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Ensembles are a well established machine learning paradigm, leading to accurate and robust models, predominantly applied to predictive modeling tasks. Ensemble models comprise a finite set of diverse predictive models whose combined output is expected to yield an improved predictive performance as compared to an individual model. In this paper, we propose a new method for learning ensembles of process-based models of dynamic systems. The process-based modeling paradigm employs domain-specific knowledge to automatically learn models of dynamic systems from time-series observational data. Previous work has shown that ensembles based on sampling observational data (i.e., bagging and boosting), significantly improve predictive performance of process-based models. However, this improvement comes at the cost of a substantial increase of the computational time needed for learning. To address this problem, the paper proposes a method that aims at efficiently learning ensembles of process-based models, while maintaining their accurate long-term predictive performance. This is achieved by constructing ensembles with sampling domain-specific knowledge instead of sampling data. We apply the proposed method to and evaluate its performance on a set of problems of automated predictive modeling in three lake ecosystems using a library of process-based knowledge for modeling population dynamics. The experimental results identify the optimal design decisions regarding the learning algorithm. The results also show that the proposed ensembles yield significantly more accurate predictions of population dynamics as compared to individual process-based models. Finally, while their predictive performance is comparable to the one of ensembles obtained with the state-of-the-art methods of bagging and boosting, they are substantially more efficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, with the development of computer science, deep learning is held as competent enough to solve the problem of inference and learning in high dimensional space. Therefore, it has received unprecedented attention from both the academia and the business community. Compared with CPU/GPU, FPGA has attracted much attention for its high-energy efficiency, short development cycle and reconfigurability in the aspect of deep learning algorithm. However, because of the limited research on OpenCL optimization on FPGA of deep learning algorithms, OpenCL tools and models applied to CPU/GPU cannot be directly used on FPGA. This makes it difficult for software programmers to use FPGA when implementing deep learning algorithms for a rewarding performance. To solve this problem, this paper proposed an OpenCL computational model based on FPGA template architecture to optimize the time-consuming convolution layer in deep learning. The comparison between the program applying the computational model and the corresponding optimization program provided by Xilinx indicates that the former is 8-40 times higher than the latter in terms of performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Filter or screening methods are often used as a preprocessing step for reducing the number of variables used by a learning algorithm in obtaining a classification or regression model. While there are many such filter methods, there is a need for an objective evaluation of these methods. Such an evaluation is needed to compare them with each other and also to answer whether they are at all useful, or a learning algorithm could do a better job without them. For this purpose, many popular screening methods are partnered in this paper with three regression learners and five classification learners and evaluated on ten real datasets to obtain accuracy criteria such as R-square and area under the ROC curve (AUC). The obtained results are compared through curve plots and comparison tables in order to find out whether screening methods help improve the performance of learning algorithms and how they fare with each other. Our findings revealed that the screening methods were useful in improving the prediction of the best learner on two regression and two classification datasets out of the ten datasets evaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a face recognition algorithm based on a combination of vector quantization (VQ) and Markov stationary features (MSF). The VQ algorithm has been shown to be an effective method for generating features; it extracts a codevector histogram as a facial feature representation for face recognition. Still, the VQ histogram features are unable to convey spatial structural information, which to some extent limits their usefulness in discrimination. To alleviate this limitation of VQ histograms, we utilize Markov stationary features (MSF) to extend the VQ histogram-based features so as to add spatial structural information. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm by achieving recognition results superior to those of several state-of-the-art methods on publicly available face databases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

DNA-binding proteins play pivotal roles in alternative splicing, RNA editing, methylating and many other biological functions for both eukaryotic and prokaryotic proteomes. Predicting the functions of these proteins from primary amino acids sequences is becoming one of the major challenges in functional annotations of genomes. Traditional prediction methods often devote themselves to extracting physiochemical features from sequences but ignoring motif information and location information between motifs. Meanwhile, the small scale of data volumes and large noises in training data result in lower accuracy and reliability of predictions. In this paper, we propose a deep learning based method to identify DNA-binding proteins from primary sequences alone. It utilizes two stages of convolutional neutral network to detect the function domains of protein sequences, and the long short-term memory neural network to identify their long term dependencies, an binary cross entropy to evaluate the quality of the neural networks. When the proposed method is tested with a realistic DNA binding protein dataset, it achieves a prediction accuracy of 94.2% at the Matthew’s correlation coefficient of 0.961. Compared with the LibSVM on the arabidopsis and yeast datasets via independent tests, the accuracy raises by 9% and 4% respectively. Comparative experiments using different feature extraction methods show that our model performs similar accuracy with the best of others, but its values of sensitivity, specificity and AUC increase by 27.83%, 1.31% and 16.21% respectively. Those results suggest that our method is a promising tool for identifying DNA-binding proteins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Broken water pumps continue to impede efforts to deliver clean and economically-viable water to the global poor. The literature has demonstrated that customers’ health benefits and willingness to pay for clean water are best realized when clean water infrastructure performs extremely well (>99% uptime). In this paper, we used sensor data from 42 Afridev-brand handpumps observed for 14 months in western Kenya to demonstrate how sensors and supervised ensemble machine learning could be used to increase total fleet uptime from a best-practices baseline of about 70% to >99%. We accomplish this increase in uptime by forecasting pump failures and identifying existing failures very quickly. Comparing the costs of operating the pump per functional year over a lifetime of 10 years, we estimate that implementing this algorithm would save 7% on the levelized cost of water relative to a sensor-less scheduled maintenance program. Combined with a rigorous system for dispatching maintenance personnel, implementing this algorithm in a real-world program could significantly improve health outcomes and customers’ willingness to pay for water services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prediction of memory performance (remembered or forgotten) has various potential applications not only for knowledge learning but also for disease diagnosis. Recently, subsequent memory effects (SMEs)—the statistical differences in electroencephalography (EEG) signals before or during learning between subsequently remembered and forgotten events—have been found. This finding indicates that EEG signals convey the information relevant to memory performance. In this paper, based on SMEs we propose a computational approach to predict memory performance of an event from EEG signals. We devise a convolutional neural network for EEG, called ConvEEGNN, to predict subsequently remembered and forgotten events from EEG recorded during memory process. With the ConvEEGNN, prediction of memory performance can be achieved by integrating two main stages: feature extraction and classification. To verify the proposed approach, we employ an auditory memory task to collect EEG signals from scalp electrodes. For ConvEEGNN, the average prediction accuracy was 72.07% by using EEG data from pre-stimulus and during-stimulus periods, outperforming other approaches. It was observed that signals from pre-stimulus period and those from during-stimulus period had comparable contributions to memory performance. Furthermore, the connection weights of ConvEEGNN network can reveal prominent channels, which are consistent with the distribution of SME studied previously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of Lithium-ion batteries is closely related to the capacity degeneration trajectories. Due to the self-charging and the capacity regeneration, the trajectories have the property of multimodality. Traditional prediction models such as the support vector machines (SVM) or the Gaussian Process regression (GPR) cannot accurately characterize this multimodality. This paper proposes a novel RUL prediction method based on the Gaussian Process Mixture (GPM). It can process multimodality by fitting different segments of trajectories with different GPR models separately, such that the tiny differences among these segments can be revealed. The method is demonstrated to be effective for prediction by the excellent predictive result of the experiments on the two commercial and chargeable Type 1850 Lithium-ion batteries, provided by NASA. The performance comparison among the models illustrates that the GPM is more accurate than the SVM and the GPR. In addition, GPM can yield the predictive confidence interval, which makes the prediction more reliable than that of traditional models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to predict what courses a student may enroll in the coming semester plays a pivotal role in the allocation of learning resources, which is a hot topic in the domain of educational data mining. In this study, we propose an innovative approach to characterize students’ cross-college course enrollments by leveraging a novel contextual graph. Specifically, different kinds of variables, such as students, courses, colleges and diplomas, as well as various types of variable relations, are utilized to depict the context of each variable, and then a representation learning algorithm node2vec is applied to extracting sophisticated graph-based features for the enrollment analysis. In this manner, the relations between any pair of variables can be measured quantitatively, which enables the variable type to transform from nominal to ratio. These graph-based features are examined by the random forest algorithm, and experiments on 24,663 students, 1,674 courses and 417,590 enrollment records demonstrate that the contextual graph can successfully improve analyzing the cross-college course enrollments, where three of the graph-based features have significantly stronger impacts on prediction accuracy than the others. Besides, the empirical results also indicate that the student’s course preference is the most important factor in predicting future course enrollments, which is consistent to the previous studies that acknowledge the course interest is a key point for course recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the growing interest in prediction-based word embedding learning methods, it remains unclear as to how the vector spaces learnt by the prediction-based methods differ from that of the counting-based methods, or whether one can be transformed into the other. To study the relationship between counting-based and prediction-based embeddings, we propose a method for learning a linear transformation between two given sets of word embeddings. Our proposal contributes to the word embedding learning research in three ways: (a) we propose an efficient method to learn a linear transformation between two sets of word embeddings, (b) using the transformation learnt in (a), we empirically show that it is possible to predict distributed word embeddings for novel unseen words, and (c) empirically it is possible to linearly transform counting-based embeddings to prediction-based embeddings, for frequent words, different POS categories, and varying degrees of ambiguities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time-evolving random forest classifier that leverages unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Missing data is a common problem in many research fields and is a challenge that always needs careful considerations. One approach is to impute the missing values, i.e., replace missing values with estimates. When imputation is applied, it is typically applied to all records with missing values indiscriminately. We note that the effects of imputation can be strongly dependent on what is missing. To help make decisions about which records should be imputed, we propose to use a machine learning approach to estimate the imputation error for each case with missing data. The method is thought to be a practical approach to help users using imputation after the informed choice to impute the missing data has been made. To do this all patterns of missing values are simulated in all complete cases, enabling calculation of the “true error” in each of these new cases. The error is then estimated for each case with missing values by weighing the “true errors” by similarity. The method can also be used to test the performance of different imputation methods. A universal numerical threshold of acceptable error cannot be set since this will differ according to the data, research question, and analysis method. The effect of threshold can be estimated using the complete cases. The user can set an a priori relevant threshold for what is acceptable or use cross validation with the final analysis to choose the threshold. The choice can be presented along with argumentation for the choice rather than holding to conventions that might not be warranted in the specific dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]