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How are the sizes of the earthquakes determined? To solve this important problem, we analysed the data from a dense temporary seismic observation network installed in the aftershock area of the 2016 Mw 6.2 Central Tottori earthquake, which occurred in an intraplate region in Japan. We compared the stress field estimated from approximately 10   000 accurate focal mechanisms of aftershocks with the calculated post-earthquake stress field and found that the differential stress before the earthquake was very small near both horizontal edges. These results did not depend significantly on the modeled slip distribution and the orientation of the principal stress before the earthquake. Similar results were obtained for the 2000 Mw 6.7 Western Tottori earthquake, which also occurred in the same intraplate region in Japan. These results suggest that the fault size of large intraplate earthquakes can be determined by the region of small differential stress surrounding future earthquake faults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncovering the distribution of magnitudes and arrival times of aftershocks is a key to comprehending the characteristics of earthquake sequences, which enables us to predict seismic activities and conduct hazard assessments. However, identifying the number of aftershocks immediately after the main shock is practically difficult due to contaminations of arriving seismic waves. To overcome this difficulty, we construct a likelihood based on the detected data, incorporating a detection function to which Gaussian process regression (GPR) is applied. The GPR is capable of estimating not only the parameters of the distribution of aftershocks together with the detection function, but also credible intervals for both the parameters and the detection function. The property that the distributions of both the Gaussian process and aftershocks are exponential functions leads to an efficient Bayesian computational algorithm to estimate hyperparameters. After its validation through numerical tests, the proposed method is retrospectively applied to the catalogue data related to the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake for the early forecasting of the aftershocks. The results show that the proposed method stably and simultaneously estimates distribution parameters and credible intervals, even within t ≤ 3 hr after the main shock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines the petrological implications of the crustal structure of central Japan. Tectonic events that influence the crustal structure of the area; Application of a traveltime inversion for velocity and interface depth to the seismic data; Role of clear P-wave reflections from intracrustal interfaces in providing constraints on the two-dimensional P- and S-wave velocity structure.