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Background Hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitors (HIF-PHIs) are new therapeutic agents for anaemia in chronic kidney disease (CKD). We evaluated by meta-analysis and meta-regression the efficacy and safety of HIF-PHIs in patients with CKD-related anaemia. Methods We selected phase 3 randomized clinical trials (RCTs) comparing HIF-PHIs and erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) in dialysis and non-dialysis patients. Efficacy outcomes were the changes from baseline of haemoglobin, iron parameters (hepcidin, serum iron, TIBC, TSAT, ferritin) and intravenous iron dose; as safety outcomes we considered cancer, adjudicated major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), MACE+ (MACE plus hospitalization for hearth failure or unstable angina or thromboembolic event), thrombotic events (deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism), arterovenous fistula (AVF) thrombosis and death. Results We included 26 RCTs with 24   387 patients. Random effect meta-analysis of the unstandardized mean difference between HIF-PHIs and ESAs showed a significant change in haemoglobin levels from baseline of 0.10 g/dL (95% CI 0.02 to 0.17). Meta-regression analysis showed a significantly higher haemoglobin change for HIF-PHIs in younger patients and versus short-acting ESA (0.21 g/dL, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.29 versus –0.01, 95% CI –0.09 to 0.07 in studies using long-acting ESA, P  < .001). No significant effect on heterogeneity was found for type of HIF-PHIs. In comparison with ESAs, HIF-PHIs induced a significant decline in hepcidin and ferritin and a significant increase in serum iron and TIBC, while TSAT did not change; intravenous iron dose was lower with HIF-PHI (–3.1 mg/week, 95% CI –5.6 to –0.6, P  = .020). Rate ratio of cancer (0.93, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.13), MACE (1.00, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.07), MACE+ (1.01, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.06), thrombotic events (1.08, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.38), AVF thrombosis (1.02, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.13) and death (1.02, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.13) did not differ between HIF-PHIs and ESAs. Conclusions HIF-PHIs at the doses selected for the comparisons are effective in correcting anaemia in comparison with ESA therapy with a significant impact on iron metabolism without notable difference among various agents. No safety signals emerge with use of HIF-PHIs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The discovery and development of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents was a journey lasting more than a century, leading to the cloning and approval of recombinant human erythropoietin (rHuEpo). This was an impressive clinical advance, providing the possibility of correcting the symptoms associated with anaemia in chronic kidney disease. Associated iron use was needed to produce new haemoglobin-containing blood red cells. Partial anaemia correction became the standard of care since trials aiming for near-normal haemoglobin levels showed a higher risk of adverse cardiovascular events. Hoping to reduce the cardiovascular risks, a new category of drugs was developed and tested. Hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitors (HIF-PHIs) are small molecules than can be formulated into orally active pills. They simulate reduced tissue oxygen pressure, thus stimulating the production of endogenous erythropoietin (Epo) by the kidneys and liver. Clinical trials with these compounds demonstrated that HIF-PHIs are at least as effective as rHuEpo in treating or correcting anaemia in non-dialysis and dialysis patients. Trials with HIF-PHIs did not demonstrate superiority in safety outcomes and in some trials, outcomes were worse. There was also a focus on oral delivery, a possible beneficial iron-sparing effect and the ability to overcome Epo resistance in inflamed patients. A negative effect is possible iron depletion, which may explain adverse outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of time‐to‐event analysis, a primary objective is to model the risk of experiencing a particular event in relation to a set of observed predictors. The Concordance Index (C‐Index) is a statistic frequently used in practice to assess how well such models discriminate between various risk levels in a population. However, the properties of conventional C‐Index estimators when applied to left‐truncated time‐to‐event data have not been well studied, despite the fact that left‐truncation is commonly encountered in observational studies. We show that the limiting values of the conventional C‐Index estimators depend on the underlying distribution of truncation times, which is similar to the situation with right‐censoring as discussed in Uno et al. (2011) [On the C‐statistics for evaluating overall adequacy of risk prediction procedures with censored survival data. Statistics in Medicine 30(10), 1105–1117]. We develop a new C‐Index estimator based on inverse probability weighting (IPW) that corrects for this limitation, and we generalize this estimator to settings with left‐truncated and right‐censored data. The proposed IPW estimators are highly robust to the underlying truncation distribution and often outperform the conventional methods in terms of bias, mean squared error, and coverage probability. We apply these estimators to evaluate a predictive survival model for mortality among patients with end‐stage renal disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the emergence of hypoxia inducible factor–prolyl hydroxylase inhibitors (HIF-PHIs) came the hope that using these oral drugs could improve the treatment of the anemia of kidney disease. In this editorial we discuss the accumulated knowledge on these agents and the clinical context for use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background In kidney transplant recipients (KTR), the end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) risk dependent on the risk factors acting in native chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains undefined. Methods We compared risk and determinants of ESKD between 757 adult KTR and 1940 patients with native CKD before and after propensity-score (PS) analysis matched for unmodifiable risk factors [(age, sex, diabetes, cardiovascular disease and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)]. Results In unmatched cohorts, eGFR was lower in CKD versus KTR (45.9 ± 11.3 versus 59.2 ± 13.4 mL/min/1.73 m2, P < 0.001). During a median follow-up of 5.4 years, the unadjusted cumulative incidence of ESKD was consistently lower in unmatched KTR versus CKD. Conversely, in PS-matched analysis, the risk of ESKD in KTR was 78% lower versus CKD at 1 year of follow-up while progressively increased over time resulting similar to that of native CKD patients after 5 years and 2.3-fold higher than that observed in CKD at 10 years. R2 analysis in unmatched patients showed that the proportion of the outcome variance explained by traditional ESKD determinants was smaller in KTR versus native CKD (31% versus 70%). After PS matching, the risk of ESKD [hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence interval (95% CI)] was significantly associated with systolic blood pressure (1.02, 1.01–1.02), phosphorus (1.31, 1.05–1.64), 24-h proteinuria (1.11, 1.05–1.17) and haemoglobin (0.85, 0.78–0.93) irrespective of KTR status. Similar data were obtained after matching also for modifiable risk factors. Conclusions In KTR, when compared with matched native CKD patients, the risk of ESKD is lower in the first 5 years and higher later on. Traditional determinants of ESKD account for one-third of the variability of time-to-graft failure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Anaemia is common in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and assessment of the risks and benefits of new therapies is important. Methods The Anaemia Study in CKD: Erythropoiesis via a Novel prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor Daprodustat-Non-Dialysis (ASCEND-ND) trial includes adult patients with CKD Stages 3–5, not using erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) with screening haemoglobin (Hb) 8–10 g/dL or receiving ESAs with screening Hb of 8–12 g/dL. Participants were randomized to daprodustat or darbepoetin alfa (1:1) in an open-label trial (steering committee- and sponsor-blinded), with blinded endpoint assessment. The co-primary endpoints are mean change in Hb between baseline and evaluation period (average over Weeks 28–52) and time to first adjudicated major adverse cardiovascular (CV) event. Baseline characteristics were compared with those of participants in similar anaemia trials. Results Overall, 3872 patients were randomized from 39 countries (median age 67 years, 56% female, 56% White, 27% Asian and 10% Black). The median baseline Hb was 9.9 g/dL, blood pressure was 135/74 mmHg and estimated glomerular filtration rate was 18 mL/min/1.73 m2. Among randomized patients, 53% were ESA non-users, 57% had diabetes and 37% had a history of CV disease. At baseline, 61% of participants were using renin–angiotensin system blockers, 55% were taking statins and 49% were taking oral iron. Baseline demographics were similar to those in other large non-dialysis anaemia trials. Conclusion ASCEND-ND will define the efficacy and safety of daprodustat compared with darbepoetin alfa in the treatment of patients with anaemia associated with CKD not on dialysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: End-stage renal disease (ESRD) treated by chronic hemodialysis (HD) is associated with poor cardiovascular (CV) outcomes, with no available evidence-based therapeutics. A multiplexed proteomic approach may identify new pathophysiological pathways associated with CV outcomes, potentially actionable for precision medicine. Methods and results: The AURORA trial was an international, multicentre, randomized, double-blind trial involving 2776 patients undergoing maintenance HD. Rosuvastatin vs. placebo had no significant effect on the composite primary endpoint of death from CV causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction or nonfatal stroke. We first compared CV risk-matched cases and controls (n = 410) to identify novel biomarkers using a multiplex proximity extension immunoassay (276 proteomic biomarkers assessed with OlinkTM). We replicated our findings in 200 unmatched cases and 200 controls. External validation was conducted from a multicentre real-life Danish cohort [Aarhus-Aalborg (AA), n = 331 patients] in which 92 OlinkTM biomarkers were assessed. In AURORA, only N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP, positive association) and stem cell factor (SCF) (negative association) were found consistently associated with the trial's primary outcome across exploration and replication phases, independently from the baseline characteristics. Stem cell factor displayed a lower added predictive ability compared with NT-ProBNP. In the AA cohort, in multivariable analyses, BNP was found significantly associated with major CV events, while higher SCF was associated with less frequent CV deaths. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that NT-proBNP and SCF may help identify ESRD patients with respectively high and low CV risk, beyond classical clinical predictors and also point at novel pathways for prevention and treatment. Graphical abstract [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The A nemia S tudies in chronic kidney disease (C KD): E rythropoiesis via a N ovel prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor D aprodustat- D ialysis (ASCEND-D) trial will test the hypothesis that daprodustat is noninferior to comparator epoetin alfa or darbepoetin alfa for two co-primary endpoints: hemoglobin (Hb) efficacy and cardiovascular (CV) safety. Methods We report the trial design, key demographic, clinical and laboratory findings, and baseline therapies of 2964 patients randomized in the open-label (sponsor-blinded) active-controlled, parallel-group, randomized ASCEND-D clinical trial. We also compare baseline characteristics of ASCEND-D patients with patients who are on dialysis (CKD G5D) enrolled in other large CV outcome trials (CVOTs) and in the most relevant registries. Results The median age of patients was 58 years, 43% were female; 67% were White and 16% were Black. The median Hb at baseline was 10.4 g/dL. Among randomized patients, 89% were receiving hemodialysis and 11% peritoneal dialysis. Among key comorbidities, 42% reported a history of diabetes mellitus and 45% a history of CV disease. Median blood pressure was 134/74 mmHg. The median weekly dose of epoetin was 5751 units. Intravenous and oral iron uses were noted in 64 and 11% of patients, respectively. Baseline demographics were similar to patients with CKD G5D enrolled in other CVOTs and renal patient registries. Conclusions ASCEND-D will evaluate the efficacy and safety of daprodustat compared with epoetin alfa or darbepoetin alfa in the treatment of patients with anemia with CKD G5D. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02879305. EudraCT Number: 2016-000541-31; Sponsor Protocol Number: 200807. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: External validation of prognostic models is necessary to assess the accuracy and generalizability of the model to new patients. If models are validated in a setting in which competing events occur, these competing risks should be accounted for when comparing predicted risks to observed outcomes.Methods: We discuss existing measures of calibration and discrimination that incorporate competing events for time-to-event models. These methods are illustrated using a clinical-data example concerning the prediction of kidney failure in a population with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), using the guideline-recommended Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE). The KFRE was developed using Cox regression in a diverse population of CKD patients and has been proposed for use in patients with advanced CKD in whom death is a frequent competing event.Results: When validating the 5-year KFRE with methods that account for competing events, it becomes apparent that the 5-year KFRE considerably overestimates the real-world risk of kidney failure. The absolute overestimation was 10%age points on average and 29%age points in older high-risk patients.Conclusions: It is crucial that competing events are accounted for during external validation to provide a more reliable assessment the performance of a model in clinical settings in which competing risks occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The optimal level of salt intake remains ill-defined in non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients under regular nephrology care. This unanswered question becomes critical in older patients who are exposed to higher risk of worsening of cardiorenal disease due to volemic changes. Methods In this pooled analysis of four prospective studies in CKD, we compared the risk of all-cause mortality and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) between patients ≤65 and >65 years of age stratified by salt intake level (<6, 6–8 and >8 g/day) estimated from two measurements of 24-h urinary sodium. Results The cohort included 1785 patients. The estimated glomerular filtration rate was 37 ± 21 mL/min/1.73 m2 overall, 41 ± 25 in younger patients and 34 ± 16 in older patients (P < 0.001). The median 24-h urinary sodium excretion was 143 mEq [interquartile range (IQR) 109–182] in all, 147 (112–185) in younger patients and 140 (106–179) in older patients (P = 0.012). Salt intake was ≤6, 6–8 and >8 g sodium chloride/day in 21.9, 26.2 and 52.0% of older patients and 18.6, 25.2 and 56.2% in younger patients, respectively (P = 0.145). During a median follow-up of 4.07 years we registered 383 ESKD and 260 all-cause deaths. In the whole cohort, the risks of ESKD and all-cause death did not differ by salt intake level. In older patients, ESKD risk [multi-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI)] was significantly lower at salt intakes of 6–8 g/day [HR 0.577 (95% CI 0.361–0.924)] and >8 g/day [HR 0.564 (95% CI 0.382–0.833)] versus the reference group (<6 g/day). Mortality risk was higher in older versus younger patients, with no difference across salt intake categories. No effect of salt intake on ESKD and mortality was observed in younger patients. Conclusions CKD patients under nephrology care show a moderate salt intake (8.4 g/day) that is lower in older versus younger patients. In this context, older patients are not exposed to higher mortality across different levels of salt intake, while salt intake <6 g/day poses a greater risk of ESKD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an increasing public health issue. Anemia, which is a complication of CKD, is associated with reduced quality of life and increased morbidity and mortality. Currently quite a few clinical studies have been conducted to compare roxadustat with epoetin alfa [all for dialysis-dependent (DD) patients] or placebo [all for nondialysis-dependent (NDD) patients]. Our meta-analysis aimed to investigate the efficacy and safety of roxadustat for anemia in patients with CKD. Methods We thoroughly searched eight electronic resource databases for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing the efficacy and safety between roxadustat versus epoetin alfa or placebo for the treatment of anemia in patients with CKD. Results Four Phase 2 and two Phase 3 studies with 1010 participants were included. Hemoglobin (Hb) and transferrin levels were increased significantly in the roxadustat group versus those in the placebo {standard mean difference [SMD] 1.57 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17–1.98]; SMD 1.81 [95% CI 1.53–2.08]; respectively, both low-quality evidence} or epoetin alfa group [SMD 0.47 (95% CI 0.02–0.93), very low-quality evidence; SMD 1.05 (95% CI 0.81–1.29), low-quality evidence; respectively]. Hepcidin levels were reduced significantly in the roxadustat group versus those in the placebo [SMD −1.72 (95% CI −3.03 to −0.41), very low-quality evidence] or epoetin alfa group [SMD −0.23 (95% CI −0.43 to −0.02), low-quality evidence]. Ferritin and serum transferrin saturation (TSAT) levels were reduced significantly in the roxadustat group versus those in the placebo group [SMD −0.82 (95% CI −1.31 to −0.33); SMD −0.54 (95% CI −0.76 to −0.32), respectively; both low-quality evidence] and ferritin and TSAT levels in the roxadustat group were comparable to those in the epoetin alfa group [SMD 0.02 (95% CI −0.18–0.21); SMD 0.15 (95% CI −0.04–0.35), respectively, both low-quality evidence]. As for safety, the incidence of adverse events (AEs) in the roxadustat group was insignificantly different from that of the placebo group [risk ratio (RR) 0.99 (95% CI 0.83–1.18); P = 0.89, very low-quality evidence]. But the incidence of AEs in the roxadustat group was significantly higher than that in the epoetin alfa group [RR 1.25 (95% CI 1.01–1.54); P = 0.04, low-quality evidence]. There was no significant association between roxadustat and the incidence of serious AEs (SAEs) for both NDD and DD patients [RR 1.08 (95% CI 0.51–2.28) and RR 1.43 (95% CI 0.85–2.40), respectively, both very low-quality evidence]. Conclusion In this meta-analysis of RCTs, we found evidence that after the oral administration of roxadustat, NDD patients' Hb levels were increased effectively and DD patients' Hb levels were maintained effectively. The risk of SAEs was not observed with the short-term use of roxadustat. These findings support roxadustat for the treatment of anemia in patients with CKD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Despite the widespread use of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) to treat anaemia, the risk of adverse outcomes associated with the use of different types of ESAs in non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD) is poorly investigated. Methods From a pooled cohort of four observational studies, we selected CKD patients receiving short-acting (epoetin α/β; n  = 299) or long-acting ESAs (darbepoetin and methoxy polyethylene glycol-epoetin β; n  = 403). The primary composite endpoint was end-stage kidney disease (ESKD; dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause death. Multivariable Cox models were used to estimate the relative risk of the primary endpoint between short- and long-acting ESA users. Results During follow-up [median 3.6 years (interquartile range 2.1–6.3)], the primary endpoint was registered in 401 patients [166 (72%) in the short-acting ESA group and 235 (58%) in the long-acting ESA group]. In the highest tertile of short-acting ESA dose, the adjusted risk of primary endpoint was 2-fold higher {hazard ratio [HR] 2.07 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.37–3.12]} than in the lowest tertile, whereas it did not change across tertiles of dose for long-acting ESA patients. Furthermore, the comparison of ESA type in each tertile of ESA dose disclosed a significant difference only in the highest tertile, where the risk of the primary endpoint was significantly higher in patients receiving short-acting ESAs [HR 1.56 (95% CI 1.09–2.24); P = 0.016]. Results were confirmed when ESA dose was analysed as continuous variable with a significant difference in the primary endpoint between short- and long-acting ESAs for doses >105 IU/kg/week. Conclusions Among non-dialysis CKD patients, the use of a short-acting ESA may be associated with an increased risk of ESKD or death versus long-acting ESAs when higher ESA doses are prescribed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The prognostic relevance of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) has been scarcely studied in the dialysis population and the prognostic power for mortality of the HRQoL domains is unknown. Methods We tested the prognostic value for mortality of the HRQoL domains included in the 36-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) by Cox's regression analysis and by state-of-the-art prognostic techniques {explained variation in mortality [ R 2], calibration, discrimination [Harrell's C], risk reclassification [Net Reclassification Index (NRI)], Integrated Discrimination Index [IDI]} in a cohort of 951 patients on chronic haemodialysis. Results In multivariable Cox models, all but two domains (role limitation due to physical health and due to emotional problems) were independently related with mortality. Physical functioning was the domain adding the highest explanatory power (R 2+5.3%) to a basic model including established risk factors for mortality in the dialysis population. The same domain improved risk calibration and showed the highest Harrell's C (+1.7%) and the highest reclassification power (categorical NRI + 8.7%, continuous NRI +46%, P ≤ 0.006) and the highest IDI (+3.4%, P < 0.001). These results were fully confirmed in analyses testing the additional prognostic power of SF-36 domains when combined to a well-validated risk score in dialysis patients. Conclusions Physical functioning holds the highest prognostic power for mortality among the domains of SF-36. The gain in prognostic ability by this domain is relevant for clinical practice. Physical functioning has the potential for refining the prognosis and for informing exercise programmes in the dialysis population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background In non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD), absolute proteinuria (Uprot) depends on the extent of kidney damage and residual glomerular filtration rate (GFR). We therefore evaluated, as compared with Uprot, the strength of association of proteinuria indexed to estimated GFR (eGFR) with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) risk. Methods In a multi-cohort prospective study in 3957 CKD patients of Stages G3–G5 referred to nephrology clinics, we tested two multivariable Cox models for ESRD risk, with either Uprot (g/24 h) or filtration-adjusted proteinuria (F-Uprot) calculated as Uprot/eGFR ×100. Results Mean ± SD age was 67 ± 14 years, males 60%, diabetics 29%, cardiovascular disease (CVD) 34%, eGFR 32 ± 13 mL/min/1.73 m2, median (interquartile range) Uprot 0.41 (0.12–1.29) g/24 h and F-Uprot 1.41 (0.36–4.93) g/24 h per 100 mL/min/1.73 m2 eGFR. Over a median follow-up of 44 months, 862 patients reached ESRD. At competing risk analysis, ESRD risk progressively increased when F-Uprot was 1.0–4.9 and ≥5.0 versus <1.0 g/24 h per 100 mL/min/1.73 m2 eGFR in Stages G3a–G4 (P < 0.001) and Stage G5 (P = 0.002). Multivariable Cox analysis showed that Uprot predicts ESRD in Stages G3a–G4 while in G5 the effect was not significant; conversely, F-Uprot significantly predicted ESRD at all stages. The F-Uprot model allowed a significantly better prediction versus the Uprot model according to Akaike information criterion. Net reclassification improvement was 12.2% (95% confidence interval 4.2–21.1), with higher reclassification in elderly, diabetes and CVD, as well as in diabetic nephropathy and glomerulonephritis, and in CKD Stages G4 and G5. Conclusions In patients referred to nephrology clinics, F-Uprot predicts ESRD at all stages of overt CKD and improves, as compared with Uprot, reclassification of patients for renal risk, especially in more advanced and complicated disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background No study has assessed whether the prognosis of coexisting diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease (DM-CKD) is dictated by DM per se or by the extent of proteinuria. Methods In this pooled analysis of four prospective studies in CKD patients treated with drugs inhibiting the renin–angiotensin system, we compared the risk of all-cause mortality, fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular (CV) events and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) between patients with (n  = 693) and without diabetes (n  = 1481) stratified by proteinuria level (<0.15, 0.15–0.49, 0.5–1 and  >1 g/day). Results The group with DM-CKD was older (69 ± 11 versus 65 ± 15 years), had a higher body mass index (29.6 ± 5.4 versus 27.5 ± 4.8 kg/m2) and systolic blood pressure (143 ± 19 versus 136 ± 18 mmHg), prevalent CV disease (48% versus 29%) and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (34.5 ± 17.9 versus 36.6 ± 19.0 mL/min/1.73 m2). During 4.07 years of follow-up, there were 466 patients with ESRD, 334 deaths and 401 CV events occurred. In the subgroup with urine protein <0.15 g/day (N  = 662), the risks of ESRD, CV events and mortality were similar in diabetic and non-diabetic patients. Conversely, in DM-CKD patients, the mortality risk was higher in proteinuric patients {hazard ratio 1.92 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25–2.95); 1.99 (1.26–3.15) and 1.98 (1.28–3.06) for proteinuria 0.15–0.49, 0.5–1 and >1 g/day, respectively}, whereas in non-diabetics the mortality risk increased only for proteinuria 0.5–1 g/day [HR 1.60 (95% CI 1.07–2.40)] and >1 g/day [HR 1.69 (95% CI1.20–2.55)]. In both groups, CV risk had a trend similar to that of mortality. ESRD risk increased progressively across strata >0.5 g/day independent of diabetic status. Conclusions We provide evidence that patients with non-proteinuric DM-CKD are not exposed to higher cardiorenal risk. In contrast, in the presence of moderate proteinuria and diabetes per se is associated with a higher risk of mortality and CV events, whereas the entity of abnormal proteinuria modulates ESRD risk independent of diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND Impaired renal function is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and mortality. The impact of short-term renal function decline on outcomes is less well studied. The association of antihypertensive medications with the impact of short-term estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline is not known. METHODS We examined 20,207 hypertensive participants with baseline and 2-year creatinine levels from which eGFR changes were estimated. The associations between eGFR change with incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF), all-cause mortality, and ESRD during 2.9 years of in-trial follow up, and with mortality during in-trial and post-trial follow-up (7.6 years), were studied. Results were assessed by primary hypertension (HTN) treatment (chlorthalidone, lisinopril, and amlodipine) and adjusted for baseline eGFR levels. RESULTS In the short run, an eGFR decline below the cohort median (−1.28 ml/minute/1.73 m2/2 years) vs. above the median, or a 5 ml/min/1.73 m2/year decline vs. no decline, was associated with significant hazard risk for CHD (1.06–1.28), HF (1.24–1.91), ESRD (2.84–6.01), and mortality (1.08–1.19), but not with stroke risk. In the long term, there was a significant association with mortality (1.11–1.34). Interaction terms for outcomes by antihypertensive treatments were not statistically significant except for ESRD between amlodipine vs. chlorthalidone (hazard ratio: 3.17 [2.59, 3.88] vs. 2.41 [1.98, 2.97]; P interaction = 0.005) for a 5 ml/min/1.73 m2/year eGFR decline. CONCLUSION Decline in eGFR over 2 years is associated with increased risk of clinical outcomes beyond the effects of baseline eGFR. These risks were the same irrespective of the primary medication used to treat HTN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term follow-up is common in many medical investigations where the interest lies in predicting patients' risks for a future adverse outcome using repeatedly measured predictors over time. A key quantity is the likelihood of developing an adverse outcome among individuals who survived up to time s given their covariate information up to time s. Simple, yet reliable, methodology for updating the predicted risk of disease progression using longitudinal markers remains elusive. Two main approaches have been considered in the literature. One approach, based on joint modeling (JM) of failure time and longitudinal covariate process (Tsiatis and Davidian, 2004), derives such longitudinal predictive probability from the joint probability of a longitudinal marker and an event at a given time. A second approach, the partly conditional (PC) modeling (Zheng and Heagerty, 2005), directly models the predictive probability conditional on survival up to a landmark time and information accrued by that time. In this article, we propose new PC models for longitudinal prediction that are more flexible than joint modeling and improve the prediction accuracy over existing PC models. We provide procedures for making inference regarding future risk for an individual with longitudinal measures up to a given time. In addition, we conduct simulations to evaluate both JM and PC approaches in order to provide practical guidance on modeling choices. We use standard measures of predictive accuracy adapted to our setting to explore the predictiveness of the two approaches. We illustrate the performance of the two approaches on a dataset from the End Stage Renal Disease Study (ESRDS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Anemia is common in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and associated with poor outcomes. In cross-sectional studies, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) has been associated with increased risk for anemia. The aim of this study was to determine how hematocrit changes as eGFR declines and what factors impact this longitudinal association. Methods. We followed 1094 African-Americans with hypertensive nephropathy who participated in the African- American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension. Mixed effects models were used to determine longitudinal change in hematocrit as a function of eGFR. Interaction terms were used to assess for differential effects of age, gender, baseline eGFR, baseline proteinuria, malnutrition and inflammation on eGFR-associated declines in hematocrit. In sensitivity analyses, models were run using iGFR (by renal clearance of I125 iothalamate) in place of eGFR. Results. At baseline, mean hematocrit was 39% and 441 (40%) individuals had anemia. The longitudinal relationship between eGFR and hematocrit differed by baseline eGFR and was steeper when baseline eGFR was <45 mL/min/1.73 m². For example, the absolute decline in hematocrit per 10 mL/min/1.73 m2 decline in longitudinal eGFR was -3.7, -1.3 and -0.5% for baseline eGFR values of 20, 40 and 60 mL/min/1.73 m², respectively (P < 0.001 comparing the longitudinal association between baseline eGFR = 40 or 60 versus baseline eGFR = 20 mL/min/1.73 m²). Similarly, male sex, younger age (<65 years) and higher baseline proteinuria (protein-tocreatinine ratio >0.22) were associated with greater hematocrit declines per unit decrease in longitudinal eGFR compared with female sex, older age and low baseline proteinuria, respectively (P-interaction <0.05 for each comparison). The longitudinal eGFR-hematocrit association did not differ by body mass index, serum albumin or C-reactive protein. Conclusions. Men, younger individuals and those with low baseline eGFR (<45 mL/min/1.73 m2) or baseline proteinuria are particularly at risk for eGFR-related declines in hematocrit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The presence of chronic kidney disease is an independent prognostic factor in patients with myocardial infarction (MI). We compared the Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation and the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) study equation with regard to prognostic value in patients with MI. Methods This study analyzed a retrospective cohort of 11 050 consecutive patients who had MI and were enrolled in the Korea Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry from November 2005 to August 2008. We applied the CKD-EPI equation and the MDRD study equation to determine the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in a cohort of patients with MI. Results The mean eGFRCKD-EPI was slightly higher than that of eGFRMDRD (73.16 versus 72.23 mL/min/1.73 m2; P < 0.001). The prevalence of eGFRCKD-EPI <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 was 26.9%, whereas that of eGFRMDRD was 28.5%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was significantly larger for predicting the 1-year major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) and 1-year all-cause mortality with CKD-EPI equation (0.648 versus 0.641, 0.768 versus 0.753, respectively; P < 0.001). The net reclassification index for improvement in risk of 1-year MACE and 1-year all-cause mortality were 4.09% (P< 0.001) and 9.25% (P< 0.001), respectively. Conclusions The application of the eGFRCKD-EPI demonstrated better predictive values for clinical outcomes than eGFRMDRD in a cohort of patients with MI. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background Lower responsiveness to erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESA-R) predicts cardiovascular (CV) events. Whether ESA-R also affects the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is unknown. Methods We evaluated ESA-R in 194 consecutive chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, regularly seen in outpatient nephrology clinics, who started erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA) therapy between 2002–06. Exclusion criteria were causes of anaemia other than CKD or recent transfusion. ESA-R was calculated as (Hb1 − Hb0)/time/ESA dose (g/dL/month/10 μg/week of ESA). Patients were classified, from lower to higher tertile of ESA-R, as poor, intermediate and good responders. Time to ESRD was the primary outcome. Results Age was 64 ± 16 years, 48% were male, 34% had diabetes and 32% had CV disease, glomerular filtration rate (GFR) 24 ± 13 mL/min/1.73 m2 and proteinuria 0.6 g/dL (interquartile range 0.2–1.9). First ESA dose was 23.7 ± 10.8 μg/week; haemoglobin (Hb) increased from 9.9 ± 0.8 g/dL to 11.0 ± 1.2 g/dL at first control, obtained after 1.4 ± 0.4 months. These changes corresponded to an ESA-R of 0.37 ± 0.38 g/dL/month/10 μg/week of ESA and tertiles limits were 0.17 and 0.47. Poor responders were younger and had lower GFR and higher proteinuria than intermediate and good responders. During the first 6 months of ESA therapy, poor responders showed lower Hb levels and sustained longer periods of Hb level <11 g/dL. During follow-up (median 3.0 years), 99 patients reached ESRD. At multivariable Cox's analysis, poor responsiveness was associated with higher risk of ESRD (hazard ratio 2.49, 95% confidence interval 1.28–4.84). Conclusion ESA-R predicts renal prognosis in CKD patients followed in nephrology practice, where ESRD is the predominant outcome and ESA is commonly used at low dose. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]