150 and 263 nodes in the network. A real case study for a 100-city network in Hunan province, China, is presented, based on which the properties of the model are discussed and some managerial insights are analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traffic state estimation from the floating car system is a challenging problem. The low penetration rate and random distribution make available floating car samples usually cover part space and time points of the road networks. To obtain a wide range of traffic state from the floating car system, many methods have been proposed to estimate the traffic state for the uncovered links. However, these methods cannot provide traffic state of the entire road networks. In this paper, the traffic state estimation is transformed to solve a missing data imputation problem, and the tensor completion framework is proposed to estimate missing traffic state. A tensor is constructed to model traffic state in which observed entries are directly derived from floating car system and unobserved traffic states are modeled as missing entries of constructed tensor. The constructed traffic state tensor can represent spatial and temporal correlations of traffic data and encode the multi-way properties of traffic state. The advantage of the proposed approach is that it can fully mine and utilize the multi-dimensional inherent correlations of traffic state. We tested the proposed approach on a well calibrated simulation network. Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed approach yield reliable traffic state estimation from very sparse floating car data, particularly when dealing with the floating car penetration rate is below 1%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Agricultural technologies developed by national and international research institutions were not benefiting the rural population of Ethiopia to the extent desired. As a response, integrated agricultural extension approaches are proposed as a key strategy to transform the smallholder farming sector. Improving Productivity and Market Success (IPMS) of Ethiopian Farmers project is one of the development projects initiated by integrating productivity enhancement technological schemes with market development model. This paper explores the impact of the project intervention in the smallholder farmers’ wellbeing. Methods: To test the research hypothesis of whether the project brought a significant change in the input use, marketed surplus, efficiency and income of farm households, we use a cross-section data from 200 smallholder farmers in Northwest Ethiopia, collected through multi-stage sampling procedure. To control for self-selection from observable characteristics of the farm households, we employ Propensity Score Matching (PSM). We finally use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) techniques to estimate technical efficiency of farm households. Results: The outcome of the research is in line with the premises that the participation of the household in the IPMS project improves purchased input use, marketed surplus, efficiency of farms and the overall gain from farming. The participant households on average employ more purchased agricultural inputs and gain higher gross margin from the production activities as compared to the non-participant households. The non-participant households on average supply less output (measured both in monetary terms and proportion of total produce) to the market as compared to their participant counterparts. Except for the technical efficiency of production in potato, project participant households are better-off in production efficiency compared with the non-participant counterparts. Conclusion: We verified the idea that Improving Productivity and Market Success (IPMS) of Ethiopian farmers’ project has contributed for the input and out market integration and/or market oriented agricultural production. Overall, we argue that these can be seen as an experimental model with a promising potential to improve the livelihood of the poor. Furthermore, we suggest that it is worthwhile to employ integrated agricultural extension programs with further targeting in the developing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constrained ordination methods aims at finding an environmental gradient along which the species abundances are maximally separated. The species response functions, which describe the expected abundance as a function of the environmental score, are according to the ecological fundamental niche theory only meaningful if they are bell-shaped. Many classical model-based ordination methods, however, use quadratic regression models without imposing the bell-shape and thus allowing for meaningless U-shaped response functions. The analysis output (e.g. a biplot) may therefore be potentially misleading and the conclusions are prone to errors. In this paper we present a log-likelihood ratio criterion with a penalisation term to enforce more bell-shaped response shapes. We report the results of a simulation study and apply our method to metagenomics data from microbial ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outcomes of bargaining over losses, the subject of this paper, have rarely been studied. But experimental studies of related situations, such as those involving bankruptcies or bequests in which the sum of the legal claims that can be made against a bank or firm or estate are greater than their values, have produced strong support for the proportionality principle. To test whether this principle would find support in other situations involving losses we designed an experimental game in which four players start out with differing initial endowments of real money. They are then informed that a certain amount of this resource has to be given back to the experimenter. How should the loss be shared among the agents? This game was run at different locations and under different treatments over a period of almost three years. We found that the proportionality principle was rarely proposed and even less frequently accepted as a solution to this problem. One of the main reasons for this result was that the two players with the smallest endowments opposed most of the proposals which asked them to contribute at least some positive amount of their own initial resource. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floating Catchment Area (FCA) methods are a popular tool to investigate accessibility to public facilities, in particular health care services. FCA approaches are attractive because, unlike other accessibility measures, they take into account the potential for congestion of facilities. This is done by 1) considering the population within the catchment area of a facility to calculate a variable that measures level of service, and then 2) aggregating the level of service by population centers subject to catchment area constraints. In this paper we discuss an effect of FCA approaches, an artifact that we term demand and level of service inflation. These artifacts are present in previous implementations of FCA methods. We argue that inflation makes interpretation of estimates of accessibility difficult, which has possible deleterious consequences for decision making. Next, we propose a simple and intuitive approach to proportionally allocate demandand and level of service in FCA calculations. The approach is based on a standardization of the impedance matrix, similar to approaches popular in the spatial statistics and econometrics literature. The result is a more intiuitive measure of accessibility that 1) provides a local version of the provider-to-population ratio; and 2) preserves the level of demand and the level of supply in a system. We illustrate the relevant issues with some examples, and then empirically by means of a case study of accessibility to family physicians in the Hamilton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), in Ontario, Canada. Results indicate that demand and supply inflation/deflation affect the interpretation of accessibility analysis using existing FCA methods, and that the proposed adjustment can lead to more intuitive results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freely-available satellite data streams and the ability to process these data on cloud-computing platforms such as Google Earth Engine have made frequent, large-scale landcover mapping at high resolution a real possibility. In this paper we apply these technologies, along with machine learning, to the mapping of peatlands–a landcover class that is critical for preserving biodiversity, helping to address climate change impacts, and providing ecosystem services, e.g., carbon storage–in the Boreal Forest Natural Region of Alberta, Canada. We outline a data-driven, scientific framework that: compiles large amounts of Earth observation data sets (radar, optical, and LiDAR); examines the extracted variables for suitability in peatland modelling; optimizes model parameterization; and finally, predicts peatland occurrence across a large boreal area (397, 958 km2) of Alberta at 10 m spatial resolution (equalling 3.9 billion pixels across Alberta). The resulting peatland occurrence model shows an accuracy of 87% and a kappa statistic of 0.57 when compared to our validation data set. Differentiating peatlands from mineral wetlands achieved an accuracy of 69% and kappa statistic of 0.37. This data-driven approach is applicable at large geopolitical scales (e.g., provincial, national) for wetland and landcover inventories that support long-term, responsible resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The clustering of time series has attracted growing research interest in recent years. The most popular clustering methods assume that the time series are only linearly dependent but this assumption usually fails in practice. To overcome this limitation, in this paper, we study clustering methods applicable to time series with a general and dependent structure. We propose a copula-based distance to measure dissimilarity among time series and consider an estimator for it, where the strong consistency of the estimator is guaranteed. Once the pairwise distance matrix for time series has been obtained, we apply a hierarchical clustering algorithm to cluster the time series and ensure its consistency. Numerical studies, including a large number of simulations and analysis of practical data, show that our method performs well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: We describe a method for analyzing the within-household network dynamics of a disease transmission. We apply it to analyze the occurrences of endemic diarrheal disease in Cameroon, Central Africa based on observational, cross-sectional data available from household health surveys. Methods: To analyze the data, we apply formalism of the dynamic SID (susceptible-infected-diseased) process that describes the disease steady-state while adjusting for the household age-structure and environment contamination, such as water contamination. The SID transmission rates are estimated via MCMC method with the help of the so-called synthetic likelihood approach. Results: The SID model is fitted to a dataset on diarrhea occurrence from 63 households in Cameroon. We show that the model allows for quantification of the effects of drinking water contamination on both transmission and recovery rates for household diarrheal disease occurrence as well as for estimation of the rate of silent (unobserved) infections. Conclusions: The new estimation method appears capable of genuinely capturing the complex dynamics of disease transmission across various human, animal and environmental compartments at the household level. Our approach is quite general and can be used in other epidemiological settings where it is desirable to fit transmission rates using cross-sectional data. Software sharing: The R-scripts for carrying out the computational analysis described in the paper are available at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines possible causes of additional spudcan settlement after preloading using both centrifuge model tests and small strain finite element analysis, in which spudcan settlement due to cavity collapse, consolidation settlement and settlement due to cyclic loading are incorporated. Back-analyses of seven jack-up rigs in the Gulf of Mexico show that even complete cavity collapse could only explain part of the measured additional settlements in the majority of the cases. Small strain finite element analyses also show that spudcan consolidation settlement is likely to account for even less of the additional settlement than cavity collapse in the sites considered. On the other hand, centrifuge model tests show that large amplitude cyclic rocking has a very significant effect on spudcan settlement, even if half of the preload has been removed. However, this effect cannot be explained by the exceedance of the yield envelope since the loading combination had not exceeded the yield envelope. One possible explanation is the stiffness and strength degradation of the soil under cyclic loading. In view of this, a conservative approach is recommended in instances where large amplitude cyclic rocking, such as that arising from storm loading, is expected shortly after preloading. The presence of lattice legs is found to reduce the spudcan settlement during large amplitude cyclic rocking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PubMed is a free search engine for biomedical literature accessed by millions of users from around the world each day. With the rapid growth of biomedical literature—about two articles are added every minute on average—finding and retrieving the most relevant papers for a given query is increasingly challenging. We present Best Match, a new relevance search algorithm for PubMed that leverages the intelligence of our users and cutting-edge machine-learning technology as an alternative to the traditional date sort order. The Best Match algorithm is trained with past user searches with dozens of relevance-ranking signals (factors), the most important being the past usage of an article, publication date, relevance score, and type of article. This new algorithm demonstrates state-of-the-art retrieval performance in benchmarking experiments as well as an improved user experience in real-world testing (over 20% increase in user click-through rate). Since its deployment in June 2017, we have observed a significant increase (60%) in PubMed searches with relevance sort order: it now assists millions of PubMed searches each week. In this work, we hope to increase the awareness and transparency of this new relevance sort option for PubMed users, enabling them to retrieve information more effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interactions between countries originate from diverse aspects such as geographic proximity, trade, socio-cultural habits, language, religions, etc. Geopolitics studies the influence of a country’s geographic space on its political power and its relationships with other countries. This work reveals the potential of Wikipedia mining for geopolitical study. Actually, Wikipedia offers solid knowledge and strong correlations among countries by linking web pages together for different types of information (e.g. economical, historical, political, and many others). The major finding of this paper is to show that meaningful results on the influence of country ties can be extracted from the hyperlinked structure of Wikipedia. We leverage a novel stochastic matrix representation of Markov chains of complex directed networks called the reduced Google matrix theory. For a selected small size set of nodes, the reduced Google matrix concentrates direct and indirect links of the million-node sized Wikipedia network into a small Perron-Frobenius matrix keeping the PageRank probabilities of the global Wikipedia network. We perform a novel sensitivity analysis that leverages this reduced Google matrix to characterize the influence of relationships between countries from the global network. We apply this analysis to two chosen sets of countries (i.e. the set of 27 European Union countries and a set of 40 top worldwide countries). We show that with our sensitivity analysis we can exhibit easily very meaningful information on geopolitics from five different Wikipedia editions (English, Arabic, Russian, French and German). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Depression is currently the second largest contributor to non-fatal disease burden globally. For that reason, economic evaluations are increasingly being conducted using data from depression prevalence estimates to analyze return on investments for services that target mental health. Psychiatric epidemiology studies have reported large cross-national differences in the prevalence of depression. These differences may impact the cost-effectiveness assessments of mental health interventions, thereby affecting decisions regarding government and multi-lateral investment in mental health services. Some portion of the differences in prevalence estimates across countries may be due to true discrepancies in depression prevalence, resulting from differential levels of risk in environmental and demographic factors. However, some portion of those differences may reflect non-invariance in the way standard tools measure depression across countries. This paper attempts to discern the extent to which measurement differences are responsible for reported differences in the prevalence of depression across countries. Methods and findings: This analysis uses data from the World Mental Health Surveys, a coordinated series of psychiatric epidemiology studies in 27 countries using multistage household probability samples to assess prevalence and correlates of mental disorders. Data in the current study include responses to the depression module of the World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) in four countries: Two high-income, western countries—the United States (n = 20, 015) and New Zealand (n = 12,992)—an upper-middle income sub-Saharan African country, South Africa (n = 4,351), and a lower-middle income sub-Saharan African country, Nigeria (n = 6,752). Latent class analysis, a type of finite mixture modeling, was used to categorize respondents into underlying categories based on the variation in their responses to questions in each of three sequential parts of the CIDI depression module: 1) The initial screening items, 2) Additional duration and severity exclusion criteria, and 3) The core symptom questions. After each of these parts, exclusion criteria expel respondents from the remainder of the diagnostic interview, rendering a diagnosis of “not depressed”. Latent class models were fit to each of the three parts in each of the four countries, and model fit was assessed using overall chi-square values and Pearson standardized residuals. Latent transition analysis was then applied in order to model participants’ progression through the CIDI depression module. Proportion of individuals falling into each latent class and probabilities of transitioning into subsequent classes were used to estimate the percentage in each country that ultimately fell into the more symptomatic class, i.e. classified as “depressed”. This latent variable design allows for a non-zero probability that individuals were incorrectly excluded from or retained in the diagnostic interview at any of the three exclusion points and therefore incorrectly diagnosed. Prevalence estimates based on the latent transition model reversed the order of depression prevalence across countries. Based on the latent transition model in this analysis, Nigeria has the highest prevalence (21.6%), followed by New Zealand (17.4%), then South Africa (15.0%), and finally the US (12.5%). That is compared to the estimates in the World Mental Health Surveys that do not allow for measurement differences, in which Nigeria had by far the lowest prevalence (3.1%), followed by South Africa (9.8%), then the United States (13.5%) and finally New Zealand (17.8%). Individuals endorsing the screening questions in Nigeria and South Africa were more likely to endorse more severe depression symptomology later in the module (i.e. they had higher transition probabilities), suggesting that individuals in the two Western countries may be more likely to endorse screening questions even when they don’t have as severe symptoms. These differences narrow the range of depression prevalence between countries 14 percentage points in the original estimates to 6 percentage points in the estimate taking account of measurement differences. Conclusions: These data suggest fewer differences in cross-national prevalence of depression than previous estimates. Given that prevalence data are used to support key decisions regarding resource-allocation for mental health services, more critical attention should be paid to differences in the functioning of measurement across contexts and the impact these differences have on prevalence estimates. Future research should include qualitative methods as well as external measures of disease severity, such as impairment, to assess how the latent classes predict these external variables, to better understand the way that standard tools estimate depression prevalence across contexts. Adjustments could then be made to prevalence estimates used in cost-effectiveness analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and fast path computation is essential for applications such as onboard navigation systems and traffic network routing. While a number of heuristic algorithms have been developed in the past few years for faster path queries, the accuracy of them are always far below satisfying. In this paper, we first develop an agglomerative graph partitioning method for generating high balanced traverse distance partitions, and we constitute a three-level graph model based on the graph partition scheme for structuring the urban road network. Then, we propose a new hierarchical path computation algorithm, which benefits from the hierarchical graph model and utilizes a region pruning strategy to significantly reduce the search space without compromising the accuracy. Finally, we present a detailed experimental evaluation on the real urban road network of New York City, and the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach to generate optimal fast paths and to facilitate real-time routing applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Delay Tolerant Network (DTN) multi-copy routing protocols are privileged to create and transmit multiple copies of each message that causes congestion and some messages are dropped. This process is known as reactive drop because messages were dropped re-actively to overcome buffer overflows. The existing reactive buffer management policies apply a single metric to drop source, relay and destine messages. Hereby, selection to drop a message is dubious because each message as source, relay or destine may have consumed dissimilar magnitude of network resources. Similarly, DTN has included time to live (ttl) parameter which defines lifetime of message. Hence, when ttl expires then message is automatically destroyed from relay nodes. However, time-to-live (ttl) is not applicable on messages reached at their destinations. Moreover, nodes keep replicating messages till ttl expires even-though large number of messages has already been dispersed. In this paper, we have proposed Priority Queue Based Reactive Buffer Management Policy (PQB-R) for DTN under City Based Environments. The PQB-R classifies buffered messages into source, relay and destine queues. Moreover, separate drop metric has been applied on individual queue. The experiment results prove that proposed PQB-R has reduced number of messages transmissions, message drop and increases delivery ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Broken water pumps continue to impede efforts to deliver clean and economically-viable water to the global poor. The literature has demonstrated that customers’ health benefits and willingness to pay for clean water are best realized when clean water infrastructure performs extremely well (>99% uptime). In this paper, we used sensor data from 42 Afridev-brand handpumps observed for 14 months in western Kenya to demonstrate how sensors and supervised ensemble machine learning could be used to increase total fleet uptime from a best-practices baseline of about 70% to >99%. We accomplish this increase in uptime by forecasting pump failures and identifying existing failures very quickly. Comparing the costs of operating the pump per functional year over a lifetime of 10 years, we estimate that implementing this algorithm would save 7% on the levelized cost of water relative to a sensor-less scheduled maintenance program. Combined with a rigorous system for dispatching maintenance personnel, implementing this algorithm in a real-world program could significantly improve health outcomes and customers’ willingness to pay for water services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The social functions of urbanized areas are highly dependent on and supported by the convenient access to public transportation systems, particularly for the less privileged populations who have restrained auto ownership. To accurately evaluate the public transit accessibility, it is critical to capture the spatiotemporal variation of transit services. This can be achieved by measuring the shortest paths or minimum travel time between origin-destination (OD) pairs at each time-of-day (e.g. every minute). In recent years, General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) data has been gaining popularity for between-station travel time estimation due to its interoperability in spatiotemporal analytics. Many software packages, such as ArcGIS, have developed toolbox to enable the travel time estimation with GTFS. They perform reasonably well in calculating travel time between OD pairs for a specific time-of-day (e.g. 8:00 AM), yet can become computational inefficient and unpractical with the increase of data dimensions (e.g. all times-of-day and large network). In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm that is computationally elegant and mathematically efficient to address this issue. An open-source toolbox written in C++ is developed to implement the algorithm. We implemented the algorithm on City of St. George’s transit network to showcase the accessibility analysis enabled by the toolbox. The experimental evidence shows significant reduction on computational time. The proposed algorithm and toolbox presented is easily transferable to other transit networks to allow transit agencies and researchers perform high resolution transit performance analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Circuity, defined as the ratio of the shortest network distance to the Euclidean distance between one origin–destination (O-D) pair, can be adopted as a helpful evaluation method of indirect degrees of train paths. In this paper, the maximum circuity of the paths of operated trains is set to be the threshold value of the circuity of high-speed train paths. For the shortest paths of any node pairs, if their circuity is not higher than the threshold value, the paths can be regarded as the reasonable paths. With the consideration of a certain relative or absolute error, we cluster the reasonable paths on the basis of their inclusion relationship and the center path of each class represents a passenger transit corridor. We take the high-speed rail (HSR) network in China at the end of 2014 as an example, and obtain 51 passenger transit corridors, which are alternative sets of train paths. Furthermore, we analyze the circuity distribution of paths of all node pairs in the network. We find that the high circuity of train paths can be decreased with the construction of a high-speed railway line, which indicates that the structure of the HSR network in China tends to be more complete and the HSR network can make the Chinese railway network more efficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we address the clinic location selection problem for a fully integrated Sexual Health Service across Hampshire. The service provides outpatient services for Genito-Urinary Medicine, contraceptive and reproductive health, sexual health promotion and a sexual assault referral centre. We aim to assist the planning of sexual health service provision in Hampshire by conducting a location analysis using both current and predicted patient need. We identify the number of clinic locations required and their optimal geographic location that minimise patient travel time. To maximise the chances of uptake of results we validate the developed simple algorithm with an exact method as well as three well-known, but complex meta-heuristics. The analysis was conducted using car travel and public transport times. Two scenarios were considered: current clinic locations only; and anywhere within Hampshire. The results show that the clinic locations could be reduced from 28 to 20 and still keep 90% of all patient journeys by public transport (e.g. by bus or train) to a clinic within 30 minutes. The number of clinics could be further reduced to 8 if the travel time is based on car travel times within 15 minutes. Results from our simple solution method compared favourably to the exact solution as well as the complex meta-heuristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Overweight and obesity are highly prevalent in the population of the United States, affecting roughly 2/3 of Americans. These diseases, along with their associated conditions, are a major burden on the healthcare industry in terms of both dollars spent and effort expended. Volitional weight loss is attempted by many, but weight regain is common. The ability to predict which patients will lose weight and successfully maintain the loss versus those prone to regain weight would help ease this burden by allowing clinicians the ability to skip treatments likely to be ineffective. In this paper we introduce a new windowed approach to the persistent homology signal processing algorithm that, when paired with a modified, semimetric version of the Hausdorff distance, can differentiate the two groups where other commonly used methods fail. The novel approach is tested on accelerometer data gathered from an ongoing study at the University of Michigan. While most standard approaches to signal processing show no difference between the two groups, windowed persistent homology and the modified Hausdorff semimetric show a clear separation. This has significant implications for clinical decision making and patient care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a sustainable transportation mode, high-speed railway (HSR) has become an efficient way to meet the huge travel demand. However, due to the high acquisition and maintenance cost, it is impossible to build enough infrastructure and purchase enough train-sets. Great efforts are required to improve the transport capability of HSR. The utilization efficiency of train-sets (carrying tools of HSR) is one of the most important factors of the transport capacity of HSR. In order to enhance the utilization efficiency of the train-sets, this paper proposed a train-set circulation optimization model to minimize the total connection time. An innovative two-stage approach which contains segments generation and segments combination was designed to solve this model. In order to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach, an experiment was carried out in the Beijing-Tianjin passenger dedicated line, to fulfill a 174 trips train diagram. The model results showed that compared with the traditional Ant Colony Algorithm (ACA), the utilization efficiency of train-sets can be increased from 43.4% (ACA) to 46.9% (Two-Stage), and 1 train-set can be saved up to fulfill the same transportation tasks. The approach proposed in the study is faster and more stable than the traditional ones, by using which, the HSR staff can draw up the train-sets circulation plan more quickly and the utilization efficiency of the HSR system is also improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In peer-to-peer networks, application relays have been commonly used to provide various networking services. The service performance often improves significantly if a relay is selected appropriately based on its network location. In this paper, we studied the location-aware relay discovery and selection problem for large-scale P2P streaming networks. In these large-scale and dynamic overlays, it incurs significant communication and computation cost to discover a sufficiently large relay candidate set and further to select one relay with good performance. The network location can be measured directly or indirectly with the tradeoffs between timeliness, overhead and accuracy. Based on a measurement study and the associated error analysis, we demonstrate that indirect measurements, such as King and Internet Coordinate Systems (ICS), can only achieve a coarse estimation of peers’ network location and those methods based on pure indirect measurements cannot lead to a good relay selection. We also demonstrate that there exists significant error amplification of the commonly used “best-out-of-K” selection methodology using three RTT data sets publicly available. We propose a two-phase approach to achieve efficient relay discovery and accurate relay selection. Indirect measurements are used to narrow down a small number of high-quality relay candidates and the final relay selection is refined based on direct probing. This two-phase approach enjoys an efficient implementation using the Distributed-Hash-Table (DHT). When the DHT is constructed, the node keys carry the location information and they are generated scalably using indirect measurements, such as the ICS coordinates. The relay discovery is achieved efficiently utilizing the DHT-based search. We evaluated various aspects of this DHT-based approach, including the DHT indexing procedure, key generation under peer churn and message costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although frequent fluctuations in domestic hog prices seriously affect the stability and robustness of the hog supply chain, hog futures (an effective hedging instrument) have not been listed in China. To better understand hog futures market hedging, it is important to study the steady state of intersubjective bidding. This paper uses evolutionary game theory to construct a game model between hedgers and speculators in the hog futures market, and replicator dynamic equations are then used to obtain the steady state between the two trading entities. The results show that the steady state is one in which hedgers adopt a “buy” strategy and speculators adopt a “do not speculate” strategy, but this type of extreme steady state is not easily realized. Thus, to explore the rational proportion of hedgers and speculators in the evolutionary stabilization strategy, bidding processes were simulated using weekly average hog prices from 2006 to 2015, such that the conditions under which hedgers and speculators achieve a steady state could be analyzed. This task was performed to achieve the stability critical point, and we show that only when the value of λ is satisfied and the conditions of hog futures price changes and futures price are satisfied can hedgers and speculators achieve a rational proportion and a stable hog futures market. This market can thus provide a valuable reference for the development of the Chinese hog futures market and the formulation and guidance of relevant departmental policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, Pulse Coupled Oscillator (PCO)-based travelling waves have attracted substantial attention by researchers in wireless sensor network (WSN) synchronization. Because WSNs are generally artificial occurrences that mimic natural phenomena, the PCO utilizes firefly synchronization of attracting mating partners for modelling the WSN. However, given that sensor nodes are unable to receive messages while transmitting data packets (due to deafness), the PCO model may not be efficient for sensor network modelling. To overcome this limitation, this paper proposed a new scheme called the Travelling Wave Pulse Coupled Oscillator (TWPCO). For this, the study used a self-organizing scheme for energy-efficient WSNs that adopted travelling wave biologically inspired network systems based on phase locking of the PCO model to counteract deafness. From the simulation, it was found that the proposed TWPCO scheme attained a steady state after a number of cycles. It also showed superior performance compared to other mechanisms, with a reduction in the total energy consumption of 25%. The results showed that the performance improved by 13% in terms of data gathering. Based on the results, the proposed scheme avoids the deafness that occurs in the transmit state in WSNs and increases the data collection throughout the transmission states in WSNs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of data mining techniques, outlier detection aims to discover outlying observations that deviate substantially from the reminder of the data. Recently, the Local Outlier Factor (LOF) algorithm has been successfully applied to outlier detection. However, due to the computational complexity of the LOF algorithm, its application to large data with high dimension has been limited. The aim of this paper is to propose grid-based algorithm that reduces the computation time required by the LOF algorithm to determine the k-nearest neighbors. The algorithm divides the data spaces in to a smaller number of regions, called as a “grid”, and calculates the LOF value of each grid. To examine the effectiveness of the proposed method, several experiments incorporating different parameters were conducted. The proposed method demonstrated a significant computation time reduction with predictable and acceptable trade-off errors. Then, the proposed methodology was successfully applied to real database transaction logs of Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute. As a result, we show that for a very large dataset, the grid-LOF can be considered as an acceptable approximation for the original LOF. Moreover, it can also be effectively used for real-time outlier detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cooperation theories assume that interacting individuals can change their strategies under different expected payoffs, depending on their social status or social situations. When looking at sex differences in cooperation, the existing studies have found that the genders cooperate at similar frequencies. However, the majority of the data originate within Western human societies. In this paper, we explore whether there are gender differences in cooperation in China. An Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma game with a punishment option was used to gather data about Southwest Chinese subjects in a culture in which men have a hierarchical advantage over women. Results indicate that men invested into partners significantly more than women did (34% ♂ vs. 24% ♀) while women, in turn, were more likely to defect (65% ♀ vs. 50% ♂). In this region, women have customarily held less economic power and they are used to obtain a payoff typically lower than men. We suggest that the women’s willingness to invest in cooperation has decreased throughout evolutionary time, providing us with an illustration of a culturally-driven shift towards a disparity in gender cooperation interests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large-scale multiple surveillance system for infectious disease outbreaks has been in operation in England and Wales since the early 1990s. Changes to the statistical algorithm at the heart of the system were proposed and the purpose of this paper is to compare two new algorithms with the original algorithm. Test data to evaluate performance are created from weekly counts of the number of cases of each of more than 2000 diseases over a twenty-year period. The time series of each disease is separated into one series giving the baseline (background) disease incidence and a second series giving disease outbreaks. One series is shifted forward by twelve months and the two are then recombined, giving a realistic series in which it is known where outbreaks have been added. The metrics used to evaluate performance include a scoring rule that appropriately balances sensitivity against specificity and is sensitive to variation in probabilities near 1. In the context of disease surveillance, a scoring rule can be adapted to reflect the size of outbreaks and this was done. Results indicate that the two new algorithms are comparable to each other and better than the algorithm they were designed to replace. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conflict analysis has been used as an important tool in economic, business, governmental and political dispute, games, management negotiations, military operations and etc. There are many mathematical formal models have been proposed to handle conflict situations and one of the most popular is rough set theory. With the ability to handle vagueness from the conflict data set, rough set theory has been successfully used. However, computational time is still an issue when determining the certainty, coverage, and strength of conflict situations. In this paper, we present an alternative approach to handle conflict situations, based on some ideas using soft set theory. The novelty of the proposed approach is that, unlike in rough set theory that uses decision rules, it is based on the concept of co-occurrence of parameters in soft set theory. We illustrate the proposed approach by means of a tutorial example of voting analysis in conflict situations. Furthermore, we elaborate the proposed approach on real world dataset of political conflict in Indonesian Parliament. We show that, the proposed approach achieves lower computational time as compared to rough set theory of up to 3.9%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006–2010) are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698) is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN) algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Laboratory experiments offer an opportunity to isolate human behaviors with a level of precision that is often difficult to obtain using other (survey-based) methods. Yet, experimental tasks are often stripped of any social context, implying that inferences may not directly map to real world contexts. We randomly allocate 632 individuals (grouped randomly into 316 dyads) from small villages in Sierra Leone to four versions of the ultimatum game. In addition to the classic ultimatum game, where both the sender and receiver are anonymous, we reveal the identity of the sender, the receiver or both. This design allows us to explore how fairness behavior is affected by social context in a natural setting where players are drawn from populations that are well-acquainted. We find that average offers increase when the receiver’s identity is revealed, suggesting that anonymous ultimatum games underestimate expected fair offers. This study suggest that researchers wishing to relate laboratory behavior to contexts in which the participants are well-acquainted should consider revealing the identities of the players during game play. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The World Health Organization recommends "same-day" initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV patients who are eligible and ready. Identifying efficient, safe, and feasible procedures for determining same-day eligibility and readiness is now a priority. The Simplified Algorithm for Treatment Eligibility (SLATE) study evaluated a clinical algorithm that allows healthcare workers to determine eligibility for same-day treatment and to initiate ART at the patient's first clinic visit.Methods and Findings: SLATE was an individually randomized trial at three outpatient clinics in urban settlements in Johannesburg, South Africa and three hospital clinics in western Kenya. Adult, nonpregnant, HIV-positive, ambulatory patients presenting for any HIV care, including HIV testing, but not yet on ART were enrolled and randomized to the SLATE algorithm arm or standard care. The SLATE algorithm used four screening tools-a symptom self-report, medical history questionnaire, physical examination, and readiness assessment-to ascertain eligibility for same-day initiation or refer for further care. Follow-up was by record review, and analysis was conducted by country. We report primary outcomes of 1) ART initiation ≤28 days and 2) initiation ≤28 days and retention in care ≤8 months of enrollment. From March 7, 2017 to April 17, 2018, we enrolled 600 patients (median [IQR] age 34 [29-40] and CD4 count 286 [128-490]; 63% female) in South Africa and 477 patients in Kenya (median [IQR] age 35 [29-43] and CD4 count 283 [117-541]; 58% female). In the intervention arm, 78% of patients initiated ≤28 days in South Africa, compared to 68% in the standard arm (risk difference [RD] [95% confidence interval (CI)] 10% [3%-17%]); in Kenya, 94% of intervention-arm patients initiated ≤28 days compared to 89% in the standard arm (6% [0.5%-11%]). By 8 months in South Africa, 161/298 (54%) intervention-arm patients had initiated and were retained, compared to 146/302 (48%) in the standard arm (6% [(2% to 14%]). By 8 months in Kenya, the corresponding retention outcomes were identical in both arms (137/240 [57%] of intervention-arm patients and 136/237 [57%] of standard-arm patients). Limitations of the trial included limited geographic representativeness, exclusion of patients too ill to participate, missing viral load data, greater study fidelity to the algorithm than might be achieved in standard care, and secular changes in standard care over the course of the study.Conclusions: In South Africa, the SLATE algorithm increased uptake of ART within 28 days by 10% and showed a numerical increase (6%) in retention at 8 months. In Kenya, the algorithm increased uptake of ART within 28 days by 6% but found no difference in retention at 8 months. Eight-month retention was poor in both arms and both countries. These results suggest that a simple structured algorithm for same-day treatment initiation procedures is feasible and can increase and accelerate ART uptake but that early retention on treatment remains problematic.Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02891135, registered September 1, 2016. First participant enrolled March 6, 2017 in South Africa and July 13, 2017 in Kenya. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In any sport the selection of players for a team is fundamental for its subsequent performance. Many factors condition the selection process from the characteristics of the sport discipline to financial limitations, including a long list of restrictions associated with the environment of the competitions in which the team takes part. All of this makes the process of selecting a roster of players very complex, as it is affected by multiple variables and in many cases marked by a great deal of subjectivity. The purpose of this article was to objectively select the players for a basketball team using an evolutionary algorithm, the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) that uses stochastic search methods based on the imitation of natural biological evolution. The sample was composed of the players from the teams competing in the top Spanish basketball league, the Association of Basketball Clubs (ACB). To assess the quality of the solutions obtained, the results were compared with the teams in the ACB playing in the same competition as the players used in the study. The results make it possible to obtain different solutions for composing teams rendering financial resources profitable and taking into account the restrictions of the competition and of each sport management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study in-group favouritism and out-group discrimination in a multiplayer dictator game in a naturally occuring group setting. An allocator divides a large sum of money among three groups of around 20 recipients each and also to themselves. The groups are supporters of two rival political movements in Thailand and politically neutral subjects. The non-rival out-group acts as a reference point and allows us to measure in-group favouritism and out-group discrimination. A treatment with artificial groups serves as a control. We find both in-group favouritism and out-group discrimination among the naturally occurring groups. In artificial groups, favouritism is observed, but not discrimination. Our results suggest that the two behaviours are not driven by the same motive, and only when groups are in conflict that out-group discrimination is likely to occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coffee is a crop of significant importance for Brazilian agrobusiness. There is evidence that both the geographic distribution of coffee production, and the varieties of coffee produced, have changed throughout Brazil over the course of time. Furthermore, it appears that these developments are associated with structural changes resulting from reductions in government intervention and its effects on prices in the coffee market, which has established a new dynamic of coffee production in the country. In this context, this study’s objective is to analyze the dynamics of coffee production in Brazil, to identify the Brazilian micro-regions specializing in coffee activities, and to track how the spatial distribution of these micro-regions has varied over time. In so doing, the study aims to identify defining economic characteristics of primary coffee-producing regions. Drawing primarily on data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, the study proceeds by applying Pearson correlation, Granger causality test, location quotient, principal components, and clustering analyses to explore how, during the 1984–2015 period, significant changes occurred in the distribution of regions specializing in coffee production. States such as Paraná and São Paulo, historically important coffee producers, declined in importance, leaving only a few micro-regions in these states specialized in coffee production. During the 2014/15 biennium, 80% of the coffee-specialized micro-regions were concentrated in the states of Minas Gerais, Bahia, Rondônia, and Espírito Santo. Minas Gerais and Bahia primarily produced arabica coffee, while Rondônia specialized in conilon (robusta) coffee. Overall, coffee produced in Brazil improved in quality and value-added over this period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on the challenging scientific problems faced by humanity. Topics discussed include information on the efforts to empower Africans to join the global neuroscience community; discussions on the BRAIN initiative in the U.S. and the Human Brain Project in Europe; and the information on the limiting factor for computational neuroscience development in Africa.

Objectives: Value of information (VOI) analysis provides information on opportunity cost of a decision in healthcare by estimating the cost of reducing parametric uncertainty and quantifying the value of generating additional evidence. This study is an application of the VOI methodology to the problem of choosing between home telemonitoring and nurse telephone support over usual care in chronic heart failure management in the Netherlands. Methods: The expected value of perfect information (EVPI) and the expected value of partially perfect information (EVPPI) analyses were based on an informal threshold of €20K per quality-adjusted life-year. These VOI-analyses were applied to a probabilistic Markov model comparing the 20-year costs and effects in three interventions. The EVPPI explored the value of decision uncertainty caused by the following group of parameters: treatment-specific transition probabilities between New York Heart Association (NYHA) defined disease states, utilities associated with the disease states, number of hospitalizations and ER visits, health state specific costs, and the distribution of patients per NYHA group. We performed the analysis for two population sizes in the Netherlands—patients in all NYHA classes of severity, and patients in NYHA IV class only. Results: The population EVPI for an effective population of 2,841,567 CHF patients in All NYHA classes of severity over the next 20 years is more than €4.5B, implying that further research is highly cost-effective. In the NYHA IV only analysis, for the effective population of 208,003 patients over next 20 years, the population EVPI at the same informal threshold is approx. €590M. The EVPPI analysis showed that the only relevant group of parameters that contribute to the overall decision uncertainty are transition probabilities, in both All NYHA and NYHA IV analyses. Conclusions: Results of our VOI exercise show that the cost of uncertainty regarding the decision on reimbursement of telehealth interventions for chronic heart failure patients is high in the Netherlands, and that future research is needed, mainly on the transition probabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Relevance: Popularity-based approaches are widely adopted in music recommendation systems, both in industry and research. These approaches recommend to the target user what is currently popular among all users of the system. However, as the popularity distribution of music items typically is a long-tail distribution, popularity-based approaches to music recommendation fall short in satisfying listeners that have specialized music preferences far away from the global music mainstream. Addressing this gap, the contribution of this article is three-fold. Definition of mainstreaminess measures: First, we provide several quantitative measures describing the proximity of a user’s music preference to the music mainstream. Assuming that there is a difference between the global music mainstream and a country-specific one, we define the measures at two levels: relating a listener’s music preferences to the global music preferences of all users, or relating them to music preferences of the user’s country. To quantify such music preferences, we define a music item’s popularity in terms of artist playcounts (APC) and artist listener counts (ALC). Moreover, we adopt a distribution-based and a rank-based approach as means to decrease bias towards the head of the long-tail distribution. This eventually results in a framework of 6 measures to quantify music mainstream. Differences between countries with respect to music mainstream: Second, we perform in-depth quantitative and qualitative studies of music mainstream in that we (i) analyze differences between countries in terms of their level of mainstreaminess, (ii) uncover both positive and negative outliers (substantially higher and lower country-specific popularity, respectively, compared to the global mainstream), analyzing these with a mixed-methods approach, and (iii) investigate differences between countries in terms of listening preferences related to popular music artists. We conduct our studies and experiments using the standardized LFM-1b dataset, from which we analyze about 800,000,000 listening events shared by about 53,000 users (from 47 countries) of the music streaming platform Last.fm. We show that there are substantial country-specific differences in listeners’ music consumption behavior with respect to the most popular artists listened to. Rating prediction experiments: Third, we demonstrate the applicability of our study results to improve music recommendation systems. To this end, we conduct rating prediction experiments in which we tailor recommendations to a user’s level of preference for the music mainstream using the proposed 6 mainstreaminess measures: defined by a distribution-based or rank-based approach, defined on a global level or on a country level (for the user’s country), and for APC or ALC. Our approach roughly equals a hybrid recommendation approach in which a demographic filtering strategy is implemented before collaborative filtering is performed. Results suggest that, in terms of rating prediction accuracy, each of the presented mainstreaminess definitions has its merits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We describe CD4 count recovery among HIV positive individuals who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) with and without severe immune suppression using complete laboratory data from South Africa’s national HIV treatment programme between 2010 and 2014 and discuss implications for CD4 count monitoring. Methods: Retrospective analysis of routinely collected laboratory data from South Africa’s National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS). A probabilistic record linkage algorithm was used to create a cohort of HIV positive individuals who initiated ART between 2010 and 2014 based on timing of CD4 count and viral load measurements. A CD4 count < 50 copies/μl at ART initiation was considered severe immunosuppression. A multivariable piecewise mixed-effects linear regression model adjusting for age, gender, year of starting ART, viral suppression in follow up and province was used to predict CD4 counts during follow up. Results: 1,070,900 individuals had evidence of starting ART during 2010–2014 and met the criteria for inclusion in the cohort -46.6% starting ART with CD4 < 200 cells/μl and 10.1% with CD4 < 50 cells/ μl. For individuals with CD4 counts < 200 cells/μl, predicted CD4 counts > 200 cells/μl, >350 cells/μl and >500 cells/μl corresponded with mean follow up durations of 1.5 years (standard deviation [s.d] 1.1), 1.9years (s.d 1.2) and 2.1 years (s.d 1.3 years). For those with CD4 counts < 50 cells/μl, predicted CD4 count above these threshold corresponded with mean follow up durations of 2.5 years (s.d 0.9 years), 4.4 years (s.d 0.4 years) and 5.0 years (s.d 0.1years) for recovery to the same thresholds. CD4 count recovery varied mostly with duration on ART, CD4 count at the start of ART and gender. Conclusion: For individuals starting with ART with severe immunosuppression, CD4 recovery to 200cells/μl did not occur or took longer than 12 month for significant proportions. CD4 monitoring and interventions recommended for advanced HIV disease should continue until full recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]