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Background: Paper mulberry (Broussonetia papyrifera (L.) L'Hér. ex Vent) is a dioecious tree native to East Asia and mainland Southeast-Asia, introduced prehistorically to Polynesia as a source of bark fiber by Austronesian-speaking voyagers. In Oceania, trees are coppiced and harvested for production of bark-cloth, so flowering is generally unknown. A survey of botanical records of paper mulberry revealed a distributional disjunction: the tree is apparently absent in Borneo and the Philippines. A subsequent study of chloroplast haplotypes linked paper mulberry of Remote Oceania directly to a population in southern Taiwan, distinct from known populations in mainland Southeast-Asia. Methodology: We describe the optimization and use of a DNA marker designed to identify sex in paper mulberry. We used this marker to determine the sex distribution in selected localities across Asia, Near and Remote Oceania. We also characterized all samples using the ribosomal internal transcribed spacer sequence (ITS) in order to relate results to a previous survey of ITS diversity. Results: In Near and Remote Oceania, contemporary paper mulberry plants are all female with the exception of Hawaii, where plants of both sexes are found. In its natural range in Asia, male and female plants are found, as expected. Male plants in Hawaii display an East Asian ITS genotype, consistent with modern introduction, while females in Remote Oceania share a distinctive variant. Conclusions: Most paper mulberry plants now present in the Pacific appear to be descended from female clones introduced prehistorically. In Hawaii, the presence of male and female plants is thought to reflect a dual origin, one a prehistoric female introduction and the other a modern male introduction by Japanese/Chinese immigrants. If only female clones were dispersed from a source-region in Taiwan, this may explain the absence of botanical records and breeding populations in the Philippines and Borneo, and Remote Oceania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paper mulberry, Broussonetia papyrifera (L.) L’Hér. ex Vent. (Moraceae), a dioecious species, was transported by humans from Taiwan to the islands of Remote Oceania. Its introduction and cultivation in Remote Oceania was intentional due to its cultural importance as a fiber source for barkcloth textiles. The aim of this study was to explore the genetic diversity and structure of paper mulberry populations within Remote Oceania in order to infer dispersal patterns that may reflect past human interaction among island groups. We present the integrated analysis of 380 samples (313 contemporary and 67 herbarium specimens) collected in Near and Remote Oceania. Genetic characterization was based on a set of ten microsatellites developed for B. papyrifera and complemented with the analysis of the ribosomal internal transcribed spacer ITS-1 sequence, a sex marker and the chloroplast ndhF–rpl32 intergenic spacer. Microsatellite data identify a total of 64 genotypes, despite this being a clonally propagated crop, and show three major dispersal hubs within Remote Oceania, centered on the islands of Fiji, Tonga, and Pitcairn. Of 64 genotypes identified, 55 correspond to genotypes associated to female-sexed plants that probably descend from plants introduced by the prehistoric Austronesian-speaking voyagers. The ratio of accessions to genotypes between herbarium and contemporary samples, suggests recent loss of genetic diversity. In addition to the chloroplast haplotypes described previously, we detected two new haplotypes within Remote Oceania both originating in Taiwan. This is the first study of a commensal species to show genetic structuring within Remote Oceania. In spite of the genetic bottleneck, the presence of only one sex, a timespan of less than 5000 years, and asexual propagation of this crop in Remote Oceania, we detect genetic diversity and regional structuring. These observations suggest specific migration routes between island groups within Remote Oceania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adapting methods from complex system analysis, this paper analyzes the features of the complex relationship between wage inequality and the development and industrialization of a country. Development is understood as a combination of a monetary index, GDP per capita, and a recently introduced measure of a country’s economic complexity: Fitness. Initially the paper looks at wage inequality on a global scale, over the time period 1990–2008. Our empirical results show that globally the movement of wage inequality along with the ongoing industrialization of countries has followed a longitudinally persistent pattern comparable to the one theorized by Kuznets in the fifties: countries with an average level of development suffer the highest levels of wage inequality. Next, the study narrows its focus on wage inequality within the United States. By using data on wages and employment in the approximately 3100 US counties over the time interval 1990–2014, it generalizes the Fitness-Complexity metric for geographic units and industrial sectors, and then investigates wage inequality between NAICS industries. The empirical time and scale dependencies are consistent with a relation between wage inequality and development driven by institutional factors comparing countries, and by change in the structural compositions of sectors in a homogeneous institutional environment, such as the counties of the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to produce timely and accurate flu forecasts in the United States can significantly impact public health. Augmenting forecasts with internet data has shown promise for improving forecast accuracy and timeliness in controlled settings, but results in practice are less convincing, as models augmented with internet data have not consistently outperformed models without internet data. In this paper, we perform a controlled experiment, taking into account data backfill, to improve clarity on the benefits and limitations of augmenting an already good flu forecasting model with internet-based nowcasts. Our results show that a good flu forecasting model can benefit from the augmentation of internet-based nowcasts in practice for all considered public health-relevant forecasting targets. The degree of forecast improvement due to nowcasting, however, is uneven across forecasting targets, with short-term forecasting targets seeing the largest improvements and seasonal targets such as the peak timing and intensity seeing relatively marginal improvements. The uneven forecasting improvements across targets hold even when “perfect” nowcasts are used. These findings suggest that further improvements to flu forecasting, particularly seasonal targets, will need to derive from other, non-nowcasting approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model is modified to analyze post-work grocery shopping activity duration. Much previous shopping duration analysis was conducted using the proportional hazard (PH) modeling approach. Once the proportionality assumption was violated, the traditional accelerated failure time (TAFT) model was usually selected as an alternative modeling approach. However, a TAFT model only has covariates with non-proportional and time-dependent effects on the hazard overtime while a PH model only accommodates covariates with proportional and time-independent effects. Neither of them considers the possibility that some of covariates may have proportional and time-independent effects and some may have non-proportional and time-dependent effects on the hazard value in one model. To address this issue, the paper generalizes the TAFT model and develops a modified accelerated failure time (MAFT) model to accommodate both time-dependent and time-independent covariates for activity duration analysis. Checking on the proportionality assumption indicates that the assumption is not valid in the post-work grocery shopping activity data extracted from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) conducted by the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT). Both TAFT and MAFT models are developed for comparisons and analysis. The empirical and statistical results show that there do exist two different types of covariates affecting shopping activity duration, including covariates only with proportional and time-independent effects (i.e. working duration, commute travel time) and those with non-proportional and time-dependent effects. The MAFT model can capture the subtleties in various types of covariate effects and help better understand how those covariates affect activity duration overtime. This paper also shows the importance to develop a flexible duration model with both time-dependent and time-independent covariates for accurately evaluating travel demand management (TDM) policies, like flexible work hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although substantial attention has focused on efforts by the new Administration to block environmental policies, climate politics have been contentious in the US since well before the election of Donald Trump. In this paper, we extend previous work on empirical examinations of echo chambers in US climate politics using new data collected on the federal climate policy network in summer 2016. We test for the similarity and differences at two points in time in homophily and echo chambers using Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) to compare new findings from 2016 to previous work on data from 2010. We show that echo chambers continue to play a significant role in the network of information exchange among policy elites working on the issue of climate change. In contrast to previous findings where echo chambers centered on a binding international commitment to emission reductions, we find that the pre-existing echo chambers have almost completely disappeared and new structures have formed around one of the main components of the Obama Administration’s national climate policy: the Clean Power Plan. These results provide empirical evidence that science communication and policymaking at the elite level shift in relation to the policy instruments under consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While basic access to clean water is critical, another important issue is the affordability of water access for people around the globe. Prior international work has highlighted that a large proportion of consumers could not afford water if priced at full cost recovery levels. Given growing concern about affordability issues due to rising water rates, and a comparative lack of work on affordability in the developed world, as compared to the developing world, more work is needed in developed countries to understand the extent of this issue in terms of the number of households and persons impacted. To address this need, this paper assesses potential affordability issues for households in the United States using the U.S. EPA’s 4.5% affordability criteria for combined water and wastewater services. Analytical results from this paper highlight high-risk and at-risk households for water poverty or unaffordable water services. Many of these households are clustered in pockets of water poverty within counties, which is a concern for individual utility providers servicing a large proportion of customers with a financial inability to pay for water services. Results also highlight that while water rates remain comparatively affordable for many U.S. households, this trend will not continue in the future. If water rates rise at projected amounts over the next five years, conservative projections estimate that the percentage of U.S. households who will find water bills unaffordable could triple from 11.9% to 35.6%. This is a concern due to the cascading economic impacts associated with widespread affordability issues; these issues mean that utility providers could have fewer customers over which to spread the large fixed costs of water service. Unaffordable water bills also impact customers for whom water services are affordable via higher water rates to recover the costs of services that go unpaid by lower income households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emergence in the United States of large-scale “megaregions” centered on major metropolitan areas is a phenomenon often taken for granted in both scholarly studies and popular accounts of contemporary economic geography. This paper uses a data set of more than 4,000,000 commuter flows as the basis for an empirical approach to the identification of such megaregions. We compare a method which uses a visual heuristic for understanding areal aggregation to a method which uses a computational partitioning algorithm, and we reflect upon the strengths and limitations of both. We discuss how choices about input parameters and scale of analysis can lead to different results, and stress the importance of comparing computational results with “common sense” interpretations of geographic coherence. The results provide a new perspective on the functional economic geography of the United States from a megaregion perspective, and shed light on the old geographic problem of the division of space into areal units. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban change (urbanization) has dominated land change science for several decades. However, few studies have focused on what many scholars call the urban densification process (i.e., urban intensity expansion) despite its importance to both planning and subsequent impacts to the environment and local economies. This paper documents past urban densification patterns and uses this information to predict future densification trends in southeastern Wisconsin (SEWI) by using a rich dataset from the United States and by adapting the well-known Land Transformation Model (LTM) for this purpose. Urban densification is a significant and progressive process that often accompanies urbanization more generally. The increasing proportion of lower density areas, rather than higher density areas, was the main characteristic of the urban densification in SEWI from 2001 to 2011. We believe that improving urban land use efficiency to maintain rational densification are effective means toward a sustainable urban landscape. Multiple goodness-of-fit metrics demonstrated that the reconfigured LTM performed relatively well to simulate urban densification patterns in 2006 and 2011, enabling us to forecast densification to 2016 and 2021. The predicted future urban densification patterns are likely to be characterized by higher densities continue to increase at the expense of lower densities. We argue that detailed categories of urban density and specific relevant predictor variables are indispensable for densification prediction. Our study provides researchers working in land change science with important insights into urban densification process modeling. The outcome of this model can help planners to identify the current trajectory of urban development, enabling them to take informed action to promote planning objectives, which could benefit sustainable urbanization definitely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Power demands are set to increase by two-fold within the current century and a high fraction of that demand should be met by carbon free sources. Among the renewable energies, solar energy is among the fastest growing; therefore, a comprehensive and accurate design methodology for solar systems and how they interact with the local environment is vital. This paper addresses the environmental effects of solar panels on an unirrigated pasture that often experiences water stress. Changes to the microclimatology, soil moisture, water usage, and biomass productivity due to the presence of solar panels were quantified. The goal of this study was to show that the impacts of these factors should be considered in designing the solar farms to take advantage of potential net gains in agricultural and power production. Microclimatological stations were placed in the Rabbit Hills agrivoltaic solar arrays, located in Oregon State campus, two years after the solar array was installed. Soil moisture was quantified using neutron probe readings. Significant differences in mean air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and soil moisture were observed. Areas under PV solar panels maintained higher soil moisture throughout the period of observation. A significant increase in late season biomass was also observed for areas under the PV panels (90% more biomass), and areas under PV panels were significantly more water efficient (328% more efficient). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interactions between countries originate from diverse aspects such as geographic proximity, trade, socio-cultural habits, language, religions, etc. Geopolitics studies the influence of a country’s geographic space on its political power and its relationships with other countries. This work reveals the potential of Wikipedia mining for geopolitical study. Actually, Wikipedia offers solid knowledge and strong correlations among countries by linking web pages together for different types of information (e.g. economical, historical, political, and many others). The major finding of this paper is to show that meaningful results on the influence of country ties can be extracted from the hyperlinked structure of Wikipedia. We leverage a novel stochastic matrix representation of Markov chains of complex directed networks called the reduced Google matrix theory. For a selected small size set of nodes, the reduced Google matrix concentrates direct and indirect links of the million-node sized Wikipedia network into a small Perron-Frobenius matrix keeping the PageRank probabilities of the global Wikipedia network. We perform a novel sensitivity analysis that leverages this reduced Google matrix to characterize the influence of relationships between countries from the global network. We apply this analysis to two chosen sets of countries (i.e. the set of 27 European Union countries and a set of 40 top worldwide countries). We show that with our sensitivity analysis we can exhibit easily very meaningful information on geopolitics from five different Wikipedia editions (English, Arabic, Russian, French and German). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turtle shell rattles are percussion instruments used by Indigenous peoples of the Americas in ceremonial contexts to keep rhythm. Archaeological investigations in the southeastern United States produced several complete and partial Eastern box turtle (Terrapene carolina) shell rattles from mortuary contexts dating from the Archaic (ca. 8000–1000 BC) through Mississippian periods (ca. AD 800–1500). Fragmentary turtle remains, some identified as Eastern box turtle, are frequently recovered from non-mortuary contexts. Traditionally, these fragmentary remains are attributed to food waste. Given the archaeological and ethnographic evidence for turtle shell rattles, we need to consider how fragmentary remains might fit into the chaîne opératoire of rattle production. This paper presents the results of an experimental study designed to identify one such chaîne opératoire of rattle production. During this experiment, the data on taphonomic processes such as manufacturing marks, use-wear, and breakage patterns, were recorded. We then tested the taphonomic findings from the experimental study and an object trait list we compiled from known rattle specimens and documentary sources with archaeological turtle remains recovered from non-mortuary contexts at two Mississippian period (ca. AD 1000–1450) sites in Middle Tennessee. Historic indigenous groups are known to have, and still do into the present-day, make and use turtle shell rattles in the region. Ultimately, we determined that “food refuse” should not be the default interpretation of fragmentary box turtle remains, and instead the taphonomic history and contextual associations must be considered in full. The experimental process of crafting turtle shell rattles enhances our understanding of an ancient musical instrument and the success rate of identifying musical artifacts and distinguishing between other modified turtle remains in the archaeological record. This study expands our knowledge of ancient music in North America and prompts re-analysis of curated turtle remains in museums for rattle-related modifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In environmental epidemiology, it is often encountered that multiple time series data with a long-term trend, including seasonality, cannot be fully adjusted by the observed covariates. The long-term trend is difficult to separate from abnormal short-term signals of interest. This paper addresses how to estimate the long-term trend in order to recover short-term signals. Our case study demonstrates that the current spline smoothing methods can result in significant positive and negative cross-correlations from the same dataset, depending on how the smoothing parameters are chosen. To circumvent this dilemma, three classes of time series smoothers are proposed to detrend time series data. These smoothers do not require fine tuning of parameters and can be applied to recover short-term signals. The properties of these smoothers are shown with both a case study using a factorial design and a simulation study using datasets generated from the original dataset. General guidelines are provided on how to discover short-term signals from time series with a long-term trend. The benefit of this research is that a problem is identified and characteristics of possible solutions are determined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding trends in the diverse resources provided by large rivers will help balance tradeoffs among stakeholders and inform strategies to mitigate the effects of landscape scale stressors such as climate change and invasive species. Absent a cohesive coordinated effort to assess trends in important large river resources, a logical starting point is to assess our ability to draw inferences from existing efforts. In this paper, we use a common analytical framework to analyze data from five disparate fish monitoring programs to better understand the nature of spatial and temporal trends in large river fish assemblages. We evaluated data from programs that monitor fishes in the Colorado, Columbia, Illinois, Mississippi, and Tallapoosa rivers using non-metric dimensional scaling ordinations and associated tests to evaluate trends in fish assemblage structure and native fish biodiversity. Our results indicate that fish assemblages exhibited significant spatial and temporal trends in all five of the rivers. We also document native species diversity trends that were variable within and between rivers and generally more evident in rivers with higher species richness and programs of longer duration. We discuss shared and basin-specific landscape level stressors. Having a basic understanding of the nature and extent of trends in fish assemblages is a necessary first step towards understanding factors affecting biodiversity and fisheries in large rivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: As gentrification continues in New York City as well as other urban areas, residents of lower socioeconomic status maybe at higher risk for residential displacement. Yet, there have been few quantitative assessments of the health impacts of displacement. The objective of this paper is to assess the association between displacement and healthcare access and mental health among the original residents of gentrifying neighborhoods in New York City. Methods: We used 2 data sources: 1) 2005–2014 American Community Surveys to identify gentrifying neighborhoods in New York City, and 2) 2006–2014 Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System. Our cohort included 12,882 residents of gentrifying neighborhoods in 2006 who had records of emergency department visits or hospitalization at least once every 2 years in 2006–2014. Rates of emergency department visits and hospitalizations post-baseline were compared between residents who were displaced and those who remained. Results: During 2006–2014, 23% were displaced. Compared with those who remained, displaced residents were more likely to make emergency department visits and experience hospitalizations, mainly due to mental health (Rate Ratio = 1.8, 95% confidence interval = 1.5, 2.2), after controlling for baseline demographics, health status, healthcare utilization, residential movement, and the neighborhood of residence in 2006. Conclusions: These findings suggest negative impacts of displacement on healthcare access and mental health, particularly among adults living in urban areas and with a history of frequent emergency department visits or hospitalizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projecting the long-term trends in energy demand is an increasingly complex endeavor due to the uncertain emerging changes in factors such as climate and policy. The existing energy-economy paradigms used to characterize the long-term trends in the energy sector do not adequately account for climate variability and change. In this paper, we propose a multi-paradigm framework for estimating the climate sensitivity of end-use energy demand that can easily be integrated with the existing energy-economy models. To illustrate the applicability of our proposed framework, we used the energy demand and climate data in the state of Indiana to train a Bayesian predictive model. We then leveraged the end-use demand trends as well as downscaled future climate scenarios to generate probabilistic estimates of the future end-use demand for space cooling, space heating and water heating, at the individual household and building level, in the residential and commercial sectors. Our results indicated that the residential load is much more sensitive to climate variability and change than the commercial load. Moreover, since the largest fraction of the residential energy demand in Indiana is attributed to heating, future warming scenarios could lead to reduced end-use demand due to lower space heating and water heating needs. In the commercial sector, the overall energy demand is expected to increase under the future warming scenarios. This is because the increased cooling load during hotter summer months will likely outpace the reduced heating load during the more temperate winter months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mass migrations by Odonata, although less studied than those of Monarch butterflies and plague locusts, have provoked comment and study for many years. Relatively recently, increasing interest in dragonflies, supported by new technologies, has resulted in more detailed knowledge of the species involved, behavioral mechanisms, and geographic extent. In this paper we examine, in four independent but complementary studies, how larval habitat and emergence phenology interact with climate to shape the evolution of migratory strategy in Anax junius, a common species throughout much of the eastern United States and southern Canada. In brief, we argue that fish predation on larvae, coupled with the need for ample emergent vegetation for oviposition and adult eclosion, dictates that larval development and survival is optimal in ponds that are neither permanent nor extremely ephemeral. Coupled with annual variation in regional weather and winters in much of their range too cold for adult survival, conditions facing newly emerged A. junius may unpredictably favor either local reproduction or long-distance movement to more favorable areas. Both temperature and hydroperiod tend to favor local reproduction early in the adult activity period and migration later, so late emerging adults are more likely to migrate. No single pond is always predictably suitable or unsuitable, however, so ovipositing females also may spread the risk to their offspring by ovipositing at multiple sites that, for migrants, may be distributed over very long distances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean acidification (OA) has the potential to restructure ecosystems due to variation in species sensitivity to the projected changes in ocean carbon chemistry. Ecological models can be forced with scenarios of OA to help scientists, managers, and other stakeholders understand how ecosystems might change. We present a novel methodology for developing estimates of species sensitivity to OA that are regionally specific, and applied the method to the California Current ecosystem. To do so, we built a database of all published literature on the sensitivity of temperate species to decreased pH. This database contains 393 papers on 285 species and 89 multi-species groups from temperate waters around the world. Research on urchins and oysters and on adult life stages dominates the literature. Almost a third of the temperate species studied to date occur in the California Current. However, most laboratory experiments use control pH conditions that are too high to represent average current chemistry conditions in the portion of the California Current water column where the majority of the species live. We developed estimates of sensitivity to OA for functional groups in the ecosystem, which can represent single species or taxonomically diverse groups of hundreds of species. We based these estimates on the amount of available evidence derived from published studies on species sensitivity, how well this evidence could inform species sensitivity in the California Current ecosystem, and the agreement of the available evidence for a species/species group. This approach is similar to that taken by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to characterize certainty when summarizing scientific findings. Most functional groups (26 of 34) responded negatively to OA conditions, but when uncertainty in sensitivity was considered, only 11 groups had relationships that were consistently negative. Thus, incorporating certainty about the sensitivity of species and functional groups to OA is an important part of developing robust scenarios for ecosystem projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ohio Department of Transportation has more than 60 facilities without sewer access generating approximately 19 million gallons of winter maintenance wash water. Off-site disposal is costly, creating the need for sustainable management strategies. The objective of this study was to conduct an exploratory feasibility analysis to assess wash water disposal and potential reuse as brine. Based on a comprehensive literature review and relevant environmental chemistry, a sampling protocol consisting of 31 water quality constituents was utilized for monthly sampling at three geographically distinct Ohio Department of Transportation garages during the winter of 2012. Results were compared to local disposal and reuse guidance limits. Three constituents, including a maximum copper concentration of 858 ppb, exceeded disposal limits, and many constituents also failed to meet reuse limits. Some concentrations were orders of magnitude higher than reuse limits and suggest pre-treatment would be necessary if wash water were reused as brine. These water quality results, in conjunction with copper chemical equilibrium modeling, show pH and dissolved carbon both significantly impact the total dissolved copper concentration and should be measured to assess reuse potential. The sampling protocol and specific obstacles highlighted in this paper aid in the future development of sustainable wash water management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainy weather conditions could result in significantly negative impacts on driving on freeways. However, due to lack of enough historical data and monitoring facilities, many regions are not able to establish reliable risk assessment models to identify such impacts. Given the situation, this paper provides an alternative solution where the procedure of risk assessment is developed based on drivers’ subjective questionnaire and its performance is validated by using actual crash data. First, an ordered logit model was developed, based on questionnaire data collected from Freeway G15 in China, to estimate the relationship between drivers’ perceived risk and factors, including vehicle type, rain intensity, traffic volume, and location. Then, weighted driving risk for different conditions was obtained by the model, and further divided into four levels of early warning (specified by colors) using a rank order cluster analysis. After that, a risk matrix was established to determine which warning color should be disseminated to drivers, given a specific condition. Finally, to validate the proposed procedure, actual crash data from Freeway G15 were compared with the safety prediction based on the risk matrix. The results show that the risk matrix obtained in the study is able to predict driving risk consistent with actual safety implications, under rainy weather conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The topics of climate change and renewable energy are often linked in policy discussions and scientific analysis, but public opinion on these topics exhibits both overlap and divergence. Although renewable energy has potentially broader acceptance than anthropogenic climate change, it can also face differently-based opposition. Analyses of US and regional surveys, including time series of repeated surveys in New Hampshire (2010–2018) and northeast Oregon (2011–2018), explore the social bases and trends of public views on both issues. Political divisions are prominent, although somewhat greater regarding climate change due to substantive differences and more partisan opposition. Regarding climate change and to a lesser extent renewable energy, political divisions tends to widen with education. There also are robust age and temporal effects: younger adults more often prioritize renewable energy development, and agree with scientists on the reality of anthropogenic climate change (ACC). Across all age groups and both regional series, support for renewable energy and recognition of ACC have been gradually rising. Contrary to widespread speculation, these trends have not visibly responded to events such as the US hurricanes of 2012, 2017 or 2018. Together with age-cohort replacement and the potential for changes in age-group voting participation, however, the gradual trends suggest that public pressure for action on these issues could grow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Instabilities and long term shifts in seasons, whether induced by natural drivers or human activities, pose great disruptive threats to ecological, agricultural, and social systems. Here, we propose, measure, and explore two fundamental markers of location-sensitive seasonal variations: the Summer and Winter Teletherms—the on-average annual dates of the hottest and coldest days of the year. We analyse daily temperature extremes recorded at 1218 stations across the contiguous United States from 1853–2012, and observe large regional variation with the Summer Teletherm falling up to 90 days after the Summer Solstice, and 50 days for the Winter Teletherm after the Winter Solstice. We show that Teletherm temporal dynamics are substantive with clear and in some cases dramatic shifts reflective of system bifurcations. We also compare recorded daily temperature extremes with output from two regional climate models finding considerable though relatively unbiased error. Our work demonstrates that Teletherms are an intuitive, powerful, and statistically sound measure of local climate change, and that they pose detailed, stringent challenges for future theoretical and computational models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Torosaurus latus is an uncommon and contentious taxon of chasmosaurine ceratopsid known from several upper Maastrichtian units in western North America. We describe a partial parietal of To. latus from the Hell Creek Formation of Montana. Although the specimen’s ontogenetic maturity means that it cannot inform the ongoing debate over whether To. latus is the old adult form of the contemporary Triceratops, the specimen is one of the best-preserved To. latus parietals and supplements previous descriptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to contribute to conservation planning efforts for golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the western U.S., we developed nest site models using >6,500 nest site locations throughout a >3,483,000 km2 area of the western U.S. We developed models for twelve discrete modeling regions, and estimated relative density of nest sites for each region. Cross-validation showed that, in general, models accurately estimated relative nest site densities within regions and sub-regions. Areas estimated to have the highest densities of breeding golden eagles had from 132–2,660 times greater densities compared to the lowest density areas. Observed nest site densities were very similar to those reported from published studies. Large extents of each modeling region consisted of low predicted nest site density, while a small percentage of each modeling region contained disproportionately high nest site density. For example, we estimated that areas with relative nest density values <0.3 represented from 62.8–97.8% ( = 82.5%) of each modeling area, and those areas contained from 14.7–30.0% ( = 22.1%) of the nest sites. In contrast, areas with relative nest density values >0.5 represented from 1.0–12.8% ( = 6.3%) of modeling areas, and those areas contained from 47.7–66.9% ( = 57.3%) of the nest sites. Our findings have direct application to: 1) large-scale conservation planning efforts, 2) risk analyses for land-use proposals such as recreational trails or wind power development, and 3) identifying mitigation areas to offset the impacts of human disturbance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Learning can be difficult for students due to incorrect prior knowledge, or misconceptions, interfering with the acquisition of new knowledge. Conceptual change refers to the process of replacing such misconceptions with new and accurate knowledge. The factors associated with conceptual change are currently under debate. The present study attempts to replicate previous investigations of how text style and epistemic beliefs impact conceptual change, and extends this work by investigating how those factors differentially facilitate conceptual change within participants. 157 college students completed a two-part, within participants study in which they completed pretests, read passages addressing a misconception, completed posttests, and were assessed on their epistemic beliefs. Text style (expository vs. refutation) and two dimensions of epistemic beliefs (texture and variability) did not directly impact pre-to-posttest changes in performance. However, interactions between text type, texture, and variability were related to changes in performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research linking green space and mental health abounds. It also appears that oceanic blue spaces may be salutogenic, benefitting mental health through their expansive viewscapes, and possibly auditory and olfactory stimuli. Yet, it is unknown whether the same is true for freshwater bodies. In this ecological study, we explored associations between hospitalizations for anxiety/mood disorder in Michigan (>30,000) and proximity to the North American Great Lakes. As a sensitivity analysis, we examined associations for 15 different inland lake sizes. Results showed small, protective effects for distance to Great Lake (β = 0.06, p<0.001) and percentage of inland lakes (β = -0.04, p = 0.004). Unexpectedly, shorter distance to nearest inland lake was associated with higher anxiety/mood disorder hospitalizations. The protective effects of percentage area covered by inland lakes was observed for all lake sizes. These initial findings provide a foundation for future individual-level research with finer measurement of health outcomes and blue space exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The drivers of latitudinal differences in the phylogenetic and ecological composition of communities are increasingly studied and understood, but still little is known about the factors underlying morphological differences. High-resolution, three-dimensional morphological data collected using computerized micro-tomography (micro-CT) allows comprehensive comparisons of morphological diversity across latitude. Using marine bivalves as a model system, this study combines 3D shape analysis (based on a new semi-automated procedure for placing landmarks and semilandmarks on shell surfaces) with non-shape traits: centroid size, proportion of shell to soft-tissue volume, and magnitude of shell ornamentation. Analyses conducted on the morphology of 95% of all marine bivalve species from two faunas along the Atlantic coast of North America, the tropical Florida Keys and the boreal Gulf of Maine, show that morphological shifts between these two faunas, and in phylogenetic and ecological subgroups shared between them, occur as changes in total variance with a bounded minimum rather than directional shifts. The dispersion of species in shell-shape morphospace is greater in the Gulf of Maine, which also shows a lower variance in ornamentation and size than the Florida Keys, but the faunas do not differ significantly in the ratio of shell to internal volume. Thus, regional differences conform to hypothesized effects of resource seasonality and predation intensity, but not to carbonate saturation or calcification costs. The overall morphological differences between the regional faunas is largely driven by the loss of ecological functional groups and family-level clades at high latitudes, rather than directional shifts in morphology within the shared groups with latitude. Latitudinal differences in morphology thus represent a complex integration of phylogenetic and ecological factors that are best captured in multivariate analyses across several hierarchical levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Blooms of the toxic microalga Karenia brevis occur seasonally in Florida, Texas and other portions of the Gulf of Mexico. Brevetoxins produced during Karenia blooms can cause neurotoxic shellfish poisoning in humans, massive fish kills, and the death of marine mammals and birds. Brevetoxin-containing aerosols are an additional problem, having a severe impact on beachgoers, triggering coughing, eye and throat irritation in healthy individuals, and more serious respiratory distress in those with asthma or other breathing disorders. The blooms and associated aerosol impacts are patchy in nature, often affecting one beach but having no impact on an adjacent beach. To provide timely information to visitors about which beaches are low-risk, we developed HABscope; a low cost (~$400) microscope system that can be used in the field by citizen scientists with cell phones to enumerate K. brevis cell concentrations in the water along each beach. The HABscope system operates by capturing short videos of collected water samples and uploading them to a central server for rapid enumeration of K. brevis cells using calibrated recognition software. The HABscope has a detection threshold of about 100,000 cells, which is the point when respiratory risk becomes evident. Higher concentrations are reliably estimated up to 10 million cells L-1. When deployed by volunteer citizen scientists, the HABscope consistently distinguished low, medium, and high concentrations of cells in the water. The volunteers were able to collect data on most days during a severe bloom. This indicates that the HABscope can provide an effective capability to significantly increase the sampling coverage during Karenia brevis blooms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The maximum entropy model, a commonly used species distribution model (SDM) normally combines observations of the species occurrence with environmental information to predict the geographic distributions of animal or plant species. However, it only produces point estimates for the probability of species existence. To understand the uncertainty of the point estimates, we analytically derived the variance of the outputs of the maximum entropy model from the variance of the input. We applied the analytic method to obtain the standard deviation of dengue importation probability and Aedes aegypti suitability. Dengue occurrence data and Aedes aegypti mosquito abundance data, combined with demographic and environmental data, were applied to obtain point estimates and the corresponding variance. To address the issue of not having the true distributions for comparison, we compared and contrasted the performance of the analytical expression with the bootstrap method and Poisson point process model which proved of equivalence of maximum entropy model with the assumption of independent point locations. Both Dengue importation probability and Aedes aegypti mosquito suitability examples show that the methods generate comparatively the same results and the analytic method we introduced is dramatically faster than the bootstrap method and directly apply to maximum entropy model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In fisheries management, ex-ante analysis of fishermen’s preferences can provide reliable insights into specific characteristics of regulatory alternatives that are desirable, objectionable, or important, in the judgement of fishermen. This knowledge could facilitate consideration by fishery managers of additional regulatory alternatives with high likelihoods of meeting program objectives, minimal disruption to fishing operations and lifestyles, and high levels of acceptance and compliance from the fishing fleet. In this case study, we interviewed Pacific halibut fishermen (n = 76) in four communities across Southeast Alaska, to document their preferences about different types of data collection methods on their vessels. We demonstrate how to use interviewing to gather preference data from a relatively small group of fishermen and get a reliable snapshot of preferences across an entire region. Pairwise comparisons from interviews were analyzed using a three-stage analytic hierarchy process model. Results characterize the variability of fishermen’s preferences about data collection methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cats (Felis catus) are reservoirs of several pathogens that affect humans, including Toxoplasma gondii. Infection of pregnant women with T. gondii can cause ocular and neurological lesions in newborns, and congenital toxoplasmosis has been associated with schizophrenia, epilepsy, movement disorders, and Alzheimer’s disease. We compared seroprevalence of T. gondii and risk factors in people on seven islands in Mexico with and without introduced cats to determine the effect of cat eradication and cat density on exposure to T. gondii. Seroprevalence was zero on an island that never had cats and 1.8% on an island where cats were eradicated in 2000. Seroprevalence was significantly higher (12–26%) on the five islands with cats, yet it did not increase across a five-fold range of cat density. Having cats near households, being male and spending time on the mainland were significant risk factors for T. gondii seroprevalence among individuals, whereas eating shellfish was protective. Our results suggest that cats are an important source of T. gondii on islands, and eradicating, but not controlling, introduced cats from islands could benefit human health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Government funding accounts for a large proportion of conservation and environmental improvements, and is often the result of citizen votes on state ballot measures. A key concern surrounding public investments in the environment is whether that funding serves lower-income communities, which are often the communities of greatest need. We applied three statistical methods to analyze the spatial distribution of conservation funding derived from California’s Proposition 84, which distributed nearly $4 billion across California between 2006 and 2015. First, we used hurdle models to ask if income, population density, urban coverage, or pollution could explain receipt of grants or magnitude of funding. Second, we compared the income levels of funded and unfunded communities for each chapter of the proposition. Finally, we examine two sections of the proposition that were intended to fund parks around the state and compare the attributes of funded and unfunded communities. Proposition 84 offers lessons for environmental legislation and future research. While there were general tendencies for more funding to flow to poor areas and areas with pollution problems, the language in Proposition 84 as a whole was vague with respect to the funding of disadvantaged areas, and as a result the targeting of these areas overall was at best modest. However, when enabling legislation (AB 31) defined specific “metrics of disadvantage” that had to be met by communities to receive funds from some sections of Proposition 84, the funds did flow much more selectively to poorer communities. This suggests that future ballot measures should be very explicit in their language if they want to promote equity in conservation investments, and that future research should investigate the extent to which technical workshops and outreach could further increase the number of funded grant proposals from low-income communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in land use have resulted in range shifts of many wildlife species, including those entering novel environments, resulting in the critical need to understand their spatial ecology to inform ecosystem effects and management decisions. Dispersing elk (Cervus elaphus) were colonizing areas of suitable habitat in the Northern Great Plains, USA, resulting in crop depredation complaints in these areas. Although state resource managers had little information on these elk herds, limited evidence suggested temporal movements into Canada. We collected and analyzed essential information on home range and habitat selection for 3 elk herds residing in North Dakota. We captured 5 adult female elk in each study area, affixed global positioning system collars, and monitored them for 1 year (2016–2017). We estimated diel period, seasonal, and hunting season home ranges using Brownian Bridge Movement Models for each individual. We analyzed habitat selection using multinomial logit models to test for differences in use of land classes, and for departures from proportionate use based on random sampling; our predictor variables included individual elk, diel period, and season. Home ranges differed between the 3 herds, seasons, and diel period; gun and winter season home ranges were both larger than in summer, as was night when compared with day. Female elk generally restricted themselves to cover during the day and entered open areas at night and during winter months. Our results also suggest that elk in our study areas tended to seek more cover, and in the case of our Turtle Mountain study area, some cross into Canada during gun season. Our study provides a better understanding of the spatial ecology of elk in the Northern Great Plains while highlighting the need for enhanced international cooperative management efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) is a powerful environmental law protecting imperiled plants and animals, and a growing number of marine species have been protected under this law as extinction risk in the oceans has increased. Marine mammals and sea turtles comprise 38% of the 163 ESA-listed marine “species”, which includes subspecies and distinct population segments, yet analyses of recovery trends after listing are lacking. Here we gathered the best available annual abundance estimates for geographically delimited populations of all 62 marine mammal and sea turtle species listed under the ESA. Of these, we chose representative populations of species that were listed before 2012, occur and reproduce in U.S. waters, and have data of sufficient quality and timespan for trend analyses. Thus, we quantitatively analyzed population trends, magnitude of population change, and recovery status for 23 and 8 representative populations of 14 marine mammal and 5 sea turtle species, respectively. Using generalized linear and non-linear models, we found that 18 marine mammal (78%) and 6 sea turtle (75%) populations significantly increased after listing; 3 marine mammal (13%) and 2 sea turtle (25%) populations showed non-significant changes; while 2 marine mammal (9%), but no sea turtle populations declined after ESA protection. Overall, the 24 populations that increased in abundance were from species listed for 20 years or more (e.g., large whales, manatees, and sea turtles). Conservation measures triggered by ESA listing such as ending exploitation, tailored species management, and fishery regulations, and other national and international measures, appear to have been largely successful in promoting species recovery, leading to the delisting of some species and to increases in most populations. These findings underscore the capacity of marine mammal and sea turtle species to recover from substantial geographical population declines when conservation actions are implemented in a timely and effective manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A recent global trend toward retirement of farmland presents opportunities to reclaim habitat for threatened and endangered species. We examine habitat restoration opportunities in one of the world’s most converted landscapes, California’s San Joaquin Desert (SJD). Despite the presence of 35 threatened and endangered species, agricultural expansion continues to drive habitat loss in the SJD, even as marginal farmland is retired. Over the next decades a combination of factors, including salinization, climate change, and historical groundwater overdraft, are projected to lead to the retirement of more than 2,000 km2 of farmland in the SJD. To promote strategic habitat protection and restoration, we conducted a quantitative assessment of habitat loss and fragmentation, habitat suitability, climatic niche stability, climate change impacts, habitat protection, and reintroduction opportunities for an umbrella species of the SJD, the endangered blunt-nosed leopard lizard (Gambelia sila). We use our suitability models, in conjunction with modern and historical land use maps, to estimate the historical and modern rate of habitat loss to development. The estimated amount of habitat lost since the species became protected under endangered species law in 1967 is greater than the total amount of habitat currently protected through public ownership and conservation easement. We document climatic niche contraction and associated range contraction away from the more mesic margins of the species’ historical distribution, driven by the anthropogenic introduction of exotic grasses and forbs. The impact of exotic species on G. sila range dynamics appears to be still unfolding. Finally, we use NASA fallowed area maps to identify 610 km2 of fallowed or retired agricultural land with high potential to again serve as habitat. We discuss conservation strategies in light of the potential for habitat restoration and multiple drivers of ongoing and historical habitat loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The two stocks of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska include an endangered western stock, recently recovering in parts of its range following decades of decline, and an eastern stock which was removed from the U.S. Endangered Species List in 2013 following increasing numbers since the 1970s. Information on overlapping distributions of eastern and western sea lions is needed for management considerations. We analyzed >30,000 sightings collected from 2000–2014 of 2,385 sea lions that were branded as pups at 10 Alaskan rookeries to examine mesoscale (mostly <500km) spatial distribution, geographic range, and geographic population structure based on natal rookery, sex, and age during breeding and non-breeding seasons. Analyses of summary movement measures (e.g., natal rookery, sex, and age-class differences in spatial distribution and geographic range) indicate wide variation in rookery-specific movement patterns. Correlations between movement measures and population dynamics suggested movement patterns could be a function of density dependence. Animals from larger rookeries, and rookeries with slower population growth and lower survival, had wider dispersion than animals from smaller rookeries, or rookeries with high growth and survival. Sea lions from the largest rookery, Forrester Island, where survival and population trends are lowest, were the most widely distributed. Analysis of geographic population structure indicated that animals born in the eastern Aleutian Islands had the most distinct movements and had little overlap with other western sea lions. Northern Southeast Alaska, within the eastern stock, is the area of greatest overlap between stocks, and is important to western animals, especially those born in Prince William Sound. Detailed knowledge of distribution and movements of western sea lions is useful for defining recovery and population trend analysis regions that better reflect dispersion and population structure and provides valuable information to managers as critical habitat is re-evaluated and the location of the stock boundary reconsidered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Managers need information about the vulnerability of historical plant communities, and their potential future conditions, to respond appropriately to landscape change driven by global climate change. We model the climate envelopes of plant communities on the Kenai Peninsula in Southcentral Alaska and forecast to 2020, 2050, and 2080. We assess 6 model outputs representing downscaled climate data from 3 global climate model outputs and 2 representative concentration pathways. We use two lines of evidence, model convergence and empirically measured rates of change, to identify the following plausible ecological trajectories for the peninsula: (1.) alpine tundra and sub-alpine shrub decrease, (2.) perennial snow and ice decrease, (3.) forests remain on the Kenai Lowlands, (4.) the contiguous white-Lutz-Sitka spruce complex declines, and (5.) mixed conifer afforestation occurs along the Gulf of Alaska coast. We suggest that converging models in the context of other lines of evidence is a viable approach to increase certainty for adaptation planning. Extremely dynamic areas with multiple outcomes (i.e., disagreement) among models represent ecological risk, but may also represent opportunities for facilitated adaptation and other managerial approaches to help tip the balance one way or another. By reducing uncertainty, this eclectic approach can be used to inform expectations about the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most of future population growth will take place in the world’s cities and towns. Yet, there is no well-established, consistent way to measure either urban land or people. Even census-based urban concepts and measures undergo frequent revision, impeding rigorous comparisons over time and place. This study presents a new spatial approach to derive consistent urban proxies for the US. It compares census-designated urban blocks with proxies for land-based classifications of built-up areas derived from time-series of the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) for 1990–2010. This comparison provides a new way to understand urban structure and its changes: Most land that is more than 50% built-up, and people living on such land, are officially classified as urban. However, 30% of the census-designated urban population and land is located in less built-up areas that can be characterized as mainly suburban and peri-urban in nature. Such insights are important starting points for a new urban research program: creating globally and temporally consistent proxies to guide modelling of urban change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We determined the number of permits for oil and gas activities in 14 coastal Louisiana parishes from 1900 to 2017, compared them to land loss on this coast, and estimated their restoration potential. A total of 76,247 oil and gas recovery wells were permitted, of which 35,163 (46%) were on land (as of 2010) and 27,483 of which are officially abandoned. There is a direct spatial and temporal relationship between the number of these permits and land loss, attributable to the above and belowground changes in hydrology resulting from the dredged material levees placed parallel to the canal (spoil banks). These hydrologic modifications cause various direct and indirect compromises to plants and soils resulting in wetland collapse. Although oil and gas recovery beneath southern Louisiana wetlands has dramatically declined since its peak in the early 1960s, it has left behind spoil banks with a total length sufficient to cross coastal Louisiana 79 times from east to west. Dragging down the remaining material in the spoil bank back into the canal is a successful restoration technique that is rarely applied in Louisiana, but could be a dramatically cost-effective and proven long-term strategy if political will prevails. The absence of a State or Federal backfilling program is a huge missed opportunity to: 1) conduct cost-effective restoration at a relatively low cost, and, 2) conduct systematic restoration monitoring and hypothesis testing that advances knowledge and improves the efficacy of future attempts. The price of backfilling all canals is about $335 million dollars, or 0.67% of the State’s Master Plan for restoration and a pittance of the economic value gained from extracting the oil and gas beneath over the last 100 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grapevine leafroll-associated virus 3 (GLRaV-3) is the most widely prevalent and economically important of the complex of RNA viruses associated with grapevine leafroll disease (GLD). Phylogenetic studies have grouped GLRaV-3 isolates into nine different monophyletic groups and four supergroups, making GLRaV-3 a genetically highly diverse virus species. In addition, new divergent variants have been discovered recently around the world. Accurate identification of the virus is an essential component in the management and control of GLRaV-3; however, the diversity of GLRaV-3, coupled with the limited sequence information, have complicated the development of a reliable detection assay. In this study, GLRaV-3 sequence data available in GenBank and those generated at Foundation Plant Services, University of California-Davis, was used to develop a new RT-qPCR assay with the capacity to detect all known GLRaV-3 variants. The new assay, referred to as FPST, was challenged against samples that included plants infected with different GLRaV-3 variants and originating from 46 countries. The FPST assay detected all known GLRaV-3 variants, including the highly divergent variants, by amplifying a small highly conserved region in the 3’ untranslated terminal region (UTR) of the virus genome. The reliability of the new RT-qPCR assay was confirmed by an enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) that can detect all known GLRaV-3 variants characterized to date. Additionally, three new GLRaV-3 divergent variants, represented by four isolates, were identified using a hierarchical testing process involving the FPST assay, GLRaV-3 variant-specific assays and high-throughput sequencing analysis. These variants were distantly related to groups I, II, III, V, VI, VII and IX, but much similar to GLRaV-3 variants with no assigned group; thus, they may represent new clades. Finally, based on the phylogenetic analysis, a new GLRaV-3 subclade is proposed and named as group X. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, environmental disasters impact billions of people and cost trillions of dollars in damage, and their impacts are often felt most acutely by minority and poor communities. Wildfires in the U.S. have similarly outsized impacts on vulnerable communities, though the ethnic and geographic distribution of those communities may be different than for other hazards. Here, we develop a social-ecological approach for characterizing fire vulnerability and apply it to >70,000 census tracts across the United States. Our approach incorporates both the wildfire potential of a landscape and socioeconomic attributes of overlying communities. We find that over 29 million Americans live with significant potential for extreme wildfires, a majority of whom are white and socioeconomically secure. Within this segment, however, are 12 million socially vulnerable Americans for whom a wildfire event could be devastating. Additionally, wildfire vulnerability is spread unequally across race and ethnicity, with census tracts that were majority Black, Hispanic or Native American experiencing ca. 50% greater vulnerability to wildfire compared to other census tracts. Embracing a social-ecological perspective of fire-prone landscapes allows for the identification of areas that are poorly equipped to respond to wildfires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nutrient loss reduction strategies have recently been developed in the U.S. Midwest to decrease the environmental footprint associated with nitrogen (N) fertilizer use. Although these strategies generally suggest decreasing N rates and shifting the timing of N application from fall to spring, the spatiotemporal impacts of these practices on maize yield and fertilizer N use efficiency (NUE, kg grain yield increase per kg N applied) have not been assessed at the watershed scale using crop simulation models. We simulated the effects of N fertilizer rate (0, 168, 190, 224 kg N ha-1) and application timing [fall-applied N (FN): 100% N applied on 1 December; spring-applied N (SN): 100% N applied 10 days before planting; split N: 66% N applied on 1 December + 34% N applied 10 days before planting] on maize grain yield (GY) across 3042 points in Illinois during 2011–2015 using the DSSAT-CERES-Maize model. When simulations were scaled up to the watershed level, results suggest that increases in average maize GY for SN compared to FN occurred in years with higher than average winter rainfall (2011, 2013), whereas yields were similar (+/- 4%) in 2012, 2014, and 2015. Accordingly, differences in NUE for SN compared to FN were small (0.0–1.4 kg GY/kg N) when cumulative winter rainfall was < 300 mm, but increased to 0.1–9.2 kg GY/kg N when winter rainfall was > 500 mm at both 168 kg N ha-1 and 224 kg N ha-1. The combined practice of reducing N fertilizer amounts from 224 kg N ha-1 to 190 kg N ha-1 and shifting from FN to SN resulted in a wide range of yield responses during 2011–2015, with the probability of increasing yields varying from <10% to >70% of simulation points within a watershed. Positive impacts on both GY and NUE occurred in only 60% of simulations for this scenario, highlighting the challenge of simultaneously improving yield and NUE with a 15% N rate reduction in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neonicotinoids are a popular and widely-used class of insecticides whose heavy usage rates and purported negative impacts on bees and other beneficial insects has led to questions about their mobility and accumulation in the environment. Neonicotinoid compounds are currently registered for over 140 different crop uses in the United States, with commercial growers continuing to rely heavily on neonicotinoid insecticides for the control of key insect pests through a combination of in-ground and foliar applications. In 2008, the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection (DATCP) began testing for neonicotinoids in groundwater test wells in the state, reporting detections of one or more neonicotinoids in dozens of shallow groundwater test wells. In 2011, similar detection levels were confirmed in several high-capacity overhead center-pivot irrigation systems in central Wisconsin. The current study was initiated to investigate the spatial extent and magnitude of neonicotinoid contamination in groundwater in and around areas of irrigated commercial agriculture in central Wisconsin. From 2013–2015 a total of 317 samples were collected from 91 unique high-capacity irrigation wells and tested for the presence of thiamethoxam (TMX), a neonicotinoid, using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. 67% of all samples were positive for TMX at a concentration above the analytical limit of quantification (0.05 μg/L) and 78% of all wells tested positive at least once. Mean detection was 0.28 μg/L, with a maximum detection of 1.67 μg/L. Five wells had at least one detection exceeding 1.00 μg/L. Furthermore, an analysis of the spatial structure of these well detects suggests that contamination profiles vary across the landscape, with differences in mean detection levels observed from landscape (25 km), to farm (5 km), to individual well (500 m) scales. We also provide an update of DATCP’s neonicotinoid monitoring in Wisconsin’s shallow groundwater test wells and private potable wells for the years 2011–2017. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

“The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990–2016” by Fazel-Zarandi, Feinstein and Kaplan presents strikingly higher estimates of the unauthorized immigrant population than established estimates using the residual method. Fazel-Zarandi et. al.’s estimates range from a low or “conservative” number of 16.7 million unauthorized immigrants, to an “average” of 22.1 million, and to a high of 27.5 million. The Pew Hispanic Center estimated the population at 11.3 million in 2016, and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) estimated it at 12.3 million. The new method shows much more rapid growth in unauthorized immigration during the 1990s and a substantially higher population in 2000 (13.3 million according to their “conservative” model) than Pew (8.6 million) and DHS (8.5 million). In this commentary, we explain that such an estimate for 2000 is implausible, as it suggests that the 2000 Census undercounted the unauthorized immigrant population by at least 42% in the 2000 Census, and it is misaligned with other demographic data. Fazel-Zarandi, Feinstein and Kaplan’s model produces estimates that have a 10 million-person range in 2016, far too wide to be useful for public policy purposes; their estimates are not benchmarked against any external data sources; and their model appears to be driven by assumptions about return migration of unauthorized immigrants during the 1990s. Using emigration rates from the binational Mexican Migration Project survey for the illegal border-crosser portion of the unauthorized population, we generate a 2000 unauthorized population estimate of 8.2 million—slightly below Pew and DHS’s estimates—without changing other assumptions in the model. We conclude that this new model’s estimates are highly sensitive to assumptions about emigration, and moreover, that the knowledge base about emigration in the unauthorized population during the 1990s is not well enough developed to support the model underlying their estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Low Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS) represents a new policy approach designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by applying standards to all stages of motor fuel production. We use the synthetic control and difference-in-differences econometric methods, and Lasso machine learning to analyze the effect of the LCFS on emissions in California’s transportation sector. The three different techniques provide robust evidence that the LCFS reduced carbon dioxide emissions in California’s transportation sector by around 10%. Furthermore, our calculations show that improved air quality, due to the application of the LCFS, may have benefited California in the magnitude of hundreds of millions of dollars through an increase in worker’s productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While many studies on tribal water resources of individual tribal lands in the United States (US) have been conducted, the importance of tribal water resources at a national scale has largely gone unrecognized because their combined totals have not been quantified. Thus, we sought to provide a numerical estimate of major water budget components on tribal lands within the conterminous US and on USGS hydrologic unit codes (HUC2) regions. Using existing national-scale data and models, we estimated mean annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, excess precipitation, streamflow, and water use for the period 1971–2000. Tribal lands represent about 3.4 percent of the total land area of the conterminous US and on average account for 1.9 percent of precipitation, 2.4 percent of actual evapotranspiration, 0.95 percent of excess precipitation, 1.6 percent of water use, and 0.43 percent of streamflow origination. Additionally, approximately 9.5 and 11.3 percent of US streamflow flows through or adjacent as boundaries to tribal lands, respectively. Streamflow through or adjacent to tribal lands accounts for 42 and 48 percent of streamflow in the Missouri region, respectively; and for 86 and 88 percent in the Lower Colorado region, respectively. On average, 5,600 million cubic meters of streamflow per year was produced on tribal lands in the Pacific Northwest region, nearly five times greater than tribal lands in any other region. Tribal lands in the Great Lakes, Missouri, Arkansas-White-Red, and California regions all produced between 1,000 and 1,400 million cubic meters per year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ganoderma is a large, diverse and globally-distributed genus in the Basidiomycota that includes species causing a white rot form of wood decay on a variety of tree species. For the past century, many studies of Ganoderma in North America and other regions of the world have used the name G. lucidum sensu lato for any laccate (shiny or varnished) Ganoderma species growing on hardwood trees or substrates. Molecular studies have established that G. lucidum sensu stricto (Curtis) Karst is native to Europe and some parts of China. To determine the species of the laccate Ganoderma that are present in the United States, we studied over 500 collections from recently collected samples and herbarium specimens from hardwoods, conifers, and monocots. A multilocus phylogeny using ITS, tef1α, rpb1 and rpb2 revealed three well-supported clades, similar to previously reported findings. From the U.S. collections, thirteen taxa representing twelve species were identified, including: G. curtisii, G. lucidum sensu stricto, G. martinicense, G. oregonense, G. polychromum, G. ravenelii, G. sessile, G. tsugae, G. tuberculosum, G. cf. weberianum, G. zonatum, and Tomophagus colossus (syn. G. colossus). The species G. meredithiae is synonymized with G. curtisii, and considered a physiological variant that specializes in decay of pines. The designation G. curtisii f.sp. meredithiae forma specialis nov. is proposed. Species such as G. curtisii and G. sessile, once considered as G. lucidum sensu lato, were found to be divergent from one another, and highly divergent from G. lucidum sensu stricto. Morphological characteristics such as context tissue color and features (e.g. melanoid bands), basidiospore shape and size, geographic location, and host preference were found to aid in species identification. Surprisingly, G. lucidum sensu stricto was found in the U.S., but only in geographically restricted areas of northern Utah and California. These collections appear to have resulted from the introduction of this species into the United States possibly from mushroom growers producing G. lucidum outdoors. Overall, this study clarifies the chaotic taxonomy of the laccate Ganoderma in the United States, and will help to remove ambiguities from future studies focusing on the North American species of laccate Ganoderma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genetic variation is the basis upon which natural selection acts to yield evolutionary change. In a rapidly changing environment, increasing genetic variation should increase evolutionary potential, particularly for small, isolated populations. However, the introduction of new alleles, either through natural or human-mediated processes, may have unpredictable consequences such as outbreeding depression. In this study, we identified a contact zone and limited gene flow between historically separated genetic lineages of American pikas (Ochotona princeps), representing the northern and southern Rocky Mountain subspecies, within Rocky Mountain National Park. The limited spatial extent of gene flow observed may be the result of geographic barriers to dispersal, selection against hybrid individuals, or both. Our fine-scale population genetic analysis suggests gene flow is limited but not completely obstructed by extreme topography such as glacial valleys, as well as streams including the Colorado River. The discovery of two subspecies within this single protected area has implications for monitoring and management, particularly in the light of recent analyses suggesting that the pikas in this park are vulnerable to fragmentation and local extinction under future projected climates. Future research should focus on the fitness consequences of introgression among distinct genetic lineages in this location and elsewhere, as well as within the context of genetic rescue as a conservation and management strategy for a climate sensitive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Policies to mitigate climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can yield public health benefits by also reducing emissions of hazardous co-pollutants, such as air toxics and particulate matter. Socioeconomically disadvantaged communities are typically disproportionately exposed to air pollutants, and therefore climate policy could also potentially reduce these environmental inequities. We sought to explore potential social disparities in GHG and co-pollutant emissions under an existing carbon trading program-the dominant approach to GHG regulation in the US and globally.Methods and Findings: We examined the relationship between multiple measures of neighborhood disadvantage and the location of GHG and co-pollutant emissions from facilities regulated under California's cap-and-trade program-the world's fourth largest operational carbon trading program. We examined temporal patterns in annual average emissions of GHGs, particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, volatile organic compounds, and air toxics before (January 1, 2011-December 31, 2012) and after (January 1, 2013-December 31, 2015) the initiation of carbon trading. We found that facilities regulated under California's cap-and-trade program are disproportionately located in economically disadvantaged neighborhoods with higher proportions of residents of color, and that the quantities of co-pollutant emissions from these facilities were correlated with GHG emissions through time. Moreover, the majority (52%) of regulated facilities reported higher annual average local (in-state) GHG emissions since the initiation of trading. Neighborhoods that experienced increases in annual average GHG and co-pollutant emissions from regulated facilities nearby after trading began had higher proportions of people of color and poor, less educated, and linguistically isolated residents, compared to neighborhoods that experienced decreases in GHGs. These study results reflect preliminary emissions and social equity patterns of the first 3 years of California's cap-and-trade program for which data are available. Due to data limitations, this analysis did not assess the emissions and equity implications of GHG reductions from transportation-related emission sources. Future emission patterns may shift, due to changes in industrial production decisions and policy initiatives that further incentivize local GHG and co-pollutant reductions in disadvantaged communities.Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first study to examine social disparities in GHG and co-pollutant emissions under an existing carbon trading program. Our results indicate that, thus far, California's cap-and-trade program has not yielded improvements in environmental equity with respect to health-damaging co-pollutant emissions. This could change, however, as the cap on GHG emissions is gradually lowered in the future. The incorporation of additional policy and regulatory elements that incentivize more local emission reductions in disadvantaged communities could enhance the local air quality and environmental equity benefits of California's climate change mitigation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models of human migration provide powerful tools to forecast the flow of migrants, measure the impact of a policy, determine the cost of physical and political frictions and more. Here, we analyse the migration of individuals from and to cities in the US, finding that city to city migration follows scaling laws, so that the city size is a significant factor in determining whether, or not, an individual decides to migrate and the city size of both the origin and destination play key roles in the selection of the destination. We observe that individuals from small cities tend to migrate more frequently, tending to move to similar-sized cities, whereas individuals from large cities do not migrate so often, but when they do, they tend to move to other large cities. Building upon these findings we develop a scaling model which describes internal migration as a two-step decision process, demonstrating that it can partially explain migration fluxes based solely on city size. We then consider the impact of distance and construct a gravity-scaling model by combining the observed scaling patterns with the gravity law of migration. Results show that the scaling laws are a significant feature of human migration and that the inclusion of scaling can overcome the limits of the gravity and the radiation models of human migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]