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This paper brings advances in weather data collection and modeling, and developments in socioeconomic climate microsimulations to bear on the analysis of the implications of climate change (CC) in the design of public policies to combat food insecurity. It uses new downscaled predictions of future climate in 2050, derived from three Earth System Models calibrated with a new historical weather station dataset for Peru. This climate data is used in a three-stage socioeconomic microsimulation model that includes climate risk, and deals with the endogeneity of incomes and simultaneity of expected food consumption and its variability. We estimate the impact of CC on agricultural yields, and find results consistent and fully bounded within what the global simulations literature has found, with yields falling up to 13% in some regions. However, we show that these drops (and increases) in yields translate to much smaller changes in food consumption, and also surprisingly, to very minor impacts on vulnerability to food insecurity. The document explores what explains this surprising result, showing that in addition to characteristics that are specific to Peru, there are household and market mediating mechanisms that are available in all countries, which explain how changes in yields, and corresponding farm incomes have a reduced impact in vulnerability to food insecurity. Finally, in light of these findings, we explore which policies might have greater impact in reducing food insecurity in contexts of hunger prevalence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Management of camelids in the coastal valleys of the Andes has generated much debate in recent years. Zooarchaeological and isotopic studies have demonstrated that in the coastal valleys of northern and southern Peru there were locally maintained camelid herds. Because of the hyperarid conditions of the northern coast of Chile, this region has been assumed to be unsuitable for the raising of camelids. In this study we report stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions of camelid bone collagen and textiles made from camelid fiber from Late Intermediate Period (LIP) and Late Horizon (LH) occupations in northern Chilean river valleys. The camelid bone collagen isotopic compositions are consistent with these animals originating in the highlands, although there is a significant difference in the camelids dating to the LIP and LH, possibly because of changes made to distribution and exchange networks by the Inca in the LH. There were no differences between the isotopic compositions of the camelid fibers sampled from textiles in the LIP and LH, suggesting that either the production of camelid fiber was unchanged by the Inca or the changes that were made do not present visible isotopic evidence. Several camelid fiber samples from both the LIP and LH present very high δ13C and δ15N values, comparable to human hair samples from one site (Huancarane) in the Camarones Valley. These data suggest that people in the northern valleys of Chile may have kept small numbers of animals specifically for fiber production. Overall, however, the vast majority of the textile samples have isotopic compositions that are consistent with an origin in the highlands. These data suggest that the hyperarid coastal river valleys of northern Chile did not support substantial camelid herds as has been interpreted for northern Peru. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the eastern Pacific Ocean, the tropical tuna purse-seine fishery incidentally captures high numbers of five mobulid bycatch species; all of which are classified as mortalities by the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission due to uncertainties in post-release mortality rates. To date, the factors (operational or environmental) leading to the capture of these species by the fishery have not been well studied. Here, we developed Generalized Additive Models for fisheries observer data to analyze the relationships between the presence/absence of Mobula mobular bycatch and oceanographic conditions, the spatial and temporal variability in fishing location, and the set type (associated with dolphins, free-swimming tuna schools or floating objects). Our results suggest that chlorophyll concentration and sea surface height are the most important variables to describe the presence of M. mobular in conjunction with geographic location (latitude and longitude) and set type. Presence of the species was predicted in waters with chlorophyll concentrations between 0.5–1 mg·m-3 and with sea surface height values close to 0; which indicates direct relationships with productive upwelling systems. Seasonally, M. mobular was observed more frequently during December-January and August-September. We also found the highest probability of presence observed in School sets, followed by Dolphin sets. Three areas were observed as important hotspots: the area close to the coastal upwelling of northern Peru, the area west to Islands Colon Archipelago (Galapagos) and the area close to the Costa Rica Dome. This information is crucial to identify the mobulids habitat and hotspots that could be managed and protected under dynamic spatial management measures to reduce the mortality of mobulid rays in the eastern Pacific purse-seine fishery and, hence, ensure the sustainability of the populations of these iconic species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food consumption accounts for an important proportion of the world GHG emissions per capita. Previous studies have delved into the nature of dietary patterns, showing that GHG reductions can be achieved in diets if certain foods are consumed rather than other, more GHG intensive products. For instance, vegetarian and low-meat diets have proved to be less carbon intensive than diets that are based on ruminant meat. These environmental patterns, increasingly analyzed in developed nations, are yet to be assessed in countries liked Peru where food purchase represents a relatively high percentage of the average household expenditure, ranging from 38% to 51% of the same. Therefore, food consumption can be identified as a potential way to reduce GHG emissions in Peru. However, the Peruvian government lacks a specific strategy to mitigate emissions in this sector, despite the recent ratification of the Paris Accord. In view of this, the main objective of this study is to analyze the environmental impacts of a set of 47 Peruvian food diet profiles, including geographical and socioeconomic scenarios. In order to do this, Life Cycle Assessment was used as the methodological framework to obtain the overall impacts of the components in the dietary patterns observed and primary data linked to the composition of diets were collected from the Peruvian National Institute for Statistics (INEI). Life cycle inventories for the different products that are part of the Peruvian diet were obtained from a set of previous scientific articles and reports regarding food production. Results were computed using the IPCC 2013 assessment method to estimate GHG emissions. Despite variations in GHG emissions from a geographical perspective, no significant differences were observed between cities located in the three Peruvian natural regions (i.e., coast, Andes and Amazon basin). In contrast, there appears to be a strong, positive correlation between GHG emissions and social expenditure or academic status. When compared to GHG emissions computed in the literature for developed nations, where the average caloric intake is substantially higher, diet-related emissions in Peru were in the low range. Our results could be used as a baseline for policy support to align nutritional and health policies in Peru with the need to reduce the environmental impacts linked to food production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dengue is an arthropod-borne virus of great public health importance, and control of its mosquito vectors is currently the only available method for prevention. Previous research has suggested that insecticide treated curtains (ITCs) can lower dengue vector infestations in houses. This observational study investigated individual and household-level socio-demographic factors associated with correct and consistent use of ITCs in Iquitos, Peru. A baseline knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) survey was administered to 1,333 study participants, and ITCs were then distributed to 593 households as part of a cluster-randomized trial. Follow up KAP surveys and ITC-monitoring checklists were conducted at 9, 18, and 27 months post-ITC distribution. At 9 months post-distribution, almost 70% of ITCs were hanging properly (e.g. hanging fully extended or tied up), particularly those hung on walls compared to other locations. Proper ITC hanging dropped at 18 months to 45.7%. The odds of hanging ITCs correctly and consistently were significantly greater among those participants who were housewives, knew three or more correct symptoms of dengue and at least one correct treatment for dengue, knew a relative or close friend who had had dengue, had children sleeping under a mosquito net, or perceived a change in the amount of mosquitoes in the home. Additionally, the odds of recommending ITCs in the future were significantly greater among those who perceived a change in the amount of mosquitoes in the home (e.g. perceived the ITCs to be effective). Despite various challenges associated with the sustained effectiveness of the selected ITCs, almost half of the ITCs were still hanging at 18 months, suggesting a feasible vector control strategy for sustained community use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Relative to plant-based foods, animal source foods (ASFs) are richer in accessible protein, iron, zinc, calcium, vitamin B-12 and other nutrients. Because of their nutritional value, particularly for childhood growth and nutrition, it is important to identify factors influencing ASF consumption, especially for poorer households that generally consume less ASFs. Objective: To estimate differential responsiveness of ASF consumption to changes in total household expenditures for households with different expenditures in a middle-income country with substantial recent income increases. Methods: The Peruvian Young Lives household panel (n = 1750) from 2002, 2006 and 2009 was used to characterize patterns of ASF expenditures. Multivariate models with controls for unobserved household fixed effects and common secular trends were used to examine nonlinear relationships between changes in household expenditures and in ASF expenditures. Results: Households with lower total expenditures dedicated greater percentages of expenditures to food (58.4% vs.17.9% in 2002 and 24.2% vs. 21.5% in 2009 for lowest and highest quintiles respectively) and lower percentages of food expenditures to ASF (22.8% vs. 33.9% in 2002 and 30.3% vs. 37.6% in 2009 for lowest and highest quintiles respectively). Average percentages of overall expenditures spent on food dropped from 47% to 23.2% between 2002 and 2009. Households in the lowest quintiles of expenditures showed greater increases in ASF expenditures relative to total consumption than households in the highest quintiles. Among ASF components, meat and poultry expenditures increased more than proportionately for households in the lowest quintiles, and eggs and fish expenditures increased less than proportionately for all households. Conclusions: Increases in household expenditures were associated with substantial increases in consumption of ASFs for households, particularly households with lower total expenditures. Increases in ASF expenditures for all but the top quintile of households were proportionately greater than increases in total food expenditures, and proportionately less than overall expenditures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Llama (Lama glama) and alpaca (Vicugna pacos) are the only large domesticated animals indigenous to the Americas. Pastoralism occupies a fundamental economic, social and religious role in Andean life. Today, camelid livestock are confined to the ecozone of the puna (above 3,500 masl), while their presence on the Pacific coast during pre-Hispanic times is attested by archaeological skeletal remains. This study aims to document herding practices on the northern Peruvian coast during the Early Intermediate Period (200 BC-600 AD) by gaining insights into diet, location of breeding and mobility of archaeological camelids from the funerary and ritual contexts of two Mochica sites, Uhle Platform in Huacas de Moche and El Brujo. The three first early years and the long-term life histories of the animals were documented by the combined bulk analysis of bone collagen (δ13Ccol and δ15Ncol) and bone structural carbonate (δ13Cbone and δ18Obone) and the serial analysis of structural carbonate of molar tooth enamel (δ13Cenamel and δ18Oenamel). Mochica camelids were bred in the low and/or middle valleys, unlike their modern counterparts, who are restricted to highland puna C3 pastures. Archaeological camelids had diverse and complex life histories, usually with substantial maize foddering. An ontogenetic switch in diet and possible residential mobility during the course of life were identified for some specimens. Although the inference of geographic origin from δ18Obone and δ18Oenamel values was limited because of the lack of understanding of the influence of environmental and biological factors, tooth enamel analysis has great potential for exploring camelid herding practices and Andean pastoralism. Our study suggested that Mochica herders adapted their practices to the difficult lowland environment and that herding practices were varied and not restricted to breeding at higher altitudes. The role of maize in different aspects of the economic life of the Mochicas is also underlined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Annual revenue flow to developing countries for ecotourism (or nature-based tourism) could be as large as US$ 210×1012, providing an enormous financial incentive against habitat loss and exploitation. However, is ecotourism the most privately and/or socially valuable use of rainforest land? The question is rarely answered because the relevant data, estimates of profits and fixed costs, are rarely available. We present a social cost-benefit analysis of land use in an ecotourism cluster in the Tambopata region of Amazonian Peru. The net present value of ecotourism-controlled land is given by the producer surplus (profits plus fixed costs of ecotourism lodges): US$ 1,158 ha-1, which is higher than all currently practiced alternatives, including unsustainable logging, ranching, and agriculture. To our knowledge, this is the first sector-wide study of profitability and producer surplus in a developing-country ecotourism sector and the first to compare against equivalent measures for a spectrum of alternative uses. We also find that ecotourism-controlled land sequesters between 5.3 to 8.7 million tons of above-ground carbon, which is equivalent to between 3000-5000 years of carbon emissions from the domestic component of air and surface travel between the gateway city of Cusco and the lodges, at 2005 emission rates. Ecotourism in Tambopata has successfully monetized the hedonic value of wild nature in Amazonian Peru, and justifies the maintenance of intact rainforest over all alternative uses on narrow economic grounds alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]