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Focuses on the role of the major Quaternary fault segments and to test the possible relationships between faults and earthquakes in Italy. Analysis of seismic reflection lines in the Ionian offshore; Characterization of faults in a vertical slip rates; Integration of geological and geophysical data on seismic profiles.

Dense strong motion and high-rate Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) networks have been deployed in central Italy for rapid seismic source determination and corresponding hazard mitigation. Different from previous studies for the consistency between two kinds of sensor at collocated stations, here we focus on the combination of high-rate GNSS displacement waveforms with collocated seismic strong motion accelerators, and investigate its application to image rupture history. Taking the 2016 August 24 Mw 6.1 Central Italy earthquake as a case study, we first generate more accurate and longer period seismogeodetic displacement waveforms by a Kalman filter, then model the rupture behaviour through a joint inversion including seismogeodetic waveforms and InSAR observations. Our results reveal that strong motion data alone can overestimate the magnitude and mismatch the GNSS observations, while 1 Hz sampling rate GNSS is insufficient and the displacement is too noisy to depict rupture process. By contrast, seismogeodetic data enhances temporal resolution and maintains the static offsets that provide vital constraint to the reliable estimation of earthquake magnitude. The obtained model is close to the jointly inverted one. Our work demonstrates the unique usefulness of seismogeodesy for fast seismic hazard response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stimulated by the recent advances in computational tools for the simulation of seismic wave propagation problems in realistic geological configurations, this paper presents a 3D physicsbased numerical analysis of near-source ground motion during the MW 6.0 2012 May 29 earthquake in the Po Plain, Northern Italy. To reproduce with sufficient accuracy some of the most peculiar features of the near-source strong-motion records and of the spatial variability of damage distribution, this study required a sequence of investigations, starting from the analysis of a wide set of near-source records, to the calibration of an improved kinematic seismic source model, up to the development of a 3D numerical model of the portion of the Po Plain interested by the earthquake. The latter includes the basin geometry, characterized by sediment thickness sharply varying from few tens of metres to some kilometres. The spatial resolution of the numerical model is suitable to propagate frequencies up to about 1.5 Hz. Numerical simulations were performed using the open-source high-performance code SPEED, based on the Discontinuous Galerkin Spectral Elements method. The 3D numerical model, coupled with the updated slip distribution along the rupturing fault, proved successful to reproduce with good agreement, measured through quantitative goodness-of-fit criteria, the most relevant features of the observed ground motion. These include: (i) the large fault normal velocity peaks at the near-source stations driven by updip directivity effects; (ii) the small-scale variability at short distance from the source, resulting in the out-of-phase motion at stations separated by only 3 km distance; (iii) the propagation of prominent trains of surface waves, especially in the Northern direction; (iv) the map of earthquake-induced ground uplift with maximum values of about 10 cm, in substantial agreement with geodetic measurements and (v) the two-lobed pattern of the peak ground velocity map, well correlated with the distribution of macroseismic intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ShakeMap package uses empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) to estimate the ground motion where recorded data are not available. The GMPEs, however, account only for average characteristics of source and wave propagation processes and the ground motion estimate can fail in the near-source area when few stations are available.In this study, we investigate the performance of ShakeMap in the near-fault area when source effects are included at different levels of complexity. We focus on the 2008, Mw 7.0, Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku (Japan) earthquake because of the large amount of recording stations which contribute to the definition of a reference shakemap. After shutting off some stations from the original data set, we evaluate the resulting shakemaps bias as if the earthquake was recorded at a smaller number of receivers. We then compute the shakemaps replacing the missing records with synthetic seismograms from a hybrid deterministic-stochastic method for extended fault. We suppose an increasing knowledge of seismic source approximation and of the slip history on the fault, obtained both from the expeditious inversion of teleseismic data and, afterwards, from strong-motion data inversion. In particular, a non-linear kinematic inversion technique allowed us to retrieve a complete kinematic description of the source process on the fault plane.Our results reveal that the integration of real data with synthetics is quite efficient, providing reliable shaking maps mainly when near source recordings are scarce. However, the accuracy of the fault plane position plays a major role in increasing the effectiveness of the results.We then apply the methodology to a poorly instrumented earthquake of similar magnitude, the 1980, Ms 6.9, Irpinia (Southern Italy) earthquake. When the peak motions inferred from synthetic seismograms are included in the database, the fit with respect to the observed Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg intensities improves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accurate determination of locations and magnitudes of seismic events in a monitored region is important for many scientific, industrial and military studies and applications; for these purposes a wide variety of seismic networks are deployed throughout the world. It is crucial to know the performance of these networks not only in detecting and locating seismic events of different sizes throughout a specified source region, but also by evaluating their location errors as a function of the magnitude and source location. In this framework, we have developed a method for evaluating network performance in surface and borehole seismic monitoring. For a specified network geometry, station characteristics and a target monitoring volume, the method determines the lowest magnitude of events that the seismic network is able to detect (Mwdetect), and locate (Mwloc) and estimates the expected location and origin time errors for a specified magnitude. Many of the features related to the seismic signal recorded at a single station are considered in this methodology, including characteristics of the seismic source, the instrument response, the ambient noise level, wave propagation in a layered, anelastic medium and uncertainties on waveform measures and the velocity model. We applied this method to two different network typologies: a local earthquake monitoring network, Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet), installed along the Campania-Lucania Apennine chain in Southern Italy, and a hypothetic borehole network for monitoring microfractures induced during the hydrocarbon extraction process in an oil field. The method we present may be used to aid in enhancing existing networks and/or understanding their capabilities, such as for the ISNet case study, or to optimally design the network geometry in specific target regions, as for the borehole network example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the first application of a time reverse location method in a volcanic setting, for a family of long-period (LP) events recorded on Mt Etna. Results are compared with locations determined using a full moment tensor grid search inversion and cross-correlation method. From 2008 June 18 to July 3, 50 broad-band seismic stations were deployed on Mt Etna, Italy, in close proximity to the summit. Two families of LP events were detected with dominant spectral peaks around 0.9 Hz. The large number of stations close to the summit allowed us to locate all events in both families using a time reversal location method. The method involves taking the seismic signal, reversing it in time, and using it as a seismic source in a numerical seismic wave simulator where the reversed signals propagate through the numerical model, interfere constructively and destructively, and focus on the original source location. The source location is the computational cell with the largest displacement magnitude at the time of maximum energy current density inside the grid. Before we located the two LP families we first applied the method to two synthetic data sets and found a good fit between the time reverse location and true synthetic location for a known velocity model. The time reverse location results of the two families show a shallow seismic region close to the summit in agreement with the locations using a moment tensor full waveform inversion method and a cross-correlation location method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On-site earthquake early warning (EEW) systems represent an important way to reduce seismic hazard. Since these systems are fast in providing an alert and reliable in the prediction of the ground motion intensity at targets, they are particularly suitable in the areas where the seismogenic zones are close to cities and infrastructures, such as Central Italy. In this work, we use Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR) to predict peak ground acceleration (PGA), and hypocentral distance (D) starting from P -wave features. We use two data sets of waveforms from two seismic sequences in Central Italy: L'Aquila sequence (2009) and the Amatrice–Norcia–Visso sequence (2016–2017), for a total of about 80   000 three-component waveforms. We compute 60 different features related to the physics of the earthquake using three different time windows (1 s, 2 s and 3 s). We validate and train our models using the 2016–2017 data sets (the bigger one) and we test it on the 2009 data set. We study the performances of GBR predicting D and PGA in terms of prediction scores, finding that the models can well predict both targets even using 1 s window, and that, as expected, the results improve using longer time windows. Moreover, we perform a residual analysis on the test set finding that the PGA can be predicted without any bias, while the D prediction presents a correlation with the moment magnitude. In the end, we propose a prototype for a probabilistic on-site EEW system based on the prediction of D and PGA. The proposed system is a threshold-based approach and it releases an alert on four possible levels, from 0 (far and small event) to 3 (close and strong event). The system computes the probability related to each alert level. We test two different set of thresholds: the Felt Alert and the Damage Alert. Furthermore, we consider the lead time (LT) of the PGA to distinguish between useful alerts (positive LT) and Missed Alerts (MA). In the end, we analyse the performance of such a system considering four possible scenarios: Successful Alert (SA), Missed Alert (MA), Overestimated Alert (OA) and Underestimated Alert (UA). We find that the system obtains SA rate about 80 per cent at 1 s, and that it decreases to about 65 per cent due to the increase in MA. This result shows how the proposed system is already reliable at 1 s, which would be a huge advantage for seismic prone regions as Central Italy, an area characterized by moderate-to-large earthquakes (M w < 7). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the results from a fully unconstrained moment tensor inversion of induced seismic events in a complex and high seismic hazard region (Val d'Agri basin, Southern Italy). The study area hosts two well-documented cases of induced microseismicity linked to (i) a wastewater injection well of a giant oilfield (the largest in onshore Europe), and (ii) severe seasonal level changes of an artificial lake. In order to gather information on the non-double-couple components of the source and to better understand the rupture mechanisms, we analyse seismic events recorded during daily injection tests in the disposal well. The computed moment tensors have significant non-double-couple components that correlate with the well-head injection pressure. The injection parameters strongly influence the rupture mechanism that can be interpreted as due to the opening/closing of a fracture network inside a fault zone of a pre-existing thrust fault. For the case of the reservoir-induced seismicity, no direct correlations are observed with the loading/unloading of the reservoir. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding mechanical processes occurring on faults requires detailed information on the microseismicity that can be enhanced today by advanced techniques for earthquake detection. This problem is challenging when the seismicity rate is low and most of the earthquakes occur at depth. In this study, we compare three detection techniques, the autocorrelation FAST, the machine learning EQTransformer, and the template matching EQCorrScan, to assess their ability to improve catalogues associated with seismic sequences in the normal fault system of Southern Apennines (Italy) using data from the Irpinia Near Fault Observatory (INFO). We found that the integration of the machine learning and template matching detectors, the former providing templates for the cross-correlation, largely outperforms techniques based on autocorrelation and machine learning alone, featuring an enrichment of the automatic and manual catalogues of factors 21 and 7, respectively. Since output catalogues can be polluted by many false positives, we applied refined event selection based on the cumulative distribution of their similarity level. We can thus clean up the detection lists and analyse final subsets dominated by real events. The magnitude of completeness decreases by more than one unit compared to the reference value for the network. We report b -values associated with sequences smaller than the average, likely corresponding to larger differential stresses than for the background seismicity of the area. For all the analysed sequences, we found that main events are anticipated by foreshocks, indicating a possible preparation process for main shocks at subkilometric scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robustness of source parameter estimates is a fundamental issue in understanding the relationships between small and large events; however, it is difficult to assess how much of the variability of the source parameters can be attributed to the physical source characteristics or to the uncertainties of the methods and data used to estimate the values. In this study, we apply the coda method by Mayeda et al. using the coda calibration tool (CCT), a freely available Java-based code (https://github.com/LLNL/coda-calibration-tool) to obtain a regional calibration for Central Italy for estimating stable source parameters. We demonstrate the power of the coda technique in this region and show that it provides the same robustness in source parameter estimation as a data-driven methodology [generalized inversion technique (GIT)], but with much fewer calibration events and stations. The Central Italy region is ideal for both GIT and coda approaches as it is characterized by high-quality data, including recent well-recorded seismic sequences such as L'Aquila (2009) and Amatrice–Norcia–Visso (2016–2017). This allows us to apply data-driven methods such as GIT and coda-based methods that require few, but high-quality data. The data set for GIT analysis includes ∼5000 earthquakes and more than 600 stations, while for coda analysis we used a small subset of 39 events spanning 3.5 <  M w < 6.33 and 14 well-distributed broad-band stations. For the common calibration events, as well as an additional 247 events (∼1.7 <  M w < ∼5.0) not used in either calibration, we find excellent agreement between GIT-derived and CCT-derived source spectra. This confirms the ability of the coda approach to obtain stable source parameters even with few calibration events and stations. Even reducing the coda calibration data set by 75 per cent, we found no appreciable degradation in performance. This validation of the coda calibration approach over a broad range of event size demonstrates that this procedure, once extended to other regions, represents a powerful tool for future routine applications to homogeneously evaluate robust source parameters on a national scale. Furthermore, the coda calibration procedure can homogenize the M w estimates for small and large events without the necessity of introducing any conversion scale between narrow-band measures such as local magnitude (M L) and M w, which has been shown to introduce significant bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY: Defining the regional variability of minimum magnitude for earthquake detection is crucial for planning seismic networks. Knowing the earthquake detection magnitude values is fundamental for the optimal location of new stations and to select the priority for reactivating the stations of a seismic network in case of a breakdown. In general, the assessment of earthquake detection is performed by analysing seismic noise with spectral or more sophisticated methods. Further, to simulate amplitude values at the recording sites, spectral methods require knowledge of several geophysical parameters including rock density, S- wave velocity, corner frequency, quality factor, site specific decay parameter and so on, as well as a velocity model for the Earth's interior. The simulation results are generally expressed in terms of M w and therefore a further conversion must be done to obtain the values of local magnitude (M L), which is the parameter commonly used for moderate and small earthquakes in seismic catalogues. Here, the relationship utilized by a seismic network to determine M L is directly applied to obtain the expected amplitude [in mm, as if it were recorded by a Wood–Anderson (WA) seismometer] at the recording site, without any additional assumptions. The station detection estimates are obtained by simply considering the ratio of the expected amplitude with respect to the background noise, also measured in mm. The seismic noise level for the station is estimated starting from four waveforms (each signal lasting 1 min) sampled at various times of the day for a period of one week. The proposed method is tested on Italian seismic events occurring in 2019 by using the locations of 16.879 earthquakes recorded by 374 stations. The first results indicate that by evaluating the station noise level with 5-s windows, a representative sample of the variability in expected noise level is generated for every station, even if only 4 min of signal per day over a week of recordings is used. The method was applied to define the detection level of the Italian National Seismic Network (RSN). The RSN detection level represents a reference for the definition and application of guidelines in the field of monitoring of subsurface industrial activities in Italy. The proposed approach can be successfully applied to define the current performance of a local seismic network (managed by private companies) and to estimate the expected further improvements, requested to fulfil the guidelines with the installation of new seismic stations. This method has been tested in Italy and can be reproduced wherever the local magnitude M L, based on synthetic WA records, is used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the results of the analysis for the seismic source tensor of all events withbelonging to the Moggio Udinese swarm (1988 February, eight events analysed), and of the three events of the swarm that occurred between 1993 July 22 and 26 in the Tricesimo area. The latter sequence is particularly relevant for the assessment of seismic risk of Friuli (northeast Italy), since it is close to the densely populated area of Udine. We use a waveform inversion algorithm which allows us to retrieve the moment tensor rate functions (MTRFs) that can be factored into a moment tensor and a source time function (STF). From the orientation of theP-axis and of the nodal planes we can hypothesize that the Moggio Udinese swarm (P-axis orientated globally between southeast–northwest and east–west) reflects the influence of both the southeastern Alpine and external Dinaric stress field, while in the Tricesimo swarm (in which theP-axis orientations varies between southeast–northwest and north–south) the southeastern Alpine stress field seems to act on faults oriented southeast–northwest, belonging to the external Dinaric system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a probabilistic framework based on the conjunction of states of information between data and model, to jointly retrieve earthquake source parameters and anelastic attenuation factor from inversion of displacement amplitude spectra. The evaluation of the joint probability density functions (PDFs) enables us to take into account between-parameter correlations in the final estimates of the parameters and related uncertainties. Following this approach, we first search for the maximum of the a posteriori PDF through the basin hopping technique that couples a global exploration built on a Markov chain with a local deterministic maximization. Then we compute statistical indicators (mean, variance and correlation coefficients) on source parameters and anelastic attenuation through integration of the PDF in the vicinity of the maximum likelihood solution. Definition of quality criteria based on the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and similarity of the marginal PDFs with a Gaussian function enable us to define the frequency domain for the inversion and to get rid of unconstrained solutions. We perform synthetic tests to assess theoretical correlations as a function of the SNR and to define the minimum bandwidth around the corner frequency for consistent parameter resolution. As an application, we finally estimate the source parameters for the 2016–2017 Central Italy seismic sequence. We found that the classical scaling between the seismic moment and the corner frequency holds, with an average stress drop of |$\Delta \sigma = 2.1 \pm 0.3\,\,{\rm {MPa}}$|⁠. However, the main events in the sequence exhibit a stress drop larger than the average value. Finally, the small seismic efficiency indicates a stress overshoot, possibly due to dynamic effects or large frictional efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our understanding of earthquake sources is limited by the availability and the quality of observations and the fidelity of our physical models. Uncertainties in our physical models will naturally bias our inferences of subsurface fault slip. These uncertainties will always persist to some level as we will never have a perfect knowledge of the Earth's interior. The choice of the forward physics is thus ambiguous, with the frequent need to fix the value of several parameters such as crustal properties or fault geometry. Here, we explore the impact of uncertainties related to the choice of both fault geometry and elastic structure, as applied to the 2016  M w 6.2 Amatrice earthquake, central Italy. This event, well instrumented and characterized by a relatively simple fault morphology, allows us to explore the role of uncertainty in basic fault parameters, such as fault dip and position. We show that introducing uncertainties in fault geometry in a static inversion reduces the sensitivity of inferred models to different geometric assumptions. Accounting for uncertainties thus helps infer more realistic and robust slip models. We also show that uncertainties in fault geometry and Earth's elastic structure significantly impact estimated source models, particularly if near-fault observations are available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Amatrice–Norcia–Visso sequence is characterized by complex behaviour that is somewhat atypical of main-shock–aftershock sequences, as there were multiple large main shocks that continued for months. In this study we focus on the Amatrice sequence (main shock 2016 August 24, M w = 5.97) to evaluate the apparent stress values and magnitude-dependent scaling in order to improve our knowledge of processes that control small and large earthquakes within this active region of Italy. Apparent stress is proportional to the ratio of radiated seismic energy and seismic moment, and as such, these stress parameters play an important role in hazard prediction as they have a strong effect on the observed and predicted ground shaking. We analyse 83 events of the sequence from 2016 August 24 to October 16, within a radius of 20 km from the main shock and with an M w ranging between 5.97 and 2.72. Taking advantage of the averaging nature of coda waves, we analyse coda-envelope-based spectral ratios between neighbouring event pairs. We use equations proposed by Walter et al. to consider stable, low-frequency and high-frequency spectral ratio levels which provide measures of the corner frequency and apparent stress ratios of the events within the sequence. The results demonstrate non-self-similar behaviour within the sequence, suggesting a change in dynamics between the largest events and the smaller aftershocks. The apparent stress and corner frequency estimates are compared to those obtained by Malagnini and Munafò who utilized hundreds of direct S -wave spectral ratio measurements to obtain their results. Although our analysis is based only on 83 events, our results are in very good agreement, demonstrating once more that the use of coda waves is very stable and provides lower variance measures than those using direct waves. A comparison with recent Central Apennines source scaling models derived from various seismic sequences (1997–1998 Colfiorito, 2002 San Giuliano di Puglia, 2009 L'Aquila) shows that the Amatrice sequence source scaling in this study is well represented by the models proposed by Pacor et al. and Malagnini and Mayeda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a straightforward and rapid methodology is proposed and tested to determine the seismic moment, the earthquake rupture length/duration and the static stress drop. To this purpose, three ground motion parameters, that is, P -wave peak acceleration (⁠|${P_a}$|⁠), velocity (⁠|${P_v}$|⁠) and displacement (⁠|${P_d}$|⁠) are evaluated as a function of time from the first P arrival. The average of the logarithm of the P -wave amplitude (LPDT curves), corrected for the distance-attenuation effect, is calculated using all the available stations in expanded P -wave time windows. The LPDT curves show an exponential growth shape and increase with time until they reach a constant value (plateau), which is related to the magnitude of the earthquake. From the obtained observations, we demonstrate that the corner time of the plateau level on the weighted-fit curve to the LPDT curves is related to the half-duration of the rupture. Thus, using the theoretical scaling, the source radius and stress drop can be obtained from the measured half-duration of the source. This method has been applied and tested to the records of the 2016–2017 Central Italy seismic sequence, with moment magnitude ranging between 3.4 and 6.5. Our study shows that source parameters match a self-similar, constant-stress-drop scaling with a relatively low average stress drop of about |$1.1 \pm 0.5\ \mathrm{ MPa}$|⁠, except for the largest event of the sequence showing a relatively higher stress release, which is associated with the dominant radiation from a localized high slip patch on the fracture surface. The proposed approach based on a simple time domain signal analysis is innovative and may complement longer spectral technique for fast estimating earthquake source properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the results of a multidisciplinary and multiscale study at Mt. Massico, Southern Italy. Mt. Massico is a carbonate horst located along the Campanian-Latial margin of the Tyrrhenian basin, bordered by two main NE-SW systems of faults, and by NW-SE and N-S trending faults. Our analysis deals with the modelling of the main NE- SW faults. These faults were capable during Plio-Pleistocene and are still active today, even though with scarce and low-energy seismicity (Mw maximum = 4.8). We inferred the pattern of the fault planes through a combined interpretation of 2-D hypocentral sections, a multiscale analysis of gravity field and geochemical data. This allowed us to characterize the geometry of these faults and infer their large depth extent. This region shows very striking gravimetric signatures, well-known Quaternary faults, moderate seismicity and a localized geothermal fluid rise. Thus, this analysis represents a valid case study for testing the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary approach, and employing it in areas with buried and/or silent faults of potential high hazard, such as in the Apennine chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Preferential direction in rupture propagation of earthquakes is known to have strong consequences on the azimuthal distribution of the ground motion. While source directivity effects are well established for large seismic events, their observation for moderate and small earthquakes are still restricted to a few cases. This is mainly due to intrinsic difficulties in recognizing source directivity unambiguously for less energetic/shorter ruptures. Therefore, we propose the use of multiapproach analysis for revealing the possible directivity for small-to-moderate earthquakes, taking advantage of the different sensitivity of each approach to various source and propagation characteristics. Here, we demonstrate that the application of six diverse and independent methods converges in giving consistent information on the rupture kinematics of the 2013 December 29, Mw = 5.0 earthquake. The results indicate a distinct rupture propagation direction toward S-SW, which correlates with observed asymmetry of damage and felt area. Overall, we conclude that the use of a single technique cannot provide a univocal solution, whereas the application of distinct analyses helps to strongly constrain source kinematics and should be preferred, in particular when dealing with small-to-moderate earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three 2-D Deep Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) transects, up to 6.36 km long, were obtained across the Paganica-San Demetrio Basin, bounded by the 2009 L'Aquila Mw 6.1 normal-faulting earthquake causative fault (central Italy). The investigations allowed defining for the first time the shallow subsurface basin structure. The resistivity images, and their geological interpretation, showa dissected Mesozoic-Tertiary substratum buried under continental infill of mainly Quaternary age due to the long-term activity of the Paganica-San Demetrio normal faults system (PSDFS), ruling the most recent deformational phase. Our results indicate that the basin bottom deepens up to 600 m moving to the south, with the continental infill largely exceeding the known thickness of the Quaternary sequence. The causes of this increasing thickness can be: (1) the onset of the continental deposition in the southern sector took place before the Quaternary, (2) there was an early stage of the basin development driven by different fault systems that produced a depocentre in the southern sector not related to the present-day basin shape, or (3) the fault system slip rate in the southern sector was faster than in the northern sector. We were able to gain sights into the long-term PSDFS behaviour and evolution, by comparing throw rates at different timescales and discriminating the splays that lead deformation. Some fault splays exhibit large cumulative throws (>300 m) in coincidence with large displacement of the continental deposits sequence (>100 m), thus testifying a general persistence in time of their activity as leading splays of the fault system. We evaluate the long-term (3-2.5Myr) cumulative and Quaternary throw rates of most of the leading splays to be 0.08-0.17 mm yr-1, indicating a substantial stability of the faults activity. Among them, an individual leading fault splay extends from Paganica to San Demetrio ne' Vestini as a result of a post-Early Pleistocene linkage of two smaller splays. This 15 km long fault splay can explain the Holocene surface ruptures observed to be larger than those occurred during the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, such as revealed by palaeoseismological investigations. Finally, the architecture of the basin at depth suggests that the PSDFS can also rupture a longer structure at the surface, allowing earthquakes larger than M 6.5, besides rupturing only small sections, as it occurred in 2009. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since a few decades volcanic long period (LP) events have been recorded on many active volcanoes and their study has been recognized as an important tool to characterize volcanic activity. LP event analyses through moment tensor (MT) inversions have led to kinematic descriptions of various source mechanisms. The main challenge in these inversions is to 'strip out' the propagation effect in order to isolate the source; hence the velocity model used controls the accuracy of the retrieved source mechanism. We first carry out several synthetic tests of inversions on Mt Etna volcano (Italy). Four geological models with topography are considered with increasing complexity: the most complex model is used to generate synthetic data, while the other three models are used to calculate the Green's functions for inversions. The retrieved solutions from the three velocity models are similar. The MT solutions for a deeper source are well retrieved, while a shallower source test suffers from high uncertainties and strong misinterpretation of the source orientation. The homogeneous model gives the lowest misfit value, but source location and mechanism decomposition are inaccurate. When a complex model different from the true one is used, a high misfit value and a wrong solution is obtained. We then incorporate our findings into the MT inversion of an LP event recorded on Mt Etna in 2008. We obtain very different solutions among the three models in terms of source location and mechanism decomposition. The overall shape of the retrieved source time functions are similar, but some amplitude differences arise, especially for the homogeneous model. Our work highlights the importance of including the unconsolidated surface materials in the computation of Green's functions especially when dealing with shallow sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We perform a systematic investigation of along-strike rupture directivity of 70 earthquakes (3.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 6.1) of the 2009 L'Aquila seismic sequence by analysing azimuthal variations of broad-band seismograms recorded in the distance range 60 km < R < 230 km. We use reference spectra of events with little directivity (similar to the empirical Green's function method) to deconvolve propagation-site effects and focus on source properties. A directivity index (0 ≤ IDIR ≤ 1) calculated for each earthquake quantifies the spectral separation above the corner frequency of the target event at opposite along-strike directions. A large number (73 per cent) of events including the Mw 6.1 main shock showhigh (>0.7) IDIR values indicating predominantly unilateral rupture propagation. The preferred rupture propagation direction is generally to the southeast with no dependence on the earthquake magnitude or occurrence time. Events on two main faults (L'Aquila and Campotosto) show somewhat different behaviour. Almost all earthquakes on the L'Aquila fault have strong unilateral directivity to the southeast, whereas earthquakes on the Campotosto fault show more diverse behaviour. However, there is a predominance of unilateral ruptures (14 out of 22) also on the Campotosto fault, and the few (five) earthquakes with ruptures to the northwest are limited to the most northwestern segment of the fault. The spectral results are consistent with time-domain analysis when the latter samples adequately the frequency band above corner frequency. The preferred rupture direction may be produced at least in part by a velocity contrast across the fault. The results provide important input for estimates of seismic motion and physics of earthquake ruptures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By relocation of shallow and intermediate depth earthquakes and joint evaluation of already available and properly estimated waveform inversion focal mechanisms we investigate the location and shallow kinematics of the residual subducting slab in the Calabrian Arc region, that is the only, apparently still active segment of the old subduction front of the western Mediterranean. In agreement with high P-wave velocity anomaly found at intermediate depths by previous local earthquake tomography, our shallow-to-intermediate earthquake hypocentre distribution shows that the Ionian subducting slab is still in-depth continuous only in a small internal segment of the Arc, while detachment or break-off processes have already developed elsewhere along the Arc. At the same time, the space distribution and the waveform inversion focal mechanisms of the earthquakes occurring at shallow depth (<70 km) do not evidence Subduction Transform Edge Propagator (STEP) fault activity at the edges of the descending slab. In particular, no trace is found of dip-slip faulting along near vertical planes parallel to the slab edges, that is no seismic evidence is available of vertical motion between the subducting segment of the plate and the adjacent portion of it. Also, the seismicity distribution and mechanisms found at crustal depths in the study region do not match properly with the expected scenario of relative motion at the lateral borders of the overriding plate. Our earthquake locations and mechanisms together with GPS information taken from the literature highlight a residual, laterally very short subducting slab showing quasi-nil velocity of trench retreat and no present-day STEP activity, still capable however of causing strong normal-faulting earthquakes in the trench area through its gravity-induced shallow deformation in a weak-coupling scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We find that geodetic strain rate (SR) integrated with the knowledge of active faults points out that hazardous seismic areas are those with lower SR, where active faults are possibly approaching the end of seismic cycle. SR values estimated from GPS velocities at epicentral areas of large historical earthquakes in Italy decrease with increasing elapsed time, thus highlighting faults more prone to reactivation. We have modelled an exponential decrease relationship between SR and the time elapsed since the last largest earthquake, differencing historical earthquakes according to their fault rupture style. Then, we have estimated the characteristic times of relaxation by a non-linear inversion, showing that events with thrust mechanism exhibit a characteristic time (∼ 990 yr) about three times larger than those with normal mechanism. Assuming standard rigidity and viscosity values we can infer an average recurrence time of about 600 yr for normal faults and about 2000 yr for thrust faults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 2012 May 20 and 29, two damaging earthquakes with magnitudes Mw 6.1 and 5.9, respectively, struck the Emilia-Romagna region in the sedimentary Po Plain, Northern Italy, causing 26 fatalities, significant damage to historical buildings and substantial impact to the economy of the region. The earthquake sequence included four more aftershocks with Mw ≥ 5.0, all at shallow depths (about 7–9 km), with similar WNW–ESE striking reverse mechanism. The timeline of the sequence suggests significant static stress interaction between the largest events. We perform here a detailed source inversion, first adopting a point source approximation and considering pure double couple and full moment tensor source models. We compare different extended source inversion approaches for the two largest events, and find that the rupture occurred in both cases along a subhorizontal plane, dipping towards SSW. Directivity is well detected for the May 20 main shock, indicating that the rupture propagated unilaterally towards SE. Based on the focal mechanism solution, we further estimate the co-seismic static stress change induced by the May 20 event. By using the rate-and-state model and a Poissonian earthquake occurrence, we infer that the second largest event of May 29 was induced with a probability in the range 0.2–0.4. This suggests that the segment of fault was already prone to rupture. Finally, we estimate peak ground accelerations for the two main events as occurred separately or simultaneously. For the scenario involving hypothetical rupture areas of both main events, we estimate Mw = 6.3 and an increase of ground acceleration by 50 per cent. The approach we propose may help to quantify rapidly which regions are invested by a significant increase of the hazard, bearing the potential for large aftershocks or even a second main shock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For decades, many authors have attempted to define the location, geometry and kinematics of the causative fault for the 1908 December 28, M 7.1 earthquake that struck the Messina Straits between Sicily and Calabria (southern Italy). The coseismic displacement caused a predominant downwarping of the Straits and small land uplift away from it, which were documented by levelling surveys performed 1 yr before and immediately after the earthquake. Most of the source models based on inversion of levelling data suggested that the earthquake was caused by a low angle, east-dipping blind normal fault, whose upper projection intersects the Earth surface on the Sicilian (west) side of the Messina Straits. An alternative interpretation holds that the causative fault is one of the high-angle, west-dipping faults located in southern Calabria, on the eastern side of the Straits, and may in large part coincide with the mapped Armo Fault. Here, we critically review the levelling data with the aim of defining both their usefulness and limits in modelling the seismogenic fault. We demonstrate that the levelling data alone are not capable of discriminating between the two oppositely dipping fault models, and thus their role as a keystone for modellers is untenable. However, new morphotectonic and geodetic data indicate that the Armo Fault has very recent activity and is accumulating strain. The surface observations, together with appraisal of macroseismic intensity distribution, available seismic tomography and marine geophysical evidence, lends credit to the hypothesis that the Armo and possibly the S. Eufemia faults are part of a major crustal structure that slipped during the 1908 earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The inversion of geodetic data to obtain earthquake parameters is often performed by assuming that the medium is isotropic, elastic and either homogeneous or layered. The layered medium often offers the best estimate of the structure of the crust; however, predicted displacements and observed data may differ beyond the measurement errors. The slip distribution on the fault plane is usually obtained by dividing the best uniform slipping fault into an arbitrarily large number of subfaults and minimizing a cost function that includes a smoothness (Laplacian) term and a data misfit term. The smoothing factor controls the trade-off between the smoothness and the goodness-of-fit.The main focus of this work is the determination and effect of the smoothing parameter.We conducted several inversion tests of noiseless synthetic surface displacement due to faults embedded in media with properties consistent with the geology of the Central Apennines (Italy), where the 2009 April 6, L'Aquila earthquake occurred. We used the following three-step procedure: (i) global optimization with no smoothness constraint for a fault divided into a small number of equally sized equal-rake subfaults; (ii) selection of the best fault parameters using information criteria and (iii) evaluation of the slip amplitude distribution on an expanded fault after choosing the smoothing factor from trade-off curves or from cross-validation for different numbers of subfaults.We show that all of the fault features obtained by the inversion procedure, including the slip distribution, agree with those (‘true’) used in the forward modelling when the data cover the majority of the displacement field. Notable departures from the true slip distribution occur when a suboptimal smoothing factor (obtained from the trade-off curves or cross-validation) is used. If different crustal stratifications are used in the inversions, the best results are obtained for the stratification that is the closest to the true crustal structure. When we use more realistic GPS distributions, prominent spurious slip patches can be obtained. Modellers should use synthetic tests and sensitivity analyses as an initial step in the data inversion for source parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY Early in the morning of 1887 February 23, a damaging earthquake hit the towns along the Italian and French Riviera. The earthquake was followed by a tsunami with a maximum run-up of 2 m near Imperia, Italy. At least 600 people died, mainly due to collapsing buildings. This 'Ligurian earthquake' occurred at the junction between the southern French-Italian Alps and the Ligurian Basin. For such a historical event, the epicentre and the equivalent magnitude are difficult to characterize with any degree of precision, and the tectonic fault responsible for the earthquake is still under debate today. The recent MALISAR marine geophysical survey allowed the identification of a large system of active faults. We propose that the rupture of some of the segments belonging to this 80-km-long northern Ligurian Faults system connected to a shallow-dipping major thrust plane at depth was the source of the 1887 Ligurian earthquake. We investigated the macroseismic data from the SISFRANCE-08 and DBMI-04 historical databases using several models of intensity attenuation with distance and focal depth. The modelling results are consistent with the off-shore location, with an epicentre around 43.70°-43.78°N and 7.81°-8.07°E, and with a magnitude Mw in the range of 6.3-7.5. Numerous earthquake source scenarios have been tested on the tide gauge record at Genoa harbour. As a result, we present seven characteristic source earthquake scenarios for a shallow strong earthquake occurring below the northern Ligurian margin. The modelled tide gauge records were analysed with the help of basic statistical tools and a simple harmonic analysis, to extract the wave spectrum characteristics. This analysis indicates that scenarios of a magnitude Mw of 6.8-6.9 along a reverse N55°E striking fault are the best candidates to explain the known characteristics of the tsunami that followed. The best-fitting scenarios comprise a 70°-dipping southward fault plane with Mw 6.8 and a 16°-dipping northward fault plane with Mw 6.9, both with reverse kinematics. Taking into account the geometry of the active faults, the location of the macroseismic epicentre and the morphotectonic evolution of the continental slope, we propose that the 1887 Ligurian earthquake corresponded to the reverse faulting of a N55°E striking fault plane dipping to the north with a coseismic slip of 1.5 m. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY In this paper, we propose a new model of the crustal structure and seismotectonics for central Sicily (southern Italy) through the analysis of the depth distribution and kinematics of the instrumental seismicity, occurring during the period from 1983 to 2010, and its comparison with individual geological structures that may be active in the area. The analysed data set consists of 392 earthquakes with local magnitudes ranging from 1.0 to 4.7. We defined a new, detailed 1-D velocity model to relocate the earthquakes that occurred in central Sicily, and we calculated a Moho depth of 37 km and a mean VP/ VS ratio of 1.73. The relocated seismic events are clustered mainly in the area north of Caltanissetta (e.g. Mainland Sicily) and in the northeastern sector (Madonie Mountains) of the study area; only minor and greatly dispersed seismicity is located in the western sector, near Belice, and along the southern coast, between Gela and Sciacca. The relocated hypocentral distribution depicts a bimodal pattern: 50 per cent of the events occur within the upper crust at depths less than ∼16 km, 40 per cent of the events occur within the middle and depth crust, at depths between 16 and 32 km, and the remaining 10 per cent occur at subcrustal depths. The energy release pattern shows a similar depth distribution. On the basis of the kinematic analysis of 38 newly computed focal plane solutions, two major geographically distinct seismotectonic domains are distinguished: the Madonie Mountain domain, with prevalent extensional and extensional-oblique kinematics associated with upper crust Late Pliocene-Quaternary faulting, and the Mainland Sicily domain, with prevalent compressional and compressional-oblique kinematics associated with thrust faulting, at mid to deep crust depth, along the north-dipping Sicilian Basal Thrust (SBT). The stress inversion of the Mainland Sicily focal solutions integrated with neighbouring mechanisms available in the literature highlights a regional homogeneous compressional tensor, with a subhorizontal NNW-SSE-striking σ1 axis. In addition, on the basis of geodetic data, the Mainland Sicily domain may be attributed to the SSE-ward thrusting of the Mainland Sicily block along the SBT plane. Seismogenic shearing along the SBT at mid-crustal depths was responsible for the unexpected Belice 1968 earthquake ( Mw 6.1), with evident implications in terms of hazard assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY In this paper, we present a significant update of the Italian present-day stress data compilation not only to improve the knowledge on the tectonic setting of the region or to constrain future geodynamic models, but also to understand the mechanics of processes linked to faulting and earthquakes. In this paper, we have analysed, revised and collected new contemporary stress data from borehole breakouts and we have assembled earthquake and fault data. In total, 206 new quality-ranked entries complete the definition of the horizontal stress orientation and tectonic regime in some areas, and bring new information mainly in Sicily and along the Apenninic belt. Now the global Italian data set consists of 715 data points, including 499 of A-C quality, representing an increase of 37 per cent compared to the previous compilation. The alignment of horizontal stresses measured in some regions, closely matches the ∼N-S first-order stress field orientation of ongoing relative crustal motions between Eurasia and Africa plates. The Apenninic belt shows a diffuse extensional stress regime indicating a ∼NE-SW direction of extension, that we interpret as related to a second-order stress field. The horizontal stress rotations observed in peculiar areas reflect a complex interaction between first-order stress field and local effects revealing the importance of the tectonic structure orientations. In particular, in Sicily the new data delineate a more complete tectonic picture evidencing adjacent areas characterized by distinct stress regime: northern offshore of Sicily and in the Hyblean plateau the alignment of horizontal stresses is consistent with the crustal motions, whereas different directions have been observed along the belt and foredeep. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY On 2009 April 6 a Mw = 6.3 earthquake struck the Abruzzi region (Central Italy) and caused severe destruction in L'Aquila and the surrounding area. In this work we present a Finite Element analysis of the event based on a realistic complex 3-D model, accounting for topographic relief and rheological heterogeneities deduced from local tomography. Finite Element computed Green's functions were implemented in a linear inversion of GPS coseismic displacements, to retrieve the slip distribution on the rupture plane. The inverted slip models basically agree with previous studies carried out on homogeneous domains, but reveal the presence of a single high slip patch, whereas half-space or 1-D approaches obtain a more complex slip pattern. Our results point out that the introduction of 3-D features significantly influences the obtained source model, suggesting a trade-off between domain complexities and source details. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY We analyse the spatial distribution of the intensity data points surveyed after the Mw 6.3, 2009 L'Aquila (central Italy) earthquake, with the aim to recognize and quantify finite-fault and directivity effects. The study is based on the analysis of the residuals, evaluated with respect to attenuation-with-distance models, calibrated for L'Aquila earthquake. We apply a non-parametric approach considering both the epicentral and the rupture distance, which accounts for the finite extension of the source. Then, starting from a simplified kinematic rupture model of the L'Aquila fault, we compute four directivity predictors proposed in literature, and assess their correlation with intensity residuals. We derive a so-called Intensity Directivity Factor by the correlation between theoretical predictors and observed residuals that allows us to identify and quantify the intensity data points affected by forward and backward directivity during L'Aquila earthquake. We find that the effects are more pronounced in the forward directivity direction and increments up to 1 MCS intensity unit are expected. Moreover, the directivity predictor that accounts for radiation pattern poorly correlates with residuals. These results show that the spatial distribution of the L'Aquila macroseismic field is affected by source effects and in particular that directivity-induced amplification effects can be recognized. We show that the quasi-unilateral rupture propagation along the fault can explain the high-intensity patterns observed along specific direction at relatively large distance from the instrumental epicentre, in accordance with the seismological source models derived from the analysis of instrumental observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based only on weak-motion data, we carried out a combined study on region-specific source scaling and crustal attenuation in the Central Apennines (Italy). Our goal was to obtain a reappraisal of the existing predictive relationships for the ground motion, and to test them against the strong-motion data [peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and spectral acceleration (SA)] gathered during the M 6.15 L'Aquila earthquake (2009 April 6, 01:32 UTC). The L'Aquila main shock was not part of the predictive study, and the validation test was an extrapolation to one magnitude unit above the largest earthquake of the calibration data set. The regional attenuation was determined through a set of regressions on a data set of 12 777 high-quality, high-gain waveforms with excellent S/N ratios (4259 vertical and 8518 horizontal time histories). Seismograms were selected from the recordings of 170 foreshocks and aftershocks of the sequence (the complete set of all earthquakes with M≥ 3.0, from 2008 October 1 to 2010 May 10). All waveforms were downloaded from the ISIDe web page (), a web site maintained by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). Weak-motion data were used to obtain a moment tensor solution, as well as a coda-based moment-rate source spectrum, for each one of the 170 events of the L'Aquila sequence (2.8 ≤ M≤ 6.15). Source spectra were used to verify the good agreement with the source scaling of the Colfiorito seismic sequence of 1997-1998 recently described by . Finally, results on source excitation and crustal attenuation were used to produce the absolute site terms for the 23 stations located within ∼80 km of the epicentral area. The complete set of spectral corrections (crustal attenuation and absolute site effects) was used to implement a fast and accurate tool for the automatic computation of moment magnitudes in the Central Apennines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has long been observed that damage due to earthquakes depends greatly on local geological conditions. Alpine valleys represent a typical populated environment where large amplifications can take place owing to the presence of surface soils with poor mechanical properties combined to complex topography of the rock basin. In the framework of the EU Interreg IIIB SISMOVALP Project ‘Seismic hazard and alpine valley response analysis’, a stretch of the Tagliamento River Valley (TRV), located in the north-western part of the Friuli Region (Italy) and close to the epicentre of the 1976 Mw= 6.4 earthquake, has been investigated with the aim to define the buried shape of the valley itself. Two non-invasive, low cost, independent geophysical methods were used: (i) detailed gravity survey and (ii) H/V spectral ratio (HVSR) of microtremors. Because of structural geological complexity and active tectonics of the Friuli region, an irregular valley shape was expected in this area. The independent analysis performed by gravity and passive noise, and complemented with refraction seismic velocity profiles, confirms this hypothesis and leads to two models that were consistent, but for some small scale details. The maximum depth estimated is about 400–450 m in the southern part of the valley, while a mean value of 150–180 m is estimated in the northern part. The sediment thickness obtained for this stretch of the TRV is quite large if compared to eastern Alps Plio-Quaternary rates; therefore the valley shape imaged by this study better corresponds to the top of carbonate rocks. Finally, on the basis of the obtained morphology and some direct measurements, we conclude that the TRV features an overall 1-D seismic response (i.e. the resonance is related only to the sediment thickness rather than to the cross-section shape), but in its deepest part some limited 2-D effects could take place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prominent arrivals in the coda of seismograms from the wider Alpine area can be associated with lateral reflections of Love waves at the northern Apennines mountain chain (Italy), where structural heterogeneity causes an abrupt contrast in phase velocity. We discuss an approach to image lateral heterogeneity from reflected surface waves using intermediate-period, three-component coda waveforms as sources for an adjoint wavefield that propagates the reflections backward in time. We numerically compute three-dimensional sensitivity kernels for the dependence of coda waveforms on P velocity, S velocity and density, based upon correlations between the adjoint and the regular forward wavefields. We consider synthetic coda waveforms for a simplified model of the northern Apennines, as well as real coda observations from five moderate magnitude earthquakes ( MW 4.6–5.6) in the southern Alps. Wave propagation is simulated using the spectral-element method, for which a 3-D regional earth model is used in the case of real data. Single and combined event sensitivity kernels provide clear images of the reflectivity associated with the northern Apennines in kernels for density and S-wave speed. The kernels show that surface wave reflections occur near the axial zone of the mountain chain. Apart from the Apennines, the approach is able to image other smaller reflectivity patches from the coda waveforms, like the Ivrea zone in the southern Alps. Our coda misfit kernels can be integrated in a gradient-based waveform tomography, where they could enhance the sharpness of the model at lateral discontinuities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An evaluation of the actual reliability of probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) assessments, provided by existing numerical techniques, is mandatory to orientate new researches and improvements. Two procedures devoted to this task are proposed, which are based on the comparison of the hazard estimates with empirical observations (e.g. strong-motion data). These procedures have been applied to the estimates provided by the methodology adopted for most recent seismic hazard evaluations in Italy. The analysis shows that a significant mismatch exists between peak ground acceleration values characterized by an exceedence probability of 10 per cent in 30 yr and what has actually been observed at 68 accelerometric stations located on stiff soil, where continuous seismicity monitoring has been performed in the last 30 yr. Although this finding should be considered with caution, it suggests that a future re-examination of the adopted PSH computational model could be useful to avoid possible underestimates of seismic hazard in Italy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic wave attenuation in southeastern Sicily was investigated by using a data set of about 180 local earthquakes recorded in the period 1994–2003. We first estimated the quality factor of S waves and clarified its frequency dependence by means of the coda-normalization method, applied in the frequency range 1.5–15 Hz. The average as function of frequency is given by . A detailed separation of scattering attenuation from intrinsic absorption was also attempted by applying the multiple lapse time window analysis (MLTWA), under the hypothesis of multiple isotropic scattering with uniform distribution of scatterers. Intrinsic absorption dominates over scattering in the attenuation process at high frequencies (above 3 Hz). Below 3 Hz scattering is the predominant attenuation effect in the region, at the scale length of these frequencies. However, some discrepancies have been observed between the theoretical model and the observations. This indicates that models with depth-dependent velocity structure and/or non isotropic scattering should be taken into account in order to remove ambiguities in the interpretation of the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mt Etna lies on the footwall of a large normal fault system, which cuts the eastern coast of Sicily and crosses the volcano eastern flank. These faults are responsible for both large magnitude historical earthquakes and smaller damaging seismic events, closer to the volcano. We investigate here the two-way mechanical coupling between such normal faults and Mt Etna through elastic stress transfer. The comparison between eruptive sequences and historical seismicity reveals that the large earthquakes which struck the eastern Sicily occurred after long periods of activity along the Mt Etna rift zone. The larger the erupted lava volumes, the stronger the earthquake. The smaller earthquakes located on the eastern flank of the volcano occur during periods of rift zone eruptions. We point out that the seismicity rates are well correlated with the rate of erupted lava. By modelling elastic stress changes caused by earthquakes and eruptions in a 3-D elastic half-space, we investigate their interaction. Earthquake dislocations create a vertical stress gradient along fissures oriented perpendicular to the minimum compressive stress and compress shallow reservoirs beneath the volcano. This may perturb the magmatic overpressures in the Etna plumbing system and influence the transport and storage of the magma as well as the style of the eruptions. Conversely, the large rift zone eruptions increase up to several tenths MPa the Coulomb stress along the eastern Sicily normal fault system and may promote earthquakes. We show that the seismic activity of the normal faults that cut the eastern flank of the volcano is likely to be controlled by Coulomb stress perturbations caused by the voiding of shallow reservoirs during flank eruptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a new geodetic velocity solution for Italy and the surrounding areas, obtained from an analysis of continuous and survey-mode Global Positioning System observations collected between 1991 and 2002. We have combined local, regional and global networks into a common reference frame velocity solution, providing a new detailed picture of the regional-scale deformation field in the central Mediterranean. Our velocity estimates are computed with respect to a new stable Eurasian reference frame, constraining the kinematics of the greater African–Eurasian plate boundary system in the study area. We provide strain-rate values for the main seismotectonic districts, which are in good agreement with the seismic deformation inferred from earthquake focal mechanisms. The southern Tyrrhenian area, Calabria, the Apennines, the southeastern Alps, the southern Dinarides and the Albanides display deformation rates at the order of 20–30 nanostrain yr−1. The Corsica–Sardinia block moves according to Eurasian Plate motions, and there is no indication that the opening of the Tyrrhenian is still active. The Pelagian and Sicilian domains are separated by a northwest–southeast discontinuity, the Sicily Channel rifted area, and marginally significant relative motion between the Pelagian Plateau and the African Plate is also observed. The southern Tyrrhenian is affected by north–south compression and accommodates up to 50 per cent of the Africa–Eurasia relative plate motion, whereas the Calabrian Arc exhibits∼2 mm yr−1 northwest–southeast extension. The observed deformation pattern suggests the presence of a major approximately north–south tectonic discontinuity separating the Sicilian and Calabrian domains. An extensional boundary observed along peninsular Italy coincides with the distribution of seismogenic faults along the axis of the Apennines. This boundary separates a Tyrrhenian and an Adriatic domain with diverging velocities, orientated north–NNW-ward and northeastward, respectively. The Apennines are extending perpendicularly to the chain axis at rates of less than 3 mm yr−1, and only in the outer northern Apennines indications of active shortening are observed. Insignificant deformation is observed in the western Po Plain and the western Alps, while the central and eastern Alps display north–south shortening. The eastern Adriatic domain is shortening perpendicular to the Dinaric front with strain rates increasing from north to south. The locus of collision between the Aegean/Balkan system and the Adriatic and Ionian domains is marked by the Kephalonia fault system, which accommodates up to 20±1 mm yr−1 of right-lateral motion. The deformation pattern observed in the peri-Adriatic domain is well described by a counter-clockwise rotation of the Adriatic microplate around a pole located in the western Alps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analysed elevation changes induced by the 1997–1998 Umbria-Marche, central Apennines (Italy) earthquakes. We employed data from a first-order geodetic levelling line measured in 1951, 1992 and 1998. The line bears a record of pre-seismic and coseismic strains associated with the causative fault of the 1997 September 26, 09:40 mainshock . A first level analysis performed under the assumption of slip homogeneity of coseismic slip shows misfits that cannot be reduced simply by altering the fault size and geometry. A more detailed analysis based on a distribution of coseismic slip obtained from broad-band seismograms provides a better fit and is in agreement with 1951–1992 elevation changes interpreted as precursory slip by previous investigators. The levelling data sets new constraints on the location, extent, dip and depth of the fault, in full agreement with seismological evidence and images from SAR interferometry. The data show no evidence for slip in the uppermost 3 km of the crust, suggesting that a major and widely recognized normal fault that exists in the area is no longer active and showing a tendency of present tectonic strains to revert the current topographic setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]