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Aims: Multiple risk scores to predict ischaemic stroke (IS) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have been developed. This study aims to systematically review these scores, their validations and updates, assess their methodological quality, and calculate pooled estimates of the predictive performance.Methods and Results: We searched PubMed and Web of Science for studies developing, validating, or updating risk scores for IS in AF patients. Methodological quality was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). To assess discrimination, pooled c-statistics were calculated using random-effects meta-analysis. We identified 19 scores, which were validated and updated once or more in 70 and 40 studies, respectively, including 329 validations and 76 updates-nearly all on the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2. Pooled c-statistics were calculated among 6 267 728 patients and 359 373 events of IS. For the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2, pooled c-statistics were 0.644 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.635-0.653] and 0.658 (0.644-0.672), respectively. Better discriminatory abilities were found in the newer risk scores, with the modified-CHADS2 demonstrating the best discrimination [c-statistic 0.715 (0.674-0.754)]. Updates were found for the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2 only, showing improved discrimination. Calibration was reasonable but available for only 17 studies. The PROBAST indicated a risk of methodological bias in all studies.Conclusion: Nineteen risk scores and 76 updates are available to predict IS in patients with AF. The guideline-endorsed CHA2DS2-VASc shows inferior discriminative abilities compared with newer scores. Additional external validations and data on calibration are required before considering the newer scores in clinical practice.Clinical Trial Registration: ID CRD4202161247 (PROSPERO). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Whether hyperkalaemia in CKD is chronic or transient, and whether this has different outcome implications, is not known. Methods This was an observational study of adults with CKD G3–5 from Stockholm, Sweden 2006–11. We examined individual trajectories of potassium from all measurements obtained through routine outpatient care. For each month of follow-up, we created a rolling assessment of the proportion of time in which potassium was abnormal during the previous 12 months. We defined patterns of hyperkalaemia as transient (≤50% of time during the previous year with potassium >5.0 mmol/L) and chronic (>50% of time with potassium >5.0 mmol/L), and examined whether previous hyperkalaemia pattern offers additional predictive value beyond that provided by the most recent (current) potassium value. Results We included 36 511 participants (56% women) with CKD G3–5 and median estimated glomerular filtration rate 46 mL/min/1.73 m2. Transient and chronic hyperkalaemia, respectively, were observed in 15% and 4% of patients with CKD G3a, and in 50% and 17% of patients with CKD G5. In fully adjusted models, transient (hazard ratio 1.36, 95% confidence interval 1.29–1.46) or chronic (1.16, 1.04–1.32) hyperkalaemia patterns, but not current hyperkalaemia, were associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), compared with normokalaemia. Transient hyperkalaemia (1.43, 1.35–1.52) and current potassium values, but not chronic hyperkalaemia, were associated with the risk of death. Conclusions Between 4% and 17% of patients with CKD G3–5 develop chronic hyperkalaemia. In general, hyperkalaemia predicted MACE and death; however, the lack of effect of current potassium on MACE when adjusted for the previous pattern, and the stronger effects on death than on MACE, lead us to question whether hyperkalaemia is causal in these relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Randomized controlled trials on drug safety and effectiveness are the foundation of medical evidence, but they may have limited generalizability and be unpowered to detect rare and long-term kidney outcomes. Observational studies in routine care data can complement and expand trial evidence on the use, safety and effectiveness of medications and aid with clinical decisions in areas where evidence is lacking. Access to routinely collected large healthcare data has resulted in the proliferation of studies addressing the effect of medications in patients with kidney diseases and this review provides an introduction to the science of pharmacoepidemiology to critically appraise them. In this first review we discuss the concept and applications of pharmacoepidemiology, describing methods for drug-utilization research and discussing the strengths and caveats of the most commonly used study designs to evaluate comparative drug safety and effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational pharmacoepidemiological studies using routinely collected healthcare data are increasingly being used in the field of nephrology to answer questions on the effectiveness and safety of medications. This review discusses a number of biases that may arise in such studies and proposes solutions to minimize them during the design or statistical analysis phase. We first describe designs to handle confounding by indication (e.g. active comparator design) and methods to investigate the influence of unmeasured confounding, such as the E-value, the use of negative control outcomes and control cohorts. We next discuss prevalent user and immortal time biases in pharmacoepidemiology research and how these can be prevented by focussing on incident users and applying either landmarking, using a time-varying exposure, or the cloning, censoring and weighting method. Lastly, we briefly discuss the common issues with missing data and misclassification bias. When these biases are properly accounted for, pharmacoepidemiological observational studies can provide valuable information for clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims  The increasing prevalence of ischaemic stroke (IS) can partly be explained by the likewise growing number of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Risk scores have been developed to identify high-risk patients, allowing for personalized anticoagulation therapy. However, predictive performance in CKD is unclear. The aim of this study is to validate six commonly used risk scores for IS in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients across the spectrum of kidney function. Methods and results  Overall, 36 004 subjects with newly diagnosed AF from SCREAM (Stockholm CREAtinine Measurements), a healthcare utilization cohort of Stockholm residents, were included. Predictive performance of the AFI, CHADS2, Modified CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, ATRIA, and GARFIELD-AF risk scores was evaluated across three strata of kidney function: normal kidney function [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) >60 mL/min/1.73 m2], mild CKD (eGFR 30–60 mL/min/1.73 m2), and advanced CKD (eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m2). Predictive performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration. During 1.9 years, 3069 (8.5%) patients suffered an IS. Discrimination was dependent on eGFR: the median c-statistic in normal eGFR was 0.75 (range 0.68–0.78), but decreased to 0.68 (0.58–0.73) and 0.68 (0.55–0.74) for mild and advanced CKD, respectively. Calibration was reasonable and largely independent of eGFR. The Modified CHADS2 score showed good performance across kidney function strata, both for discrimination [c-statistic: 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.77–0.79), 0.73 (0.71–0.74) and 0.74 (0.69–0.79), respectively] and calibration. Conclusion  In the most clinically relevant stages of CKD, predictive performance of the majority of risk scores was poor, increasing the risk of misclassification and thus of over- or undertreatment. The Modified CHADS2 score performed good and consistently across all kidney function strata, and should therefore be preferred for risk estimation in AF patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction People undergoing maintenance dialysis are at high risk for fractures, but less is known about fracture incidence and associated outcomes in earlier stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Methods We conducted an observational analysis from the Stockholm Creatinine Measurement project, a Swedish health care utilization cohort during 2006–11. We identified all adults with confirmed CKD Stages 3–5 and no documented history of fractures and extracted information on comorbid history, ongoing medication, cardiovascular events and death. We studied incidence rates of fractures (overall and by location), with the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) as time-dependent exposure. We then studied hazard ratios [HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs)] for the events of death and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) using Cox regression with fracture as time-varying exposure. Results We identified 68 764 individuals with confirmed CKD (mean age 79 years, 56% women). During a median follow-up of 2.7 years, 9219 fractures occurred, of which 3105 were hip fractures. A more severe CKD stage was associated with a higher risk of fractures, particularly hip fractures: compared with CKD Stage 3a, the adjusted HR was 1.10 (95% CI 1.02–1.19), 1.32 (1.17–1.49) and 2.47 (1.94–3.15) for CKD Stage 3b, 4 and 5, respectively. Spline curves suggested a linear association with fracture risk with an eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m2. Compared with non-fracture periods, incident fracture was associated with a 4-fold increased mortality within 90 days [HR 4.21 (95% CI 3.95–4.49)]. The risk remained elevated beyond 90 days [HR 1.47 (95% CI 1.40–1.54)] and was stronger after hip fractures. Post-fracture MACE risk was also highest in the first 90 days [HR 4.02 (95% CI 3.73–4.33)], particularly after hip fractures, and persisted beyond 90 days [HR 1.20 (95% CI 1.10–1.30)]. Conclusion Our findings highlight the commonness of fractures and the increased risk for subsequent adverse outcomes in CKD patients. These results may inform clinical decisions regarding post-fracture clinical surveillance and fracture prevention strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Little is known about the health sequelae of pneumonia in persons with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Methods We studied adults with CKD in Stockholm during 2006–11, who not previously been diagnosed with lower respiratory tract infections. We used multivariable-adjusted Cox regression with pneumonia as a time-varying exposure to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence intervals (CIs)] for the events of death, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), acute kidney injury (AKI), CKD progression or hospitalization for urinary tract infections (UTIs)/sepsis. Cataract and knee/joint replacement served as negative control outcomes. Results We identified 71 931 adults (mean age 79 years, 59% women), of whom 8379 (12%) were diagnosed with pneumonia during follow-up; incident pneumonia was associated with 10 times higher adjusted mortality risk during the first 90 days [HR = 10.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.5–10.5] and double the mortality beyond 90 days from pneumonia diagnosis (HR = 2.0; 95% CI 1.9–2.1). Incident pneumonia was similarly associated with higher adjusted risk of MACE (<90 days: HR = 12.6; 95% CI 12.0–13.3; ≥90 days: HR = 1.5; 95% CI 1.4–1.6). The adjusted risk of CKD progression and UTI/sepsis hospitalization was highest within 90 days from pneumonia but remained elevated thereafter. For AKI, the association with incident pneumonia was only seen within 90 days. Neither cataract nor knee/joint replacement was related to pneumonia. Conclusions Incident pneumonia was associated with increased risks of MACE, CKD progression, severe UTI/sepsis and death, with risks highest soon after pneumonia diagnosis but extending beyond 90 days. Our findings highlight the susceptibility for adverse outcomes of CKD patients following pneumonia diagnosis, and may inform clinical decisions regarding vaccination strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Despite long-standing clinical use of sodium polystyrene sulphonate (SPS) for hyperkalaemia management in chronic kidney disease (CKD), its safety profile remains poorly investigated. Methods We undertook an observational analysis of nephrology-referred adults with incident CKD Stage 4+ in Sweden during 2006–16 and with no previous SPS use. We studied patterns of use and adverse events associated to SPS initiation during follow-up. Patterns of SPS use were defined by chronicity of treatment and by prescribed dose. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with SPS initiation (time-varying exposure) for the risk of severe (intestinal ischaemia, thrombosis or ulceration/perforation) and minor (de novo dispensation of laxatives or anti-diarrheal drugs) gastrointestinal (GI) events. Results Of 19 530 SPS-naïve patients with CKD, 3690 initiated SPS during follow-up. A total of 59% took SPS chronically, with an average of three dispensations/year. The majority (85%) were prescribed lower dosages than specified on the product label. During follow-up, 202 severe and 1149 minor GI events were recorded. SPS initiation was associated with a higher incidence of severe adverse events [adjusted HR 1.25 95% CI 1.05–1.49)], particularly in those receiving per label doses [1.54 (1.09–2.17)] and mainly attributed to ulcers and perforations. SPS initiation was also associated with higher incidence of minor GI events [adjusted HR 1.11 (95% CI 1.03–1.19)], regardless of dose, and mainly accounted for by de novo dispensation of laxatives. Conclusions Initiation of SPS in patients with advanced CKD is associated with a higher risk of severe GI complications as well as the initiation of GI-related medications, particularly when prescribed at per label doses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims The choice between initiating a non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) and a vitamin K antagonist (VKA) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) may be challenging. To assist in this decision, we developed a risk score to identify patients for whom a therapeutic benefit of NOACs over VKA is predicted. Methods and results ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 was a randomized clinical trial of edoxaban vs. warfarin in 21 105 patients with AF. Cox proportional hazard models identified factors associated with a serious net clinical outcome (NCO) of disabling stroke, life-threatening bleeding, and all-cause mortality in VKA naïve patients from the warfarin arm. These were used to develop an integer risk score. Performance was assessed by C-indices and validation by bootstrapping. Kaplan-Meier analyses were stratified by three score categories and treatment arm. Over a median of 2.7 years, 457 NCO events occurred in 2898 patients with a total person-time of 7549.5 years (6.05%/year). The risk prediction model (C = 0.693) for the NCO was translated into a 17-point integer score, with annualized event rates for the low, intermediate, and high-risk categories in the warfarin arm of 3.5%, 9.9%, and 20.8%, respectively. Therapeutic benefit of higher- and lower-dose edoxaban over warfarin was demonstrated in the high- and intermediate-risk, with equal benefit in the low-risk categories (P-interaction 0.008 and 0.014, respectively). Conclusion In VKA naive patients with AF, the TIMI-AF score can assist in the prediction of a poor composite outcome and guide selection of anticoagulant therapy by identifying a differential clinical benefit with a NOAC or VKA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Silver-induced selective pressure is becoming increasingly important due to the growing use of silver (Ag) as an antimicrobial agent in biomedical and commercial products. With demonstrated links between environmental resistomes and clinical pathogens, it is important to identify microbial profiles related to silver tolerance/resistance. We investigated the effects of ionic Ag stress on soil bacterial communities and identified resistant/persistent bacterial populations. Silver treatments of 50-400 mg Ag kg-1 soil were established in five soils. Chemical lability measurements using diffusive gradients in thin-film devices confirmed that significant (albeit decreasing) labile Ag concentrations were present throughout the 9-month incubation period. Synchrotron X-ray absorption near edge structure spectroscopy demonstrated that this decreasing lability was due to changes in the Ag speciation to less soluble forms such as Ag0 and Ag2S. Real-time PCR and Illumina MiSeq screening of 16S rRNA bacterial genes showed β-diversity changes, increasing α-diversity in response to Ag pressure, and immediate and significant reductions in 16S rRNA gene counts with varying degrees of recovery. These effects were more strongly influenced by exposure time than by Ag dose at these rates. Ag-selected dominant OTUs principally resided in known persister taxa (mainly Gram positive), including metal-tolerant bacteria and slow-growing Mycobacteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic Baffin Bay between Canada and Greenland is sea ice-covered during the majority of the year, restricting primary production to the summer months. Sediments receive low amounts of mostly terrestrial- and less marine-derived organic matter. To study microbial communities constrained by physicochemical conditions changing with distance from land and ocean depth, we applied high-throughput 16S rRNA gene sequencing and compared sequence diversity with biogeochemical parameters in 40 different sediment samples. Samples originated from seven cores down to 470 cm below seafloor along a shelf-to-basin transect. Bacterial diversity decreased faster with depth in basin than in shelf sediments, suggesting higher organic matter content sustained diversity into greater depths. All samples were dominated by Betaproteobacteria (mostly order Burkholderiales), which were especially abundant in basin sediments with low organic carbon and high Mn and Fe pore water concentrations. Strong statistical correlations between concentrations of reduced Mn and/or Fe and the relative abundances of Betaproteobacteria suggest that this group is involved in metal reduction in Baffin Bay sediments. Dehalococcoidia (phylum Chloroflexi) were abundant in all samples, especially in shelf sediments with high organic content. This study indicates that Mn and/or Fe play important roles structuring microbial communities in Arctic sediments poor in organic matter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Po river plain lowland springs represent unique paradigms of managed environments. Their current locations used to be swamps that were drained 6-7 centuries ago, and they have been in constant use ever since. Our aims were to identify the effects of land use on the microbial communities of these soils, look for associated diversity drivers, and assess the applicability of ecology theories with respect to identified patterns. We screened the microbial diversity across a land use transect via high-throughput sequencing of partial 16 S r rRNA gene amplicons. Land use had a major effect on soil properties and microbial community structures. Total organic carbon and p H were major diversity drivers for Bacteria, and p H was important for Archaea. We identified the potential contribution of soil amendments to the indigenous microbial communities, and also gained insights into potential roles of taxa in the organic carbon turnover. Verrucomicrobia coincided with the higher values of the recalcitrant organic carbon. Actinobacteria and Acidobacteria correlated with the more labile organic carbon. Finally, the higher diversity found in the soils less enzymatically active and relatively poorer in nutrients, may be explained to an extent by niche-based theories such as the resource heterogeneity hypothesis and Connell's intermediate disturbance hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]