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The global proliferation of harmful algal blooms poses an increasing threat to water resources, recreation and ecosystems. Predicting the occurrence of these blooms is therefore needed to assist water managers in making management decisions to mitigate their impact. Evaluation of the potential for forecasting of algal blooms using the phytoplankton community model PROTECH was undertaken in pseudo-real-time. This was achieved within a data assimilation scheme using the Ensemble Kalman Filter to allow uncertainties and model nonlinearities to be propagated to forecast outputs. Tests were made on two mesotrophic lakes in the English Lake District, which differ in depth and nutrient regime. Some forecasting success was shown for chlorophyll a, but not all forecasts were able to perform better than a persistence forecast. There was a general reduction in forecast skill with increasing forecasting period but forecasts for up to four or five days showed noticeably greater promise than those for longer periods. Associated forecasts of phytoplankton community structure were broadly consistent with observations but their translation to cyanobacteria forecasts was challenging owing to the interchangeability of simulated functional species., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The release of phosphorus (P) from bed sediments to the overlying water can delay the recovery of lakes for decades following reductions in catchment contributions, preventing water quality targets being met within timeframes set out by environmental legislation (e.g. EU Water Framework Directive: WFD). Therefore supplementary solutions for restoring lakes have been explored, including the capping of sediment P sources using a lanthanum (La)-modified bentonite clay to reduce internal P loading and enhance the recovery process. Here we present results from Loch Flemington where the first long-term field trial documenting responses of phytoplankton community structure and abundance, and the UK WFD phytoplankton metric to a La-bentonite application was performed. A Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) analysis was used to distinguish natural variability from treatment effect and confirmed significant reductions in the magnitude of summer cyanobacterial blooms in Loch Flemington, relative to the control site, following La-bentonite application. However this initial cyanobacterial response was not sustained beyond two years after application, which implied that the reduction in internal P loading was short-lived; several possible explanations for this are discussed. One reason is that this ecological quality indicator is sensitive to inter-annual variability in weather patterns, particularly summer rainfall and water temperature. Over the monitoring period, the phytoplankton community structure of Loch Flemington became less dominated by cyanobacteria and more functionally diverse. This resulted in continual improvements in the phytoplankton compositional and abundance metrics, which were not observed at the control site, and may suggest an ecological response to the sustained reduction in filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP) concentration following La-bentonite application. Overall, phytoplankton classification indicated that the lake moved from poor to moderate ecological status but did not reach the proxy water quality target (i.e. WFD Good Ecological Status) within four years of the application. As for many other shallow lakes, the effective control of internal P loading in Loch Flemington will require further implementation of both in-lake and catchment-based measures. Our work emphasizes the need for appropriate experimental design and long-term monitoring programmes, to ascertain the efficacy of intervention measures in delivering environmental improvements at the field scale., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Phoslock(®) is increasingly used worldwide to control sediment phosphorus (P) release and cyanobacterial blooms despite the fact that little is known about its mode of action in lake bed sediments. This study quantified the effects of Phoslock(®) on sediment elemental composition and P fractionation (one year pre- and post-application of 170 g Phoslock(®) m(-2)) in an attempt to address these knowledge gaps. Post-application, sediment La content was significantly higher in the top 10 cm of the sediment compared to pre-application conditions. Mass balance calculations indicated that the applied mass of La had the potential to bind 25% of potentially release-sensitive P (Pmobile; sum 'labile P', 'reductant-soluble P' and 'organic P' fraction) present in the top 4 cm or 10% of Pmobile present in the top 10 cm of the sediment. Assessing variation in sediment P partitioning indicated that the application caused a significant increase in the mass of P present in the more refractory 'apatite bound P' fraction between post-application month 4 and 7 compared to Pmobile. This suggests that Phoslock(®) controls sediment P release by increasing the mass of P permanently bound in the sediment. To address uncertainty in estimating product dose required to control sediment P release we conducted laboratory assays using intact sediment cores to which we added serial additions of Phoslock(®) under either aerobic or anaerobic conditions. The laboratory experiment indicated that the original dose to Loch Flemington was sufficient to control sediment P release under aerobic conditions but that significant P release will occur should prolonged anaerobic conditions persist. However, Phoslock(®) may be a viable option to control sediment P-release under anaerobic conditions which would require an estimated additional application of up to 510 g Phoslock(®) m(-2). A conceptual model is proposed for the use of P-capping agents in lake remediation projects which is likely to increase cost-effectiveness and reduce non-target effects by applying multiple smaller doses compared to a single high dose., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)