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Background Diabetes mellitus (DM) is associated with a greater risk of mortality in kidney transplant patients, primarily driven by a greater risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality. However, the associations between diabetes status at time of first allograft loss and mortality on dialysis remain unknown. Methods All patients with failed first kidney allografts transplanted in Australia and New Zealand between 2000 and 2020 were included. The associations between diabetes status at first allograft loss, all-cause and cause-specific mortality were examined using competing risk analyses, separating patients with diabetes into those with pre-transplant DM or post-transplant diabetes mellitus (PTDM). Results Of 3782 patients with a median (IQR) follow-up duration of 2.7 (1.1–5.4) years, 539 (14%) and 390 (10%) patients had pre-transplant DM or developed PTDM, respectively. In the follow-up period, 1336 (35%) patients died, with 424 (32%), 264 (20%) and 199 (15%) deaths attributed to CVD, dialysis withdrawal and infection, respectively. Compared to patients without DM, the adjusted subdistribution HRs (95% CI) for pre-transplant DM and PTDM for all-cause mortality on dialysis were 1.47 (1.17–1.84) and 1.47 (1.23–1.76), respectively; for CVD-related mortality were 0.81 (0.51–1.29) and 1.02 (0.70–1.47), respectively; for infection-related mortality were 1.84 (1.02–3.35) and 2.70 (1.73–4.20), respectively; and for dialysis withdrawal-related mortality were 1.71 (1.05–2.77) and 1.51 (1.02–2.22), respectively. Conclusions Patients with diabetes at the time of kidney allograft loss have a significant survival disadvantage, with the excess mortality risk attributed to infection and dialysis withdrawal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Pituitary adenomas and their consequences impact mortality and morbidity. We studied the healthcare costs, survival, and cost-effectiveness of growth hormone (GH) vs no GH replacement in patients with non-functioning pituitary adenoma (NFPA). Design and methods: A cohort study including all NFPA patients followed from 1987 or the date of diagnosis until the time of death or December 31, 2019, in the Västra Gotaland region, Sweden. Data to assess resource use, costs, survival, and cost-effectiveness were collected from patient records and regional/national healthcare registries. Results: A total of 426 patients with NFPA (274 men) with a follow-up of 13.6 ± 6.8 years (mean ± SD) were included. The total annual healthcare cost was higher in patients receiving GH (€9287) than those without GH (€6770), mainly driven by a higher pharmaceutical cost. Glucocorticoid replacement therapy (P = .02), diabetes insipidus (P = .04), body mass index (BMI) (P < .01), and hypertension (P < .01) were all individually associated with a higher total annual cost. The survival rate was higher in the GH group (HR [hazard ratio] 0.60; P = .01) and reduced in patients with glucocorticoid replacement (HR 2.02; P< .01) or diabetes insipidus (HR 1.67; P = .04). The cost per gained life-year for GH vs no GH replacement was about €37 000. Conclusions: This healthcare utilization study identified several factors driving the cost of care in NFPA patients, such as GH replacement, adrenal insufficiency, and diabetes insipidus. Life expectancy was increased in those with GH replacement and reduced in patients with B adrenal insufficiency and diabetes insipidus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last decade, studies in persons with HIV (PWH) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) have shed light on the significance of persistently high CD8 counts and low CD4/CD8 ratios. A low CD4/CD8 ratio reflects increased immune activation and is associated with an increased risk of severe non-AIDS events. As a result, many clinicians now believe that the CD4/CD8 ratio can help in HIV monitoring, and many researchers now report it as an efficacy marker in interventional studies. However, the topic is more complex. Recent studies have not yielded unanimous conclusions on the ability of the CD4/CD8 ratio to predict adverse outcomes, and only some clinical guidelines recommend monitoring it. Knowledge gaps remain on the best cutoff points, associated clinical events, effects of treatments, and how the CD4/CD8 ratio could improve decision making in the clinic. Here, we critically review the literature, identify knowledge gaps, and discuss the role of the CD4/CD8 ratio as a marker for HIV monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims Previously, guidelines recommended initiating therapy in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) in a sequence that follows the chronological order in which trials were conducted, with cautious up-titration of each treatment. It remains unclear whether this historical approach is optimal and alternative approaches may improve patient outcomes. Methods and results The potential reductions in events that might result from (i) more rapid up-titration of therapies used in the conventional order (based on the chronology of the trials), and (ii) accelerated up-titration and using treatments in different orders than is conventional were modelled using data from six pivotal trials in HFrEF. Over the first 12 months from starting therapy, using a rapid up-titration schedule led to 23 fewer patients per 1000 patients experiencing the composite of heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular death and seven fewer deaths from any cause. In addition to accelerating up-titration of treatments, optimized alternative ordering of the drugs used resulted in a further reduction of 24 patients experiencing the composite outcome and six fewer deaths at 12 months. The optimal alternative sequences included sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 inhibition and a mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist as the first two therapies. Conclusion Modelling of accelerated up-titration schedule and optimized ordering of treatment suggested that at least 14 deaths and 47 patients experiencing the composite outcome per 1000 treated might be prevented over the first 12 months after starting therapy. Standard treatment guidance may not lead to the best patient outcomes in HFrEF, though these findings should be tested in clinical trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims Left atrial (LA) function is a marker of prognosis in patients with heart failure. The prognostic implications of an improvement in LA function in addition to an improvement in left ventricular (LV) function after cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) implantation are unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of a significant change in LA reservoir strain (RS) and/or LV global longitudinal strain (GLS) after initiation of CRT. Methods and results LARS and LVGLS were measured with speckle-tracking echocardiography. Significant improvement in LARS and LVGLS was defined as a percentage change of +5% and +20% at 6 months after CRT implantation, respectively. Patients were divided into three groups: no significant reverse remodelling (no improvement in LARS and LVGLS), incomplete reverse remodelling (improvement in LARS or LVGLS), and complete reverse remodelling (improvement in LARS and LVGLS). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. A total of 923 patients (mean age 65 ± 10 years, 77% male) were included, of which 221 (24%) had complete reverse remodelling, 414 (45%) incomplete reverse remodelling, and 288 (31%) no significant reverse remodelling. Five-years' mortality was 24%, 29%, and 36% for patients with complete, incomplete, and no significant reverse remodelling, respectively (P < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, complete reverse remodelling (hazard ratio 0.477; 95% confidence interval: 0.362–0.628; P < 0.001) was associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Conclusions Patients with complete reverse remodelling have a lower mortality risk than those showing incomplete or no significant reverse remodelling. The use of integrated LA and LV deformation imaging may improve risk-stratification of CRT recipients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Dialysis confers the highest risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) death among comorbidities predisposing to severe COVID-19. However, reports of COVID-19-associated mortality frequently refer to mortality during the initial hospitalization or first month after diagnosis. Methods In a prospective, observational study, we analysed the long-term (1-year follow-up) serological and clinical outcomes of 56 haemodialysis (HD) patients who were infected by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during the first pandemic wave. COVID-19 was diagnosed by a positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test (n  = 37) or by the development of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (n  = 19). Results After >1 year of follow-up, 35.7% of HD patients infected by SARS-CoV-2 during the first pandemic wave had died, 6 (11%) during the initial admission and 14 (25%) in the following months, mainly within the first 3 months after diagnosis. Overall, 30% of patients died from vascular causes and 40% from respiratory causes. In adjusted analysis, a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test for diagnosis {hazard ratio [HR] 5.18 [interquartile range (IQR) 1.30–20.65], P = 0.020}, higher baseline C-reactive protein levels [HR 1.10 (IQR 1.03–1.16), P = 0.002] and lower haemoglobin levels [HR 0.62 (IQR 0.45–0.86), P = 0.005] were associated with higher 1-year mortality. Mortality in the 144 patients who did not have COVID-19 was 21 (14.6%) over 12 months [HR of death for COVID-19 patients 3.00 (IQR 1.62–5.53), log-rank P = 0.00023]. Over the first year, the percentage of patients having anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G (IgG) decreased from 36/49 (73.4%) initially to 27/44 (61.3%) at 6 months and 14/36 (38.8%) at 12 months. Conclusions The high mortality of HD patients with COVID-19 is not limited to the initial hospitalization. Defining COVID-19 deaths as those occurring within 3 months of a COVID-19 diagnosis may better represent the burden of COVID-19. In HD patients, the anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG response was suboptimal and short-lived. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The optimal level of salt intake remains ill-defined in non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients under regular nephrology care. This unanswered question becomes critical in older patients who are exposed to higher risk of worsening of cardiorenal disease due to volemic changes. Methods In this pooled analysis of four prospective studies in CKD, we compared the risk of all-cause mortality and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) between patients ≤65 and >65 years of age stratified by salt intake level (<6, 6–8 and >8 g/day) estimated from two measurements of 24-h urinary sodium. Results The cohort included 1785 patients. The estimated glomerular filtration rate was 37 ± 21 mL/min/1.73 m2 overall, 41 ± 25 in younger patients and 34 ± 16 in older patients (P < 0.001). The median 24-h urinary sodium excretion was 143 mEq [interquartile range (IQR) 109–182] in all, 147 (112–185) in younger patients and 140 (106–179) in older patients (P = 0.012). Salt intake was ≤6, 6–8 and >8 g sodium chloride/day in 21.9, 26.2 and 52.0% of older patients and 18.6, 25.2 and 56.2% in younger patients, respectively (P = 0.145). During a median follow-up of 4.07 years we registered 383 ESKD and 260 all-cause deaths. In the whole cohort, the risks of ESKD and all-cause death did not differ by salt intake level. In older patients, ESKD risk [multi-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI)] was significantly lower at salt intakes of 6–8 g/day [HR 0.577 (95% CI 0.361–0.924)] and >8 g/day [HR 0.564 (95% CI 0.382–0.833)] versus the reference group (<6 g/day). Mortality risk was higher in older versus younger patients, with no difference across salt intake categories. No effect of salt intake on ESKD and mortality was observed in younger patients. Conclusions CKD patients under nephrology care show a moderate salt intake (8.4 g/day) that is lower in older versus younger patients. In this context, older patients are not exposed to higher mortality across different levels of salt intake, while salt intake <6 g/day poses a greater risk of ESKD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Open in new tab Download slide Open in new tab Download slide OBJECTIVES The commonly used cardiac surgery risk scores, European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II and Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, are inaccurate in predicting mortality in the ageing patient population and do not include the biological age. This requests a need for a new risk score incorporating frailty. The aim of this study was to compare the prediction of mortality and the additive effect of comprehensive assessment of frailty score and the shortened version, frailty predicts death one year after elective cardiac surgery test on the existing risk scores. METHODS Six hundred four patients undergoing cardiac surgery and aged ≥65 years were included in this prospective observational study. These frailty scores are based on minor physical tests. We compared these frailty score predictions of mortality and their added value to the existing risk scores evaluated by concordance-statistics (C -statistics), integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement. RESULTS The median age was 73 years (21% female). C -statistics showed that comprehensive assessment of frailty score with a value of 0.69, frailty predicts death one year after elective cardiac surgery test 0.68, Society of Thoracic Surgeons score 0.70 and European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation 0.64. Frailty assessment, added to the existing risk scores, significantly improved integrated discrimination improvement up to 0.05, and net reclassification improvement up to 0.04. Frailty assessment also increased the C -statistics, but this did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS Frailty scores are as good as the existing risk scores for the prediction of mortality in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Added to the existing scores, frailty assessment improves the C -statistics and integrated discrimination improvement over time. Clinical trials registration number NCT02992587 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) are effective drugs to correct and maintain haemoglobin (Hb) levels, however, their use at doses to reach high Hb targets has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular adverse events, mortality and cancer. Presently used ESAs have a common mechanism of action but different pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics. Accordingly, the mode of activation of the erythropoietin (EPO) receptor can exert marked differences in downstream events. It is unknown whether the various ESA molecules have different efficacy/safety profiles. The relative mortality and morbidity risks associated with the use of different types of ESAs remains poorly evaluated. Recently an observational study and a randomized clinical trial provided conflicting results regarding this matter. However, these two studies displayed several differences in patient characteristics and ESA molecules used. More importantly, by definition, randomized clinical trials avoid bias by indication and suffer less from confounding factors. Therefore they bring a higher degree of evidence. The scenario becomes even more complex when considering the new class of ESAs, called prolyl-hydroxylase domain (PHD) inhibitors. They are oral drugs that mimic exposure to hypoxia and stabilize hypoxia-inducible factor α. They profoundly differ from presently used ESAs, as they have multiple targets of action, including the stimulation of endogenous EPO synthesis, direct mobilization/absorption of iron and a higher reduction of hepcidin. Accordingly, they have the potential to be more effective in inflamed patients with functional iron deficiency, i.e. the setting of patients who are at higher risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in response to present ESA use. As for ESAs, individual PHD inhibitors differ in molecular structure and degree of selectivity for the three main PHD isoforms; their efficacy and safety profiles may therefore be different from that of presently available ESAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims Glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) is a gut incretin hormone inducing post-prandial insulin secretion. Glucagon-like peptide 1 levels were recently found to be increased in patients with acute myocardial infarction. Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists improve cardiovascular outcomes in patients with diabetes. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive capacity of GLP-1 serum levels for cardiovascular outcome in patients with myocardial infarction. Methods and results In 918 patients presenting with myocardial infarction [321 ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and 597 non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI)] total GLP-1, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score were assessed at time of hospital admission. The primary composite outcome of the study was the first occurrence of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or non-fatal stroke. Kaplan–Meier survival plots and univariable Cox regression analyses found GLP-1 to be associated with adverse outcome [hazard ratio (HR) of logarithmized GLP-1 values: 6.29, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.67–14.81; P < 0.0001]. After further adjustment for age, sex, family history of cardiovascular disease, smoking, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterinaemia, glomerular filtration rate (GFR) CKD-EPI, hs-CRP, hs-Troponin T, and NT-proBNP levels the HR remained significant at 10.98 (95% CI: 2.63–45.90; P  = 0.0010). Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analyses illustrated that GLP-1 levels are a strong indicator for early events. For events up to 30 days after admission, GLP-1 proved to be superior to other biomarkers including hs-Troponin T, GFR CKD-EPI, hs-CRP, and NT-proBNP. Adjustment of the GRACE risk estimate by addition of GLP-1 increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve over time in NSTEMI patients. Conclusion In patients hospitalized for myocardial infarction, GLP-1 levels are associated with cardiovascular events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The prognostic relevance of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) has been scarcely studied in the dialysis population and the prognostic power for mortality of the HRQoL domains is unknown. Methods We tested the prognostic value for mortality of the HRQoL domains included in the 36-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) by Cox's regression analysis and by state-of-the-art prognostic techniques {explained variation in mortality [ R 2], calibration, discrimination [Harrell's C], risk reclassification [Net Reclassification Index (NRI)], Integrated Discrimination Index [IDI]} in a cohort of 951 patients on chronic haemodialysis. Results In multivariable Cox models, all but two domains (role limitation due to physical health and due to emotional problems) were independently related with mortality. Physical functioning was the domain adding the highest explanatory power (R 2+5.3%) to a basic model including established risk factors for mortality in the dialysis population. The same domain improved risk calibration and showed the highest Harrell's C (+1.7%) and the highest reclassification power (categorical NRI + 8.7%, continuous NRI +46%, P ≤ 0.006) and the highest IDI (+3.4%, P < 0.001). These results were fully confirmed in analyses testing the additional prognostic power of SF-36 domains when combined to a well-validated risk score in dialysis patients. Conclusions Physical functioning holds the highest prognostic power for mortality among the domains of SF-36. The gain in prognostic ability by this domain is relevant for clinical practice. Physical functioning has the potential for refining the prognosis and for informing exercise programmes in the dialysis population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A 'mortality risk score' (MS) based on ten prominent mortality-related cytosine-phosphate-guanine (CpG) sites was previously associated with all-cause mortality, but has not been verified externally. We aimed to validate the association of MS with mortality and to compare MS with three aging biomarkers: telomere length (TL), DNA methylation age (DNAmAge) and phenotypic age (DNAmPhenoAge) to explore whether MS can serve as a reliable measure of biological aging and mortality.Methods: Among 534 males aged 55-85 years from the US Normative Aging Study, the MS, DNAmAge and DNAmPhenoAge were derived from blood DNA methylation profiles from the Illumina HumanMethylation450 BeadChip, and TL was measured by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR).Results: A total of 147 participants died during a median follow-up of 9.4 years. The MS showed strong associations with all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer mortality. After controlling for all potential covariates, participants with high MS (>5 CpG sites with aberrant methylation) had almost 4-fold all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 3.84, 95% confidence interval: 1.92-7.67) compared with participants with a low MS (0-1 CpG site with aberrant methylation). Similar patterns were observed with respect to CVD and cancer mortality. MS was associated with TL and DNAmPhenoAge acceleration but not with DNAmAge acceleration. Although the MS and DNAmPhenoAge acceleration were independently associated with all-cause mortality, the former exhibited a higher predictive accuracy of mortality than the latter.Conclusions: MS has the potential to be a prominent predictor of mortality that could enhance survival prediction in clinical settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: There are limited data regarding factors that identify implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) patients who will experience either ventricular tachyarrhythmic (VTA) or non-arrhythmic (NA) mortality, and the commonly used clinical classification of sudden cardiac death (SCD) vs. non-sudden cardiac death (NSCD) may not be accurate enough. We aimed to correlate clinical adjudication of mortality events to device interrogation data and to identify risk factors for VTA mortality in Multicenter Automatic Defibrillator Implantation Trial II (MADIT-II).Methods and Results: Of the 746 patients who received an ICD in MADIT-II, 44 died from cardiac causes and had available interrogation data at the time of death. Sudden cardiac death vs. NSCD was defined by an adjudication committee. Ventricular tachyarrhythmic and NA arrhythmic deaths were categorized by the presence or absence of ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation (VT/VF) during the terminal event. Mode of death was found to be inaccurate when validated by device interrogation for VTA events: 50% patients adjudicated as SCD did not have a VTA event at the time of death; and 25% of adjudicated NSCD were found to have VT/VF during the mortality event. Multivariate analysis showed that factors independently associated with VTA mortality included: VT/VF >72 h prior to the mortality event [hazard ratio (HR) 8.0; P < 0.001], hospitalization for heart failure (HR 6.7; P = 0.001), and a history of hypertension (HR 4; P = 0.04).Conclusion: Current classification of SCD vs. NSCD fails to identify VTA events at the time of death in a significant proportion of patients, and simple clinical parameters can be used to identify ICD recipients with increased risk for VTA mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Early detection and risk factor control prevent chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression. Evaluation of peripheral autonomic dysfunction may detect incident cardiovascular–renal events in type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods SUDOSCAN, a non-invasive tool, provides an age-adjusted electrochemical skin conductance (ESC) composite score incorporating hands/feet ESC measurements, with a score ≤53 indicating sudomotor dysfunction. A consecutive cohort of 2833 Chinese adults underwent structured diabetes assessment in 2012–13; 2028 participants without preexisting cardiovascular disease (CVD) and CKD were monitored for incident cardiovascular–renal events until 2015. Results In this prospective cohort {mean age 57.0 [standard deviation (SD) 10.0] years; median T2D duration 7.0 [interquartile range (IQR) 3.0–13.0] years; 56.1% men; 72.5% never-smokers; baseline ESC composite score 60.7 (SD 14.5)}, 163 (8.0%) and 25 (1.2%) participants developed incident CKD and CVD, respectively, after 2.3 years of follow-up. The adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) per 1-unit decrease in the ESC composite score for incident CKD, CVD and all-cause death were 1.02 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01–1.04], 1.04 (1.00–1.07) and 1.04 (1.00–1.08), respectively. Compared with participants with an ESC composite score >53, those with a score ≤53 had an aHR of 1.56 (95% CI 1.09–2.23) for CKD and 3.11 (95% CI 1.27–7.62) for CVD, independent of common risk markers. When added to clinical variables (sex and duration of diabetes), the ESC composite score improved discrimination of all outcomes with appropriate reclassification of CKD risk. Conclusions A low ESC composite score independently predicts incident cardiovascular–renal events and death in T2D, which may improve the screening strategy for early intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In advanced cancer, patients want to know how their care options may affect survival and quality of life, but the impact of outpatient specialty palliative care on these outcomes in cancer is uncertain.Purpose: To estimate the impact of outpatient specialty palliative care programs on survival and quality of life in adults with advanced cancer.Methods: Following PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing outpatient specialty palliative care with usual care in adults with advanced cancer. Primary outcomes were 1 year survival and quality of life. Analyses were stratified to compare preliminary studies against higher-quality studies. Secondary outcomes were survival at other endpoints and physical and psychological quality-of-life measures.Results: From 2,307 records, we identified nine studies for review, including five high-quality studies. In the three high-quality studies with long-term survival data (n = 646), patients randomized to outpatient specialty palliative care had a 14% absolute increase in 1 year survival relative to controls (56% vs. 42%, p < .001). The survival advantage was also observed at 6, 9, 15, and 18 months, and median survival was 4.56 months longer (14.55 vs. 9.99 months). In the five high-quality studies with quality-of-life data (n = 1,398), outpatient specialty palliative care improved quality-of-life relative to controls (g = .18, p < .001), including for physical and psychological measures.Conclusions: Patients with advanced cancer randomized to receive outpatient specialty palliative care lived longer and had better quality of life. Findings have implications for improving care in advanced cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND Impaired renal function is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and mortality. The impact of short-term renal function decline on outcomes is less well studied. The association of antihypertensive medications with the impact of short-term estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline is not known. METHODS We examined 20,207 hypertensive participants with baseline and 2-year creatinine levels from which eGFR changes were estimated. The associations between eGFR change with incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF), all-cause mortality, and ESRD during 2.9 years of in-trial follow up, and with mortality during in-trial and post-trial follow-up (7.6 years), were studied. Results were assessed by primary hypertension (HTN) treatment (chlorthalidone, lisinopril, and amlodipine) and adjusted for baseline eGFR levels. RESULTS In the short run, an eGFR decline below the cohort median (−1.28 ml/minute/1.73 m2/2 years) vs. above the median, or a 5 ml/min/1.73 m2/year decline vs. no decline, was associated with significant hazard risk for CHD (1.06–1.28), HF (1.24–1.91), ESRD (2.84–6.01), and mortality (1.08–1.19), but not with stroke risk. In the long term, there was a significant association with mortality (1.11–1.34). Interaction terms for outcomes by antihypertensive treatments were not statistically significant except for ESRD between amlodipine vs. chlorthalidone (hazard ratio: 3.17 [2.59, 3.88] vs. 2.41 [1.98, 2.97]; P interaction = 0.005) for a 5 ml/min/1.73 m2/year eGFR decline. CONCLUSION Decline in eGFR over 2 years is associated with increased risk of clinical outcomes beyond the effects of baseline eGFR. These risks were the same irrespective of the primary medication used to treat HTN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) are widely used to treat anaemia in patients with chronic kidney disease. The issue of ESA safety has been raised in multiple studies, with correlates derived for elevated cancer incidence and mortality. Whether these associations are related to ESA dose or the typology of the patient remains obscure. Methods: A multicentre, observational retrospective propensity score-matched study was designed to analyse the effects of weekly ESA dose in 1679 incident haemodialysis (HD) patients. ESA administration was according to standard medical practice. Patients were grouped as quintiles, according to ESA dose, in order to compare mortality and hospitalization data. Using propensity score matching (PSM), we defined two groups of 324 patients receiving weekly threshold ESA doses of either > or ≤8000 IU. Results: Kaplan-Meier survival curves indicated significant increases in the risk of mortality in patients administered with high doses of ESAs (>8127.4 IU/week). Multivariate Cox models identified a high ESA dose as an independent predictor for all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality. Moreover, logistic regression models identified high ESA doses as an independent predictor for all-cause, CV and infectious hospitalization. PSM analyses confirmed that weekly ESA doses of >8000 IU constitute an independent predictor of all-cause mortality and hospitalization, even though the adjusted cohort displayed the same demographic features, inflammatory profile, clinical HD parameters and haemoglobin levels. Conclusions: Our data suggest that ESA doses of >8000 IU/week are associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality and hospitalization in HD patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Elevated levels of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hsTnT) indicate underlying heart disease and are known to predict adverse outcomes in various patient populations. Their role in atrial fibrillation (AF) is still under debate.Methods and results: This retrospective study included 2898 consecutive patients presenting with AF to the emergency department of the Department of Cardiology, Heidelberg University Hospital. Multivariable Cox regression was used to assess associations between hsTnT and mortality. Elevated hsTnT levels were associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in all patients with AF, as well as in each subtype of AF. After adjustment for multiple risk factors, both detectable hsTnT below the 99th percentile (5-14 ng/L, adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 4.86 [95% CI: 1.77-13.34], P = 0.002) and elevated hsTnT (>14 ng/L, adjusted HR: 13.42 [95% CI: 4.95-36.40], P < 0.001) were associated with a higher risk of mortality in patients with AF, compared to undetectable hsTnT (<5 ng/L). Elevated hsTnT was also associated with higher mortality after exclusion of patients with myocardial infarction, as well as in the subgroup of patients with AF as main admission diagnosis. The inclusion of hsTnT significantly improved the performance of the multivariable model for mortality prediction.Conclusion: Elevated hsTnT levels are associated with higher mortality in patients with AF, and provide added prognostic information independent of major cardiovascular risk factors and clinical characteristics. Measurement of hsTnT should be considered for risk assessment in patients presenting to an emergency department with AF.Clinical trial registration: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02542189. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite marked improvements in the modern treatment era, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals, particularly those who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) at advanced disease stages, continue to have increased age-related morbidity and mortality, compared with the general population. Immune activation and inflammation persist despite suppressive ART and predict many of these morbidities. The goal of this review is to examine the evidence suggesting a link between the persistent inflammatory state and morbidity and mortality in this setting, to describe the impact of early ART initiation on these factors, and to highlight important unanswered questions for the field. We also advance a hypothesis to explain why some morbidities-and their root inflammatory drivers-may be prevented more than others by early ART initiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at high risk of developing cardiovascular (CV) and renal disease.We examined the burden of, and risk of death following, CV and renal events in the Aliskiren Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Using Cardio-Renal Endpoints (ALTITUDE), a randomized trial of alikiren vs. placebo. Methods and results We followed 8561 patients with T2DM and evidence of chronic kidney disease, CV disease, or both in ALTITUDE until the first non-fatal CV or renal event of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, heart failure (HF), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD; initiation of dialysis, renal transplantation, or a serum creatinine concentration above 6.0 mg/dL) and then to death or censoring. Time-updated multivariable Cox models were used to estimate the relative risk of death following each event. In total 1008 patients (12%) experienced at least one first non-fatal CV or renal event (4.1% HF, 2.8% MI, 2.8% stroke, and 2.2% ESRD). Death occurred subsequently in 26.4% of those experiencing a first HF event, 29.7% of those experiencing an MI event, 23.7% of those experiencing a stroke, and 14.7% of those experiencing ESRD, and in 6.5% (488) of the 7553 patients (88%) who did not experience a non-fatal CV or renal event. Compared with patients who did not experience a non-fatal event, the adjusted hazard ratiofor death was 5.9 (95% confidence interval 4.6-7.6) after HF, 9.7 (7.5-12.6) after MI, 7.1 (5.3-9.5) after stroke, and 5.8 (3.7-9.0) after ESRD. Conclusion The majority of deaths occurred in patients who did not experience a non-fatal CV or renal event, although the risk of death was higher following an event. Our findings illustrate continuing opportunities to reduce morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims The angiotensin-receptor-neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI) LCZ696 reduced cardiovascular deaths and all-cause mortality compared with enalapril in patients with chronic heart failure in the prospective comparison of ARNI with an Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure (PARADIGM-HF) trial. To more completely understand the components of this mortality benefit, we examined the effect of LCZ696 on mode of death. Methods and results PARADIGM-HF was a prospective, double-blind, randomized trial in 8399 patients with chronic heart failure, New York Heart Association Class II-IV symptoms, and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40% receiving guidelinerecommended medical therapy and followed for a median of 27 months. Mode of death was adjudicated by a blinded clinical endpoints committee. The majority of deaths were cardiovascular (80.9%), and the risk of cardiovascular death was significantly reduced by treatment with LCZ (hazard ratio, HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.72-0.89, P < 0.001). Among cardiovascular deaths, both sudden cardiac death (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.68-0.94, P = 0.008) and death due to worsening heart failure (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.64-0.98, P = 0.034) were reduced by treatment with LCZ696 compared with enalapril. Deaths attributed to other cardiovascular causes, including myocardial infarction and stroke, were infrequent and distributed evenly between treatment groups, as were non-cardiovascular deaths. Conclusions LCZ696 was superior to enalapril in reducing both sudden cardiac deaths and deaths from worsening heart failure, which accounted for the majority of cardiovascular deaths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. The Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) is a validated predictive tool for long-term mortality based on information collected in a standardized Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment. We investigated whether the MPI is an effective predictor of intrahospital mortality and length of hospital stay after admission to acute geriatric wards. Methods. Prospective study of 1,178 older patients (702 women and 476 men, 85.0±6.8 years) admitted to 20 geriatrics units. Within 48 hours from admission, the MPI, according to an earlier validated algorithm, was calculated. Subjects were divided into three groups of MPI score, low-risk (MPI-1 value ≤ 0.33), moderate-risk (MPI-2 value 0.34–0.66), and severe-risk of mortality (MPI-3 value ≥ 0.67), on the basis of earlier established cut-offs. Associations with in-hospital mortality and length of stay were examined using multivariable Cox regression models and adjusted Poisson linear mixed-effects models, respectively. Results. At admission, 23.6% subjects had a MPI-1 score, 33.8% had a MPI-2 score, and 42.6% had a MPI-3 score. Subjects with higher MPI score at admission were older (p < .001), more frequently women (p < .001) and had higher prevalence of common chronic conditions. After adjustment for age, gender, and diseases, patients included in the MPI-2 and MPI-3 groups had a significantly higher risk for intrahospital mortality (hazard ratio: 3.48, 95% confidence intervals: 1.02–11.88, p = .047; hazard ratio: 8.31, 95% confidence intervals: 2.54–27.19, p < .001) than patients included in the MPI-1 group, respectively. In multivariable model, length of stay significantly increased across the three MPI groups (11.29 [0.5], 13.73 [1.3], and 15.30 [1.4] days, respectively [p < .0001]). Conclusions. In older acute care inpatients, MPI score assessed at hospital admission is an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality and the length of hospital stay. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background. While inflammation predicts mortality in treated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, the prognostic significance of gut barrier dysfunction and phenotypic T-cell markers remains unclear.Methods. We assessed immunologic predictors of mortality in a case-control study within the Longitudinal Study of the Ocular Complications of AIDS (LSOCA), using conditional logistic regression. Sixty-four case patients who died within 12 months of treatment-mediated viral suppression were each matched to 2 control individuals (total number of controls, 128) by duration of antiretroviral therapy–mediated viral suppression, nadir CD4+ T-cell count, age, sex, and prior cytomegalovirus (CMV) retinitis. A similar secondary analysis was conducted in the SCOPE cohort, which had participants with less advanced immunodeficiency.Results. Plasma gut epithelial barrier integrity markers (intestinal fatty acid binding protein and zonulin-1 levels), soluble CD14 level, kynurenine/tryptophan ratio, soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 level, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level, and D-dimer level all strongly predicted mortality, even after adjustment for proximal CD4+ T-cell count (all P ≤ .001). A higher percentage of CD38+HLA-DR+ cells in the CD8+ T-cell population was a predictor of mortality before (P = .031) but not after (P = .10) adjustment for proximal CD4+ T-cell count. Frequencies of senescent (defined as CD28−CD57+ cells), exhausted (defined as PD1+ cells), naive, and CMV-specific T cells did not predict mortality.Conclusions. Gut epithelial barrier dysfunction, innate immune activation, inflammation, and coagulation—but not T-cell activation, senescence, and exhaustion—independently predict mortality in individuals with treated HIV infection with a history of AIDS and are viable targets for interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) has been described in the general population as an independent risk marker for incident coronary artery disease. In hemodialysis patients, it correlates with other markers of cardiovascular disease, but it is unknown if it is associated with adverse events. Methods post hoc analysis of the Renagel in New Dialysis (RIND) patients study, a randomized trial of sevelamer versus calcium-based phosphate binders in 109 incident hemodialysis patients, followed for all-cause mortality for a median of 49.3 months. Patients underwent baseline cardiac computed tomography imaging within 120 days of dialysis initiation. Results Baseline EAT measurements were available in 95 patients; EAT was positively correlated with age, body mass index, triglycerides, C-reactive protein, coronary artery calcium and aortic calcium, and negatively correlated with systolic and diastolic blood pressure, serum high density lipoprotein (HPL) cholesterol and serum phosphate (all P < 0.05). During follow-up, a total of 27 (28.4%) patients expired [mortality per 1000 patients/year: 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 77 (64–94)]. Five-year survival rate was 44. 6% (95% CI: 21.1–65.7) and 71.2% (95% CI: 45.95–86.25) in patients with EAT above or below the median, respectively. Each 10 cc increase in EAT volume was associated with a significant 6% increase in the risk of death during follow-up [hazard ratio (HR): 1.060; 95% CI: 1.013–1.109; P-value = 0.012]. Conclusions In this subanalysis of a randomized trial, EAT was an independent predictor of mortality in incident hemodialysis patients after ∼4 years of follow-up. These hypothesis-generating findings will need confirmatory evidence. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Aims Digoxin is frequently used for rate control of atrial fibrillation (AF). It has, however, been associated with increased mortality. It remains unclear whether digoxin itself is responsible for the increased mortality (toxic drug effect) or whether it is prescribed to sicker patients with inherently higher mortality due to comorbidities. The goal of our study was to determine the relationship between digoxin and mortality in patients with AF. Methods and results The association between digoxin and mortality was assessed in patients enrolled in the AF Follow-Up Investigation of Rhythm Management (AFFIRM) trial using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Analyses were conducted in all patients and in subsets according to the presence or absence of heart failure (HF), as defined by a history of HF and/or an ejection fraction <40%. Digoxin was associated with an increase in all-cause mortality [estimated hazard ratio (EHR) 1.41, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19–1.67, P < 0.001], cardiovascular mortality (EHR 1.35, 95% CI 1.06–1.71, P = 0.016), and arrhythmic mortality (EHR 1.61, 95% CI 1.12–2.30, P = 0.009). The all-cause mortality was increased with digoxin in patients without or with HF (EHR 1.37, 95% CI 1.05–1.79, P = 0.019 and EHR 1.41, 95% CI 1.09–1.84, P = 0.010, respectively). There was no significant digoxin–gender interaction for all-cause (P = 0.70) or cardiovascular (P = 0.95) mortality. Conclusion Digoxin was associated with a significant increase in all-cause mortality in patients with AF after correcting for clinical characteristics and comorbidities, regardless of gender or of the presence or absence of HF. These findings call into question the widespread use of digoxin in patients with AF. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background The role of pre-transplant erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA) responsiveness in affecting post-transplant outcomes is not clear. Methods Linking the 5-year patient data of a large dialysis organization to the ‘Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients’, we identified 8795 hemodialyzed patients who underwent first kidney transplantation. Mortality or graft failure, delayed graft function (DGF) and acute rejection risks were estimated by Cox regression [hazard ratio (HR)] and logistic regression, respectively. Results Patients were 48 ± 14 years old and included 38% women and 36% diabetics. Compared to renal allograft recipients who were in the first quartile of pre-transplant ESA responsiveness index (ERI), i.e. ESA dose divided by hemoglobin and weight, recipients in second, third and fourth quartiles had higher adjusted graft-censored death HR (and 95% confidence intervals) of 1.7 (1.0–2.7), 1.8 (1.1–2.9) and 2.3 (1.4–3.9) and higher death-censored graft failure HR of 1.6 (1.0–2.5), 2.0 (1.2–3.1) and 1.6 (0.9–2.6), respectively. No significant association between pre-transplant ERI and post-transplant DGF or acute rejection was detected. Conclusions Higher pre-transplant ERI during the hemodialysis treatment period was associated with worse post-transplant long-term outcomes including increased all-cause death and higher risk of graft failure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gompertz and Weibull functions imply contrasting biological causes of demographic aging. The terms describing increasing mortality with age are multiplicative and additive, respectively, which could result from an increase in the vulnerability of individuals to extrinsic causes in the Gompertz model and the predominance of intrinsic causes at older ages in the Weibull model. Experiments that manipulate extrinsic mortality can distinguish these biological models. To facilitate analyses of experimental data, we defined a single index for the rate of aging (omega) for the Weibull and Gompertz functions. Each function described the increase in aging-related mortality in simulated ages at death reasonably well. However, in contrast to the Weibull omega(W), the Gompertz omega(G) was sensitive to variation in the initial mortality rate independently of aging-related mortality. Comparisons between wild and captive populations appear to support the intrinsic-causes model for birds, but give mixed support for both models in mammals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Stronger nicotine dependence is associated with greater lung cancer incidence and lung cancer death. This study investigates whether including nicotine dependence in risk prediction models for lung cancer incidence and mortality provides any important clinical benefits. Methods Smoking data were used from 14 123 participants in the American College of Radiology Imaging Network arm of the National Lung Screening trial. We added nicotine dependence as the primary exposure in two published lung cancer risk prediction models (Katki-Gu or PLCO-m2012) and compared four results: with no tobacco-dependence measure, with time to first cigarette, with heaviness of smoking index, and with Fagestrom test for nicotine dependence. We used a cross-validation method based on leave-one-out and compared performance using likelihood ratio tests (LRT), area under the curve, concordance, sensitivity and specificity for 1% and 2% risk thresholds, and net benefit statistics. Statistical tests were two-sided. Results All LRT results were statistically significant (P ≤.0001), whereas other tests were not, except that specificity statistically significantly improved (P < .0001). Because the LRT is asymptotically more powerful for testing for prediction gain, we conclude that both models were improved on a statistical level by adding dependence measures. The other performance statistics generally indicated that such gains were likely very small. Net benefit analysis confirmed there was no apparent clinical benefit for including dependence measures. Conclusions Although inclusion of dependence measures may not provide a clinical benefit when added to risk prediction models, nicotine-dependence measures should nonetheless be an integral tool for patient counseling and for encouraging tobacco cessation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]