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Ensembles are a well established machine learning paradigm, leading to accurate and robust models, predominantly applied to predictive modeling tasks. Ensemble models comprise a finite set of diverse predictive models whose combined output is expected to yield an improved predictive performance as compared to an individual model. In this paper, we propose a new method for learning ensembles of process-based models of dynamic systems. The process-based modeling paradigm employs domain-specific knowledge to automatically learn models of dynamic systems from time-series observational data. Previous work has shown that ensembles based on sampling observational data (i.e., bagging and boosting), significantly improve predictive performance of process-based models. However, this improvement comes at the cost of a substantial increase of the computational time needed for learning. To address this problem, the paper proposes a method that aims at efficiently learning ensembles of process-based models, while maintaining their accurate long-term predictive performance. This is achieved by constructing ensembles with sampling domain-specific knowledge instead of sampling data. We apply the proposed method to and evaluate its performance on a set of problems of automated predictive modeling in three lake ecosystems using a library of process-based knowledge for modeling population dynamics. The experimental results identify the optimal design decisions regarding the learning algorithm. The results also show that the proposed ensembles yield significantly more accurate predictions of population dynamics as compared to individual process-based models. Finally, while their predictive performance is comparable to the one of ensembles obtained with the state-of-the-art methods of bagging and boosting, they are substantially more efficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the convergence of various broadcasting systems, the amount of content available in mobile terminals including IPTV has significantly increased. In this paper, we propose a system that enables users to schedule programs considering both section video clips and full video clips based on the user detection method with similar preference. And, since the system constituting the contents can be classified according to the program, the proposed method can store a program desired by the user, and thus create and schedule a kind of individual channel. Experimental results show that the proposed method has a higher prediction accuracy; this is accomplished by comparing existing channel recommendation methods with the program recommendation methods proposed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Music genre classification is a challenging research concept, for which open questions remain regarding classification approach, music piece representation, distances between/within genres, and so on. In this paper an investigation on the classification of generated music pieces is performed, based on the idea that grouping close related known pieces in different sets –or clusters– and then generating in an automatic way a new song which is somehow “inspired” in each set, the new song would be more likely to be classified as belonging to the set which inspired it, based on the same distance used to separate the clusters. Different music pieces representations and distances among pieces are used; obtained results are promising, and indicate the appropriateness of the used approach even in a such a subjective area as music genre classification is. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a face recognition algorithm based on a combination of vector quantization (VQ) and Markov stationary features (MSF). The VQ algorithm has been shown to be an effective method for generating features; it extracts a codevector histogram as a facial feature representation for face recognition. Still, the VQ histogram features are unable to convey spatial structural information, which to some extent limits their usefulness in discrimination. To alleviate this limitation of VQ histograms, we utilize Markov stationary features (MSF) to extend the VQ histogram-based features so as to add spatial structural information. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm by achieving recognition results superior to those of several state-of-the-art methods on publicly available face databases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Broken water pumps continue to impede efforts to deliver clean and economically-viable water to the global poor. The literature has demonstrated that customers’ health benefits and willingness to pay for clean water are best realized when clean water infrastructure performs extremely well (>99% uptime). In this paper, we used sensor data from 42 Afridev-brand handpumps observed for 14 months in western Kenya to demonstrate how sensors and supervised ensemble machine learning could be used to increase total fleet uptime from a best-practices baseline of about 70% to >99%. We accomplish this increase in uptime by forecasting pump failures and identifying existing failures very quickly. Comparing the costs of operating the pump per functional year over a lifetime of 10 years, we estimate that implementing this algorithm would save 7% on the levelized cost of water relative to a sensor-less scheduled maintenance program. Combined with a rigorous system for dispatching maintenance personnel, implementing this algorithm in a real-world program could significantly improve health outcomes and customers’ willingness to pay for water services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of Lithium-ion batteries is closely related to the capacity degeneration trajectories. Due to the self-charging and the capacity regeneration, the trajectories have the property of multimodality. Traditional prediction models such as the support vector machines (SVM) or the Gaussian Process regression (GPR) cannot accurately characterize this multimodality. This paper proposes a novel RUL prediction method based on the Gaussian Process Mixture (GPM). It can process multimodality by fitting different segments of trajectories with different GPR models separately, such that the tiny differences among these segments can be revealed. The method is demonstrated to be effective for prediction by the excellent predictive result of the experiments on the two commercial and chargeable Type 1850 Lithium-ion batteries, provided by NASA. The performance comparison among the models illustrates that the GPM is more accurate than the SVM and the GPR. In addition, GPM can yield the predictive confidence interval, which makes the prediction more reliable than that of traditional models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main purpose of this study is to propose, then analyze, and later test a spectral gradient algorithm for solving a convex minimization problem. The considered problem covers the matrix ℓ2,1-norm regularized least squares which is widely used in multi-task learning for capturing the joint feature among each task. To solve the problem, we firstly minimize a quadratic approximated model of the objective function to derive a search direction at current iteration. We show that this direction descends automatically and reduces to the original spectral gradient direction if the regularized term is removed. Secondly, we incorporate a nonmonotone line search along this direction to improve the algorithm’s numerical performance. Furthermore, we show that the proposed algorithm converges to a critical point under some mild conditions. The attractive feature of the proposed algorithm is that it is easily performable and only requires the gradient of the smooth function and the objective function’s values at each and every step. Finally, we operate some experiments on synthetic data, which verifies that the proposed algorithm works quite well and performs better than the compared ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the growing interest in prediction-based word embedding learning methods, it remains unclear as to how the vector spaces learnt by the prediction-based methods differ from that of the counting-based methods, or whether one can be transformed into the other. To study the relationship between counting-based and prediction-based embeddings, we propose a method for learning a linear transformation between two given sets of word embeddings. Our proposal contributes to the word embedding learning research in three ways: (a) we propose an efficient method to learn a linear transformation between two sets of word embeddings, (b) using the transformation learnt in (a), we empirically show that it is possible to predict distributed word embeddings for novel unseen words, and (c) empirically it is possible to linearly transform counting-based embeddings to prediction-based embeddings, for frequent words, different POS categories, and varying degrees of ambiguities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time-evolving random forest classifier that leverages unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Missing data is a common problem in many research fields and is a challenge that always needs careful considerations. One approach is to impute the missing values, i.e., replace missing values with estimates. When imputation is applied, it is typically applied to all records with missing values indiscriminately. We note that the effects of imputation can be strongly dependent on what is missing. To help make decisions about which records should be imputed, we propose to use a machine learning approach to estimate the imputation error for each case with missing data. The method is thought to be a practical approach to help users using imputation after the informed choice to impute the missing data has been made. To do this all patterns of missing values are simulated in all complete cases, enabling calculation of the “true error” in each of these new cases. The error is then estimated for each case with missing values by weighing the “true errors” by similarity. The method can also be used to test the performance of different imputation methods. A universal numerical threshold of acceptable error cannot be set since this will differ according to the data, research question, and analysis method. The effect of threshold can be estimated using the complete cases. The user can set an a priori relevant threshold for what is acceptable or use cross validation with the final analysis to choose the threshold. The choice can be presented along with argumentation for the choice rather than holding to conventions that might not be warranted in the specific dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]