1. Predicting colorectal cancer risk from adenoma detection via a two-type branching process model
- Author
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Lang, Brian M, Kuipers, Jack, Misselwitz, Benjamin, Beerenwinkel, Niko, and University of Zurich
- Subjects
Adenoma ,Male ,Databases, Factual ,Colon ,QH301-705.5 ,2804 Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience ,Surgical and Invasive Medical Procedures ,610 Medicine & health ,Adenoma Cells ,Research and Analysis Methods ,Carcinomas ,Models, Biological ,1311 Genetics ,Risk Factors ,1312 Molecular Biology ,Medicine and Health Sciences ,Humans ,Biology (General) ,Probability ,Colorectal Cancer ,Cultured Tumor Cells ,Models, Statistical ,Approximation Methods ,Simulation and Modeling ,Incidence ,Cancers and Neoplasms ,Biology and Life Sciences ,Computational Biology ,Reproducibility of Results ,Endoscopy ,Cell Cultures ,Adenomas ,Gastrointestinal Tract ,10219 Clinic for Gastroenterology and Hepatology ,1105 Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,Oncology ,Physical Sciences ,Female ,Biological Cultures ,Anatomy ,Colorectal Neoplasms ,2303 Ecology ,Digestive System ,Mathematics ,2611 Modeling and Simulation ,1703 Computational Theory and Mathematics ,Research Article ,SEER Program - Abstract
Despite advances in the modeling and understanding of colorectal cancer development, the dynamics of the progression from benign adenomatous polyp to colorectal carcinoma are still not fully resolved. To take advantage of adenoma size and prevalence data in the National Endoscopic Database of the Clinical Outcomes Research Initiative (CORI) as well as colorectal cancer incidence and size data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, we construct a two-type branching process model with compartments representing adenoma and carcinoma cells. To perform parameter inference we present a new large-size approximation to the size distribution of the cancer compartment and validate our approach on simulated data. By fitting the model to the CORI and SEER data, we learn biologically relevant parameters, including the transition rate from adenoma to cancer. The inferred parameters allow us to predict the individualized risk of the presence of cancer cells for each screened patient. We provide a web application which allows the user to calculate these individual probabilities at https://ccrc-eth.shinyapps.io/CCRC/. For example, we find a 1 in 100 chance of cancer given the presence of an adenoma between 10 and 20mm size in an average risk patient at age 50. We show that our two-type branching process model recapitulates the early growth dynamics of colon adenomas and cancers and can recover epidemiological trends such as adenoma prevalence and cancer incidence while remaining mathematically and computationally tractable., PLoS Computational Biology, 16 (2), ISSN:1553-734X, ISSN:1553-7358
- Published
- 2020
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