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Background: Measuring population health and costs effects of liberalizing access to electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) is an evolving field with high persisting uncertainty. A critical area of uncertainty for policy-makers are estimates of net harms from ENDS relative to cigarettes, therefore, we model these harms using updated estimates incorporating disease specificity.Methods: We use updated estimates of relative harm of vaping vs smoking, based upon relevant biomarker studies to model the impact of liberalizing access to ENDS in New Zealand (NZ), relative to a ban (where ENDS are not legally available), in an existing proportional multi-state life-table model of 16 tobacco-related diseases.Results: This modeling suggests that ENDS liberalization results in an expected gain of 195 000 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over the remainder of the NZ population's lifespan. There was wide uncertainty in QALYs gained (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = -8000 to 406 000) with a 3.2% probability of net health loss (based upon the number of simulation runs returning positive QALY gains). The average per capita health gain was 0.044 QALYs (equivalent to an extra 16 days of healthy life). Health system cost-savings were expected to be NZ$2.8 billion (US$2.1 billion in 2020 US$; 95%UI: -0.3 to 6.2 billion [2011 NZ$]), with an estimated 3% chance of a net increase in per capita cost.Conclusions: This updated modeling around liberalizing ENDs in NZ, still suggests likely net health and cost-saving benefits-but of lesser magnitude than previous work and with a small possibility of net harm to population health.Implications: This study found evidence using updated biomarker studies that ENDS liberalization could result in QALY gains across the New Zealand population lifespan that are also cost-saving to the health system. Governments should include the information from these types of modeling studies in their decision-making around potentially improving access to ENDS for existing smokers, while at the same further reducing access to tobacco. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: People with a DNA mismatch repair (MMR) gene mutation have a substantially elevated risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) but the modifiers of this risk are not well established. We investigated the association between dietary supplement intake and CRC risk for carriers.Methods: This study included 1966 (56% female) carriers of an MMR gene mutation (719 MLH1, 931 MSH2, 211 MSH6 and 105 PMS2) who were recruited from the USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand into the Colon Cancer Family Registry between 1997 and 2012. Information on lifestyle factors including supplement intake was collected at the time of recruitment. Using Cox proportional hazards regression weighted to correct for ascertainment bias, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between self-reported multivitamin, calcium and folic acid supplement intake and CRC risk.Results: Of 744 carriers with CRC, 18%, 6% and 5% reported intake of multivitamin, calcium and folic acid supplements for at least 1 month, respectively, compared with 27%, 11% and 10% of 1222 carriers without CRC. After adjusting for identified confounding variables, a decreased CRC risk was associated with multivitam inintake for at least 3 years (HR 0.47, 95% CI 0.32-0.69) and calcium intake for at least 3 years(HR 0.42, 95% CI 0.23-0.74), compared with never users. There was no evidence of an association between folic acid supplement intake and CRC risk (P = 0.82).Conclusion: Intake of multivitamin and calcium supplements might be associated with a decreased risk of CRC for MMR gene mutation carriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Inheritance of a germline mutation in one of the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2 causes a high risk of colorectal and other cancers (Lynch Syndrome). Use of aspirin has been shown to be associated with a reduced risk of colorectal cancer for the general population as well as for MMR gene mutation carriers. The aim of this study was to determine whether use of aspirin and ibuprofen in a nontrial setting is associated with the risk of colorectal cancer risk for MMR gene mutation carriers. Methods: We included 1858 participants in the Colon Cancer Family Registry who had been found to have a pathogenic germline mutation in a MMR gene (carriers). We used weighted Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: A total of 714 carriers (38%) were diagnosed with colorectal cancer at a mean age of 42.4 (standard deviation 10.6) years. A reduced risk of colorectal cancer was associated with aspirin use (for 1 month to 4.9 years: HR = 0.49, 95% CI = 0.27 to 0.90, P = .02; for ≥5 years: HR = 0.25, 95% CI = 0.10 to 0.62, P = .003) and ibuprofen use (for 1 month to 4.9 years: HR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.18 to 0.79, P = .009; for ≥5 years: HR = 0.26, 95% CI = 0.10 to 0.69, P = .007), compared with less than one month of use. Conclusion: Our results provide additional evidence that, for MMR gene mutation carriers, use of aspirin and ibuprofen might be effective in reducing their high risk of colorectal cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A response from the author of the article "Long-term effect of aspirin on cancer risk in carriers of hereditary colorectal cancer: an analysis from the CAPP2 randomised controlled trial" in the 2011 issue is presented.