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We analyze how interdependencies in financial networks can lead to self-fulfilling insolvencies and multiple possible equilibrium outcomes. Multiplicity arises if a certain type of dependency cycle exists in the network. We show that finding the cheapest bailout policy that prevents self-fulfilling insolvencies is computationally hard, but that the optimal policy has intuitive features in some typical network structures. Leveraging indirect benefits ensures systemic solvency at a cost that never exceeds half of the overall shortfall. In core-periphery networks, it is optimal to bail out peripheral banks first as opposed to core banks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conjecture that mutual funds with large shares of outstanding bond issues are more inclined to internalize the negative price spillovers of fire sales and thus sell their holdings in those issues, to a lower extent, when they experience redemptions. We provide evidence consistent with this conjecture and further show that ownership concentration limits bonds' exposures to flow-induced fire sales. We exploit variation in negative spillovers arising from the Fed's SMCCF to confirm the economic mechanism and explore our findings' implications for fund performance and fire-sale spillovers to other funds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a method for determining whether errors in expectations explain asset pricing puzzles without imposing assumptions about the error mechanism. Using accounting identities and survey forecasts, we find that errors in expected long-term inflation explain price variation, return predictability, and the rejection of the expectations hypothesis for aggregate stock and bond markets. Errors in short-term (long-term) nominal earnings growth expectations explain (do not explain) stock price variation and return predictability. The relevant errors are consistent with mistakes about the persistence of forecasted variables and the response to surprises. A simple framework based on fundamental extrapolation successfully replicates these findings. (JEL G40, G12, G14, E71) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number of short campaigns by hedge funds has dramatically increased over the last two decades. Nearly 80% of campaigns are undertaken by activist hedge funds, particularly those that employ hostile tactics in their long campaigns. Short campaigns are associated with negative abnormal returns of –7%, with aggregate valuation effects similar in magnitude to the gains from long activism campaigns. In contrast to long campaigns, public communication is a critical component of short campaigns. We do not find evidence that such communication is manipulative. Overall, our analysis highlights the importance of short campaigns for understanding the economic impact of activist hedge funds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate a narrative factor pricing model from news text of The Wall Street Journal. Our empirical method integrates topic modeling (LDA), latent factor analysis (IPCA), and variable selection (group lasso). Narrative factors achieve higher out-of-sample Sharpe ratios and smaller pricing errors than standard characteristic-based factor models and predict future investment opportunities in a manner consistent with the ICAPM. We derive an interpretation of the estimated risk factors from narratives in the underlying article text. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Municipal bond markets began pricing sea-level rise (SLR) exposure risk in 2013, coinciding with upward revisions to worst-case SLR projections and accompanying uncertainty around these projections. The effect is larger for long-maturity bonds and not solely driven by near-term flood risk. We use a structural model of credit risk to quantify the implied economic impact and distinguish between the effects of underlying asset values and of uncertainty. The SLR exposure premium exhibits a trend different from house prices and is unaffected by house price controls. Together, our results highlight the importance of climate uncertainty in driving municipal bond prices. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Going public by merging with a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) is much more expensive than conducting a traditional IPO. We rationalize why some companies merge with a SPAC by listing the potential benefits. We analyze the agency problems that certain SPAC features address. SPAC IPO investors and deal sponsors have earned remarkably high annualized average returns, although we warn that recent deals are likely to disappoint. Public investors in the merged companies have earned very low market-adjusted returns on an equally weighted basis, although high redemptions on the worst deals have limited the amount of money that they lost. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents that U.S. equity returns are large and positive during the opening hours of European markets. These returns are pervasive and highly economically and statistically significant. Consistent with models of inventory risk, we demonstrate a strong relationship with order imbalances at the close of the preceding U.S. trading day. Rationalizing unconditionally positive "overnight drift" returns, we uncover an asymmetric reaction to demand shocks: market sell-offs generate robust positive overnight reversals, while reversals following market rallies are much more modest. We argue that demand shock asymmetry can arise in inventory management models with time-varying market maker risk-bearing capacity. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing upon more than 12 million observations over the period from 1996 to 2020, we find that allowing for nonlinearities significantly increases the out-of-sample performance of option and stock characteristics in predicting future option returns. The nonlinear machine learning models generate statistically and economically sizable profits in the long-short portfolios of equity options even after accounting for transaction costs. Although option-based characteristics are the most important standalone predictors, stock-based measures offer substantial incremental predictive power when considered alongside option-based characteristics. Finally, we provide compelling evidence that option return predictability is driven by informational frictions and option mispricing. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Factors display strong cross-sectional momentum that subsumes momentum in industries and other portfolio characteristics. The profits of all these momentum strategies—based on factors, industries, and other characteristics—significantly correlate with each other and therefore likely emanate from the same source. If factors display momentum, so will any set of portfolios with cross-sectional variation in factor loadings. Consistent with factors being at the root of momentum, we find that momentum in industry-neutral factors explains industry momentum, but industry momentum explains none of the factor momentum. Cross-sectional factor momentum concentrates in the first few highest-eigenvalue factors and is distinct from time-series factor momentum. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we infer how the estimates of firm value by "optimists" and "pessimists" evolve in response to information shocks. Specifically, we examine returns and disagreement measures for portfolios of short-sale-constrained stocks that have experienced large gains or large losses. Our analysis suggests the presence of two groups, one of which overreacts to new information and remains biased over about 5 years, and a second group, which underreacts and whose expectations are unbiased after about 1 year. Our results have implications for the belief dynamics that underlie the momentum and long-term reversal effect. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hedge fund managers' risk-taking choices are influenced by their compensation structure. We differ from most studies that focus on incentive fees and the high-water mark by examining how management fees affect managers' risk-taking. Our simple model shows that managers' risk-taking is negatively related to their future management fees. Using fund-level data, we find that future management fees are the dominant component of managers' total compensation. When the contribution of future management fees increases, managers reduce risk-taking to increase survival probabilities. Moreover, funds with higher decreasing returns to scale are more sensitive to future management fees and reduce risk-taking even more. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate unsmoothed private equity net asset values (NAVs) at weekly frequency for individual funds. Using simulations and large samples of buyout and venture funds, we show that our method yields superior estimates of NAVs relative to simple approaches based on extrapolation of reported NAVs. The market beta of an average buyout (venture) fund is around 1.0 (1.4), and the total risk is 33 |$\%$| (40 |$\%$|⁠) per year. The risk-return profile of the funds varies significantly over time and across funds. Risk-taking and reporting quality appear to persist by manager. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We find evidence of selective exposure to confirmatory information among 400,000 users on the investor social network StockTwits. Self-described bulls are five times more likely to follow a user with a bullish view of the same stock than are self-described bears. Consequently, bulls see 62 more bullish messages and 24 fewer bearish messages than bears do over the same 50-day period. These "echo chambers" exist even among professional investors and are strongest for investors who trade on their beliefs. Finally, beliefs formed in echo chambers are associated with lower ex post returns, more siloing of information, and more trading volume. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We construct macroeconomic attention indexes (MAI), which are new measures of attention to different macroeconomic risks, including unemployment and monetary policy. Individual MAI tend to increase around related announcements and following changes in related fundamentals. Further, bad news raises attention more than good news. For unemployment and FOMC, attention predicts announcement risk premiums and implied volatility changes with large economic magnitudes. Our findings support theories of endogenous attention and announcement risk premiums, while demonstrating future research directions, including that announcements can raise new concerns. Macroeconomic announcements are important not only for contents and timing but also for attention. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates that value-relevant information about a firm appearing in regulatory disclosures of other firms is overlooked by investors. Firms highly mentioned in the 10-K competition section of other firms tend to outperform with risk-adjusted returns of up to 9 |$\%$| annually. Outperformance is concentrated in firms whose competition references are made in the context of targeting rather than admiration. Consistent with investor inattention, abnormal returns stem from cross-sector competition mentions as well as firms with low-analyst coverage. Moreover, highly mentioned firms exhibit improved fundamentals in subsequent years, further signifying they are underpriced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I estimate a life cycle model of portfolio choices that incorporates the relationship between market returns and the skewness of idiosyncratic income shocks. The cyclicality of skewness can explain (a) low stock market participation among young households, (b) why the equity share of participants slightly increases until retirement, and (c) why renters invest less in stocks than do homeowners. With a relative risk aversion of 6 and yearly participation cost of $250, the model matches the evolution of wealth, participation, and conditional equity shares over the life cycle. Nevertheless, cyclical skewness increases the equity premium by at most 0.5 percentage points. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that international portfolios reflect the underlying heterogeneity in investors' beliefs. Using data on the foreign sovereign debt holdings of European banks matched with their forecasts on future bond yields, we find that expecting higher returns and having more accurate forecasts are associated with larger bond holdings. Crucially, the elasticity of portfolio holdings to expected returns is increasing in the precision of the forecast, implying that investors optimally exploit comparative advantages in information production. We rationalize the results in a model in which partial information specialization arises endogenously by introducing a degree of unlearnable uncertainty about asset payoffs. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a return variance decomposition model to distinguish the roles of different types of information and noise in stock price movements. We disentangle four components: noise, private firm-specific information revealed through trading, firm-specific information revealed through public sources and market-wide information. Overall, we find that 31 |$\%$| of the return variance is from noise, 24 |$\%$| from private firm-specific information, 37 |$\%$| from public firm-specific information and 8 |$\%$| from market-wide information. Since the mid-1990s, there has been a dramatic decline in noise and an increase in firm-specific information, consistent with increasing market efficiency. The Internet Appendix that accompanies this paper can be obtained here: https://bit.ly/3FcV9UR [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the empirical implications of the investment-based model of asset pricing for the Hansen-Jagannathan and Kozak-Nagel-Santosh discount factors in the linear span of equity returns. We find that the stochastic discount factors satisfying the Euler equation for equity returns cannot satisfy the Euler equation for investment returns because returns on corporate investment covary inversely with the sources of equity risk relative to returns on equity. As a result, the model fails to replicate the level of the risk premium. Our results suggest that joint restrictions on the optimality of investment and consumption pose stringent conditions for candidate production models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The return expectations of public pension funds are positively related to cross-sectional differences in past performance. This positive relation operates through the expected risk premium, rather than the expected risk-free rate or inflation rate. Pension funds act on their beliefs and adjust their portfolio composition accordingly. Persistent investment skills, risk taking, efforts to reduce costly rebalancing, and fiscal incentives from unfunded liabilities cannot fully explain the reliance of expectations on past performance. The results are consistent with extrapolative expectations, since the dependence on past returns is greater when executives have personally experienced longer performance histories with the fund. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The debt-to-GDP ratio negatively predicts cumulative nominal consumption growth up to a 10-year horizon, resulting from the ratio's ability to forecast lower inflation and real growth. Moreover, the debt-to-GDP ratio is positively associated with yield spreads. I rationalize these facts in a model in which positive shocks to government debt cause lower inflation and growth, making bonds attractive assets. Furthermore, because longer-term bonds are less exposed to current debt shock than are shorter-term bonds, they are better hedges, resulting in high yield spreads in high-debt states. The model highlights the importance of fiscal risk in understanding the Treasury bond market. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We exploit a U.K. government-sponsored product and provide evidence on shared equity mortgages. The analysis shows how the interaction of house price growth and leverage regulation promotes product adoption. Following an increase in the equity limit, households use the additional financing to buy more expensive properties rather than reduce leverage. Equity used as a complement to debt is likely less beneficial for financial stability than when used as a substitute. Equity borrowers are less likely to change lenders when refinancing their senior debt. Finally, we measure the equity provider returns, which are affected by selection and undervaluation at repayment. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hedge fund positions are an important component of crowded trades. These vehicles are particularly active, take highly concentrated positions, and utilize leverage and short sales. Using a database of hedge fund holdings, we measure the degree of security-level crowdedness. The difference between the average returns on portfolios sorted by high versus low crowdedness portfolios is sizable, and the variation in the realized portfolio returns is distinct from other traditional risk factors. Further, hedge fund exposures to crowdedness are often significant, and they help to explain downside "tail risk," as funds with higher exposures experience relatively larger drawdowns during periods of industry distress. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that institutional investors are more likely to invest in firms from regions to which they have stronger social ties but find no evidence that these investments earn a differential return. Firms in regions with stronger social ties to locations with many institutional investors have higher valuations and liquidity. These effects are largest for small firms with little analyst coverage, suggesting that the investors' behavior is explained by their increased awareness of firms in socially proximate locations. Our results highlight that the social structure of regions affects firms' access to capital and contributes to geographic differences in economic outcomes. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the information contained in foreign exchange (FX) volume using a novel data set from the over-the-counter market. We find volume helps predict next-day currency returns and is economically valuable for currency investors. Predictability implies a stronger return reversal for currency pairs with abnormally low volume and is driven by the component of volume unrelated to volatility, liquidity, and order flow. We rationalize these findings via a simple model, in which FX volume helps reveal the degree of asymmetric information in currency markets. Testing this prediction shows that asymmetric information is uniform across currency pairs but varies across instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that mutual fund investors rely on simple signals and likely do not engage in sophisticated learning about managers' alpha as widely believed. Simplistic performance chasing best explains aggregate flows to the mutual fund space and flows across funds. These results hold for both actively managed and passive index funds. Empirical patterns commonly interpreted as reflecting learning about managerial skill also appear in falsification tests and are mechanical. Our results are consistent with the view that, on average, households are homo sapiens with limited financial sophistication rather than hyperrational alpha-maximizing agents, as often assumed in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that constraints can improve financial decision-making by disciplining behavioral biases. In financial markets, restrictions on leverage limit traders' ability to borrow to open new positions. We demonstrate that regulation that restricts the provision of leverage to retail traders improves trading performance. By increasing the opportunity cost of postponing the realization of losses, leverage constraints improve traders' market timing and reduce their disposition effect. We replicate these findings in two distinct experimental settings, further isolating the mechanism and demonstrating generality of the results. The interaction between constraints and behavioral biases has implications for policy and choice architecture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We identify long-lived pricing errors through a model in which inattentive investors arrive stochastically to trade. The model's parameters are structurally estimated using daily NYSE market-maker inventories, retail order flows, and prices. The estimated model fits empirical variances, autocorrelations, and cross-autocorrelations among our three data series from daily to monthly frequencies. Pricing errors for the typical NYSE stock have a standard deviation of 3.2 percentage points and a half-life of 6.2 weeks. These pricing errors account for 9.4 |$\%$|⁠ , 7.0 |$\%$|⁠ , and 4.5 |$\%$| of the respective daily, monthly, and quarterly idiosyncratic return variances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both large oil price increases and decreases are associated with deteriorating economic conditions. The projection of the state price density (SPD) onto oil returns estimated from oil futures and option prices displays a U-shaped pattern. Because investors assign high state prices to large negative and large positive oil returns, the U-shaped SPD may steepen in either tail when economic conditions deteriorate. The positive return region of the SPD is more closely related to economic conditions. The oil SPD contains information about economic conditions and future security returns that is distinct from the information in the stock index SPD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investors' perception of performance is biased because the relevant measure, returns, is rarely displayed. Major indices ignore dividends, thereby underreporting market performance. Newspapers are more pessimistic on ex-dividend days, consistent with mistaking the index for returns. Market betas should track returns, but track prices more than dividends, creating predictable returns. Mutual funds receive inflows for "beating the S&P 500" price index based on net asset value (also not a return). Investors extrapolate market indices, not returns, when forming annual performance expectations. Displaying returns by default would ameliorate these issues, which arise despite high attention and agreement on the appropriate measure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the implementation of a hybrid renewable-energy system to satisfy the electricity requirements of a building. The analysis is based on optimization calculations performed using HOMER software. The components of the simulated hybrid renewable-energy system include photovoltaics, generators powered by biogas, converters and a grid. The input data utilized by the HOMER software are derived from measurements and surveys. The electric load curve is obtained through measurements at the location of the case study. Through surveys, parameters pertaining to the components of the hybrid renewable-energy system were gathered. The analysis was carried out using two sensitivity variables, namely electricity price and grid reliability. On the basis of these two sensitivity variables, optimal system configuration, net present cost, energy cost, return on investment, internal rate of return and payback period were analysed. The results of the analysis indicated that reducing subsidies, which results in higher electricity prices, provided opportunities for economically competitive hybrid renewable-energy systems. With electricity prices of US$0.094/kWh, the return of investment and the internal rate of return increased to 15% and 19%, respectively, and the payback period decreased to 5.3 years. When a hybrid renewable-energy system is implemented in regions with low grid reliability, the same phenomenon occurs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We establish that cryptocurrency returns are driven and can be predicted by factors that are specific to cryptocurrency markets. Cryptocurrency returns are exposed to cryptocurrency network factors but not cryptocurrency production factors. We construct the network factors to capture the user adoption of cryptocurrencies and the production factors to proxy for the costs of cryptocurrency production. Moreover, there is a strong time-series momentum effect, and proxies for investor attention strongly forecast future cryptocurrency returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uncovers that expected excess bond returns display a positive correlation with the slope of the yield curve (i.e. yield spread) in expansions but a negative correlation in recessions. We use a macro-finance term structure model with different market prices of risk in expansions and recessions to show that a very accommodating monetary policy in recessions is a key driver of this switch in return predictability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A broader definition of infertility is the incapacity to have the intended number of children. However, most literature on ART exclusively focuses on live birth as an outcome, rather than on the capacity to fully realize the reproductive wishes of the couples. This issue has probably received scant attention because the total fertility rate is below replacement levels in affluent countries, and one may simplistically assume that only a minority of couples may be interested in more than one child. This assumption, however, is unproven and presumably erroneous. Unfortunately, evidence on the rate of return in couples who conceived their first child with ART is scant and information on the intended number of children in infertile couples is lacking. In general, we plea for more research on this subject. The documentation of an intended number of children above two and a high return rate in infertile couples may lead to changes in clinical practice, such as the storage of oocytes or embryos prior to initiating embryo transfers. This could improve the chance of conceiving the second child when the couple comes back some years later. In addition, the identification of the determinants for non-return as well as those explaining the gap between the intended and the realized number of children may reveal specific barriers and possibly how to tackle them. However, at present, available evidence is insufficient to advocate any intervention. Thorough research is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a discrepancy between CAPM-implied and realized returns. Using the CAPM in capital budgeting—as recommended in textbooks—should thus have real effects. For instance, low beta projects should be valued more by CAPM users than by the market. We test this hypothesis using M&A data and show that bids for low-beta private targets entail lower bidder returns. We provide further support by testing several ancillary predictions. Our analyses suggest that using the CAPM when valuing targets leads to valuation errors (relative to the market's view) corresponding on average to 12% to 33% of the deal values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the out-of-sample performance of variables shown to forecast future mutual fund alphas. The degree of predictability, as measured by alpha spreads from quintile sorts or cross-sectional regression slopes, falls by at least half post-sample. These declines appear to be primarily the result of changes in the level of arbitrage activity in the market, with mutual fund competition appearing to play a secondary role. We find no evidence that the declines are the result of data snooping or learning by investors or fund managers. Finally, we show that corporate bond fund performance exhibits similar dependence on measures of bond market arbitrage activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using U.S. equity mutual fund data, we show that portfolio pumping—an illegal trading activity that artificially inflates year- and quarter-end portfolio returns—is more pronounced among single-managed funds compared with team-managed ones. The return inflation by team-managed funds is 45% lower than by single-managed funds at year-ends. Also, portfolio pumping decreases as team size increases. These results are driven by peer effects among teams and, sometimes, amplified by less convex flow-performance relation in team-managed funds. Our findings are robust to differences in fund governance, manager career concerns, local networks, fund family policies, and changes in the SEC's enforcement policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a model in which overconfident investors overestimate their own signal quality but are skeptical of others' Investors who are initially uninformed believe that early-informed investors have learned little, leading the former investors to provide excess liquidity, which, in turn, causes underreaction and short-run momentum. Skeptical investors can also react to stale information, causing momentum, followed by reversals. Hence, skepticism generates both momentum and reversals; the latter are amplified if investors overassess their own signal precision. We explain how long-run reversals can disappear while shorter-term momentum prevails, provide empirical implications, and link momentum to liquidity and price efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I document that dividend growth and returns on the aggregate U.S. stock market are more correlated with consumption growth in bad economic times. In a consumption-based asset pricing model with a generalized disappointment-averse investor and small, IID consumption shocks, this feature results in a realistic equity premium despite low risk aversion. The model is consistent with the main facts about stock market risk premiums inferred from equity index options, remains tightly parameterized, and allows for analytical solutions for asset prices. An extension with non-IID dynamics accounts for excess volatility and return predictability, while preserving the model's consistency with option moments. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We identify flight-to-safety (FTS) days for twenty-three countries using only stock and bond returns and a model averaging approach. FTS days comprise less than 2% of the sample and are associated with a 2.7% average bond-equity return differential and significant flows out of equity funds and into government bond and money market funds. FTS represents flights to both quality and liquidity in international equity markets, but mainly a flight to quality in the U.S. corporate bond market. Emerging markets, endowment funds, and hedge funds perform poorly during FTS, whereas hedge funds appear to vary their systematic exposures prior to an FTS. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Researchers have long known about backfill bias in hedge fund databases. The most common treatments include either retaining all backfilled returns or truncating a fixed number of returns from each return series. However, we show that truncation largely preserves backfilled returns and document that either of these backfill treatments can lead to biased empirical findings, including cross-sectional results. Thus, our findings show that the best practice for empirical tests is to remove returns prior to the listing date. Because most databases do not have listing dates, we propose a novel method to infer unavailable listing dates. Received August 19, 2018; editorial decision December 4, 2018 by Editor Wei Jiang. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a systemic, information-theoretic model of competitive capital-market functioning that can account for the observed statistical regularities in cross-sectional distributions of the logarithm of Tobin's q for US non-financial corporations since 1962. The model considers capital markets as a self-organizing system driven by competitive interactions among investors and corporate managers. The persistent pattern of organization we observe in those distributions is primarily defined by the efforts of corporate managers to appropriate arbitrage capital gains defined by heterogeneity across individual measures of the logarithm of Tobin's q. Competition ensures the structures of security prices shaped by those efforts reflect an aggregate tradeoff between the gross returns and costs they pose to corporate managers. The distributions are also influenced by the endogenous, competitive formation of the opportunity cost of capital corporations face, which is conditioned by what investors come to expect to be a typical or general expected rate of return on assets across all corporations. In addition to offering an economic account of what we observe, the resulting framework defines new conceptualizations and aggregate measures of the informational and allocative performance of capital markets. Those suggest the performance of US capital markets has deteriorated since the 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diabetes Action Canada Strategy for Patient-Oriented Research (SPOR) Network in Chronic Disease was formed in 2016 and is funded primarily through the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR). We propose a novel mixed-methods approach to a network evaluation integrating the State of Network Evaluation framework and the Canadian Academy of Health Sciences (CAHS) preferred framework and indicators. We measure key network themes of connectivity, health and results, and impact and return on investment associated with health research networks. Our methods consist of a longitudinal cross-sectional network survey of members and social network analysis to examine Network Connectivity and assess the frequency of interactions, the topics discussed during them, and how networking effectively facilitates interactions and collaboration among members. Network Health will be evaluated through semistructured interviews, a membership survey inquiring about satisfaction and experience with the Network, and a review of documentary sources related to funding and infrastructure to evaluate Network Sustainability. Finally, we will examine Network Results and Impact using the CAHS preferred framework and indicators to measure returns on investment in health research across the five domains of the CAHS framework, which include: advancing knowledge, capacity building, informing decision making, health impact, and economic and social impact. Indicators will be assessed with various methods, including bibliometric analyses, review of relevant documentary sources (annual reports), member activities informing health and research policy, and Patient Partner involvement. The Network Evaluation will provide members and stakeholders with information for planning, improvements, and funding future Network endeavors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a novel, risk-based theory of the effects of exchange rate stabilization. In our model, the choice of exchange rate regime allows policymakers to make their currency, and by extension, the firms in their country, a safer investment for international investors. Policies that induce a country's currency to appreciate when the marginal utility of international investors is high lower the required rate of return on the country's currency and increase the world-market value of domestic firms. Applying this logic to exchange rate stabilizations, we find a small economy stabilizing its bilateral exchange rate relative to a larger economy can increase domestic capital accumulation, domestic wages, and even its share in world wealth. In the absence of policy coordination, small countries optimally choose to stabilize their exchange rates relative to the currency of the largest economy in the world, which endogenously emerges as the world's "anchor currency", Larger economies instead optimally choose to float their exchange rates. The model therefore predicts an equilibrium pattern of exchange rate arrangements that is remarkably similar to the one in the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Enhancing interoperability of bioinformatics knowledge bases is a high-priority requirement to maximize data reusability and thus increase their utility such as the return on investment for biomedical research. A knowledge base may provide useful information for life scientists and other knowledge bases, but it only acquires exchange value once the knowledge base is (re)used, and without interoperability, the utility lies dormant. Results In this article, we discuss several approaches to boost interoperability depending on the interoperable parts. The findings are driven by several real-world scenario examples that were mostly implemented by Bgee, a well-established gene expression knowledge base. To better justify the findings are transferable, for each Bgee interoperability experience, we also highlight similar implementations by major bioinformatics knowledge bases. Moreover, we discuss ten general main lessons learned. These lessons can be applied in the context of any bioinformatics knowledge base to foster data reusability. Conclusions This work provides pragmatic methods and transferable skills to promote reusability of bioinformatics knowledge bases by focusing on interoperability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a tractable equilibrium asset pricing model with cumulative prospect theory (CPT) preferences. Using GMM on a sample of U.S. equity index option returns, we show that by introducing a single common probability weighting parameter for both tails of the return distribution, the CPT model can simultaneously generate the otherwise puzzlingly low returns on both out-of-the-money put and out-of-the-money call options as well as the high observed variance premium. In a dynamic setting, probability weighting and time-varying equity return volatility combine to match the observed time-series pattern of the variance premium. Received May 30, 2017; editorial decision August 10, 2018 by Editor Andrew Karolyi. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the introduction of a wealth-management robo-adviser that constructs portfolios tailored to investors' holdings and preferences. Adopters are similar to non-adopters in terms of demographics and prior interactions with human advisers but tend to be more active and have greater assets under management. Investors adopting robo-advising experience diversification benefits. Ex ante undiversified investors increase stock holdings and hold portfolios with less volatility and better returns. Already well-diversified investors hold fewer stocks, yet see some reduction in volatility, and trade more after adoption. All investors increase attention based on online account logins. We find that adopters exhibit declines in prominent behavioral biases, including the disposition, trend chasing, and rank effect. Our results emphasize the promises and pitfalls of robo-advising tools, which are becoming ubiquitous all over the world. Received May 31, 2017; editorial decision August 21, 2018 by Editor Wei Jiang. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data from U.S. public firms show that in booms large firms finance with debt and payout equity, whereas small firms issue both equity and debt. Therefore, large firms generally substitute between debt and equity financing over the business cycle, whereas small firms adhere to a procyclical financing policy for debt and equity. We explain these cyclical financing patterns quantitatively using a heterogeneous firm model with endogenous firm dynamics. We find that cross-sectional differences in investment returns and, therefore, funding needs and exposures to financial frictions are essential to understanding how firms' financing policies respond to macroeconomic shocks. Received December 24, 2016; editorial decision April 24, 2018 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a protocol for identifying genuine risk factors. A genuine risk factor must be related to the covariance matrix of returns, must be priced in the cross-section of returns, and should yield a reward-to-risk ratio that is reasonable enough to be consistent with risk pricing. A market factor, a profitability factor, and traded versions of macroeconomic factors pass our protocol, but many characteristic-based factors do not. Several of the underlying characteristics, however, do command premiums in the cross-section. Received July 20, 2017; editorial decision June 9, 2018 by Editor Andrew Karolyi. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]