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In this letter, we explore the quiescent lives of central galaxies using the SAGE galaxy model and Uchuu dark matter simulation. We ask three questions: (1) How much of a galaxy's life is spent in quiescence? (2) How often do galaxies transition off the main sequence? (3) What is the typical duration of a quiescent phase? We find low and high-mass galaxies spend the highest fraction of their lives in quiescence: 45 \pm 19% for log10(Mstar) < 9.0 (3.68 \pm 1.80 Gyr) and 26 \pm 25% for log10(Mstar) > 11.5 (3.46 \pm 3.30 Gyr), falling to 7 \pm 13% for galaxies in-between (0.82 \pm 1.57 Gyr). Low mass galaxies move in and out of quiescence frequently, 2.8 \pm 1.3 times on average, though only for short periods, 1.49 \pm 1.04 Gyr. This can be traced to the influence of supernova feedback on their quite stochastic evolution. Galaxies of higher mass have fewer quiescent periods, ~0.7 \pm 0.9, and their length increases with mass, peaking at 1.97 \pm 2.27 Gyr. However, our high-mass population comprises star-forming and quiescent galaxies with diverging evolutionary paths, so the actual time may be even longer. These high-mass trends are driven by radio mode feedback from supermassive black holes, which, once active, tend to remain active for extended periods., 5 pages, 3 figures, accepted to MNRAS Letters, open access version see https://doi.org/10.1093/mnrasl/slad031

We study the dust evolution in galaxies by implementing a detailed dust prescription in the SAGE semi-analytical model for galaxy formation. The new model, called Dusty SAGE, follows the condensation of dust in the ejecta of type II supernovae and asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars, grain growth in the dense molecular clouds, destruction by supernovae shocks, and the removal of dust from the ISM by star formation, reheating, inflows and outflows. Our model successfully reproduces the observed dust mass function at redshift z = 0 and the observed scaling relations for dust across a wide range of redshifts. We find that the dust mass content in the present Universe is mainly produced via grain growth in the interstellar medium (ISM). By contrast, in the early Universe, the primary production mechanism for dust is the condensation in stellar ejecta. The shift of the significant production channel for dust characterises the scaling relations of dust-to-gas (DTG) and dust-to-metal (DTM) ratios. In galaxies where the grain growth dominates, we find positive correlations for DTG and DTM ratios with both metallicity and stellar mass. On the other hand, in galaxies where dust is produced primarily via condensation, we find negative or no correlation for DTM and DTG ratios with either metallicity or stellar mass. In agreement with observation showing that the circumgalactic medium (CGM) contains more dust than the ISM, our model also shows the same trend for z < 4. Our semi-analytic model is publicly available at https: //github.com/dptriani/dusty-sage., 19 pages, 14 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

We compute the bispectra of the 21cm signal during the Epoch of Reionization for three different reionization scenarios that are based on a dark matter N-body simulation combined with a self-consistent, semi-numerical model of galaxy evolution and reionization. Our reionization scenarios differ in their trends of ionizing escape fractions ($f_\mathrm{esc}$) with the underlying galaxy properties and cover the physically plausible range, i.e. $f_\mathrm{esc}$ effectively decreasing, being constant, or increasing with halo mass. We find the 21cm bispectrum to be sensitive to the resulting ionization topologies that significantly differ in their size distribution of ionized and neutral regions throughout reionization. From squeezed to stretched triangles, the 21cm bispectra features a change of sign from negative to positive values, with ionized and neutral regions representing below-average and above-average concentrations contributing negatively and positively, respectively. The position of the change of sign provides a tracer of the size distribution of the ionized and neutral regions, and allows us to identify three major regimes that the 21cm bispectrum undergoes during reionization. In particular the regime during the early stages of reionization, where the 21cm bispectrum tracks the peak of the size distribution of the ionized regions, provides exciting prospects for pinning down reionization with the forthcoming Square Kilometre Array., Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

The exact role of quasars during the Epoch of Reionization remains uncertain. With consensus leaning towards quasars producing a negligible amount of ionizing photons, we pose an alternate question: Can quasars indirectly contribute to reionization by allowing ionizing photons from stars to escape more easily? Using the Semi-Analytic Galaxy Evolution model to evolve a galaxy population through cosmic time, we construct an idealized scenario in which the escape fraction of stellar ionizing photons ($f_\mathrm{esc}$) is boosted following quasar wind events, potentially for several dynamical times. We find that under this scenario, the mean value of $f_\mathrm{esc}$ as a function of galaxy stellar mass peaks for intermediate mass galaxies. This mass dependence will have consequences for the 21cm power spectrum, enhancing power at small scales and suppressing it at large scales. This hints that whilst quasars may not directly contribute to the ionizing photon budget, they could influence reionization indirectly by altering the topology of ionized regions., Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures

Virtual Observatories (VOs) are online hubs of scientific knowledge. They encompass a collection of platforms dedicated to the storage and dissemination of astronomical data, from simple data archives to e-research platforms offering advanced tools for data exploration and analysis. Whilst the more mature platforms within VOs primarily serve the observational community, there are also services fulfilling a similar role for theoretical data. Scientific visualization can be an effective tool for analysis and exploration of datasets made accessible through web platforms for theoretical data, which often contain spatial dimensions and properties inherently suitable for visualization via e.g. mock imaging in 2d or volume rendering in 3d. We analyze the current state of 3d visualization for big theoretical astronomical datasets through scientific web portals and virtual observatory services. We discuss some of the challenges for interactive 3d visualization and how it can augment the workflow of users in a virtual observatory context. Finally we showcase a lightweight client-server visualization tool for particle-based datasets allowing quantitative visualization via data filtering, highlighting two example use cases within the Theoretical Astrophysical Observatory., Comment: 10 Pages, 13 Figures, Accepted for Publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

We investigate the properties of the stellar populations of model galaxies as a function of galaxy evolutionary history and angular momentum content. We use the new semi-analytic model presented in Tonini et al. (2016). This new model follows the angular momentum evolution of gas and stars, providing the base for a new star formation recipe, and treatment of the effects of mergers that depends on the central galaxy dynamical structure. We find that the new recipes have the effect of boosting the efficiency of the baryonic cycle in producing and recycling metals, as well as preventing minor mergers from diluting the metallicity of bulges and ellipticals. The model reproduces the stellar mass - stellar metallicity relation for galaxies above 1e10 solar masses, including Brightest Cluster Galaxies. Model disks, galaxies dominated by instability-driven components, and merger-driven objects each stem from different evolutionary channels. These model galaxies therefore occupy different loci in the galaxy mass-size relation, which we find to be in accord with the Atlas 3D classification of disk galaxies, fast rotators and slow rotators. We find that the stellar populations' properties depend on the galaxy evolutionary type, with more evolved stellar populations being part of systems that have lost or dissipated more angular momentum during their assembly history., 15 pages, 9 figures (3 new figures), accepted on MNRAS

Approximately half of the matter in the Universe is "unbound" at z = 0, according to N-body simulations such as the Millennium Run. Here, we use the milli-Millennium simulation to examine the distribution of unbound matter in relation to the dark matter halos which host galaxies. We measure the unbound matter within two types of windows, using a halo dependent radius and a fixed radius at several different scales. We also consider the timescales over which a halo can accrete the local unbound matter at z = 2 and z = 0. Finally, we compare the unbound matter to observable properties of galaxies, such as local galaxy count environment and stellar mass. We find that halos at z = 2 can accrete far more of the nearby unbound matter over a Hubble time than halos at z = 0 and that 78% of particles within 5 $R_{vir}$ of a halo at z = 2 will be accreted by z = 0, compared to 36% of particles within 5 $h^{-1}$ Mpc of the halo. We also find that galaxy count environment is closely related to the amount of nearby unbound matter when measured on the same scale., 14 pages, 9 Figures, Accepted MNRAS

Recent observations have probed the formation histories of nearby elliptical galaxies by tracking correlations between the stellar population parameters, age and metallicity, and the structural parameters that enter the Fundamental Plane, radius and velocity dispersion sigma. These studies have found intriguing correlations between these four parameters. In this work, we make use of a semi-analytic model, based on halo merger trees extracted from the Bolshoi cosmological simulation, that predicts the structural properties of spheroid-dominated galaxies based on an analytic model that has been tested and calibrated against an extensive suite of hydrodynamic+N-body binary merger simulations. We predict the radius, sigma, luminosity, age, and metallicity of spheroid-dominated galaxies, enabling us to compare directly to observations. Our model predicts a strong correlation between age and sigma for early-type galaxies, and no significant correlation between age and radius, in agreement with observations. In addition we predict a strong correlation between metallicity and sigma, and a weak correlation between metallicity and radius, in qualitative agreement with observations. We find that the correlations with sigma arise as a result of the strong link between sigma and the galaxy assembly time. Minor mergers produce a large change in radius while leaving sigma nearly the same, which explains the weaker trends with radius., Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures, submitted to MNRAS. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1201.5918

We introduce a simple model to self-consistently connect the growth of galaxies to the formation history of their host dark matter haloes. Our model is defined by two simple functions: the "baryonic growth function" which controls the rate at which new baryonic material is made available for star formation, and the "physics function" which controls the efficiency with which this material is converted into stars. Using simple, phenomenologically motivated forms for both functions that depend only on a single halo property, we demonstrate the model's ability to reproduce the z=0 red and blue stellar mass functions. Furthermore, by adding redshift as a second input variable to the physics function we show that the reproduction of the global stellar mass function out to z=3 is improved. We conclude by discussing the general utility of our new model, highlighting its usefulness for creating mock galaxy samples which have a number of key advantages over those generated by other techniques., Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS. New accepted version contains an extended discussion, minor corrections to Table 1 and other small changes/additions. Main results and conclusions are unchanged

Galaxy environment is frequently discussed, but inconsistently defined. It is especially difficult to measure at high redshift where only photometric redshifts are available. With a focus on early forming proto-clusters, we use a semi-analytical model of galaxy formation to show how the environment measurement around high redshift galaxies is sensitive to both scale and metric, as well as to cluster viewing angle, evolutionary state, and the availability of either spectroscopic or photometric data. We use two types of environment metrics (nearest neighbour and fixed aperture) at a range of scales on simulated high-z clusters to see how "observed" overdensities compare to "real" overdensities. We also "observationally" identify z = 2 proto-cluster candidates in our model and track the growth histories of their parent halos through time, considering in particular their final state at z = 0. Although the measured environment of early forming clusters is critically dependent on all of the above effects (and in particular the viewing angle), we show that such clusters are very likely (< 90%) to remain overdense at z = 0, although many will no longer be among the most massive. Object to object comparisons using different methodologies and different data, however, require much more caution., 12 pages, 9 figures, accepted to MNRAS

Higher order statistics are a useful and complementary tool for measuring the clustering of galaxies, containing information on the non-Gaussian evolution and morphology of large-scale structure in the Universe. In this work we present measurements of the three-point correlation function (3PCF) for 187 000 galaxies in the WiggleZ spectroscopic galaxy survey. We explore the WiggleZ 3PCF scale and shape dependence at three different epochs z = 0.35, 0.55 and 0.68, the highest redshifts where these measurements have been made to date. Using N-body simulations to predict the clustering of dark matter, we constrain the linear and non-linear bias parameters of WiggleZ galaxies with respect to dark matter, and marginalize over them to obtain constraints on σ8(z), the variance of perturbations on a scale of 8 h^−1 Mpc and its evolution with redshift. These measurements of σ_8(z), which have 10–20 per cent accuracies, are consistent with the predictions of the Λ cold dark matter concordance cosmology and test this model in a new way.

We place the most robust constraint to date on the scale of the turnover in the cosmological matter power spectrum using data from the WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey. We find this feature to lie at a scale of $k_0=0.0160^{+0.0041}_{-0.0035}$ [h/Mpc] (68% confidence) for an effective redshift of 0.62 and obtain from this the first-ever turnover-derived distance and cosmology constraints: a measure of the cosmic distance-redshift relation in units of the horizon scale at the redshift of radiation-matter equality (r_H) of D_V(z=0.62)/r_H=18.3 (+6.3/-3.3) and, assuming a prior on the number of extra relativistic degrees of freedom $N_{eff}=3$, constraints on the matter density parameter $\Omega_Mh^2=0.136^{+0.026}_{-0.052}$ and on the redshift of matter-radiation equality $z_{eq}=3274^{+631}_{-1260}$. All results are in excellent agreement with the predictions of standard LCDM models. Our constraints on the logarithmic slope of the power spectrum on scales larger than the turnover is bounded in the lower limit with values only as low as -1 allowed, with the prediction of standard LCDM models easily accommodated by our results. Lastly, we generate forecasts for the achievable precision of future surveys at constraining $k_0$, $\Omega_Mh^2$, $z_{eq}$ and $N_{eff}$. We find that BOSS should substantially improve upon the WiggleZ turnover constraint, reaching a precision on $k_0$ of $\pm$9% (68% confidence), translating to precisions on $\Omega_Mh^2$ and $z_{eq}$ of $\pm$10% (assuming a prior $N_{eff}=3$) and on $N_{eff}$ of (+78/-56)% (assuming a prior $\Omega_Mh^2=0.135$). This is sufficient precision to sharpen the constraints on $N_{eff}$ from WMAP, particularly in its upper limit. For Euclid, we find corresponding attainable precisions on $(k_0, \Omega_Mh^2, N_eff)$ of (3,4,+17/-21)%. This represents a precision approaching our forecasts for the Planck Surveyor., Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

We have used deep, HST, near-IR imaging to study the morphological properties of the most massive galaxies at high z, modelling the WFC3/IR H-band images of the ~200 galaxies in the CANDELS-UDS field with 1 10^11 M_sun. We have used both single-Sersic and bulge+disk models, have investigated the errors/biases introduced by uncertainties in the background and the PSF, and have obtained formally-acceptable model fits to >90% of the galaxies. Our results indicate that these massive galaxies at 1 2 the compact bulges display effective radii a factor ~4 smaller than local ellipticals of comparable mass. These trends appear to extend to the bulge components of disk-dominated galaxies, and vice versa. We also find that, while such massive galaxies at low z are bulge-dominated, at 1 2 they are mostly disk-dominated. The majority of the disk-dominated galaxies are actively forming stars, but this is also true for many of the bulge-dominated systems. Interestingly, however, while most of the quiescent galaxies are bulge-dominated, we find that a significant fraction (25-40%) of the most quiescent galaxies have disk-dominated morphologies. Thus, while our results show that the massive galaxy population is undergoing dramatic changes at this crucial epoch, they also suggest that the physical mechanisms which quench star-formation activity are not simply connected to those responsible for the morphological transformation of massive galaxies into present-day giant ellipticals.

The Australian Square Kilometer Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) will revolutionise our knowledge of gas-rich galaxies in the Universe. Here we present predictions for two proposed extragalactic ASKAP neutral hydrogen (HI) emission-line surveys, based on semi-analytic models applied to cosmological N-body simulations. The ASKAP HI All-Sky Survey, known as WALLABY, is a shallow 3 Pi survey (z = 0 - 0.26) which will probe the mass and dynamics of over 600,000 galaxies. A much deeper small-area HI survey, called DINGO, aims to trace the evolution of HI from z = 0 - 0.43, a cosmological volume of 40 million Mpc^3, detecting potentially 100,000 galaxies. The high-sensitivity 30 antenna ASKAP core (diameter ~2 km) will provide an angular resolution of 30 arcsec (at z=0). Our simulations show that the majority of galaxies detected in WALLABY (87.5%) will be resolved. About 5000 galaxies will be well resolved, i.e. more than five beams (2.5 arcmin) across the major axis, enabling kinematic studies of their gaseous disks. This number would rise to 160,000 galaxies if all 36 ASKAP antennas could be used; the additional six antennas provide baselines up to 6 km, resulting in an angular resolution of 10 arcsec. For DINGO this increased resolution is highly desirable to minimise source confusion; reducing confusion rates from a maximum of 10% of sources at the survey edge to 3%. We estimate that the sources detected by WALLABY and DINGO will span four orders of magnitude in total halo mass (from 10^{11} to 10^{15} Msol) and nearly seven orders of magnitude in stellar mass (from 10^{5} to 10^{12} Msol), allowing us to investigate the process of galaxy formation across the last four billion years.

We have made the largest-volume measurement to date of the transition to large-scale homogeneity in the distribution of galaxies. We use the WiggleZ survey, a spectroscopic survey of over 200,000 blue galaxies in a cosmic volume of ~1 (Gpc/h)^3. A new method of defining the 'homogeneity scale' is presented, which is more robust than methods previously used in the literature, and which can be easily compared between different surveys. Due to the large cosmic depth of WiggleZ (up to z=1) we are able to make the first measurement of the transition to homogeneity over a range of cosmic epochs. The mean number of galaxies N(

We perform a joint determination of the distance-redshift relation and cosmic expansion rate at redshifts z = 0.44, 0.6 and 0.73 by combining measurements of the baryon acoustic peak and Alcock-Paczynski distortion from galaxy clustering in the WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey, using a large ensemble of mock catalogues to calculate the covariance between the measurements. We find that D_A(z) = (1205 +/- 114, 1380 +/- 95, 1534 +/- 107) Mpc and H(z) = (82.6 +/- 7.8, 87.9 +/- 6.1, 97.3 +/- 7.0) km/s/Mpc at these three redshifts. Further combining our results with other baryon acoustic oscillation and distant supernovae datasets, we use a Monte Carlo Markov Chain technique to determine the evolution of the Hubble parameter H(z) as a stepwise function in 9 redshift bins of width dz = 0.1, also marginalizing over the spatial curvature. Our measurements of H(z), which have precision better than 7% in most redshift bins, are consistent with the expansion history predicted by a cosmological-constant dark-energy model, in which the expansion rate accelerates at redshift z < 0.7.

The influence of a galaxy's environment on its evolution has been studied and compared extensively in the literature, although differing techniques are often used to define environment. Most methods fall into two broad groups: those that use nearest neighbours to probe the underlying density field and those that use fixed apertures. The differences between the two inhibit a clean comparison between analyses and leave open the possibility that, even with the same data, different properties are actually being measured. In this work we apply twenty published environment definitions to a common mock galaxy catalogue constrained to look like the local Universe. We find that nearest neighbour-based measures best probe the internal densities of high-mass haloes, while at low masses the inter-halo separation dominates and acts to smooth out local density variations. The resulting correlation also shows that nearest neighbour galaxy environment is largely independent of dark matter halo mass. Conversely, aperture-based methods that probe super-halo scales accurately identify high-density regions corresponding to high mass haloes. Both methods show how galaxies in dense environments tend to be redder, with the exception of the largest apertures, but these are the strongest at recovering the background dark matter environment. We also warn against using photometric redshifts to define environment in all but the densest regions. When considering environment there are two regimes: the 'local environment' internal to a halo best measured with nearest neighbour and 'large-scale environment' external to a halo best measured with apertures. This leads to the conclusion that there is no universal environment measure and the most suitable method depends on the scale being probed.

We present measurements of the baryon acoustic peak at redshifts z = 0.44, 0.6 and 0.73 in the galaxy correlation function of the final dataset of the WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey. We combine our correlation function with lower-redshift measurements from the 6-degree Field Galaxy Survey and Sloan Digital Sky Survey, producing a stacked survey correlation function in which the statistical significance of the detection of the baryon acoustic peak is 4.9-sigma relative to a zero-baryon model with no peak. We fit cosmological models to this combined baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) dataset comprising six distance-redshift data points, and compare the results to similar fits to the latest compilation of supernovae (SNe) and Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data. The BAO and SNe datasets produce consistent measurements of the equation-of-state w of dark energy, when separately combined with the CMB, providing a powerful check for systematic errors in either of these distance probes. Combining all datasets we determine w = -1.03 +/- 0.08 for a flat Universe, consistent with a cosmological constant model. Assuming dark energy is a cosmological constant and varying the spatial curvature, we find Omega_k = -0.004 +/- 0.006.

We report evidence of ordered orbital motion in luminous star-forming galaxies at z~1.3. We present integral field spectroscopy (IFS) observations, performed with the OH Suppressing InfraRed Imaging Spectrograph (OSIRIS) system, assisted by laser guide star adaptive optics on the Keck telescope, of 13 star-forming galaxies selected from the WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey. Selected via ultraviolet and [OII] emission, the large volume of the WiggleZ survey allows the selection of sources which have comparable intrinsic luminosity and stellar mass to IFS samples at z>2. Multiple 1-2 kpc size sub-components of emission, or 'clumps', are detected within the Halpha spatial emission which extends over 6-10 kpc in 4 galaxies, resolved compact emission (r 100 km/s) in the most compact sources. This unique data set reveals that the most luminous star-forming galaxies at z>1 are gaseous unstable disks indicating that a different mode of star formation could be feeding gas to galaxies at z>1, and lending support to theories of cold dense gas flows from the intergalactic medium.

There are strong correlations between the three structural properties of elliptical galaxies -- stellar mass, velocity dispersion and size -- in the form of a tight "fundamental plane" and a "scaling relation" between each pair. Major mergers of disk galaxies are assumed to be a mechanism for producing ellipticals, but semi-analytic galaxy formation models (SAM) have encountered apparent difficulties in reproducing the observed slope and scatter of the size-mass relation. We study the scaling relations of merger remnants using progenitor properties from two SAMs. We apply a simple merger model that includes gas dissipation and star formation based on theoretical considerations and simulations. Combining the SAMs and the merger model allows calculation of the structural properties of the remnants of major mergers that enter the population of elliptical galaxies at a given redshift. Without tuning the merger model parameters for each SAM, the results roughly match the slope and scatter in the observed scaling relations and their evolution in the redshift range $z=0-3$. Within this model, the observed scaling relations, including the tilt of the fundamental plane relative to the virial plane, result primarily from the decrease of gas fraction with increasing progenitor mass. The scatter in the size-mass relation of the remnants is reduced from that of the progenitors because of a correlation between progenitor size and gas fraction at a given mass.

We use data drawn from the DEEP2 Galaxy Redshift Survey to investigate the relationship between local galaxy density, stellar mass, and rest-frame galaxy color. At z ~ 0.9, we find that the shape of the stellar mass function at the high-mass (log (M*/Msun) > 10.1) end depends on the local environment, with high-density regions favoring more massive systems. Accounting for this stellar mass-environment relation (i.e., working at fixed stellar mass), we find a significant color-density relation for galaxies with 10.6 1.

We combine SAURON integral field data of a representative sample of local early-type, red sequence galaxies with Spitzer/IRAC imaging in order to investigate the presence of trace star formation in these systems. With the Spitzer data, we identify galaxies hosting low-level star formation, as traced by PAH emission, with measured star formation rates that compare well to those estimated from other tracers. This star formation proceeds according to established scaling relations with molecular gas content, in surface density regimes characteristic of disk galaxies and circumnuclear starbursts. We find that star formation in early-type galaxies happens exclusively in fast-rotating systems and occurs in two distinct modes. In the first, star formation is a diffuse process, corresponding to widespread young stellar populations and high molecular gas content. The equal presence of co- and counter-rotating components in these systems strongly implies an external origin for the star-forming gas, and we argue that these star formation events may be the final stages of (mostly minor) mergers that build up the bulges of red sequence lenticulars. In the second mode of star formation, the process is concentrated into well-defined disk or ring morphologies, outside of which the host galaxies exhibit uniformly evolved stellar populations. This implies that these star formation events represent rejuvenations within previously quiescent stellar systems. Evidence for earlier star formation events similar to these in all fast rotating early-type galaxies suggests that this mode of star formation may be common to all such galaxies, with a duty cycle of roughly 1/10, and likely contributes to the embedded, co-rotating inner stellar disks ubiquitous in this population., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 48 pages, 36 figures. Revision fixes typos, including column headers in Table 2. The revised paper with full resolution figures is available at http://astro.berkeley.edu/~shapiro/Papers/Shapiro_SAURON_PaperXV.pdf

We present a simple model of how quasars occupy dark matter halos from z=0 to z=5 using the observed mBH-sigma relation and quasar luminosity functions. This provides a way for observers to statistically infer host halo masses for quasar observations using luminosity and redshift alone. Our model is deliberately simple and sidesteps any need to explicitly describe the physics. In spite of its simplicity, the model reproduces many key observations and has predictive power: 1) model quasars have the correct luminosity function (by construction) and spatial clustering (by consequence); 2) we predict high redshift quasars of a given luminosity live in less massive dark matter halos than the same luminosity quasars at low redshifts; 3) we predict a factor of ~5 more 10^8.5Msun black holes at z~2 than is currently observed; 4) we predict a factor of ~20 evolution in the amplitude of the mBH-Mhalo relation between z=5 and the present day; 5) we expect luminosity dependent quasar lifetimes of between tQ~10^(7-8)yr, but which may become as short as 10^(5-6)yr for quasars brighter than L*; 6) while little luminosity dependent clustering evolution is expected at zL* quasars at higher redshifts. These last two results arise from the narrowing distribution of halo masses that quasars occupy as the Universe ages. We also deconstruct both "downsizing" and "upsizing" trends predicted by the model at different redshifts and space densities. Importantly, this work illustrates how current observations cannot distinguish between more complicated physically motivated quasar models and our simple phenomenological approach. It highlights the opportunities such methodologies provide., 13 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS. NOTE: the millennium simulation mock quasar catalogues generated for this paper are available for public download at http://web.me.com/darrencroton/Homepage/Quasar.html (16 mocks covering z=5 to z=0)

We explore the behavior of the blue galaxy fraction over the redshift range 0.75, 23 pages, 10 figures. Updated to match version published in MNRAS

The clustering of dark halos depends not only on their mass but also on their assembly history, a dependence we term `assembly bias'. Using a galaxy formation model grafted onto the Millennium Simulation of the LCDM cosmogony, we study how assembly bias affects galaxy clustering. We compare the original simulation to `shuffled' versions where the galaxy populations are randomly swapped among halos of similar mass, thus isolating the effects of correlations between assembly history and environment at fixed mass. Such correlations are ignored in the halo occupation distribution models often used populate dark matter simulations with galaxies, but they are significant in our more realistic simulation. Assembly bias enhances 2-point correlations by 10% for galaxies with M_bJ-5logh brighter than -17, but suppresses them by a similar amount for galaxies brighter than -20. When such samples are split by colour, assembly bias is 5% stronger for red galaxies and 5% weaker for blue ones. Halo central galaxies are differently affected by assembly bias than are galaxies of all types. It almost doubles the correlation amplitude for faint red central galaxies. Shuffling galaxies among halos of fixed formation redshift or concentration in addition to fixed mass produces biases which are not much smaller than when mass alone is fixed. Assembly bias must reflect a correlation of environment with aspects of halo assembly which are not encoded in either of these parameters. It induces effects which could compromise precision measurements of cosmological parameters from large galaxy surveys., Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

We explore the growth of super-massive black holes and host galaxy bulges in the galaxy population using the Millennium Run LCDM simulation coupled with a model of galaxy formation. We find that, if galaxy mergers are the primary drivers for both bulge and black hole growth, then in the simplest picture one should expect the mBH-mbulge relation to evolve with redshift, with a larger black hole mass associated with a given bulge mass at earlier times relative to the present day. This result is independent of an evolving cold gas fraction in the galaxy population. The evolution arises from the disruption of galactic disks during mergers that make a larger fractional mass contribution to bulges at low redshift than at earlier epochs. There is no comparable growth mode for the black hole population. Thus, this effect produces evolution in the mBH-mbulge relation that is driven by bulge mass growth and not by black holes.

We take advantage of the largest high-resolution simulation of cosmic structure growth ever carried out -- the Millennium Simulation of the concordance LambdaCDM cosmogony -- to study how the star formation histories, ages and metallicities of elliptical galaxies depend on environment and on stellar mass. We concentrate on a galaxy formation model which is tuned to fit the joint luminosity/colour/morphology distribution of low redshift galaxies. Massive ellipticals in this model have higher metal abundances, older luminosity-weighted ages, shorter star formation timescales, but lower assembly redshifts than less massive systems. Within clusters the typical masses, ages and metal abundances of ellipticals are predicted to decrease, on average, with increasing distance from the cluster centre. We also quantify the effective number of progenitors of ellipticals as a function of present stellar mass, finding typical numbers below 2 for M* < 10^{11} Msun, rising to about 5 for the most massive systems. These findings are consistent with recent observational results that suggest ``down-sizing'' or ``anti-hierarchical'' behaviour for the star formation history of the elliptical galaxy population, despite the fact that our model includes all the standard elements of hierarchical galaxy formation and is implemented on the standard, LambdaCDM cosmogony., 12 pages, 11 figures, minor revisions, MNRAS accepted

We simulate the growth of galaxies and their central supermassive black holes by implementing a suite of semi-analytic models on the output of the Millennium Run, a very large simulation of the concordance LCDM cosmogony. Our procedures follow the detailed assembly history of each object and are able to track the evolution of all galaxies more massive than the Small Magellanic Cloud throughout a volume comparable to that of large modern redshift surveys. In this first paper we supplement previous treatments of the growth and activity of central black holes with a new model for `radio' feedback from those AGN that lie at the centre of a quasistatic X-ray emitting atmosphere in a galaxy group or cluster. We show that for energetically and observationally plausible parameters such a model can simultaneously explain: (i) the low observed mass drop-out rate in cooling flows; (ii) the exponential cut-off at the bright end of the galaxy luminosity function; and (iii) the fact that the most massive galaxies tend to be bulge-dominated systems in clusters and to contain systematically older stars than lower mass galaxies. This success occurs because static hot atmospheres form only in the most massive structures, and radio feedback (in contrast, for example, to supernova or starburst feedback) can suppress further cooling and star formation without itself requiring star formation. We discuss possible physical models which might explain the accretion rate scalings required for our phenomenological `radio mode' model to be successful., 21 pages, 12 figures, accepted MNRAS, Millennium Run semi-analytic galaxy catalogues are available for download at http://www.mpa-garching.mpg.de/galform/agnpaper (~9 million galaxies brighter than -17.4 in r), mini Millennium Run catalogues also available for testing purposes

In Figure 6 we inadvertently labeled the proxy circular velocity as the virial velocity of the dark matter halo instead of what is actually plotted, the maximum circular velocity of the dark matter halo. The maximum halo circular velocity is a much better estimate of the disk V_c than is V_vir. This confusion influenced the discussion of the Tully-Fisher relation in our paper. In fact, Figure 6 demonstrates that it is possible to simultaneously reproduce both the local Tully-Fisher relation and luminosity function using semi-analytic techniques applied to the standard LCDM cosmology, thus contradicting previous studies of this issue and our own discussion in Section 3.6.