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Objective: To compare expert assessment with bibliometric indicators as tools to assess the quality and importance of scientific research papers. Methods and Materials: Shortly after their publication in 2005, the quality and importance of a cohort of nearly 700 Wellcome Trust (WT) associated research papers were assessed by expert reviewers; each paper was reviewed by two WT expert reviewers. After 3 years, we compared this initial assessment with other measures of paper impact. Results: Shortly after publication, 62 (9%) of the 687 research papers were determined to describe at least a 'major addition to knowledge' -6 were thought to be 'landmark' papers. At an aggregate level, after 3 years, there was a strong positive association between expert assessment and impact as measured by number of citations and F1000 rating. However, there were some important exceptions indicating that bibliometric measures may not be sufficient in isolation as measures of research quality and importance, and especially not for assessing single papers or small groups of research publications. Conclusion: When attempting to assess the quality and importance of research papers, we found that sole reliance on bibliometric indicators would have led us to miss papers containing important results as judged by expert review. In particular, some papers that were highly rated by experts were not highly cited during the first three years after publication. Tools that link expert peer reviews of research paper quality and importance to more quantitative indicators, such as citation analysis would be valuable additions to the field of research assessment and evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explored the effectiveness of ensemble performance on the development of adolescent's life skills. An explorative qualitative study investigated young musicians' self-perception about the benefits and challenges of learning and playing music together. A convenience sampling technique was adopted for interviewing 15 adolescents (12–18 years old) who participated in a long-term music education programme led by a charity in the North-West of England. The data were analysed using NVivo, employing a thematic analysis approach. Two main themes emerged from the analyses: (1) the main benefits of playing and learning in an ensemble: the development of music and life skills; (2) the challenges experienced by the musicians learning in the ensemble. The findings suggest that participants were conscious of the positive effects of playing in an ensemble on their lives. This extended beyond merely learning a musical instrument, i.e. acquiring music skills. In particular, young musicians recognised they had developed greater self-confidence and cognitive skills such as critical thinking and self-awareness. Primarily, they developed effective communication and interpersonal skills. At the same time, these young musicians recognised they had to face challenges related to the process of learning music in an ensemble, such as managing emotions of frustration and adapting to different music learning styles and techniques. Finally, suggestions are made for the implementation and evaluation of future projects to explore the impact and effectiveness of classical music programmes, with a particular emphasis on ensemble-based initiatives and their influence on life skills. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Childhood, adolescent and young adult (CAYA) cancer survivors are vulnerable to adverse late-effects. For CAYA cancer survivors, tobacco smoking is the most important preventable cause of ill-health and early death. Yet, effective strategies to support smoking cessation in this group are lacking. The PRISM study aims to undertake multi-method formative research to explore the need for, and if appropriate, inform the future development of an evidence-based and theory-informed tobacco smoking cessation intervention for CAYA cancer survivors. Materials and methods: PRISM involves three phases of: 1) an environmental scan using multiple strategies to identify and examine a) smoking cessation interventions for CAYA cancer survivors that are published in the international literature and b) current smoking cessation services in England that may be available to, or tailorable to, CAYA cancer survivors; 2) a qualitative study involving semi-structured interviews with CAYA cancer survivors (aged 16–29 years and who are current or recent ex-smokers and/or current vapers) to explore their views and experiences of smoking, smoking cessation and vaping; and 3) stakeholder workshops with survivors, healthcare professionals and other stakeholders to consider the potential for a smoking cessation intervention for CAYA cancer survivors and what such an intervention would need to target and change. Findings will be disseminated to patient groups, healthcare professionals and researchers, through conference presentations, journal papers, plain English summaries and social media. Discussion: PRISM will explore current delivery of, perceived need for, and barriers and facilitators to, smoking cessation advice and support to CAYA cancer survivors from the perspective of both survivors and healthcare professionals. A key strength of PRISM is the user involvement throughout the study and the additional exploration of survivors' views on vaping, a behaviour which often co-occurs with smoking. PRISM is the first step in the development of a person-centred, evidence- and theory-based smoking cessation intervention for CAYA cancer survivors who smoke, which if effective, will reduce morbidity and mortality in the CAYA cancer survivor population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The aim of this paper is to investigate what factors are associated to cardiovascular disease and what differences exists between Asians living in the UK (from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing) and the Asians living in India (from the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India). Methods: Logistic regression was used to investigate how demographic and physical performance factors were associated with cardiovascular disease using data from Wave 6 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and Wave 1 of the Longitudinal Study of Ageing in India, with the main variable of interest being country of residence, Asians in England or Asians in India. Results: A total of 83,997 participants were included in the analyses. In the primary analysis, 73,396 participants from LASI were compared to 171 Asians in ELSA. After adjusting for age, blood pressure, resting heart rate, sex, waist circumference, gait, handgrip strength and standing balance, there was a statistically significant difference for the outcome of CVD between Whites ELSA (reference) and the participants of LASI (odds ratio = 0.77; 95% confidence interval = 0.60 to 0.99). There were no significant differences in CVD between the LASI participants, Asian ELSA, and the Non-White but not Asian ELSA groups. Discussion: No difference was found between Asians that live in India compared to ethnic minorities living in England, including Asians, after adjusting for confounders, but was found between Whites in ELSA compared to LASI participants. A key limitation was the massive disparity in sample sizes between the ELSA subgroups and LASI. Further work is required where comparable sample sizes and longitudinal analyses allow trends to be identified and to investigate the factors associated with the difference in CVD between two similar ethnicities living in distinct locations. Conclusion: After adjusting for risk factors, there was no difference in CVD between localised Asians and the ethnic minorities in the UK, but there was a difference between the majority ethnicities in the respective countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although both the analysis of regional culture and urbanisation are long-standing preoccupations in geography, few studies have considered the relationship between the two, the former traditionally being a topic in cultural geography, while the latter is usually interpreted and analysed as a process in economic geography. Taking evidence from the 1851–1911 censuses of England and Wales, this article analyses individual migration paths to identify stable regions of human interaction by applying a sophisticated community-detection algorithm. By accurately mapping the regions within which the majority of migration occurred between 1851 and 1911 and arguing that the stability of these geographies is evidence of more than just mutable communities but rather of persistent regional cultures, this article responds to previous studies that have sought to identify the cultural provinces of England and Wales. Indeed, by demonstrating that the regions bear a striking resemblance to those that have long been hypothesised as being distinct cultural provinces of England and Wales, this article empirically corroborates their existence. In order to further demonstrate that the regions constitute cultural provinces, this paper incorporates these boundaries into a spatial interaction model (SIM). The results of the SIM not only shows that the boundaries between the regions limited the number of migrants that crossed them–over and above that explained by control variables–and therefore represented the boundaries of cultural provinces, demarcating discrete regions of human interaction–but that such boundaries disproportionately restricted rural-urban migrants, thereby slowing the pace at which England and Wales urbanised. This paper therefore demonstrates that urbanisation should not only be interpreted as only an economic phenomenon, but a cultural one also, and that if urbanisation is to be fully understood, individuals' attachment to place as a component of their identity, ought to be formally incorporated into models of migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prevalence of dyslexia identification has increased significantly over the last two decades. Yet there is debate over whether there are distinct biological and cognitive differences between those with literacy difficulties and the subgroup of people identified as dyslexic. This is the first paper that provides evidence for this ongoing debate by investigating the socio-demographic factors, outside biology and cognition, that predict whether a child is identified as dyslexic in the UK. Using secondary data from the UK's Millennium Cohort Study, this paper examines the socio-demographic factors that predict whether a child's teacher identifies them as dyslexic at age 11. Gender, season of birth, socio-economic class and parental income are found to be significant predictors of the dyslexia label. Therefore, factors seemingly unrelated to the clinical aspects of dyslexia influence whether a child is identified as dyslexic in England and Wales. This suggests that label may not be evenly distributed across a population; furthermore, it may also indicate that resources for support may not be fairly allocated. The findings further support the argument that a 'dyslexic sub-group' within poor readers is created due to the impact of environmental factors. The results from this national-scale study thus questions the reliability, validity and moral integrity of the allocation of the dyslexia label across current education systems in the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Specialist sexual assault services, which collect forensic evidence and offer holistic healthcare to people following sexual assault, have been established internationally. In England, these services are called sexual assault referral centres (SARCs). Mental health and substance misuse problems are common among SARC attendees, but little is known about how SARCs should address these needs. This review aims to seek and synthesise evidence regarding approaches to identification and support for mental health and substance misuse problems in SARCs and corresponding services internationally; empirical evidence regarding effective service models; and stakeholders' views and policy recommendations about optimal SARC practice. Methods: A systematic review was undertaken. PsycINFO, MEDLINE, IBSS and CINAHL were searched from 1975 to August 2018. A web-based search up to December 2018 was also conducted to identify government and expert guidelines on SARCs. Quality assessment and narrative synthesis were conducted. Results: We included 107 papers. We found that identification based on clinical judgement, supportive counselling and referral to other services without active follow-up were the most common approaches. Evaluations of interventions for post-rape psychopathology in attendees of sexual assault services provided mixed evidence of moderate quality. Very little evidence was found regarding interventions or support for substance misuse. Stakeholders emphasised the importance of accessibility, flexibility, continuity of care, in-house psychological support, staff trained in mental health as well as specialist support for LGBT groups and people with learning difficulties. Guidelines suggested that SARCs should assess for mental health and substance misuse and provide in-house emotional support, but the extent and nature of support were not clarified. Both stakeholders and guidelines recommended close partnership between sexual assault services and local counselling services. Conclusions: This review suggests that there is big variation in the mental health and substance misuse provision both across and within different sexual assault service models. We found no robust evidence about how sexual assault services can achieve good mental health and substance misuse outcomes for service users. Clearer guidance for service planners and commissioners, informed by robust evidence about optimal service organisations and pathways, is required. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42018119706 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The need to improve the quality of community mental health services for people with Complex Emotional Needs (CEN) (who may have a diagnosis of 'personality disorder') is recognised internationally and has become a renewed policy priority in England. Such improvement requires positive engagement from clinicians across the service system, and their perspectives on achieving good practice need to be understood. Aim: To synthesise qualitative evidence on clinician perspectives on what constitutes good practice, and what helps or prevents it being achieved, in community mental health services for people with CEN. Methods: Six bibliographic databases were searched for studies published since 2003 and supplementary citation tracking was conducted. Studies that used any recognised qualitative method and reported clinician experiences and perspectives on community-based mental health services for adults with CEN were eligible for this review, including generic and specialist settings. Meta-synthesis was used to generate and synthesise over-arching themes across included studies. Results: Twenty-nine papers were eligible for inclusion, most with samples given a 'personality disorder' diagnosis. Six over-arching themes were identified: 1. The use and misuse of diagnosis; 2. The patient journey into services: nowhere to go; 3. Therapeutic relationships: connection and distance; 4. The nature of treatment: not doing too much or too little; 5. Managing safety issues and crises: being measured and proactive; 6. Clinician and wider service needs: whose needs are they anyway? The overall quality of the evidence was moderate. Discussion: Through summarising the literature on clinician perspectives on good practice for people with CEN, over-arching priorities were identified on which there appears to be substantial consensus. In their focus on needs such as for a long-term perspective on treatment journeys, high quality and consistent therapeutic relationships, and a balanced approach to safety, clinician priorities are mainly congruent with those found in studies on service user views. They also identify clinician needs that should be met for good care to be provided, including for supervision, joint working and organisational support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Obesity and rapid weight gain are established risk factors for noncommunicable diseases and have emerged as independent risk factors for severe disease following Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. Restrictions imposed to reduce COVID-19 transmission resulted in profound societal changes that impacted many health behaviours, including physical activity and nutrition, associated with rate of weight gain. We investigated which clinical and sociodemographic characteristics were associated with rapid weight gain and the greatest acceleration in rate of weight gain during the pandemic among adults registered with an English National Health Service (NHS) general practitioner (GP) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods and findings: With the approval of NHS England, we used the OpenSAFELY platform inside TPP to conduct an observational cohort study of routinely collected electronic healthcare records. We investigated changes in body mass index (BMI) values recorded in English primary care between March 2015 and March 2022. We extracted data on 17,742,365 adults aged 18 to 90 years old (50.1% female, 76.1% white British) registered with an English primary care practice. We estimated individual rates of weight gain before (δ-prepandemic) and during (δ-pandemic) the pandemic and identified individuals with rapid weight gain (>0.5 kg/m2/year) in each period. We also estimated the change in rate of weight gain between the prepandemic and pandemic period (δ-change = δ-pandemic—δ-prepandemic) and defined extreme accelerators as the 10% of individuals with the greatest increase in their rate of weight gain (δ-change ≥1.84 kg/m2/year) between these periods. We estimated associations with these outcomes using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, index of multiple deprivation (IMD), and ethnicity. P-values were generated in regression models. The median BMI of our study population was 27.8 kg/m2, interquartile range (IQR) [24.3, 32.1] in 2019 (March 2019 to February 2020) and 28.0 kg/m2, IQR [24.4, 32.6] in 2021. Rapid pandemic weight gain was associated with sex, age, and IMD. Male sex (male versus female: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) [0.76, 0.76], p < 0.001), older age (e.g., 50 to 59 years versus 18 to 29 years: aOR 0.60, 95% CI [0.60, 0.61], p < 0.001]); and living in less deprived areas (least-deprived-IMD-quintile versus most-deprived: aOR 0.77, 95% CI [0.77, 0.78] p < 0.001) reduced the odds of rapid weight gain. Compared to white British individuals, all other ethnicities had lower odds of rapid pandemic weight gain (e.g., Indian versus white British: aOR 0.69, 95% CI [0.68, 0.70], p < 0.001). Long-term conditions (LTCs) increased the odds, with mental health conditions having the greatest effect (e.g., depression (aOR 1.18, 95% CI [1.17, 1.18], p < 0.001)). Similar characteristics increased odds of extreme acceleration in the rate of weight gain between the prepandemic and pandemic periods. However, changes in healthcare activity during the pandemic may have introduced new bias to the data. Conclusions: We found female sex, younger age, deprivation, white British ethnicity, and mental health conditions were associated with rapid pandemic weight gain and extreme acceleration in rate of weight gain between the prepandemic and pandemic periods. Our findings highlight the need to incorporate sociodemographic, physical, and mental health characteristics when formulating research, policies, and interventions targeting BMI in the period of post pandemic service restoration and in future pandemic planning. Miriam Samuel and team analyzed health records of 17 million adults in England, examining patterns of weight change before and during COVID-19 and identifying groups most prone to rapid weight gain. Author summary: Why was this study done?: Restrictions imposed during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have led to lifestyle changes that are associated with weight gain. Some studies have suggested that women, younger adults (18 to 29 years), and those living in more deprived areas were at greatest risk of weight gain during the pandemic, but these were limited by small sample size. There are currently no large-scale analyses of how the pandemic impacted preexisting patterns of weight gain, and how this varied by sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. What did the researchers do and find?: We used data from the routinely collected health records of 17 million adults living in England to investigate patterns of weight change before and during the pandemic and describe which groups were most likely to have experienced unhealthy patterns of weight gain. We found that, among adults with measures of weight recorded in their healthcare records, women, younger adults (18 to 29 years), those living in the most deprived areas, and those of white British ethnicity were most likely to have gained weight rapidly before and during the pandemic. The same groups were also most likely to have experienced extreme acceleration in their rate of weight gain during the pandemic. Almost all the long-term conditions (LTCs) increased the risk of unhealthy patterns of weight gain, with mental health conditions, such as depression, having the greatest estimated effect. What do these findings mean?: The COVID-19 pandemic appears to have had the greatest impact on women, young adults, and those living in the most deprived areas in terms of unhealthy patterns of weight gain. We present, to our knowledge, new evidence that people with mental health conditions were more likely to have unhealthy patterns of weight gain during the pandemic, highlighting the need to consider sociodemographic, physical, and mental health characteristics in research, policies, and interventions around weight. We recommend that future pandemic planning should consider how to mitigate the unequal indirect impact of a pandemic on patterns of weight gain to prevent preexisting health inequalities being further exacerbated. Changes in healthcare activity during the pandemic affected patterns of weight monitoring in primary care, which may have introduced new bias to the analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pragmatic challenges remain in the monitoring and return to play (RTP) decisions following suspected Sports Related Concussion (SRC). Reliance on traditional approaches (pen and paper) means players readiness for RTP is often based on self-reported symptom recognition as a marker for full physiological recovery. Non-digital approaches also limit opportunity for robust data analysis which may hinder understanding of the interconnected nature and relationships in deficit recovery. Digital approaches may provide more objectivity to measure and monitor impairments in SRC. Crucially, there is dearth of protocols for SRC assessment and digital devices have yet to be tested concurrently (multimodal) in SRC rugby union assessment. Here we propose a multimodal protocol for digital assessment in SRC, which could be used to enhance traditional sports concussion assessment approaches. Methods: We aim to use a repeated measures observational study utilising a battery of multimodal assessment tools (symptom, cognitive, visual, motor). We aim to recruit 200 rugby players (male n≈100 and female n≈100) from University Rugby Union teams and local amateur rugby clubs in the North East of England. The multimodal battery assessment used in this study will compare metrics between digital methods and against traditional assessment. Conclusion: This paper outlines a protocol for a multimodal approach for the use of digital technologies to augment traditional approaches to SRC, which may better inform RTP in rugby union. Findings may shed light on new ways of working with digital tools in SRC. Multimodal approaches may enhance understanding of the interconnected nature of impairments and provide insightful, more objective assessment and RTP in SRC. Clinical trial registration: NCT04938570. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=NCT04938570&term=&cntry=&state=&city=&dist= [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detail is a double edged sword in epidemiological modelling. The inclusion of mechanistic detail in models of highly complex systems has the potential to increase realism, but it also increases the number of modelling assumptions, which become harder to check as their possible interactions multiply. In a major study of the Covid-19 epidemic in England, Knock et al. (2020) fit an age structured SEIR model with added health service compartments to data on deaths, hospitalization and test results from Covid-19 in seven English regions for the period March to December 2020. The simplest version of the model has 684 states per region. One main conclusion is that only full lockdowns brought the pathogen reproduction number, R, below one, with R ≫ 1 in all regions on the eve of March 2020 lockdown. We critically evaluate the Knock et al. epidemiological model, and the semi-causal conclusions made using it, based on an independent reimplementation of the model designed to allow relaxation of some of its strong assumptions. In particular, Knock et al. model the effect on transmission of both non-pharmaceutical interventions and other effects, such as weather, using a piecewise linear function, b(t), with 12 breakpoints at selected government announcement or intervention dates. We replace this representation by a smoothing spline with time varying smoothness, thereby allowing the form of b(t) to be substantially more data driven, and we check that the corresponding smoothness assumption is not driving our results. We also reset the mean incubation time and time from first symptoms to hospitalisation, used in the model, to values implied by the papers cited by Knock et al. as the source of these quantities. We conclude that there is no sound basis for using the Knock et al. model and their analysis to make counterfactual statements about the number of deaths that would have occurred with different lockdown timings. However, if fits of this epidemiological model structure are viewed as a reasonable basis for inference about the time course of incidence and R, then without very strong modelling assumptions, the pathogen reproduction number was probably below one, and incidence in substantial decline, some days before either of the first two English national lockdowns. This result coincides with that obtained by more direct attempts to reconstruct incidence. Of course it does not imply that lockdowns had no effect, but it does suggest that other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may have been much more effective than Knock et al. imply, and that full lockdowns were probably not the cause of R dropping below one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Many people with chronic pain cannot work, while working despite chronic pain is linked to absenteeism and presenteeism and a host of other deleterious effects. This disproportionately affects older adults, who are closer to retirement, while the exact relationship between pain and work cessation as well as retirement among older adults is not known. We explore longitudinally the relationship between chronic pain and the risk of ceasing work and entering retirement. Methods: Data from 1156 individuals 50 years or older living in England taking part in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing were used in this study. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to examine the nature of the relationship between musculoskeletal pain and work cessation as well as retirement longitudinally over the course of fourteen years. Results: Suffering from frequent musculoskeletal pain was associated with an increased risk of ceasing work and retiring at an earlier age, as did work dissatisfaction, higher perceived social status, female gender, and not receiving the recognition they felt they deserved in their job. Severity of depressive symptoms, psychosocial job demands, decision authority, and social support did not influence the age at which participants reported work cessation or retirement. Conclusions: Frequent musculoskeletal pain may increase the risk of earlier work exit and earlier retirement. Further research should establish the mechanisms and decision making involved in leaving the workforce in people with frequent musculoskeletal pain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Stroke early supported discharge (ESD) involves the co-ordinated transfer of care from hospital to home. The quality of communication processes between professionals delivering ESD and external stakeholders may have a role to play in streamlining this process. We explored how communication and information exchange were achieved and influenced the hospital-to-home transition and the delivery quality of ESD, from healthcare professionals' perspectives. Methods: Six ESD case study sites in England were purposively selected. Under a realist approach, we conducted interviews and focus groups with 117 staff members, including a cross-section of the multidisciplinary team, service managers and commissioners. Results: Great variation was observed between services in the type of communication processes they employed and how organised these efforts were. Effective communication between ESD team members and external stakeholders was identified as a key mechanism driving the development of collaborative and trusting relationships and promoting coordinated care transitions. Cross-boundary working arrangements with inpatient services helped clarify the role and remit of ESD, contributing to timely hospital discharge and response from ESD teams. Staff perceived honest and individualised information provision as key to effectively prepare stroke survivors and families for care transitions and promote rehabilitation engagement. In designing and implementing ESD, early stakeholder involvement ensured the services' fit in the local pathway and laid the foundations for communication and partnership working going forward. Conclusions: Findings highlighted the interdependency between services delivering ESD and local stroke care pathways. Maintaining good communication and engagement with key stakeholders may help achieve a streamlined hospital discharge process and timely delivery of ESD. ESD services should actively manage communication processes with external partners. A shared cross-service communication strategy to guide the provision of information along to continuum of stroke care is required. Findings may inform efforts towards the delivery of better coordinated stroke care pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Delivering care to growing numbers of patients with increasingly 'complex' needs is currently compromised by a system designed to treat patients within organizational clinical specialties, making this difficult to reconfigure to fit care to needs. Problematic experiences of people with cognitive impairment(s) admitted to hospitals with a hip fracture, exemplify the complex challenges that result if their care is not tailored. This study explored whether a flexible, multicomponent intervention, adapting services to the needs of this patient group, could be implemented in acute hospital settings. Methods: We used action research with case study design to introduce the intervention using a Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA) model to three different hospital sites (cases) across England. The qualitative data for this paper was researcher-generated (notes from observations and teleconference meetings) and change agent-generated (action plans and weekly reflective reports of change agents' activities). Normalization Process Theory (NPT) was used to analyze and explain the work of interacting actors in implementing and then normalizing (embedding) the intervention across contexts and times. Data analysis was abductive, generating inductive codes then identified with NPT constructs. Across the three cases, change agents had to work through numerous implementation challenges: needing to make sense of the intervention package, the PDSA model as implementation method, and their own role as change agents and to orientate these within their action context (coherence). They had to work to encourage colleagues to invest in these changes (cognitive participation) and find ways to implement the intervention by mobilising changes (collective action). Finally, they created strategies for clinical routines to continue to self-review, reconfiguring actions and future plans to enable the intervention to be sustained (reflexive monitoring). Conclusions: Successful implementation of the (PERFECT-ER) intervention requires change agents to recognize and engage with local values, and then to enable its fit with practice and wider contextual goals. A context of constant change fragments normalization. Thus, sustaining practice change over time is fragile and requires change agents to continue a recursive two-way sense-making process. This enables implementation and normalization to re-energize and overcome barriers to change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With increasing costs of healthcare in England and Wales following the COVID-19 pandemic, finding alternatives to traditional medical interventions is more important than ever. Social prescribing provides a way of addressing health and well-being through using non-medical methods that may help relieve costs to the NHS. Evaluating interventions, such as social prescribing, which have high social (but not easily quantifiable) value, can be problematic. Social return on investment (SROI) is a method of assigning monetary values to both social value as well as traditional assets, so provides a way of evaluating social prescribing initiatives. This protocol outlines the steps that will be taken in a systematic review of the SROI literature surrounding social prescribing-type integrated health and social care interventions based in the community in England and Wales. Online academic databases such as PubMed Central, ASSIA and Web of Science will be searched, as will grey literature sources such as Google Scholar, the Wales School for Social Prescribing Research (WSSPR) and Social Value UK. Titles and abstracts from the articles returned by the searches will be reviewed by one researcher. Those selected for full text review will be independently reviewed and compared by two researchers. Where the researchers disagree a third reviewer will help resolve any differences. Information collected will include identifying stakeholder groups, assessing the quality of SROI analyses, identifying intended and unintended changes of social prescribing interventions, and comparing social prescribing initiatives in terms of SROI costs and benefits. Quality assessment will be independently conducted on the selected papers by two researchers. The researchers will discuss to obtain consensus. Where there is disagreement, a third researcher will resolve these cases. A pre-existing quality framework will be developed and used to assess the quality of the literature. Protocol registration Prospero registration number:CRD42022318911. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims and objectives: This paper aims to improve understanding of factors that contribute to persistent ethnic disparities in patient satisfaction in England. The specific objectives are to (i) examine ethnic differences in patient satisfaction with their primary care in England; and (ii) establish factors that contribute to ethnic differences in patient satisfaction. Data and methods: The study is based on secondary analysis of recent General Practitioner Patient Survey (GPPS) datasets of 2019, 2020 and 2021. Descriptive bivariate analysis was used to examine ethnic differences in patient satisfaction across the three years. This was followed with multilevel linear regression, with General Practice (GP) at level-1 and Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) at level-2 to identify factors contributing to ethnic differences in patient satisfaction. Results: The findings show consistent negative correlations between the proportion of patients reporting good (very or fairly good) overall experience and each of the ethnic minority groups. Further examination of the distribution of patient satisfaction by ethnicity, based on combined ethnic minority groups, depicted a clear negative association between ethnic minority group and patient satisfaction at both GP and CCG levels. Multilevel regression analysis identified several service-related factors (especially ease of using GP website and being treated with care and concern) that largely explained the ethnic differences in patient satisfaction. Of all factors relating to patient characteristics considered in the analysis, none was significant after controlling for GP service-related factors. Conclusions: Ethnic minority patients in England continue to consistently report lower satisfaction with their primary health care in recent years. This is largely attributable to supply (service related) rather than demand (patient characteristics) factors. These findings have important implications for health care system policy and practice at both GP and CCG levels in England. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of widespread adoption of information and communication technologies (ICT) on urban structure worldwide. Has it offset agglomeration benefits and led to more dispersed spatial structures, or has it strengthened urban externalities and thus resulted in more concentrated spatial structures? Theoretical and empirical studies on this question have produced contradictory findings. The present study recognizes that assumptions made earlier about the evolution of technological capabilities do not necessarily hold today. As cutting-edge digital technologies have matured considerably, a fresh look at this question is called for. The paper addresses this issue by means of several data sets using instrumental variable methods. One is the UN data on Urban Settlements with more than 300, 000 inhabitants. Estimation methods with these data show that increased adoption of ICT has resulted in national urban systems that are less uniform in terms of city sizes and are characterized by higher population concentrations in larger cities, when concentration is proxied the Pareto (Zipf) coefficient for national city size distributions. Two, is disaggregated data for the urban systems of the US, defined as Micropolitan and Metropolitan Areas, and for the UK, defined as Built-up Areas in England and Wales, respectively. These data allow for the impacts to be studied for cities smaller than those included in the cross-country data. Increased internet usage improved a city's ranking in the US urban system. Similarly, increased download speed improves a built-up area's ranking in England and Wales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has had high mortality rates in the elderly and frail worldwide, particularly in care homes. This is driven by the difficulty of isolating care homes from the wider community, the large population sizes within care facilities (relative to typical households), and the age/frailty of the residents. To quantify the mortality risk posed by disease, the case fatality risk (CFR) is an important tool. This quantifies the proportion of cases that result in death. Throughout the pandemic, CFR amongst care home residents in England has been monitored closely. To estimate CFR, we apply both novel and existing methods to data on deaths in care homes, collected by Public Health England and the Care Quality Commission. We compare these different methods, evaluating their relative strengths and weaknesses. Using these methods, we estimate temporal trends in the instantaneous CFR (at both daily and weekly resolutions) and the overall CFR across the whole of England, and dis-aggregated at regional level. We also investigate how the CFR varies based on age and on the type of care required, dis-aggregating by whether care homes include nursing staff and by age of residents. This work has contributed to the summary of measures used for monitoring the UK epidemic. Author summary: During an epidemic, the case fatality risk (CFR), i.e. the probability that an individual dies after testing positive for a disease, is a key parameter informing the public health response. However, calculating the CFR is not trivial, since there are cases who may die in the future but have not died yet. Therefore, statistical methods are required to correct for the distribution of times between testing positive and dying. In this paper, we derive multiple methods, some existing and some novel, within a consistent methodological framework. This allows us to understand how these different approaches are related and their relative strengths and weaknesses. During the COVID-19 pandemic, care homes have been particularly affected, due to the high risk of COVID-19-associated mortality in the frail and elderly. We apply our CFR methods to data from English care homes to analyse changes in the care home CFR throughout the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Medication errors are an important cause of morbidity and mortality. The pharmacist-led IT-based intervention to reduce clinically important medication errors (PINCER) intervention was shown to reduce medication errors when tested in a cluster randomised controlled trial and when implemented across one region of England. Now that it has been rolled out nationally, and to enhance findings from evaluations with staff and stakeholders, this paper is the first to report patients' perceived acceptability on the use of PINCER in primary care and proposes suggestions on how delivery of PINCER related care could be delivered in a way that is acceptable and not unnecessarily burdensome. Methods: A total of 46 participants living with long-term health conditions who had experience of medication reviews and/or monitoring were recruited through patient participant groups and social media. Semi-structured, qualitative interviews and focus groups were conducted face-to-face or via telephone. A thematic analysis was conducted and findings mapped to the constructs of the Theoretical Framework of Acceptability (TFA). Results: Two themes were identified and interpreted within the most relevant TFA construct: Perceptions on the purpose and components of PINCER (Affective Attitude and Intervention Coherence) and Perceived patient implications (Burden and Self-efficacy). Overall perceptions on PINCER were positive with participants showing good understanding of the components. Access to medication reviews, which PINCER related care can involve, was reported to be limited and a lack of consistency in practitioners delivering reviews was considered challenging, as was lack of communication between primary care and other health-care providers. Patients thought it would be helpful if medication reviews and prescription renewal times were synchronised. Remote medication review consultations were more convenient for some but viewed as a barrier to communication by others. It was acknowledged that some patients may be more resistant to change and more willing to accept changes initiated by general practitioners. Conclusions: Participants found the concept of PINCER acceptable; however, acceptability could be improved if awareness on the role of primary care pharmacists is raised and patient-pharmacist relationships enhanced. Being transparent with communication and delivering streamlined and consistent but flexible PINCER related care is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the scale of the threat posed by SARS-CoV2 B.1.1.529, or Omicron, variant formed a key problem in public health in the early part of 2022. Early evidence indicated that the variant was more transmissible and less severe than previous variants. As the virus was expected to spread quickly through the population of England, it was important that some understanding of the immunological landscape of the country was developed. This paper attempts to estimate the number of people with good immunity to the Omicron variant, defined as either recent infection with two doses of vaccine, or two doses of vaccine with a recent booster dose. To achieve this, we use a process of iterative proportional fitting to estimate the cell values of a contingency table, using national immunisation records and real-time model infection estimates as marginal values. Our results indicate that, despite the increased risk of immune evasion with the Omicron variant, a high proportion of England's population had good immunity to the virus, particularly in older age groups. However, low rates of immunity in younger populations may allow endemic infection to persist for some time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic put considerable strain on healthcare systems worldwide. In order to predict the effect of the local epidemic on hospital capacity in England, we used a variety of data streams to inform the construction and parameterisation of a hospital progression model, EpiBeds, which was coupled to a model of the generalised epidemic. In this model, individuals progress through different pathways (e.g. may recover, die, or progress to intensive care and recover or die) and data from a partially complete patient-pathway line-list was used to provide initial estimates of the mean duration that individuals spend in the different hospital compartments. We then fitted EpiBeds using complete data on hospital occupancy and hospital deaths, enabling estimation of the proportion of individuals that follow the different clinical pathways, the reproduction number of the generalised epidemic, and to make short-term predictions of hospital bed demand. The construction of EpiBeds makes it straightforward to adapt to different patient pathways and settings beyond England. As part of the UK response to the pandemic, EpiBeds provided weekly forecasts to the NHS for hospital bed occupancy and admissions in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland at national and regional scales. Author summary: COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, leads to a high proportion of cases requiring admission to hospital. Coupled with the high burden of infections worldwide, this put substantial pressure on healthcare systems. To enable public health systems to cope with the high levels of demand, forecasting models are vital. These models enable public health managers to plan their workloads accordingly. Here, we developed EpiBeds, which combines an epidemic model with a model for patient flow through hospitals. By fitting this model to data from England, EpiBeds has been used to provide short-term forecasts of hospital admissions and bed demand weekly throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we describe the motivation behind the structure of EpiBeds, how the model is fitted to data, and report the estimates of the key parameters throughout the pandemic. We then evaluate the performance of EpiBeds by comparing generated forecasts to future data points, finding good agreement between the forecasts and data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The occurrence of a range of health outcomes following myocardial infarction (MI) is unknown. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the long-term risk of major health outcomes following MI and generate sociodemographic stratified risk charts in order to inform care recommendations in the post-MI period and underpin shared decision making. Methods and findings: This nationwide cohort study includes all individuals aged ≥18 years admitted to one of 229 National Health Service (NHS) Trusts in England between 1 January 2008 and 31 January 2017 (final follow-up 27 March 2017). We analysed 11 non-fatal health outcomes (subsequent MI and first hospitalisation for heart failure, atrial fibrillation, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, severe bleeding, renal failure, diabetes mellitus, dementia, depression, and cancer) and all-cause mortality. Of the 55,619,430 population of England, 34,116,257 individuals contributing to 145,912,852 hospitalisations were included (mean age 41.7 years (standard deviation [SD 26.1]); n = 14,747,198 (44.2%) male). There were 433,361 individuals with MI (mean age 67.4 years [SD 14.4)]; n = 283,742 (65.5%) male). Following MI, all-cause mortality was the most frequent event (adjusted cumulative incidence at 9 years 37.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] [37.6,37.9]), followed by heart failure (29.6%; 95% CI [29.4,29.7]), renal failure (27.2%; 95% CI [27.0,27.4]), atrial fibrillation (22.3%; 95% CI [22.2,22.5]), severe bleeding (19.0%; 95% CI [18.8,19.1]), diabetes (17.0%; 95% CI [16.9,17.1]), cancer (13.5%; 95% CI [13.3,13.6]), cerebrovascular disease (12.5%; 95% CI [12.4,12.7]), depression (8.9%; 95% CI [8.7,9.0]), dementia (7.8%; 95% CI [7.7,7.9]), subsequent MI (7.1%; 95% CI [7.0,7.2]), and peripheral arterial disease (6.5%; 95% CI [6.4,6.6]). Compared with a risk-set matched population of 2,001,310 individuals, first hospitalisation of all non-fatal health outcomes were increased after MI, except for dementia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.01; 95% CI [0.99,1.02];p = 0.468) and cancer (aHR 0.56; 95% CI [0.56,0.57];p < 0.001). The study includes data from secondary care only—as such diagnoses made outside of secondary care may have been missed leading to the potential underestimation of the total burden of disease following MI. Conclusions: In this study, up to a third of patients with MI developed heart failure or renal failure, 7% had another MI, and 38% died within 9 years (compared with 35% deaths among matched individuals). The incidence of all health outcomes, except dementia and cancer, was higher than expected during the normal life course without MI following adjustment for age, sex, year, and socioeconomic deprivation. Efforts targeted to prevent or limit the accrual of chronic, multisystem disease states following MI are needed and should be guided by the demographic-specific risk charts derived in this study. Using hospital records of 34 million adults admitted to hospitals in England, Marlous Hall and team examine the long-term risk of major health outcomes following myocardial infarction. Author summary: Why was this study done?: Myocardial infarction (MI; heart attack) can have major long-term impact on individuals and result in a wide range of further health conditions. Existing studies have focussed on determining the short-term risk of a second heart attack, stroke, or major bleeding, but research describing the long-term risk of major health outcomes for specific age, sex, and deprivation groups was lacking. Nationally representative and robust information of a wide range of long-term health outcomes following a heart attack is critical for the development of treatment recommendations, which take account of an individuals' specific risk. What did the researchers do and find?: From the population of 56 million adults in England, we analysed hospital records for 34 million adults admitted to hospital (constituting 145 million admission records) to investigate the long-term health outcomes following a heart attack compared with individuals without a heart attack. Of 433,361 individuals with a heart attack, up to a third developed heart failure or renal failure, 7% had further heart attacks, and 38% died within the 9-year study period. Heart failure, atrial fibrillation, stroke, peripheral arterial disease, severe bleeding, renal failure, diabetes, and depression occurred more frequently for people who had a heart attack compared with those who did not, but the risk of cancer was lower overall and the risk of dementia did not differ overall. What do these findings mean?: Efforts should be made to prevent or limit the development of long-term health outcomes that follow a heart attack—the likelihood of which differ depending on the age, sex, and deprivation of an individual. These findings are based on the full population of adults admitted to hospital in England, address limitations of previous studies, and can be used to inform preventative strategies tailored to specific individuals surviving a heart attack. The study was limited to hospitalisation data only—therefore, some diagnoses made outside of hospital may have been missed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Social care is vital to quality of life for people with young onset dementia and their families. Yet care is hugely variable, frequently lacking and poorly coordinated. We aim to establish current practice in English social care for people with young onset dementia and co-produce evidence-based recommendations and resources for improvement. Methods and analysis: In Work-Package 1, we will gather qualitative data from 25 people with young onset dementia and/or main supporters residing in England. We will ask them about their experiences of social care (broadly defined, including independent and voluntary sector provision) and suggestions for improvement. In Work-Package 2, we will conduct a short on-line survey with a wide range of staff with a role in adult social care in England. We will find out about current awareness, knowledge and practice and suggestions for improvements. Quantitative and qualitative analysis will provide a picture of current practice. In Work-Package 3, we will use convergence analysis to synthesise the findings from Work-Packages 1 and 2 and present the findings to a stakeholder workshop, to identify feasible priorities for improvement. We will establish what is already known about good practice relating to these key priorities using a scoping review and interviews with professionals. This knowledge will then feed into the co-production of resources and recommendations with key stakeholders to improve social care for people with young onset dementia and their families. Discussion: This study seeks to address a gap in our understanding of social care provision for people with young onset dementia and develop recommendations and practical resources for improvements. The findings will help people with young onset dementia and supporters to receive higher quality social care. Trial registration: Study registration number:ISRCTN10653250. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To explore COVID-19 vaccination uptake, facilitators and barriers in ethnically-diverse pregnant women. Design and setting: An anonymous quality improvement questionnaire survey exploring COVID-19 vaccination uptake, causes of vaccine hesitancy and trusted sources of information among pregnant women in two acute district general hospitals in England (Berkshire and Surrey) between 1.9.21 and 28.2.22. Population: 441 pregnant women attending routine antenatal clinic appointments. Methods: Consented pregnant women completed the survey either electronically using a QR code or on paper. Descriptive data were summarised and free text responses were thematically analysed. Results: 441 pregnant women, mean age 32 years (range 17–44), completed the survey. Twenty-six percent were from ethnic minority groups, and 31% had a co-morbid health condition. Most respondents (66.2%) had been vaccinated against COVID-19 with at least one dose (White British 71.9%, Asian 67.9%, White-other 63.6%, Black 33%). The most common reasons for not being vaccinated were concerns about effects on the unborn baby and future pregnancies, anxiety about possible adverse impact on the mother, not enough known about the vaccine, and lack of trust in vaccines. Comments included: "I'd rather not risk injecting the unknown into my body", and "I don't trust it." Although 23% used social media for information on COVID-19 vaccination, the most trusted sources were the patient's GP and midwife (43%) and official health-related websites such as NHS (39%). Conclusions: A third of these pregnant women had not been vaccinated against COVID-19. Trusted health professionals like midwives and GPs could have a crucial role in increasing vaccination uptake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Higher education students' mental health has been a growing concern in recent years even before the COVID-19 pandemic. The stresses and restrictions associated with the pandemic have put university students at greater risk of developing mental health issues, which may significantly impair their academic success, social interactions and their future career and personal opportunities. This paper aimed to understand the mental health status of University students at an early stage in the pandemic and to investigate factors associated with higher levels of distress. An online survey including demographics, lifestyle/living situations, brief mental well-being history, questions relating to COVID-19 and standardised measures of depression, anxiety, resilience and quality of life was completed by 1173 students at one University in the North of England. We found high levels of anxiety and depression, with more than 50% experiencing levels above the clinical cut offs, and females scoring significantly higher than males. The survey also suggested relatively low levels of resilience which we attribute to restrictions and isolation which reduced the opportunities to engage in helpful coping strategies and activities rather than enduring personality characteristics. Higher levels of distress were associated with lower levels of exercising, higher levels of tobacco use, and a number of life events associated with the pandemic and lockdown, such as cancelled events, worsening in personal relationships and financial concerns. We discuss the importance of longer-term monitoring and mental health support for university students. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The population prevalence of multimorbidity (the existence of at least 2 or more long-term conditions [LTCs] in an individual) is increasing among young adults, particularly in minority ethnic groups and individuals living in socioeconomically deprived areas. In this study, we applied a data-driven approach to identify clusters of individuals who had an early onset multimorbidity in an ethnically and socioeconomically diverse population. We identified associations between clusters and a range of health outcomes. Methods and findings: Using linked primary and secondary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD (CPRD GOLD), we conducted a cross-sectional study of 837,869 individuals with early onset multimorbidity (aged between 16 and 39 years old when the second LTC was recorded) registered with an English general practice between 2010 and 2020. The study population included 777,906 people of White ethnicity (93%), 33,915 people of South Asian ethnicity (4%), and 26,048 people of Black African/Caribbean ethnicity (3%). A total of 204 LTCs were considered. Latent class analysis stratified by ethnicity identified 4 clusters of multimorbidity in White groups and 3 clusters in South Asian and Black groups. We found that early onset multimorbidity was more common among South Asian (59%, 33,915) and Black (56% 26,048) groups compared to the White population (42%, 777,906). Latent class analysis revealed physical and mental health conditions that were common across all ethnic groups (i.e., hypertension, depression, and painful conditions). However, each ethnic group also presented exclusive LTCs and different sociodemographic profiles: In White groups, the cluster with the highest rates/odds of the outcomes was predominantly male (54%, 44,150) and more socioeconomically deprived than the cluster with the lowest rates/odds of the outcomes. On the other hand, South Asian and Black groups were more socioeconomically deprived than White groups, with a consistent deprivation gradient across all multimorbidity clusters. At the end of the study, 4% (34,922) of the White early onset multimorbidity population had died compared to 2% of the South Asian and Black early onset multimorbidity populations (535 and 570, respectively); however, the latter groups died younger and lost more years of life. The 3 ethnic groups each displayed a cluster of individuals with increased rates of primary care consultations, hospitalisations, long-term prescribing, and odds of mortality. Study limitations include the exclusion of individuals with missing ethnicity information, the age of diagnosis not reflecting the actual age of onset, and the exclusion of people from Mixed, Chinese, and other ethnic groups due to insufficient power to investigate associations between multimorbidity and health-related outcomes in these groups. Conclusions: These findings emphasise the need to identify, prevent, and manage multimorbidity early in the life course. Our work provides additional insights into the excess burden of early onset multimorbidity in those from socioeconomically deprived and diverse groups who are disproportionately and more severely affected by multimorbidity and highlights the need to ensure healthcare improvements are equitable. Fabiola Eto and co-workers study variations in comorbidity, service use and health outcomes by ethnicity and socioeconomic position, among people aged 16-39 years. Author summary: Why was this study done?: Most studies of multimorbidity focus on older adults, and only a few have investigated multimorbidity in younger populations. The prevalence of multimorbidity is increasing among young adults, particularly in minority ethnic groups and individuals living in socioeconomically deprived areas. There is evidence showing that individuals with socioeconomic vulnerability experience poorer health outcomes, such as lower quality healthcare provision, premature death, and higher mortality rates. The association between early onset multimorbidity and poor health outcomes in ethnically and socially diverse populations in England remains underinvestigated. What did the researchers do and find?: We used primary and secondary healthcare electronic health records from 837,869 individuals of White, South Asian, and Black African/Caribbean ethnicity in England with early onset of multimorbidity who were registered with an English general practice between 2010 and 2020. We found that the early onset of multimorbidity was more common among minority ethnic groups (59% and 56%, in the South Asian and Black populations, respectively) than in the White population (42%) living in the UK. South Asians and Black individuals with early onset multimorbidity died earlier than White individuals with early onset multimorbidity (52 and 48 years old in the median, respectively, versus 61 years old). South Asian and Black groups were more socioeconomically deprived than White groups, with a consistent deprivation gradient across all multimorbidity clusters. In White groups, the cluster of individuals with the highest rates/odds of the outcomes was more socioeconomically deprived than the cluster with the lowest rates/odds of the outcomes. What do these findings mean?: Our findings emphasise the need to identify, prevent, and manage multimorbidity early in the life course. Our work highlights the need to ensure that public health policies are equitable and reach those living in socioeconomic deprivation and minority ethnic groups who are disproportionately and more severely affected by early onset multimorbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Global Digital Exemplar (GDE) Programme was designed to promote the digitisation of hospital services in England. Selected provider organisations that were reasonably digitally-mature were funded with the expectation that they would achieve internationally recognised levels of excellence and act as exemplars ('GDE sites') and share their learning with somewhat less digitally-mature Fast Follower (FF) sites. Aims: This paper explores how partnerships between GDE and FF sites have promoted knowledge sharing and learning between organisations. Methods: We conducted an independent qualitative longitudinal evaluation of the GDE Programme, collecting data across 36 provider organisations (including acute, mental health and speciality), 12 of which we studied as in-depth ethnographic case studies. We used a combination of semi-structured interviews with programme leads, vendors and national policy leads, non-participant observations of meetings and workshops, and analysed national and local documents. This allowed us to explore both how inter-organisational learning and knowledge sharing was planned, and how it played out in practice. Thematic qualitative analysis, combining findings from diverse data sources, was facilitated by NVivo 11 and drew on sociotechnical systems theory. Results: Formally established GDE and FF partnerships were perceived to enhance learning and accelerate adoption of technologies in most pairings. They were seen to be most successful where they had encouraged, and were supported by, informal knowledge networking, driven by the mutual benefits of information sharing. Informal networking was enhanced where the benefits were maximised (for example where paired sites had implemented the same technological system) and networking costs minimised (for example by geographical proximity, prior links and institutional alignment). Although the intervention anticipated uni-directional learning between exemplar sites and 'followers', in most cases we observed a two-way flow of information, with GDEs also learning from FFs, through informal networking which also extended to other health service providers outside the Programme. The efforts of the GDE Programme to establish a learning ecosystem has enhanced the profile of shared learning within the NHS. Conclusions: Inter-organisational partnerships have produced significant gains for both follower (FF) and exemplar (GDE) sites. Formal linkages were most effective where they had facilitated, and were supported by, informal networking. Informal networking was driven by the mutual benefits of information sharing and was optimised where sites were well aligned in terms of technology, geography and culture. Misalignments that created barriers to networking between organisations in a few cases were attributed to inappropriate choice of partners. Policy makers seeking to promote learning through centrally directed mechanisms need to create a framework that enables networking and informal knowledge transfer, allowing local organisations to develop bottom-up collaboration and exchanges, where they are productive, in an organic manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prospective cohort studies of incident HIV and associated factors among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) in the United Kingdom are lacking. We report time trends in and factors associated with HIV incidence between 2013 and 2019 among a cohort of GBMSM: the AURAH2 prospective study.Methods and Findings: Participants were recruited through 1 of 3 sexual health clinics in London and Brighton (July 2013 to April 2016) and self-completed a baseline paper questionnaire and subsequent 4-monthly and annual online questionnaires (March 2015 to March 2018), including information on sociodemographics, lifestyle, health and well-being, HIV status, sexual/HIV-related behaviours, and preexposure prophylaxis and postexposure prophylaxis (PrEP/PEP). Incident HIV was ascertained by linkage with national HIV surveillance data from Public Health England (PHE). We investigated the associations of HIV incidence with (1) baseline factors using mixed-effects Weibull proportional hazard models, unadjusted and adjusted for age, country of birth and ethnicity, sexuality, and education level; and (2) time-updated factors, using mixed-effects Poisson regression models. In total, 1,162 men (mean age 34 years, 82% white, 94% gay, 74% university-educated) were enrolled in the study. Thirty-three HIV seroconversions occurred over 4,618.9 person-years (PY) of follow-up: an overall HIV incidence rate (IR) of 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51 to 1.00) per 100 PY. Incidence declined from 1.47 (95% CI 0.48 to 4.57) per 100 PY in 2013/2014 to 0.25 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.78) per 100 PY in 2018/2019; average annual decline was 0.85-fold (p < 0.001). Baseline factors associated with HIV acquisition included the following: injection drug use (6/38 men who reported injection drug-acquired HIV; unadjusted conditional hazard ratio (HR) 27.96, 95% CI 6.99 to 111.85, p < 0.001), noninjection chemsex-related drug use (13/321; HR 6.45, 95% CI 1.84 to 22.64, p < 0.001), condomless anal sex (CLS) (26/741; HR 3.75, 95% CI 1.31 to 10·74, p = 0.014); higher number of CLS partners (HRs >10 partners [7/57]; 5 to 10 partners [5/60]; and 2 to 4 partners [11/293]: 14.04, 95% CI 4.11 to 47.98; 9.60, 95% CI 2.58 to 35.76; and 4.05, 95% CI 1.29 to 12.72, respectively, p < 0.001); CLS with HIV-positive partners (14/147; HR 6.45, 95% CI 3.15 to 13.22, p < 0.001), versatile CLS role (21/362; HR 6.35, 95% CI 2.18 to 18.51, p < 0.001), group sex (64/500; HR 8.81, 95% CI 3.07 to 25.24, p < 0.001), sex for drugs/money (4/55, HR 3.27, 95% CI 1.14 to 9.38, p = 0.027) (all in previous 3 months); previous 12-month report of a bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) diagnoses (21/440; HR 3.95, 95% CI 1.81 to 8.63, p < 0.001), and more than 10 new sexual partners (21/471, HRs 11 to 49, 50 to 99, and >100 new partners: 3.17, 95% CI 1.39 to 7.26; 4.40, 95% CI 1.35 to 14.29; and 4.84, 95% CI 1.05 to 22.4, respectively, p < 0.001). Results were broadly consistent for time-updated analysis (n = 622 men). The study's main limitation is that men may not be representative of the broader GBMSM population in England.Conclusions: We observed a substantial decline in HIV incidence from 2013 to 2019 among GBMSM attending sexual health clinics. Injection drug use, chemsex use, and measures of high-risk sexual behaviour were strongly associated with incident HIV. Progress towards zero new infections could be achieved if combination HIV prevention including Test and Treat strategies and routine commissioning of a PrEP programme continues across the UK and reaches all at-risk populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, many healthcare facilities have suffered from shortages in medical resources, particularly in Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). In this paper, we propose a game-theoretic approach to schedule PPE orders among healthcare facilities. In this PPE game, each independent healthcare facility optimises its own storage utilisation in order to keep its PPE cost at a minimum. Such a model can reduce peak demand considerably when applied to a variable PPE consumption profile. Experiments conducted for NHS England regions using actual data confirm that the challenge of securing PPE supply during disasters such as COVID-19 can be eased if proper stock management procedures are adopted. These procedures can include early stockpiling, increasing storage capacities and implementing measures that can prolong the time period between successive infection waves, such as social distancing measures. Simulation results suggest that the provision of PPE dedicated storage space can be a viable solution to avoid straining PPE supply chains in case a second wave of COVID-19 infections occurs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For pilot or experimental employment programme results to apply beyond their test bed, researchers must select ‘clusters’ (i.e. the job centres delivering the new intervention) that are reasonably representative of the whole territory. More specifically, this requirement must account for conditions that could artificially inflate the effect of a programme, such as the fluidity of the local labour market or the performance of the local job centre. Failure to achieve representativeness results in Cluster Sampling Bias (CSB). This paper makes three contributions to the literature. Theoretically, it approaches the notion of CSB as a human behaviour. It offers a comprehensive theory, whereby researchers with limited resources and conflicting priorities tend to oversample ‘effect-enhancing’ clusters when piloting a new intervention. Methodologically, it advocates for a ‘narrow and deep’ scope, as opposed to the ‘wide and shallow’ scope, which has prevailed so far. The PILOT-2 dataset was developed to test this idea. Empirically, it provides evidence on the prevalence of CSB. In conditions similar to the PILOT-2 case study, investigators (1) do not sample clusters with a view to maximise generalisability; (2) do not oversample ‘effect-enhancing’ clusters; (3) consistently oversample some clusters, including those with higher-than-average client caseloads; and (4) report their sampling decisions in an inconsistent and generally poor manner. In conclusion, although CSB is prevalent, it is still unclear whether it is intentional and meant to mislead stakeholders about the expected effect of the intervention or due to higher-level constraints or other considerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agitation is common in people living with dementia especially at the end of life. We examined how staff interpreted agitation behavior in people with dementia nearing end of life, how this may influence their responses and its impact on the quality of care. Ethnographic study. Structured and semi-structured non-participant observations (referred to subsequently in this paper as "structured observations") of people living with dementia nearing the end of life in hospital and care homes (south-east England) and in-depth interviews with staff, conducted August 2015-March 2017. Three data sources: 1) detailed field notes, 2) observations using a structured tool and checklist for behaviors classed as agitation and staff and institutional responses, 3) staff semi-structured qualitative interviews. We calculated the time participants were agitated and described staff responses. Data sources were analyzed separately, developed continuously and relationally during the study and synthesized where appropriate. We identified two main 'ideal types' of staff explanatory models for agitation: In the first, staff attribute agitated behaviors to the person's "moral judgement", making them prone to rejecting or punitive responses. In the second staff adopt a more "needs-based" approach in which agitation behaviors are regarded as meaningful and managed with proactive and investigative approaches. These different approaches appear to have significant consequences for the timing, frequency and quality of staff response. While these models may overlap they tend to reflect distinct organizational resources and values. Care worker knowledge about agitation is not enough, and staff need organizational support to care better for people living with dementia towards end of life. Positional theory may help to explain much of the cultural-structural context that produces staff disengagement from people with dementia, offering insights on how agitation behavior is reframed by some staff as dangerous. Such behavior may be associated with low-resource institutions with minimal staff training where the personhood of staff may be neglected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of accounting for social and behavioural processes when studying public health emergencies has been well-recognised. For infectious disease outbreaks in particular, several methods of incorporating individual behaviour have been put forward, but very few are based on established psychological frameworks. In this paper, we develop a decision framework based on the COM-B model of behaviour change to investigate the impact of individual decision-making on public health outcomes. We demonstrate the application of our decision framework in a proof-of-concept case study based on the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic in the UK. The National Pandemic Flu Service (NPFS) was set up in England during the pandemic as a means to provide antiviral (AV) treatment to clinically ill patients with influenza-like illness, via telephone calls or internet screening, thereby averting the need to see a doctor. The evaluated patients based on a clinical algorithm and authorised AV drugs for collection via community collection points. We applied our behavioural framework to evaluate the influence of human behaviour on AV collection rates, and subsequently to identify interventions that could help improve AV collection rates. Our model was validated against empirically collected pandemic data from 2009 in the UK. We also performed a sensitivity analysis to identify potentially effective interventions by varying model parameters. Using our behavioural framework in a proof-of-concept case study, we found that interventions geared towards increasing people's 'Capability' and 'Opportunity' are likely to result in increased AV collection, potentially resulting in fewer influenza-related hospitalisations and deaths. We note that important behavioural data from public health emergencies are largely scarce. Insights obtained from models such as ours can, not only be very useful in designing healthcare interventions, but also inform future data collection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Patient and public involvement (PPI) is a requirement for UK health and social care research funding. Evidence for how best to implement PPI in research programmes, such as National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaborations for Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRCs), remains limited. This paper reports findings from an action research (AR) project called IMPRESS, which aims to strengthen PPI within CLAHRC East of England (EoE). IMPRESS combines AR with Normalisation Process Theory (NPT) to explore PPI within diverse case study projects, identifying actions to implement, test and refine to further embed PPI. Methods: We purposively selected CLAHRC EoE case study projects for in-depth analysis of PPI using NPT. Data were generated from project PPI documentation, semi-structured qualitative interviews with researchers and PPI contributors and focus groups. Transcripts and documents were subjected to abductive thematic analysis and triangulation within case. Systematic across case comparison of themes was undertaken with findings and implications refined through stakeholder consultation. Results: We interviewed 24 researchers and 13 PPI contributors and analysed 28 documents from 10 case studies. Three focus groups were held: two with researchers (n = 4 and n = 6) and one with PPI contributors (n = 5). Findings detail to what extent projects made sense of PPI, bought in to PPI, operationalised PPI and appraised it, thus identifying barriers and enablers to fully embedded PPI. Conclusion: Combining NPT with AR allows us to assess the embeddedness of PPI within projects and programme, to inform specific local action and report broader conceptual lessons for PPI knowledge and practice informing the development of an action framework for embedding PPI in research programmes. To embed PPI within similar programmes teams, professionals, disciplines and institutions should be recognised as variably networked into existing PPI support. Further focus and research is needed on sharing PPI learning and supporting innovation in PPI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the centrality of regions in social movements, politics and public administration, here we aim to quantitatively study regional identity, cross-region communication and sentiment. This paper presents a new methodology to study social interaction within and between social-geographic regions, and then applies the methodology to a case study of England and Wales. We use a social network, built from geo-located Twitter data, to identify contiguous geographical regions with a shared social identity and then investigate patterns of communication within and between them. In contrast to other approaches (e.g. using phone call data records or online friendship networks), use of Twitter data provides message contents as well as social connections. This allows us to investigate not only the volume of communication between locations, but also the sentiment and vocabulary used in the messages. For example, our case study shows: a significant dialect difference between England and Wales; that regions tend to be more positive about themselves than about others, with the South being more ‘self-regarding’ than the North; and that people talk politics much more between regions than within. This study demonstrates how social media can be used to quantify regional identity and inter-region communications and sentiment, exposing these previously hard-to-observe geographic concepts to analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthworms are primary candidates for national soil health monitoring as they are ecosystem engineers that benefit both food production and ecosystem services associated with soil security. Supporting farmers to monitor soil health could help to achieve the policy aspiration of sustainable soils by 2030 in England; however, little is known about how to overcome participation barriers, appropriate methodologies (practical, cost-effective, usefulness) or training needs. This paper presents the results from a pilot #60minworms study which mobilised farmers to assess over >1300 ha farmland soils in spring 2018. The results interpretation framework is based on the presence of earthworms from each of the three ecological groups at each observation (20 x 20 cm x 20 cm pit) and spatially across a field (10 soil pits). Results showed that most fields have basic earthworm presence and abundance, but 42% fields may be over-worked as indicated by absence/rarity of epigeic and/or anecic earthworms. Tillage had a negative impact (p < 0.05) on earthworm populations and organic matter management did not mitigate tillage impacts. In terms of farmer participation, Twitter and Farmers Weekly magazine were highly effective channels for recruitment. Direct feedback from participants included excellent scores in trust, value and satisfaction of the protocol (e.g. 100% would do the test again) and 57% would use their worm survey results to change their soil management practices. A key training need in terms of earthworm identification skills was reported. The trade-off between data quality, participation rates and fieldwork costs suggests there is potential to streamline the protocol further to #30minworms (5 pits), incurring farmer fieldwork costs of approximately £1.48 ha-1. At national scales, £14 million pounds across 4.7 M ha-1 in fieldwork costs per survey could be saved by farmer participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Respiratory tract infections are readily transmitted in care homes. Airborne transmission of pathogens causing respiratory tract illness is largely unmitigated. Portable high-efficiency-particulate-air (HEPA) filtration units capture microbial particles from the air, but it is unclear whether this is sufficient to reduce infections in care home residents. The Air Filtration to prevent symptomatic winter Respiratory Infections (including COVID-19) in care homes (AFRI-c) randomized controlled trial will determine whether using HEPA filtration units reduces respiratory infection episodes in care home residents. Methods: AFRI-c is a cluster randomized controlled trial that will be delivered in residential care homes for older people in England. Ninety-one care homes will be randomised to take part for one winter period. The intervention care homes will receive HEPA filtration units for use in communal areas and private bedrooms. Normal infection control measures will continue in all care homes. Anonymised daily data on symptoms will be collected for up to 30 residents. Ten to 12 of these residents will be invited to consent to a primary care medical notes review and (in intervention homes) to having an air filter switched on in their private room. The primary outcome will be number of symptomatic winter respiratory infection episodes. Secondary outcomes include specific clinical measures of infection, number of falls / near falls, number of laboratory confirmed infections, hospitalisations, staff sickness and cost-effectiveness. A mixed methods process evaluation will assess intervention acceptability and implementation. Discussion: The results of AFRI-c will provide vital information about whether portable HEPA filtration units reduce symptomatic winter respiratory infections in older care home residents. Findings about effectiveness, fidelity, acceptability and cost-effectiveness will support stakeholders to determine the use of HEPA filtration units as part of infection control policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lead exposure at any concentration can adversely impact health, with children being more vulnerable to its effects. In England, children with an elevated blood lead concentration (BLC) are reported to Health Protection Teams (HPTs) for public health investigation. A detailed review of these cases has not yet been conducted. Objectives: The objectives of this study were to describe the demographics, likely setting and sources of lead exposure, risk behaviours, public health investigations and outcomes for children aged <16 years with a BLC requiring public health action reported to HPTs between 2014–2022 in England. Methods: Data were collected via a lookback questionnaire and a live enhanced surveillance questionnaire. Data were deduplicated, cleaned and results summarised as numbers and percentages using R studio. A thematic analysis was conducted on qualitative responses to a question relating to problems experienced during case investigation. Results: There were 340 cases in our study: the majority were aged 1–4 years old (53%) and male (69%). Ethnicity data was poorly recorded. A higher than expected proportion (31%) lived in the most deprived areas. Pica (76%) and learning difficulties (60%) were often present. Cases were primarily exposed to lead in the domestic setting (92%) with paint (43%) and soil (29%) the most common exposures. Most cases lived in rented accommodation (63%), with a higher proportion in social rentals (48%) than privately rented (37%). Case investigations were resource intensive and poor stakeholder engagement/response was most frequently identified as challenging by HPTs. Conclusions: Lead exposure is harmful to children and requires public health and clinical management, which can be complex and challenging. Prevention of lead exposure in children should be the focus of intervention efforts. Outreach, engagement and preventative work should focus on both renters and homeowners. Collecting ethnicity data consistently may enable identification of more specific groups at increased risk of lead exposure in England. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Line manager (LM) training in mental health is gaining recognition as an effective method for improving the mental health and wellbeing of workers. However, research predominantly focuses on the impacts of training at the employee-level, often neglecting the broader organisational-level outcomes. Most studies derive insights from LMs using self-reported data, with very few studies examining impacts on organisational-level outcomes. Aim: To explore the relationship between LM training in mental health and organisational-level outcomes using company-level data from a diverse range of organisations. Methods: This study is a secondary analysis of anonymised panel survey data from firms in England, with data derived from computer-assisted telephone surveys over four waves (2020, 1899 firms; 2021, 1551; 2022, 1904; and 2023, 1902). The analysis merged the four datasets to control for temporal variations. Probit regression was conducted including controls for age of organisation, sector, size, and wave to isolate specific relationships of interest. Results: We found that LM training in mental health is significantly associated with several organisational-level outcomes, including: improved staff recruitment (β =.317, p <.001) and retention (β =.453, p <.001), customer service (β =.453, p <.001), business performance (β =.349, p <.001), and lower long-term sickness absence due to mental ill-health (β = -.132, p <.05). Conclusion: This is the first study to explore the organisational-level outcomes of LM training in mental health in a large sample of organisations of different types, sizes, and sectors. Training LM in mental health is directly related to diverse aspects of an organisations' functioning and, therefore, has strategic business value for organisations. This knowledge has international relevance for policy and practice in workforce health and business performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Evidence for the effect of neighbourhood food environment (NFE) exposures on diet in the UK is mixed, potentially due to exposure misclassification. This study used the first national COVID-19 lockdown in England as an opportunity to isolate the independent effects of the NFE exposure on food and drink purchasing, and assessed whether these varied by region. Methods: Transaction-level purchasing data for food and drink items for at-home (1,221 households) and out-of-home consumption (171 individuals) were available from the GB Kantar Fast Moving Consumer Goods Panel for London and the North of England. The study period included 23rd March to 10th May 2020 ('lockdown'), and the same period in 2019 for comparison. NFE exposures included food outlet density and proximity, and NFE composition within a 1 km network buffer around the home. Associations were estimated for both years separately, adjusted for individual and household characteristics, population density and area deprivation. Interaction terms between region and exposures were explored. Results: There were no consistent patterns of association between NFE exposures and food and drink purchasing in either time period. In 2019, there was some evidence for a 1.4% decrease in energy purchased from ultra-processed foods for each additional 500 m in the distance to the nearest OOH outlet (IR 0.986, 95% CI 0.977 to 0.995, p = 0.020). In 2020, there was some evidence for a 1.8% reduction in total take-home energy for each additional chain supermarket per km2 in the neighbourhood (IR 0.982, 95% CI 0.969, 0.995, p = 0.045). Region-specific effects were observed in 2019 only. Discussion: Findings suggest that the differences in exposure to the NFE may not explain differences in the patterns or healthiness of grocery purchasing. Observed pre-pandemic region-specific effects allude to the importance of geographical context when designing research and policy. Future research may assess associations for those who relied on their NFE during lockdown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Early-life medical and surgical interventions in babies born preterm and/or with surgical conditions influence later life health and educational outcomes. Obtaining long-term outcomes post-discharge to evaluate the impact of interventions is complex, expensive, and burdensome to families. Linkage of routinely collected data offers a feasible and cost-effective solution. The NeoWONDER research programme aims to describe the short and long-term health and educational outcomes for babies born preterm and/or with surgical conditions and evaluate the impact of neonatal care and interventions on later health and educational outcomes. Methods and analysis: We will include babies who received care in neonatal units in England and Wales, born between 2007–2020 with a gestational age below 32 weeks (approximately 100,000), and/or born between 2012–2020 (all gestations) with any of six surgical conditions: necrotising enterocolitis, Hirschsprung's disease, gastroschisis, oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, and posterior urethral valves (approximately 8,000). A detailed list of surgical condition codes is shown in S3 File. We will obtain long-term health and education outcomes through linkage of the National Neonatal Research Database, which contains routine data for all babies admitted to NHS neonatal units, to other existing health and educational datasets. For England, these are: Hospital Episode Statistics, the Office for National Statistics, Mental Health Services Dataset, Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network, National Pupil Database; and for Wales, the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank. Analysis will be undertaken on de-identified linked datasets. Outcomes of interest for health include mortality, hospital admissions, diagnoses indicative of neurodisability and/or chronic illness, health care utilisation; and for education are attainment (using national curriculum assessments), school absence and special educational needs status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To determine the magnitude and shape of the relationship between dental caries experience and the source of oral health information in England. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study using the Child Dental Health Survey 2013 in England. Using a negative binomial model, the relationship between the number of decayed, missing, filled teeth (DMFT) of 12- and 15-year-old students and their primary source of oral health information was assessed. The sources of oral health information included parents, television, newspapers, the Internet, and social media. The adjusted model included age, sex, and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). R was used for data handling, analysis and reporting. Results: Overall, 2,372 children were assessed (48.7% female, 48.6% 12-year-old). For the majority, the primary source of oral health information was their parents (89.5%) followed by the Internet (43.4%). Over nine-tenth of the participants had a DMFT = 0. The adjusted model showed that the prevalence rate of DMFT for the children whose primary source of information is their parents (0.45) or television (0.62) is lower than 1. The prevalence rate for the Internet (1.17) and social media (1.67) was higher than 1, but they were removed from the final model due to being non-statistically significant. Age and deprivation had a direct relationship with the prevalence rate of DMFT, meaning that 15-year-olds and children from more deprived areas had a higher prevalence rate of DMFT. Conclusion: Children whose primary source of oral health information was their parents or television had a lower DMFT. On the contrary, using the Internet or social media as the source of oral health information was associated with higher caries experience among schoolchildren. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In response to the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown measures Move Well, Feel Good (MWFG) was developed as a school intervention using improvement of motor competence as a mechanism for promoting positive mental health. Study objectives were to evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of MWFG and to describe changes in child-level outcomes. Methods: Five northwest England primary schools were recruited. MWFG was delivered over 10-weeks through physical education (PE) lessons, which were supplemented by optional class-time, break-time, and home activities. The intervention focused on development of 9–10 year-old children's motor competence in locomotor, object control, and stability skills, and psychosocial skills. Feasibility was evaluated against nine pre-defined criteria using surveys, interviews (teachers), and focus groups (children). Pre- and post-intervention assessments of motor competence, mental health, prosocial behaviour, wellbeing, and 24-hour movement behaviours were also completed. Results: The five recruited schools represented 83% of the target number, 108 children consented (54% of target) with teachers recruited in all schools (100% of target). Intervention dose was reflected by 76% of the 45 scheduled PE lessons being delivered, and adherence was strong (>85% of children attending ≥75% of lessons). Positive indicators of acceptability were provided by 86% of children, 83% of PE teachers, and 90% of class teachers. Data collection methods were deemed acceptable by 91% of children and 80% of class teachers, and children spoke positively about participating in the data collection. Child-level outcome data collection was completed by 65%-97% of children, with a 3%-35% attrition rate at post-intervention, depending on measure. Favourable changes in motor competence (+13.7%), mental health difficulties (-8.8%), and prosocial behaviour (+7.6%) were observed. Conclusions: MWFG is an acceptable and feasible motor competence intervention to promote positive mental health. Content and delivery modifications could inform progression to a pilot trial with a more robust design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considerable spatial heterogeneity has been observed in COVID-19 transmission across administrative areas of England throughout the pandemic. This study investigates what drives these differences. We constructed a probabilistic case count model for 306 administrative areas of England across 95 weeks, fit using a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework. We incorporate the impact of acquired immunity, of spatial exportation of cases, and 16 spatially-varying socio-economic, socio-demographic, health, and mobility variables. Model comparison assesses the relative contributions of these respective mechanisms. We find that spatially-varying and time-varying differences in week-to-week transmission were definitively associated with differences in: time spent at home, variant-of-concern proportion, and adult social care funding. However, model comparison demonstrates that the impact of these terms is negligible compared to the role of spatial exportation between administrative areas. While these results confirm the impact of some, but not all, static measures of spatially-varying inequity in England, our work corroborates the finding that observed differences in disease transmission during the pandemic were predominantly driven by underlying epidemiological factors rather than aggregated metrics of demography and health inequity between areas. Further work is required to assess how health inequity more broadly contributes to these epidemiological factors. Author summary: During the COVID-19 pandemic, different geographic areas of England saw different patterns in the number of confirmed cases over time. This study investigated whether demographic differences between these areas (such as the amount of deprivation, the age and ethnicity of the populations, or differences in where people spent their time) were linked to these differences in disease transmission. We also considered whether this was associated with the number of cases in neighbouring areas as well. Using a mathematical model fit to multiple data streams, we discovered that a statistically significant link between some demographic variables (time spent at home, COVID-19 variant, and the amount of adult social care funding) and week-to-week transmission exists, but this relationship is very small, and the influence of cases in neighbouring areas was far more impactful in explaining differences in transmission between areas over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying which young people living with perinatally acquired HIV (PHIV) are less likely to engage in care is crucial to allow targeted interventions to support them to attend clinic. We adapted an existing Engagement in Care (EIC) algorithm for adults with HIV in England, for use in young people. We applied it to data from young people with PHIV in the Adolescents and Adults Living with Perinatal HIV (AALPHI) cohort. The algorithm predicts the timing of the next scheduled clinic visit, within 1–6 months of current visit, based on routine clinical data. Follow-up was 12-months from AALPHI baseline interview. Each person-month was classified as engaged in care or not. Logistic regression models (allowing for clustered data) were used to explore baseline characteristics associated with being engaged in care, adjusting for a priori variables (time from interview, sex, age, ethnicity, country of birth). Potential characteristics were across 7 domains: sociodemographic; risk behaviour practices; mental health; cognition; clinic setting; HIV management and experience; and HIV clinical markers. Of 316 young people, 187(59%) were female, 271(86%) of black ethnicity and 184(58%) born abroad. At baseline, median [IQR] age was 17[15–18] years, and 202(69%) had viral load ≤50 copies/ml(c/mL). 87% of 3,585 person-months were classified as engaged in care. Characteristics independently associated with poorer odds of being engaged in care were: Asian/mixed/other ethnicity, vs. black ethnicity (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.25, 0.78, p = 0.02); ever self-harmed, vs. not (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.32, 0.95, p = 0.03); on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and self-assessed bad/not so good adherence (OR 0.46, 95% CI 0.25, 0.84) or not on ART (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.64, 1.21) vs. on ART and good/excellent adherence (p = 0.04)); baseline VL>50c/mL, vs VL≤50c/mL (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.30, 0.75, p = 0.002). These characteristics can help identify individuals requiring enhanced support to maintain service engagement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The Social media, Smartphone use and Self-Harm (3S-YP) study is a prospective observational cohort study to investigate the mechanisms underpinning associations between social media and smartphone use and self-harm in a clinical youth sample. We present here a comprehensive description of the cohort from baseline data and an overview of data available from baseline and follow-up assessments. Methods: Young people aged 13–25 years were recruited from a mental health trust in England and followed up for 6 months. Self-report data was collected at baseline and monthly during follow-up and linked with electronic health records (EHR) and user-generated data. Findings: A total of 362 young people enrolled and provided baseline questionnaire data. Most participants had a history of self-harm according to clinical (n = 295, 81.5%) and broader definitions (n = 296, 81.8%). At baseline, there were high levels of current moderate/severe anxiety (n = 244; 67.4%), depression (n = 255; 70.4%) and sleep disturbance (n = 171; 47.2%). Over half used social media and smartphones after midnight on weekdays (n = 197, 54.4%; n = 215, 59.4%) and weekends (n = 241, 66.6%; n = 263, 72.7%), and half met the cut-off for problematic smartphone use (n = 177; 48.9%). Of the cohort, we have questionnaire data at month 6 from 230 (63.5%), EHR data from 345 (95.3%), social media data from 110 (30.4%) and smartphone data from 48 (13.3%). Conclusion: The 3S-YP study is the first prospective study with a clinical youth sample, for whom to investigate the impact of digital technology on youth mental health using novel data linkages. Baseline findings indicate self-harm, anxiety, depression, sleep disturbance and digital technology overuse are prevalent among clinical youth. Future analyses will explore associations between outcomes and exposures over time and compare self-report with user-generated data in this cohort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding digital exclusion in older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic could help tailor responses to future outbreaks. This cohort study used data from older adults aged 60+ years in England who participated in wave nine (2018/2019) of the main English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) survey, and/or wave one of the ELSA COVID-19 sub-study (June/July 2020). Using latent class analysis and latent transition analysis, we aimed to identify distinct subgroups of older adults characterised by different patterns of internet use pre- and intra-pandemic, explore the extent to which individuals remained in the same subgroup or transitioned to a different subgroup during the COVID-19 pandemic, and examine longitudinal associations of socio-economic factors (education, occupational class, and wealth) with latent class membership. Preliminary tests showed that the types of internet activities differed between men and women; therefore, subsequent analyses were stratified by biological sex. Three clusters (low, medium, and high) were identified in male participants at both timepoints. Among female participants, three clusters were distinguished pre-pandemic and two (low versus high) during the pandemic. The latent classes were characterised by participants' breadth of internet use. Higher education, occupational class, and wealth were associated with greater odds of membership in the medium and/or high classes, versus the low class, in men and women. A high degree of stability in latent class membership was observed over time. However, men experienced a stark decrease in online health information-seeking. Our results highlight that inequality regarding the range of functional and social opportunities provided by the internet prevailed during the pandemic. Policymakers should ensure that digital access and upskilling initiatives are equitable for all. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Demand for urgent and emergency health care in England has grown over the last decade, for reasons that are not clear. Changes in population demographics may be a cause. This study investigated associations between individuals' characteristics (including socioeconomic deprivation and long term health conditions (LTC)) and the frequency of emergency department (ED) attendances, in the Norfolk and Waveney subregion of the East of England. Methods: The study population was people who were registered with 91 of 106 Norfolk and Waveney general practices during one year from 1 April 2022 to 31 March 2023. Linked primary and secondary care and geographical data included each individual's sociodemographic characteristics, and number of ED attendances during the same year and, for some individuals, LTCs and number of general practice (GP) appointments. Associations between these factors and ED attendances were estimated using Poisson regression models. Results: 1,027,422 individuals were included of whom 57.4% had GP data on the presence or absence of LTC, and 43.1% had both LTC and general practitioner appointment data. In the total population ED attendances were more frequent in individuals aged under five years, (adjusted Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) 1.25, 95% confidence interval 1.23 to 1.28) compared to 15–35 years); living in more socioeconomically deprived areas (IRR 0.61 (0.60 to 0.63)) for least deprived compared to most deprived,and living closer to the nearest ED. Among individuals with LTC data, each additional LTC was also associated with increased ED attendances (IRR 1.16 (1.15 to 1.16)). Among individuals with LTC and GP appointment data, each additional GP appointment was also associated with increased ED attendances (IRR 1.03 (1.026 to 1.027)). Conclusions: In the Norfolk and Waveney population, ED attendance rates were higher for young children and individuals living in more deprived areas and closer to EDs. In individuals with LTC and GP appointment data, both factors were also associated with higher ED attendance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Reducing waiting times is a major policy objective in publicly-funded healthcare systems. However, reductions in waiting times can produce a demand response, which may offset increases in capacity. Early detection and diagnosis of cancer is a policy focus in many OECD countries, but prolonged waiting periods for specialist confirmation of diagnosis could impede this goal. We examine whether urgent GP referrals for suspected cancer patients are responsive to local hospital waiting times. Method: We used annual counts of referrals from all 6,667 general practices to all 185 hospital Trusts in England between April 2012 and March 2018. Using a practice-level measure of local hospital waiting times based on breaches of the two-week maximum waiting time target, we examined the relationship between waiting times and urgent GP referrals for suspected cancer. To identify whether the relationship is driven by differences between practices or changes over time, we estimated three regression models: pooled linear regression, a between-practice estimator, and a within-practice estimator. Results: Ten percent higher rates of patients breaching the two-week wait target in local hospitals were associated with higher volumes of referrals in the pooled linear model (4.4%; CI 2.4% to 6.4%) and the between-practice estimator (12.0%; CI 5.5% to 18.5%). The relationship was not statistically significant using the within-practice estimator (1.0%; CI -0.4% to 2.5%). Conclusion: The positive association between local hospital waiting times and GP demand for specialist diagnosis was caused by practices with higher levels of referrals facing longer local waiting times. Temporal changes in waiting times faced by individual practices were not related to changes in their referral volumes. GP referrals for diagnostic cancer services were not found to respond to waiting times in the short-term. In this setting, it may therefore be possible to reduce waiting times by increasing supply without consequently increasing demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genetic drift in infectious disease transmission results from randomness of transmission and host recovery or death. The strength of genetic drift for SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to be high due to high levels of superspreading, and this is expected to substantially impact disease epidemiology and evolution. However, we don't yet have an understanding of how genetic drift changes over time or across locations. Furthermore, noise that results from data collection can potentially confound estimates of genetic drift. To address this challenge, we develop and validate a method to jointly infer genetic drift and measurement noise from time-series lineage frequency data. Our method is highly scalable to increasingly large genomic datasets, which overcomes a limitation in commonly used phylogenetic methods. We apply this method to over 490,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences from England collected between March 2020 and December 2021 by the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium and separately infer the strength of genetic drift for pre-B.1.177, B.1.177, Alpha, and Delta. We find that even after correcting for measurement noise, the strength of genetic drift is consistently, throughout time, higher than that expected from the observed number of COVID-19 positive individuals in England by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude, which cannot be explained by literature values of superspreading. Our estimates of genetic drift suggest low and time-varying establishment probabilities for new mutations, inform the parametrization of SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary models, and motivate future studies of the potential mechanisms for increased stochasticity in this system. Author summary: The transmission of pathogens like SARS-CoV-2 is strongly affected by chance effects in the contact process between infected and susceptible individuals, collectively referred to as random genetic drift. We have an incomplete understanding of how genetic drift changes across time and locations. To address this gap, we developed a computational method that infers the strength of genetic drift from time series genomic data that corrects for non-biological noise and is computationally scalable to the large numbers of sequences available for SARS-CoV-2, overcoming a major challenge of existing methods. Using this method, we quantified the strength of genetic drift for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England throughout time and across locations. These estimates constrain potential mechanisms and help parameterize models of SARS-CoV-2 evolution. More generally, the computational scalability of our method will become more important as increasingly large genomic datasets become more common. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Physical inactivity within an ageing population is an ongoing public health concern for policymakers. Engagement in sport forms a foundation of policy designed to encourage physical activity participation and improve health and wellbeing. This study aimed to (i) understand the extent to which older adults participate in sport and the (ii) correlates that predict this involvement within an English population sample of older adults. A further aim was (iii) to examine the extent in which sports participation may vary due to the opportunity provided across Active Partnerships in England. To address this, a multi-level analysis framed through COM-B was conducted of the 2021 English Active Lives dataset (i.e., during the COVID-19 pandemic). The Active Lives survey provides population-level insight into sport, exercise, and physical activity participation across England. It samples upwards of n = 180,000 participants beyond the age of 16 years and asks questions on factors that influence participation. Our findings drawn from a sample of n = 68,808 older adults (i.e., >60-years of age) indicate that when accounting for variation across regions sports participation was significantly predicted by age (β = -.246, p =.040) and multiple deprivation (β =.706, p =.030). Further, our analysis suggests sports participation across regions is associated with changes in the perceptions of opportunity to participate (β = -28.70, p =.001). As the UK transitions from the COVID-19 pandemic, findings have implications for the promotion of sports participation for older adults, in that local, regional, and national stakeholders must do more to change perceptions of social and physical opportunity within an ageing population. This may be achieved through adaptations to the recreational sporting landscape, raising awareness, and supportive policy changes on a national level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]