Search

Mortality estimates of the 1918 influenza pandemic vary considerably, and recent estimates have suggested that there were 50-100 million deaths worldwide. Method We investigated the global mortality burden using an indirect estimation approach and two publically available datasets: the Human Mortality Database (13 countries) and data extracted from the records of the Statistical Abstract for British India. The all-cause Human Mortality Database allowed us to estimate mortality annually in 1916-1921 for detailed age groups. Results Three different calculation methods were applied to the data (low, medium and high scenarios) and we used a multilevel regression model to control for distorting factors (e.g. war and the underlying time trend in mortality). We found that total pandemic mortality was an estimated 15 million deaths worldwide in 1918 (2.5 million in 1919), after including the rates for British India and controlling for wars and the underlying mortality trend. Our validity analysis showed that simulations of total mortality above 25 million are not realistic based on the underlying mortality rates included in Human Mortality Database and in British India. Conclusion Our results suggest that the global mortality impact of the 1918 pandemic was important (17.4 million) but not as severe as most frequently cited estimates.

BackgroundSelf-referral for physical therapy was introduced in 2006 in the Netherlands. Internationally, debate on self-referral is still ongoing.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of self-referral for physical therapy in the Netherlands, focusing on volume of general practice and physical therapy care (incidence rates and utilization of services).DesignThe study was based on monitoring data from existing data sources.MethodsLongitudinal electronic medical record data from general practitioners (GPs) and physical therapists participating in the NIVEL Primary Care Database were used, as well as public data from Statistics Netherlands. Descriptive statistics and Poisson multilevel regression analyses were used for analyzing the data.ResultsIncidence rates of back (including low back), shoulder, and neck pain in general practice declined slightly from 2004 to 2009. No linear trends were found for number of contacts in GP care for back (including low back) and neck pain. The number of patients visiting physical therapists and the proportion of self-referrers are growing. Self-referrers receive treatment less often after initial intake than referred patients, and the mean number of visits is lower.LimitationsThis study was based on data of various patient populations from existing data sources.ConclusionsThe current study indicates that self-referral in the Netherlands has fulfilled most expectations held prior to its introduction, although no changes to the workload of GP care have been found. Use of physical therapy grew, but due to population aging and increasing prevalence of chronic diseases, it remains unclear whether self-referral affects health care utilization. Therefore, cost-benefit analyses are recommended.

ObjectiveTo examine how information presentation affects the understanding and use of information for quality improvement.DesignAn experimental design, testing 22 formats, and showing information on patient safety culture. Formats differed in visualization, outcomes and benchmark information.Intervention(s)Respondents viewed three randomly selected presentation formats in an online survey, completing several tasks per format.SettingThe hospital sector in the Netherlands.ParticipantsA volunteer sample of healthcare professionals, mainly nurses, working in hospitals. Main Outcome Measure(s): The degree to which information is understandable and usable (accurate choice for quality improvement, sense of urgency to change and appraisal of one's own performance).ResultsAbout 115 healthcare professionals participated (response rate 25%), resulting in 345 reviews.UnderstandabilityInformation in tables (P = 0.007) and bar charts (P < 0.0001) was better understood than radars. Presenting outcomes on a 5-point scale (P < 0.001) or as ‘% positive responders’ (P < 0.001) was better understood than ‘% negative responders’. Formats without benchmarks were better understood than formats with benchmarks. Use: Bar charts resulted in more accurate choices than tables (P = 0.003) and radars (P < 0.001). Outcomes on a 5-point scale resulted in more accurate choices than ‘% negative responders’ (P = 0.007). Presenting ‘% positive responders’ resulted in a higher sense of urgency to change than outcomes on a 5-point scale (P = 0.002). Benchmark information had inconsistent effects on the appraisal of one's own performances.ConclusionsInformation presentation affects healthcare professionals’ understanding and use of quality information. Our findings supplement the further understanding on how quality information can be best communicated to healthcare professionals for realizing quality improvements.understanding and using information, presentation approach, healthcare professionals

BACKGROUND: This study aims to examine the impact of women's characteristics (demographics, risk behaviour, and beliefs) on the uptake of cervical cancer screening, taking practice characteristics (demographic and organizational) into account. METHODS: Routinely collected data of screening status were sampled from electronic medical records of 32 Dutch general practices. Additionally, a questionnaire was sent to a sample of 2224 listed women--1204 screened, 1020 unscreened. We used a step-by-step, logistic, multilevel approach to examine determinants of the screening uptake. RESULTS: Analyses of data for 1392 women (968 screened and 424 unscreened) showed that women's beliefs about cervical screening and attendance are the best predictors of screening uptake, even when demographic and organizational aspects are taken into account. Women aged 40-50 years who felt high personal moral obligation, who had only one sexual partner ever, and who were invited and reminded by their own general practice had the greatest likelihood of screening uptake. A non-response study was performed; the non-responders to the questionnaire (mainly unscreened) thought they had less risk of cervical cancer, were less motivated, less often intended to get future screening, and were more convinced that cervical cancer cannot be cured. CONCLUSION: To improve the uptake rate, we should focus on the personal moral obligation of eligible women, beliefs about the risks of cervical cancer, and available cures. Invitations and reminders within general practices enhance the uptake rate. (aut.ref.)

Objective: The present study was conducted in order to determine the change of frequency and type of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) regimen newly prescribed by Dutch GPs. Methods: A comparison was made of two data sets (multi-stage random samples) collected in 1987/88 and from 1995 to 1998 concerning women 40 years and older who were newly prescribed HRT. Results: Compared with 1987/88, 50% more patients were newly prescribed HRT in 1998 (2.0 in 1987/88 and 3.0 in 1998 per 1000 registered women, P

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: A descriptive study on 118 MS patients in general practice, to describe the family physician's role in diagnosis, treatment and follow-up of patients. METHOD: Random sample of 103 general practices (161 family physicians) throughout The Netherlands with a total list of 335,000 patients. RESULTS: MS patients had on average 5.7 encounters with general practice in 3 months compared to 2.3 in all other patients (P < 0.001). Home visits counted for 38.7% of all family physician's encounters in MS patients compared to 16.6% in all other patients (P < 0.01). The average encounter lasted 12.9 minutes per MS patient compared to 7.8 in all other patients (P < 0.01). Counselling by the family physician took place in all new patients and in 53% of known patients. Follow-up appointments were made with all new patients and 65.9% of all MS patients. Fifteen patients (12.7%) were newly referred to a specialist and 28 patients (24%) were still treated by specialists. No medication was prescribed to almost 40% of patients. Vitamin B, benzodiazepines, laxatives, antibiotics for treatment of urinary tract infections and muscle relaxants are the most frequently prescribed drugs. The average dose of vitamin B complex was 1.94 times the defined daily dose. CONCLUSIONS: The family physician spends more time than average on MS patients, carries out more home visits and takes care of treatment of symptoms and complications of MS. Counselling and follow-up of patients takes an important place in family physician's management of MS. Vitamin B complex is being prescribed (too) frequently in a (too) high dose. (aut. ref.)