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China’s fast economic growth contributes to the rapid development of its urbanization process, and also renders a series of industrial accidents, which often cause loss of life, damage to property and environment, thus requiring the associated risk analysis and safety control measures to be implemented in advance. However, incompleteness of historical failure data before the occurrence of accidents makes it difficult to use traditional risk analysis approaches such as probabilistic risk analysis in many cases. This paper aims to develop a new methodology capable of assessing regional industrial safety (RIS) in an uncertain environment. A hierarchical structure for modelling the risks influencing RIS is first constructed. The hybrid of evidential reasoning (ER) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is then used to assess the risks in a complementary way, in which AHP is hired to evaluate the weight of each risk factor and ER is employed to synthesise the safety evaluations of the investigated region(s) against the risk factors from the bottom to the top level in the hierarchy. The successful application of the hybrid approach in a real case analysis of RIS in several major districts of Beijing (capital of China) demonstrates its feasibility as well as provides risk analysts and safety engineers with useful insights on effective solutions to comprehensive risk assessment of RIS in metropolitan cities. The contribution of this paper is made by the findings on the comparison of risk levels of RIS at different regions against various risk factors so that best practices from the good performer(s) can be used to improve the safety of the others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aiming to solve the safety problems of high-speed railway operation and management, one new method is urgently needed to construct on the basis of the rough set theory and the uncertainty measurement theory. The method should carefully consider every factor of high-speed railway operation that realizes the measurement indexes of its safety operation. After analyzing the factors that influence high-speed railway safety operation in detail, a rough measurement model is finally constructed to describe the operation process. Based on the above considerations, this paper redistricts the safety influence factors of high-speed railway operation as 16 measurement indexes which include staff index, vehicle index, equipment index and environment. And the paper also provides another reasonable and effective theoretical method to solve the safety problems of multiple attribute measurement in high-speed railway operation. As while as analyzing the operation data of 10 pivotal railway lines in China, this paper respectively uses the rough set-based measurement model and value function model (one model for calculating the safety value) for calculating the operation safety value. The calculation result shows that the curve of safety value with the proposed method has smaller error and greater stability than the value function method’s, which verifies the feasibility and effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To balance the supply and demand in China's beef market, beef consumption must be scientifically and effectively forecasted. Beef consumption is affected by many factors and is characterized by gray uncertainty. Therefore, gray theory can be used to forecast the beef consumption, In this paper, the structural defects and unreasonable parameter design of the traditional gray model are analyzed. Then, a new gray model termed, EGM(1,1,r), is built, and the modeling conditions and error checking methods of EGM(1,1,r) are studied. Then, EGM(1,1,r) is used to simulate and forecast China’s beef consumption. The results show that both the simulation and prediction precisions of the new model are better than those of other gray models. Finally, the new model is used to forecast China’s beef consumption for the period from 2019–2025. The findings will serve as an important reference for the Chinese government in formulating policies to ensure the balance between the supply and demand for Chinese beef. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: AIDS is a worrying public health issue in China and lacks timely and effective surveillance. With the diffusion and adoption of the Internet, the ‘big data’ aggregated from Internet search engines, which contain users’ information on the concern or reality of their health status, provide a new opportunity for AIDS surveillance. This paper uses search engine data to monitor and forecast AIDS in China. Methods: A machine learning method, artificial neural networks (ANNs), is used to forecast AIDS incidences and deaths. Search trend data related to AIDS from the largest Chinese search engine, Baidu.com, are collected and selected as the input variables of ANNs, and officially reported actual AIDS incidences and deaths are used as the output variable. Three criteria, the mean absolute percentage error, the root mean squared percentage error, and the index of agreement, are used to test the forecasting performance of the ANN method. Results: Based on the monthly time series data from January 2011 to June 2017, this article finds that, under the three criteria, the ANN method can lead to satisfactory forecasting of AIDS incidences and deaths, regardless of the change in the number of search queries. Conclusions: Despite the inability to self-detect HIV/AIDS through online searching, Internet-based data should be adopted as a timely, cost-effective complement to a traditional AIDS surveillance system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the past decade, bacillary dysentery was still a big public health problem in China, especially in Guangxi Province, where thousands of severe diarrhea cases occur every year. Methods: Reported bacillary dysentery cases in Guangxi Province were obtained from local Centers for Diseases Prevention and Control. The 14 socio-economic indexes were selected as potential explanatory variables for the study. The spatial correlation analysis was used to explore the associations between the selected factors and bacillary dysentery incidence at county level, which was based on the software of ArcGIS10.2 and GeoDA 0.9.5i. Results: The proportion of primary industry, the proportion of younger than 5-year-old children in total population, the number of hospitals per thousand persons and the rates of bacillary dysentery incidence show statistically significant positive correlation. But the proportion of secondary industry, per capital GDP, per capital government revenue, rural population proportion, popularization rate of tap water in rural area, access rate to the sanitation toilets in rural, number of beds in hospitals per thousand persons, medical and technical personnel per thousand persons and the rate of bacillary dysentery incidence show statistically significant negative correlation. The socio-economic factors can be divided into four aspects, including economic development, health development, medical development and human own condition. The four aspects were not isolated from each other, but interacted with each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We undertook a systematic review of the diagnostic accuracy of artificial intelligence-based software for identification of radiologic abnormalities (computer-aided detection, or CAD) compatible with pulmonary tuberculosis on chest x-rays (CXRs). We searched four databases for articles published between January 2005-February 2019. We summarized data on CAD type, study design, and diagnostic accuracy. We assessed risk of bias with QUADAS-2. We included 53 of the 4712 articles reviewed: 40 focused on CAD design methods (“Development” studies) and 13 focused on evaluation of CAD (“Clinical” studies). Meta-analyses were not performed due to methodological differences. Development studies were more likely to use CXR databases with greater potential for bias as compared to Clinical studies. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (median AUC [IQR]) were significantly higher: in Development studies AUC: 0.88 [0.82–0.90]) versus Clinical studies (0.75 [0.66–0.87]; p-value 0.004); and with deep-learning (0.91 [0.88–0.99]) versus machine-learning (0.82 [0.75–0.89]; p = 0.001). We conclude that CAD programs are promising, but the majority of work thus far has been on development rather than clinical evaluation. We provide concrete suggestions on what study design elements should be improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Ageing is becoming a considerable public health burden in China, which produces great societal development challenges. Healthy and active longevity could ease the ageing burden on families and communities. To date, most studies of the oldest-old distribution are focused on a simple scale from spatial perspective, and the multi-scale spatio-temporal clusters trend in the oldest-old population has not yet been determined. Thus, the objective in present study is to use a new method to evaluate the spatio-temporal pattern and detect the risk clusters in the oldest-old population from three scales. Methods: Individuals aged 65 years or older and individuals aged 80 years or older on three scales in China from 2000 to 2010 were used. The exploratory spatial data analysis was performed using Moran’s I statistic, and the pattern of the oldest-old clusters among humans was examined by using the spatial scan statistical method. Then, spatial stratified heterogeneity was used to explore the factors affecting the spatial heterogeneity of the oldest-old population. Results: The oldest-old index in the southeast coastal areas is higher than that in the northwest inland areas in China. A three-ladder terrain distribution of the oldest-old index from west to east is obvious. The overall pattern of the oldest-old index evolves from a “concave” shape to an “east-west uplift, and northern collapse” shape. Space-time analysis revealed that high-risk areas were concentrated in five regions: the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the Southeast Coast, Sichuan and Chongqing, and the Central Plains. The oldest-old cluster at different scales shows a similar pattern, but local differences exist. The risk at the prefecture scale and county scale is greater than at the interprovincial scale; the sublevel can identify clusters that have not been identified at the previous level, especially the bordering areas of prefectures and counties; and more risk units and greater relative risk are found in urban areas than in rural areas. Conclusions: The results emphasized that spatial scan statistics can be used to estimate the spatial clusters of the oldest-old people. The detection of these clusters might be highly useful in the surveillance of the ageing phenomenon, thus helping local public health authorities measure the population burden at all locations, identifying geographical areas that require more attention, and evaluating the impacts of intervention programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is well recognized as one of the major threats to children's health globally. The increasing complexity of the etiology of HFMD still challenges disease control in China. There is little surveillance of the molecular epidemiological characteristics of the enteroviruses (EVs) that cause HFMD in Neijiang city or the Sichuan Basin area in Southwest China. In this study, demographic and epidemiological information for 14,928 probable HFMD cases was extracted and analyzed to describe the epidemic features of HFMD in Neijiang city from Jan 2010 to Dec 2017. The swab samples of select probable HFMD cases from 2012 to 2017 were tested by reverse transcription (RT) real-time PCR to identify the serotype distribution of EVs, and 110 randomly selected RT-real-time PCR positive samples were then amplified and analyzed for the VP1 or VP4 regions of EVs to further analyze the phylogenetic characteristics of the circulating strains in this area. The eight-year average annual incidence was 49.82 per 100,000 in Neijiang. The incidence rates varied between 19.51 and 70.73 per 100,000, demonstrating peaks of incidence in even-number years (2012, 2014 and 2016). The median age of the probable cases was 27 months and the interquartile range (25th to 75th percentile) of ages for the probable HFMD cases was between 14 and 42 months. The male-to-female ratio of the probable HFMD cases was 1.47:1, and scattered children were the major population classification (81.7%). Two epidemic peaks were observed: one major peak between April and July and the other lesser peak between October and December. Of 6513 probable cases tested with RT-real-time PCR, 4015 (61.6%) were positive for enterovirus with the serotype distribution as follows: EV71+, 30.1% (n = 1210); CV-A16+, 28.7% (n = 1154) and a sole pan-enterovirus+, 41.1% (n = 1651). A total of 91 cases (82.7%, 91/110) were successfully amplified and underwent phylogenetic analysis: all EV71+ cases were C4a serotype (n = 23/30); all CV-A16+ cases were B2b serotype (n = 24/30); of 42 sole pan-enterovirus+ samples, 20 were CV-A6, 14 were CV-A10 and the rest within this group were CV-A4 (n = 4), CV-A8 (n = 2), CV-A9 (n = 1) and CV-B3 (n = 1). Our findings provide important evidence that aids the improvement of strategies for vaccination against HFMD and comprehensive disease control in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lane change violations are a major cause of traffic conflicts and accidents at urban intersections and one of many road-safety issues in China. This study aims to explore the socio-psychological factors underlying drivers’ motivation for lane change violation behavior at urban intersections and examines how these factors predict this violation behavior. A self-reported questionnaire is designed by applying the construct of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to collect data. Five hundred-six valid responses are received from the questionnaire survey conducted on the Internet in China. The data are then analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM). The results of the analysis show that behavioral intention is the strongest predictor of self-reported lane change violation behavior at urban intersections. Perceived behavioral control has both direct and indirect effects on self-reported lane change violation behavior. Furthermore, attitude, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control are found to have significant correlations with drivers’ intention of lane change violations at urban intersections. The results of this study could provide a reference for designing more effective interventions to modify drivers’ lane change violation behavior at urban intersections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Leishmaniasis caused by protozoan parasite Leishmania is a neglected disease which is endemic in the northwest of China. Reptiles were considered to be the potential reservoir hosts for mammalian Leishmaniasis, and Leishmania had been detected in lizards from the epidemic area in the northwest of China. To date, few studies are focused on the natural infection of snakes with Leishmania. Methods: In this study, 15 snakes captured from 10 endemic foci in the northwest of China were detected Leishmania spp. on the base of mitochondrial cytochrome b, heat shock protein 70 gene and ribosomal internal transcribed spacer 1 regions, and identified with phylogenetic and network analyses. Result: In total, Leishmania gene was found in 7 snakes. The phylogenetic inference trees and network analysis suggests that the species identification was confirmed as Leishmania donovani, L. turanica and L. (Sauroleishmania) sp. Conclusion: Our work is the first time to investigate the natural Leishmania spp. infection of snakes in the northwest of China. Mammalian Leishmania (L. donovani and L. turanica) was discovered in snakes and the reptilian Leishmania (Sauroleishmania sp.) was closely related to the clinical strains both prompt the importance of snakes in the disease cycle. To indicate the epidemiological involvement of snakes, a wide sample size in epidemic area and the pathogenic features of reptilian Leishmania promastigotes are recommended in the future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's rapid urbanization and high traffic accident frequency have received many researchers’ attention. It is important to reveal how urban infrastructures and other risk factors affects the traffic accident frequency. A growing amount of research has examined the local risk factors impact on traffic accident frequency at certain time. Some studies considered these spatial influences but overlooked the temporal correlation/heterogeneity of traffic accidents and related risk factors. This study explores risk factors’ influence on urban traffic accidents frequency while considering both the spatial and temporal correlation/heterogeneity of traffic accidents. The study area is split into 100 equally sized rectangle traffic analysis zones (TAZs), and the urban traffic accident frequency and attributes in each TAZ are extracted. The linear regression model, spatial lag model (SLM), spatial error model (SEM) and time-fixed effects error model (T-FEEM) are established and compared respectively. The proposed methodologies are illustrated using ten-month traffic accident data from the urban area of Guiyang City, China. The results reveal that the time-fixed effects error model, which considers both spatial and temporal correlation/heterogeneity of traffic accidents, is superior to other models. More traffic accidents will happen in those TAZs that have more hospitals or schools. Moreover, hospitals have a greater influence on traffic accidents than schools. Because of the location in the margin of the city, those TAZs that have passenger stations have more traffic accidents. This study provides policy makers with more detailed characterization about the impact of related risk factors on traffic accident frequencies, and it is suggested that not only the spatial correlation/heterogeneity but also the temporal correlation/heterogeneity should be taken into account in guiding traffic accident control of urban area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: It is a daunting task to discontinue pertussis completely in China owing to its growing increase in the incidence. While basic to any formulation of prevention and control measures is early response for future epidemic trends. Discrete wavelet transform(DWT) has been emerged as a powerful tool in decomposing time series into different constituents, which facilitates better improvement in prediction accuracy. Thus we aim to integrate modeling approaches as a decision-making supportive tool for formulating health resources. Methods: We constructed a novel hybrid method based on the pertussis morbidity cases from January 2004 to May 2018 in China, where the approximations and details decomposed by DWT were forecasted by a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and nonlinear autoregressive network (NAR), respectively. Then, the obtained values were aggregated as the final results predicted by the combined model. Finally, the performance was compared with the SARIMA, NAR and traditional SARIMA-NAR techniques. Results: The hybrid technique at level 2 of db2 wavelet including a SARIMA(0,1,3)(1,0,0)12modelfor the approximation-forecasting and NAR model with 12 hidden units and 4 delays for the detail d1-forecasting, along with another NAR model with 11 hidden units and 5 delays for the detail d2-forecasting notably outperformed other wavelets, SARIMA, NAR and traditional SARIMA-NAR techniques in terms of the mean square error, root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. Descriptive statistics exhibited that a substantial rise was observed in the notifications from 2013 to 2018, and there was an apparent seasonality with summer peak. Moreover, the trend was projected to continue upwards in the near future. Conclusions: This hybrid approach has an outstanding ability to improve the prediction accuracy relative to the others, which can be of great help in the prevention of pertussis. Besides, under current trend of pertussis morbidity, it is required to urgently address strategically within the proper policy adopted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is the deadliest infectious disease globally. Current case finding approaches may miss many people with TB or detect them too late. Data and methods: This study was a retrospective, spatial analysis of routine TB surveillance and cadastral data in Go Vap district, Ho Chi Minh City. We geocoded TB notifications from 2011 to 2015 and calculated theoretical yields of simulated door-to-door screening in three concentric catchment areas (50m, 100m, 200m) and three notification window scenarios (one, two and four quarters) for each index case. We calculated average yields, compared them to published reference values and fit a GEE (Generalized Estimating Equation) linear regression model onto the data. Results: The sample included 3,046 TB patients. Adjusted theoretical yields in 50m, 100m and 200m catchment areas were 0.32% (95%CI: 0.27,0.37), 0.21% (95%CI: 0.14,0.29) and 0.17% (95%CI: 0.09,0.25), respectively, in the baseline notification window scenario. Theoretical yields in the 50m-catchment area for all notification window scenarios were significantly higher than a reference yield from literature. Yield was positively associated with treatment failure index cases (beta = 0.12, p = 0.001) and short-term inter-province migrants (beta = 0.06, p = 0.022), while greater distance to the DTU (beta = -0.02, p<0.001) was associated with lower yield. Conclusions: This study is an example of inter-departmental collaboration and application of repurposed cadastral data to progress towards the end TB objectives. The results from Go Vap showed that the use of spatial analysis may be able to identify areas where targeted active case finding in Vietnam can help improve TB case detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The genotypes of the H9N2 avian influenza viruses have changed since 2013 when almost all H9N2 viruses circulating in chickens in China were genotype 57 (G57) with the fittest lineage of each gene. To characterize the H9N2 variant viruses from 2011 to 2014, 28 H9N2 influenza viruses were isolated from live poultry markets in China from 2011–2014 and were analyzed by genetic and biological characterization. Our findings showed that 16 residues that changed antigenicity, two potential N-linked glycosylation sites, and one amino acid in the receptor binding site of the HA protein changed significantly from 2011–2014. Moreover, the HA and NA genes in the phylogenetic tree were mainly clustered into two independent branches, A and B, based on the year of isolation. H9N2 virus internal genes were related to those from the human-infected avian influenza viruses H5N1, H7N9, and H10N8. In particular, the NS gene in the phylogenetic tree revealed genetic divergence of the virus gene into three branches labeled A, B, and C, which were related to the H9N2, H10N8, and H7N9 viruses, respectively. Additionally, the isolates also showed varying levels of infection and airborne transmission. These results indicated that the H9N2 virus had undergone an adaptive evolution and variation from 2011–2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a highly infectious, zoonotic disease. Hundreds of human plague cases are reported across the world annually. Qinghai Plateau is one of the most severely affected plague regions in China, with more than 240 fatal cases of Y. pestis in the last 60 years. Conventional epidemiologic analysis has effectively guided the prevention and control of local plague transmission; however, molecular genetic analysis is more effective for investigating population diversity and transmission. In this report, we employed different genetic markers to analyze the population structure of Y. pestis in Qinghai Plateau. Methodology/Principal finding: We employed a two-step hierarchical strategy to analyze the phylogeny of 102 Qinghai Plateau isolates of Y. pestis, collected between 1954 and 2011. First, we defined the genealogy of Y. pestis by constructed minimum spanning tree based on 25 key SNPs. Seven groups were identifi7ed, with group 1.IN2 being identified as the dominant population. Second, two methods, MLVA and CRISPR, were applied to examine the phylogenetic detail of group 1.IN2, which was further divided into three subgroups. Subgroups of 1.IN2 revealed a clear geographic cluster, possibly associated with interaction between bacteriophage and Y. pestis. More recently, Y. pestis populations appear to have shifted from the east toward the center and west of Qinghai Plateau. This shift could be related to destruction of the local niche of the original plague focus through human activities. Additionally, we found that the abundance and relative proportion of 1.IN2 subgroups varied by decade and might be responsible for the fluctuations of plague epidemics in Qinghai Plateau. Conclusion/Significance: Molecular genotyping methods provided us with detailed information on population diversity and the spatial-temporal distribution of dominant populations of Y. pestis, which will facilitate future surveillance, prevention, and control of plague in Qinghai Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Substantial resources have been expended on clinical pathways (CPs), but the reported effects of CPs on medical care vary considerably. This study sought to determine the effects of CPs on medical care in Chinese hospitals, including the perceived effects of CPs on medical care and the objectively measured patient outcomes. Methods: Study data were obtained from 54 public hospitals in three provinces of China in 2015. Hospital questionnaires, employee surveys, and chart reviews were used to collect data related to hospital characteristics, the implementation of CPs and compliance status, perceived effects of CPs, and objectively measured patient outcomes. Logistic regression models and linear regression models were adopted in this study. Results: The effects of CPs were not highly perceived by the hospitals or by the managers and physicians in China. The relatively low involvement in the implementation of and adherence to CPs resulted in CPs having no significant effects on hospital medical care as a whole. However, a chart review of 5 conditions in Chinese hospitals demonstrated that compliance with national CPs reduced the length of stay (LOS) and inpatient medical costs. Conclusions: CPs should be implemented widely and followed closely to improve hospital medical care as a whole, and further studies should be conducted to identify the key elements of the effects of CPs on patient clinical outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of traffic collisions is essential for urban safety and the sustainable development of the urban environment. Reducing the road traffic injuries and the financial losses caused by collisions is the most important goal of traffic management. In addition, traffic collisions are a major cause of traffic congestion, which is a serious issue that affects everyone in the society. Therefore, traffic collision analysis is essential for all parties, including drivers, pedestrians, and traffic officers, to understand the road risks at a finer spatio-temporal scale. However, traffic collisions in the urban context are dynamic and complex. Thus, it is important to detect how the collision hotspots evolve over time through spatio-temporal clustering analysis. In addition, traffic collisions are not isolated events in space. The characteristics of the traffic collisions and their surrounding locations also present an influence of the clusters. This work tries to explore the spatio-temporal clustering patterns of traffic collisions by combining a set of network-constrained methods. These methods were tested using the traffic collision data in Jianghan District of Wuhan, China. The results demonstrated that these methods offer different perspectives of the spatio-temporal clustering patterns. The weighted network kernel density estimation provides an intuitive way to incorporate attribute information. The network cross K-function shows that there are varying clustering tendencies between traffic collisions and different types of POIs. The proposed network differential Local Moran’s I and network local indicators of mobility association provide straightforward and quantitative measures of the hotspot changes. This case study shows that these methods could help researchers, practitioners, and policy-makers to better understand the spatio-temporal clustering patterns of traffic collisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Blood collection agencies worldwide are facing ongoing and increasing medical demands for blood products. Many potential donors would search related information online before making decision of whether or not to donate blood. However, there is little knowledge of the online information and services provided by blood centers in China, despite the constantly increase of internet users. Our research investigates the number of blood centers’ official websites and their quality, and highlights the deficiencies that required future advances. Methods: Identified official websites of blood centers were scored using a newly developed evaluation instrument with 42 items concerning technical aspects, information quality, information comprehensiveness and interactive services. Scores of websites were compared between blood centers with different level (provincial vs. regional blood centers) and location (blood centers located in economically developed vs. developing region). Results: For the 253 working official websites all the 350 blood centers in China, and the mean overall score of websites was 24.7 out of 42. 79.1% websites were rated as fair (50–75% of maximum), 5.5% as good (≥75% of maximum) and 15.4% as poor(25–50% of maximum;). Websites got very low sub-scores in information quality (mean = 3.8; range 1–8; maximum = 9) and interactive services (3.3; 0–10; 10). Higher proportions of provincial (vs. regional) blood centers and economically developed (vs. developing) blood centers had official websites (p = 0.044 and p = 0.001; respectively) with better overall quality (p<0.001 and p <0.01) and better sub-scores (in all of the four sections and in technical aspects and information quality). Website overall scores was positively correlated with the number of people served by each blood center (p< 0.001) and the donation rate of each province (p = 0.046). Conclusions: This study suggests there is a need to further develop and improve official websites in China, especially for regional and inland blood centers. The poor information quality and interactive services provided by these websites is of particular concern, given the challenges in blood donor counselling and recruitment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To examine trends in HIV testing, late HIV diagnosis and associated factors among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Jiangsu province, China. Methods: Four consecutive community-based cross-sectional surveys were conducted among MSM from 2011 to 2014 in eight cities in the province. Participants were recruited from MSM venues and via the internet. HIV bio-behavioral surveys were conducted to collect demographic and behavioral data and measure HIV infection. HIV-infected participants with CD4 counts less than 350 cells/uL were defined as having a late HIV diagnosis. Chi-square trend tests were used to compare temporal changes over the years and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with late diagnosis. Results: A total of 2,441, 2,677, 2,591 and 2,610 participants were enrolled in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, respectively. Testing for HIV in the last 12 months decreased over the time period, from 59.9% to 52.5% (p<0.001). Late HIV diagnosis remained high and steady, ranging from 33.3% to 44.2% over the years with no significant change over time (p = 0.418). MSM who were older than 24 years (aOR = 1.748, p = 0.020 for 25–39 years old; aOR = 3.148, p<0.001 for 40 years old or older), were recruited via internet (aOR = 1.596, p = 0.024), and did not have an HIV test in the past 12 months (aOR = 3.385, p<0.001) were more likely to be late diagnosed. Conclusions: Our study showed a plateau in HIV testing among MSM in China, in parallel to high levels of late diagnosis. Emerging and innovative strategies such as HIV self-testing and reaching more MSM by internet, both highly acceptable to MSM in China, may reduce late diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Syphilis is prevalent among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China. Syphilis partner notification (PN) programs targeting MSM has been considered as one of effective strategies to prevention and control of the infection in the population. We examined willingness and preferences for PN among MSM to measure feasibility and optimize uptake. Methods: Participation in a syphilis PN program was measured using a factorial survey from both the perspective of the index patient and the partner. Respondents were recruited from April-July 2011 using convenience sampling at two sites—a MSM sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinic and a MSM community based organization (CBO). Respondents first evaluated three factorial survey vignettes to measure probability of participation and then an anonymous sociodemographic questionnaire. A two-level mixed linear model was fitted for the factorial survey analysis. Results: In 372 respondents with mean age (± SD) 28.5 (± 6.0) years, most were single (82.0%) and closeted gays (66.7%). The Internet was the most frequent place to search for sex. Few (31.2%) had legal names for casual partners, but most had instant messenger (86.5%) and mobile phone numbers (77.7%). The mean probability of participation in a syphilis PN program was 64.5% (± 32.4%) for index patients and 63.7% (± 32.6%) for partners. Referral of the partner to a private clinic or MSM CBO for follow-up decreased participation compared to the local Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) or public STD clinic. Conclusions: Enhanced PN services may be feasible among MSM in South China. Internet and mobile phone PN may contact partners untraceable by traditional PN. Referral of partners to the local CDC or public STD clinic may maximize PN participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hepatitis is a serious public health problem with increasing cases and property damage in Heng County. It is necessary to develop a model to predict the hepatitis epidemic that could be useful for preventing this disease. Methods: The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN) model were used to fit the incidence data from the Heng County CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention) from January 2005 to December 2012. Then, the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model was developed. The incidence data from January 2013 to December 2013 were used to validate the models. Several parameters, including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square error (MSE), were used to compare the performance among the three models. Results: The morbidity of hepatitis from Jan 2005 to Dec 2012 has seasonal variation and slightly rising trend. The ARIMA(0,1,2)(1,1,1)12 model was the most appropriate one with the residual test showing a white noise sequence. The smoothing factor of the basic GRNN model and the combined model was 1.8 and 0.07, respectively. The four parameters of the hybrid model were lower than those of the two single models in the validation. The parameters values of the GRNN model were the lowest in the fitting of the three models. Conclusions: The hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model showed better hepatitis incidence forecasting in Heng County than the single ARIMA model and the basic GRNN model. It is a potential decision-supportive tool for controlling hepatitis in Heng County. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Data from the Chinese police service suggest substantial reductions in road traffic injuries since 2002, but critics have questioned the accuracy of those data, especially considering conflicting data reported by the health department. Methods: To address the gap between police and health department data and to determine which may be more accurate, we conducted a simulation study based on the modified Smeed equation, which delineates a non-linear relation between road traffic mortality and the level of motorization in a country or region. Our goal was to simulate trends in road traffic mortality in China and compare performances in road traffic safety management between China and 13 other countries. Results: Chinese police data indicate a peak in road traffic mortalities in 2002 and a significant and a gradual decrease in population-based road traffic mortality since 2002. Health department data show the road traffic mortality peaked in 2012. In addition, police data suggest China’s road traffic mortality peaked at a much lower motorization level (0.061 motor vehicles per person) in 2002, followed by a reduction in mortality to a level comparable to that of developed countries. Simulation results based on health department data suggest high road traffic mortality, with a mortality peak in 2012 at a moderate motorization level (0.174 motor vehicles per person). Comparisons to the other 13 countries suggest the health data from China may be more valid than the police data. Conclusion: Our simulation data indicate China is still at a stage of high road traffic mortality, as suggested by health data, rather than a stage of low road traffic mortality, as suggested by police data. More efforts are needed to integrate safety into road design, improve road traffic management, improve data quality, and alter unsafe behaviors of pedestrians, drivers and passengers in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although China ratified the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control [FCTC] in 2005, the partial ban on tobacco advertising does not cover the internet. Weibo is one of the most important social media channels in China, using a format similar to its global counterpart, Twitter. The Weibo homepage is a platform to present products, brands and corporate culture. There is great potential for the tobacco industry to exploit Weibo to promote products. Methods: Seven tobacco industry Weibo accounts that each had more than 5000 fans were selected to examine the content of Weibos established by tobacco companies or their advertising agents. Results: Of the 12073 posts found on the seven accounts, 92.3% (11143) could be classified into six main themes: traditional culture, popular culture, social and business affairs, advertisement, public relations and tobacco culture. Posts under the theme of popular culture accounted for about half of total posts (49%), followed by ‘advertisement’ and ‘tobacco culture’ (both at 12%), ‘traditional culture’ and ‘public relations’ (both at 11%), and finally ‘social and business affairs’ (5%). 33% of posts included the words ‘cigarette’ or ‘smoking’ and 53% of posts included the tobacco brand name, indicating that tobacco companies carefully construct the topic and content of posts. Conclusions: Weibo is an important new online marketing tool for the Chinese tobacco industry. Tobacco industry use of Weibo to promote brands and normalize smoking subverts China's ratification of the WHO FCTC. Policy to control tobacco promotion needs reforming to address this widespread circumvention of China's tobacco advertising ban. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shigellosis is a major public health concern in China, where waterborne disease outbreaks are common. Shigellosis-containing strategies, mostly single or multiple interventions, are implemented by primary-level health departments. Systematic assessment of the effectiveness of these measures is scarce. To estimate the efficacy of commonly used intervention strategies, we developed a Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious/Asymptomatic–Recovered–Water model. No intervention was predicted to result in a total attack rate (TAR) of 90% of the affected population (95% confidence interval [CI]: 86.65–92.80) and duration of outbreak (DO) of 89 days, and the use of single-intervention strategies can be futile or even counter-productive. Prophylactics and water disinfection did not improve TAR or DO. School closure for up to 3 weeks did not help but only increased DO. Isolation alone significantly increased DO. Only antibiotics treatment could shorten the DO to 35 days with TAR unaffected. We observed that these intervention effects were additive when in combined usage under most circumstances. Combined intervention “Isolation+antibiotics+prophylactics+water disinfection” was predicted to result in the lowest TAR (41.9%, 95%CI: 36.97–47.04%) and shortest DO (28 days). Our actual Shigellosis control implementation that also included school closure for 1 week, attained comparable results and the modeling produced an epidemic curve of Shigellosis highly similar to our actual outbreak data. This lends a strong support to the reality of our model that provides a possible reference for public health professionals to evaluate their strategies towards Shigellosis control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In late March 2013, a new avian-origin influenza virus emerged in eastern China. This H7N9 subtype virus has since infected 240 people and killed 60, and has awakened global concern as a potential pandemic threat. Ecological niche modeling has seen increasing applications as a useful tool in mapping geographic potential and risk of disease transmission. Methodology/Principals: We developed two datasets based on seasonal variation in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the MODIS sensor to characterize environmental dimensions of H7N9 virus. One-third of well-documented cases was used to test robustness of models calibrated based on the remaining two-thirds, and model significance was tested using partial ROC approaches. A final niche model was calibrated using all records available. Conclusions/Significance: Central-eastern China appears to represent an area of high risk for H7N9 spread, but suitable areas were distributed more spottily in the north and only along the coast in the south; highly suitable areas also were identified in western Taiwan. Areas identified as presenting high risk for H7N9 spread tend to present consistent NDVI values through the year, whereas unsuitable areas show greater seasonal variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]