1. Clinical and Host Biological Factors Predict Colectomy Risk in Children Newly Diagnosed With Ulcerative Colitis
- Author
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Suresh Venkateswaran, Thomas D. Walters, Subra Kugathasan, Cary G. Sauer, Joelynn Dailey, James Markowitz, Marian Pfefferkorn, Neal S. Leleiko, Yael Haberman, Jeffrey S. Hyams, Brendan M. Boyle, Michael Brimacombe, Robert N. Baldassano, Lee A. Denson, David R. Mack, Joel R. Rosh, Angela Mo, Anne M. Griffiths, Greg Gibson, Ashish S. Patel, and Sapana Shah
- Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty ,Adolescent ,medicine.medical_treatment ,Gastroenterology ,Cohort Studies ,Biological Factors ,Internal medicine ,medicine ,Humans ,Immunology and Allergy ,Child ,Mesalamine ,Colectomy ,Retrospective Studies ,medicine.diagnostic_test ,business.industry ,Proportional hazards model ,Area under the curve ,Gene signature ,medicine.disease ,Ulcerative colitis ,Infliximab ,Confidence interval ,Treatment Outcome ,Child, Preschool ,Erythrocyte sedimentation rate ,Colitis, Ulcerative ,Leading Off ,business ,medicine.drug - Abstract
Background Develop a clinical and biological predictive model for colectomy risk in children newly diagnosed with ulcerative colitis (UC). Methods This was a multicenter inception cohort study of children (ages 4-17 years) newly diagnosed with UC treated with standardized initial regimens of mesalamine or corticosteroids (CS) depending upon initial disease severity. Therapy escalation to immunomodulators or infliximab was based on predetermined criteria. Patients were phenotyped by clinical activity per the Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index (PUCAI), disease extent, endoscopic/histologic severity, and laboratory markers. In addition, RNA sequencing defined pretreatment rectal gene expression and high density DNA genotyping by the Affymetrix UK Biobank Axiom Array. Coprimary outcomes were colectomy over 3 years and time to colectomy. Generalized linear models, Cox proportional hazards multivariate regression modeling, and Kaplan-Meier plots were used. Results Four hundred twenty-eight patients (mean age 13 years) started initial theapy with mesalamine (n = 136), oral CS (n = 144), or intravenous CS (n = 148). Twenty-five (6%) underwent colectomy at ≤1 year, 33 (9%) at ≤2 years, and 35 (13%) at ≤3 years. Further, 32/35 patients who had colectomy failed infliximab. An initial PUCAI ≥ 65 was highly associated with colectomy (P = 0.0001). A logistic regression model predicting colectomy using the PUCAI, hemoglobin, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate had a receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.78 (95% confidence interval [0.73, 0.84]). Addition of a pretreatment rectal gene expression panel reflecting activation of the innate immune system and response to external stimuli and bacteria to the clinical model improved the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve to 0.87 (95% confidence interval [0.82, 0.91]). Conclusions A small group of children newly diagnosed with severe UC still require colectomy despite current therapies. Our gene signature observations suggest additional targets for management of those patients not responding to current medical therapies.
- Published
- 2021