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2. Use of platelet inhibitors for digital ulcers related to systemic sclerosis: EUSTAR study on derivation and validation of the DU-VASC model

Author

Alexandru Garaiman 1, Klaus Steigmiller 2, Catherine Gebhard 3, Carina Mihai 1, Rucsandra Dobrota 1, Cosimo Bruni 4, Marco Matucci-Cerinic 5, Joerg Henes 6, Jeska de Vries-Bouwstra 7, Vanessa Smith 8, Andrea Doria 9, Yannick Allanore 10, Lorenzo Dagna 11, Branimir Anić 12, Carlomaurizio Montecucco 13, Otylia Kowal-Bielecka 14, Mickael Martin 15, Yoshiya Tanaka 16, Anna-Maria Hoffmann-Vold 17, Ulrike Held 2, Oliver Distler 1, Mike Oliver Becker 1, EUSTAR Silvia Bellando Randone, Gemma Lepri, Ulrich Walker, Florenzo Iannone, Suzana Jordan, Radim Becvar, Ewa Gindzienska-Sieskiewicz, Katarzyna Karaszewska, Maurizio Cutolo, Giovanna Cuomo, Elise Siegert, Simona Rednic, Jérome Avouac, Carole Desbas, Roberto Caporali, Lorenzo Cavagna, Patricia E Carreira, Srdan Novak, László Czirják, Michele Iudici, Eugene J Kucharz, Elisabetta Zanatta, Bernard Coleiro, Gianluca Moroncini, Dominique Farge Bancel, Paolo Airò, Roger Hesselstr, Mislav Radic, Alexandra Balbir-Gurman, Nicolas Hunzelmann, Raffaele Pellerito, Alessandro Giollo, Jadranka Morovic-Vergles, Christopher Denton, Nemanja Damjanov, Ann-Christian Pecher, Vera Ortiz Santamaria, Stefan Heitmann, Dorota Krasowska, Paul Hasler, Ivan Foeldvari, Maria João Salvador, Bojana Stamenkovic, Carlo Francesco Selmi, Lidia P Ananieva, Ariane Herrick, Ulf Müller-Ladner, Raffaele De Palma, Merete Engelhart, Gabriela Szücs, Carlos de la Puente, Øyvind Midtvedt, Torhild Garen, Håvard Fretheim, Eric Hachulla, Valeria Riccieri, Ruxandra Maria Ionescu, Ana Maria Gheorghiu, Cord Sunderkötter, Jörg Distler, Francesca Ingegnoli, Luc Mouthon, Francesco Paolo Cantatore, Susanne Ullman, Maria Rosa Pozzi, Kilian Eyerich, Piotr Wiland, Marie Vanthuyne, Juan Jose Alegre-Sancho, Kristine Herrmann, Ellen De Langhe, Marko Baresic, Miroslav Mayer, Sule Yavuz, Brigitte Granel, Carolina de Souza Müller, Svetlana Agachi, Simon Stebbings, D'Alessandro Mathieu, Alessandra Vacca, Kamal Solanki, Douglas Veale, Esthela Loyo, Carmen Tineo, Mengtao Li, Edoardo Rosato, Fahrettin Oksel, Figen Yargucu, Cristina-Mihaela Tanaseanu, Rosario Foti, Codrina Ancuta, Britta Maurer, Jacob van Laar, Marzena Olesinska, Cristiane Kayser, Nihal Fathi, Paloma García de la Peña Lefebvre, Jorge Juan Gonzalez Martin, Jean Sibilia, Ira Litinsky, Francesco Del Galdo, Lesley Ann Saketkoo, Eduardo Kerzberg, Washington Bianch, Breno Valdetaro Bianchi, Ivan Castellví, Massimiliano Limonta, Doron Rimar, Maura Couto, François Spertini, Antonella Marcoccia, Sarah Kahl, Ivien M Hsu, Thierry Martin, Sergey Moiseev, Pavel Novikov, Lorinda S Chung, Tim Schmeiser, Dominik Majewski, Zbigniew Zdrojewski, Julia Martínez-Barrio, Vera Bernardino, Gabriela Riemekasten, Yair Levy, Elena Rezus, Omer Nuri Pamuk, Piercarlo Sarzi Puttini, Hadi Poormoghim, Ina Kötter, Francis Gaches, Laura Belloli, Petros Sfikakis, Daniel Furst, Ana-Maria Ramazan, H U Scherer, Tom W J Huizinga, Marie-Elise Truchetet, Alain Lescoat, Giacomo De Luca, Corrado Campochiaro, J M van Laar, Lidia Rudnicka, Susana Oliveira, Fabiola Atzeni, Masataka Kuwana, Arsene Mekinian, Cédric L, Mathieu Puyade, Pascal Roblot, Satoshi Kubo, Yasuyuki Todoroki, 1, Alexandru Garaiman, 2, Klaus Steigmiller, 3, Catherine Gebhard, 1, Carina Mihai, 1, Rucsandra Dobrota, 4, Cosimo Bruni, 5, Marco Matucci-Cerinic, 6, Joerg Hene, 7, Jeska de Vries-Bouwstra, 8, Vanessa Smith, 9, Andrea Doria, Allanore 10, Yannick, Dagna 11, Lorenzo, Anić 12, Branimir, Montecucco 13, Carlomaurizio, Kowal-Bielecka 14, Otylia, Martin 15, Mickael, Tanaka 16, Yoshiya, Hoffmann-Vold 17, Anna-Maria, 2, Ulrike Held, 1, Oliver Distler, 1, Mike Oliver Becker, Silvia Bellando Randone, Eustar, Lepri, Gemma, Walker, Ulrich, Iannone, Florenzo, Jordan, Suzana, Becvar, Radim, Gindzienska-Sieskiewicz, Ewa, Karaszewska, Katarzyna, Cutolo, Maurizio, Cuomo, Giovanna, Siegert, Elise, Rednic, Simona, Avouac, Jérome, Desbas, Carole, Caporali, Roberto, Cavagna, Lorenzo, E Carreira, Patricia, Novak, Srdan, Czirják, László, Iudici, Michele, J Kucharz, Eugene, Zanatta, Elisabetta, Coleiro, Bernard, Moroncini, Gianluca, Farge Bancel, Dominique, Airò, Paolo, Hesselstr, Roger, Radic, Mislav, Balbir-Gurman, Alexandra, Hunzelmann, Nicola, Pellerito, Raffaele, Giollo, Alessandro, Morovic-Vergles, Jadranka, Denton, Christopher, Damjanov, Nemanja, Pecher, Ann-Christian, Ortiz Santamaria, Vera, Heitmann, Stefan, Krasowska, Dorota, Hasler, Paul, Foeldvari, Ivan, João Salvador, Maria, Stamenkovic, Bojana, Francesco Selmi, Carlo, P Ananieva, Lidia, Herrick, Ariane, Müller-Ladner, Ulf, DE PALMA, Raffaele, Engelhart, Merete, Szücs, Gabriela, de la Puente, Carlo, Midtvedt, Øyvind, Garen, Torhild, Fretheim, Håvard, Hachulla, Eric, Riccieri, Valeria, Maria Ionescu, Ruxandra, Maria Gheorghiu, Ana, Sunderkötter, Cord, Distler, Jörg, Ingegnoli, Francesca, Mouthon, Luc, Paolo Cantatore, Francesco, Ullman, Susanne, Rosa Pozzi, Maria, Eyerich, Kilian, Wiland, Piotr, Vanthuyne, Marie, Jose Alegre-Sancho, Juan, Herrmann, Kristine, De Langhe, Ellen, Baresic, Marko, Mayer, Miroslav, Yavuz, Sule, Granel, Brigitte, de Souza Müller, Carolina, Agachi, Svetlana, Stebbings, Simon, Mathieu, D'Alessandro, Vacca, Alessandra, Solanki, Kamal, Veale, Dougla, Loyo, Esthela, Tineo, Carmen, Li, Mengtao, Rosato, Edoardo, Oksel, Fahrettin, Yargucu, Figen, Tanaseanu, Cristina-Mihaela, Foti, Rosario, Ancuta, Codrina, Maurer, Britta, van Laar, Jacob, Olesinska, Marzena, Kayser, Cristiane, Fathi, Nihal, García de la Peña Lefebvre, Paloma, Juan Gonzalez Martin, Jorge, Sibilia, Jean, Litinsky, Ira, Del Galdo, Francesco, Ann Saketkoo, Lesley, Kerzberg, Eduardo, Bianch, Washington, Valdetaro Bianchi, Breno, Castellví, Ivan, Limonta, Massimiliano, Rimar, Doron, Couto, Maura, Spertini, Françoi, Marcoccia, Antonella, Kahl, Sarah, M Hsu, Ivien, Martin, Thierry, Moiseev, Sergey, Novikov, Pavel, S Chung, Lorinda, Schmeiser, Tim, Majewski, Dominik, Zdrojewski, Zbigniew, Martínez-Barrio, Julia, Bernardino, Vera, Riemekasten, Gabriela, Levy, Yair, Rezus, Elena, Nuri Pamuk, Omer, Sarzi Puttini, Piercarlo, Poormoghim, Hadi, Kötter, Ina, Gaches, Franci, Belloli, Laura, Sfikakis, Petro, Furst, Daniel, Ramazan, Ana-Maria, U Scherer, H, J Huizinga, Tom W, Truchetet, Marie-Elise, Lescoat, Alain, De Luca, Giacomo, Campochiaro, Corrado, M van Laar, J, Rudnicka, Lidia, Oliveira, Susana, Atzeni, Fabiola, Kuwana, Masataka, Mekinian, Arsene, L, Cédric, Puyade, Mathieu, Roblot, Pascal, Kubo, Satoshi, Todoroki, Yasuyuki, and University of Zurich

Subjects
prognostic prediction model, Rheumatology, 10051 Rheumatology Clinic and Institute of Physical Medicine, digital ulcers, platelets inhibitors, 610 Medicine & health, Pharmacology (medical), SSc, 10060 Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute (EBPI)
Abstract

Objective To develop and validate the prognostic prediction model DU-VASC to assist the clinicians in decision-making regarding the use of platelet inhibitors (PIs) for the management of digital ulcers in patients with systemic sclerosis. Secondly, to assess the incremental value of PIs as predictor. Methods We analysed patient data from the European Scleroderma Trials and Research group registry (one time point assessed). Three sets of derivation/validation cohorts were obtained from the original cohort. Using logistic regression, we developed a model for prediction of digital ulcers (DUs). C-Statistics and calibration plots were calculated to evaluate the prediction performance. Variable importance plots and the decrease in C-statistics were used to address the importance of the predictors. Results Of 3710 patients in the original cohort, 487 had DUs and 90 were exposed to PIs. For the DU-VASC model, which includes 27 predictors, we observed good calibration and discrimination in all cohorts (C-statistic = 81.1% [95% CI: 78.9%, 83.4%] for the derivation and 82.3% [95% CI: 779.3%, 85.3%] for the independent temporal validation cohort). Exposure to PIs was associated with absence of DUs and was the most important therapeutic predictor. Further important factors associated with absence of DUs were lower modified Rodnan skin score, anti-Scl-70 negativity and normal CRP. Conversely, the exposure to phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitor, prostacyclin analogues or endothelin receptor antagonists seemed to be associated with the occurrence of DUs. Nonetheless, previous DUs remains the most impactful predictor of DUs. Conclusion The DU-VASC model, with good calibration and discrimination ability, revealed that PI treatment was the most important therapy-related predictor associated with reduced DU occurrence.

Published
2022

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